强弱分析：中性 精废价差近期呈现震荡 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 01-02 01-14 01-26 02-07 02-19 03-03 03-15 03-27 04-09 04-21 05-06 05-18 05-30 06-11 06-23 07-05 07-17 07-29 08-10 08-22 09-03 09-15 09-27 10-16 10-28 11-09 11-21 12-03 12-15 12-27 元/吨 佛山破碎生铝精废价差 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 铸造铝合金产业链周报 国泰君安期货研究所 有色及贵金属组 王蓉（首席分析师/所长助理） 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0002529 王宗源（联系人） 期货从业资格号： F03142619 日期：2025年8月31日 Guotai Junan Futures all rights reserved, please do not reprint Special report on Guotai Junan Futures 铸造铝合金：临近传统消费旺季，下游需求或小幅回暖 ADC12-A0 ...

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ) announced a share buyback program, indicating a strategic move to enhance shareholder value through the repurchase of shares [1] Group 1: Share Buyback Details - As of August 31, 2025, the company has repurchased a total of 23.7052 million shares, which represents 0.51% of the total share capital [1] - The highest transaction price during the buyback was 9.79 CNY per share, while the lowest was 7.41 CNY per share [1] - The total amount of funds utilized for the buyback is approximately 200 million CNY [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for Tianshan Aluminum [4][6]. Core Views - The company has seen an increase in both the volume and price of electrolytic aluminum, with expectations for new production capacity to come online [2][3]. - The integrated layout of the company enhances its raw material supply capabilities, which is expected to stabilize performance [3]. - The company is strategically expanding its operations in Indonesia and Guinea to secure resource supply and reduce costs [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Tianshan Aluminum reported revenue of 15.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.2%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.08 billion yuan, up 0.5% year-on-year [1]. - The average selling price of self-produced electrolytic aluminum was approximately 20,250 yuan per ton, reflecting a year-on-year increase of about 2.8% [2]. - The gross profit margin for electrolytic aluminum was 23.6%, an increase of 0.9 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross profit margin for alumina decreased by 8.6 percentage points to 14.6% [2]. Production Capacity and Cost Structure - The current electrolytic aluminum production capacity is 1.2 million tons, with an actual annual output of approximately 1.16 million tons [2]. - The company is progressing with the construction of an additional 200,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum capacity, expected to be released in 2026 [3]. - The company benefits from low energy costs due to its location in Xinjiang, where coal resources are abundant, enhancing its cost advantage [3]. Future Outlook - The company is planning to invest 1.556 billion USD in a new 2 million tons alumina production line in Indonesia, with the first phase of 1 million tons already receiving environmental approval [3]. - The company has secured a 50% stake in Elite Mining Guinea S.A. and exclusive purchasing rights for bauxite, with a planned annual capacity of 5-6 million tons [3]. - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are estimated at 4.71 billion yuan, 5.74 billion yuan, and 6.33 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding PE ratios of 10, 8, and 7 [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - Nanshan Aluminum's performance in H1 2025 was impacted by a decline in alumina prices, despite a year-on-year increase in revenue and net profit. The company is making steady progress on its projects in Indonesia, which are expected to drive future growth [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Nanshan Aluminum achieved revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [2][3]. - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.4 yuan per 10 shares, totaling 460 million yuan, with a dividend payout ratio of 17.7% [2]. Price and Production Insights - Nanshan Aluminum's current electrolytic aluminum capacity is 680,000 tons, and alumina capacity is 3.4 million tons, with 1.4 million tons in China and 2 million tons in Indonesia. In H1 2025, the electrolytic aluminum production is expected to be around 340,000 tons [3]. - The average aluminum price in H1 2025 was 20,321 yuan per ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, while the alumina price in Shandong was 3,416 yuan per ton, down 0.4% year-on-year [3]. Project Development - The first phase of the 2 million-ton alumina project in Indonesia, with a capacity of 1 million tons, was commissioned in H1 2025, and the second phase is progressing as planned. Additionally, the company is constructing a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and a 260,000-ton carbon project in Indonesia [3][4]. - Nanshan Aluminum's Indonesian operations are set to be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, which will facilitate further investment and growth in the region [4]. Market Opportunities - The rapid growth of the new energy vehicle market presents significant demand for automotive plates, with Nanshan Aluminum positioned as a leader in this sector. The company has partially commissioned a 200,000-ton capacity for automotive plates, which is expected to benefit from increasing demand [4]. Profit Forecasts - Analysts project Nanshan Aluminum's net profit for 2025 to be approximately 4.93 billion yuan, with estimates for 2026 and 2027 at 5.20 billion yuan and 5.68 billion yuan, respectively. The corresponding price-to-earnings ratios are expected to be 10x, 9x, and 8x [4][5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the company, with a current price of 4.06 yuan [7]. Core Views - The company's performance in H1 2025 showed a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.3%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.63 billion yuan, up 20.0% year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a revenue decline of 1.8% year-on-year and a significant net profit drop of 31.1% year-on-year, primarily due to falling alumina prices [1][2]. - The company is progressing steadily with its Indonesian projects, including the commissioning of the first phase of a 1 million-ton alumina capacity and ongoing construction of additional capacities [3][4]. - The growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market is highlighted, with expectations of increased demand due to stricter energy consumption requirements and the company's leading position in this segment [4]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In H1 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 17.27 billion yuan, with a net profit of 2.63 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.0%. The Q2 2025 results showed a revenue of 8.29 billion yuan, down 1.8% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.92 billion yuan, down 31.1% year-on-year [1][2]. - The company's gross margin for H1 2025 was 28.5%, up 3.3 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 19.2%, up 2.4 percentage points year-on-year. However, Q2 2025 saw a gross margin drop to 23.7%, down 9.2 percentage points from the previous quarter [2]. Project Development - The Indonesian alumina project has a total capacity of 2 million tons, with the first phase of 1 million tons already in production. The second phase is progressing as planned, alongside the construction of a 250,000-ton electrolytic aluminum and 260,000-ton carbon product capacity [3][4]. Market Outlook - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the automotive aluminum sheet market, driven by increasing demand for lightweight materials. The company is positioned to benefit from this trend, with part of its 200,000-ton capacity already in production [4]. - The company plans to invest 6.06 billion yuan in Indonesia for the construction of additional capacities, which is expected to enhance its growth prospects in the region [4]. Earnings Forecast - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.93 billion yuan in 2025, 5.20 billion yuan in 2026, and 5.68 billion yuan in 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 10x, 9x, and 8x respectively [4][6].

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights that Zhongfu Industrial (中孚实业) has shown significant growth in Q2 2025 despite a slight decline in revenue, driven by improved profitability from aluminum production and strategic acquisitions [1][2][3]. Financial Performance - In H1 2025, Zhongfu Industrial achieved revenue of 10.57 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 3.8%, while net profit attributable to shareholders reached 710 million yuan, up 59.6% year-on-year [2]. - For Q2 2025, the company reported revenue of 5.55 billion yuan, down 4.5% year-on-year but up 10.6% quarter-on-quarter, with a net profit of 480 million yuan, reflecting a 19.4% increase year-on-year and a 107.2% increase quarter-on-quarter [2]. Price and Cost Dynamics - The average aluminum price in H1 2025 was 20,321 yuan/ton, up 2.7% year-on-year, while the price of alumina decreased by 0.3% to 3,518 yuan/ton [3]. - In Q2 2025, the aluminum price was 20,201 yuan/ton, down 1.2% quarter-on-quarter, and alumina prices fell significantly by 22.5% to 3,072 yuan/ton [3]. Profitability Metrics - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 11.7%, an increase of 1.4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 5.9%, up 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - In Q2 2025, the gross margin improved to 14.5%, a quarter-on-quarter increase of 5.9 percentage points, and the net margin reached 7.9%, up 4.2 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3]. Strategic Initiatives - The company completed the acquisition of a 24% stake in Zhongfu Aluminum, increasing its electrolytic aluminum capacity to 750,000 tons, enhancing earnings flexibility [3][5]. - The company plans to maintain a cash dividend payout ratio of no less than 60% from 2025 to 2027 as part of its shareholder return strategy [4]. Future Outlook - The reduction in alumina prices and the increase in electrolytic aluminum capacity are expected to significantly enhance profitability in the coming years [5]. - The company anticipates achieving net profits of 1.83 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.73 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 12, 9, and 8 times [5].

Group 1 - The U.S. Court of Appeals ruled that most of Trump's global tariff policies are illegal, stating that the International Emergency Economic Powers Act does not grant the president the authority to impose tariffs [1][2][8] - The tariffs will remain in effect until October 14 to allow the Supreme Court time to review the case, despite Trump's criticism of the ruling [3][9][10] - The ruling does not affect industry tariffs imposed under the Trade Expansion Act of 1962, particularly those on automobiles, steel, and aluminum [4][12] Group 2 - The ruling highlights the boundaries of presidential power, emphasizing that trade powers are constitutionally assigned to Congress [6][8] - Trump's administration may expand the coverage of Section 232 tariffs as a contingency plan to maintain its trade agenda, even if the "reciprocal tariffs" are overturned [5][16][17] Group 3 - The expansion of industry tariffs is accelerating, with over 400 product lines added to steel and aluminum tariffs, imposing up to 50% tariffs on these products [18][19] - The total value of imported finished products affected by the latest metal tariffs exceeds $300 billion, indicating a broad impact on various sectors [20] - The U.S. government plans to open application windows three times a year for companies to include more products under tariff coverage, with the next application window starting in September [21][22][23]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported its 2025 H1 financial results, showing revenue of 17.274 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.25%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.625 billion yuan, up 19.95% year-on-year, indicating strong performance in a challenging market environment [1]. Group 1: Financial Performance - The company's H1 2025 revenue reached 17.274 billion yuan, reflecting a 10.25% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders for H1 2025 was 2.625 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 19.95% [1]. - The non-recurring net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.611 billion yuan, marking a 21.04% increase year-on-year [1]. Group 2: Market Conditions - Domestic alumina prices experienced a phase of adjustment, with an average price of approximately 3,495 yuan per ton in H1 2025, up about 3% from the same period last year [1]. - The overseas alumina market faced downward pressure due to new production capacity coming online, leading to a supply surplus and a significant price drop [2]. - The average price of overseas alumina in H1 2025 was around 436 USD per ton, which is an 8% increase year-on-year [2]. Group 3: Aluminum Price Trends - The average price of primary aluminum in H1 2025 was approximately 20,288 yuan per ton, reflecting a 3% increase compared to the previous year [3]. - Aluminum prices showed volatility due to various factors, including changes in global trade policies and downstream demand recovery [2][3]. Group 4: Earnings Forecast - The company forecasts earnings per share (EPS) of 0.36, 0.40, and 0.45 yuan for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively, with price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 11, 10, and 9 times [3].

Core Viewpoint - The financial performance of Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612) for the first half of 2025 shows significant growth in revenue and net profit, indicating improved profitability and operational efficiency [1]. Financial Performance Summary - Total revenue for the first half of 2025 reached 3.309 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.34% compared to 3.141 billion yuan in 2024 [1]. - Net profit attributable to shareholders was 536 million yuan, reflecting a substantial year-on-year increase of 49.06% from 359 million yuan [1]. - The gross profit margin improved to 17.99%, up 36.97% from 13.13% in the previous year, while the net profit margin rose to 16.20%, an increase of 41.50% from 11.45% [1]. - The total of selling, administrative, and financial expenses was 33.0436 million yuan, accounting for 1.0% of revenue, a decrease of 47.08% from 1.89% in the previous year [1]. - Earnings per share increased to 0.45 yuan, up 48.68% from 0.30 yuan [1]. Asset and Liability Changes - Cash and cash equivalents increased by 21.14% to 1.814 billion yuan, attributed to the company's profitability [1]. - Accounts receivable surged by 998.59% to 20.0679 million yuan [1]. - Interest-bearing debt decreased by 20.46% to 584 million yuan [1]. Expense and Investment Insights - Management expenses decreased by 32.99%, primarily due to lower employee compensation [5]. - Financial expenses saw a significant reduction of 166.89%, attributed to decreased interest expenses from repaying bank loans [5]. - Research and development investment increased dramatically by 869.97%, indicating a strong commitment to innovation [7]. Tax and Cash Flow Analysis - Income tax expenses rose by 76.6%, reflecting an increase in taxable income due to higher main business profits [6]. - Net cash flow from investment activities decreased by 471.35%, primarily due to increased cash outflows for financial investments [8]. Fund Holdings - The largest fund holding Jiaozuo Wanfang is HSBC Jintrust Small and Medium Cap Stock, which increased its holdings to 7.8561 million shares [9]. - The fund has shown a significant annual increase of 51.72% in net value [9].

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a revenue of 3.309 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 5.34% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 536 million yuan, showing a significant year-on-year increase of 49.06% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 534 million yuan, which is a year-on-year growth of 42.29% [1] - The basic earnings per share stood at 0.449 yuan [1] Financial Performance - Revenue for the first half of 2025: 3.309 billion yuan, up 5.34% year-on-year [1] - Net profit attributable to shareholders: 536 million yuan, up 49.06% year-on-year [1] - Net profit after deducting non-recurring items: 534 million yuan, up 42.29% year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share: 0.449 yuan [1]