新疆沙湾市某农业专业合作社理事长 何洪涛：现在每亩均产已经上500公斤了。按照现在已经采掉的产 量，跟去年对照，每亩地超过10公斤增产，用超宽膜的优势，最主要它是增温、保墒，再就是防草。 今年，沙湾市4.4米超宽膜棉花播种技术推广面积已经超过10万亩，同时通过引进土壤水分观测仪、物 候观测仪等物联网设备，提高了棉花田间管理的智能化水平。截至目前，沙湾市棉花采收已经完成 40%，采收面积60万亩，棉花采收预计在10月下旬完成。 转载请注明央视财经 （央视财经《天下财经》）连日来，新疆沙湾市150多万亩棉花进入采收季。今年，当地通过大面积推 广4.4米超宽膜棉花播种技术，助力棉农节省成本，增加产量。 在沙湾市大泉乡这处棉田里，一台台打包式采棉机正来回穿梭，棉花被快速采摘、压缩后，形成一个个 打包好的棉团，整齐地排列在田间。 大泉乡的这家农业专业合作社，今年种植了48000多亩棉花，得益于采用4.4米超宽膜棉花播种技术，今 年的亩产量高于去年同期。 编辑：王昕宇 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - This week, the price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, while the price of the US cotton December contract fell with a weekly decline of about 1.47% [5][11] - In the US cotton market, as of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions decreased by 751 hands, non - commercial short positions increased by 2020 hands, and net short positions increased by 2771 hands compared to the previous week [11] - In the domestic market, the commercial cotton inventory has dropped to a low level in the same period. The purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang has risen slightly, and the new cotton is gradually coming onto the market with a significant bumper harvest in the new year, increasing supply - side pressure. The orders of textile mills have not improved significantly, and the operating rate is still lower than the same period last year, and the traditional peak season of "Golden September and Silver October" has not appeared [5] - It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Future trading should focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Week - on - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The price of the main Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose this week with a weekly increase of about 0.83% [5] - **Market Outlook**: In the US, less rainfall in cotton - growing areas is conducive to harvesting, and new cotton supply will put pressure on prices. In China, the supply - side pressure is increasing due to new cotton listing and a bumper harvest, while the demand side has not improved significantly [5] - **Strategy Suggestion**: Wait and see in the short - term for the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract. Pay attention to post - holiday restocking and the listing rhythm [6] - **Future Trading Tips**: Focus on changes in foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [6] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fell this week with a weekly decline of about 1.47%. As of September 23, 2025, non - commercial long positions were 69367 hands (down 751 hands from the previous week), non - commercial short positions were 114787 hands (up 2020 hands), and net short positions were 45420 hands (up 2771 hands) [11] - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: From September 18th, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 76.05 cents per pound, down 1.1 cents per pound from last week [15] - **Futures Market**: The price of the Zhengzhou cotton 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.83%, and the price of the cotton yarn futures 2601 contract rose with a weekly increase of about 0.21%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 51037 hands, and that in cotton yarn futures was - 206 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 2942, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [20][27][33] - **Spot Market**: As of October 10, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 14757 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn spot C32S index price was 20460 yuan per ton [39][51] - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of October 9, the import cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 13965 yuan per ton (down 103 yuan per ton from last week), and the import cotton quota price was 12978 yuan per ton (down 168 yuan per ton). The import cotton yarn price index for different specifications is also provided [55] - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of October 9, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 774 yuan per ton (down 20 yuan per ton from last week), and that of imported cotton with quota was 1761 yuan per ton (up 45 yuan per ton) [58] 3.3 Industry Situation - **Supply - Side**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481700 tons (down 708100 tons from last month, a decrease of 32.34%), and the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892000 tons (down 6000 tons month - on - month). In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, down 80000 tons or 51.6% year - on - year), and the imported cotton yarn volume was 130000 tons (up 20000 tons month - on - month, up 20000 tons year - on - year) [61][67] - **Mid - end Industry (Demand - Side)**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days (down 1.1 days month - on - month), and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days (down 2.3 days month - on - month) [70] - **Terminal Consumption (Demand - Side)**: In August 2025, China's textile and clothing export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars (down 5% year - on - year, down 0.8% month - on - month). Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars (up 1.5% year - on - year, up 6.8% month - on - month), and clothing exports were 14.15 billion US dollars (down 10.1% year - on - year, down 6.7% month - on - month). As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic clothing were 670.83 billion yuan (up 11.95% month - on - month), and the cumulative year - on - year was 2.2% [75][79] 3.4 Options and Stock - Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information on the implied volatility of at - the - money cotton options this week is presented, but specific data is not described in text [80] - **Stock Market**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinong Development is shown, but specific data is not described in text [83]

Group 1: Agricultural Development - The introduction of new cotton varieties in Shache County has led to a significant increase in yield, with an average increase of over 50 kg per mu compared to previous varieties [7][8] - The coverage rate of leading cotton varieties in the county reached 240,000 mu, with intentions to plant 700,000 mu in the following year [7] - The county has also seen improvements in wheat and corn varieties, with the quality of first-grade wheat doubling compared to the previous year [8] Group 2: Policy and Financial Support - The implementation of a subsidy program for high-quality seeds has encouraged farmers to adopt better agricultural practices, with a 40% subsidy provided for seed costs [7] - A targeted assistance program has benefited over 60,000 households, with financial incentives for increasing corn yields and improving livestock breeding [9] - The county's agricultural development strategy includes integrating resources and enhancing the supply chain for various agricultural products [9] Group 3: Ecological Restoration and Industry Enhancement - Efforts to restore abandoned mines in the Karamay area have transformed the landscape, promoting ecological balance and agricultural productivity [12][13] - The introduction of advanced processing techniques for seabuckthorn has led to the production of popular consumer products, enhancing local economic development [11] - The focus on ecological restoration is aimed at creating sustainable agricultural practices that benefit local communities [14] Group 4: Water Supply and Infrastructure Development - The construction of small-scale water diversion projects in Jinghe County aims to provide consistent and quality water supply to rural areas, achieving a 99% rural tap water coverage rate by the end of 2024 [15][17] - Innovative methods have been employed to address challenges in water supply infrastructure, ensuring that clean water is accessible to rural populations [16] - The ongoing efforts in water supply projects reflect a commitment to improving living conditions and supporting agricultural activities in the region [17]

Core Viewpoint - The cotton industry in Xinjiang is experiencing significant growth and modernization, driven by advancements in mechanization and technology, leading to increased production and efficiency [1][2][3]. Group 1: Production and Yield - In 2025, China's total cotton production is expected to reach 7.22 million tons, an increase of 8.3% year-on-year, marking the highest level since 2013 [1]. - The average yield per acre in Xinjiang is reported to be over 400 kilograms, indicating a strong harvest season [1]. Group 2: Mechanization and Efficiency - Xinjiang plans to deploy over 7,500 cotton-picking machines this year, with a mechanization rate of over 97% and a machine-picking rate of over 90% [2]. - The use of large cotton-picking machines has drastically improved efficiency, with one machine capable of harvesting several hundred acres in a day [1][2]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The integration of drones for precision spraying and efficient operations has become standard in cotton farming, with some drone operators earning over 200,000 yuan annually [2]. - The development of genetically engineered cotton capable of producing astaxanthin represents a significant innovation, enhancing the economic value of cotton byproducts and increasing farmers' income [3]. Group 4: Industry Transformation - The cotton industry is transitioning from manual harvesting to mechanized operations, and from a single agricultural product to an extended industrial chain, driven by technological advancements [3].

Core Insights - The article discusses the cotton harvesting activities in Urumqi, Xinjiang, highlighting the significance of this region in cotton production [1][2][3] Group 1 - Xinjiang Urumqi is a key area for cotton harvesting, contributing significantly to the overall cotton supply in China [1][2] - The harvesting process is currently underway, indicating a busy agricultural season [3] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of cotton as a major agricultural product in Xinjiang, which plays a crucial role in the local economy [1][2] - The region's cotton production is vital for both domestic consumption and export [3]

Group 1 - The article highlights the unique charm and cultural significance of Xinjiang, particularly through the lens of miniature photography, which connects daily life with imagination [2][3] - Xinjiang is recognized as a major cotton-producing region in China, with a long history of cotton cultivation supported by favorable climatic conditions [6] - The cotton industry in Xinjiang has experienced rapid development due to modern agricultural technologies, achieving mechanization from planting to harvesting, contributing to local farmers' income and the region's high-quality development [7] Group 2 - Xinjiang is also known as the "hometown of lavender" in China, with suitable climatic conditions for lavender cultivation, which has become a new highlight for cultural tourism [11][12] - Lavender not only beautifies rural areas and enriches local residents but also plays a role in the rural revitalization of Xinjiang [12] - The production of Adras silk, recognized as a "living fossil of the Silk Road," involves traditional hand-dyeing and weaving techniques, which have been listed as a national intangible cultural heritage since 2008 [14] - Adras silk has gained new life by combining traditional craftsmanship with modern fashion design, showcasing the cultural heritage and development of the region [15]

Report Title and Period - The report is titled "Cotton Strategy Quarterly Report: Q4 2025" [2] Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Core Viewpoints - The price of cotton is expected to decline first and then rise. In the international market, the fundamentals provide some support, but the driving force is limited, and macro - level factors may cause market sentiment to fluctuate. In the domestic market, there is short - term supply pressure during the cotton concentration listing period, but there are also positive factors, and the price of Zhengzhou cotton futures is expected to show a trend of first decline and then rise in the fourth quarter [11][12] Summary by Directory Supply - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton production is expected to be 25.622 million tons, a 1.3% year - on - year decrease. US cotton production is expected to be 2.879 million tons, a decrease of 259,000 tons or 8.2% year - on - year. China's cotton production is expected to be 7.076 million tons, but the domestic general expectation is between 7.2 - 7.5 million tons [6] - Affected by drought, the proportion of US cotton - growing areas is still high, and the excellent - good rate of US cotton is gradually decreasing. High - level drought - affected areas are increasing rapidly, and attention should be paid to subsequent weather disturbances [43][46] Demand - Globally in the 2025/26 season, cotton consumption is expected to be 25.873 million tons, a 0.3% year - on - year decrease [7] - In August, the monthly retail value of US clothing and clothing accessories was $27.183 billion, a 1% month - on - month increase and an 8.3% year - on - year increase [7][64] - In August, the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textile products in China were 104.51 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase, and the cumulative retail sales from January to August were 940.04 billion yuan, a 2.9% year - on - year increase [7][70] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of yarn was 50.06%, a 0.18 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton yarn mills was 47.6%, a 0.1 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][72] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive load of staple - fiber cloth was 52.73%, a 2.31 - percentage - point week - on - week increase; the load of pure - cotton grey cloth was 50.42%, a 3.12 - percentage - point week - on - week increase [7][77] Import and Export - In August, China imported 70,000 tons of cotton, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 1.56 million tons year - on - year; imported 130,000 tons of cotton yarn, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons, and the cumulative imports from January to August decreased by 100,000 tons year - on - year [8] - In August, the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was $14.146 billion, a 10.08% year - on - year decrease; the cumulative export from January to August was $10.2761 billion, a 1.7% year - on - year decrease [8][84] - In August, the monthly export value of Chinese textile yarns, fabrics, and related products was $12.393 billion, a 1.43% year - on - year increase; the cumulative export from January to August was $94.513 billion, a 1.6% year - on - year increase [8][81] Inventory - As of mid - September, China's commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of about 700,000 tons; the industrial inventory was 862,100 tons, a year - on - year increase of about 45,000 tons [9] - As of the week of September 19, the comprehensive inventory of yarn was 26.32 days, a 0.38 - day week - on - week decrease; the comprehensive inventory of staple - fiber cloth was 29.28 days, a 0.94 - day week - on - week decrease [9][94] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton inventory of textile enterprises was 28.7 days, a 0.65 - day week - on - week decrease; the cotton yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 27.22 days, a 0.48 - day week - on - week decrease [9][96] - As of the week of September 19, the cotton yarn inventory of weaving factories was 7.78 days, a 0.26 - day week - on - week increase; the inventory of pure - cotton grey cloth was 31.18 days, a 1.4 - day week - on - week decrease [9][98] - The speed of cotton warehouse receipt liquidation has increased. As of September 25, 2025, the total number of cotton warehouse receipts and valid forecasts was 3,595, a decrease of 3,127 compared to August 28 [106] Option - The historical volatility of cotton is gradually decreasing, and the historical volatility cone is at a moderately low level [107]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton outlook: The current spot market is tight, but as new cotton is about to be listed, market tension will ease. Despite the USDA's report raising global consumption, macro - economic data shows no significant improvement. With global production increasing, supply - demand is balanced. New cotton will flood the market in October, bringing significant pressure and potential price fluctuations [69]. - Yarn outlook: The yarn market follows cotton prices. Due to intense industry competition and declining exports, future pressure is expected to be high [69]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 9 - month Market Review - In September, Zhengzhou cotton and yarn prices fluctuated weakly. The approaching new cotton listing and less - than - expected "Golden September and Silver October" conditions led to market pressure. The spot market was tight, but the market was trading on future expectations. Yarn followed cotton, with over - capacity compressing spinning profits, and more pressure expected with further expansion in Xinjiang [5][8]. 3.2 Supply - side Analysis - **Global Supply - Demand Balance**: In the 2025/26 season, global cotton production is expected to be 2562.2 million tons (up 23 million tons, 0.9% month - on - month), consumption 2587.2 million tons (up 18.4 million tons, 0.7% month - on - month), imports 951.6 million tons (up 2.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), exports 951.5 million tons (up 2.5 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), and ending stocks 1592.5 million tons (down 16.8 million tons, 1.0% month - on - month). In 2024/25, production and consumption are expected to increase, with ending stocks decreasing [14]. - **US Cotton**: In September 2025, the US cotton planting and harvest areas decreased, and the national abandonment rate increased month - on - month. The signing and export of US upland cotton were slow. As of September 18, 2025, the US had a cumulative net signed export of 94.7 million tons of 2025/26 cotton, reaching 36.22% of the expected annual export, with a shipment rate of 23.23% [15][20]. - **Indian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, India's cotton production is expected to be 531.1 million tons (up 1.7 million tons, 0.3% month - on - month), imports 69.7 million tons (up 3.4 million tons, 5.1% month - on - month). Consumption and exports are stable. Ending stocks increased by 5.1 million tons to 103 million tons (up 5.2% month - on - month) [22]. - **Brazilian Cotton**: In the 2024/25 season, Brazil's cotton planting area is expected to increase to 2.086 million hectares (about 31.29 million mu), a 7.3% year - on - year increase. The national yield per mu is expected to decrease to 125.8 kg/mu, a 0.9% year - on - year decrease. Total production is expected to reach 3.935 million tons, a 6.3% year - on - year increase. In 2024/25, Brazil exported 2.835 million tons of cotton, a 5.8% year - on - year increase, earning about $4.85 billion [25]. - **Domestic Cotton**: In the 2025/26 season, China's total supply increased by 41 million tons to 14.95 million tons. Total demand increased by 12 million tons to 8.42 million tons. Ending stocks increased by 29 million tons to 6.53 million tons. As of the end of August, commercial and industrial cotton inventories decreased significantly. In August, cotton and yarn imports showed different trends [27][31][36]. 3.3 Demand - side Analysis - **Domestic Demand**: In August 2025, China's social consumer goods retail sales reached 396.68 billion yuan, a 3.4% year - on - year increase. From January to August, the total was 3.23906 trillion yuan, a 4.6% year - on - year increase. Clothing, footwear, and textile retail sales in August were 104.5 billion yuan, a 3.1% year - on - year increase [43]. - **External Demand**: In July 2025, China's textile and clothing exports were $26.766 billion, a 0.06% year - on - year decrease. From January to July, exports were $170.741 billion, a 0.63% year - on - year increase [46]. - **Textile Industry Inventory**: In July, the textile industry's inventory was 402.01 billion yuan, a 0.12% month - on - month increase. Textile and clothing inventory was 189.91 billion yuan, a 1.03% month - on - month increase [48]. - **US Retail and Inventory**: In July 2025, US clothing and apparel retail sales were $26.908 billion, a 6.44% year - on - year increase. In June, retailer inventory was $58.349 billion, a 1.37% year - on - year increase, and the inventory - to - sales ratio was 2.20 [56]. - **Industrial Chain Operation**: The spot market for pure - cotton yarn had average trading, with prices following Zhengzhou cotton down. Spinning mills continued to reduce inventory slightly, and the operating rate was stable. The all - cotton grey fabric weaving factories mainly had small - batch orders, with limited growth, and the operating rate changed little [60].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased this week with a weekly decline of about 2.30%. It is recommended to take a short - term bearish approach towards the Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8][9]. - According to the USDA report, from September 12 - 18, 2025, the export signing volume of US upland cotton decreased while the shipment volume increased. Domestically, there is a strong expectation of cotton production increase in northern Xinjiang. The purchase price of seed cotton has declined, and downstream spinning mills are less enthusiastic about restocking. The orders of terminal clothing and manufacturing enterprises have not improved significantly, and the cotton yarn inventory is accumulating, so the cotton price is expected to remain weak [9]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Strategy Suggestion**: Adopt a short - term bearish strategy for Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract [8]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to the change of foreign cotton prices, demand, and inventory [9]. - **Market Review**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30% this week [9]. - **Market Outlook**: US cotton export signing volume decreased and shipment volume increased. In China, there is a strong production increase expectation in northern Xinjiang, the purchase price of seed cotton declined, downstream demand is weak, and the cotton price is expected to be weak [9]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract decreased by about 0.32% this week. As of September 16, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of US cotton futures decreased by 53 hands, the non - commercial short positions decreased by 8738 hands, and the net short positions decreased by 8685 hands [14]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of September 18, the net increase in US cotton export sales was 86,100 bales. The international cotton spot price was 78.15 cents per pound, down 0.95 cents per pound from last week [18]. - **Futures Market**: The price of Zhengzhou Cotton 2601 contract decreased by about 2.30%, and the price of cotton yarn futures 2511 contract decreased by about 0.63%. As of this week, the net positions of the top 20 in cotton futures were - 21,472 hands, and in cotton yarn futures were - 120 hands. The number of Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange cotton futures warehouse receipts was 3397, and that of cotton yarn futures was 0 [23][29][35]. - **Spot Market**: As of September 26, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,043 yuan per ton, and the spot price index of Chinese cotton yarn C32S was 20,615 yuan per ton [42][53]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of September 25, the imported cotton price with sliding - scale duty was 14,181 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the imported cotton quota price was 13,336 yuan per ton, down 191 yuan per ton from last week. The imported cotton yarn price index for different specifications was also provided [58]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of September 25, the estimated profit of imported cotton with sliding - scale duty was 881 yuan per ton, down 124 yuan per ton from last week; the estimated profit of imported cotton with quota was 1726 yuan per ton, down 57 yuan per ton from last week [61]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of the end of August, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1481,700 tons, a decrease of 708,100 tons or 32.34% from the previous month. The industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 892,000 tons, a decrease of 600 tons from the previous month [64]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In August 2025, China's cotton import volume was about 70,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 tons or 51.6%. The imported cotton yarn volume was 130,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 20,000 tons and a year - on - year increase of 20,000 tons [70]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side - Yarn and Grey Cloth Inventory**: As of the end of August, the yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 26.6 days, a decrease of 1.1 days from the previous month, and the grey cloth inventory was 33.9 days, a decrease of 2.3 days from the previous month [73]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export Volume**: In August 2025, China's textile and garment export volume was 26.54 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 5% and a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. Among them, textile exports were 12.39 billion US dollars, a year - on - year increase of 1.5% and a month - on - month increase of 6.8%, and garment exports were 14.15 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 10.1% and a month - on - month decrease of 6.7% [78]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Garment Retail Sales**: As of August 31, 2025, the cumulative retail sales of domestic garments were 670.83 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 11.95%, and the cumulative year - on - year increase was 2.2% [82]. 3.4 Options and Stock Market - Related Market - **Options Market**: Information about the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money options this week is presented, but no specific data is given [83]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd.**: A chart of the price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Nongkai Development Co., Ltd. is provided, but no specific analysis is given [87].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, the Zhengzhou cotton futures are expected to show a weak and volatile trend due to high cotton production in Xinjiang, low purchasing enthusiasm from ginneries, and general downstream demand [7][8][51]. - Globally, the cotton production and demand in the 2025/26 season have both increased, and the ending stocks have decreased slightly, presenting a relatively neutral outlook [13][51]. - For US cotton, the production is relatively stable, but the signing progress is poor, and the price is expected to fluctuate [16][51]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 First Part: Preface Summary 3.1.1 Market Review - In September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side saw a significant increase in cotton production compared to previous years, with a general purchase expectation of 6 - 6.4 yuan/kg, exerting hedging pressure on the market. The downstream demand was average, and the peak season was expected to remain at the current level. The fundamentals of US cotton changed little, and it was expected to fluctuate [6][12]. 3.1.2 Market Outlook - In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is expected to be average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [7]. 3.1.3 Strategy Recommendation - For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]. 3.2 Second Part: Fundamental Situation 3.2.1 Market Review - Similar to the preface summary, in September, the cotton futures prices were weak. The supply side had high production, and the demand side was average. The US cotton fundamentals changed little and were expected to fluctuate [12]. 3.2.2 International Market - In the 2025/26 season, the global cotton production increased by 230,000 tons to 25.622 million tons compared to the previous month, with China increasing by 220,000 tons and India by 110,000 tons. The demand also increased, and the ending stocks decreased slightly [13][14]. 3.2.3 United States - The new US cotton has a good quality rate, but the signing progress is at a low level in the same period over the years. The 2025/26 production is expected to be 2.87 million tons, an increase of 300,000 tons compared to the previous year. As of September 14, the cumulative signing volume was 901,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 16.61%, and the cumulative shipment volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year increase of 84.96%. China's cumulative signing volume was 104,700 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 84.96%, and the cumulative shipment was 0 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 100%. The drought situation has improved [16]. 3.2.4 Other Countries - In India, the cotton planting area in the 2025/26 season decreased by 312,000 hectares compared to the same period last year, a year - on - year decrease of 2.8%. The rainfall in the main cotton - producing areas was higher than normal. In Brazil, as of September 13, the cotton harvesting progress was 96.6%, and the processing progress was 36%. The new flower exports declined in the short term, and the quality indicators such as micronaire value and strength declined compared to last year [21][23]. 3.2.5 Domestic Market - Supply side: As of mid - September, the national commercial cotton inventory was 1.1759 million tons, a decrease of 30,580 tons from the previous month. In August 2025, 72,700 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 77,000 tons. From January to August 2025, the cumulative import was 585,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 72.7%. The domestic - foreign price difference was around 1,400 yuan/ton. - Demand side: The peak season demand was average, and the boost to the market was limited. As of mid - September, the cotton industrial inventory of cotton textile enterprises was 862,100 tons, a decrease of 30,200 tons from the previous month. The yarn inventory was 25.43 days, and the grey cloth inventory was 31.56 days. In August, domestic demand was average, and the retail sales of clothing, footwear, and textiles were 104.5 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.1%. The textile and clothing exports were average. From January to August 2025, the cumulative textile and clothing exports were 197.274 billion US dollars, a year - on - year decrease of 0.25%. - New crop: The national cotton planting area in 2025 was adjusted up by 2.71 million mu to 47.306 million mu, and the total output was adjusted up to 7.415 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The market focus has shifted to the new cotton purchase price, and the purchase price is around 6 - 6.3 yuan/kg [26][28][29]. 3.3 Third Part: Future Outlook and Strategy Recommendation - International: The global cotton production and demand have increased, but are still at a medium level over the years, and the ending stocks have decreased. The US cotton production is relatively stable, but the demand is not optimistic, and the price is expected to fluctuate [51]. - Domestic: In October, with new cotton coming onto the market, there will be selling hedging pressure on the market. The peak season demand is average, and the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to show a weak and volatile trend [51]. - Strategy: For single - side trading, the Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be weak and volatile. For arbitrage and options, it is recommended to wait and see [8]