Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, industrial silicon fluctuated weakly. The main reasons were the cooling of domestic anti - involution sentiment, the decline of the polysilicon futures price after a peak, and the negative growth of China's industrial enterprise profit growth rate again. The supply side remained in passive contraction, while the demand side showed mixed trends. The social inventory of industrial silicon decreased slightly, and the spot market weakened gradually [2][6][10]. - Overall, Sino - US trade may start a new round of talks. The cooling of anti - involution sentiment and the negative profit growth of industrial enterprises in July dragged down the sentiment of the industrial product market. Technically, there was strong resistance at the 9000 level on the futures price chart, and the willingness of funds to enter the market was not strong after the cooling of anti - involution sentiment. It was expected that the futures price would have a risk of further correction in the short term [3][10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data | Contract | Price on Aug 29 | Price on Aug 22 | Change | Change Rate | Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Industrial silicon main contract | 8390.00 | 8745.00 | - 355.00 | - 4.06% | Yuan/ton | | Oxygen - containing 553 spot | 9050.00 | 9250.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.16% | Yuan/ton | | Non - oxygen - containing 553 spot | 8950.00 | 9050.00 | - 100.00 | - 1.10% | Yuan/ton | | 421 spot | 9400.00 | 9600.00 | - 200.00 | - 2.08% | Yuan/ton | | 3303 spot | 10300.00 | 10550.00 | - 250.00 | - 2.37% | Yuan/ton | | Organic silicon DMC spot | 10750.00 | 10750.00 | 0.00 | 0.00% | Yuan/ton | | Polysilicon dense material spot | 47.00 | 46.00 | 1.00 | 2.17% | Yuan/ton | | Industrial silicon social inventory | 54.1 | 54.3 | - 0.2 | - 0.37% | Ten thousand tons | [4] Market Analysis and Outlook - **Macro aspect**: In July, the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in China decreased by 1.5% year - on - year, and from January to July, the cumulative decline was 1.7%. However, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries grew rapidly, with a significant leading role. In July, the profits of high - tech manufacturing industries turned from a 0.9% decline in June to an 18.9% increase, driving the profit growth rate of all industrial enterprises above designated size to accelerate by 2.9 percentage points compared with June [7]. - **Supply - demand aspect**: As of August 28, the weekly output of industrial silicon was 90,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.25% and a year - on - year decrease of 4.7%. The number of open furnaces in the three major production areas of industrial silicon remained at 293, and the overall furnace - opening rate rose slightly to 36.8%. In terms of demand, polysilicon trading was frequent at the end of August, with increased trading volume and significantly reduced inventory. Due to industry self - discipline, the production schedule in September would continue to decline. Small - scale silicon wafer enterprises sold goods at low prices to reduce inventory pressure, while large - scale enterprises increased their demand for silicon material procurement. Photovoltaic cells followed the raw material price and rose slightly. The market preference for large - size and high - efficiency battery cells increased, and the supply of relevant enterprises was tight, but the terminal demand did not improve significantly. The component price increased slightly, with continuous strengthening cost support, but still needed to compete for downstream market orders to maintain production, and the competition pattern was fierce. The distributed projects faced the dilemma of declining yields, and it was expected that the photovoltaic terminal market would face the dilemma of shrinking demand under the influence of anti - involution policies, which would drag down the industrial silicon futures price and limit its rebound space [8]. - **Inventory aspect**: As of August 29, the national social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2,000 tons. The increase in social inventory was mainly due to weak demand in the off - season. As of August 22, the registered warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to rise to 50,453 lots, totaling 252,000 tons. After the exchange issued a new standard for delivery products, most of the 4 - series brand warehouse receipts could not be re - registered due to excessive titanium content, while the 5 - series warehouse receipts that met the new delivery standard were actively registered and stored, becoming a new source of warehouse receipt inventory. Currently, the number of 5 - series warehouse receipts registered and stored was increasing day by day. The warehouse receipt inventory had remained at around 50,000 tons recently because the production reduction expectations of enterprises were continuously strengthened under the call of the photovoltaic industry to actively respond to the national anti - involution policy [9]. Industry News - On August 25, the Guizhou Provincial Development and Reform Commission released an announcement on publicly soliciting opinions on the "Implementation Plan (Trial) for Deepening the Market - Oriented Reform of New Energy On - grid Electricity Prices in Guizhou Province". The document clarified the electricity volume scale, mechanism electricity price, and implementation period of the new energy sustainable development price settlement mechanism [11]. - The photovoltaic enterprises' plan to list in Hong Kong reached a small peak this month. After Yingfa Ruineng, the third - largest battery cell manufacturer, announced on August 20 that it had submitted a listing application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, another leading company in the photovoltaic and energy storage field, Sungrow Power Supply Co., Ltd. (300274.SZ), also announced today that it was planning to issue H - shares and list on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange. Its semi - annual report showed that in the first half of the year, the company achieved an operating income of 43.533 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 40.34%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of the listed company of 7.735 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 55.97%. The increase in overseas market revenue was considered an important reason for the profit growth. During the reporting period, the company achieved an overseas revenue (including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan, China) of 25.379 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 88.32%, accounting for 58.30% of the total revenue. In the same period of the previous year, the overseas market revenue accounted for 43.44%. During the reporting period, the global demand for photovoltaic and energy storage markets continued to grow steadily. According to third - party data, the global newly - added photovoltaic installed capacity was 310 GWac, a year - on - year increase of 60%, and the major global photovoltaic markets maintained a growth trend, with emerging markets performing prominently. In terms of energy storage, driven by factors such as the further increase in the global renewable energy penetration rate, continuous cost reduction, and gradual improvement of the revenue mechanism, the global energy storage demand continued to maintain a high - growth trend. According to third - party data, the global lithium - ion energy storage installed capacity reached 109 GWh, a year - on - year increase of 68% [12].

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Military Support - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that multiple European countries are developing specific plans to send troops to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - A multinational force led by Europe, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands, is being discussed, with the U.S. providing support in command, control systems, intelligence, and surveillance [1] - The EU is exploring new financing channels to provide sustainable funding for the Ukrainian military, including a €150 billion arms procurement fund for joint production with Ukrainian defense companies [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Trends - Industrial silicon futures continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 8390 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 4.06% [7] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakening market confidence and basic supply-demand pressures, with increased production from the northwest region [7][8] - Social inventory of industrial silicon decreased to 541,000 tons, indicating a trend of destocking in the market [9]

Group 1: Ukraine Conflict and Military Support - The European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen stated that multiple European countries are developing specific plans to send troops to Ukraine after the end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, as part of security guarantees for Ukraine [1] - A multinational force led by Europe, potentially numbering in the tens of thousands, is being discussed, with the U.S. providing support in command control systems, intelligence, and surveillance [1] - The EU is exploring new financing channels to provide sustainable funding for the Ukrainian military, including a €150 billion arms procurement fund for joint production with Ukrainian defense companies [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Market Trends - Industrial silicon futures continued to decline, with the main contract closing at 8390 yuan/ton, a weekly drop of 4.06% [5] - The decline in industrial silicon prices is attributed to weakening market confidence and basic supply-demand pressures, as well as a decrease in macroeconomic sentiment [5][6] - The operating rate of metal silicon enterprises increased to 36.8%, with a notable rise in production from the northwest region [6] - Despite concerns about potential demand reduction due to price increases, the current demand from the polysilicon sector remains stable, with production expected to exceed 130,000 tons in August [6][7] - The overall market is experiencing a destocking trend, with social inventory decreasing to 541,000 tons [7] - Future price trends for industrial silicon may face downward pressure due to increased supply and potential demand reduction from downstream polysilicon production [7]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - The Jackson Hole Global Central Bank Annual Meeting saw the Fed Chair's dovish stance, increasing the certainty of a September rate cut, but short - term leveraged funds flowing in too quickly pose risks to the stock index, which may face a slight shock adjustment [3]. - The bond market lacks its own drivers, and its sentiment is significantly suppressed by the equity market. It is in a range - bound state, and the short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates [3]. - The dovish attitude of Fed officials continues to suppress the US dollar, and precious metals are strengthening and approaching the upper limit of the fluctuation range [3]. - The EC main contract of the container shipping index (European line) shows a weak trend [3]. - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and iron ore follows steel prices, with a trading range of 770 - 820 [3]. - Copper prices have weak short - term drivers and are in a narrow - range shock [3]. - The supply and demand pressure of PX is not large, but the short - term driver is limited; PTA is under short - term pressure in a weak market atmosphere, but the supply - demand expectation is tight [3]. - The inventory of bottle chips has decreased, and it follows the raw materials, with limited short - term processing fee upward space [3]. - The overseas supply outlook for sugar is relatively loose, and the short - selling position should be held [3]. - The issuance of sliding - scale tax quotas for cotton is lower than expected, and the 01 contract is short - term strong [3]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Stock Index - The current basis rates of the main contracts of IF, IH, IC, and IM are 0.05%, 0.06%, - 0.36%, and - 0.67% respectively. The technology main line strongly pulled up, and the stock index reversed intraday. It is recommended to wait until after the earnings report disclosure in September to decide the next - round direction [3]. Treasury Bonds - The stock market is strong, and the bond market sentiment is weak again, in a range - bound state. The short - term 10 - year Treasury active bond yield around 1.8% may be a resistance level for the upward movement of interest rates, corresponding to support for the T2512 contract around 107.4 - 107.6. The short - term bond futures can be temporarily on the sidelines [3]. Precious Metals - Gold is in a shock - strengthening trend. Hold the bull spread strategy of buying gold option AIU2512C776 and selling AU2512C792; hold the long position of silver [3]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The EC main contract shows a weak trend. Short the 12 - contract on rallies [3]. Steel and Black Metals - Steel prices are in a weak decline, and it is recommended to wait and see. Iron ore follows steel prices, with a range of 770 - 820, and a strategy of long iron ore and short coking coal can be adopted. Coking coal and coke can be short - sold on rallies, and long iron ore and short coke/coal strategies can be used [3]. Non - ferrous Metals - Copper prices are in a narrow - range shock, with a reference range of 78000 - 80000. Aluminum should pay attention to whether the peak - season demand can be fulfilled, with a reference range of 20400 - 21000 and pay attention to the 21000 pressure level [3]. Energy and Chemicals - For PX, pay attention to the support around 6800 and look for low - buying opportunities; for PTA, pay attention to the support around 4750 and look for low - buying opportunities, and adopt a rolling reverse spread strategy for TA1 - 5 [3]. Agricultural Products - Short - sell sugar. Cotton's 01 contract is short - term strong. Eggs are still bearish in the long - term, and short positions should be held [3]. Special Commodities - For glass, the previous short positions can be closed out at a stage. For rubber, if the raw material supply increases smoothly, short on rallies [3]. New Energy - For polysilicon, wait and see. For lithium carbonate, mainly wait and see [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Carbonate Lithium**: The spot price of carbonate lithium is falling, and the futures price has also dropped significantly. The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected. The price is still hard to stabilize, and it is recommended to seize hedging opportunities [2][5]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The supply is steadily increasing, while the demand is weak. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the spot price is expected to continue to operate weakly and stably. The futures price is in a confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations, and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [6]. - **Polysilicon**: There is a confrontation between strong policy expectations and weak reality, and the support of policy expectations has weakened. The demand is weak, but the spot price has not changed yet. It is recommended to wait and see, and aggressive investors can consider participating with a stop - loss [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 First Part: Spot Price 3.1.1 Plate Strategy Recommendation | Variety | Market Logic | Support Level | Pressure Level | Market Judgment | Reference Strategy | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium 11 | Driven by news | 72,000 - 75,000 | 88,000 - 90,000 | Wide - range volatile operation | Seize selling hedging opportunities, downstream cathode material enterprises focus on low - level stockpiling or buying hedging [15] | | Industrial Silicon 11 | Confrontation between weak reality and strong policy expectations | 8,200 - 8,300 | 8,900 - 9,000 | Range - bound oscillation | Adopt a range - bound thinking, and it is more recommended to sell slightly out - of - the - money put options at low levels [15] | | Polysilicon 11 | Insufficient support from policy expectations, increasing concerns about weak demand reality | 45,000 - 46,000 | 52,000 - 53,000 | High - level oscillation | Wait and see [15] | 3.1.2 Futures and Spot Price Changes | Variety | Closing Price | Increase/Decrease Rate | Trading Volume | Open Interest | Open Interest Change | Warehouse Receipts | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Carbonate Lithium | 78,140 | - 0.91% | 805,585 | 347,063 | - 4,259 | 28,957 | | Industrial Silicon | 8,570 | 0.53% | 293,193 | 273,754 | - 1,804 | 50,656 | | Polysilicon | 49,665 | - 0.10% | 376,304 | 143,912 | - 10,625 | 6,880 | [16] 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Carbonate Lithium Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: This week, the production of carbonate lithium was 19,030 tons, a decrease of 108 tons from the previous week. The total sample inventory was 141,136 tons, a decrease of 407 tons. The supply reduction speed has slowed down, and the inventory decline rate is slower than expected [2]. - **Downstream Situation**: The "Golden September and Silver October" traditional peak season is approaching, and downstream demand has certain rigid support. After the rapid increase in downstream inventory, the probability of further large - scale replenishment may decrease [2]. 3.2.2 Industrial Silicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: The supply is steadily increasing, and the industry operating rate has recovered to over 60%. The inventory is difficult to decrease, and the exchange warehouse receipts increased last week [6]. - **Downstream Situation**: Downstream demand is weak. The demand for polysilicon is mainly for rigid procurement, the demand for organic silicon is weak, and the aluminum alloy is in the traditional off - season. Although the export of industrial silicon is increasing, it has limited impact on the overall demand [6]. 3.2.3 Polysilicon Fundamental Data - **Production and Inventory Situation**: No specific production and inventory data are provided, but it is mentioned that the battery cell inventory has increased for two consecutive weeks [9]. - **Downstream Situation**: The new photovoltaic installed capacity has declined significantly since June, and domestic installation projects have been postponed. The overseas stocking window for battery cells is coming to an end, and the demand is weak [9].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - Yesterday, the overall atmosphere in the commodity market was positive, with the prices of finished steel products rebounding slightly. However, the demand for finished products remained weak, and the profit of steel mills was gradually shrinking. If the demand cannot improve effectively in the future, the prices may continue to decline. The raw material side was more resilient than the finished product side. It is recommended to continuously track the progress of terminal demand recovery and the support of the cost side for the prices of finished products [4]. - The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment in the market. It is necessary to be vigilant against the possibility of short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities during the repeated fluctuations [11]. - The prices of industrial silicon are expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market is in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation", and the price is fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47000 yuan/ton [16][17]. - In the short term, glass is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it follows the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space is limited [19][20]. Summary by Directory Steel - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the rebar main contract was 3129 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton (0.578%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 191,057 tons, a net increase of 6730 tons. The position of the main contract was 1.148167 million lots, a net decrease of 86,597 lots. The closing price of the hot - rolled coil main contract was 3385 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan/ton (1.074%) from the previous trading day. The registered warehouse receipts were 24,760 tons, a net decrease of 596 tons. The position of the main contract was 778,904 lots, a net decrease of 75,256 lots [3]. - **Market Analysis**: The export volume increased slightly this week but remained in a weak and volatile pattern. The production of rebar increased, the demand improved slightly but remained weak, and the inventory continued to accumulate. For hot - rolled coils, both supply and demand declined, and the inventory continued to increase. The overall production of steel was high, while the demand was insufficient, and the steel prices were severely suppressed [4]. Iron Ore - **Price and Position Data**: The main contract of iron ore (I2601) closed at 790.50 yuan/ton, with a change of +1.93% (+15.00), and the position increased by 17,754 lots to 472,500 lots. The weighted position was 804,600 lots. The spot price of PB fines at Qingdao Port was 781 yuan/wet ton, with a basis of 39.63 yuan/ton and a basis ratio of 4.77% [6]. - **Market Analysis**: The overseas iron ore shipping rhythm was stable. The shipping volume from Australia increased, while that from Brazil declined. The near - end arrival volume decreased. The daily average pig iron output decreased due to the maintenance of some blast furnaces in North China. The profitability of steel mills continued to decline. The port inventory decreased slightly, and the inventory of imported ore in steel mills also decreased. The price of raw materials was strong, and the finished product fundamentals were relatively weak. The iron ore price was expected to be volatile in the short term [7]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Price and Position Data**: On August 28, the main contract of manganese silicon (SM601) fluctuated and closed up 0.17% at 5842 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5700 yuan/ton, with a premium of 48 yuan/ton over the futures price. The main contract of ferrosilicon (SF511) fluctuated slightly lower and closed down 0.18% at 5624 yuan/ton. The spot price in Tianjin was 5800 yuan/ton, with a premium of 176 yuan/ton over the futures price [9][10]. - **Market Analysis**: The prices of ferroalloys dropped rapidly due to the weakening of the "anti - involution" sentiment. The polysilicon price was resistant to decline, and the coking coal price rebounded after a coal mine accident. It is necessary to be vigilant against the short - term repeated fluctuations in commodity sentiment. It is not recommended for speculative funds to participate excessively in the short term, while hedging funds can seize hedging opportunities. The over - supply situation of manganese silicon remained unchanged, and the supply of ferrosilicon also continued to increase [11][12]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Price and Position Data**: The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon (SI2511) was 8570 yuan/ton, with a change of +0.53% (+45). The weighted contract position decreased by 7663 lots to 509,097 lots. The spot price of 553 non - oxygen - permeable industrial silicon in East China was 9100 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon (PS2511) was 49,665 yuan/ton, with a change of +2.00% (+975). The weighted contract position decreased by 13,234 lots to 321,342 lots [14][16]. - **Market Analysis**: The over - capacity, high inventory, and insufficient demand of industrial silicon remained unchanged. The production of industrial silicon increased, and the support of the demand side for prices was limited. The price was expected to fluctuate within the range of 8300 - 9300 yuan/ton. The polysilicon market was in a pattern of "weak reality, strong expectation". The price was affected by news and was fluctuating and adjusting, with a support level at 47,000 yuan/ton [15][17]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price and Inventory Data**: The spot price of glass in Shahe was 1134 yuan, down 4 yuan from the previous day, and the price in Central China was 1070 yuan, unchanged from the previous day. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 62.566 million weight boxes, a net decrease of 1.04 million weight boxes (-1.63% month - on - month, -11.31% year - on - year). The spot price of soda ash was 1205 yuan, up 5 yuan from the previous day. The total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8675 million tons, a net decrease of 20,600 tons (a decrease of 1.09%) [19][20]. - **Market Analysis**: The glass market had a strong wait - and - see sentiment, and the price adjusted slightly. In the short term, it was expected to fluctuate weakly, and the valuation should not be overly underestimated. In the long run, it followed the macro - sentiment. The price of soda ash was expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the price center may gradually rise in the long term, but the upside space was limited [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - Despite facing operational pressure in the industrial silicon, organic silicon, and photovoltaic sectors, the company achieved a revenue of 9.775 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, although it reported a net profit of -397 million yuan due to price declines influenced by economic fluctuations and supply-demand mismatches [1] Group 1: Organic Silicon Business - The organic silicon prices have rapidly declined to historical lows, but the simultaneous decrease in raw material costs and product prices has prevented a significant drop in the industry's overall gross profit margin [2] - As a leading player in the organic silicon sector, the company is expected to accelerate its profit rebound due to anticipated price recovery and improved supply-demand dynamics [2] - The company's organic silicon business generated a revenue of 4.662 billion yuan in the first half of the year, with a gross margin of 17.36%, an increase of 1 percentage point year-on-year [2] Group 2: Industrial Silicon Business - The company is positioned to benefit from industry consolidation and efficiency improvements as high-energy-consuming capacities are phased out [4] - The company has optimized its resource allocation and increased its self-supply ratio, enhancing product quality and reducing production costs [4] - Industrial silicon prices have begun to rebound after hitting a low in early June, with expectations for a gradual recovery in the second half of the year as supply-demand conditions improve [4] Group 3: Silicon Carbide Business - The company is extending its silicon-based new materials industry chain, positioning silicon carbide products as a new growth point [5] - The company has mastered the core technologies across the entire silicon carbide production chain, achieving leading domestic product yields and competitive technical indicators [6] - The company has successfully developed ultra-pure silicon carbide ceramic powders and high-purity semi-insulating silicon carbide powders, catering to various high-purity and customized powder demands [6] Group 4: Future Outlook - The company anticipates a gradual release of demand in the second half of 2025, driven by stable organic silicon market capacity and ongoing demand from emerging sectors [7] - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing significant adjustments, with government interventions expected to help restore healthy development, positively impacting the upstream industrial silicon market [7] - The company has a robust cash flow position, significantly outperforming comparable companies, which is crucial for navigating the industry's downturn [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - There is no information about industry investment ratings in the provided reports. 2. Core Views Natural Rubber - Affected by the dovish stance of the Federal Reserve, market sentiment is positive, driving up rubber prices. However, the trading atmosphere in the spot market has cooled, and tire factories are cautious about purchasing high - priced raw materials, limiting the upside of rubber prices. It is expected that rubber prices will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the 01 contract's range referring to 15,000 - 16,500. Follow the raw material supply situation during the peak production season in the main producing areas, and consider short - selling at high levels if the raw material supply is smooth [1]. Polysilicon - In August, the supply and demand of polysilicon both increased, but the supply growth rate was larger, still facing inventory accumulation pressure. The price will mainly fluctuate at a high level, with the lower limit of the price fluctuation range rising to 47,000 yuan/ton and the upper limit likely to be between 58,000 - 60,000 yuan/ton. It is recommended to try long positions on dips. When the price is high, consider buying put options to short when the volatility is low [3]. Industrial Silicon - From the cost side, raw material prices are rising, and the electricity price in the southwest region will gradually increase during the dry season, raising the cost center of industrial silicon. Although the current output of industrial silicon has increased month - on - month, there are also news of capacity clearance, and small furnaces may be shut down. In August, supply and demand both increased, maintaining a tight balance. If some capacity is cleared in the long - term, the supply pressure will weaken. It is recommended to try long positions on dips, and the main price fluctuation range may be between 8,000 - 9,500 yuan/ton [4]. Logs - The current main contract has switched to the 2511 contract, and the disk valuation fluctuates around the delivery cost and the receiving value range. There is an expectation of marginal improvement in the follow - up fundamentals. The demand is currently firm, maintaining at the level of 60,000 cubic meters. The inventory continues to decline due to less unloading at ports and strong outbound volume. It is expected that the overall shipment in September will be the same as that in August. The new warehouse receipts being registered may suppress the disk. It is recommended to go long on dips [6]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Soda Ash**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The weekly output has rebounded significantly, and the inventory is in a continuous pattern. The current weekly output corresponds to an obvious excess of demand. In the medium - term, after the photovoltaic rush installation in the second quarter, the growth of photovoltaic glass capacity has slowed down, and the float glass capacity has remained flat. There is still pressure on supply and demand in the future, and there may be further cold - repair expectations. Therefore, there is no growth expectation for the overall demand of soda ash. It is recommended to hold short positions [7]. - **Glass**: The impact of the coking coal event is gradually weakening, and the futures market continues to weaken. The middle - stream continuous shipment suppresses the spot price, and manufacturers are forced to cut prices. The market negative feedback continues. The near - month 09 contract has a weak reality, and the far - month 01 contract has a weak expectation. The deep - processing orders are weak, and the low - e glass production rate is continuously low. There is a certain pressure on the rigid demand side of glass. In the long - run, at the bottom of the real estate cycle, the completion volume is shrinking, and the industry needs capacity clearance to solve the over - supply dilemma. High - level short positions established earlier can be closed for profit, waiting for new logical drivers [7]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Natural Rubber Spot Price and Basis - The price of Yunnan state - owned full - latex (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 50 yuan to 14,900 yuan, a decline of 0.33% from August 26th. The full - latex basis (switched to the 2509 contract) increased by 75 yuan to - 860 yuan/ton, a rise of 8.02% [1]. Inter - month Spread - The 9 - 1 spread increased by 40 yuan, a rise of 4.02%; the 1 - 5 spread increased by 5 yuan, a rise of 5.56%; the 5 - 9 spread decreased by 45 yuan, a decline of 4.15% [1]. Production and Consumption Analysis - In June, Thailand's production was 392,600 tons, a 44.23% increase from the previous value; Indonesia's production was 176,200 tons, a 12.03% decrease; India's production was 62,400 tons, a 30.82% increase; China's production was 103,200 tons, a 7.05% increase. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires was 73.13%, a 1.06 - percentage - point increase; the weekly operating rate of full - steel tires was 64.76%, a 1.67 - percentage - point increase. In July, domestic tire production was 94.364 million units, an 8.16% decrease; tire exports were 66.65 million units, a 10.51% increase. The total import volume of natural rubber was 474,800 tons, a 2.47% increase [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory decreased by 3,121 tons to 616,731 tons, a 0.50% decrease; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased by 1,612 tons to 44,857 tons, a 3.47% decrease [1]. Polysilicon Spot Price and Basis - The average price of N - type re - feed material remained unchanged at 49,000 yuan; the N - type material basis (average price) increased by 2,295 yuan to 310 yuan, a 115.62% increase [3]. Futures Price and Inter - month Spread - The main contract price decreased by 2,295 yuan to 48,690 yuan, a 4.50% decrease. The spread between the current month and the next - month contract increased by 160 yuan, a 266.67% increase [3]. Fundamental Data - Weekly: The silicon wafer output was 12.29 GW, a 1.57% increase; the polysilicon output was 2.91 kilotons, a 0.68% decrease. Monthly: The polysilicon output was 101 kilotons, a 5.10% increase; the polysilicon import volume was 0.12 kilotons, a 47.48% increase; the polysilicon export volume was 0.21 kilotons, a 3.92% decrease [3]. Inventory Change - The polysilicon inventory increased by 0.7 kilotons to 24.9 kilotons, a 2.89% increase; the silicon wafer inventory decreased by 2.39 GW to 17.41 GW, a 12.07% decrease; the polysilicon warehouse receipts increased by 10 lots to 6,880 lots [3]. Industrial Silicon Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passing S15530 industrial silicon decreased by 20 yuan to 9,300 yuan, a 0.53% decrease; the basis (based on oxygen - passing SI5530) decreased by 80 yuan to 775 yuan, a 7.19% decrease [4]. Inter - month Spread - The 2509 - 2510 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 16.67% increase; the 2510 - 2511 spread increased by 5 yuan to - 12 yuan, a 25.00% increase [4]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - The national industrial silicon output was 338.3 kilotons, a 3.23% increase; the Xinjiang industrial silicon output was 150.3 kilotons, a 15.21% decrease; the Yunnan industrial silicon output was 41.2 kilotons, a 153.86% increase [4]. Inventory Change - The Xinjiang inventory increased by 0.31 kilotons to 12.01 kilotons, a 2.65% increase; the Yunnan factory - warehouse inventory increased by 0.05 kilotons to 3.19 kilotons, a 1.59% increase [4]. Logs Futures and Spot Prices - The price of log 2509 decreased by 9.5 yuan to 792 yuan, a 1.19% decrease; the 09 contract basis increased by 9.5 yuan to - 42 yuan [6]. Cost: Import Cost Calculation - The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.156, an increase of 0.002; the import theoretical cost was 815.74 yuan, an increase of 0.20 yuan [6]. Supply (Monthly) - The port shipment volume was 1.733 million cubic meters, a 1.51% decrease; the number of ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 47, an 11.32% decrease [6]. Inventory: Main Port Inventory (Weekly) - The national log inventory was 3.05 million cubic meters, a 0.33% decrease; the Shandong inventory was 1.86 million cubic meters, a 0.32% increase [6]. Demand: Daily Outbound Volume (Weekly) - The national daily outbound volume was 64,500 cubic meters, a 2% increase; the Shandong daily outbound volume was 34,900 cubic meters, a 3% decrease [6]. Glass and Soda Ash Glass - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China glass quotation remained unchanged at 1,140 yuan; the glass 2505 contract price increased by 1 yuan to 1,267 yuan, a 0.08% increase; the 05 contract basis decreased by 1 yuan to - 127 yuan, a 0.79% decrease [7]. Soda Ash - Related Prices and Spreads - The North China soda ash quotation remained unchanged at 1,350 yuan; the soda ash 2505 contract price decreased by 2 yuan to 1,375 yuan, a 0.15% decrease; the 05 contract basis increased by 2 yuan to - 25 yuan, a 7.41% increase [7]. Supply - The soda ash operating rate was 88.48%, a 1.33% increase; the weekly soda ash output was 771.4 kilotons, a 1.33% increase; the float glass daily melting volume remained unchanged at 159,600 tons [7]. Inventory - The glass market inventory increased by 18 kilotons to 6,360.6 kilotons, a 0.28% increase; the soda ash factory inventory increased by 17 kilotons to 1,910.6 kilotons, a 0.89% increase [7]. Real Estate Data (Year - on - Year Monthly) - The new construction area growth rate was - 0.09%, an increase of 0.09 percentage points; the construction area growth rate was 0.05%, a 2.43 - percentage - point decrease; the completion area growth rate was - 0.22%, a 0.03 - percentage - point decrease; the sales area growth rate was - 6.55%, a 6.50 - percentage - point decrease [7].

Core Viewpoint - The company faced operational pressure in the first half of 2025 due to challenges in the industrial silicon, organic silicon, and photovoltaic sectors, resulting in a decline in performance despite a significant increase in cash flow from operating activities [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved operating revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of -397 million yuan, indicating a decline in performance due to economic fluctuations and supply-demand mismatches [1] - The net cash flow from operating activities reached 3.524 billion yuan, representing a substantial year-on-year increase of 1987.93% [1][8] Group 2: Organic Silicon Business - Despite rapid price declines in organic silicon, the industry’s overall gross profit margin remained stable due to synchronized declines in raw material costs and product prices, suggesting a potential price recovery [2] - The company is expected to benefit from a rebound in profitability as the organic silicon industry is projected to improve, with operating rates increasing from 67% in 2024 to 76% in 2025 and 83% in 2026 [2] Group 3: Industrial Silicon Business - The company, as the largest producer of industrial silicon in China, is enhancing product quality and reducing production costs through optimized resource allocation and increased self-sufficiency [4] - The industrial silicon market is anticipated to recover as high-energy capacity exit policies are expected to drive industry consolidation, with prices showing signs of recovery after hitting a low in June [4] Group 4: Silicon Carbide Business - The company is extending its silicon-based materials industry chain, focusing on silicon carbide as a new growth point, with significant advancements in production capabilities and product quality [5] - The company has achieved a crystal yield of over 95% for 6-inch silicon carbide substrates and is progressing well with 8-inch and 12-inch substrates [5][6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about the second half of 2025, with stable organic silicon market capacity and strong demand in emerging sectors such as new energy vehicles and 5G technology [7] - The company’s comprehensive cash flow management and ability to issue bonds for long-term funding are expected to strengthen its position during industry downturns [8]

Group 1: Company Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 9.775 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 26.34% due to losses in the photovoltaic sector and inventory write-downs [1] - The company's net profit attributable to shareholders was -397 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 140.60%, marking a shift from profit to loss compared to the same period last year [1] - Despite the losses, the company's operating cash flow net amount reached 3.524 billion yuan, a significant year-on-year increase of 1,987.93% [1] Group 2: Industry Trends and Challenges - The overall demand for industrial silicon is weak, leading to low operating rates for polysilicon and a downward trend in prices, creating a negative feedback loop of "high inventory - low prices - weak demand" across the industry [2] - In the first half of 2025, domestic industrial silicon capacity was approximately 1.85 million tons, with new capacity in the northwest filling the gap during the southwest's dry season, but high inventory levels continued to push prices down [2] - The polysilicon production volume decreased by 44% year-on-year due to inventory accumulation and self-discipline in production limits within the photovoltaic industry [2] Group 3: Policy and Strategic Responses - A recent meeting by the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology aimed to regulate competition in the photovoltaic industry, with agreements among several silicon material companies on production cuts and sales volume control [3] - The company plans to focus on the progress of the photovoltaic industry's "anti-involution" measures and changes in polysilicon operating rates, as well as the demand from emerging industries for organic silicon [3] - The company has implemented several "anti-involution" strategies, including optimizing production processes and enhancing digital transformation to improve efficiency and reduce energy consumption [4] Group 4: Research and Development Initiatives - The company has made significant advancements in new downstream products, including amino silicone oil and silicone emulsions, which meet international standards and cater to the textile and cosmetics industries [5] - The company is actively developing new products in the organic silicon sector, with a focus on applications in electric vehicle battery sealing, 5G base station cooling, and medical-grade silicone [5] - The company has achieved a leading position in the domestic carbon silicon industry, with a 95% yield for 6-inch carbon silicon substrates and ongoing development of 8-inch and 12-inch substrates [6]