碳酸锂期货日报 行业 日期 2026 年 1 月 29 日 研究员：张平 021-60635734 zhangping@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3015713 021-60635729 yufeifei@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3025190 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 有色金属研究团队 研究员：余菲菲 研究员：彭婧霖 请阅读正文后的声明 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 图1：碳酸锂现货价及价差 图2：碳酸锂期货持仓量成交量 数据来源：Wind，建信期货研究发展部 碳酸锂期货价格高开低走，早盘主力最高涨破 18 万，但随后减仓下行。日内钢联 现货晚盘报价 17 万，较昨日跌 750 元/吨，跌幅明显小于盘面，其现货对盘面升 水扩大，现货表现抗跌，下游材料厂则在价格相对低位采购意愿增强，主要以刚 需采购和为二月备货为主。澳矿跌 100，云母矿跌 10，三元材料报价持平，铁锂 跌 50-100，产业链小幅跟跌。当前碳酸锂期货受窗口指导影响价格上行受阻 ...

Macro Strategy - The core viewpoint is that the reform of the public housing fund can release significant consumption potential by lowering housing costs, thereby saving more funds for consumption. Three specific paths are proposed to reduce housing costs: expanding rental withdrawals, broadening the usage scope of the fund, and further lowering loan interest rates. The total potential release of funds is estimated at approximately 515.1 billion yuan, which could theoretically stimulate consumption by about 360.6 billion yuan, increasing the growth rate of resident consumption by 0.7 percentage points [1][15]. Fixed Income Strategy - The report discusses the "see-saw" relationship between stocks and bonds, emphasizing that this relationship is not stable or universal. The direction of stock and bond pricing is determined by the interplay between the numerator (earnings) and the denominator (interest rates). When the economy performs well, stock prices may rise due to improved earnings, but rising interest rates can suppress bond prices and increase stock discount rates, leading to uncertain stock index directions. Conversely, in a weak economic environment, stock prices may decline even if bond prices rise [2][18]. Industry Insights - The commercial aerospace sector is highlighted as a key investment area for 2026, driven by the successful launch of domestic rockets, which has removed previous operational bottlenecks. The report suggests focusing on four main areas: SpaceX-related stocks, rocket and satellite sectors, and space computing/solar power. Specific companies to watch include Maimai Co., Anhui Helit, and others in the rocket and satellite sectors [3][21]. Water Conservancy Investment - The report indicates that the "northward shift of the rain belt" since 2021 has led to increased rainfall and flooding in northern China, prompting a focus on enhancing water conservancy infrastructure. It is projected that water-related investments in 2026 could see significant growth, contributing to a recovery in overall fixed asset investments by approximately 1.1 percentage points [2][16][17]. Electric Power Equipment - The report emphasizes the potential for rapid development in space solar power due to the acceleration of commercial aerospace and low-orbit satellite advancements. Companies involved in space power supply and equipment are recommended for investment, including Jun Da Co. and Ming Yang Smart Energy [6][21]. Food and Beverage Industry - The report discusses the potential of AKK bacteria as a beneficial symbiotic organism in gut health, with applications in obesity and diabetes management. The market for AKK is expected to grow significantly, with a focus on leading companies in the probiotic sector [3][23].

Core Viewpoint - The recent fluctuation in lithium carbonate futures prices reflects a market returning to fundamental trading after digesting previous bullish news, with prices experiencing a decline due to increased market volatility and a drop in lithium ore prices [3][4]. Group 1: Price Movement - On January 28, lithium carbonate futures closed at 166,280 yuan/ton, marking a 3.9% decrease [1]. - The price drop is attributed to the market's return to fundamentals after a period of high prices and increased volatility due to diverging market sentiments [3]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of lithium carbonate remains high but with limited incremental growth, maintaining a weekly production of approximately 22,000 tons [4]. - Demand is characterized by a "not-so-dull" off-season, with energy storage batteries operating at full capacity and a surge in exports driven by tax rebate policies [4]. - Current weekly inventory reduction of lithium carbonate is around 800 tons, indicating a shift back to a destocking phase after a slight accumulation [4]. Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the current low inventory levels across the industry, particularly among lithium salt manufacturers and downstream industries, may support prices despite recent declines [4]. - The market sentiment has cooled due to systemic risks and macroeconomic factors, leading to expectations of price fluctuations around high levels until new driving factors emerge [4][6]. - The ongoing strong demand may provide support for lithium carbonate prices, but caution is advised regarding potential downward adjustments as market dynamics evolve [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - Yongshan Lithium Industry (603399) expects to report a net profit attributable to shareholders of between -390 million yuan and -310 million yuan for the year 2025, indicating a loss compared to the previous year [1] Group 1: Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net profit after deducting non-recurring items to be between -333 million yuan and -271 million yuan for 2025 [1] - The expected loss is attributed to a narrowing of the margin between lithium salt sales prices and spodumene costs, alongside a significant decline in lithium salt prices during the first half of the year [1] Group 2: Business Segments - In the lithium salt business, the company faces substantial inventory impairment losses due to the drop in sales prices [1] - The molybdenum business is experiencing low gross margins due to weak downstream demand, with price increases not meeting expectations [1] Group 3: Non-Recurring Items - The company estimates non-recurring losses to be between -57 million yuan and -39 million yuan, primarily due to fluctuations in market prices of lithium raw materials accounted for in the current period [1] - Other non-recurring items include government subsidies, investment income, asset disposal gains, and other operating income and expenses [1]

导语：继赣锋锂业、天齐锂业之后，天华新能冲刺港股。 1月21日，苏州天华新能源科技股份有限公司（简称"天华新能"）发布公告，宣布正在筹划境外发行H股股票并在香港联合交易所有限公司上市事宜。 公告披露，本次H股发行上市是为加快国际化战略布局，利用国际资本市场优势，打造多元化资本平台，增强公司境外融资能力，进一步提高公司的资本 实力和综合竞争力。 目前，国内实现"A+H"上市的锂矿龙头只有江西赣锋锂业集团股份有限公司（简称"赣锋锂业"）和天齐锂业股份有限公司（简称"天齐锂业"）。 倘若天华新能冲刺港股成功，将成为国内第三家"A+H"上市的锂矿龙头。 增强境外融资能力，加快布局上游锂矿资源 天华新能原名天华超净，成立于1997年，2014年在深圳证券交易所上市。后因其锂盐业务发展迅速，2023年3月正式更名为天华新能。 财报显示，截至2025年上半年，天华新能锂电材料营收占比已经达到88.08%，主要生产和销售电池级氢氧化锂、电池级碳酸锂等锂电材料系列产品。 回顾天华新能的发展历程，不难发现，2018年是企业转型的重要节点。 这一年的11月19日，天华新能和宁德时代联合出资7亿元人民币成立宜宾市天宜锂业科创有限公司 ...

格隆汇1月28日丨永杉锂业(603399.SH)公布，经财务部门初步测算，预计公司2025年年度实现归属于母 公司所有者的净利润-39,000万元到-31,000万元，与上年同期相比，将出现亏损。预计2025年年度实现 归属于母公司所有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润-33,300万元到-27,100万元。 2025年，公司积极应对市场挑战，通过扩产提效、降本控费、优化产品结构、深化客户拓展等举措对冲 行业周期波动影响，但由于锂盐销售价格扣除锂辉石成本的矿盐差收窄，叠加上半年锂盐价格持续下 跌，存货跌价金额较大，最终导致公司利润亏损。2025年，钼精矿价格保持相对高位，而钼铁受下游需 求疲软制约，价格涨幅不及预期，导致钼铁业务毛利率偏低，公司出现亏损。 ...

南财智讯1月28日电，永杉锂业发布业绩预亏公告，锦州永杉锂业股份有限公司预计2025年年度实现归 属于母公司所有者的净利润为人民币-39,000万元到-31,000万元；预计2025年年度实现归属于母公司所 有者的扣除非经常性损益后的净利润为-33,300万元到-27,100万元。2025年，公司积极应对市场挑战， 通过扩产提效、降本控费、优化产品结构、深化客户拓展等举措对冲行业周期波动影响，但由于锂盐销 售价格扣除锂辉石成本的矿盐差收窄，叠加上半年锂盐价格持续下跌，存货跌价金额较大，最终导致公 司利润亏损；钼精矿价格保持相对高位，而钼铁受下游需求疲软制约，价格涨幅不及预期，导致钼铁业 务毛利率偏低，公司出现亏损；本期非经常性损益预计-5,700万元至-3,900万元，主要系报告期内锂盐 业务将锂矿材料点价采购自取得控制权日至资产负债表日之间的市场价格波动计入当期损益，其他非经 常性损益项目为政府补助、理财收益、资产处置收益、营业外收支等。 ...

格隆汇1月28日丨永杉锂业(603399.SH)在投资者互动平台表示，截至目前，公司并无自有锂矿资源，锂 矿主要来源为长协采购。 ...

东吴证券研报指出，雅化集团Q4业绩亮眼，略好于预期。公司预告25年归母净利6.0~6.8亿元，同比增 133%~164%，中值6.4亿元；其中Q4归母净利2.7至3.5亿元，同比160至238%，环比34%~75%，中值3.1 亿元。Q4预计公司民爆业务贡献利润1.3-1.5亿元，环比基本持平，全年合计贡献5.5亿，同增10%。公 司布局海外大矿服务业务，目前在非洲、澳洲已获得项目，随着项目推进，将逐步贡献增量，我们预计 未来年复合增长25%+。展望26年，我们预计公司锂盐产能达13万吨，出货量我们预计10万吨+，同比 +67%，权益自有资源规模3.8万吨，若按照碳酸锂价格15万/吨，对应可贡献23亿+利润。同时公司未来 将进一步拓展自有矿山规模。考虑公司碳酸锂涨价弹性，给予26年16x估值，对应目标价38元，维持"买 入"评级。 ...

（责任编辑：刘静 HZ010） 【免责声明】本文仅代表作者本人观点，与和讯网无关。和讯网站对文中陈述、观点判断保持中立，不对所包含内容 的准确性、可靠性或完整性提供任何明示或暗示的保证。请读者仅作参考，并请自行承担全部责任。邮箱： news_center@staff.hexun.com 中信建投证券研报指出，江西云母锂矿面临换证后续流程带来的停产压力，《固体废物综合治理行 动计划》落地后尾矿处理监管趋严，也放大供给端担忧。同时，部分锂盐厂春节期间存检修计划，当前 供给端几无弹性；虽然年度级别看供给增量较大，但无助于上半年紧张局面缓和。需求端，由于出口退 税带来抢出口预期，消费淡季不淡，累库困难，埋下二季度供给紧张基础。 据SMM，国内碳酸锂库存周度环比继续下降783吨，上游锂盐厂成品库存不足2万吨，下游材料厂 库存不足4万吨，处于偏低水平，跌价带来较为明显的补库效应。消费淡季不淡，维持去库，锂基本面 较为强势，二季度供给紧张担忧不断加剧。 ...