食品饮料周报 白酒持续调整，关注高景气大众 品 证券研究报告 请务必阅读正文后免责条款 食品饮料行业 强于大市（维持） 平安证券研究所 食品饮料团队 分析师：张晋溢 S1060521030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：ZHANGJINYI112@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王萌 S1060522030001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGMENG917@pingan.com.cn 分析师：王星云 S1060523100001（证券投资咨询） 邮箱：WANGXINGYUN937@pingan.com.cn 2025年6月16日 食品饮料周报-观点 白酒行业 食品行业 风险提示：1）宏观经济疲软的风险；2）行业竞争加剧风险；3）重大食品安全事件的风险。 资料来源：Wind，平安证券研究所 本周白酒指数（中信）累计涨跌幅-5.31%。涨跌幅前三的个股为：金种子酒（-1.28%）、顺鑫农业（-1.60%）、伊力特（- 2.09%）；涨跌幅后三的个股为金徽酒（-8.33%）、今世缘（-8.80%）、古井贡酒（-9.78%）。 观点：白酒持续调整，期待后续改善。白酒板块持续调整，上周白酒指数下跌5.31%。据今日 ...

6月16日晚间，"国民零食第一股"三只松鼠发布公告称，公司全资子公司安徽一件事创业投资有限公司决定终止收购湖南爱零食科技有限公司的控制权或 相关业务及资产。 三只松鼠表示，自《投资意向协议》签署以来，交易各方有序推进和落实本次交易的各项工作，开展洽谈和磋商，但最终双方就本次交易的部分核心条款 未达成一致。经公司充分讨论和审慎研究，决定终止本次收购事项。 2亿元收购计划终止 2024年10月28日，三只松鼠宣布，公司全资子公司安徽一件事创业投资有限公司拟以不超过2亿元收购湖南爱零食科技有限公司的控制权或相关业务及资 产。 当日，三只松鼠董事会审议通过《关于签订〈投资意向协议〉的议案》，正式启动对爱零食的收购程序。 2025年1月24日，经友好协商，双方决定将《投资意向协议》有效期及排他性约定的90天延长至正式投资协议签署之日，各方将继续就交易具体方案做进 一步磋商。 不过，双方就本次交易的部分核心条款未达成一致，最终，三只松鼠决定终止本次收购事项。 三只松鼠表示，本次终止的《投资意向协议》仅为意向性协议，各方未签订正式的投资协议。本次终止收购事项不会对公司的生产经营及经营业绩产生重 大不利影响，也不会影响公司未 ...

2025年至今股票市场没有呈现出总体性的趋势机会，上半年都运行在下有底上有顶的波动之中，"分 化"成了股票市场的关键词。作为驱动股票市场的根本动力，我国宏观经济的运行情况在分化。一方面 以房地产产业链为代表的旧动能仍在下行，虽然可喜的是在相关政策托举之下，其下行的速度已经趋 缓，在细分结构上甚至有表现良好的其余和品类；另一方面以高端制造、新消费为代表的新质生产力表 现良好，为稳住我国经济的增速起到了一定作用。因此，汽车、家电等有一定政策托举力度的行业，半 导体、电子、机械等涉及AI、人形机器人等新技术、新增长方向，休闲零食、黄金珠宝零售等涉及新 产品、新需求的行业，有相对更好的表现。投资股票市场的资金结构也在分化。近年来，"国家队"和保 险公司成为新增资金的重要来源，个人散户和私募成为活跃资金的重要来源。因此，宽基指数、银行等 红利品种、小微盘品种在今年的表现更为亮眼。 (责任编辑：叶景) 站在年中的时点，我们展望下半年的股票投资策略，分化仍将继续主导权益市场的运行，轮动也将在投 资中起到更重要的作用。经过上半年的上涨，基本面较好的新消费和炒作较明显的主题投资积累了不小 的累计涨幅，有些品种的估值也到了较高的 ...

作者 | 李小霞 编辑 | 乔芊 灯光亮起，三只松鼠创始人章燎原出现在舞台中央，他身穿燕尾服，挥动起指挥棒。 这是三只松鼠 "2025 全域生态大会" 的现场。熬过前几年的至暗时刻，带着公司从低谷重新爬起来后， 章燎原终于可以变得松弛一些了。 回头看，2019年，三只松鼠在A股完成IPO，且在这一年成为休闲零食行业首个年收入过百亿的公司， 正是风光巅峰，用章燎原的话讲，却也是事物向相反方向发展的开始，随后陷入长达四年的低谷，营收 净利下滑。 作为掌舵者，章燎原陷入了极度焦虑之中，失眠成为常态，"做什么都是错的"。 直到2022年底的一场高管会上，大家不再以强者姿态看问题，讨论三天三夜后，得出一个共识：三只松 鼠卖得太「贵」了。 随后便是向「高端性价比」转弯的探索，并在淘宝、京东之外，布局抖音、拼多多等渠道，2024年，三 只松鼠终于重回百亿营收。 章燎原将"把抖音做起来"视作三只松鼠走出低谷的象征。但在他看来，抖音起到很大的作用并不在于抖 音，而在于他们找到的做事方法，以及"以一敌百"的组织能力。 基于这些方法和能力，三只松鼠想做更多的事情，推出了33个自有品牌，覆盖宠物食品、滋补、方便速 食、咖啡、女性用品 ...

｜2025年6月3日星期二｜ NO.1天风证券：市场交易情绪依然处于阶段性低位 天风证券（601162）研报表示，5月交易类指标环比持续下滑，表明市场交易情绪依然处于阶段性低 位，同时资产联动指标、市场配置指标指向市场向上的潜在空间依然较大，另外在投资者行为方面，回 购规模环比持续大幅上升，产业资本净减持幅度则大幅走阔，资金主体指标整体出现小幅回落迹象。 NO.2中金：综合内外部因素，市场或维持震荡格局 中金公司（601995）研报称，综合内外部因素，市场或维持震荡格局。风格层面，得益于流动性充裕与 科技叙事催化，中小盘成长股表现相对占优；利率下行背景下高股息资产吸引力相对提升但配置仍偏结 构性。配置层面：1.持续关注并购重组、破净修复等政策支持领域。2.景气回升并且受关税影响不大的 领域，例如AI产业链中的云计算、算力等基础设施环节，再到机器人、智能驾驶等应用环节，我们认 为仍是重要主线。此外，部分对美敞口不高的出口链，如工程机械、电网设备、商用车等也值得关注。 3.现金流优质、与外需关联度不高的红利板块，例如水电、电信运营商、食品饮料、银行等行业的龙头 公司。 NO.3中信建投：啤酒销量反弹，关注旺季改善 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the food and beverage industry [4]. Core Viewpoints - The new consumption trend continues, focusing on low-priced/undervalued stocks with potential catalysts, particularly in the food sector, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - The report highlights the need to pay attention to the white liquor sector, which may face pressure in the second quarter, suggesting a focus on leading brands with strong market positions [16][29]. Summary by Sections White Liquor Sector - The white liquor sector is currently under pressure, with a recommendation to prioritize leading brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Shanxi Fenjiu for mid-term investments [16][29]. - Recent policies regarding public receptions may impact white liquor consumption, but the overall effect is expected to be limited due to a shift from government to business consumption since 2016 [7][16]. - The report notes that the white liquor sector is still in a bottoming phase, with opportunities for mid-term positioning in leading brands [4][16]. Consumer Goods Sector - The consumer goods sector shows a continuation of the new consumption trend, with a focus on potential catalysts in food categories, new retail channels, and health products [2][29]. - Recommended stocks in this sector include Jin Zai Foods, New Dairy, Anji Foods, and others, with a focus on companies that can leverage new retail opportunities [2][29]. Market Performance - From May 26 to May 30, the Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.08%, while non-dairy beverages and other liquor categories saw gains of 8.96% and 7.93%, respectively, with white liquor declining by 2.80% [2][35]. - Specific stocks such as Tianyoude Liquor and Huazhi Liquor showed positive performance, while others like Luzhou Laojiao and Shanxi Fenjiu experienced declines [3][39]. Price Trends - The report provides insights into the pricing trends of key white liquor brands, indicating stable prices for Guizhou Moutai and Wuliangye, with slight fluctuations noted [15][55].

同时，说明公司控股股东或者受控股股东、实际控制人支配的股东持有公司的股份存在质押的具体情 况，及其对公司控制权和业务经营的影响，是否构成《境内企业境外发行证券和上市管理试行办法》第 八条规定的境外上市禁止性情形。 智通财经APP获悉，5月30日，中国证监会公布境外发行上市备案补充材料要求公示(2025年5月23日— 2025年5月29日)。证监会要求三只松鼠补充说明公司及下属公司经营范围涉及出版物零售、广告设计及 代理、酒类经营的具体情况，是否实际开展并取得必要的资质许可，经营范围及实际业务经营是否涉及 限制或禁止外商投资领域，本次发行上市前后是否持续符合外商投资准入政策要求。据港交所4月25日 披露，三只松鼠递表港交所，中信证券为其独家保荐人。 说明公司及下属公司是否涉及开发、运营网站、小程序、APP、公众号等产品，是否涉及向第三方提供 信息内容，提供信息内容的类型以及信息内容安全保护措施；同时说明收集及储存的用户信息规模、数 据收集使用情况，上市前后个人信息保护和数据安全的安排或措施。 财务方面，于2022年度、2023年度、2024年度，三只松鼠收入分别约为72.93亿元、71.15亿元、106.22 ...

Core Viewpoint - Lulumei has successfully transformed the niche fruit of green plums into a significant industry, achieving over 1.6 billion yuan in annual revenue and contributing to local agricultural development and farmer income [3][4]. Company Overview - Founded in 2009, Lulumei started as a small enterprise in Wuhu, Anhui, focusing on deep processing of green plums, which were previously underappreciated [4]. - The company has grown to become a major player in the leisure snack industry, with plans for an IPO to further expand its operations [3][4]. Market Context - The Chinese leisure snack market has seen continuous growth, increasing from 410 billion yuan in 2010 to 1,165.4 billion yuan in 2022, with projections to reach 1,237.8 billion yuan by 2027 [3]. - Lulumei's parent company, Lulumei Fruit Garden, submitted an IPO application to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in April 2023, aiming to capitalize on this growing market [3]. Financial Performance - The latest prospectus indicates projected revenues of 1.174 billion yuan, 1.322 billion yuan, and 1.616 billion yuan for 2022, 2023, and 2024, respectively, with net profits of 68 million yuan, 99 million yuan, and 148 million yuan [3]. Production and Supply Chain - Approximately 60% of the funds raised from the IPO will be allocated to capacity expansion and supply chain optimization, including projects in Anhui and Guangxi [3]. - The company employs a "five unification" policy with farmers, ensuring stable supply and pricing through unified seed supply, technical training, agricultural input standards, guaranteed purchase prices, and financial services [7]. Agricultural Impact - The green plum industry has become a crucial economic pillar in the Wuhu region, with over 20,000 acres planted, generating an estimated 2 billion yuan in total industry output [9]. - Lulumei has expanded its agricultural network beyond Anhui, promoting green plum cultivation in six cities and fourteen counties, and engaging in international partnerships for plum products [9]. Innovation and Technology - The company has embraced technological innovation, achieving 100% digitalization in its production processes, which enhances efficiency and product quality [6]. - Lulumei's approach combines technology, farmer support, and industry collaboration to drive agricultural transformation and regional economic development [6].

Core Viewpoint - The company, Three Squirrels, is advancing its plans for an IPO on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, having submitted its application and received acceptance from the China Securities Regulatory Commission, amidst challenges in the snack food industry and a shift in its business model [1][4][14]. Company Development - Founded in 2012, Three Squirrels quickly capitalized on e-commerce trends, achieving significant sales growth and market recognition, particularly in the nut category [4][6]. - The company expanded its product range beyond nuts to over 600 SKUs and attempted to establish a multi-channel presence through offline stores [6][9]. - However, the company faced challenges such as reliance on contract manufacturers leading to food safety issues and a high dependency on a single product category, nuts, which accounted for over 60% of revenue [8][9]. Financial Performance - Three Squirrels experienced a decline in revenue from 101.73 billion yuan in 2019 to 71.15 billion yuan in 2023, with a nearly 70% drop in market capitalization [9]. - In 2024, the company reported a revenue of 10.62 billion yuan, a 49.3% increase from the previous year, and a net profit of 407.74 million yuan, an 85.51% increase [10][12]. - The company initiated a strategic transformation in 2022, focusing on self-production and a shift to a "D+N" model, which contributed to a "V-shaped rebound" in 2024 [10][12]. Market Challenges - The snack food industry is experiencing intense competition from low-cost brands, forcing Three Squirrels to consider mergers and acquisitions to maintain market share [18][21]. - The company's sales expenses increased significantly, with a 50.92% rise to 1.868 billion yuan, impacting profit margins [20][21]. - The company is also facing challenges in expanding its offline presence, with only 3% of its store expansion plan realized [9][18]. Future Outlook - The IPO aims to raise funds for supply chain upgrades (40%), channel expansion (30%), product innovation (20%), and strategic acquisitions (5%) [14]. - The company has set an ambitious target of reaching 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2026, which could position it as a leader in the global snack food market if successful [21].

Core Insights - The article discusses the strategic transformation of Three Squirrels as it aims to return to a revenue scale of over 10 billion yuan in 2024, with a focus on full-category and full-channel expansion [2][3] - The CEO, Zhang Liaoyuan, describes 2025 as a "year of rebirth" for the company, emphasizing the need for brands to navigate the challenges of diminishing traffic dividends and intensified competition [2][3] Strategic Transformation - Three Squirrels has submitted an application for a dual listing on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, marking a shift from an e-commerce model to a "manufacturing-oriented private brand retailer" [3] - The company aims to create a "super supply chain" that integrates manufacturing, branding, and retail, thereby shortening the delivery chain and providing consumers with high-quality and affordable products [3][4] Market Position and Financial Performance - In 2024, Three Squirrels reported a revenue of 10.622 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%, and a net profit of 408 million yuan, up 85.51% [3] - The company anticipates that 2025 will be a pivotal year for many traditional brands, with a shift in competition from price to innovation [4] Channel and Product Expansion - Three Squirrels is expanding its product offerings to include various sub-brands such as pet food, pre-packaged meals, and beverages, with plans to launch 33 sub-brands [7] - The company is also focusing on offline sales, which accounted for 30% of total revenue in 2024, with a significant increase in offline distribution revenue [9][10] Challenges and Opportunities - The company faces challenges in diversifying its product categories while maintaining brand recognition, as consumers may associate the brand primarily with nuts [7][8] - The offline market presents a significant growth opportunity, with Three Squirrels aiming to double its offline distribution by 2025 [9][10] Future Plans - Three Squirrels plans to open 20 new stores for its all-category lifestyle brand by 2025, indicating a shift in its offline store strategy [11] - The company is also exploring partnerships and acquisitions to enhance its market presence and operational efficiency [5][10]