证 券 研 究 报 告 【策略专题】 赋时间以价值——时间调查公报解析 单位时间价值的变化揭示着居民活动从追逐城镇化进程及产业规模扩张，向个 人发展质量提升的逻辑转换。从单位时间价值的增速来看，2008-2018 年交通 出行、学习培训、睡觉休息的年均增速较高，背后是中国城镇化扩张期下劳动 力流动的需求；2018-2024 年文娱社交、劳动就业、购买商品或服务、运动健 身、个护的增速较为可观，背后主要是经济转型期下对个人发展质量的追求。 各活动单位时间价值变动原因解析：从城镇化红利到个人发展需求。 对单位时间价值的分子端产生价值量和分母端活动小时进行拆分解析，其变化 原因主要为： 技术革新：互联网使用时长倍增，直播电商缩减购物时间； 人口结构：老龄化使得劳动适龄人口占比下滑，平均劳动就业时长缩短； 消费升级：文娱社交、高端美妆代表的悦己消费与运动健身代表的健康观念正 催化新消费增长极； 城镇化映射：地产周期变化对应睡觉休息价值量变动，交通出行单位时间价值 增速先增后降反应城镇化扩张与走缓。 统计局行业分类视角下各行业单位时间人均产出：各行业单位时间人均产出= 人均 GDP 产出/就业人员平均工作时间。 从单位 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the tax deduction policy for research and development (R&D) expenses, highlighting the eligibility criteria, benefits, and specific conditions for various industries and activities [2][5][20]. Group 1: Eligible Entities - Resident enterprises with sound accounting practices that can accurately collect R&D expenses are eligible for the tax deduction, excluding industries such as tobacco manufacturing, accommodation and catering, wholesale and retail, real estate, leasing and business services, and entertainment [4][9]. Group 2: Benefits of the Policy - R&D expenses that do not form intangible assets can be deducted at 100% of the actual amount incurred starting from January 1, 2023. For expenses that form intangible assets, they can be amortized at 200% of the cost [6][7]. - For integrated circuit and industrial mother machine enterprises, R&D expenses that do not form intangible assets can be deducted at 120% of the actual amount incurred from January 1, 2023, to December 31, 2027. For expenses that form intangible assets, they can be amortized at 220% of the cost during the same period [7]. Group 3: Conditions for Enjoying Benefits - R&D activities must be systematic and aimed at acquiring new scientific and technological knowledge or significantly improving technology, products, or processes. Certain activities, such as routine upgrades or direct applications of existing research, do not qualify for the tax deduction [9][10]. - Enterprises must maintain accurate accounting records for R&D expenses and set up auxiliary accounts for each R&D project to track deductible expenses [9]. Group 4: Special Cases - For commissioned R&D activities, expenses incurred by domestic external institutions can be included at 80% of the actual amount for tax deduction purposes. For commissioned overseas R&D, the same percentage applies, but the total cannot exceed two-thirds of the eligible domestic R&D expenses [11][12]. - In collaborative R&D projects, each party can determine the allocation of R&D expenses based on their actual contributions [13][16]. Group 5: Reporting and Compliance - Taxpayers can choose to enjoy the tax deduction for R&D expenses incurred in the first half of the year or the first three quarters during the prepayment declaration periods in July and October. If not chosen, they can still opt for the deduction during the annual tax settlement [19]. Group 6: Policy References - The article references several official documents that outline the tax deduction policy for R&D expenses, including notifications and announcements from the Ministry of Finance and the State Taxation Administration [21][22].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced narrow fluctuations, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing up 0.04% at 3388.81 points, the Shenzhen Component rising 0.24%, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 0.23%[1] - The Hang Seng Index fell by 1.12% to close at 23710.69 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.46% and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 1.16%[1] - The total market turnover in Hong Kong decreased to 1819.29 million HKD[1] Economic Indicators - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with projections indicating two potential rate cuts by the end of the year[8] - The Fed's dot plot suggests a downward revision in GDP growth forecasts, alongside an increase in unemployment and inflation expectations[8] - The U.S. consumer confidence index for June showed a preliminary value of 60.50, compared to previous values of 52.20 and 53.60[17] Geopolitical Developments - Tensions escalated as Iran refused to surrender, with President Trump convening a war room meeting, although no final decision on military action was made[8] - Reports indicated that the U.S. might attack Iran within 24 hours if negotiations fail[12] Sector Performance - The oil and gas sector continued to rise, while precious metals showed significant gains[1] - The banking sector led the gains in the A-share market, reflecting investor confidence amid economic uncertainties[1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the China Small and Medium Enterprises Association indicates a recovery in the development index for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), reflecting the positive impact of government policies aimed at supporting these businesses [1][2]. Group 1: SME Development Index - In May, the SME Development Index (SMEDI) rose to 89.5, an increase of 0.3 points from April, ending a two-month decline and indicating a clear recovery trend [1]. - All sub-indices, including macroeconomic sentiment, comprehensive operation, market, funding, labor, input, and efficiency indices, showed improvement compared to April, while the cost index remained stable [1]. - Various industries, including manufacturing, transportation, real estate, wholesale and retail, information transmission, software, and accommodation and catering, experienced rising indices, indicating overall stability and improvement in industry operations [1]. Group 2: Government Support Initiatives - A collaborative initiative involving 17 government departments has launched the "Together Benefit Enterprises" action plan for SMEs, introducing 73 measures to enhance policy support, environmental improvement, innovation, talent development, and legal protection [2]. - The "Hundred Events, Ten Thousand Enterprises" initiative aims to facilitate market expansion for SMEs through various activities [2]. - Financial institutions have reportedly provided over 18 trillion yuan in new credit to SMEs as part of a coordinated financing support mechanism [2]. Group 3: Challenges Facing SMEs - Despite the positive trends, SMEs still face significant challenges, including cautious lending practices from financial institutions due to their small scale, lack of management standards, and insufficient collateral [3]. - Market competition remains tough, particularly for private enterprises that often deal with delayed payments and discrimination [3]. - SMEs struggle with limited funding and talent, leading to inadequate investment in technology and innovation, which hampers their competitiveness [3]. Group 4: Policy Recommendations - Effective policy implementation is crucial, with fiscal and tax incentives tailored to different regions and industries to alleviate the burden on SMEs [4]. - Monetary policy should encourage financial institutions to increase credit availability and reduce financing costs for SMEs [4]. - A fair market environment is essential, requiring the elimination of discriminatory regulations and ensuring timely payments from larger enterprises and government entities to SMEs [4].

根据人民银行发布的5月金融数据，我国金融运行整体呈现出总量稳定增长、结构持续优化的特征。从 总量来看，广义货币（M2）余额325.78万亿元，同比增长7.9%，维持在中高速增长区间；社会融资规 模存量426.16万亿元，同比增速8.7%，与上月持平。年初以来社融增量达18.63万亿元，同比多增3.83万 亿元，显示金融对实体经济的支持力度持续加大。从结构来看，金融数据主要表现出以下四个变化，反 映了当前经济运行中的趋势性特点。 最后，活期存款增速明显加快。5月末，M1同比增长2.3%，较上月增长0.8个百分点。M1属于支付交易 较为便利的"活钱"，反映经济中的现实购买力，M1的增加表明一揽子金融支持措施对提振市场需求起 到的提振作用。相比于新增人民币贷款的同比微降，5月新增人民币存款出现了较大的同比增幅。近年 来我国金融市场发展迅速，理财产品种类日益丰富，存款与理财之间的资金流动变得更加频繁。近期中 美经贸高层会谈取得实质性进展，市场预期改善促进股票市场回升，但债市收益率有所上行，使得部分 投资于债券的理财资管产品资金向居民存款和证券公司客户保证金存款回流。 总之，当前金融运行呈现出总量适度、结构优化的特征。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company plans to sell its real estate development assets and liabilities to its controlling shareholder, aiming to shift focus towards property services and asset management, thereby achieving a strategic transformation to a light asset operation model [7][9][22]. Transaction Overview - The transaction involves a cash acquisition of real estate development-related assets and liabilities for a nominal price of 1 yuan [7][23]. - The transaction is classified as a major asset restructuring and constitutes a related party transaction, as the buyer is the controlling shareholder [25][27]. Financial Impact - Post-transaction, the company's total assets are expected to decrease by 98.11% to 203,598.71 million yuan, while total liabilities will drop by 99.15% to 81,790.42 million yuan [10][28]. - The asset-liability ratio will improve significantly from 89.75% to 40.17%, a reduction of 49.58 percentage points [10][28]. - The company anticipates a substantial increase in net profit from -639,605.40 million yuan to 9,785.76 million yuan, representing a 101.53% improvement [10][28]. Strategic Goals - The company aims to enhance its competitive advantage by focusing on property management and asset management, aligning with the strategic direction of its parent group [9][26]. - The restructuring is expected to optimize the company's business structure, support sustainable development, and protect the interests of minority shareholders [9][26][22]. Approval Process - The transaction has undergone necessary internal approvals, including review by independent directors, and will require further regulatory approvals [11][12]. - The controlling shareholder has expressed principle support for the transaction, committing to adhere to relevant regulations regarding shareholding during the process [12][13].

证券研究报告|宏观点评报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 06 月 16 日 [Table_Title] 5 月零售加速，不只是国补 6 月 16 日，统计局公布 5 月经济数据。如何看待经济数据的边际变化？ 第一，外贸仍有压力，拖累工业生产，预计 6 月外贸拖累有望下降。5 月工业增加值同比 5.8%，较前月放 缓 0.3 个百分点。出口交货值同比增长 0.6%，较前月的 0.9%继续小幅放缓。5 月 12 日中美达成日内瓦协议， 对美出口订单在 5 月中下旬可能逐渐释放，对 5 月工业生产拉动还不明显，或更多体现在 6-7 月数据上。从对美 发船数据来看，6 月上旬已从 5 月下旬的同比-20%回到 0 附近。8 月开始出口能否维持较高增速，取决于前期透 支的出口需求和新协议达成的关税税率。 二季度 GDP 同比 5%+或可期。5 月服务业生产指数同比较前月小幅加快 0.2 个百分点至 6.2%。综合 5 月 工业和服务业加权同比增长 6.1%，较 4 月的 6.0%略有加快，4-5 月平均值与一季度基本持平。如 6 月工业服务 业加权同比仍在 5.5-6.0%区间，二季度 GDP 同比将达 5 ...

宏观研究 证 券 研 究 报 告 【每周经济观察】 四个关系看居民工资 主要观点 ❖ 前言：本周主要聚焦居民工资。国内居民工资的调查来自季度的居民住户调查 以及年度的劳动工资调查。我们从四个关系予以分析目前的工资情况。包括可 支配收入中工资的占比（收入有多依赖工资）、不同群体工资增速的强与弱、 工资总额的分配变化、工资增速与转移性支出增速的比较（工资扣除项）。 ❖ 一、可支配收入中有多少来自工资？ 根据居民住户调查，2024 年，全国居民人均可支配收入 41314 元，全国居民 人均工资性收入 23327 元，即可支配收入中来自工资性收入的比重为 56.5%。 2025 年 1 季度，这一比例为 57.3%，从 2013 年以来的同期数据来看，这一比 例属于历史同期偏高水平。 关于工资数据，需要强调的是不包括单位缴纳的社保和公积金（注：资金流量 表中的劳动者报酬包括），包括现金收入和实物收入，包含个人所得税、个人 缴纳的社会保险等的应发收入。 ❖ 二、哪些群体的工资增速更快？ （一）分城乡：农村居民工资增速更高 2024 年城镇居民人均工资性收入增速为 5.04%，与 GDP 增速基本持平。农村 居民人均工资 ...

去年很多存款搬家去了债券市场赚差价，可现如今债券市场也不好赚钱了，资金又流回银行存成了定期。 先把刚出来的最新的 5 月金融数据，分析一波。 代表经济活跃度的 M1 ，增速 2.3% ，升至一年来的新高。这里面的核心原因是因为去年打击存款补息， 把基数拉得很低，参考意义不大。更关键点是环比数据，比上个月减少了2307亿元，说明企业和居民手里 的活钱又变少了，老问题还是没解决，消费和投资的意愿还在往下掉。广义货币供应量M2增速7.9%，增 速同样不低。 钱不少，但是都在银行手里捂着呢。 从最新的数据来看，前五个月住户存款增加了 8.3 万亿，全国人民存在银行的钱，又重新突破 160 万亿规 模。 周末有不少卖方在吹社融数据很好。 社会融资规模增加 2.3 万亿，同比多增 2271 亿元，月末增速 8.7% ，与上个月持平。和过去五年同期做 个横向对比，今年 5 月的社融属于次高水平，仅低于 2022 年。 乍一看总数，是一份相当亮眼的数据，可拆开来看，结构问题仍然存在。 从上面的图，最后一栏就是政府债券。 看看这条有多长，就会发现新增主要靠的是什么了，就是政府发债。 整个 5 月政府债券增加 14633 亿元， ...

6月6日，卧龙新能（600173.SH）公告披露，其收到上海证券交易所上市公司监管一部下发的《关于对 卧龙新能源集团股份有限公司重大资产出售暨关联交易草案信息披露的问询函》（上证公函【2025】 0775号）。 中经记者 陈家运 北京报道 此次问询主要围绕卧龙新能重大资产出售事项。在5月23日，卧龙新能披露《重大资产出售暨关联交易 报告书（草案）》（以下简称《草案》），计划以现金方式向浙江卧龙舜禹投资有限公司（卧龙新能间 接控股股东——卧龙控股集团有限公司的全资子公司）出售其持有的卧龙矿业90%股权。 针对此次交易问题，《中国经营报》记者致电并发函卧龙新能，但截至发稿，未获回复。中研普华研究 员吴工向记者表示，卧龙新能出售卧龙矿业90%股权，主要是为了聚焦新能源业务，实现战略转型。通 过剥离铜精矿贸易业务，公司能集中资源发展新能源（如光伏、储能、氢能等）业务。 交易被问询 卧龙新能前身为卧龙地产，是一家具有32年历史的浙江老牌房企，于1999年4月在上交所上市。近年 来，公司不断尝试跨界发展以寻求新的增长点。2022年1月，卧龙新能以6800万元现金从关联方卧龙电 驱手中收购卧龙矿业100%股权，成功进军矿产 ...