烧碱产业日报 2025-11-18 利润持续，近期下游主力采购价下调，山东32%液碱市场价承压下跌。目前主力基差仍偏高，反映市场对 后市供需偏弱预期等待验证，关注12月氧化铝是否有集中减产计划。技术上，SH2601关注2250附近支撑。 免责声明 本报告中的信息均来源于公开可获得资料，瑞达期货股份有限公司力求准确可靠，但对这些信息的准确性及完整性不做任 何保证，据此投资，责任自负。本报告不构成个人投资建议，客户应考虑本报告中的任何意见或建议是否符合其特定状况。本 报告版权仅为我公司所有，未经书面许可，任何机构和个人不得以任何形式翻版、复制和发布。如引用、刊发，需注明出处为 瑞达期货股份有限公司研究院，且不得对本报告进行有悖原意的引用、删节和修改。 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | 主力收盘价:烧碱(日,元/吨) | 2286 | -5 烧碱主力合约持仓量(日,手) | 149936 | -717 | | | 期货前20名净持仓:烧碱(日,手) | -17632 | 63 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week, Qilu Petrochemical's 360,000 - ton unit restarted, while LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton and Henan Lianchuang's 400,000 - ton units were under maintenance, leading to a decline in PVC capacity utilization rate. The start - up rate of pipes increased slightly, while that of profiles continued to decline, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased slightly. Social inventory decreased slightly, but the inventory pressure remained high. The prices of raw materials such as calcium carbide, ethane, and vinyl chloride dropped, driving down the costs of calcium carbide and ethylene processes. Due to the weak spot price of PVC, the losses of both processes deepened. This week, LG Chemical's 400,000 - ton unit will restart, and the impact of previously restarted units will expand, so the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to increase. In winter, it is the off - season for chlor - alkali plant maintenance, and PVC generally maintains a high - start state. As the temperature drops, the terminal demand of infrastructure and real estate weakens, and the downstream start - up rate of PVC is expected to decline seasonally. There is no specific implementation time for India's anti - dumping duty, and overseas demand remains uncertain. The domestic supply - demand contradiction is significant, and it is difficult to reduce PVC inventory, with high inventory pressure likely to continue. The price support of calcium carbide and ethylene at the cost end is limited. In the short term, V2601 is expected to fluctuate weakly in the range of 4,490 - 4,620 [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 4,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 81 yuan. The trading volume was 904,897 lots, an increase of 104,133 lots. The open interest was 1,462,731 lots, an increase of 107,190 lots. The long position of the top 20 futures holders was 1,060,264 lots, an increase of 63,708 lots; the short position was 1,318,874 lots, an increase of 98,864 lots; the net long position was - 258,610 lots, a decrease of 35,156 lots [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,531.92 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.54 yuan. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4,692.5 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4,596.88 yuan/ton, a decrease of 9.38 yuan. The CIF price of PVC in China was 690 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 650 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 670 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 30 yuan/ton, an increase of 61 yuan [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2,750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in North China, it was 2,631.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan; in Northwest China, it was 2,484 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 24.5 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR Far East intermediate price of VCM was 488 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 538 US dollars/ton, an increase of 20 US dollars. The CFR Far East intermediate price of EDC was 179 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CFR Southeast Asia intermediate price was 184 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The operating rate of PVC was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24 percentage points; the operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 80.79%, a decrease of 0.42 percentage points; the operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 73.25%, a decrease of 6.44 percentage points. The total social inventory of PVC was 532,300 tons, a decrease of 13,400 tons; the inventory in the East China region was 484,900 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons; the inventory in the South China region was 47,400 tons, a decrease of 800 tons [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 45.399 million square meters, an increase of 5.59799 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.4858 billion square meters, an increase of 5.47106 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 358.6387 billion yuan, an increase of 41.6993 billion yuan [2]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 9.49%, a decrease of 0.11 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 10.12%, unchanged. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 14.42%, an increase of 0.36 percentage points [2]. 3.7 Industry News - From November 8th to 14th, the capacity utilization rate of PVC producers was 78.51%, a decrease of 2.24% compared with the previous period. The downstream start - up rate of PVC decreased by 0.06% to 49.54%, among which the start - up rate of pipes increased by 1.2% to 40.6%, and the start - up rate of profiles decreased by 0.65% to 36.96%. As of November 13th, the social inventory of PVC decreased by 1.27% to 1.0283 million tons compared with the previous week. As of November 13th, the average cost of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to 5,152 yuan/ton, and the average cost of ethylene - based PVC nationwide decreased to 5,239 yuan/ton; the profit of calcium carbide - based PVC decreased to - 823 yuan/ton, and the profit of ethylene - based PVC decreased to - 495 yuan/ton [2].

Core Viewpoint - Junzheng Group's stock has experienced fluctuations, with a current price of 5.18 CNY per share and a market capitalization of 43.709 billion CNY, reflecting a year-to-date increase of 1.37% and a recent decline of 3.36% over the past five trading days [1]. Financial Performance - For the period from January to September 2025, Junzheng Group reported a revenue of 18.691 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 1.63%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 2.798 billion CNY, showing a significant increase of 24.93% compared to the previous year [2]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of shareholders for Junzheng Group reached 184,700, an increase of 3.03% from the previous period. The average number of circulating shares per shareholder decreased by 2.94% to 45,682 shares [2]. Dividend Distribution - Since its A-share listing, Junzheng Group has distributed a total of 14.479 billion CNY in dividends, with 5.485 billion CNY distributed over the past three years [3]. Institutional Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the fourth largest circulating shareholder, holding 97.318 million shares, a decrease of 7.1485 million shares from the previous period. The fifth largest shareholder, Hongli Low Volatility (512890), increased its holdings by 8.048 million shares to 70.2073 million shares [3].

Group 1: Company Announcements - Yaxing Chemical plans to acquire 100% equity of Tianyi Chemical through a combination of share issuance and cash payment, with the transaction expected to add bromine series fine chemical products to its portfolio [1] - Jierong Technology elected Zhao Xiaoqun as the new chairman following the resignation of Zhang Shouzhi due to work adjustments [2] - Huan Tai Liquor's controlling shareholder plans to increase its stake in the company by investing between 70 million to 140 million yuan within six months [5] - Unigroup plans to acquire 1.28 million USD worth of shares in H3C, increasing its ownership from 81% to 82.8% [7] - Daily Interactive intends to invest up to 10 million yuan in the Yuhang AI Fund, which has a total scale of up to 100 million yuan [11] - Daan Gene's indirect controlling shareholder is set to change to Guangzhou Pharmaceutical Group, which will control 26.63% of the company after the completion of share transfers [12] Group 2: Industry Insights - The basic chemical industry is represented by Yaxing Chemical, which focuses on chlorinated polyethylene and caustic soda production [1] - Jierong Technology operates in the electronic industry, specializing in precision molds and components [2] - Huan Tai Liquor is part of the food and beverage industry, specifically in the production and sale of alcoholic beverages [5] - Unigroup is involved in the IT services sector, providing comprehensive ICT infrastructure and services [7] - Daily Interactive operates in the software development industry, offering data intelligence products and solutions [11] - Daan Gene is in the medical biotechnology sector, focusing on molecular diagnostic technologies [12]

氯碱日报 | 2025-11-18 烧碱下游调低接货价 市场要闻与重要数据 PVC: 期货价格及基差：PVC主力收盘价4601元/吨（-7）；华东基差-101元/吨（-13）;华南基差-11元/吨（-3）。 现货价格：华东电石法报价4500元/吨（-20）；华南电石法报价4590元/吨（-10）。 上游生产利润：兰炭价格800元/吨（+0）；电石价格2805元/吨（-25）；电石利润-125元/吨（-25）；PVC电石法生产 毛利-820元/吨（-50）；PVC乙烯法生产毛利-491元/吨（-26）；PVC出口利润-1.2美元/吨（-1.3）。 PVC库存与开工：PVC厂内库存32.2万吨（-1.2）；PVC社会库存53.2万吨（-1.3）；PVC电石法开工率79.57%（-0.60%）； PVC乙烯法开工率70.13%（-7.10%）；PVC开工率76.71%（-2.57%）。 下游订单情况：生产企业预售量69.9万吨（-4.3）。 烧碱： 期货价格及基差：SH主力收盘价2291元/吨（-36）；山东32%液碱基差147元/吨（+5）。 现货价格：山东32%液碱报价780元/吨（-10）；山东50%液碱报价 ...

开工：据卓创资讯（301299）监测，截至本周四，全国主要地区样本企业周度加权平均开工负荷率为 89.79%，较上周89.86%下降0.07个百分点。本周部分氯碱装置因检修或突发故障而减产，开工负荷率略 有下降。 32碱周均价794元/吨，环比-0.75%。50碱周均价1250元/吨，环比持平。山东市场各市表现不一，山东西 部、西南部走货不畅，库存上升后，降价销售，导致东西部价格无异，影响山东整体32碱均价下滑。32 碱周均价794元/吨，环比-0.75%。50碱周均价1250元/吨，环比持平。山东市场各市表现不一，山东西 部、西南部走货不畅，库存上升后，降价销售，导致东西部价格无异，影响山东整体32碱均价下滑。本 周江苏地区低浓度液碱市场稳中趋弱，周均价910元/吨，环比下调2.15%，虽部分区域装置检修尚未恢 复，但需求未有实质性亮点提振，价格偏弱下调。 免责声明：本报告中的信息均来源于被广发期货有限公司认为可靠的已公开资料，但广发期货对这些信 息的准确性及完整性不作任何保证。在任何情况下，报告内容仅供参考，报告中的信息或所表达的意见 并不构成所述品种买卖的出价或询价，投资者据此投资，风险自担。本报告的最 ...

氯碱周报 S H ：主力下游拿货积极性一般 ， 价 格 缺乏支撑 V ：需求支撑乏力 ， 价格难言乐观 广发期货研究所 蒋诗语 投资咨询资格：Z0017002 本报告及路演当中所有观点仅供参考，请务必阅读此报告倒数第二页的免责声明 观点及策略建议 ◼ 烧碱主要观点：烧碱行业供需仍存一定压力，主力下游氧化铝买货积极性下降，因此烧碱主要需求端支撑较弱，向上传到压制烧碱价格。北方环保管控期，部分氧化铝厂或有 减产预期。华东地区有检修预期，供应将小幅收窄，刚需存一定支撑因此该区域价格或较为坚挺，但长期看供需仍有压力。非铝市场依旧不温不火，整体看供需压力仍较大，预计 烧碱价格偏弱震荡。 ◼ PVC主要观点：本周PVC现货市场延续弱势震荡，周内检修及部分装置降负荷带动产量环比减少，但仍处高位，受局部物流影响市场到货减少，社会库存环比减少；下周供应端 开工率会有提升，需求端11月-次年1月处于传统需求淡季，北方进入冬季室外施工逐渐减少，整体地产需求减量仍形成利空影响。出口方面，印度官方取消2024年发布的进口PVC BIS认证政策，有利于国内PVC进入印度市场，虽然印度取消BIS认证，但是反倾销税预期执行，加之下周继续观望 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, indicating a relatively bearish view [4] Core View of the Report - The high - production and high - inventory pattern of caustic soda continues, and the market keeps shorting the chlor - alkali profit [3] - The impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda basically offsets each other, and the supply pressure in the domestic market increases [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is always suppressed by the alumina production - cut expectation, and the cost support is limited, making it difficult for caustic soda to rebound significantly [3] - In the long term, the alumina production - cut problem will lead to negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On November 18, 2025, the 01 - contract futures price was 2291, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 760, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2375, and the basis was 84 [1] Spot News - On November 17, due to poor unloading of alumina, the main downstream product in Shandong, the purchase price of 32% caustic soda was reduced by 10 yuan to 720 yuan, and the transaction prices in cities across Shandong followed the decline, with a relatively large drop in the southwestern Shandong market due to high inventory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The high - production and high - inventory situation of caustic soda persists, and the market is shorting chlor - alkali profit [3] - From the demand side, the impact of alumina's production - start and production - cut expectations on caustic soda offsets each other. In winter, there is limited supply - demand gap caused by stockpiling under high - operation conditions. Non - aluminum downstream support is limited, and exports are under pressure, increasing domestic supply pressure [3] - The valuation of caustic soda is suppressed by alumina production - cut expectations, cost support is limited, and without production cuts by manufacturers, it's hard for caustic soda to rebound significantly. In the long run, alumina production cuts will cause negative feedback in the industrial chain [3] Trend Strength - The trend strength of caustic soda is -1, with a range of [-2, 2], where -2 is the most bearish and 2 is the most bullish [4]

Group 1 - The company, Taihe Technology, announced the convening of its fourth board meeting on November 17, 2025, to discuss the revision of the senior management compensation management system [1] - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Taihe Technology is as follows: water treatment industry accounts for 86.17%, chlor-alkali industry accounts for 13.42%, and others account for 0.41% [1] - As of the report date, Taihe Technology has a market capitalization of 8.3 billion yuan [1]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-11-17 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格企稳，盘面震荡偏弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所减少，产量有所上升。周度国内烧碱产量环比上涨0.8万吨至84万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.8%，较上 周环比+0.5%。分区域来看，西北、东北、华南负荷均有上升，其中东北涨幅最大+27.9%至88.9%；华南+5.8%至89.1%。华北、华中有装置检修、减产， | | | | 开工下滑，华北-1.5%至76.5%，华中-3.0%至79.1%，其中山东-1.9%至87.2%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）氧化铝开工有 ...