Group 1: Aviation Sector - The aviation sector is expected to see strong demand during the summer peak season, with a recommendation to focus on pre-peak investment opportunities. The industry has gradually emerged from the low-demand season since March, with rational pricing strategies from airlines supporting demand [3][12]. - In 2024, the total revenue of six listed airlines is projected to reach 521.8 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a tax pre-profit of 3 billion yuan, a significant recovery from a loss of 9 billion yuan in 2023. Different airlines show varying degrees of profit improvement [10][12]. - The report highlights that the international oil price decline will significantly enhance airline profits. A 5% drop in Brent crude oil prices could increase the pre-tax profits of major airlines by 29 billion yuan for Air China and 23 billion yuan for Eastern Airlines [14][15]. Group 2: Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery sector is anticipated to maintain strong growth resilience, with business volumes expected to increase by 21.5% in 2024 and 21.6% in Q1 2025. The total business volume for 2024 is projected to reach 1.758 billion pieces [32][35]. - The market concentration in the express delivery industry is on the rise, with the CR8 index expected to reach 85.2% in 2024 and 86.9% in Q1 2025, indicating a more consolidated market [32][35]. - Revenue for the express delivery industry is forecasted to grow by 13.8% in 2024, reaching 1.4 trillion yuan, with a slight pressure on average ticket prices, which are expected to decline by 14.2% [35][36]. Group 3: Dividend and Asset Value - The report emphasizes the value of dividend assets in the transportation sector, with cash dividend ratios for highways, railways, and ports projected at 51%, 47%, and 36% respectively for 2024, indicating strong cash flow stability [44][45]. - The TTM dividend yields for these sectors are expected to be 3.0% for highways, 3.3% for railways, and 2.3% for ports, reflecting a stable increase compared to previous years [44][45]. Group 4: Shipping Sector - The shipping sector faces short-term pressure due to US-China tariff disputes, but structural opportunities may arise. The report suggests that the tariff situation could lead to a shift in import demands, particularly for agricultural products, which may benefit dry bulk shipping [48][56]. - Historical data indicates that previous trade disputes have led to increased shipping rates for certain routes, suggesting potential for similar outcomes in the current context [48][56].

Market Performance Review - The A-share market experienced slight declines, with most major indices falling, except for the ChiNext Index, which was the only major index to rise, primarily driven by blue-chip stocks [3][12] - The performance of the A-share market was influenced by external political events, including the Israel-Iran conflict, which heightened global market risk aversion and led to significant increases in gold and oil prices [3][16] - The overall market did not establish a new trading theme, continuing the pattern of new consumption stocks rising and then retreating, alongside the valuation recovery of innovative pharmaceuticals [3][16] A-share High-Frequency Data Tracking - The personal investor sentiment index showed slight recovery, with a 7-day moving average of 4.6% as of June 14, up from -4.0% on June 7, indicating a shift from persistent pessimism to a more normalized trading phase [4][17] - The financing transaction volume in the A-share market has seen a notable decline, reflecting a decrease in investor enthusiasm, although there was a slight net inflow this week [20] - The current state of industry rotation is characterized by high speed and low intensity, suggesting a market environment prone to sideways movement [21][23] Future Market Outlook and Investment Views - The report anticipates continued market volatility, with external factors such as US tariffs and the Israel-Iran conflict potentially causing further impacts on the A-share market [4][30] - The A-share market may see upward movement during the internal policy window in July, with expectations for stimulus policies in consumption and real estate sectors [4][30] - The recommendation is to focus on dividend stocks with good value, particularly in sectors like banking, transportation, and utilities, while waiting for clearer internal demand stimulus policies to catalyze traditional consumption trades [5][30]

ETF Industry News - Major indices experienced fluctuations with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, Shenzhen Component down 0.26%, and ChiNext down 0.31. Multiple transportation sector ETFs saw gains, including the Logistics Express ETF (516530.SH) up 1.23%, Logistics ETF (516910.SH) up 1.15%, and Transportation ETF (561320.SH) up 0.93 [1] - The logistics industry is expected to maintain rapid growth in 2024, despite a decline in package value and ticket prices due to trends towards smaller packages. Rail passenger volume is projected to grow at a double-digit rate in 2024, while road freight and passenger transport will continue to increase [1] - In the ETF market, as of the end of April, the Shanghai Stock Exchange had 680 ETFs with a total market value of 2.96 trillion yuan and total shares of 1.75 trillion. The Shenzhen Stock Exchange had 467 ETFs with a total market value of 1.09 trillion yuan and total shares of 866.68 billion [3][4] - The top three brokers in terms of ETF trading volume on the Shanghai Stock Exchange in April were Huatai Securities, China Galaxy, and CITIC Securities, with market shares of 10.94%, 8.52%, and 7.94% respectively [4] - The overall performance of ETFs showed that strategy-based ETFs had the best average return of 0.43%, while thematic ETFs had the worst average return of -0.37% [11] - The top three performing stock ETFs for the day were Communication ETF (515880.SH) with a return of 1.42%, 800 Cash Flow ETF (563990.SH) with 1.37%, and 180 Governance ETF (510010.SH) with 1.24% [13] - The top three stock ETFs by trading volume were A500 ETF Fund (512050.SH) with 2.798 billion yuan, A500 Index ETF (159351.SZ) with 2.533 billion yuan, and CSI 300 ETF (510300.SH) with 2.130 billion yuan [17]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the transportation industry, particularly highlighting opportunities in the shipping and port sectors [4]. Core Insights - The transportation industry is experiencing a mixed performance, with shipping and port sectors under pressure while the express delivery sector continues to grow [1][2]. - The shipping market is expected to recover gradually, with signs of improvement in oil transportation and a stable outlook for port operations despite recent challenges [1][25]. - The express delivery sector is projected to maintain robust growth, although average ticket prices are declining due to increased competition and a shift towards lower-value packages [1][3]. Summary by Sections Shipping and Port Sector - In Q1 2025, the oil transportation market started weakly, with VLCC market performance significantly lower than the same period last year. The overall revenue for 14 listed shipping companies in 2024 was CNY 364.97 billion, a 26.47% increase year-on-year, while net profit rose by 68.72% to CNY 66.79 billion [13][19]. - The port sector showed relative stability in performance, with 18 listed port companies reporting a total revenue of CNY 222.90 billion in 2024, a slight increase of 0.62%, but net profit decreased by 21.78% to CNY 32.22 billion [26][30]. Aviation and Airport Sector - The aviation industry is witnessing a divergence in performance, with traditional full-service airlines facing challenges while low-cost carriers are gaining market share. The overall passenger traffic is recovering, but ticket prices remain weak, impacting profitability [1][2]. - Airport non-aeronautical revenues are under pressure due to new tax agreements affecting profit margins. For instance, the new duty-free agreement at Shanghai Airport has reduced profit elasticity [1][2]. Express Delivery Sector - The express delivery industry in 2024 is expected to see a business volume of 174.5 billion packages, a 21% increase year-on-year, with total revenue reaching CNY 1.4 trillion, up 13% [1][2]. - The average ticket price for express delivery has decreased from CNY 9.1 to CNY 8.0 due to the increasing proportion of low-value packages and heightened competition among leading companies [1][2]. Road and Rail Sector - The railway passenger volume growth reached double digits in 2024, with a total of 4.31 billion passengers, a year-on-year increase of 11.9%. The total freight volume was 5.17 billion tons, up 2.8% [1][2]. - The road transport sector also showed growth, with freight volume reaching 41.88 billion tons, a 3.8% increase, and passenger transport volume at 11.78 billion, up 7% [1][2].

Group 1 - Public funds are preparing for the second half of the year, with a significant increase in attention towards dividend assets, which are viewed as stable components in investment portfolios [1][2] - The average returns of active equity funds have shown recovery, with ordinary stock funds and mixed equity funds returning 2.13% and 2.28% respectively year-to-date as of April 30, and a one-year return of 6.95% [1] - The price-performance ratio of dividend assets, such as the CSI Dividend Index, is at the 99th percentile of the past decade, indicating that these assets are currently among the most cost-effective options [2] Group 2 - Certain low-volatility sectors with high dividend yields, such as banking, ports, hydropower, and logistics, are expected to perform steadily due to stable earnings and favorable dividend sustainability [3] - The Hong Kong stock market shows a valuation advantage for high-dividend stocks, supported by a conducive market environment for their performance [3] - Regulatory policies enhancing dividend oversight, combined with a low-interest-rate environment, are likely to accelerate the entry of long-term capital into the market, maintaining the investment value of Hong Kong dividend stocks [3]

板块市场回顾 本周（4/27-4/30）交运指数下跌 1.3%，沪深 300 指数下跌 0.4%，跑输大盘 0.8%，排名 21/29。交运子板块中公路涨 幅最大(+0.4%)，公交板块跌幅最大(-3.7%)。 行业观点 交运板块年报一季报总结：2024 年及 1Q2025 交运板块营收利润同比增长。2024 年交运板块实现营业收入 35549 亿 元，同比+2.0%，航运、航空、快递等板块收入增量大；实现归母净利润 1920 亿元，同比+13.8%，航运、航空业绩增 量大。1Q2025 交运板块实现营业收入 8369 亿元，同比+3.4%，航运、快递等板块收入增量大；实现归母净利润 472 亿 元，同比+2.3%，航运板块业绩增量大。1Q2025 公路、铁路、港口、航空等板块环比 4Q2024 业绩明显增长。 快递：3 月快递业务量同比增长 20.3%，单票收入同比下降 8.2%。上周（4 月 21 日-4 月 27 日）邮政快递累计揽收量 约 40.75 亿件，环比+3.2%，同比+19.9%；累计投递量约 40.58 亿件，环比+3.2%，同比+22.4%。2025 年 3 月，快递业 务收入完成 12 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the transportation industry [1] Core Insights - The report highlights that U.S. sanctions against Iran are intensifying, and OPEC has reached a consensus to increase production, indicating upward potential for the oil tanker sector [2][7] - The express delivery business volume has shown significant year-on-year growth, with a reported increase of 21.5% in 2024 [3] Summary by Sections Weekly Focus - The U.S. government has announced additional sanctions against Iran, targeting several individuals, entities, and vessels involved in Iranian oil exports, including 10 VLCC supertankers, which constitutes about 20% of the global tanker fleet [7] - OPEC has agreed to gradually increase production starting April, aiming to release 2.2 million barrels per day [7] Industry Data Tracking (2025.03.09 – 03.15) Aviation Data - Domestic flight volume for the week was 84,029 flights, averaging 12,004 flights per day, a slight decrease of 0.10% week-on-week and 0.50% year-on-year [10] - Domestic passenger volume reached 11.43 million, a 0.05% increase week-on-week and a 2.12% increase year-on-year [11] - The average domestic ticket price decreased by 3.49% week-on-week and 6.31% year-on-year [11] Express Delivery Data - For the week of March 3-9, the average daily collection volume was approximately 555 million pieces, a 3.99% increase from the previous week [17] - Year-to-date, the average daily collection volume is about 495 million pieces, reflecting a 36.00% increase year-on-year [17] - In 2024, the express delivery business volume increased by 21.5% year-on-year, with revenue up by 13.8% [3] Shipping Data - The BDI index for dry bulk shipping was reported at 1,517 points, a 20% increase week-on-week [48] - The VLCC-TCE rate was $38,329 per day, a 3% decrease week-on-week [49] Recent Key Reports - The report recommends focusing on companies such as COSCO Shipping Energy, Shandong Highway, and China Eastern Airlines, among others, as part of the investment strategy [4]

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in several companies within the aviation and logistics sectors, including China National Aviation (601111.SH), Southern Airlines (600029.SH), and Huamao Logistics (603128.SH) [9]. Core Insights - The report highlights the recovery of air travel demand, with domestic ASK (Available Seat Kilometers) for major airlines exceeding 100% of 2019 levels, indicating a strong rebound in the aviation sector [19][22]. - The logistics sector is expected to benefit from the growth of cross-border e-commerce, driven by domestic demand and the expansion of local manufacturing brands [8]. - The report emphasizes the importance of smart logistics and digital transformation in enhancing operational efficiency and meeting consumer demands [63][66]. Summary by Sections Aviation and Airports - As of December 2024, domestic ASK recovery rates for major airlines reached 132.45% for China National Aviation and 153.98% for Spring Airlines compared to 2019 [19]. - International flight recovery rates vary, with the UK at 112% and Italy at 122% compared to 2019 [22]. - The report notes that the optimism surrounding airport duty-free agreements has been priced in, with future international passenger flow recovery being a key focus [7]. Shipping and Ports - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) reported a value of 1436 points as of March 7, 2025, reflecting a week-on-week decrease of 5.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.83% [28]. - The BDTI (Baltic Dirty Tanker Index) was at 879 points, down 0.86% week-on-week and down 26.01% year-on-year [33]. - The report indicates a significant decline in shipping rates across various routes, with the CCFI (China Containerized Freight Index) showing a decrease of 7.70% year-on-year [28]. Road and Rail - In December 2024, railway freight volume increased by 8.46% year-on-year, reaching 4.59 million tons, while road freight volume grew by 9.94% to 37.74 million tons [39][46]. - The report highlights the expansion of rail capacity in the southwest region, enhancing operational efficiency [60]. Express Logistics - The express delivery sector achieved a revenue of 137.89 billion yuan in December 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 13.60% [49]. - The average price per express delivery item decreased by 13.61% to 7.75 yuan [49]. - The report emphasizes the growth potential in the express logistics sector, driven by e-commerce and the development of differentiated competitive advantages among leading companies [8].