1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Polyolefins - The market is in a strong cost - support, supply - contraction expectation, and weak real - demand game. Prices are expected to maintain high - level wide - range fluctuations. If the geopolitical tension persists, the price is likely to rise, and chemical products may increase more strongly than crude oil. The 05 contract is expected to perform well [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - For caustic soda, the short - term market rise is due to the optimistic expectation from the geopolitical conflict. The supply is decreasing, and there is a possibility of price increase, but beware of the market decline when the situation eases. For PVC, the cost is rising, the supply is slightly increasing, the demand is improving, and the price has an upward trend in the short term, but also beware of cost collapse [2]. Urea - The urea spot price is relatively stable near the guidance price, and the futures price fluctuates greatly affected by energy - chemical commodities. The fundamentals change little, and the supply pressure remains. The price will follow the trend of crude - chemical products and may be strong in the short term [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - The Middle - East situation affects the supply of PX, leading to a decline in PTA load. MEG has a high probability of de - stocking in March - April. The prices of polyester products are affected by oil prices and fluctuate greatly. Strategies such as long positions plus put options can be considered [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - Soda ash has a situation of strong supply and weak demand, and the market is expected to fluctuate, with a reference range of 1150 - 1300. Glass has a good de - stocking situation, and the price center has slightly increased. It is recommended to wait and see and consider low - buying after the macro is stable [5]. Crude Oil - In the short term, the oil price maintains the pattern of "policy control + geopolitical support". If the Strait of Hormuz blockade continues for 4 weeks, the supply shortage may intensify, and the oil price may still have strong upward momentum. It is recommended to go long on dips [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation is expected to improve. The price follows the oil price. For styrene, the supply is high, and the profit is under pressure. Both can consider long positions plus put options strategies [9]. Methanol - The current price is mainly dominated by supply interruption expectations and risk sentiment. The follow - up trend depends on the actual progress of the geopolitical conflict. The 05 - end inventory is expected to be moderately low [10]. LPG - No overall view on LPG is clearly stated in the report. Natural Rubber - The new rubber supply is gradually released, and the raw material price is strong. The demand has uncertainties. The price is expected to fluctuate in the range of 16500 - 17500 [12]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyolefins - **Price Changes**: L2605, L2609, PP2605, and PP2609 prices all increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with L2605 up 2.19%, L2609 up 2.66%, PP2605 up 3.61%, and PP2609 up 4.09% [1]. - **Inventory and开工率**: PE device operating rate decreased by 5.20% to 82.39%, while the downstream weighted operating rate increased by 18.20% to 33.83%. PE enterprise inventory increased by 7.31% to 57.54 million tons, and social inventory decreased by 1.56% to 66.29 million tons. PP device operating rate decreased by 5.95% to 69.98%, and the powder - material operating rate increased by 14.53% to 31.35 [1]. PVC and Caustic Soda - **Price Changes**: The prices of Shandong 50% liquid caustic soda, East - China PVC (both calcium - carbide and ethylene methods), and SH2605, SH2609, V2605, V2609 futures all increased on March 13 compared to March 12 [2]. - **Supply and Demand**: The caustic soda industry operating rate decreased by 1.3% to 85.3%, and the PVC total operating rate increased by 0.3% to 81.4%. The downstream demand for caustic soda and PVC is improving [2]. Urea - **Price Changes**: The urea futures prices increased, and the spot price was relatively stable. The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12 [3]. - **Supply and Demand**: The domestic urea daily output decreased by 1.36% to 21.82 million tons, and the operating rate decreased by 1.36% to 92.68% [3]. PX, PTA, MEG, etc. - **Price Changes**: WTI crude oil (April) increased by 3.1% to 98.71, CFR Japan naphtha increased by 8.5% to 1060, and CFR China PX decreased by 2.4% to 1274 on March 13 compared to March 12 [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The Asian PX operating rate decreased by 7.6% to 76.9%, and the PTA operating rate decreased by 1.1% to 80.1%. The MEG inventory decreased, and the de - stocking expectation in March - April is strong [4]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: The glass 2605 and 2609 futures prices increased on March 13 compared to March 12, with 2605 up 1.98% and 2609 up 1.63%. The soda ash 2605 and 2609 futures prices also increased, with 2605 up 1.67% and 2609 up 0.98% [5]. - **Supply and Demand**: The soda ash operating rate increased by 0.27% to 87.00%, and the float - glass daily melting volume decreased by 1.08% to 14.69 million tons [5]. Crude Oil - **Price Changes**: Brent crude oil increased by 2.67% to 103.14, WTI crude oil increased by 3.11% to 98.71, and SC crude oil increased by 5.58% to 754.50 on March 13 compared to March 12 [8]. - **Market Situation**: The shipping volume through the Strait of Hormuz has dropped to a very low level. The oil price is affected by geopolitics and policy control [8]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Price Changes**: The price of Brent crude oil (May) increased by 2.7% to 103.14, and the price of CFR China pure benzene increased by 1.1% to 1080 on March 13 compared to March 12. The price of styrene in East - China spot increased by 0.6% to 10040 [9]. - **Supply and Demand**: The supply of pure benzene is expected to decrease, and the supply - demand situation of styrene is expected to slightly de - stock in March [9]. Methanol - **Price Changes**: The MA2605 closed at 2805 on March 13, up 2.90% from March 12. The MA2609 closed at 2672, up 3.97% [10]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The methanol enterprise inventory decreased by 5.13% to 52.321 million tons, and the port inventory decreased by 9.05% to 131.3 million tons. The upstream domestic enterprise operating rate increased slightly by 0.07% to 76.27 [10]. LPG - **Price Changes**: The main PG2604 increased by 1.65% to 5734 on March 13 compared to March 12, and the PG2605 increased by 1.60% to 5602 [11]. - **Inventory and开工率**: The LPG refinery storage capacity ratio increased by 10.50% to 24.9, and the port inventory decreased by 1.52% to 227 million tons. The upstream main - refinery operating rate decreased by 1.76% to 81.35 [11]. Natural Rubber - **Price Changes**: The price of Yunnan Guofu whole - latex rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai decreased by 2.59% to 16900 on March 13 compared to March 12 [12]. - **Supply and Demand**: The new rubber supply in Yunnan and Hainan is gradually released, and the overseas production area is in the off - season. The demand of tire enterprises has uncertainties [12].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Views - The PVC market is expected to maintain a bullish trend until the raw material shortage issue is resolved. The high - inventory pattern may gradually reverse due to the reduction of ethylene - based PVC production. The caustic soda market is expected to oscillate at a high level, mainly driven by strong expectations, and is waiting for further fundamental guidance [4][8]. 3. Summary by Directory PVC 3.1 Market Review - In the 11th week, PVC continued to be strong, with VIX hitting a record high. It opened higher at 5400 at the beginning of the week, closed at the daily limit of 5466 on Monday due to geopolitical conflicts, dropped to a weekly low of 4986 on Tuesday due to G7's oil reserve release and Trump's speech, and then rebounded strongly from Wednesday to Friday, reaching a weekly high of 5867 on Thursday and finally closing at 5724, an 8% increase from last Friday's close. The weekly fluctuation range was 4986 - 5867, with an amplitude of 881 [3][13]. - As of Thursday, the main contract's open interest was 880,000 lots, showing a significant reduction compared to the previous period [16]. - As of Thursday, the V05 basis was 30 yuan/ton, and the market shifted to a contango structure, with the basis reaching a maximum of 234 yuan/ton on Monday [19]. - As of Thursday, the V5 - 9 spread was - 13 yuan/ton, and the spread significantly showed a positive arbitrage market [22]. 3.2 Industry Chain Prices - The cost side of oil and coal was strong. As of Thursday, Wuhai calcium carbide was 2500 yuan/ton (weekly increase of 400, up 19%); Northeast Asian ethylene CFR was 1000 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 150, up 18%); Far - East VCM was 800 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 290, up 57%). In February 2026, the industrial and commercial electricity price in western Inner Mongolia was 0.43 yuan/ton, ending two consecutive months of increase; the industrial and commercial electricity price in Shandong was 0.58 yuan/kWh, showing a continuous decline for 4 months [25]. 3.3 Profits - As of Thursday, the integrated profit of chlor - alkali in the northwest was 1527 yuan/ton, rising rapidly. The integrated profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 302 yuan/ton, reaching a high level in the same period [28]. 3.4 Supply - This week, the PVC output was 500,000 tons, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.4%. The operating rate has remained above 80% for 5 consecutive weeks. However, the operating rates of calcium carbide - based and ethylene - based production showed differentiation, with the weekly operating rate of ethylene - based production decreasing by 4.6 percentage points to 78%. Next week, Qilu Petrochemical and Yantai Wanhua's total 760,000 - ton plants are scheduled for maintenance [30]. - This week, the PVC output was 500,000 tons, reaching a new high this year, with a cumulative year - on - year increase of 4.2%. In March, only Jiyuan Fangsheng, Qilu Petrochemical, and Guangzhou Dongcao's total 640,000 - ton plants are planned for maintenance, and the supply is expected to continue under pressure [33]. 3.5 Domestic Demand - In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of newly - started, under - construction, completed, and sold areas in the real estate industry were - 20.4%, - 10.0%, - 18.1%, and - 8.7% respectively. The decline in sales area has widened for 8 consecutive months. The real - estate transaction area is at a low level in the same period. In 2025, the newly - started area was 590 million square meters, the under - construction area was 6.6 billion square meters, the completed area was 600 million square meters, and the sold area was 880 million square meters [38]. - In December 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of the price indices of newly - built commercial residential buildings and second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities were - 3.05% and 6.07% respectively. The month - on - month growth rate of newly - built commercial residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.37%, showing a continuous decline for 31 months since June 2023. The month - on - month growth rate of the price index of second - hand residential buildings in 70 large and medium - sized cities was - 0.70%, showing a continuous decline for 32 months since May 2023. All 70 cities have seen price declines for 4 consecutive months [41]. 3.6 External Demand - The current overseas quotes continued to rise, with the FOB quote for calcium carbide - based PVC at 880 US dollars/ton (weekly increase of 245, up 39%) [44]. - In 2025, the PVC export volume was 3.82 million tons (an increase of 1.21 million tons year - on - year, a cumulative year - on - year increase of 46%). This week, the export orders of PVC production enterprises were 24,200 tons [49]. 3.7 Inventory - As of Thursday, the upstream and mid - stream inventory of PVC was 1.78 million tons (weekly decrease of 78,000 tons) [52]. - As of Thursday, the inventory of PVC enterprises was 380,000 tons [55]. - As of Thursday, the large - sample social inventory of PVC was 1.41 million tons [58]. Caustic Soda 3.1 Market Review - In the 11th week, caustic soda rebounded strongly. It opened higher at 2497 at the beginning of the week, touched the daily limit of 2551 on Monday morning but finally closed at 2442 due to the low correlation between the cost side and oil prices. It dropped to a weekly low of 2214 on Tuesday due to G7's oil reserve release and Trump's speech, and then rebounded strongly from Wednesday to Friday, reaching a weekly high of 2645 on Friday and finally closing at 2604. The weekly fluctuation range was 2214 - 2645, with an amplitude of 431 points [61]. 3.2 Capital and Basis - As of Thursday, the weighted open interest of caustic soda was 220,000 lots [64]. - As of Thursday, the 05 basis of caustic soda was - 442 yuan/ton, and the spot market was weak, with the basis remaining weak [67]. 3.3 Profits - As of Thursday, the gross profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong was 233 yuan/ton. The price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton [70]. 3.4 Supply - This week, the caustic soda output was 844,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 85%. Maintenance will continue next week, and the output is expected to slightly decrease to about 830,000 tons [72]. 3.5 External Demand - In 2025, the caustic soda export volume was 4.1 million tons (a cumulative year - on - year increase of 34%). Overseas chlor - alkali plants are reducing their loads, and there is an expectation of an increase in short - term export orders [75]. 3.6 Inventory - The current caustic soda inventory in the factory was 530,000 tons [78].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The focus is on the petrochemical, chemical, and agricultural sectors, driven by geopolitical tensions affecting oil prices, which are expected to rise to $90-100 per barrel, with potential to exceed $110, leading to new highs in upstream sectors [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments Petrochemical Sector - **Upstream Benefits**: Companies in the upstream sector are expected to benefit from rising oil prices. If oil prices exceed $110, upstream companies may reach new highs [2]. - **Midstream Challenges**: Midstream companies face profit pressures due to cost transmission issues, necessitating a focus on companies with non-oil routes and strong inventory management [1][2]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - Companies sourcing raw materials outside the Middle East, such as Hengyi Petrochemical, are less affected by geopolitical tensions [2]. - Firms using non-oil technologies, like Baofeng Energy and Satellite Chemical, are also recommended due to lower cost increases compared to crude oil [2][3]. - Companies with strong inventory management capabilities, such as Hengli Petrochemical and Donghua Energy, are positioned to benefit from price fluctuations [3]. Chemical Sector - **Coal Chemical and Chlor-alkali**: Companies like Hualu Hengsheng and Luxi Chemical are expected to benefit from rising prices of coal chemical products, with PVC prices increasing by nearly 2000 RMB/ton [4]. - **Sulfur Resources and Fertilizers**: Tight sulfur supply due to refining constraints and rising demand for lithium batteries may lead to a prolonged super cycle. Recommended companies include YK International and Salt Lake Co. [6]. - **Polyurethane and Other Segments**: Companies like Wanhua Chemical are expected to see profit increases due to strong pricing power in MDI/TDI products [6][7]. Agricultural Sector - **Impact of Oil Prices on Agriculture**: Rising oil prices are expected to increase costs for fertilizers, which constitute about 20% of the average cost of major crops. This will likely lead to higher agricultural product prices [9]. - **Investment Opportunities**: - **Seed Industry**: Companies like Longping High-Tech and Dabeinong are highlighted as beneficiaries of rising corn prices, which will boost seed purchasing [10]. - **Planting Industry**: Companies involved in wheat planting, such as Suqian Agricultural Development, are expected to benefit from rising grain prices [11]. - **Livestock Industry**: The rising cost of feed is accelerating capacity clearance in the pig farming sector, benefiting leading companies like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [11]. Additional Important Points - The geopolitical situation, particularly the Iran-U.S. tensions, is expected to prolong high oil prices, impacting the chemical industry by disrupting normal supply-demand rhythms [3][7]. - The chemical industry is likely to experience a prolonged cycle of high prices, with investment opportunities categorized into those directly benefiting from high oil prices and those driven by their own supply-demand dynamics [7][8]. - The overall trend in the chemical industry remains positive despite short-term fluctuations, with a focus on supply changes and capacity cycles [8].

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the **chlor-alkali industry** in the context of the **Middle East geopolitical situation** affecting ethylene supply and PVC production costs [1][2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Ethylene Supply Tightness**: The geopolitical situation has led to a significant tightening of ethylene supply, causing the cost of ethylene-based PVC to increase by approximately **1,500 CNY/ton**, with price differentials between ethylene and calcium carbide methods widening to **600-1,000 CNY/ton**, reaching a new high since 2021 [1][2]. - **Production Cuts**: Ethylene-based PVC production has entered a phase of substantial reduction, with the operating rate dropping **6.24 percentage points** to **71%**, and daily output decreasing by **15.04%** compared to March 5 [1][6]. - **Export Outlook**: Despite the cancellation of export tax rebates in April, the geopolitical situation has shifted export expectations from pessimistic to optimistic, with sufficient orders and export prices covering the costs of the tax cancellation [1][10]. - **Inventory Dynamics**: Overall inventory levels have begun to decrease, particularly in upstream factories, indicating a potential acceleration in inventory reduction if production cuts continue and export opportunities arise [1][8]. - **Price Forecasts**: If the geopolitical situation persists for **1-2 weeks**, PVC futures could rise to **6,500 CNY/ton**; if it lasts **1-2 months**, prices may reach **7,000-8,000 CNY/ton** due to supply-demand imbalances [1][12]. - **Limited Impact on Caustic Soda**: The reduction in ethylene-based PVC production has a limited direct impact on the caustic soda market, with overall industry operating rates expected to increase, and actual new capacity in 2026 projected at around **2 million tons** [1][13]. Additional Important Insights - **Historical Price Differentials**: Historically, the price differential between ethylene-based and calcium carbide-based PVC has fluctuated between **0 to 240 CNY/ton**, with an average of **102 CNY/ton**. Recent geopolitical events have caused this differential to spike significantly [2]. - **Global PVC Supply Structure**: Northeast Asia accounts for **57%** of global PVC production capacity, with China alone representing **49%**. Other regions like North America and Europe have smaller shares, with North America at **16%** and Europe at **11%** [4][5]. - **Market Dynamics**: The PVC market is heavily influenced by supply-demand fundamentals, with recent years seeing a persistent oversupply situation leading to price declines despite rising costs [2][3]. - **Production Capacity Constraints**: The calcium carbide method's production capacity is limited to about **85%**, primarily due to older facilities and inactive capacities that are not being phased out [11]. - **Geopolitical Impact Comparison**: The current Middle East conflict's impact on the chlor-alkali market is less severe than the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict, which significantly affected European production costs and demand dynamics [13]. This summary encapsulates the critical points discussed in the conference call, providing a comprehensive overview of the chlor-alkali industry's current state and future outlook amidst geopolitical tensions.

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2) Core View of the Report - The PVC market has been affected by the escalation of the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East. The prices have risen significantly, and overseas refineries have declared force majeure, leading to increased production cuts. Domestic ethylene prices have soared, and ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. Although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and prices have risen, PVC spot trading volume has not increased significantly. The short - term PVC market is supported by the spill - over of the Middle East situation, cost increases, and supply disruptions of domestic and overseas chlor - alkali plants. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation. [2] 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - For PVC, the 05 - contract futures price is 5724, the East China spot price is 5670, the basis is - 54, and the 5 - 9 month spread is - 18. There are no new overhauls for calcium carbide - based PVC, while ethylene - based PVC has made slight adjustments due to cost - related losses. [1] Market Condition Analysis - Affected by the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical conflict, the global energy and chemical market sentiment has heated up rapidly, and PVC prices have risen sharply. Overseas refineries have declared force majeure and production cuts are common. Domestic ethylene prices have risen continuously, and ethylene - based PVC production has decreased. Although the domestic supply - demand contradiction is expected to improve and prices have risen, PVC spot trading volume has not increased significantly. The short - term PVC market is supported by the spill - over of the Middle East situation, cost increases, and supply disruptions of domestic and overseas chlor - alkali plants. Later, attention should be paid to changes in the geopolitical situation. [2] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of PVC is 1, with the range of trend intensity being integers in the [-2, 2] interval. - 2 represents the most bearish view, and 2 represents the most bullish view. [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of caustic soda futures has risen due to the dual drivers of supply decline and increased exports. The core driving logic is the significant fluctuations in crude oil prices leading to large - scale price fluctuations in chemical futures, which have a great impact on caustic soda futures. Additionally, the conflict between the US and Iran has made it difficult to transport ethylene from the Middle East, causing overseas PVC plants to reduce their loads, and some domestic PVC enterprises that purchase ethylene externally to also reduce their loads, resulting in a passive reduction in the load of upstream chlor - alkali enterprises. This has led to a substantial increase in the export demand for domestic caustic soda. At the same time, some factories have reduced production due to sudden failures, further reducing the supply. Moreover, some downstream industries of liquid chlorine have reduced their liquid chlorine procurement plans due to maintenance or an inability to accept high prices, leading to a significant drop in the price of liquid chlorine, which in turn provides an upward driving force for the price of liquid caustic soda. Looking ahead, with the decline in overseas caustic soda production and the reduction in domestic supply, the logic of supply shortage and export volume increase still exists. However, it is necessary to be vigilant about the situation of long - position profit - taking and the regression of the basis when the overseas caustic soda procurement sentiment fades [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week from March 6th to March 12th, 2026, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 100,000 tons or more was 85.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The chlor - alkali loads in North China, Central China, and South China decreased significantly, driving the national chlor - alkali load to decline moderately. It is estimated that the national chlor - alkali load next week will be around 85%. The alumina production in this period was 1785,000 tons, a slight increase from the previous week. The production of viscose staple fiber was 92,000 tons, an increase of 600 tons from the previous week. As of March 12th, the physical inventory of viscose staple fiber factories was 147,100 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4600 tons and a year - on - year decrease of 15,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: As of March 12th, 2026, the comprehensive startup rate in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 50.15%, a month - on - month increase of 7.69%. The startup rate in the Shaoxing region was 51.11%, an increase of 8.89% from the previous data but a year - on - year decrease of 13.33%. The startup and orders of dyeing factories show an obvious differentiation trend. Most dyeing factories have fully resumed work, but the order structure is differentiated. Some enterprises focusing on digital printing and differentiated products have sufficient orders and extended delivery times. The industry mostly purchases on - demand, and the overall order - receiving of dyeing factories shows a "short - term and long - term" structure, with intense competition for conventional products. In terms of dyeing fees, enterprises have a strong willingness to raise prices, but the downstream acceptance is limited. The average startup rate of printing and dyeing enterprises in the Shengze region was 49.47%, an increase of 7.89% from the previous period and a year - on - year decrease of 12.11%. The terminal weaving industry is warming up slowly, and the domestic market and brand orders are mostly in a wait - and - see state. The rigid demand has been slightly released, mainly in small batches, and the large - scale orders are limited. In terms of foreign trade, due to unstable shipping factors, some brand and market orders have been placed, but the order volume is still significantly narrower than last year [5]. - **Export**: In December, the export volume of liquid caustic soda was 309,600 tons, and the export volume of flake caustic soda was 59,400 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: As of March 11th, 2026, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons or more in the country was 534,200 tons (wet tons), a month - on - month decrease of 3.86% and a year - on - year increase of 19.15%. The capacity utilization ratio of national liquid caustic soda sample enterprises this week was 30.41%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.33%. Except for the stable capacity utilization ratio in Central China and the increase in the Southwest, the capacity utilization ratios in the Northwest, Northeast, North China, East China, and South China decreased month - on - month [5]. - **Profit**: This Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2094 yuan/ton, the average price of liquid chlorine was 300 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit was 280 yuan/ton, which is at a historically low level. The strong chlorine and weak caustic soda situation has led to a low comprehensive chlor - alkali profit [5]. 3.2 Price - **Shandong Chlor - Alkali Spot Price**: The report presents the historical price trends of Shandong 32% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price, the price difference between Shandong 50% caustic soda and 32% caustic soda, Shandong liquid chlorine price, and Shandong 50% caustic soda minimum ex - factory converted to 100% price from 2023 to 2026 [7][8]. - **Flake Caustic Soda and Export Caustic Soda Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong flake caustic soda from 2023 to 2026 and the FOB price of caustic soda in East China from 2024 to 2026 [10][11]. - **Caustic Soda Futures Price, Basis, and Inter - Month Spread**: The report provides the historical price trends of the caustic soda main contract from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 32% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, the basis of the 50% caustic soda main contract in Shandong region from 2024 to 2026, and the spread between the SH04 - SH05 contracts from 2024 - 2025 and 2025 - 2026 [12][13]. - **Raw Salt and Coal Price**: It shows the historical price trends of Shandong sea salt market price from 2022 to 2026, Shandong well - mine salt market price from 2024 to 2026, and Qinhuangdao steam - coal closing price from 2022 to 2026 [15][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Caustic Soda Supply**: The report presents the historical trends of China's weekly caustic soda production, caustic soda startup rate, caustic soda plant loss volume, and cumulative caustic soda production from 2022 to 2026 [18][19]. - **Caustic Soda Maintenance Situation**: This week, the Ganzhou Luoci in East China - Jiangxi resumed operation after a shutdown for maintenance from February 14th to March 3rd; the Jiangmen Guangyue in South China - Guangdong is under maintenance since February 24th, and the recovery time is to be determined. In the future, Hubei Yihua in Central China - Hubei plans to have maintenance from March 11th to the end of March; Jinling New Materials in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in March, with the specific time to be determined; Kesai Chemical in Central China - Hubei plans to shut down in early April for about 15 - 20 days; Baililian in Central China - Henan has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined; Shandong Jinmao in North China - Shandong has a maintenance plan in April, with the specific time to be determined [22]. - **Caustic Soda Inventory and Chlor - Alkali Profit**: It shows the historical trends of China's sample enterprises' liquid caustic soda inventory (wet tons), caustic soda futures warehouse receipt quantity, caustic soda futures warehouse receipt (dry tons), and Shandong chlor - alkali enterprise profit from 2022 to 2026 [23][24]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of China's alumina production, Shandong alumina production, alumina production in the Shanxi, Hebei, Shandong, and Henan regions, alumina spot price in Shandong, Shandong alumina enterprise liquid caustic soda procurement price, electrolytic aluminum plant alumina inventory, alumina plant alumina inventory (excluding Xinjiang), and alumina in - transit inventory from 2022 to 2026 [27][28][29][30]. - **Textile Industry**: It shows the historical trends of viscose staple fiber capacity utilization rate, East China viscose staple fiber market price, viscose staple fiber factory inventory, Chinese cotton yarn enterprise viscose staple fiber inventory available days, Chinese textile enterprise weekly startup rate, Chinese textile enterprise order days, Chinese textile enterprise in - factory finished product inventory available days, and Jiangsu and Zhejiang region printing and dyeing factory startup rate from 2022 to 2026 [31][32][34][35]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: The report presents the historical trends of pulp production, paper product production, upstream factory paper product inventory available days, and China's machine - made paper and cardboard monthly production from 2021 to 2026 [37][38]. - **Export**: It shows the historical trends of China's monthly liquid caustic soda export volume, monthly flake caustic soda export volume, cumulative caustic soda export volume, and monthly caustic soda export volume from 2021 to 2025 [39][40].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint The short - term price of caustic soda futures is likely to maintain a volatile and game - playing pattern. The price is affected by the recovery rhythm of downstream industries'开工率, the production situation of main production areas, and the overall sentiment of the chemical products at the macro - level [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review On March 12, 2026, the main contract of caustic soda futures on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange opened higher and then oscillated and declined. It opened at 2523 yuan/ton, reached an intraday high of 2642 yuan/ton, and then fell back. The lowest was 2457 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 2489 yuan/ton, up 116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 1014036 lots, the open interest was 115667 lots, with a reduction of 14963 lots, and the variety's open interest decreased by 23869 lots [2]. 3.2 Main Influencing Factors The price fluctuation of caustic soda futures today is mainly driven by two factors. At the macro - level, the market's expectation of the recovery of downstream demand for chemical products has increased, driving the overall strength of related industrial product sectors, and the market sentiment pushed up the price at the opening stage. On the other hand, the concentrated departure of intraday profit - taking positions, combined with the lack of clear spot - end positive support, led to the price falling back after reaching a high, with the closing price falling 153 yuan/ton compared with the intraday high [2]. 3.3 Short - term Outlook In the short term, the price of caustic soda futures will probably maintain a volatile pattern. Three factors need to be focused on: the recovery rhythm of the 开工率 of downstream industries such as alumina, papermaking, and printing and dyeing; the production situation of caustic soda production enterprises in main production areas; and the overall sentiment trend of chemical products at the macro - level [2][3].

氯碱日报 | 2026-03-13 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2489元/吨（+6）；山东32%液碱基差-442元/吨（-6）。 乙烯法降负，电石法提负 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5620元/吨（+49）；华东基差0元/吨（+271）;华南基差90元/吨（+61）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价5620元/吨（+320）；华南电石法报价5710元/吨（+110）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格685元/吨（+0）；电石价格2910元/吨（+30）；电石利润72元/吨（+30）；PVC电石法生产 毛利267元/吨（+426）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-235元/吨（+48）；PVC出口利润155.1美元/吨（+57.1）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存37.7万吨（-8.1）；PVC社会库存63.2万吨（-0.4）；PVC电石法开工率81.89%（+1.48%）； PVC乙烯法开工率71.00%（-6.24%）；PVC开工率78.49%（-0.93%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量109.2万吨（+20.2）。 烧碱： 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价655元/吨（+0）；山东50% ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - PVC: Unilateral - Bullish with fluctuations; Cross - period - Go long on the V05 - 09 spread at low levels; Cross - variety - None [4] - Caustic Soda: Unilateral - Bullish with fluctuations; Cross - period - Wait - and - see; Cross - variety - None [5] 2. Core Viewpoints - PVC: After the cancellation of the export tax rebate on April 1st, due to the ongoing geopolitical conflicts, the overseas cracking units have reduced their loads. The supply of raw materials for ethylene - based PVC has tightened, and the export prospects have improved with a sharp rise in export prices. Some domestic ethylene - based enterprises also face raw material supply limitations, with an increasing expectation of load reduction. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, and the load may increase. Although the downstream demand is gradually recovering, the social inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure in March will be effectively alleviated. The market sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to geopolitical conflicts, export orders, and enterprise load changes [3] - Caustic Soda: Affected by geopolitical conflicts, overseas chlor - alkali plants may reduce their loads, increasing the domestic export inquiries. The load reduction of domestic ethylene - based PVC enterprises has increased the expectation of load reduction for integrated caustic soda. The supply is slightly increasing, and the demand from non - aluminum industries has increased, but the long - term demand from the aluminum oxide industry is under pressure. The current supply - demand situation has slightly improved, and attention should be paid to export orders, the price trend of 32% caustic soda, and price fluctuations [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the PVC main contract is 5571 yuan/ton (+342); the East China basis is - 271 yuan/ton (-192); the South China basis is 29 yuan/ton (-82) [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5300 yuan/ton (+150); the South China calcium carbide - based PVC is quoted at 5600 yuan/ton (+260) [1] - Upstream production profit: The semi - coke price is 685 yuan/ton (+0); the calcium carbide price is 2880 yuan/ton (+150); the calcium carbide profit is 42 yuan/ton (+150); the production gross profit of calcium carbide - based PVC is - 159 yuan/ton (+279); the production gross profit of ethylene - based PVC is - 283 yuan/ton (-294); the PVC export profit is 97.9 US dollars/ton (+122.7) [1] - PVC inventory and operation rate: The in - plant inventory of PVC is 45.8 tons (-4.6); the social inventory is 63.6 tons (+2.0); the operation rate of calcium carbide - based PVC is 80.41% (-1.36%); the operation rate of ethylene - based PVC is 77.24% (-3.16%); the overall PVC operation rate is 79.42% (-1.93%) [1] - Downstream order situation: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises is 89.0 tons (+11.0) [1] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas and some domestic ethylene - based PVC plants may reduce their loads. The profit of calcium carbide - based PVC has improved, and the load may increase [3] - Demand: The downstream operation rate is gradually recovering, but the social inventory is accumulating, and the inventory pressure in March is large. However, with the improvement of export and downstream recovery, the inventory pressure will be alleviated [3] - Cost: The cost pressure of ethylene - based PVC is increasing due to the reduction of overseas naphtha cracking units [3] Caustic Soda Market News and Key Data - Futures price and basis: The closing price of the SH main contract is 2483 yuan/ton (+156); the basis of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is - 436 yuan/ton (-156) [1] - Spot price: The price of 32% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 655 yuan/ton (+0); the price of 50% liquid caustic soda in Shandong is 1110 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - Upstream production profit: The single - product profit of caustic soda in Shandong is 1039 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) is 563.7 yuan/ton (+0); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) is 371.66 yuan/ton (-50); the comprehensive profit of chlor - alkali in the Northwest (1 ton of PVC) is 1519.32 yuan/ton (+652.53) [2] - Inventory and operation rate: The inventory of liquid caustic soda plants is 55.00 tons (+0.91); the inventory of flake caustic soda plants is 3.80 tons (-0.60); the operation rate of caustic soda is 86.40% (+1.50%) [2] - Downstream operation rate: The operation rate of aluminum oxide is 82.62% (-0.10%); the operation rate of printing and dyeing in East China is 42.46% (+18.12%); the operation rate of viscose staple fiber is 90.09% (+1.66%) [2] Market Analysis - Supply: The operation rate is slightly increasing, and the enterprises planned for maintenance in March may change [3] - Demand: The non - aluminum industries' demand has increased after the holiday, but the demand from the aluminum oxide industry is under pressure [3] - Cost: The cost support of caustic soda is weakening due to the increase in the price of liquid chlorine [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the basic chemical industry [9][42]. Core Viewpoints - The ongoing escalation of the Middle East situation has led to a significant increase in international oil prices, which in turn is driving up chemical product prices. The report suggests that coal chemical companies may benefit from this cost increase [5][9]. - The report highlights that the prices of various chemical products have surged, with notable increases in methanol and olefins due to rising costs [5][9]. - The report emphasizes the importance of the government's green and low-carbon transformation goals, which are expected to influence the chemical industry positively [5][9]. Market Performance - Over the past week (February 28 to March 6), the basic chemical index decreased by 0.56%, while the CSI 300 index fell by 1.07%, indicating that the basic chemical sector outperformed the broader market by 0.51 percentage points [3][14]. - The top-performing sub-industries within basic chemicals included coal chemicals (up 12.26%), nitrogen fertilizers (up 7.01%), and inorganic salts (up 6.91%) [3][17]. Chemical Product Price Trends - The top five products with the highest price increases over the past week were liquid chlorine (up 300.00%), international diesel (up 68.01%), and phthalic anhydride (up 56.13%) [4][25]. - Conversely, the products with the largest price declines included industrial-grade lithium carbonate (down 11.52%) and battery-grade lithium carbonate (down 11.09%) [4][23]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on several key sectors: 1. Refrigerants, with companies like Jinshi Resources and Juhua Co. recommended. 2. Chemical fibers, with a focus on Huafeng Chemical and Xin Fengming. 3. High-quality companies such as Wanhua Chemical and Hualu Hengsheng are also highlighted [9][42]. - The report encourages attention to the tire sector, recommending companies like Sailun Tire and Linglong Tire, as well as the agricultural chemicals sector with companies like Yara International and Salt Lake Potash [9][42].