中新社新疆尉犁9月10日电 临近棉花采收季，位于新疆尉犁县阿西木和田地区的3000亩棉田长势正盛， 饱满的棉花在秋日阳光下泛出丝丝银白光泽。 随着"超级棉田"产量与品质的升级，曾经提出质疑的棉农开始主动来到棉田寻求技术支持。艾海鹏不仅 要管理自己的3000亩棉田，还要经常到附近农户家中，解决种植难题、普及智慧农业知识。 "人们的思想观念一旦被打开，技术的普及与生态的形成便进入快车道。"艾海鹏说，目前，"超级棉 田"已推广至全疆超1200家农场，覆盖面积达70万亩，为农户降本增效成果显著。 新疆社会科学院研究员江钦辉向记者指出，"超级棉田"是新疆农业转型升级的一个缩影。放眼全疆，数 字赋能正在深刻改变传统农业，科技创新正为新疆农业发展提供强大动力。（记者李京泽 戎睿） 系列轻便操作的背后，是5年的攻坚克难与探索钻研。比如，2021年棉田因遭受风灾，可采收面积减 半；2023年棉田又遭遇罕见的五月飞雪被冻死大半，有1500亩需要重播。 面对这些突发状况，艾海鹏及时将前沿问题发回公司总部，获取精确解决方案，为智慧农业系统积累经 验。在"超级棉田"近五年的成长记录中，棉苗防风、病虫害提前预警、杂草"点防点治"等技术问 ...

新华社音视频部制作 记者：陈梦 郭燕 两个人，能管得了3000亩棉田吗？在新疆植棉大县尉犁，"超级棉田"项目给出了响亮答案。 ...

棉系周报：临近新花上市 棉价震荡为主 第一部分 国内外市场分析 第二部分 周度数据追踪 GALAXY FUTURES 目录 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 银河大宗农产品 研究员：刘倩楠 期货从业证号：F3013727 咨询从业证号：Z0014425 210/10/16 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 221/221/221 208/218/234 第一部分 国内外市场分析 内容摘要 2 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 221/221/221 208/218/234 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 ◼ 国际市场分析 ◼ 国内市场分析 ◼ 期权交易策略 ◼ 期货交易策略 国际市场分析 3 GALAXY FUTURES 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.09.05」 棉花（纱）市场周报 研究员：王翠冰 期货从业资格号F03139616 期货投资咨询从业证Z0021556 关 注 微信客 服 号 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、周度要点小结 2、期现市场 3、产业情况 4、期权及股市关联市场 「 周度要点小结」 行情回顾：本周郑棉主力2601合约价格下跌，周度跌幅约1.69%。 行情展望：国际方面，美国农业部(USDA)驻巴西专员发布的报告显示，预计巴西 2025/26年度棉花产量预估上修至1810万包（约394万吨），较最初预测的1780万包 （约387万吨）提高1.6%，较2024/25年度创记录的1700万包（约370万吨）增长 6.5%，上调原因主要是种植面积扩大。国内方面，棉花商业库存处于近年来相对低 位水平，且进口同比大幅减少，新棉上市前供应趋于偏紧状态。需求端，市场对 "金九银十"需求旺季有一定预期。截至目前主流纺企开机负荷在六成附近，环比 上升明显，刷新逾一个月最高水平，旺季订单在缓慢回暖过程。总体来说，新棉大 量上市前，国内旧作供应偏紧，加上需求边际回暖，预计期价延续高位震荡运行。 策略建议，操作上，郑棉2601合约 ...

塔吉克斯坦霍瓦尔通讯社9月4日杜尚别报道，据塔吉克斯坦农业部数据，截至2025年9月1日，塔收获 3.5万吨棉花，其中约3.3万吨产自哈特隆州的农场。 ...

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|农业策略⽇报 2025-9-3 九月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 油脂：短期或继续震荡调整，等待进一步信息指引 蛋白粕：关注下沿支撑，盘面料延续区间震荡 玉米/淀粉：贸易商提前布局囤货，情绪不易过度悲观 生猪：9月出栏继续增加，猪价压力持续 橡胶：胶价上行驱动有限，但下方支撑偏强 合成橡胶：盘面维持区间震荡 纸浆：现货成交清淡，纸浆期货核心驱动难定 棉花：棉价震荡整理，关注收购价 白糖：供应压力边际增大，糖价偏弱运行 原木：弱现实与旺季预期博弈 【异动品种】 ⽣猪观点：9⽉出栏继续增加，猪价压⼒持续 逻辑：（1）供应：短期，9月计划出栏量预计保持环增趋势，猪源供应整 体充裕。中期，2025年上半年全国能繁母猪产能尚在高位波动，并且1月~ 7月新生仔猪数量持续环比增加，按照仔猪→商品猪6个月出栏时间推算， 预计下半年生猪出栏呈增量趋势，周期仍受供应压制。长期，7月"反内 卷"政策引导生猪产业"降重+减产"，农业部、发改委、中畜协开会落 实政策精神，8月农业部继续表示"持续推进生猪产能综合调控"。但是 当前生猪养殖尚有利润，主动减产存在阻力，7月钢联、涌 ...

Core Insights - The latest USDA weekly crop progress report indicates that as of the week ending August 31, the good-to-excellent rating for U.S. cotton is at 51%, down from 54% the previous week and up from 44% the same time last year [1] - As of the same week, the U.S. cotton blooming rate is at 28%, an increase from 20% the previous week but lower than the 35% recorded last year and the five-year average of 30% [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the domestic market, short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend. In the international market, short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend. The report suggests short - term trading [48][49] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Cotton Market Analysis 3.1.1 Futures Price Trends - Zhengzhou cotton futures rebounded this week with a weekly increase of 1.5%. ICE cotton futures declined and then rebounded, with a weekly decrease of 1.01% [10] 3.1.2 Spot Prices - This week, the cotton price index rose. The 3128 index increased by 75 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the 2129 index increased by 85 yuan/ton [14] 3.1.3 Cotton Import Situation - In July, 50,000 tons of cotton were imported, a year - on - year decrease of 150,000 tons [19] 3.1.4 Cotton Inventory Situation - In the first half of August, the commercial cotton inventory was 1.8202 million tons, a decrease of 369,600 tons compared with the second half of July [23] 3.1.5 Downstream Inventory Situation - In July, the yarn inventory was 27.67 days, a year - on - year decrease of 0.65 days. The grey cloth inventory was 36.14 days, a year - on - year increase of 2.82 days [27] 3.1.6 Yarn Prices - This week, yarn prices rose. The price of OEC10S yarn increased by 20 yuan/ton compared with last week, the price of C32S yarn increased by 60 yuan/ton, and the price of JC40S yarn increased by 40 yuan/ton [32] 3.1.7 Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange Warehouse Receipts and Valid Forecasts - This week, the total number of Zhengzhou cotton warehouse receipts and forecasts decreased by 539. The number of warehouse receipts was 6,720, and the valid forecasts were 2, with a total of 6,722 [38] 3.1.8 US Cotton Export Situation - As of August 21, the net sales of US upland cotton exports in the current year increased by 179,300 bales, and the net sales of exports in the next year were 0 bales [40] 3.1.9 US Weather Situation - In the US, the total area in drought (D1 - D4) is 27.7%, with D0 - Abnormally Dry at 17.3%, D1 - Moderate Drought at 10.9%, D2 - Severe Drought at 10.8%, D3 - Extreme Drought at 5.5%, and D4 - Exceptional Drought at 0.5% [47] 3.2后市展望 3.2.1 Domestic Market - Xinjiang cotton has basically entered the yield - determining stage. The weather in the main producing areas is ideal, and cotton is growing well. The market expects a slight increase in cotton yield per mu, and the total cotton output in Xinjiang in the 2025/26 season may reach 7 million tons. The expected purchase price of seed cotton is 6 - 6.5 yuan/kg. Textile orders in the peak season are starting, and the operating rate has increased slightly. The 2025 cotton import sliding - duty processing trade quota has little impact on the market. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a strong and volatile trend [48] 3.2.2 International Market - US cotton declined and then rebounded. The weak US dollar due to the market's expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut has boosted the price of US cotton. There is some drought in the southern US, but the impact is limited. The good export situation and high excellent - rate of US cotton suggest that short - term US cotton may maintain a volatile trend [48]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton (2601) closed higher with a weekly increase of about 1.5%, and the cotton yarn futures contract (2511) rose 0.4% [6][18]. - Internationally, the price of ICE cotton futures fluctuates repeatedly due to the influence of the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, supply is tight before the new cotton is listed, and the spot price is firm. China's total quota for the sliding - duty tariff processing trade of cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons [6]. - There are certain expectations for the upcoming "Golden September and Silver October" peak demand season. In 2025, China's overall cotton planting area has increased, and attention should be paid to the impact of weather on the growth of new crops [6]. - Before the new cotton is listed, the supply of old cotton is tight, and with the expectation of improved demand, the center of the main cotton contract has moved up slightly, but the medium - term space may be restricted by the increase in new cotton production. It is recommended to hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Week - to - Week Key Points Summary - **Market Analysis**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: Internationally, ICE cotton futures prices fluctuate due to the US dollar. Domestically, cotton is de - stocking, supply is tight before new cotton is listed, and spot prices are firm. There are expectations for the "Golden September and Silver October" season. China's 2025 cotton planting area has increased, and weather impact on new crops should be watched. The main cotton contract may rise slightly but be restricted by new cotton production [6]. - **Operation Suggestion**: Hold long positions cautiously and set stop - losses [6]. - **Future Trading Tips**: Pay attention to changes in foreign cotton prices, macro factors, trade policies, and weather factors [7]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market - **US Cotton Market**: The price of the US cotton December contract fluctuated this week with a weekly increase of about 0.01%. As of August 19, 2025, the non - commercial long positions of ICE No. 2 cotton decreased by 0.24% month - on - month, non - commercial short positions decreased by 3.28% month - on - month, and the net position increased by 8.67% month - on - month [10]. - **Foreign Cotton Spot Market**: As of the week ending August 21, 2025, the net increase in US cotton export sales for the current market year was 179,300 bales, including a net increase of 4,400 tons in exports to the Chinese mainland. As of August 27, 2025, the Cotlook:A index was 78.2 cents per pound, down 0.89% month - on - month [13]. - **Futures Market**: Zhengzhou cotton's main 2601 contract rose 1.5% this week, and cotton yarn futures 2511 contract rose 0.4%. As of this week, the net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 69,475, and in cotton yarn futures was - 869. The number of cotton futures warehouse receipts was 6,514, and cotton yarn futures warehouse receipts were 62 [18][23][30]. - **Spot Market**: As of August 29, 2025, the spot price index of cotton 3128B was 15,328 yuan per ton, and the Chinese cotton yarn C32S spot index price was 20,760 yuan per ton. As of August 28, 2025, the CY index: OEC10s (air - jet yarn) was 14,820 yuan per ton [38][50]. - **Imported Cotton (Yarn) Cost**: As of August 27, 2025, the import cotton price index (FC Index):M:1% quota port pick - up price was 13,385 yuan per ton, down 0.79% month - on - month; the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price was 14,220 yuan per ton, down 0.43% month - on - month. The import cotton yarn price index (FCY Index) for different varieties had no month - on - month change [55]. - **Imported Cotton Price Cost - Profit**: As of August 27, 2025, the cost - profit of imported cotton at the sliding - duty tariff port pick - up price (M) was 1,122 yuan per ton, and at the 1% quota port pick - up price was 1,957 yuan per ton [56]. 3.3 Industry Chain Situation - **Supply Side - Commercial Cotton Inventory**: As of July 31, 2025, the national commercial cotton inventory was 2.1898 million tons, down 22.62% month - on - month, and the industrial cotton inventory was 898,400 tons, up 1.85% month - on - month [61]. - **Supply Side - Imported Cotton Volume**: In July 2025, China's cotton import volume was 50,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 73.2%. From January to July 2025, the cumulative cotton import volume was 520,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 74.2%. In July 2025, China's cotton yarn import volume was 110,000 tons, and from January to June 2025, the cumulative cotton yarn import volume was 780,000 tons [65]. - **Mid - end Industry - Demand Side**: As of July 31, 2025, the yarn inventory days were 27.67 days, down 2.43% month - on - month, and the grey fabric inventory days were 36.14 days, down 2.95% month - on - month [69]. - **Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Textile and Garment Export**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.1604009 billion US dollars, down 3.69% month - on - month; the monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5161759 billion US dollars, down 0.69% month - on - month [73]. - **Downstream Terminal Consumption - Demand Side - Domestic Clothing Retail**: As of July 31, 2025, the monthly retail value of clothing was 66.85 billion yuan, down 25.57% month - on - month; the year - on - year monthly retail value of clothing was 0.2%, down 88.24% month - on - month [75]. 3.4 Option and Stock Market - Related Market - **Option Market**: This week, the implied volatility of at - the - money options for cotton was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [77]. - **Stock Market - Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd.**: The price - earnings ratio trend of Xinjiang Xinnong Development Co., Ltd. was analyzed, but specific data was not provided in the summary part [80].

Core Viewpoint - The cotton futures prices on the Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) have shown an upward trend, with recent trading indicating a slight increase in price, reflecting market dynamics and external factors affecting cotton production [1][2]. Price Movement - On August 28, ICE cotton futures opened at 66.68 cents per pound and reached a current price of 66.74 cents per pound, marking a 0.14% increase. The intraday high was 66.80 cents per pound, while the low was 66.65 cents per pound [1]. - On August 27, the cotton futures closed at 66.72 cents per pound, down by 0.04% from the previous day, with an opening price of 66.66 cents, a high of 66.88 cents, and a low of 66.55 cents [2]. Market Conditions - The Brazilian CEPEA/ESALQ cotton price index reported at 71.84 cents per pound on August 27, reflecting a 0.10% increase from the previous day but a 2.34% decrease compared to the same period last month [2]. - The Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange reported a decrease in cotton futures warehouse receipts, with a total of 6,861 contracts, down by 121 contracts from the previous trading day [2]. Weather Impact - Recent heavy rainfall in the semi-arid southwestern region has posed a significant threat to cotton crops, with reports indicating that over 8,000 acres of farmland in the Fazilka region have been flooded, adversely affecting the growth stage of cotton plants and diminishing harvest prospects [2].