Core Viewpoint - Bangladesh is set to import 8.05 million bales (approximately 1.77 million tons) of cotton in the 2024-2025 period, making it the largest cotton importer globally, surpassing Vietnam and China [1] Group 1: Cotton Import and Supply - Approximately 41% of Bangladesh's cotton imports will come from Africa, totaling around 3.3 million bales (approximately 726,000 tons), establishing Africa as the largest cotton supply region for Bangladesh [1] - Major African countries exporting cotton to Bangladesh include Benin, Cameroon, Burkina Faso, and Mali [1] Group 2: Textile Industry Overview - Bangladesh has a highly developed cotton processing and textile industry, with around 4,500 factories employing 4 million people [1] - The annual cotton consumption in Bangladesh ranges between 8.5 million to 15 million bales [1] - The total export value of ready-made garments from Bangladesh is projected to be approximately $39.3 billion, covering various textile products such as pants, T-shirts, knitwear, sweaters, shirts, and underwear [1] Group 3: Value Addition Efforts - Some African countries are working to enhance the value of cotton exports; for instance, Benin plans to establish around 28 textile processing units in the Glo-Djibé industrial zone by 2032, aiming to process most of its cotton into finished or semi-finished products to increase industry chain value and economic benefits [1]

一、价格回顾 国内方面，新棉加工、销售加速推进，纺企刚需补库为主，最新发布的11月纺服类内销数据保持增长， 同时本周多部门明确未来将更大力度提振消费，改善消费预期、提振市场信心，推动国内棉价延续涨 势，郑棉最高涨至14100元/吨，达到2025年8月底以来最高水平。本周郑州棉花期货主力合约结算均价 13957元/吨，较前周上涨163元/吨，涨幅1.2%；代表内地标准级皮棉市场价格的国家棉花价格B指数均 价15081元/吨，较前周上涨121元/吨，涨幅0.8%。 （来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 【概要】本周，国内促消费政策继续发力，最新公布的11月纺服内销数据呈稳增态势，提振市场消费信 心，国内棉价延续涨势；受北半球棉花集中供应、美棉出口销售持续疲软等因素影响，外棉价格重心继 续下移，内外棉价差扩大至2021年10月以来最高水平。 宏观方面，美国通胀数据低于预期，增加美联储未来降息概率。美国11月消费者物价同比上涨2.7%， 涨幅低于预期的3.1%，受此影响，美股等金融市场普遍上涨。日本央行加息政策落地，市场反应相对 平淡。12月19日日本央行将政策利率上调25个基点至0.75%，达到30年来新高，这是 ...

长江期货棉纺产业周报 2025-12-19 长江期货股份有限公司交易咨询业务资格：鄂证监期货字{2014}1号 震荡偏强 【长期研究|棉纺团队】 研究员：黄尚海 执业编号:F0270997 投资咨询编号:Z0002826 01 周度总结 Ø 棉花：近期棉花期货现货价格均出现震荡上行走势。一方面基本面供需格局供需双增，矛盾不突出；一方面预期新年 度新疆种植政策会出现较大变化，缩减新疆棉产量。目前新疆棉现货市场比较强势，一口价销售较好，基差坚挺。纱 线端采购按部就班。预期近期棉花价格未知震荡偏强。 Ø 棉纱：目前内地不少纺织企业已面临现金流亏损的压力。尽管新疆地区的纺织企业凭借靠近原料产地、享有一定政策 支持等成本优势，目前仍能保持较高的开工负荷，但行业的整体压力已然不容小觑。后续需继续关注郑棉走势和下游 补库情况，近期部分纺企反馈有织厂开始补库，若能形成行情，有望提振市场信心，。 Ø 风险提示：商品市场共振、下游需求萎靡、天气因素影响； 02 行情回顾 | | 本間 | 周围张跌 | 周唐张跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 棍花期后看到 | 14,015.00 | [180.0 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.12.19」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 添加客服 业务咨询 目录 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格上涨，周度涨幅约1.19%。 美棉市场 行情展望：据美国农业部(USDA)报告显示，11月27日止当周，2025/26年度美国陆 地棉出口销售净增13.59万包，较前周减少8%，较前四周均值减少23%。2025/26年 度美国陆地棉出口装运量12.21万包，较前周增加1%，较前4周平均水平减少5%。 当周美国棉花出口签约量减少、装运量环比小增。国内市场：供应端，当前全国棉 花公检量已超550万吨，预计商业库存加速增长。另外，11月棉花进口量环比小幅增 加，预计进口港口库存维持增长趋势，据海关统计，2025年11月我国棉花进口总量 约12万吨，环比增加3万吨，同比增幅9.4%。需求端，下游纺企旺季采购结束，纺 企淡季特征逐渐现象，市场出货速度偏慢，预计短期棉价震荡为主。 3 图1、CFTC美棉净持仓与ICE美棉活跃合约价格走势 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 ...

当各地冬雪初落 凝成冰雪世界时 寒冬里的每一寸 寒意 都在呼唤一抹贴 身的温暖—— 或躲进厚实的棉 被中 或藏在毛绒绒的 毛衣里 寒意渐浓时，用 伽师棉花温暖整 个冬日｜疆品上 新⑫_南方+_南 方plus 或织进柔软的棉 袜中…… 当指尖抚过那些 细腻蓬松的棉制 品 暖意便会透过皮 肤蔓延开来 在众多棉制品中 新疆长绒棉因其 卓越品质脱颖而 出 伽师县 便是新疆长绒棉 的主产地之一 伽师县的棉花， 背后藏着一整片 旷野的风。伽师 县位于塔里木盆 地西侧，是典型 的暖温带大陆性 干旱气候。全年 长，2025年已达 160余万亩，总 产量22万吨以 上。 英买里镇英阿瓦提村，大型采棉机正在有序作业。 伽师棉花产业的 提质增收，得益 于当地的科技投 入。通过与中国 农科院、新疆农 科院等科研机构 合作，当地培育 出 AW05、中棉 所703等优质品 种，其中AW05 品种籽棉亩产最 高达577.44公 斤，纤维达到国 家一级标准，很 好地解决了"高 产难机采、宜机 采难优质"的行 业瓶颈。如今的 伽师棉田早已不 是"人工弯腰采 棉"的旧景象， 从搭载北斗导航 的无人驾驶播种 机进行精准播 种，到应用"干 播湿出" ...

（来源：锦桥纺织网） 来源：锦桥纺织网 项目承担：北京棉花展望信息咨询有限责任公司 监测对象：18个主要棉花生产、消费省的100家棉纺织厂 11月国内外棉市在供需变化、宏观政策等多重因素影响下，价格延续10月以来震荡走势，整体呈先跌后涨、内强外弱的特点。新棉集中上市供应增加、纺织 市场进入淡季后需求转弱，给棉价带来一定压力，而促消费政策出台、美联储降息预期回升等宏观因素又推动市场情绪回暖，棉价受到支撑，国内期现货价 格均以当月最高点报收，国际棉价则弱于国内，内外棉价差有所扩大。 一、宏观环境向好推动国内棉价上涨 11月上中旬国内新棉加工进入高峰期，上市资源持续增加，市场供应总体宽松，而纺织厂季节性需求下降，国内现货价格震荡走弱，中国棉花价格指数由月 初的14859元/吨下跌至最低14779元/吨。月下旬，相关部门联合印发《关于增强消费品供需适配性进一步促进消费的实施方案》，加上中美元首通话显示两 国关系总体稳定向好，带动市场信心回升，国内棉价持续反弹，中国棉花价格指数月底收于最高点14896元/吨，月均价14831元/吨，环比上涨67元，同比下 跌497元。 三、长绒棉需求稳定 价格保持平稳 11月下游高支纱 ...

每年金秋时节，就到了埃及长绒棉的收获季。灿烂阳光透过稀薄的云雾，洒在埃及乡下无垠的棉田上， 仿佛为大地披上一层耀眼的金纱。记者踏入这片神奇土地，耳边是微风拂过棉叶的沙沙声，眼前是棉农 们忙碌喜悦的身影，他们正手工采摘着一朵朵承载希望的"白色黄金"。 下午2时，棉农赛义德的胶鞋踩过还带着湿气的土壤，指尖轻触饱满的棉桃，裂开的果壳里，雪白的棉 絮泛着珍珠般的光泽。"这是尼罗河的馈赠，也是埃及的骄傲。"他边说边摘下一朵棉花，棉花长长的纤 维在午后的阳光中拉出细长的银丝。沿着尼罗河三角洲的棉田一路探访，埃及长绒棉从土地到市场的全 图景在记者眼前徐徐展开。 土地的馈赠："棉中白金"历史悠久 在东方省法库斯镇阿达伊达蒙村的棉田里，有着30多年种植棉花经验的赛义德蹲下身子，拨开棉株根部 的土壤，向记者展示说，"你看这土，是尼罗河每年泛滥留下的肥沃黑土，攥在手里能感觉到油性。"他 的话印证了埃及长绒棉的生长奇迹：这片被尼罗河滋养的河谷与三角洲地带，藏着埃及长绒棉的生长密 码。 赛义德解释说，每年尼罗河定期泛滥，洪水退去后，会在两岸留下一层厚厚的肥沃淤泥和砂质壤土，含 有丰富的钾、磷等矿物质和其他营养成分，其中钾含量为普通棉田 ...

每年金秋时节，就到了埃及长绒棉的收获季。灿烂阳光透过稀薄的云雾，洒在埃及乡下无垠的棉田上， 仿佛为大地披上一层耀眼的金纱。记者踏入这片神奇土地，耳边是微风拂过棉叶的沙沙声，眼前是棉农 们忙碌喜悦的身影，他们正手工采摘着一朵朵承载希望的"白色黄金"。 下午2时，棉农赛义德的胶鞋踩过还带着湿气的土壤，指尖轻触饱满的棉桃，裂开的果壳里，雪白的棉 絮泛着珍珠般的光泽。"这是尼罗河的馈赠，也是埃及的骄傲。"他边说边摘下一朵棉花，棉花长长的纤 维在午后的阳光中拉出细长的银丝。沿着尼罗河三角洲的棉田一路探访，埃及长绒棉从土地到市场的全 图景在记者眼前徐徐展开。 在当地棉花研究所，研究员穆斯塔法向记者介绍，由于品种优良、质地坚韧、抗皱性强，埃及长绒棉被 誉为"棉中白金"，主要品种有吉萨45、吉萨70和吉萨86，其中吉萨70占总产量的75%左右。赛义德 说："每公斤原棉都要经过12次筛选，才能达到吉萨70的标准要求。"据介绍，精选的原棉纤维长度一般 在33—43毫米之间，有的可达到45毫米以上，是普通棉花的1.5倍，干断裂强力比普通棉高20%—30%， 韧性足以承受高支纱；即便反复洗涤，仍能保持相当的光泽和柔软度。 "众多品牌 ...

（原标题：美国保持越南最大棉花供应国） 越南每年棉花消耗量约为150万吨，目前是世界第三大棉花进口国，同时纤维出口量位居全球第 六，纺织品出口量位居全球第三，仅次于中国和孟加拉国。据越南纺织服装协会（VITAS）称，2025 年前11个月，越南纺织服装出口额约400亿美元，同比增长6%。 越南《税务、海关在线》12月15日报道，据统计，2025年前11个月，越南棉花进口量超150万吨， 进口总额超26亿美元，进口量同比增长13%，进口额同比下降1%。 美国仍然是越南最大的棉花供应国。2025年前11个月，越南从美国进口棉花达72.3万吨（同比增长 约130%），价值12.7亿美元（同比增长约94%），占越南棉花进口总量的近47%。巴西是越南第二大棉 花供应国。2025年前11个月，越南从巴西进口棉花约41.4万吨，价值7.14亿美元。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In 2026, the cotton planting area in the US may remain stable with a slight decline, and attention should be paid to whether the planting area in the Southern Hemisphere will decrease [2][105]. - There is uncertainty about the cotton planting area under policy guidance. Although the market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the planting area in 2026, it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [2][111]. - The international economic and trade environment is gradually improving, and the phased easing of Sino - US trade relations reduces export tariffs, improving the export outlook for textiles. Coupled with the continuous expansion of Xinjiang's cotton textile production capacity, it is beneficial for domestic cotton consumption [2][111]. - The cotton price was at a low level for a long time in the 2024/2025 season, and the current valuation is in a historically low range. As the supply - demand pattern improves and market sentiment recovers, valuation repair will be an important driving force for price increases [2][111]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Market Review - **ICE Narrow - Range Fluctuation**: In 2025, the US cotton production decreased year - on - year. Due to continuous Sino - US tariff conflicts and China's small volume of signing US cotton contracts, the ICE US cotton continuous contract showed a fluctuating trend, mostly in the range of 65 - 68 cents. After the US government's record - breaking shutdown, the price center of ICE US cotton moved down since the third quarter, generally maintaining in the range of 63 - 66 cents [10]. - **ZCE First Declined and Then Rose, with Overall Low Valuation**: Supported by the downstream raw material replenishment and order - grabbing expectations, Zhengzhou cotton rose moderately at the beginning of the year. Affected by tariffs, it started to decline in late February, especially after the US announced the so - called "reciprocal tariffs" at the beginning of April, Zhengzhou cotton tumbled. After the Geneva talks between China and the US in early May, Zhengzhou cotton soared. With the marginal weakening of the negative impact of tariffs and concerns about the supply before the new cotton was listed, Zhengzhou cotton continued to rise until late July. However, due to the uncertainty of Sino - US trade relations and the expectation of new cotton production increase, the overall increase was not significant [10][11]. 3.2 Global Cotton Output Increased Slightly Year - on - Year, Focus on the Cotton Planting Area in the Southern Hemisphere - **Global Cotton Ending Stocks Increased, with Overall Low Pressure**: According to the December USDA report, compared with the previous month, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 120,000 bales, the production estimate decreased by 290,000 bales, and the consumption estimate decreased by 270,000 bales, with the ending stocks estimate increasing by 40,000 bales. In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton beginning stocks estimate increased by 1.21 million bales year - on - year, the production estimate increased by 510,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 320,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 1.36 million bales, but the overall pressure was not great [12]. - **Improved Import Demand for Textiles and Clothing in Europe and the US**: - **Consumer Confidence**: In November, the US Michigan consumer confidence index was 51, down 2.6 points month - on - month and had been declining for three consecutive months, rising to 53.3 in December. The EU consumer confidence index was - 13.6 in November, basically flat month - on - month, and - 12.4 in December, down 1.2 points month - on - month and up 5.1 points year - on - year, remaining at the highest level in the same period in the past three years since March [14]. - **Import Volume**: In September, the EU's textile and clothing imports from China, Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the US were 5.66 billion euros, up 380 million euros month - on - month and slightly up 50 million euros year - on - year. From January to September, the EU's cumulative imports from these four countries were 43.675 billion euros, up 4.213 billion euros year - on - year. In September, the US imported a total of $10.582 billion worth of textiles and clothing, down $1.161 billion year - on - year, a decrease of 9.89%. From January to September, the US's cumulative imports were $90.413 billion, down $210 million year - on - year. China's share in the US market dropped significantly, with cumulative imports from China being $16.912 billion, down $6.352 billion year - on - year, and the market share dropping by 6.96 percentage points compared with the same period last year [16]. - **开机率 in Southeast Asia**: The开机率 of Indian and Vietnamese spinning mills showed a downward trend, while that of Pakistani spinning mills showed an upward trend and was at the highest level in the same period in the past three years, performing the best [22][26]. - **Slow Progress of US Cotton Export Sign - ups**: - **High Ending Stocks and Limited Production Adjustment Space**: In December, compared with November, the US cotton production estimate decreased by 150,000 bales, the consumption estimate decreased by 100,000 bales, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 200,000 bales to 4.5 million bales. The 2025/2026 US cotton planting area was expected to be 9.3 million acres, the harvested area was estimated to be 7.37 million acres, the yield per acre was estimated to be 929 pounds, and the total production was 14.268 million bales, down 145,000 bales year - on - year [29]. - **Slow Overall Sign - ups and a Sharp Drop in China's Sign - ups**: As of the week of November 13, the weekly sign - up of 2025/26 US upland cotton was 42,600 tons, down 36% week - on - week, up 10% from the four - week average, and up 22% year - on - year. The total sign - up volume of US cotton in the 2025/26 season was 1.2706 million tons, accounting for 49% of the annual predicted total export volume, 12 percentage points slower than the same period last year. China's total sign - up volume was 37,000 tons, a significant decrease of 74% compared with the same period last year [37][42]. - **Slow US Cotton Inspection**: As of the week of December 5, 2025, the cumulative inspection volume of US upland cotton + Pima cotton was 2.0085 million tons, accounting for 65.7% of the estimated US cotton production for the year, 11% slower year - on - year. Considering the 10% production reduction this year, the inspection speed was comparable to that of last year [45]. - **Supply - Demand Situation in Other Cotton - Producing Countries**: - **Accumulated Inventory in India**: In the 2025/26 season, India's cotton beginning stocks increased by 710,000 bales year - on - year, the export volume estimate was basically flat year - on - year, the import volume estimate decreased slightly by 240,000 bales year - on - year, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 500,000 bales year - on - year to the highest level in the past three years [50]. - **Divergent Estimates of Brazilian Cotton Production**: Brazilian institutions had different forecasts for the increase or decrease of Brazilian cotton production in 2025/26, but the market expected that the cotton planting area in Brazil would be difficult to increase this season. The USDA report showed that the Brazilian cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 18.75 million bales, a 10% increase year - on - year [58][60]. - **Probable Decrease in Australian Cotton Production**: Affected by factors such as insufficient irrigation water supply, poor soil moisture during the sowing period, rising planting costs, and better returns from competing crops, Australia's cotton planting area was expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season. The latest USDA report showed that Australia's cotton production estimate for the 2025/26 season was 4.5 million bales, a 2.3% decrease year - on - year [62]. 3.3 Domestic Market Supply - Demand Situation - **Substantial Increase in Production**: - **Increased Production and Low Imports**: In the 2025/26 season, China's cotton production estimate increased by 1.5 million bales year - on - year to 33.5 million bales, reaching a new high since 2013, and consumption decreased slightly by 500,000 bales to 38.5 million bales. Imports were expected to remain stable with a slight increase, and the ending stocks estimate increased by 320,000 bales year - on - year to 351.62 million bales, at a high level in the past five years [64]. - **Non - Concentrated Pima Cotton Costs and Faster Sales**: As of December 11, the national Pima cotton processing rate was 84%, 2.2 percentage points higher year - on - year, and the sales rate was 41.6%, 23.5 percentage points higher year - on - year [68]. - **Flat Commercial Stocks Year - on - Year**: As of the end of November, the domestic cotton commercial inventory was 4.68 million tons, a significant increase of 1.753 million tons month - on - month due to the listing of new cotton, and basically flat year - on - year, at the highest level in the same period in recent years [72]. - **First Decline and Then Rise in the Domestic - Foreign Price Difference and a Sharp Drop in Cotton Imports**: In October, China imported 90,000 tons of cotton, down 10,000 tons month - on - month and 20,000 tons year - on - year. From January to October, the cumulative cotton imports were 770,000 tons, a significant decrease of 1.6 million tons year - on - year, a decrease of 67.5% [76]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand and Poor Exports**: - **Recovery of Cotton Spinning PMI in the Fourth Quarter**: In November, the China Cotton Textile Industry Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) decreased slightly by 2 points month - on - month, and the decline was significantly narrower than in the same period of last year and the year before. The overall trend of cotton spinning PMI was similar to that of last year, not as good as in 2023, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious [86]. - **Poor Overall Spinning Mill Operation**: The domestic spinning mill operation load was basically at the lowest level in the same period in the past three years this year, showing a trend of high in the front and low in the back, and the peak - season characteristics were not obvious. As of this week, the spinning mill operation load index was 51, and the finished - product inventory was 27.6 days. The cloth mill operation rate reached a phased high in early April and then fluctuated and declined, and started to recover in August. As of this week, the cloth mill operation load index was 51.7, and the finished - product inventory was 31.2 days [87]. - **Moderate Recovery in Domestic Demand**: In October, the domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing were 147.08 billion yuan, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. From January to October, the cumulative retail sales were 1.20528 trillion yuan, a 3.5% year - on - year increase, and the growth rate was 2.4 percentage points higher than in the same period last year [95]. - **Slight Year - on - Year Decline in Textile and Clothing Exports, with Overall Declines in Exports to the US and ASEAN**: In November, domestic textile and clothing exports were $23.87 billion, a 5.1% year - on - year decrease, and the decline was 7 percentage points narrower than in the previous month. From January to November 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were $267.79 billion, a slight 1.9% year - on - year decrease. Exports to ASEAN and the US decreased significantly, while exports to the EU market remained stable [97]. 3.4 Future Outlook - **Possible Stable but Slightly Declining US Cotton Planting Area, Focus on Whether the Southern Hemisphere's Area Will Decrease**: Based on the soybean/cotton and corn/cotton price - ratio trends, the current price ratios are significantly higher than last year. Judging from the price ratios alone, the US cotton planting area in 2026 is likely to remain stable with a slight decline compared to 2025. The Brazilian cotton planting area is expected to be difficult to increase this season, and the Australian cotton planting area is expected to decline significantly in the 2025/26 season [2][105]. - **Uncertainty about the Cotton Planting Area under Policy Guidance**: In 2026, a new cotton target price will be formulated. The market speculates that the policy may lead to a decline in the cotton planting area in 2026, but it remains unknown whether the policy will be implemented as speculated and whether the implementation intensity can actually reduce the area [111].