据央视财经报道，最近，国内棉花期货价格明显走高。从去年11月初到现在，郑棉主力合约每吨涨了接近1100元，涨幅超过7%。今年1月初，价格一度冲到 每吨15000元，创下近一年半来的新高。期货涨，现货也跟着涨，全国棉花平均现货价每吨涨了1000元左右，涨幅接近7%。业内人士认为，本轮棉花期货上 涨，是供需、成本和市场预期等多重因素叠加共振的结果。同时，市场对下年度种植面积缩减的预期等其他因素，也增强了市场对后市的看多情绪。 企查查数据显示，截至1月28日，国内现存棉花种植相关企业41.02万家。注册量方面，2025年全年注册8.88万家棉花种植相关企业，截至目前，今年已注册 0.63万家。存量方面，近十年棉花种植相关企业存量规模持续增长。从经营时间来看，近七成棉花种植相关企业成立于3年内，其中成立年限在1-3年的相关 企业最多，占比44.81%。从注册资本分布来看，棉花种植相关企业多为轻量级企业，注册资本在100万元以内的相关企业最多，占比达63.59%。 1.现存棉花种植相关企业41.02万家 9. 17.7 企查查数据显示，截至1月28日，国内现存棉花种植相关企业41.02万家。近十年棉花种植相关企业存量规 ...

棉花政策、供需及价格解读 20260128 摘要 2025 年棉花补贴目标价格为 18,600 元/吨，2026 年或调整，影响农 民种植积极性。进口棉配额受限，国内市场依赖国产棉，支撑棉价。中 美关系缓和对宏观环境有积极影响。 2025 年全国棉花播种面积 4,700 万亩，新疆占 4,100-4,200 万亩。 2026 年新疆计划压缩播种面积至 3,600 万亩，减少约 500 万亩，或将 影响供应。 2025-2026 年度全国棉花产量预计 745-750 万吨，新疆 710 万吨左右。 市场看涨情绪较高，但需关注政策、播种面积及国际市场变化。 中国加入 WTO 时承诺每年发放 89.4 万吨 1%关税的固定配额，加上少 量随机配额，限制了低关税进口量，支撑国内棉价。2025 年进口量 106 万吨，同比减少。 新疆计划将棉花播种面积降至 3,600 万亩，减少约 500 万亩，旨在优化 农业结构，提高土地利用效率，长期来看增强国际竞争力。 2025 年中国棉花总产量预计为 740-750 万吨，新疆约 710 万吨，属 历史高位。新疆纺纱产能快速增加，本地消化比例提升，缓解供需压力。 2026 年全 ...

巴西《经济价值报》国际版1月22日报道，根据巴西棉花生产商协会（ABRAPA）发布的2025/26年 度展望报告，该年度巴西棉花种植面积预计为205.2万公顷，较2024/25年度下降5.5%；棉花产量预计达 382.9万吨，同比下降9.9%。与此同时，巴西国家供应公司（CONAB）在同期发布的第四次作物收成预 测报告中指出，2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计为202.6万公顷，较上年减少2.8%；产量预计为381.8万 吨，同比下降6.3%。ABRAPA执行董事马尔西奥·波托卡雷罗分析指出，全球棉花供应持续过剩、国际 原油价格走低以及国内持续处于高位的基准利率，共同加剧了棉农的生产成本压力与收益不确定性，从 而促使农户主动调减棉花种植规模。此外，ABRAPA数据显示，2026年巴西棉花出口量预计达320万 吨，同比增长13.0%。 （原标题：2025/26年度巴西棉花产量预计下降10%） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

Group 1 - The core issue for textile companies is the need to secure over 2000 tons of cotton raw materials through basis point pricing, as current costs are high due to a premium of 1000 CNY/ton over futures prices, compounded by poor sales of downstream products [1] - Since late November 2025, domestic cotton prices have risen significantly, with an increase of over 1500 CNY/ton by early January 2026, currently stabilizing around 1200 CNY/ton [1] - Stakeholders in the cotton industry are closely monitoring changes in cotton planting areas in Xinjiang, with some regions seeing an increase in land rental prices by approximately 300 CNY/mu [1] Group 2 - Initial market expectations indicated a reduction in Xinjiang's cotton planting area from 41 to 43 million mu in 2025 to around 36 million mu, with a decrease of 5 to 7 million mu, particularly in less suitable cotton regions [2] - Current market sentiment suggests that the reduction in planting area will be gradual over three years or more, rather than an abrupt cut, with ongoing policies aimed at ensuring cotton farmers' income and the long-term development of Xinjiang's cotton industry [2] - Factors contributing to the anticipated decrease in cotton planting include lower seed cotton purchase prices in 2025, leading to minimal profits for farmers, a trend towards adjusting crop structures to favor grain over cotton, and unclear policies regarding target prices for the upcoming planting season [2]

新疆铁路部门介绍，自2024年以来，新疆铁路部门已在南疆地区开行多趟乡村振兴班列。随着棉花快速 班列的开通，新疆棉花棉纱班列线路已增至3条。 （文章来源：新华财经） 针对棉花易受潮、需防破损的特性，铁路部门在运输中全部使用了车况良好的提速车辆，并实行"一库 一方案"策略，精心组织装车环节，搭建了棉花运输的绿色通道。 全国棉花交易市场总经理杨宝富表示，首趟棉花快速班列的开行是新疆棉花物流的重要进展。未来还计 划增加班列开行频次，拓展新疆至郑州、上海等方向，进一步降低产业链物流成本。 新华财经乌鲁木齐1月26日电（记者郝玉）"雪莲速运"班列26日从新疆阿克苏站发车，运载1395吨棉花 前往山东滨州市小营站。这标志着全国首趟棉花快速班列正式开行，为新疆棉花棉纱产业发展提供了新 的物流支撑。 中国铁路乌鲁木齐局集团有限公司95306货运物流服务中心营销一室相关负责人李子薇介绍，本次开行 的快速班列运行速度为120公里／小时，并采用"集零为整"的运输模式，这种模式改变了以往南疆地区 棉花零散运输的方式，将集货周期缩短了60%以上。新模式下，售棉企业发货更加省心便捷，下游纺织 企业也能据此更灵活地排产，快速响应市场变化， ...

北京时间1月26日，美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货价格震荡下行，开盘报63.84美分/磅，现报63.80美分/ 磅，跌幅0.06%，盘中最高触及64.06美分/磅，最低下探63.78美分/磅。 更新时间： 棉花期货行情回顾： 1月23日美国洲际交易所(ICE)棉花期货行情 品种 开盘价 最高价 最低价 收盘价 美棉花 63.90 64.15 63.57 63.97 0.03% 【棉花市场消息速递】 调研显示，截止至1月22日，进口棉主要港口库存周环比增加6.31%，总库存47.52万吨，其中，山东地 区青岛、济南港口及周边仓41.1万吨，同比减少7.35%。 据外媒报道，巴西棉花生产者协会(ABRAPA)在报告中称，巴西2025/26年度棉花种植面积预计较上年下 滑5.5%，至205.2万公顷。ABRAPA预估单产将下降4.7%，至每公顷1866千克。本年度收成预估为382.9 万吨皮棉，较上年度下滑9.9%。在对2025/26年度作物的第四次调查中，巴西全国供应公司(CONAB)预 估种植面积将下滑2.8%，至202.6万公顷，皮棉收成料下滑6.3%，至381.8万吨。 美国农业部：截至1月15日当周，美 ...

Summary of Cotton Market Conference Call Industry Overview - The global cotton supply and demand for the 2025-2026 season is expected to be balanced, with supply around 26 million tons and demand approximately 25.89 million tons, resulting in a stock-to-use ratio of 62.6%, consistent with the averages of the past three to five years [1][2] - China's cotton market in 2026 is projected to be in a tight balance, with production estimated at 7.5 million tons, imports at 1 million tons, and total demand around 8.6 million tons, indicating a slightly tight market [1][2] - The U.S. cotton market is expected to have a relatively loose supply-demand balance due to a lack of demand from China, with exports to China accounting for only 5% of total exports in 2026 [2] Key Points on Cotton Prices - Future cotton prices will be influenced by several factors, including planting area reductions in the U.S., Brazil, China, and Australia, particularly in the U.S. due to low cotton prices and high planting costs [1][3] - The recent increase in cotton prices since November 2023 is driven by low valuations, rapid sales progress, expectations of reduced production in Xinjiang, and strong consumer performance [4][5] - The monthly consumption in China from September to December 2023 has been stable at around 750,000 tons, which, if maintained, would result in an annual consumption of 9 million tons, the best performance since the pandemic recovery [1][5] Factors Affecting Future Price Trends - Key factors to monitor for future cotton price trends include: 1. Changes in planting area policies in Xinjiang, with expectations of a 10% reduction [8] 2. Sustained monthly consumption levels around 750,000 tons [8] 3. National policies regarding stockpiling and quotas [8] 4. The price gap between domestic and international markets affecting import flows [8] U.S. Cotton Market Insights - U.S. cotton prices are currently at a near 10-year low, with the main contract at 64 cents, reflecting a long-term balance in supply and demand [9] - Recent weeks have seen a significant improvement in U.S. cotton export volumes, with exports reaching 84,000 tons in the week ending January 8, 2024, and 90,000 tons in the week ending January 15, 2024, marking the highest levels for this period in a decade [13] Brazilian Cotton Production - Brazil is expected to reduce cotton production in 2026 due to unfavorable price ratios with other crops, leading some farmers to switch to corn or leave land fallow [12] - The increase in planting costs, primarily driven by fertilizer prices, is not expected to significantly impact planting area due to prior purchases [16] Price Projections - If major cotton-producing countries like the U.S., Brazil, Australia, and China reduce their production, and global consumption remains stable or slightly increases, the market could shift from a surplus of 110,000 tons in 2026 to a deficit of 400,000 tons in the following year, potentially driving prices up from 67 cents to 77 cents [18] - Increased purchases of U.S. cotton by China could further elevate prices, potentially reaching 85 cents or higher if trade relations improve [19]

【 纺服 】 美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、巴西25/26产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现 全球棉花供应端迎来巴西、美国两大出口国"双减"，美棉价格在成本倒挂与基差修复双重信号下，底部特征明确，看好棉价上行通道开启。 1. 供给侧收缩预期持续加强： 【巴西】（核心变量）：第一大棉花出口国结束5年产能扩张，CONAB 1/15日最新报告预计25/26年棉花产量同比降6.3%，自25年10月至今每月持续下调预 期。核心产区马托格罗索州减产更为激进，IMEA预计该州产量同比降幅达14.5%。 【美国】WASDE 最新1/12日报告将25/26棉花单产预期大幅下修7.8%，产量下调2.5%，库存消费比回落，库存压力显著减轻。 2. 减产背后硬逻辑： 测算得巴西棉农面临亏损（成本回报率-15.5%），而竞品二季玉米仍有8.4%回报，且玉米运营成本仅为棉花的1/3。 播种进度滞后： 巴西目前播种率仅8.1%（去年同期14.2%），若错失棉花最佳生长期将进一步加强减产预期。 3. 美棉价格筑底明确： 与成本显著倒挂： 现价（~65美分/磅）显著低于美国平均种植成本（~80美分/磅），并逼近政策抵押贷款利率（54.4美分/磅） ...

2. 减产背后硬逻辑： 测算得巴西棉农面临亏损（成本回报率-15.5%），而竞品二季玉米仍有8.4%回报，且玉米运营成本仅为棉花的1/3。 【 纺服 】 美棉价格历史深度复盘——美国、巴西25/26产量预期双降，美棉安全边际显现 全球棉花供应端迎来巴西、美国两大出口国"双减"，美棉价格在成本倒挂与基差修复双重信号下，底部特征明确，看好棉价上行通道开启。 1. 供给侧收缩预期持续加强： 【巴西】（核心变量）：第一大棉花出口国结束5年产能扩张，CONAB 1/15日最新报告预计25/26年棉花产量同比降6.3%，自25年10月至今每月持续下调预 期。核心产区马托格罗索州减产更为激进，IMEA预计该州产量同比降幅达14.5%。 【美国】WASDE 最新1/12日报告将25/26棉花单产预期大幅下修7.8%，产量下调2.5%，库存消费比回落，库存压力显著减轻。 播种进度滞后： 巴西目前播种率仅8.1%（去年同期14.2%），若错失棉花最佳生长期将进一步加强减产预期。 3. 美棉价格筑底明确： 与成本显著倒挂： 现价（~65美分/磅）显著低于美国平均种植成本（~80美分/磅），并逼近政策抵押贷款利率（54.4美分/磅） ...