氯碱四季报 S H ：四季度关注下游补库节奏 ， 需求仍存支撑 V ：供需矛盾较难解决 ， 关注四季度需求边际变化 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：三季度烧碱整体呈现宽幅震荡格局，7-8月下游集中补库提振盘面持续走强，9月盘面趋弱回落。下游方面，近期非铝补库结束，刚需买货为主，国庆后伴随非 铝库存下降或可能因为低价有采购意愿。主力氧化铝下游库存高补库意愿同样偏低，当前山东大厂送货量居高不下，未来收货价有下调预期。氧化铝产能高位，过剩问题存在，预 计若减产或需等到11月，因此短期烧碱需求尚存支撑。从投产节奏看，氧化铝在明年一季度有较多投产，因此今年四季度或有集中备货行为，届时现货流通性或收紧。因此预计四 季度烧碱下方空间有限，需跟踪下游补库节奏。 ◼ PVC主要观点：三季度pvc盘面处于持续下跌的趋势中，基本面供需矛盾依然较难缓解，盘面、现货价格共同趋弱。供应端方面，产量持续高位，过剩格局凸显。需求端，三季 度旺季未有明显表现，型材需求持续收缩，旺季不旺特征明显。整体上游持货意愿下降 ...

中化新网讯 近日，湖北兴瑞硅材料有限公司氯碱产品生产许可证续证申请顺利通过湖北省工业产品许 可证审核组的审核。 审核组严格依据国家工业产品生产许可证管理相关法规、标准及实施细则，对兴瑞硅材料公司7个氯碱 产品的质量管理职责、生产资源提供、人力资源配置、技术文件管理、过程质量控制、产品质量检验以 及安全生产等许可必备条件进行了评估，对该公司在保障产品质量安全、落实质量主体责任、满足许可 证各项要求方面所做的工作给予了充分肯定，同意通过审核。 ...

移诗语 Z0017002 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 9月26日 | 9月25日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2500.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百价 | 2600.0 | 2600.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 华东电石法PVC市场价 | 4740.0 | 4760.0 | -20.0 | -0.4% | | | 华东乙烯法PVC市场价 | 5000.0 | 5000.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | SH2509 | 2661.0 | 2668.0 | -7.0 | -0.3% | | | SH2601 | 2528.0 | 2537.0 | -9.0 | -0.4% | 元/吨 | | SH基美 | -161.0 | -168.0 | 7.0 | -4.2% | | | SH2509-2601 | 133.0 | 131.0 | 2.0 | 1.5% | | | V2509 | 533 ...

中泰期货烧碱周报 ——液氯价格未能如预期下跌 烧碱期货价格承压下行 2025 . 9 . 2 8 中泰期货研究所 ：郭庆 从业资格号：F3049926 交易咨询从业证书号：Z0016007 （数据更新时间截止至每周五23：59） 目 录 CONTEN T S 0 1 综述 0 2 价格 0 3 供应 0 4 需求 综述 01 | | | 烧碱产业链简述 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供应 | 产量 | 本周期（20250919-0925）中国20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为82.5%，较上周环比+0.6%。西北新增装置减产检修，负荷下滑；华北、 | | | | 华东有装置检修结束提负，负荷提升。具体来看，西北-2.8%至86.3%；华东+4.5%至79.9%，华北+1.2%至79.6%，其中山东+0.3%至88.0%。隆众测算， | | | | 下周来看，除西南外，其他6大区均有不同程度提负。预计下周烧碱产能利用率85.9%左右，周产量84.57万吨左右。（预估数据源自隆众资讯） 本周期（20250919-0925），中国氧化铝产量185.5万吨，环比上周186.1万吨下滑；山东氧 ...

氯碱周报 | 2025-09-28 烧碱主力下游继续下调接货价 烧碱：主力下游继续下调接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 价格方面：截至2025-09-26，烧碱期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2528元/吨（-9）；山东32%液碱基差-28元/吨（+9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1300元/吨（+0）。 供应方面：烧碱开工率82.50%，（+0.60%）；烧碱周度产量81.29万吨（+0.60）。 需求方面：主力下游氧化铝开工率85.95%（-0.28%），氧化铝周度产量185.50万吨（-0.60），氧化铝港口库存7.20 （+1.40）；印染华东开工率66.15%（+0.39%）；粘胶短纤开工率89.82%（+0.30%）；白卡纸开工率：82.72%（+0.69%）； 阔叶浆开工率84.70%（+2.50%）。 生产利润方面：截至2025-09-26，山东氯碱综合利润（1吨烧碱+0.8吨液氯）725.78元/吨（+0.00），山东氯碱综合利 润（1吨烧碱+1吨PVC）179.78元/吨（+0.00），山东烧碱单品种利润1508.90元/吨（+0.00），西北氯碱综合利 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. The烧碱 market sees a decline in 32% alkali prices and stable 50% alkali prices. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues, and non - aluminum demand is gradually recovering. Attention should be paid to downstream replenishment and new alumina production [3] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Market News and Important Data PVC - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The PVC main contract closed at 4935 yuan/ton (+16), with an East China basis of - 205 yuan/ton (-6) and a South China basis of - 105 yuan/ton (+4) [1] - **Spot Prices**: East China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4730 yuan/ton (+10), and South China calcium carbide - based PVC was quoted at 4830 yuan/ton (+20) [1] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The semi - coke price was 690 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide price was 2890 yuan/ton (+0), the calcium carbide profit was 48 yuan/ton (+0), the PVC calcium carbide - based production gross profit was - 657 yuan/ton (-155), the PVC ethylene - based production gross profit was - 652 yuan/ton (+20), and the PVC export profit was 5.2 dollars/ton (+0.1) [1] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: PVC factory inventory was 30.6 tons (-0.4), social inventory was 53.5 tons (+0.3), the calcium carbide - based PVC operating rate was 76.97% (+0.06%), the ethylene - based PVC operating rate was 74.12% (+2.12%), and the overall PVC operating rate was 76.11% (+0.68%) [1] - **Downstream Orders**: The pre - sales volume of production enterprises was 75.6 tons (+6.7) [1] 烧碱 - **Futures Prices and Basis**: The SH main contract closed at 2537 yuan/ton (-11), and the Shandong 32% liquid alkali basis was - 37 yuan/ton (+11) [1] - **Spot Prices**: Shandong 32% liquid alkali was quoted at 800 yuan/ton (+0), and Shandong 50% liquid alkali was quoted at 1300 yuan/ton (+0) [2] - **Upstream Production Profits**: The single - variety profit of Shandong caustic soda was 1509 yuan/ton (+0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 685.8 yuan/ton (+0.0), the Shandong chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 179.78 yuan/ton (+10.00), and the Northwest chlor - alkali comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1381.75 yuan/ton (+0.00) [2] - **Inventory and Operating Rates**: Liquid alkali factory inventory was 39.12 tons (+1.29), flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.08 tons (-0.10), and the caustic soda operating rate was 82.50% (+0.60%) [2] - **Downstream Operating Rates**: The alumina operating rate was 86.23% (+1.02%), the East China printing and dyeing operating rate was 66.15% (+0.39%), and the viscose staple fiber operating rate was 89.82% (+0.30%) [2] Market Analysis PVC - The PVC market fluctuates with the macro - environment. Supply is abundant due to new production capacity and reduced maintenance losses. Downstream demand shows some improvement, but the market is affected by export policies and high inventory. Attention should be paid to pre - National Day replenishment sentiment and macro - environment impacts [3] 烧碱 - The 32% alkali price has been continuously decreasing, while the 50% alkali price has stabilized. Production may increase slightly as some maintenance enterprises resume operations. Demand from alumina is stable but with high - price delivery issues. The 50% alkali inventory reduction drives the Shandong caustic soda inventory decline, but the national liquid alkali inventory has increased. Attention should be paid to the 32% alkali sales situation, non - aluminum demand resilience, new alumina production, and downstream replenishment [3] Strategy PVC - **Single - side Trading**: Fluctuate widely with the macro - environment [4] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Wait and see [4] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [4] 烧碱 - **Single - side Trading**: Wait and see [5] - **Inter - delivery Spread Trading**: Go long on the SH01 - 05 spread when it is low [5] - **Inter - commodity Spread Trading**: None [5]

氯碱产业期现日报 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 2025年9月26日 裔诗语 Z0017002 本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发明货对这些信息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。本报告反 映研究人员的不同观点、见解及分析方法，并不代表广发期货或其附属机构的立场。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或 所表达的意见并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或间价，投资者据此投资、风险自担。本报告旨在发送给厂发期货特定客户及其他专业人士， 版权间厂发期货所有,未经广发期货书面授权,任何人不得对本报告进行任何形式的发布、复制。如引用、刊发,需注明出处为厂发期货 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 注微信公众号 Z0020680 F03106873 | PVC、烧碱现货&期货 | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 品种 | 9月25日 | 9月24日 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 单位 | | 山东32%液碱折百价 | 2500.0 | 2500.0 | 0.0 | 0.0% | | | 山东50%液碱折百 ...

上市企业：镇洋发展（603213）,鄂尔多斯（600295）,北元集团（601568）,华塑股份（600935）,氯碱化 工（600618）,新疆天业（600075）,中泰化学（002092）,君正集团（601216）,嘉化能源（600273）,滨 化股份（601678） 相关报告：智研咨询发布的《2025-2031年中国烧碱行业市场调查研究及未来趋势预测报告》 2020-2025年1-5月中国烧碱(折100％)产量统计图 数据来源：国家统计局，智研咨询整理 知前沿，问智研。智研咨询是中国一流产业咨询机构，十数年持续深耕产业研究领域，提供深度产业研 究报告、商业计划书、可行性研究报告及定制服务等一站式产业咨询服务。专业的角度、品质化的服 务、敏锐的市场洞察力，专注于提供完善的产业解决方案，为您的投资决策赋能。 根据国家统计局数据显示：2025年5月中国烧碱(折100％)产量为379万吨，同比增长2.3%；2025年1-5月 中国烧碱(折100％)累计产量为1869.7万吨，累计增长4%。 ...

氯碱日报 | 2025-09-25 山东烧碱去库，PVC随建材行业稳增长情绪反弹 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4919元/吨（+28）；华东基差-199元/吨（-28）;华南基差-109元/吨（-28）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4720元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4810元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格690元/吨（+0）；电石价格2890元/吨（+0）；电石利润48元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-657元/吨（-155）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-652元/吨（+20）；PVC出口利润5.2美元/吨（+9.8）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存30.6万吨（-0.4）；PVC社会库存53.5万吨（+0.3）；PVC电石法开工率76.91%（-3.38%）； PVC乙烯法开工率72.00%（-5.20%）；PVC开工率75.43%（-3.96%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量75.6万吨（+6.7）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2548元/吨（+13）；山东32%液碱基差-48元/吨（-13）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价800元/吨（+0） ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Reports Crude Oil - Overnight oil prices rose due to increased market concerns about supply tightening, especially the return of geopolitical risk premiums. The attacks on Russian refining and export facilities by Ukraine led to concerns about supply disruptions, verified by the strengthening of diesel crack spreads and traders' bets on price increases. Additionally, the unexpected decline in US crude inventories and lower gasoline and distillate inventories supported the demand side. The short - term support for oil prices has increased, but marginal supply increments will limit the rebound amplitude. It is recommended to conduct unilateral band operations, with WTI in the range of [60, 66], Brent in [64, 69], and SC in [471, 502]. For options, wait for opportunities to expand after volatility increases [2]. Polyester Industry Chain - **PX**: Supply is expected to be abundant due to negative short - term operations and postponed maintenance of some domestic PX plants. Demand is weak as PTA processing fees are low, new PTA plants' commissioning is delayed, and multiple PTA plants have maintenance plans. PXN is expected to compress, but short - term prices may be supported by geopolitical events and pre - holiday demand. Strategies include short - term long on PX11 or shorting after a rebound [7]. - **PTA**: Supply is expected to shrink as new plant commissioning is delayed and maintenance plans are in place. Pre - holiday restocking demand supports the short - term basis, but the rebound space is limited under weak expectations. Absolute prices may be supported by geopolitical factors. Strategies include short - term long on TA or shorting after a rebound, and rolling reverse arbitrage on TA1 - 5 [7]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Short - term imports are expected to be low, and inventory is expected to decline. However, the terminal market is weak, and the basis fluctuates at a high level. In the long - term, supply will increase as new plants start up and demand seasonally declines, leading to inventory accumulation. Strategies include selling call options EG2601 - C - 4400 at high prices and reverse arbitrage on EG1 - 5 [7]. - **Short Fiber**: Supply is at a high level, and demand is in the peak season but with limited new orders. Prices are supported at low levels but lack upward momentum, following raw material fluctuations. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the processing fee on the disk oscillates between 800 - 1100 [7]. - **Bottle Chips**: Supply in September is lower than expected due to typhoons, and low prices and pre - holiday restocking demand support prices and processing fees. However, the supply - demand pattern remains loose. Strategies are the same as PTA, and the main - contract processing fee on the disk is expected to oscillate between 350 - 500 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - Urea futures rebounded on September 24 due to expectations of short - term supply contraction and technical repair. Shanxi Tianze plans to shut down some large - scale plants on October 7, which supports market sentiment. Although spot demand is weak, export orders provide some support [14][16]. Methanol - This week, both port and inland inventories decreased, partly due to typhoons in South China. Supply in the inland area is at a high level, and although unplanned maintenance has increased, some plants are expected to resume production in mid - September. The inventory pattern in the inland area is healthy, supporting prices. Demand is weak due to the traditional off - season. The overall valuation is neutral. The disk fluctuates between trading the reality of high inventory and weak basis and the expectation of overseas gas restrictions in the long - term [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: Supply is expected to remain high as some plants resume production or start producing, and there are maintenance plans. Demand is weak as most downstream products are in the red, and there are many maintenance plans for downstream plants in September - October. However, continuous de - stocking at ports may provide some support. Prices are driven by geopolitical and macro factors in the short - term. Strategies include BZ2603 following styrene and crude oil fluctuations [23]. - **Styrene**: Downstream demand is fair due to peak - season demand and pre - holiday stocking, but it is mainly for rigid needs. Supply is expected to decrease as overseas plants are under maintenance and exports are expected to increase. Port inventories are accumulating, pressuring prices. Strategies include shorting EB11 on price rebounds and widening the spread of EB11 - BZ11 [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Caustic Soda**: The market is weak. Supply is high, and the decline in alumina prices has squeezed the profit margins of domestic alumina enterprises, weakening the support for spot prices. Inventory in North China is rising, while in East China, it is falling due to tight supply and non - aluminum rigid demand. In Shandong, prices may continue to decline before the National Day holiday. Short - selling positions can be held [27]. - **PVC**: The market is also weak, and the supply - demand contradiction is difficult to resolve. Supply is expected to increase as many plants finish maintenance next week. Demand is limited as downstream product start - up rates are low, and buyers are resistant to high prices. Cost support is provided by rising calcium carbide prices and stable ethylene prices. PVC is expected to stop falling and stabilize during the September - October peak season [27]. Polyolefins - **PP**: Production has decreased recently due to heavy losses in PDH and external - propylene procurement routes, leading to increased unplanned maintenance and lower inventory. - **PE**: Maintenance has reached a peak, and the start - up rate is gradually increasing. Inventory in the upstream and mid - stream has decreased this week. More import offers from North America are emerging, and the supply rhythm and import offers need to be monitored. There is pressure on inventory accumulation for the 01 contract [31]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Prices and Spreads**: On September 25, Brent rose 2.48% to $69.31/barrel, WTI fell 0.38% to $64.74/barrel, and SC fell 1.55% to 483.60 yuan/barrel. Some spreads, such as Brent M1 - M3, increased, while others like WTI M1 - M3 decreased [2]. - **EIA Data**: As of the week ending September 19, 2025, US crude production increased to 1350.1万桶/日, refinery utilization rate decreased to 93%, commercial crude inventory decreased by 60.7万桶, and gasoline and distillate inventories also decreased [9]. Polyester Industry Chain - **Upstream Prices**: Brent crude (November) rose to $69.31/barrel, CFR Japan naphtha rose to $606/ton, etc. [7]. - **PX - Related**: CFR China PX rose to $812/ton, PX - naphtha spread decreased to 120 [7]. - **PTA - Related**: PTA East - China spot price rose to 4525 yuan/ton, TA01 - TA05 spread decreased [7]. - **MEG - Related**: MEG port inventory decreased to 700,000 tons, and the arrival forecast decreased [7]. - **Downstream Products**: POY150/48 price decreased to 6600 yuan/ton, and polyester bottle - chip price rose to 5804 yuan/ton [7]. Urea - **Futures**: On September 24, the 01 contract rose 0.90% to 1673 yuan/ton, the 05 contract rose 0.64% to 1724 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract rose 0.63% to 1745 yuan/ton [14]. - **Spot**: Shandong (small - particle) urea price remained at 1610 yuan/ton, and FOB China (small - particle) remained at $418/ton [15]. - **Supply**: Domestic urea daily production increased to 19.56 million tons on September 26, and the production start - up rate increased to 83.59% [16]. Methanol - **Prices and Spreads**: MA2601 closed at 2351 yuan/ton on September 24, up 0.34%. The spread between MA2509 and MA2601 widened. The basis of Taicang decreased [19]. - **Inventory**: As of Wednesday, methanol enterprise inventory decreased to 31.994%, port inventory decreased to 149.2 million tons, and social inventory decreased to 181.2% [19]. - **Start - up Rates**: Upstream domestic enterprise start - up rate decreased slightly, while downstream external - MTO device start - up rate increased [19]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Pure Benzene**: CFR China pure benzene rose to $726/ton, and the spread between pure benzene and naphtha decreased. Port inventory decreased [23]. - **Styrene**: Styrene East - China spot price rose to 6910 yuan/ton, and the basis of EB10 decreased [23]. Chlor - Alkali Industry - **Prices**: On September 24, Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda's converted - to - 100% price remained at 2500 yuan/ton, and East - China calcium - carbide - based PVC market price remained at 4740 yuan/ton [27]. - **Supply**: Caustic soda industry start - up rate decreased to 85.4%, and PVC total start - up rate decreased to 75.4% [27]. - **Demand**: Alumina industry start - up rate increased to 83.7%, and PVC downstream product start - up rates increased slightly [27]. Polyolefins - **Futures**: On September 24, L2601 closed at 7142 yuan/ton, up 0.52%, and PP2601 closed at 6877 yuan/ton, up 0.51% [31]. - **Spot**: East - China PP拉丝 spot price remained at 6720 yuan/ton, and North - China LDPE film - grade spot price rose to 7070 yuan/ton [31]. - **Inventory**: PE enterprise inventory decreased to 45.8 million tons, and PP enterprise inventory decreased to 52.0 million tons [31]. - **Start - up Rates**: PE device start - up rate increased to 80.4%, and PP device start - up rate decreased to 74.9% [31].