Core Viewpoint - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index declined by 1.4% this week, underperforming the market, with internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine sectors showing better performance [1] Group 1: Market Trends - Since September, the proportion of domestic holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect has remained stable, while foreign holdings have slightly decreased since mid-year [1] - Both domestic and foreign investors continue to increase their positions in innovative pharmaceutical companies, indicating a consistent long-term strategy [1] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Domestic investors are focusing on rebound opportunities, while foreign investors are increasing positions in innovative drug targets with high long-term potential and current cost-effectiveness [1] - The innovative drug guarantee model is gradually taking shape, which is expected to alleviate challenges such as hospital access and reimbursement difficulties for companies [1] Group 3: Upcoming Events - The ESMO conference will be held in mid to late October, and the report suggests focusing on companies like CanSino Biologics (09926), Kelun-Biotech (06990), and Rongchang Biologics (09995) that are expected to release significant data [1] Group 4: Stock Recommendations - The importance of timing and stock selection has increased after a broad rise in the innovative drug sector, with recommendations to gradually build positions during sector pullbacks [1] - Specific recommendations include: 1. Innovative drugs: 3SBio (01530), Eucure Biopharma-B (06996) with rich short-term catalysts and undervalued long-term growth logic [1] 2. CXO: Leaders in high-demand segments benefiting from improved financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec (02268) [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the acceleration of adjustments in medical insurance and commercial insurance directories, suggesting a strategic approach to invest in undervalued quality stocks during market corrections [1][2] - The innovation drug sector is expected to benefit from a gradually forming insurance guarantee model, which may alleviate challenges related to hospital admissions and reimbursement payments [2] Market Review - The Hang Seng Healthcare Index fell by 1.4% this week, underperforming the broader market, while sectors such as internet medicine, CXO, and traditional Chinese medicine showed relatively better performance [1] - Domestic institutional investors maintained stable holdings through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, while foreign investors slightly reduced their positions since mid-year, although both continue to increase their investments in innovative pharmaceutical companies [1] Investment Recommendations - Focus on companies with significant data releases at the upcoming ESMO conference, such as Kangfang Biologics, Kelun-Biotech, and Rongchang Biologics [2] - Suggested investment strategies include gradually positioning in the innovative drug sector during market pullbacks, with specific recommendations for: 1) Innovative drugs: Companies like 3SBio and Eucure Biopharma have rich short-term catalysts and their valuations do not yet reflect the core value of major products [2] 2) CXO: Leaders in this segment are expected to benefit from high downstream demand and improving financing conditions, such as WuXi AppTec [2]

Group 1 - The medical sector in A-shares remains active, with the largest medical ETF (512170) rising over 1% and recovering its 5-day moving average, with a trading volume exceeding 480 million yuan [1] - Major stocks in the medical device and CXO sectors saw significant gains, with Mindray Medical rising over 4% and Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical hitting a daily limit before closing nearly 6% higher [1] - Conversely, companies like Meihua Medical and Yingke Medical experienced notable declines [1] Group 2 - The release of the industry standard for medical devices using brain-computer interface technology on September 18 is expected to promote the standardized application of this technology in the medical field [1][3] - Global brain initiatives are driving the development of brain-computer interface technology, with China's first industry standard establishing a unified technical language for the sector [3] - The Shanghai government has announced an action plan to promote the development of high-end medical devices, aiming to add over 500 Class III medical device registration certificates by 2027 and cultivate two hundred billion-level leading enterprises [3] Group 3 - The medical ETF (512170) passively tracks the CSI Medical Index, with its top ten weighted stocks including WuXi AppTec, Mindray Medical, and others [3] - The medical device sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in the second half of the year due to improvements in anti-corruption measures, centralized procurement, and equipment purchasing [3]

Core Viewpoint - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a significant transformation driven by technological breakthroughs and demographic changes, leading to a shift from a reliance on license-in to license-out strategies, positioning Chinese companies as key players in the global market [2][4][11]. Group 1: Industry Trends - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector is witnessing a surge, with ETFs tracking the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index showing strong performance, indicating a structural change in the industry [1][3]. - Innovation drugs are becoming a major investment theme for 2025, with significant year-to-date gains in related indices, highlighting the leading role of companies like WuXi Biologics and BeiGene [4][5]. - The Chinese pharmaceutical industry now ranks second globally, with approximately 30% of innovative drugs under development worldwide, and a notable increase in the approval rate of new drugs [8][9]. Group 2: Technological Advancements - The advent of CRISPR gene editing and AI technologies is revolutionizing drug development, significantly reducing research and development cycles and enhancing the capabilities of Chinese pharmaceutical companies [2][7]. - The emergence of platform technologies such as ADCs, bispecific antibodies, and cell therapies is opening new avenues for drug development, contributing to the increased competitiveness of domestic biotech products [7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The market is currently experiencing a revaluation of innovative drug companies, with many leading firms turning profitable and their valuations being reassessed positively [7][11]. - The increase in license-out transactions indicates a shift in the global innovation chain, with Chinese companies now accounting for over 51% of the total transaction value in the BD market [11]. Group 4: Policy and Financial Environment - Supportive policies, including stable medical insurance negotiations and expedited drug approval processes, are fostering an environment conducive to innovation [8]. - The easing of monetary policy, including interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is providing a favorable financing environment for biotech companies, further enhancing their growth prospects [8]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The Hang Seng Medical ETF and the Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF are emerging as attractive investment vehicles, providing exposure to core assets in the Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector [3][15]. - The recent restructuring of the Hang Seng Biotechnology Index has improved its focus on leading companies in the biotech field, enhancing its investment appeal [14][15].

Core Viewpoint - The article provides insights into the latest perspectives and recommendations for the pharmaceutical sector, emphasizing the importance of historical context in analyzing the industry and individual stocks [4]. Group 1: Pharmaceutical Sector Insights - The research team at Guotai Junan Securities specializes in analyzing the global pharmaceutical industry over 40 years and the Chinese pharmaceutical industry over 20 years, focusing on a comprehensive view of industry development to identify investment opportunities [4]. - Key discussions are scheduled for various segments of the pharmaceutical industry, including medical devices, innovative drugs, and CXO & upstream sectors, with prominent analysts leading these discussions [5][6][7]. Group 2: Upcoming Events and Recommendations - A series of conference calls are planned from September 22 to September 26, covering different aspects of the pharmaceutical sector, with notable analysts presenting their insights and recommendations [5][6][7]. - The focus will be on recent key recommendations and deep dives into specific stocks, highlighting the ongoing analysis and updates in the pharmaceutical landscape [7].

Core Viewpoint - The pharmaceutical sector in both A-shares and Hong Kong stocks experienced significant declines, particularly in innovative drugs and CXO concepts, despite a slight recovery towards the end of the trading session [1][3]. A-Share Market Summary - The largest medical ETF in A-shares (512170) fell by 1.81%, marking its fourth consecutive decline, with a trading volume increase of over 50% to 846 million yuan [1]. - The pharmaceutical sector remained sluggish, with both innovative drugs and traditional Chinese medicine concepts declining, as evidenced by the only drug ETF (562050) dropping 1.61% for three consecutive days [1]. Hong Kong Market Summary - In the Hong Kong market, the innovative drug ETF (520880) saw a decline of 1.42% after a brief rebound, with a trading volume of 327 million yuan [3]. - Among the 37 constituent stocks of the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF, 31 stocks fell, with the largest drop being 5.12% for Yimeng Biotechnology [3]. Market Dynamics - Despite the downturn, both the A-share medical ETF and the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF are trading at a premium, indicating an influx of capital seeking to buy at lower prices [6]. - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF has attracted nearly 680 million yuan over 14 consecutive trading days from September 2 to 19 [6]. Policy and Industry Outlook - The National Healthcare Security Administration recently released the 11th batch of centralized drug procurement documents, emphasizing quality assurance and reasonable profit margins for pharmaceutical companies [6]. - The fund manager of the Hong Kong innovative drug ETF believes that the new procurement policies will support innovation in the pharmaceutical sector and enhance the industry's profitability [6]. Investment Strategy - The fund manager suggests a potential rotation towards large-cap blue-chip companies in the mid-term, while small-cap companies may lose investor interest if they fail to deliver performance [7]. - A balanced investment approach is recommended, combining innovative drugs with sectors like medical devices and healthcare services [7]. ETF Characteristics - The Hong Kong innovative drug ETF (520880) focuses exclusively on innovative drug research and development, while the medical ETF (512170) includes a broader range of healthcare sectors [8]. - The medical ETF is the largest in the market, with a scale of 26.5 billion yuan, while the drug ETF is the only one tracking the China Pharmaceutical Index [9].

Core Insights - The pharmaceutical industry is experiencing a resurgence driven by innovation, favorable policies, and an aging population, positioning it as a key investment opportunity [2][5][6] Historical Market Review - The pharmaceutical sector has undergone multiple market cycles over the past fifteen years, with significant performance variations influenced by unique driving factors [2] - From 2009 to 2010, the industry saw a substantial rebound due to the "four trillion" policy, resulting in a 148.46% increase in the CSI Pharmaceutical Index, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index's 54.22% rise [2][3] - Between 2013 and 2015, the sector faced stricter regulations, leading to a mixed performance where it did not outperform the ChiNext Index, although new themes like smart healthcare gained traction [3] - The period from 2019 to 2021 was marked by a strong performance driven by the pandemic, with the CXO Index surging 277.13% [3] - In 2024, the pharmaceutical sector faced challenges, with the CSI Pharmaceutical Index declining 14.53%, underperforming the CSI 300 Index [4] Current Investment Value Analysis - The current valuation of the pharmaceutical sector is considered reasonable after prior adjustments, with some indices showing attractive investment metrics [5] - Leading pharmaceutical companies are expected to maintain stable growth due to the commercialization of innovative drugs and steady performance in traditional drug segments [5] - The aging population is projected to drive increased healthcare demand, with 22.0% of the population aged 60 and above by the end of 2024 [5] - There has been a notable inflow of funds into the medical device sector, indicating growing market confidence in certain pharmaceutical sub-sectors [5][6] Policy Environment - The policy focus is shifting from cost control to innovation-driven growth, with reforms in the medical insurance payment system and expedited drug approval processes [6] - The National Medical Insurance Administration plans to expand the medical insurance drug list, which will benefit the industry's innovation and profitability [6] Innovation in Pharmaceuticals - Innovative drugs are becoming the focal point of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry, with significant advancements in areas like oncology and antibody-drug conjugates [7] - The total value of license-out deals for Chinese innovative drugs surpassed $60 billion in the first half of 2025, indicating a strong international presence [7] Investment Participation Strategies - Investors are encouraged to adopt a systematic investment approach to mitigate short-term volatility, as the pharmaceutical sector is characterized by long-term growth potential [9] - Focus on sectors with strong policy support and international expansion opportunities, such as innovative drugs and medical devices, is recommended [9]

Core Viewpoint - The CXO sector is experiencing increased attention due to the recognition of the value of innovative drugs, with CDMO showing strong global demand and domestic leading companies seeing significant order growth driven by commercialization projects [1] Group 1: CDMO Sector - CDMO has confirmed high global demand, with leading domestic companies experiencing a substantial increase in new orders [1] - Some leading companies have already seen improvement trends in orders for 2024 [1] - As projects are delivered, CDMO companies are expected to continue their performance recovery into 2025 [1] Group 2: CRO Sector - The preclinical and clinical CROs primarily focus on domestic business, which has faced temporary pressure from both domestic and international demand [1] - Looking ahead, the CRO sector is anticipated to recover, with some companies showing signs of order inflection in Q2 2025 [1] Group 3: Market Influences - The Federal Reserve's announcement of the first interest rate cut in 2023 on September 17 is expected to lower financing costs for biotech companies, encouraging increased R&D investment and driving new drug development pipelines [1] - This environment is likely to bring more orders to CXO companies that possess strong global competitiveness and order acquisition capabilities [1] Group 4: Investment Opportunities - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Medical ETF (520510) focuses on CXO and AI medical concepts, with holdings in companies like WuXi Biologics, WuXi AppTec, and JD Health, which are expected to benefit from the monetization of CXO commercial orders and the AI technology revolution [1]

Summary of the Conference Call Transcript Industry Overview - **Industry**: China Healthcare - **Key Companies Mentioned**: Akeso, Innovent, Hansoh, BeOne, Simcere, Duality Bio, Leads Bio, GenFleet, CSPC, Sino Biopharm, Mindray Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Investor Focus Areas**: Investors are concentrating on potential licensing-out opportunities, risks associated with potential Executive Orders from the US Administration, and current valuations of biopharma companies [2][3] 2. **Investor Sentiment**: There is a notable interest in Akeso for potential buying opportunities, while BeOne and Simcere are perceived as undervalued [2] 3. **Emerging Companies**: Newer companies like Duality Bio, Leads Bio, and GenFleet are attracting strong interest from investors [2] 4. **Generalist Investors' Participation**: Generalist investors have increased their participation in the healthcare sector year-to-date, with many being equal or overweight relative to the MSCI sector percentage [3] 5. **Caution Among Specialists**: Specialists are becoming more cautious regarding companies driven by business development expectations, particularly CSPC and Sino Biopharm, due to uncertainties around US approvals [4] 6. **Valuation Concerns**: Generalist investors are turning conservative on companies with high business development valuation contributions due to potential restrictions from US Executive Orders [3] 7. **Performance of Core Holdings**: Hengrui and Hansoh are noted for their strong performance as core holdings due to their consistent track record and R&D capabilities [3] Risks and Challenges 1. **Healthcare Industry Risks**: Key risks identified for China's healthcare industry include: - Worse-than-expected price cuts from GPO programs - Intensified competition - Lower-than-expected innovative drug prices negotiated for NRDLs - Slower-than-expected consumption recovery in China - Stricter-than-expected regulatory announcements and implementations - Rising geopolitical tensions affecting operations [6] Additional Insights 1. **Market Dynamics**: Investors are showing interest in relatively inexpensive valuations of CXO and medtech names, looking for potential growth acceleration or recovery [2] 2. **Profit-Taking**: Generalist investors are considering profit-taking on certain names due to difficulties in identifying alpha opportunities in crowded therapeutic areas [3] 3. **IPO Interest**: There is interest in new IPO listings, particularly GenFleet, as investors seek opportunities outside of established names [4] Conclusion The conference call highlighted a cautious yet opportunistic sentiment among investors in the China healthcare sector, with a focus on emerging companies and potential risks stemming from regulatory changes and market dynamics. The overall investor landscape is shifting, with generalist investors becoming more selective and specialists expressing caution regarding business development-driven companies.

Group 1: Market Overview - The market has shown good performance since Q3 2025, with notable sector differentiation [3][4] - Key sectors performing well include technology, pharmaceuticals, new energy, and certain cyclical industries like non-ferrous metals, attributed to their strong fundamentals [4][6] - High dividend sectors like finance and banking have underperformed due to declining dividend yields impacting stock momentum, although they remain good absolute return options [5] Group 2: A-Share Outlook - The outlook for A-shares remains positive for Q4 2025 and 2026, as the Chinese economy is gradually recovering from previous pressures [6][8] - Sectors such as AI-driven technology, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new consumption are showing significant market movements, indicating improving fundamentals [6][8] - Cyclical and consumer sectors, while currently lagging, are expected to recover as the economy improves, making them attractive for future investment [7][8] Group 3: Hong Kong Market Drivers - The Hong Kong market has benefited from three main factors: valuation recovery, confidence restoration, and a shift in global monetary policy [11][12] - Valuation recovery is driven by improved earnings from major internet companies, while confidence has been bolstered by technological advancements and successful innovations [12] - The shift in global monetary policy, particularly the anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, is expected to favor emerging markets, including Hong Kong [12][20] Group 4: Sector Focus in Hong Kong - Future investment opportunities in Hong Kong will focus on technology, internet, pharmaceuticals, and consumer sectors [14] - The internet sector is expected to see improved profitability and attractiveness due to reduced policy uncertainties and increased foreign investment [14] - Emerging consumer trends in areas like trendy products, new tea drinks, and beauty care are projected to maintain high growth rates, making them appealing investment targets [14] Group 5: Economic and Policy Considerations - The U.S. Federal Reserve is likely to lower interest rates further, potentially bringing the federal funds rate down to 3% to 3.5% [20] - Short-term U.S. Treasury yields may have room to decline, while long-term yields face upward pressure due to uncertainties and fiscal deficits [21] - Emerging markets, particularly in Asia, are expected to show strong growth, driven by local demand and improved fiscal conditions, making them attractive for investment [22]