1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts brings significant delivery pressure to the futures market. Although industrial silicon shows obvious short - term rebound signs, if the prices of downstream aluminum alloy and polysilicon cannot rebound, the price rebound of industrial silicon may end. It is recommended to adopt a short - selling strategy in the medium to long term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7,415 yuan/ton, down 60 yuan; the position volume of the main contract is 155,627 lots, down 21,965 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 42,729 lots, down 11,934 lots; the warehouse receipts of GZEE are 59,252 lots, down 927 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is - 5, down 5 [2] 3.2现货市场 - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8,150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8,700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 735 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the spot price of DMC is 11,240 yuan/ton, down 500 yuan [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1,760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1,850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4产业情况 - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5下游情况 - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,200 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the overseas price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kg; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6行业消息 - On the evening of June 9, Hesheng Silicon Industry (603260) issued a statement to refute market rumors, saying it will take legal measures against those spreading false rumors. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. In terms of industrial silicon supply, although Yunnan and Sichuan are approaching the wet season with potential electricity cost advantages, the southwest region shows no strong willingness to resume production [2] 3.7观点总结 - The downstream of industrial silicon is mainly in organic silicon, polysilicon, and aluminum alloy. In the organic silicon market, prices are flat, and production cuts have had some results but drag on industrial silicon demand. In the polysilicon sector, mainstream enterprises are cutting production, and the overall industry is running at a reduced load, with downstream prices falling, also dragging on industrial silicon demand. In the aluminum alloy field, there is some demand support from the consumer electronics and automotive industries, but enterprises replenish inventory as needed, with inventory increasing, prices weakening, and being in a passive de - stocking state, difficult to drive industrial silicon demand [2] 3.8重点关注 - There is no news today [2]

2025年06月10日 期货研究 商 品 研 究 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：伦铜现货走强，支撑价格 | 5 | | 铝：横盘震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：社库累库，价格承压下行 | 9 | | 铅：短期供需双弱，中期偏多 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：矿价企稳，偏弱震荡延续 | 15 | | 工业硅：上行空间有限，以逢高空配为主 | 17 | | 多晶硅：盘面以空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：震荡反复 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：需求预期走弱，低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - The silicon market is experiencing a situation of weak supply and demand, with high inventory pressure in the industry. The silicon price rebounded due to a false rumor of a major company's equity sale, and it is expected to decline again, but the subsequent downward space may be limited [1]. - The fundamentals of the polysilicon market are weak, with the transaction price moving down. Considering the high uncertainty of terminal installation and the short - term difficulty in solving the over - capacity problem, it is expected that the polysilicon price will not show an upward trend in the short term, and the strategy is to short on rebounds [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Industrial Silicon - **Price Changes**: The average price of industrial silicon's不通氧553 (East China) remained flat at 8,100 yuan/ton, and the 421 (East China) also remained flat at 8,700 yuan/ton. The futures main contract closing price rose 2.54% to 7,475 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Some silicon enterprises in the north reduced production due to cost - price inversion. In the southwest, although the flood season is approaching, enterprises lack confidence in the future, with overall high hesitation, low willingness to resume production, and overall production decline [1]. - **Demand Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and the resumption of production may be postponed. The organic silicon industry has a strong willingness to reduce production and support prices, but demand is weak, and the actual transaction price has declined. Silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase as needed, and the downstream's willingness to stock up at low levels is insufficient [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The silicon market has weak supply and demand, and high inventory pressure. After the false rumor is confirmed, the silicon price is expected to decline again, but the downward space is limited. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach and continuously monitor the production dynamics of silicon enterprises [1]. Polysilicon - **Price Changes**: The price of N - type dense material remained flat at 35.5 yuan/kg, the polysilicon re - feeding material price remained flat at 33.5 yuan/kg, and the futures main contract closing price fell 1.83% to 34,105 yuan/ton [1]. - **Supply Side**: Polysilicon enterprises maintained a production - reduction trend, and some factories may have new capacity put into production, with the expected output within 100,000 tons [1]. - **Demand Side**: The photovoltaic market is weak, with rising inventories of silicon wafers and polysilicon, continuously falling prices of silicon wafers, battery cells, and components, slow market demand, and weak market transactions [1]. - **Investment Strategy**: The fundamentals are weak, and the polysilicon price is expected to have no upward trend in the short term. The strategy is to short on rebounds, and continuously monitor the changes on the supply side [1]. Other Information - The Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main - structure construction stage, with a planned annual production capacity of 100,000 tons [1]. - Hesheng Silicon Industry denied rumors of a planned equity transfer [1].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - Industrial silicon: The upside potential is limited, and it is recommended to short on rallies [1] - Polysilicon: It is recommended to short on the futures market [1] Group 2: Core Views - The trend strength of industrial silicon and polysilicon is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [3] Group 3: Summary of Key Data Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon Futures Market - Si2507: The closing price is 7,475 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 539,994 lots and an open interest of 177,663 lots [1] - PS2507: The closing price is 34,105 yuan/ton, with a trading volume of 123,726 lots and an open interest of 64,383 lots [1] Basis and Price - Industrial silicon: The spot premium against different benchmarks varies, and prices in different regions have declined over different time periods [1] - Polysilicon: The N-type refeed material price is 36,500 yuan/ton, showing a decline compared to a month ago [1] Profit - Silicon plant profit: In Xinjiang and Yunnan, it remains in the negative range, with some changes over time [1] - Polysilicon enterprise profit: It is -4.7 yuan/kg, showing a certain degree of change [1] Inventory - Industrial silicon: Social, enterprise, and industry inventories show different trends, and the futures warehouse receipt inventory has decreased [1] - Polysilicon: The manufacturer's inventory is 26.9 tons, with a slight change [1] Raw Material Cost - Various raw materials such as silicon ore, washed coal, petroleum coke, and electrodes have price changes in different regions [1] Other Related Industries - Organic silicon: DMC price and enterprise profit have changed [1] - Aluminum alloy: ADC12 price and recycled aluminum enterprise profit have changed [1] Group 4: Macro and Industry News - On June 5, the Inner Mongolia Xingfa industrial silicon project entered the main structure construction stage after the successful first steel structure hoisting of the 1 smelting workshop, with a total investment of nearly 1.5 billion yuan [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Report's Core View - The total demand for industrial silicon from its three major downstream industries is showing a downward trend. The large number of warehouse receipts has brought great delivery pressure to the market. It is recommended to adopt a high - short strategy in the medium - and long - term [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract is 7475 yuan/ton, up 185 yuan; the position of the main contract is 177,592 lots, with a change of - 736 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 37,782 lots, down 4,899 lots; the warehouse receipts of GEX are 60,573 lots; the price difference between the July - August contracts is 0, up 25 [2] 3.2 Spot Market - The average price of oxygen - passing 553 silicon is 8150 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of 421 silicon is 8700 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of the Si main contract is 675 yuan/ton, down 185 yuan; the DMC spot price is 11,740 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average price of silica is 410 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of petroleum coke is 1760 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of clean coal is 1850 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of wood chips is 540 yuan/ton; the ex - factory price of graphite electrodes (400mm) is 12,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, down 36,050 tons; the weekly social inventory of industrial silicon is 587,000 tons, down 2,000 tons; the monthly import volume of industrial silicon is 2,211.36 tons, up 71.51 tons; the monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, down 12,197.89 tons [2] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The weekly output of organic silicon DMC is 38,700 tons, down 200 tons; the average price of aluminum alloy ADC12 in the Yangtze River spot is 20,300 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan; the weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kilogram; the overseas market price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 15.75 US dollars/kilogram, unchanged; the monthly export volume of unforged aluminum alloy is 16,555.02 tons, down 1,621.87 tons; the weekly operating rate of organic silicon DMC is 58.67%, down 0.53 percentage points; the monthly output of aluminum alloy is 1.528 million tons, down 127,000 tons; the monthly export volume of aluminum alloy is 20,187.85 tons, down 337.93 tons [2] 3.6 Industry News - The second - phase project of silicone rubber of Hubei Zheng'an New Materials Co., Ltd. was put into production at the beginning of the year and has officially entered the production stage. The state is increasing investment in long - term data infrastructure construction. With the approaching of the wet season, Yunnan and Sichuan are gradually entering the wet season, but the south - west region has no intention to resume work [2]

| 然橡胶产业期现日报 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可【2011】1292号 2025年6月9日 | | | | 寇帝斯 | Z0021810 | | 现货价格及基差 | | | | | | | 能 | 6月6日 | 6月5日 | 活美 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 云南国营全乳胶(SCRWF):上海 | 13750 | 13550 | 200 | 1.48% | | | 全乳基差(切换至2509合约) | 100 | 5 | વેર | 1900.00% | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 泰标混合胶报价 | 13500 | 13600 | -100 | -0.74% | | | 非标价差 | -150 | રેર | -205 | -372.73% | | | 品中 | 6月6日 | 6月5日 | 流铁 | 涨跌幅 | 电视 | | 杯股:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 44.90 | 44.70 | 0.20 | 0.45% | 泰铢/公斤 | | 胶水:国际市场:FOB中间价 | 56.00 | ...

2025年06月09日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报 观点与策略 | 黄金：非农小幅超预期 | 3 | | --- | --- | | 白银：技术突破 | 3 | | 铜：美元回升，限制价格上涨 | 5 | | 铝：区间震荡 | 7 | | 氧化铝：继续下行 | 7 | | 锌：上方偏承压 | 9 | | 铅：低位运行 | 10 | | 锡：止跌回升 | 11 | | 镍：现实支撑与弱势预期博弈，镍价震荡运行 | 13 | | 不锈钢：负反馈传导减产增加，钢价区间震荡 | 13 | | 碳酸锂：短期进口减量，长期供需过剩，震荡 | 15 | | 工业硅：情绪见顶，盘面具备下行动能 | 17 | | 多晶硅：现货具备下跌驱动，盘面空配为主 | 17 | | 铁矿石：预期反复，宽幅震荡 | 19 | | 螺纹钢：低位震荡 | 20 | | 热轧卷板：低位震荡 | 20 | | 硅铁：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 锰硅：宽幅震荡 | 22 | | 焦炭：三轮提降落地，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 焦煤：事故扰动，宽幅震荡 | 24 | | 动力煤：需求仍待释放，宽幅震荡 | 26 | | 原木：震荡反复 | 27 | | ...

周度报告—工业硅/多晶硅 估值低位易受扰动，基本面仍待改善 | [T走ab势le_评R级an：k] | 工业硅：震荡/多晶硅：震荡 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 报告日期： | 2025 | 年 | 6 | 月 | 8 | 日 | [★Ta工bl业e_硅Summary] 6 月四川进入丰水期，部分硅厂陆续复产。云南 7 月进入丰水 期，由于电价没有明确给予优惠，因此大部分硅厂仍处于观望 状态。需求端仍无明显起色。盘面快速下跌后，硅厂惜售，期 现手中的货源出货情况较好，但硅厂惜售也导致工厂库存不断 累积，不排除库存压力下部分硅厂仍将降价出货。目前盘面价 格几乎跌破全行业现金成本线，后续关注供给的进一步变化。 ★多晶硅 有 色 金 属 节后现货成交较少，采购方压价情绪强烈，而一线硅料厂仍在 挺价，导致双方处于僵持状态，二三线料厂前期价格有所下 移。6 月硅料排产上调至 9.6 万吨，单月仍有望去库 1 万吨左 右。前期下游备货使得原材料库存变动较大，但备货主力仍为 前期原材料库存较高的几家硅片厂，其余硅片厂无太多原材料 囤货。下 ...

有色早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/06/06 铜 ： 日期 沪铜现货 升贴水 废精铜 价差 上期所 库存 沪铜 仓单 现货进口 盈利 三月进口 盈利 保税库 premium 提单 premium 伦铜 C-3M LME 库存 LME 注销仓单 2025/05/29 145 564 98671 32165 -810.64 212.82 89.0 105.0 51.57 152375 74450 2025/05/30 175 665 105791 34128 -778.22 155.91 86.0 100.0 50.08 149875 74850 2025/06/03 215 1019 105791 31404 -652.82 409.92 85.0 100.0 52.31 143850 74375 2025/06/04 130 945 105791 31933 -863.51 389.51 81.0 98.0 48.48 141350 75025 2025/06/05 80 805 105791 31687 -1366.56 279.74 79.0 98.0 93.15 138000 83300 变化 -5 ...

新能源及有色金属日报 | 2025-06-06 商品情绪好转，需注意空单止盈平仓引发风险 工业硅： 市场分析 2025-06-05，工业硅期货价格偏弱震荡，主力合约2507开于7200元/吨，最后收于7135元/吨，较前一日结算变化（-40） 元/吨，变化（-0.56）%。截止收盘，2505主力合约持仓183965手，2025-06-06仓单总数为61309手，较前一日变化 -494手。 供应端：工业硅现货价格持稳。据SMM数据，昨日华东通氧553#硅在8000-8300（0）元/吨；421#硅在8400-9200 （-50）元/吨，新疆通氧553价格7500-7700（0）元/吨，99硅价格在7500-7700（0）元/吨。 SMM统计6月5日工业硅主要地区社会库存共计58.7万吨，较上周环比减少0.2万吨。其中社会普通仓库13.5万吨， 较上周环比增加0.1万吨，社会交割仓库45.2万吨（含未注册成仓单及现货部分），较上周环比减少0.3万吨。 消费端：据SMM统计，有机硅DMC报价11300-11600（0）元/吨。SMM报道，本周国内DMC报价11300-11600元/ 吨，均价较上周小幅下降50元/吨 ...