Market Performance - A-shares opened higher on the 25th, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.87% to 3870.02 points, the Shenzhen Component Index increasing by 1.53% to 12777.31 points, and the ChiNext Index up by 1.77% to 2980.93 points [1][2]. Sector Analysis - AI hardware sectors, lithium mining, and Fujian stocks showed strong performance, while water stocks declined, and sectors such as civil aviation, military industry, and liquor faced downward pressure [3]. - Over 4200 stocks in the market experienced gains, indicating a broad-based rally [3]. Investment Outlook - With the implementation of counter-cyclical adjustment policies, the A-share market is expected to confirm its bottom and enter a strong phase, suggesting that investors should consider buying on dips [3]. - As November approaches, the market is anticipated to gradually end its current adjustment phase and begin positioning for the spring market next year, supported by improved liquidity and favorable policy expectations [3]. - Certain sectors are showing valuation attractiveness, with mid-to-long-term investment value gradually increasing, particularly in dividend, TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecommunications), and new energy sectors [3].

Group 1 - The lithium sector is experiencing a rebound due to strong downstream demand, with a notable increase in carbonated lithium prices by over 3% [2][9] - Longpan Technology announced a significant increase in expected total sales to Chuangneng New Energy Co., Ltd., from over 5 billion to over 45 billion [2] - The price of carbonated lithium main contract rose, with a daily increase of 3.55%, reaching a peak of 94,800 [3][6] Group 2 - The lithium sector saw individual stocks like Tianji Co., Ltd. hitting the daily limit, while Tibet Mining and others also experienced significant gains [6] - Analysts attribute the recent rise in carbonated lithium prices to a surge in domestic and international energy storage market orders, leading to increased production schedules for battery and iron lithium material companies [9]

Core Viewpoint - Lithium stocks experienced a surge in the afternoon, with Tianqi Lithium Industries rising by 4.11% and Ganfeng Lithium increasing by 3.21, driven by strong demand in renewable energy and electric vehicles [1] Industry Summary - The chairman of Tianqi Lithium, Jiang Anqi, stated that the demand for lithium materials is continuously increasing due to the rapid growth of electric commercial vehicles and energy storage applications. By 2026, global lithium demand is expected to reach 2 million tons of lithium carbonate equivalent, achieving a near balance between supply and demand [1] - Ganfeng Lithium's chairman, Li Liangbin, predicted a 30% increase in lithium carbonate demand by 2026, reaching 1.9 million tons, with supply capacity expected to grow by approximately 250,000 tons. This indicates a balanced supply-demand scenario, with potential upward pressure on lithium carbonate prices [1] - If demand growth exceeds 30% next year, potentially reaching 40%, short-term supply may not be able to keep pace, leading to prices possibly exceeding 150,000 yuan/ton or even 200,000 yuan/ton [1]

智通财经APP获悉，锂矿股午后拉升，截至发稿，天齐锂业(09696)涨4.11%，报47.64港元；赣锋锂业 (01772)涨3.21%，报49.56港元。 消息面上，天齐锂业董事长蒋安琪今日在2025年第二届中国国际锂业大会上表示，受益于可再生能源并 网需求、商用重卡等电动化设备增速迅猛，储能领域和动力电池对基础锂材料的需求持续上涨，2026年 全球锂需求量预计将达到200万吨碳酸锂当量，基本达到供需平衡。随着锂行业供需格局的改善，产业 链将破除同质化竞争，企业将迎来更大的发展空间。 值得一提的是，此前赣锋锂业董事长李良彬预测，2026年碳酸锂需求会增长30%，需求达到190万吨， 同时供应能力经过评估后会增长25万吨左右，供需基本平衡，碳酸锂价格有探涨空间。如果明年需求增 速超过30%，甚至达到40%，短期内供应无法平衡，价格可能会突破15万元/吨甚至20万元/吨。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium sector is experiencing a rebound after hitting a low, with notable increases in stock prices for several companies [2] Group 1: Company Performance - Tibet Mining has seen its stock price rise by over 4% [2] - Tianqi Lithium, Yongshan Lithium, Ganfeng Lithium, and Yongxing Materials have also experienced stock price increases in tandem with Tibet Mining [2]

锂板块探底回升，西藏矿业涨超4%，天齐锂业、永杉锂业、赣锋锂业、永兴材料跟涨。 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a slight rebound with reduced trading volume, while the government bond futures market showed signs of recovery. The commodity index rebounded, but lithium carbonate continued its adjustment [1]. Market Analysis Stock Market - The stock market saw a slight rebound with significant differentiation. The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 3836.77 points, up 0.05%. The Shenzhen Component Index rose 0.37% to 12585.08 points, and the ChiNext Index increased by 0.31% to 2929.04 points. The STAR 50 Index gained 0.84%. Notably, small-cap stocks outperformed, with the STAR 200 Index surging 3.02% and the Wind Micro Cap Index rising 2.21%. The total market turnover was 1.74 trillion yuan, down approximately 12.3% from the previous trading day, indicating weak buying interest [2][4]. Bond Market - The government bond futures market showed a slight increase, with the 30-year main contract rising by 0.15%. The 10-year, 5-year, and 2-year contracts increased by 0.06%, 0.03%, and 0.01%, respectively. The overall liquidity in the market remained ample, with the central bank conducting a 3387 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation at a rate of 1.40% [7][8]. Commodity Market - The commodity index rebounded, with the Nanhua Commodity Index closing at 2516.25 points, up 0.55%. The market showed structural differentiation, with the energy and chemical sectors leading gains, while agricultural products and black metals showed localized strength. However, lithium carbonate prices continued to decline, dropping by 2.88% [9][11]. Trading Hotspots Recent Hot Products - Dividend stocks are attractive due to their yield and risk-averse positioning, with future attention on commodity price trends and corporate dividend situations [13]. - AI applications are gaining traction, with products like Alibaba's Qianwen and Google's Gemini driving interest, focusing on application scenario transformations and technological breakthroughs [13]. - The consumer sector is benefiting from the appreciation of the yuan and market style shifts, with future attention on economic recovery and potential stimulus policies [13]. - Brokerage firms are seeing active trading and deposit migration, with future focus on A-share market trading volume and potential changes in trading regulations [13]. Core Thoughts Summary - The equity market is expected to remain weak due to external factors such as the Federal Reserve's interest rate expectations and tensions in Sino-Japanese relations, with a cautious risk appetite anticipated [14]. - The bond market is likely to maintain a loose liquidity environment in the short term, with attention on domestic policies and the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [14]. - The industrial product market is shifting from speculative trading to focusing on the real supply-demand fundamentals, while precious metals may have upward opportunities if U.S. non-farm data is weak or geopolitical risks increase [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - On November 24, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures fluctuated at a low level. The current market trading warmed up, and the spot premium expanded. Considering the current strong supply and demand, the repeated news of the resumption of production of Jiangnan lithium mines, the record - high weekly production of lithium carbonate, the strong wait - and - see sentiment of downstream, the warming up of the spot market trading, the weakening of power demand, and the exchange's move to cool down the market, it is expected that lithium prices will fluctuate weakly. Production enterprises can conduct sell - hedging at high levels, and speculators can go short on rallies [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market Data - On November 24, 2025, the closing prices of near - month, continuous - one, continuous - two, and continuous - three contracts of lithium carbonate futures were 90200 yuan/ton, 90480 yuan/ton, 90780 yuan/ton, and 90780 yuan/ton respectively, with decreases of 760 yuan/ton, 540 yuan/ton, and 380 yuan/ton compared to the previous trading day. The trading volume was 454612 hands (-683212), and the open interest was 365078 hands (-46249) [1] Spot Market Data - The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate (99.5% domestic) was 92150 yuan/ton (-150), and the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate (99.2% domestic) was 89750 yuan/ton (-150). The average price of lithium spodumene concentrate (6%, CIF China) was 1071 US dollars/ton (-18), and the average prices of different types of lithium mica and phospho - lithium - aluminum stone also decreased to varying degrees [1] Inventory Data - The registered warehouse receipts were 26510 tons (-338). The social inventory decreased. The inventories of smelters and downstream decreased, while other inventories increased. The total SMM lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons compared to the previous week [1] Supply and Demand Data - Supply side: Last week, the production of lithium carbonate increased, and the production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials increased. Demand side: Last week, the production of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials increased. In November, the production schedule of lithium cobalt oxide increased, and that of lithium manganate decreased. Last week, the production of power batteries decreased. In October, the year - on - year and month - on - month growth rates of new energy vehicle production and sales slowed down, the 3C shipments weakened, and the production schedule of energy - storage batteries increased in November [1] Industry News - Shengxin Lithium Energy plans to sign a "2026 - 2030 Cooperation Framework Agreement" with Huayou Holding Group on lithium salt product business cooperation. Huayou Holding Group is expected to purchase 221400 tons of lithium salt products from the company between 2026 and 2030 [1]

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs acknowledges a significant shift in the lithium market due to the explosive growth in energy storage system (ESS) demand, leading to a tighter short-term supply-demand balance, while the medium-term oversupply scenario remains unchanged [1][2]. Group 1: Short-term Market Dynamics - The price of lithium carbonate in China surged from $9,200 per ton in mid-September to over $11,000 per ton, prompting Goldman Sachs to revise its 2026 price forecast and delay the anticipated price correction to the second half of 2026 [1][2]. - The demand model for ESS has been significantly adjusted, with forecasts for ESS consumption in 2025 and 2026 raised to 589 GWh and 736 GWh, respectively, nearly doubling previous estimates [2]. Group 2: Long-term Supply Outlook - Despite the optimistic short-term outlook, Goldman Sachs maintains a bearish medium-term view, predicting a return to oversupply by 2027, with supply exceeding demand by 18% unless producers cut back on capacity expansion plans [1][3]. - The report anticipates that lithium prices will decline from $11,000 per ton in the first half of 2026 to $9,500 per ton in the second half, driven by increased supply from lithium spodumene and the resumption of lithium mica production [3]. Group 3: Price Projections - Goldman Sachs projects an average price of $10,250 per ton for 2026, which remains below CME futures prices, indicating a potential over-optimism in the current market [3]. - For 2027-2028, prices are expected to remain below the estimated incentive price range of $10,200 to $11,000 per ton, necessitating supply cuts to prevent excessive inventory accumulation [3].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Options: Consider partial profit - taking on deeply out - of - the - money short put options [5]. - Hedging: Lithium salt producers should moderately increase the proportion of selling hedging, and downstream enterprises can buy hedging in a medium - proportion according to orders to lock in procurement costs [5]. - Basis: Hold a small - position long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio (entering delivery) and manage risks well [5]. - Calendar spread: Participate in a small - position short 03 - long 05 reverse arbitrage portfolio [5]. - Unilateral strategy: As the exchange takes measures to cool down, long - position funds may gradually take profits, potentially leading to a short - term price correction. Short - position entry should be in a light position with profit - taking settings [6]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply Side - In Yichun, the probability of production suspension in operating mines is low. The 8 lithium - related mines in Yichun have all submitted mineral type change reserve verification reports. The Jiaxiaowo Mine is expected to have a low probability of resuming production this year, though there are still reports indicating a possible December restart [6][14][15]. - The prices of lithium raw materials have increased. As of November 20, the price of Australian lithium spodumene concentrate increased by 195 to 1245 US dollars/ton week - on - week, and the price of lithium mica (2.0% - 2.5%) increased by 420 to 2700 yuan/ton [15]. - The production of lithium carbonate from various raw materials has increased. In the week of November 20, the production of lithium carbonate was 22,130 tons, a week - on - week increase of 585 tons. In October 2025, the monthly total production of domestic lithium carbonate was 92,260 tons, a month - on - month increase of 6% and a year - on - year increase of 55%. It is expected that the output in November will remain at the same level as in October [21][22]. - Import data shows that in October 2025, Chile exported 25,000 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 56%. China imported about 23,900 tons of lithium carbonate, a month - on - month increase of 22% [27]. Demand Side - The new energy vehicle industry is in the peak production and sales season. In October 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles were 1.772 million and 1.715 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 21.1% and 20%. From January to October, the cumulative production and sales were 13.015 million and 12.943 million respectively, with year - on - year increases of 33.1% and 32.7%. In October, new energy vehicle exports were 256,000, a month - on - month increase of 15% and a year - on - year increase of 100% [33]. - The energy storage demand remains strong. The supply of energy storage cells is growing steadily, and the demand from diversified investment entities for independent energy storage power stations is increasing. Policies in China and other countries are also promoting the development of the energy storage industry [36]. - The lithium battery production in November continues to be prosperous. In November 2025, the planned production of power + energy storage + consumer - type batteries in the Chinese market was 209 GWh, a month - on - month increase of 12.4% and a year - on - year increase of 64.6% [47]. - The production of cathode materials is expected to increase. In October, the production of lithium iron phosphate was 394,350 tons, a month - on - month increase of 10.5% and a year - on - year increase of 51%. It is expected that the planned production in November will increase by 8% to 425,898 tons. The production of ternary materials in October was 84,090 tons, a month - on - month increase of 11.6% and a year - on - year increase of 43%. The market demand in November is expected to continue to improve [49]. Inventory Side - Both factory inventories and warehouse receipts of lithium carbonate are decreasing. As of November 20, the lithium carbonate inventory decreased by 2052 tons to 118,400 tons week - on - week. The warehouse receipt volume was 26,916 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 254 tons [53]. Basis Analysis - There are opportunities for spot - futures positive arbitrage. The holding cost for 1 month is about 2663 yuan/ton, and for 2 months is about 3317 yuan/ton. Hold the long spot - short futures positive arbitrage portfolio and manage risks well [55]. Spread Analysis - Consider participating in the reverse arbitrage opportunity of the 03 - 05 contracts. The 11 - 12 contracts showed a reverse arbitrage trend approaching the November delivery month. Considering the off - season demand in the first quarter of next year, one can moderately participate in the reverse arbitrage of the 03 - 05 contracts. However, the arbitrage trading space between contracts is limited [59]. Overseas Mines - Some mines have production and cost changes. For example, the Greenbushes Mine's CGP3 project is planned to start commissioning at the end of 2025, and the Mt Pilgangoora Mine's unit operating cost has decreased [60]. - There are many new/expansion projects in 2026, with a total lithium carbonate equivalent of 34.99 tons, including the CGP3 expansion of Greenbushes, the expansion of Goulamina in Mali under Ganfeng Lithium, etc. [61].