在AI的狂热与恐惧交替牵引下，市场的波动加剧。美国股市24日反弹，科技股领涨，市场对人工智能 热情重燃，盖过了对这项新兴技术可能引发颠覆性影响的担忧，软件股大幅反弹。 不过，近期备受追捧的存储牛股闪迪（SanDisk）股价遭遇空头突袭，24日股价一度大跌超8%。知名做 空机构香橼资本（Citron Research）称其持有该存储芯片制造商的空头头寸，看空理由可以被归类为三 条：存储市场存在周期性压力、来自三星的竞争加剧，以及其长期投资者已经退场。 AI热潮已经逐渐回归理性。截至美国东部时间2月24日收盘，纳斯达克指数年内下跌1.63%，这与过去 三年连续大涨逾20%形成了鲜明对比。 资本市场的残酷之处在于：它不再为"讲故事"的愿景买单，而开始向"交作业"的现实收费。未来的赢 家，未必是今天估值最高的巨头，而是那些能在技术浪潮中重构护城河、将AI转化为可持续收入的企 业。 市场情绪为何反复横跳？ 软件股反弹，存储牛股跳水，近期美股对AI的态度在担忧和期待中反复摇摆。 法国里昂商学院管理实践教授李徽徽更倾向把这轮"摇摆"理解为市场在给两条曲线重新定价：一条是AI 带来的新增需求曲线，一条是AI对旧商业模式的替代 ...

Group 1: Commercial Aerospace - Zhongke Aerospace's reusable liquid rocket, Lijian-2, is set for its maiden flight in late March 2023, carrying the prototype of China's light cargo spacecraft, with plans for four launches this year [1] - The solid rocket, Lijian-1, aims for at least eight launches this year, including two at sea, reinforcing its position in commercial launches [1] - Investment focus in the commercial aerospace sector is shifting towards core industry players, with recommendations for companies like Feiwo Technology, Western Materials, Aerospace Power, and others [1] Group 2: Semiconductor Industry - SK Hynix plans to invest 21.6 trillion KRW (approximately 15.1 billion USD) in new facilities for its semiconductor factory in Yongin, with the investment period from March 2026 to December 2030 [2] Group 3: Storage Industry - Demand for storage is driven by AI, with prices in an upward cycle; DRAM market value is expected to grow by 144% to 404.3 billion USD by 2026, while NAND Flash is projected to increase by 112% to 147.3 billion USD [3] - Recommended companies in the storage sector include Jiangbolong, Demingli, Baiwei Storage, and others [3] Group 4: Shipping Industry - Global oil tanker freight rates have surged to a near six-year high, with the cost of transporting crude oil from the Middle East to China exceeding 170,000 USD per day, tripling since the beginning of the year [5] - The shipping sector is expected to benefit from this upward trend, with companies like COSCO Shipping Energy and China Merchants Energy being highlighted as strong performers [5] Group 5: Phosphate Chemical Industry - The phosphate chemical sector has seen renewed interest, with companies like Chuanjin Nuo and Chengxing Co. experiencing significant stock price increases [5] - The U.S. has prioritized phosphorus and glyphosate as national security issues, indicating a potential for increased demand and price appreciation in the phosphate market [6] Group 6: Lithium Mining Industry - Lithium mining stocks have shown strong performance, with companies like Dazhong Mining and Jiangte Electric reaching their price limits [7] - Concerns over Zimbabwean lithium exports being hindered have contributed to market volatility, but expectations for strong demand in the battery sector remain [8] Group 7: Rare Earth Industry - Prices for rare earth products have significantly increased, with neodymium oxide averaging 882,000 CNY per ton, up 41,600 CNY from before the holiday [16] - The market is experiencing fluctuations due to export control measures, but purchasing activity is expected to gradually resume as production adjusts [17]

证券研究报告/宏观利率研究 2026 年 02 月 25 日 节前资金面宽松 十债利率站稳 1.8%下方 宏观利率周报（20260209-20260213） 研报摘要 ⚫ 核心观点：本周资金面平稳，A 股震荡、海外权益调整，不构成债市压制，市场震 荡偏强。1 月 PPI 同比稳步回升，但债市对"反内卷"计价已相对充分，降息降准靴子 落地前实际影响仍偏边际。社融数据同比多增幅度不大，开门后力度弱于去年同期，债 市多头思维或阶段延续。政策方面，四季度货币政策执行报告中有关货币财政协同、 "存款搬家"、国债买卖操作等阐述，均有利于利率筑顶。年初以来，债市呈现的"小 阳春"行情，主要由配置型资金主导推动，叠加交易盘对降准降息政策的乐观预期形成 接力效应，节后持续性仍有待观察。2 月份属于政策、经济数据空窗期，时处生产淡季， 且年初配置力量偏强、资金面宽松，整体对债市有利。在"降准降息"靴子落地前，配 置盘主导的行情或仍将延续，但空间或受限，提示 10 年国债活跃券收益率（1.78%） 向下赔率不高，建议适当把握节奏。 ⚫ 行情回顾：（1）资金面：本周临近春节长假，央行操作"呵护"意图较强，公开 市场操作净投放过万亿。 ...

【文/羽扇观金工作室 陶立烽】 在存储芯片行业一路高歌的当下，华尔街知名空头机构香橼资本（Citron Capital，也叫香橼研究）昨日 （2月24日）突然向闪迪（SNDK.US）挥出做空重拳，为这只一年涨幅超1200%的牛股蒙上阴影。 这并非香橼的首次出手，从创立之初的"股票柠檬"到狙击中概股的 "空中猎手"，再到被散户反杀、遭 监管起诉的跌宕，创始人安德鲁・莱福特的二十余年做空生涯，交织着精准狙击的传奇与游走灰色地带 的争议，成为华尔街资本市场的一道特殊风景。 闪迪年内涨幅超175%，香橼直指芯片周期泡沫 受益于存储芯片超级周期，闪迪的股价在资本市场一路狂飙，2026年不到两个月涨幅已达175%，过去 12个月累计涨幅更是突破1200%，成为市场追捧的"明星股"。但这份火热，却让香橼资本嗅到了"泡沫" 的味道，这家以做空著称的机构毅然出手，在社交媒体上公开宣布建立闪迪空头头寸，直言市场对闪迪 的定价存在"严重误判"。 闪迪在过去一年股价涨幅达1213%，2026年以来上涨175% 香橼的做空理由直击闪迪的核心软肋。在其看来，市场错误地将闪迪与英伟达等同看待，却忽略了二者 商业模式的本质差异："英伟达拥有 ...

Core Viewpoint - SanDisk (SNDK.US) has faced a significant challenge from Citron Research, which has established a short position against the company, arguing that the market has mispriced its stock amid a super cycle in storage chips [1][2]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - Citron Research asserts that the market is pricing SanDisk similarly to Nvidia (NVDA.US), despite the latter having a competitive moat, while SanDisk's products are considered commodities [2]. - The demand and price surge for NAND flash memory is viewed as a typical cyclical phenomenon, nearing its peak, with historical precedents from 2008, 2012, and 2018 suggesting a similar outcome this time [2]. - Citron warns that the current supply shortage of NAND memory could quickly reverse, potentially disappearing after a single earnings call [2]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - Samsung Electronics (SSNLF.US) is identified as a major threat to SanDisk, with Citron highlighting Samsung's strategy of prioritizing market share over profits for 30 years [2]. - Samsung is reportedly shifting tactics to directly compete in SanDisk's core market, indicating they will not sell products below a 50% gross margin and are moving their best chips into the high-end SSD market [2]. Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Concerns have been raised regarding the ongoing sell-off by Western Digital (WDC.US), a long-term investor and former parent company of SanDisk, which is divesting its remaining shares at prices 25% below current levels [3]. - Citron suggests that Western Digital's actions indicate a recognition that the cycle is nearing its peak, contrasting with the bullish sentiment being promoted to retail investors [3]. Group 4: Financial Performance - SanDisk recently reported a second-quarter earnings that exceeded Wall Street expectations, driven by strong demand for enterprise SSDs, and provided an optimistic outlook for the third quarter [4]. - The upcoming third-quarter earnings report, scheduled for May 15, is seen as a critical moment for assessing market confidence and the direction of the industry [4].

2026 年 2 月 25 日 招银国际环球市场 | 市场策略 | 招财日报 每日投资策略 全球市场观察 全球市场观察 招银国际研究部 邮件：research@cmbi.com.hk | 环球主要股市上日表现 | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 收市价 | | 升跌（%） | | | | 单日 | 年内 | | 恒生指数 | 26,590 | -1.82 | 3.74 | | 恒生国企 | 9,008 | -2.06 | 1.06 | | 恒生科技 | 5,271 | -2.13 | -4.45 | | 上证综指 | 4,117 | 0.87 | 3.74 | | 深证综指 | 2,713 | 1.23 | 7.21 | | 深圳创业板 | 3,308 | 0.99 | 3.28 | | 美国道琼斯 | 49,175 | 0.76 | 2.31 | | 美国标普 500 | 6,890 | 0.77 | 0.65 | | 美国纳斯达克 | 22,864 | 1.04 | -1.63 | | 德国 DAX | 24,986 | -0.02 | 2.02 | | 法国 CA ...

智通财经2月25日讯（编辑 胡家荣）美东时间周二，近期备受市场追捧的存储芯片龙头闪迪股价遭遇剧烈波动。知名做空机构香橼资本公开宣布持有闪迪空 头头寸，并发布详细看空报告。受此消息冲击，闪迪股价盘中一度跌近8%。 这一利空消息迅速产生连锁反应，波及港股存储概念股。截至发稿，澜起科技(06809.HK)跌6.38%，兆易创新(03986.HK)跌4.77%，显示市场对存储行业周期 性风险的担忧情绪正在蔓延。 针对市场普遍预期的"AI需求将帮助NAND闪存摆脱周期性波动"的观点，香橼资本予以驳斥。报告回顾历史指出，2008年、2012年及2018年均出现过类似行 情，但周期性规律从未改变。 香橼强调，当前的供应短缺仅是暂时现象。目前全球产能已达到2018年峰值的两倍，所谓的供应限制可能在一次财报电话会议后便烟消云散。报告直 言："英伟达拥有护城河，而闪迪销售的只是普通商品。"市场将闪迪对标英伟达进行高估值定价，存在根本性逻辑错误。 三星竞争加剧：价格战与技术挤压双重威胁 香橼资本特别强调了来自三星电子的巨大威胁。历史上，三星在存储周期中常采取"优先市场份额而非利润"的策略：先让纯闪存厂商享受高毛利，随后突然 增加供 ...

消息面上，美东时间24日周二，香橼在社交媒体发帖称，市场对闪迪的定价逻辑存在根本性错误，当前 的存储芯片供应紧张不过是"海市蜃楼"，周期顶部已近在咫尺。帖子发出后，闪迪股价周二早盘随即跳 水，跌幅一度扩大至5.7%%。香橼的介入令市场对这一强势标的的持续性产生质疑，并再度引发投资者 对存储芯片行业景气周期的担忧。 存储概念股今早走低，截至发稿，澜起科技(06809)跌4.21%，报198.1港元；兆易创新(03986)跌3.7%， 报416.2港元。 ...

美东时间周二，近期备受追捧的存储牛股闪迪（SanDisk）股价遭遇空头突袭，股价一度大跌超8%。 当天早些时候，知名做空机构香橼资本（Citron Research）发布消息称，其持有该存储芯片制造商的空头头寸。香 橼资本还详细阐述了其对于闪迪的看空原因，并强调闪迪所处存储行业面临的周期性压力。 此言对闪迪投资者们来说可谓暴击，因为此前，闪迪股价之所以大涨，正是由于投资者们押注，NAND行业可借 助人工智能带来强劲需求，摆脱周期性波动风险。 今年以来，闪迪股价已上涨 175%，过去12个月更是上涨了超过 1200%。 香橼高调看空闪迪 从香橼资本在X上的发帖来看，对于闪迪的看空理由，可以被归类为三条：存储市场存在周期性压力、来自三星的 竞争加剧，以及其长期投资这已经退场。 香橼资本首先指出，闪迪的长期投资者西部数据近期以低于当前价格25%的价格出售了其持有的大量闪迪股份，这 一行为是一个警示信号。 "当电视评论员们拍桌子叫嚣着让散户们赶紧进场时，长期投资者西部数据几天前就抛售了相当一部分持仓，折价 幅度达到25%。想想为什么？因为他们知道周期即将见顶，所以他们没有坐等警钟敲响。" 香橼紧接着谈到NAND行业难 ...

存储概念股今早走低，截至发稿，澜起科技(06809)跌4.21%，报198.1港元；兆易创新（603986） (03986)跌3.7%，报416.2港元。 消息面上，美东时间24日周二，香橼在社交媒体发帖称，市场对闪迪的定价逻辑存在根本性错误，当前 的存储芯片供应紧张不过是"海市蜃楼"，周期顶部已近在咫尺。帖子发出后，闪迪股价周二早盘随即跳 水，跌幅一度扩大至5.7%%。香橼的介入令市场对这一强势标的的持续性产生质疑，并再度引发投资者 对存储芯片行业景气周期的担忧。 ...