氯碱日报 | 2026-02-05 烧碱山东江苏去库 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5155元/吨（+84）；华东基差-285元/吨（+6）;华南基差-215元/吨（-14）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4870元/吨（+90）；华南电石法报价4940元/吨（+70）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润8.3美元/吨（+20.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1978元/吨（+9）；山东32%液碱基差-134元/吨（-9）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价590元/吨（+0）；山东50%液碱报价1010元/ ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "Market Perform" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dye chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices surged, with WTI crude oil increasing by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil rising by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Of the 319 products tracked, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), acetonitrile (32.86%), lithium carbonate (25.58%), and butadiene (25.31%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "In line with the market" for the basic chemical industry [3][4]. Core Insights - In January 2026, the CITIC Basic Chemical Industry Index rose by 10.13%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 6.37 percentage points and the CSI 300 Index by 8.48 percentage points, ranking 6th among 30 CITIC first-level industries [3][7]. - The report highlights a significant recovery in chemical product prices, with notable increases in liquid chlorine, lithium hydroxide, acetonitrile, lithium carbonate, and butadiene [3][8]. - The investment strategy for February 2026 suggests focusing on industries benefiting from anti-involution policies, such as chlor-alkali, pesticides, and polyester filament, as well as coal chemical sectors benefiting from rising oil prices [3][8]. Market Review - The basic chemical sector saw 30 out of 33 sub-industries increase in January 2026, with the dyeing chemicals, chlor-alkali, and spandex industries leading with increases of 30.94%, 26.69%, and 20.16% respectively [3][8]. - Among 529 stocks in the basic chemical sector, 424 stocks rose while 104 fell, with the top gainers including SDIC, Hongbaoli, and Runtu, which saw increases of 90.53%, 68.92%, and 68.54% respectively [3][8]. Product Price Tracking - In January 2026, international oil prices saw significant increases, with WTI crude oil rising by 13.57% to $65.21 per barrel and Brent crude oil increasing by 16.17% to $70.69 per barrel [3][8]. - Among 319 tracked products, 207 saw price increases, with the largest gains in liquid chlorine (71.43%), lithium hydroxide (44.10%), and acetonitrile (32.86%) [3][8]. Industry and Company News - In 2025, the chemical raw materials and chemical products manufacturing industry achieved a total profit of 376.62 billion yuan, although this represented a 7.3% decline from the previous year [15][17]. - The report notes that the chemical industry is expected to benefit from ongoing anti-involution policies, which may strengthen supply-side constraints and favor certain sub-industries [3][8].

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-04 液氯价格上涨，氧化铝下调烧碱采购价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5071元/吨（+57）；华东基差-291元/吨（-57）;华南基差-201元/吨（-37）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4870元/吨（+20）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+0）；电石利润52元/吨（+0）；PVC电石法生产毛 利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润-12.0美元/吨（-0.4）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价1969元/吨（-35）；山东32%液碱基差-125元/吨（+13）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价590元/吨（-7）；山东5 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of PVC is 0, indicating a neutral rating [3] Core View - In 2026, the supply-side production cut during the peak maintenance season may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor-alkali industry. Before the Spring Festival, the optimistic expectation is hard to be falsified, and the market continues to push up the valuation. However, if manufacturers do not cut production later, the market will still trade the delivery pressure and the excessively high forward premium [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 05 contract futures price of PVC is 5071, the East China spot price is 4800, the basis is -271, and the 5 - 9 month spread is -112 [1] Spot News - As the Spring Festival holiday approaches, the stocking demand in the domestic PVC spot market remains sluggish. The supply in the spot market is gradually increasing, and the pre - holiday inventory accumulation in the industry continues. Although the market has a unilateral increase under the influence of the upward push of the bulk chemical sector, it is difficult for the transaction center of the spot market to follow the increase [1] Market Condition Analysis - In the short term, PVC is supported by factors such as export rush, the Mercury - Free Convention, and future production cut expectations. Fundamentally, the high - production and high - inventory structure of the PVC market is difficult to change. Winter is the off - season for chlor - alkali enterprise maintenance, with basically no new maintenance. The futures contracts before the 03 contract still face the situation of high operation and weak demand. The expectation of significant inventory accumulation during the Spring Festival and the contango structure will also limit the market's space to trade low - valuation factors. At the same time, the rapid repair of the disk profit is not conducive to future production cuts and maintenance in the chlor - alkali industry. In addition, PVC warehouse receipts are still at a high level, and the future pressure on long - position holders to take delivery is still relatively large [1]

Report Investment Ratings | Product | Rating | | --- | --- | | Urea | ★★☆ | | Methanol | ★★★ | | Pure Benzene | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★☆☆ | | Plastic | ★★☆ | | PVC | ★☆☆ | | Caustic Soda | ★★★ | | PX | ★★★ | | PTA | ★★★ | | Ethylene Glycol | ★★★ | | Short Fiber | ☆☆☆ | | Glass | ★★★ | | Soda Ash | ☆☆☆ | | Bottle Chip | ★★★ | | Propylene | ★★★ | [1] Core Views - The olefin - polyolefin market is weak due to factors such as falling oil prices, reduced downstream demand, and supply pressure [2] - The polyester market faces challenges like price drops, inventory accumulation, and weak demand, but there are potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - The pure benzene - styrene market has a weakening fundamental outlook with cost support weakening and supply increasing [5] - The coal - chemical market has a weak methanol market and a range - bound urea market [6] - The chlor - alkali market shows a PVC with a potentially strong trend and a weak caustic soda market [7] - The soda ash - glass market has a soda ash facing supply - demand surplus and a glass with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8] Summary by Directory Olefin - Polyolefin - Propylene futures: Falling oil prices lead to a pessimistic market sentiment, and reduced downstream demand weakens the support for propylene [2] - Plastic and polypropylene futures: There is supply pressure in the polyethylene market, and weak downstream demand and high - price transaction difficulties exist in the polypropylene market [2] Polyester - PX and PTA: Prices fall due to oil prices. There are different outlooks in different periods, with current weak reality and potential opportunities in the second quarter [3] - Ethylene Glycol: Inventory increases, but there is a possibility of supply - demand improvement in the second quarter, while long - term pressure remains [3] - Short Fiber: Good short - term supply - demand pattern but weak downstream orders lead to a price decline following raw materials [3] - Bottle Chip:开工率下降，加工差有所修复，但长期产能压力仍在，短期随原料回落，中期关注库存表现 [3] Pure Benzene - Styrene - Pure Benzene: Spot price in East China rises, and there are expectations of increased utilization of downstream comprehensive production capacity, but the fundamental outlook is weakening [5] - Styrene: Futures price falls due to cost pressure, and the supply - demand fundamentals are weakening [5] Coal - Chemical - Methanol: Futures price drops, with weak coastal demand and difficult port de - stocking, and short - term行情受地缘风险影响较大 [6] - Urea: Spot price is stable with a slight decline, and the market is expected to fluctuate within a range [6] Chlor - Alkali - PVC: Night - session trading shows a strong trend, with cost support and good export demand [7] - Caustic Soda: Weak operation due to weak cost support and high inventory pressure [7] Soda Ash - Glass - Soda Ash: Shows an oscillating trend, with high supply and inventory pressure, and a long - term supply - demand surplus [8] - Glass: Shows a slightly strong oscillating trend, with potential seasonal inventory build - up but low valuation [8]

氯碱日报 | 2026-02-03 关注液氯价格波动 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价5014元/吨（-49）；华东基差-234元/吨（+49）;华南基差-164元/吨（+49）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4780元/吨（+0）；华南电石法报价4850元/吨（+0）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格735元/吨（+0）；电石价格2930元/吨（+50）；电石利润52元/吨（+50）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-744元/吨（+55）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利21元/吨（+70）；PVC出口利润-11.6美元/吨（-12.6）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存29.0万吨（-1.8）；PVC社会库存58.5万吨（+0.8）；PVC电石法开工率79.98%（-0.16%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.61%（-2.43%）；PVC开工率77.13%（-0.85%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量96.0万吨（+7.6）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2004元/吨（+29）；山东32%液碱基差-138元/吨（-32）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价597元/吨（-1）；山东50%液碱报价1 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - **Caustic Soda**: In January, affected by the low - price area in Shandong, the prices of caustic soda in surrounding provinces and cities declined. The average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong in January was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In February, the supply - demand contradiction of domestic caustic soda remained prominent. It was expected that the caustic soda price would run weakly before the Spring Festival [3]. - **PVC**: In January, the supply - demand pattern of PVC was weak. The price increase was mainly due to policy stimulus. In February, the PVC industry faced the pressure of pre - Spring Festival shipments. The price was expected to maintain a weak bottom - shock in the first half of the month and gradually stabilize in the second half [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Caustic Soda - **Price**: In January, the average price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 656.61 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 8.41% and a year - on - year decrease of 27.97%. In Jiangsu, it was 771.67 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 5.89% and a year - on - year decrease of 21.38% [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the caustic soda production was 379.2 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.7% and a year - on - year increase of 4.1%. The inventory in East China and Shandong decreased [24]. - **Demand**: In February, non - aluminum demand slowed down during the Spring Festival. Although the demand for alumina was relatively stable, it could not substantially support the demand for caustic soda [3]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the import volume of liquid caustic soda was 62.6 tons, a year - on - year increase of 225.8% and a month - on - month increase of 40.7%. The export volume was 30.96 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.4% and a month - on - month increase of 69.3% [49]. PVC - **Price**: In January, the PVC price was mainly driven by policy stimulus. In February, the price was expected to have limited increase, with a weak bottom - shock in the first half and a potential stabilization in the second half [3]. - **Supply**: In January, the PVC production was estimated to be 214.71 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.42%. The capacity utilization rate was 78.98%, a 0.56 - percentage - point increase from the previous period [68]. - **Demand**: The two major downstream industries of PVC, profiles and pipes, faced great pressure. The real - estate sector continued to have a negative impact on demand. The domestic demand did not improve significantly [73]. - **Inventory**: The total PVC inventory was still at the highest level in recent years [81]. - **Export**: In December 2025, the PVC export volume was 31.41 tons, a month - on - month increase of 14.07% and a year - on - year increase of 35.02%. The import volume was 2.46 tons, a month - on - month increase of 57.14% and a year - on - year increase of 12.99% [97].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, PVC's trend is strong due to factors like export rush, the Minamata Convention, stock funds, and future production cut expectations. However, the PVC market has a high - output and high - inventory structure that is difficult to change. Before the 03 contract, the futures contracts face a pattern of high operation and weak demand. The expected significant inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit the market's trading space for low - valuation factors, and the rapid recovery of the disk profit is not conducive to future production cuts and maintenance in the chlor - alkali industry. Also, PVC warehouse receipts are at a high level, and there is still significant pressure on long - position holders to take delivery. Overall, in 2026, the production cut in the maintenance peak season on the supply side may exceed expectations, which is beneficial for the profit repair of the chlor - alkali industry. Before the Spring Festival, the optimistic expectations are difficult to disprove, and the disk continuously raises the valuation. But if manufacturers do not cut production later, the market will still trade on delivery pressure and excessive forward premium [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - The 05 - contract futures price is 5063, the East China spot price is 4780, the basis is - 283, and the 5 - 9 spread is - 122. The domestic PVC spot market fundamentals remain dull. Industry supply is slowly increasing, but demand is gradually slowing due to the festival, and the inventory continues to accumulate. The disk was significantly pushed up in the afternoon due to carbon - emission - related remarks, but the spot market transactions were light, and the increase in spot prices was lower than that of the disk [2] 3.2 Market Condition Analysis - Short - term factors support the strong PVC trend, but the high - output and high - inventory structure persists. Before the 03 contract, there is a high - operation and weak - demand pattern. The expected inventory build - up during the Spring Festival and the contango structure limit trading space, and the rapid profit recovery is not conducive to production cuts. PVC warehouse receipts are high, and there is delivery pressure. In 2026, supply - side production cuts in the maintenance peak season may exceed expectations, and before the Spring Festival, optimistic expectations are hard to disprove, but if there are no production cuts later, the market will focus on delivery pressure and forward premium [3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The PVC trend intensity is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2], where - 2 means most bearish and 2 means most bullish [4]

证券日报网1月30日讯 ，天原股份在接受调研者提问时表示，目前PVC还是处于价格低位，处于亏损状 态，但是烧碱和水合肼盈利能力较强，综合下来公司氯碱板块仍然盈利。 （文章来源：证券日报） ...