食品加工包装在线 . 食品加工包装在线（www.sjgle.com）项下资讯平台，汇聚深度报道、科普知识、政策解读、企业动 态、专业活动等行业热点信息。 // // 点击蓝字 点击蓝字 · · 关注我们 关注我们 //// 油脂精炼是油脂加工的重要手段，可去除加工过程产生的水分、蛋白质、胶质、色素等一系列影响油 脂品质的杂质。精炼技术一般为脱胶、脱酸、脱色、脱臭，包含物理和化学多种方法。为改善传统技 术的不足，实现油脂适度、绿色加工，国内外学者对新型精炼技术进行了广泛研究。 以下文章来源于食品加工包装在线 ，作者小泥沙 01 脱胶 脱胶是指将毛油中所含磷脂等胶质去除。脱胶工艺被认为是油脂精炼加工中最重要的环节之一。脱胶效果的好坏将 直接影响成品油脂的质量和产量。在化学精炼时，因为脱胶之后伴随的脱酸工序可以进一步将残余磷脂等胶质去 除，所以在化学精炼中脱胶工序后磷脂等物质允许有一定的残留量；但是物理精炼过程中，如果脱胶后的磷脂残留 量超标，往往在其后工序中很难完全去除，会影响最终产品的风味和氧化稳定性。所以相对化学精炼，物理精炼方 法虽然无需脱酸，可减少废弃物的产生，有利于环境保护，但是因其对脱胶效果要求极高， ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report analyzes the price trends, basis changes, inventory levels, supply - demand situations of domestic three major oils (palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil), and provides short - and medium - long - term price forecasts for palm oil [2][35][36]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Domestic Three Major Oils Spot Price Trends - From July 25 to August 1, 2025, the palm oil futures主力合约 (P2509) decreased by 0.29% to 8910, and the spot price decreased by 0.04% to 9012; the rapeseed oil futures主力合约 (OI2509) increased by 0.71% to 9524, and the spot price increased by 0.33% to 9622; the soybean oil futures主力合约 (Y2509) increased by 1.60% to 8274, and the spot price increased by 0.48% to 8454 [2]. 3.2 Three Major Oils Basis Changes - As of July 31, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 262 yuan/ton (increased by 14 yuan/ton from the previous week), 111 yuan/ton (increased by 13 yuan/ton), and 112 yuan/ton (increased by 44 yuan/ton) respectively. As of August 1, 2025, the YP spread was - 636 yuan/ton (increased by 158 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. 3.3 Domestic Three Major Oils Inventory Trends - As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas was 9.55 tons (increased by 0.30 tons from the previous week), the palm oil commercial inventory in factories was 61.55 tons (increased by 2.41 tons), the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills was 108.81 tons (decreased by 0.37 tons), and the total inventory of the three major oils was 179.91 tons (increased by 2.34 tons) [10]. 3.4 Supply - side Analysis 3.4.1 Palm Oil Supply - side - MPOB data shows that Malaysia's palm oil ending inventory in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, Indonesia's palm oil ending inventory decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [16]. 3.4.2 Soybean Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the national port soybean inventory was 8.085 million tons (increased by 0.106 million tons from the previous week), the soybean inventory in major national oil mills was 6.4559 million tons (increased by 0.0335 million tons), and the oil mill operating rate was 58% (increased by 3%). As of August 1, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 722.05 yuan/ton (decreased by 0.85 yuan/ton from the previous week) [21]. 3.4.3 Rapeseed Oil Supply - side - As of July 25, 2025, the total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons (decreased by 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of August 1, 2025, the imported rapeseed crushing profit was 295.20 yuan/ton (increased by 39.6 yuan/ton from the previous week) [26]. 3.5 Demand - side Analysis - On July 31, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 200 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 2500 tons, and the POGO spread was 352.24 dollars/ton (decreased by 12 dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [32]. 3.6 Three Major Oils Fundamental Analysis - Policy: The US biodiesel policy is favorable. - Overseas: According to the USDA June report, the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production of Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report shows that Malaysia's palm oil production in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4%. - Import and crushing: The oil mill operating rate increased by 3% from the previous week, and the soybean inventory increased. The rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15,000 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous week. - Inventory: As of July 25, the rapeseed oil inventory in coastal areas increased to 95,500 tons, the palm oil commercial inventory in factories increased to 615,500 tons, and the soybean oil inventory in national oil mills decreased to 1.0881 million tons. - Spot: This week, the spot prices of oils showed mixed trends. The spot price of palm oil decreased by 0.04%, the spot price of soybean oil increased by 0.48%, and the spot price of rapeseed oil increased by 0.33%. - Risks: The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [33]. 3.7 Strategy Recommendation 3.7.1 Palm Oil Single - week Summary - This week, palm oil slightly declined by 0.02%. From January to May 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports to the US increased by 51.8% year - on - year. Since August 1, 2025, the US has imposed additional import tariffs of 19% and 25% on Indonesian and Malaysian palm oil respectively. The EU may allow Indonesian palm oil to enter its market at zero - tariff with a quota system. The BMD crude palm oil futures ended a two - day rising trend. Malaysia's palm oil exports in July decreased by 9.6% compared to June. India set the reference price for crude palm oil exports in August at 910.91 dollars/ton, higher than 877.89 dollars/ton in July [35]. 3.7.2 Price Forecast - Short - term: Palm oil is hovering around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8750 - 9050. - Medium - long - term: The palm oil主力合约 has broken through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise. The expected fluctuation range is 8600 - 9400 [36]. 3.8 Next Week's Focus and Risk Warning - The production situation of Malaysian palm oil and weather [37].

油脂日报 | 2025-08-01 马棕出口放缓，油脂震荡 油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2509合约8900.00元/吨，环比变化-82元，幅度-0.91%；昨日收盘豆油2509合约8192.00 元/吨，环比变化-48.00元，幅度-0.58%；昨日收盘菜油2509合约9510.00元/吨，环比变化-111.00元，幅度-1.15%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价8940.00元/吨，环比变化-60.00元，幅度-0.67%，现货基差P09+40.00，环比变化 +22.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8330.00元/吨，环比变化-40.00元/吨，幅度-0.48%，现货基差Y09+138.00， 环比变化+8.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格9600.00元/吨，环比变化-110.00元，幅度-1.13%，现货基差OI09+90.00， 环比变化+1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：船运调查机构ITS数据显示，马来西亚7月1-31日棕榈油出口量为1289727吨，较上月同期出口 的1382460吨减少6.71%。印度植物油生产商协会（IVPA）表示，随着全球价格下降，印度植物油进口商正在增 ...

2025/7/29 09:59 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA⻢棕7⽉前25⽇产量增加5.52% USDA美⾖优良率为70%⾼于市场预期 20250729 【国富期货早间看点】SPPOMA马棕7月前25日产量增加5.52% USDA美豆优良率为70%高于市场预期 20250729 国富研究 国富研究 2025年07月29日 07:33 上海 01 隔夜行情 | | 收盘价 | 上日涨跌幅(%) | 隔夜涨跌幅(%) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马棕油10(BMD) | 4242. 00 | -0. 87 | 0. 07 | | 布伦特10(ICE) | 69. 60 | 2.96 | 0. 81 | | 美原油09(NYMEX) | 66. 98 | 2.94 | 0. 74 | | 美豆11(CBOT) | 1011. 50 | -1.00 | -0. 27 | | 美豆箱12(CBOT) | 279. 40 | -0. 82 | -0. 18 | | 美豆油12(CBOT) | 55. 97 | 0. 09 | -0. 41 | | | 最新价 | 涨跌幅(%) 十日涨跌 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of the three major oils oscillated yesterday. With the expected increase in Malaysian palm oil production, declining export data, and growing pressure on inventory accumulation, coupled with favorable weather conditions in the US soybean - producing areas and the gradual realization of high - yield expectations, the supply pressure is significant, causing the oils to face downward pressure and oscillate [3] 3. Summary by Related Content Futures and Spot Prices - Futures: On the previous trading day, the closing price of the palm oil 2509 contract was 8946.00 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.11% compared to the previous day; the closing price of the soybean oil 2509 contract was 8120.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 24.00 yuan or - 0.29%; the closing price of the rapeseed oil 2509 contract was 9406.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 51.00 yuan or - 0.54% [1] - Spot: In the Guangdong region, the spot price of palm oil was 8920.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 40.00 yuan or - 0.45%, with a spot basis of P09 + - 26.00, a change of - 50.00 yuan; in the Tianjin region, the spot price of first - grade soybean oil was 8230.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 30.00 yuan/ton or - 0.36%, with a spot basis of Y09 + 110.00, a change of - 6.00 yuan; in the Jiangsu region, the spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil was 9500.00 yuan/ton, a change of - 60.00 yuan or - 0.63%, with a spot basis of OI09 + 94.00, a change of - 9.00 yuan [1] Market Information Summary - Palm oil: From July 1 - 25, 2025, according to SPPOMA data, the yield per unit area of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.08% month - on - month, the oil extraction rate decreased by 0.10% month - on - month, and the production increased by 5.52% month - on - month. The expected export volume of Malaysian palm oil from July 1 - 25 was 684308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Rapeseed and rapeseed oil: As of July 25, 2025, the rapeseed inventory of major coastal oil mills was 13.7 million tons, a decrease of 2.5 million tons from the previous week; the rapeseed oil inventory was 9.55 million tons, an increase of 0.30 million tons from the previous week; the unexecuted contracts were 10.1 million tons, a decrease of 0.8 million tons from the previous week [2] - Soybean oil: As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key national regions was 108.81 million tons, a decrease of 0.37 million tons or 0.34% from the previous week [2] - Import prices: The C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (August shipment) was 1183 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Argentine soybean oil (October shipment) was 1140 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 1 US dollar/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (August shipment) was 1060 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed oil (October shipment) was 1040 US dollars/ton, an increase of 30 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (October shipment) was 583 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Canadian rapeseed (December shipment) was 573 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 3 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The C&F price of US Gulf soybeans (August shipment) was 457 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of US West soybeans (August shipment) was 452 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day; the C&F price of Brazilian soybeans (September shipment) was 471 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 2 US dollars/ton from the previous trading day. The import soybean premium quotes: the premium for the Mexican Gulf (August shipment) was 224 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for the US West Coast (August shipment) was 197 cents/bushel, a decrease of 2 cents/bushel from the previous trading day; the premium for Brazilian ports (September shipment) was 262 cents/bushel, a decrease of 3 cents/bushel from the previous trading day [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings | Industry | Rating | | --- | --- | | Oils and Fats | Volatile [5] | | Protein Meal | Volatile [5] | | Corn and Starch | Volatile [5] | | Live Pigs | Volatile [6] | | Natural Rubber | Volatile [7] | | Synthetic Rubber | Volatile [11] | | Cotton | Volatile [11] | | Sugar | Volatile [12] | | Pulp | Volatile, Slightly Bullish [14] | | Logs | Volatile, Slightly Bearish [16] | 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes multiple agricultural products, finding that most are in a volatile state. Factors such as policy regulation, supply - demand relationships, and macro - environment impact the market. For instance, the anti - involution policy in the live pig industry affects its supply and demand expectations; the complex supply - demand situation in the oils and fats market leads to market fluctuations [1][5]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Market sentiment has weakened, and attention should be paid to the effectiveness of lower technical support [5]. - **Logic**: Uncertainty in export demand, good weather in production areas, and various supply - demand factors at home and abroad are in play. For example, the expected increase in US biodiesel demand for soybean oil, the increase in domestic soybean imports and inventory, and the increase in palm oil production season [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is facing a game of multiple factors, and it is expected to be volatile [5]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: As sentiment fades, both types of meal see reduced positions and price drops [5]. - **Logic**: Abundant precipitation and suitable temperature in US soybean production areas are conducive to high yields. Domestically, short - term soybean arrivals increase, while long - term supply may face shortages [5]. - **Outlook**: The market is expected to maintain a pattern of near - term weakness and long - term strength [5]. 3.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Spot prices are generally stable, waiting for new guidance [5]. - **Logic**: Supply is tightening, but downstream demand is weak. New - season corn production is normal, and imported corn supply is abundant [5][6]. - **Outlook**: Short - term price rebounds may occur, but there is a downward trend after new - crop listing [6]. 3.4 Live Pigs - **View**: Emotional trading has cooled, and the futures price has fallen from its high [1][6]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the supply is affected by industry guidance and farmer sentiment; in the medium - term, the supply is expected to increase; in the long - term, policies may lead to a supply inflection point. Demand is limited due to hot weather, and inventory pressure exists [1][6]. - **Outlook**: The market is volatile, with a situation of "weak present, strong future." Anti - spread strategies can be considered [6]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The commodity market has adjusted sharply, and rubber prices have dropped significantly [7]. - **Logic**: The market decline is mainly due to regulatory impacts on leading varieties. Fundamentally, supply is affected by the rainy season, and demand is relatively stable [7]. - **Outlook**: The market will continue to trade based on the macro - environment, and it is expected to be volatile [7]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The futures price continues to fluctuate accordingly [11]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall market macro - environment, the raw material price is volatile, and the supply is relatively tight in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is expected to maintain a range - bound operation [11]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: The monthly spread is converging [11]. - **Logic**: Supply is expected to be abundant, demand is in the off - season, and inventory is at a low level. Low inventory supports prices, but the upside is limited in the short - term [11]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile. Low inventory supports prices, but upward resistance increases, and the monthly spread may follow an anti - spread logic [11]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Attention should be paid to import conditions [12]. - **Logic**: The global sugar market supply is expected to be abundant. In Brazil, the sugar - making ratio is expected to remain high. In China, imports are increasing, which will put pressure on prices [13]. - **Outlook**: In the long - term, prices are expected to decline; in the short - term, there are short - selling opportunities [13]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Anti - involution trading may resume, and attention should be paid to arbitrage hedging during the decline [14]. - **Logic**: The supply of hardwood pulp is excessive, and demand is weak in the short - term but may improve marginally in the future. There is a ceiling on price increases [14]. - **Outlook**: Fluctuations follow the macro - environment, and futures prices are expected to rise with volatility [14]. 3.10 Logs - **View**: Fundamental changes are limited, and it is short - term dominated by macro - expectations [16]. - **Logic**: It follows the "anti - involution" macro - policy. Supply is affected by shipping rhythms, and demand is stable with no obvious peak or off - season [16]. - **Outlook**: It is volatile and slightly bearish in the short - term. Pay attention to changes in effective deliverable quantities of the 09 contract [16][17].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period, with favorable weather in major producing areas, causing some long - positions to leave. CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil exports have declined in July, production has increased month - on - month, and the prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil are weak, increasing the pressure on Malaysian palm oil futures to correct [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil spot supply is abundant, and the result of the Sino - US trade negotiation is crucial for future imported soybean supply. Palm oil inventory has slightly rebounded, maintaining a pattern of weak supply and demand, and its price follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is gradually falling, but the spot supply is still sufficient. The weather in the Canadian rapeseed - growing area is good, and ICE rapeseed fluctuates narrowly. The uncertainty of imports still supports rapeseed oil prices, which are expected to continue the range - bound pattern in the short term [6] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Macro and Industry News - Argentina cuts export tariffs on most agricultural products, including reducing the tariff on sunflower seeds from 7% to 4%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean meal and soybean oil from 31% to 24.5% [2] - The US and the EU reach a major trade agreement, with the EU imposing a unified 15% tariff on most goods exported to the US, lower than the original 30% [2] - Malaysian palm oil exports from July 1 - 25 are expected to be 684,308 tons, a decrease of 8.53% compared to the same period last month [2] - Indonesia's palm oil exports will decrease by 5.1% in 2025, from 29.5 million tons last year to 28 million tons due to increased domestic consumption [2] - As of July 25, 2025, the commercial inventory of soybean oil in key regions in China is 1088100 tons, a decrease of 3700 tons or 0.34% compared to last week [2] 2. Fundamental Data Charts - Not provided 3. Views and Strategies - International: US soybeans are in a critical growth period. Some long - positions leave waiting for the result of the new round of US trade negotiations, and CBOT soybean futures continue to decline slightly. Malaysian palm oil faces increased correction pressure due to export decline, production increase, and weak prices of international crude oil and US soybean oil [5][6] - Domestic: Soybean oil supply is abundant, and the Sino - US trade negotiation result is crucial for future imports. Palm oil maintains a weak supply - demand pattern and follows the import cost. Rapeseed oil inventory is falling, but supply is still sufficient, and the uncertainty of imports supports its price, which is expected to range - bound in the short term [6]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【油脂周报（P&Y&OI)】 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 油脂：宏观情绪降温后警惕回调风险 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 棕榈油观望； 豆油偏空； 菜油偏多 | （1）马来棕榈油7月高频数据显现增产但印尼5月减产去库对价格有支撑；（2）豆油供应充足；（3）菜籽库存历史低位，短期压榨偏少。 | | 需求 | 棕榈油菜油 偏多 | （1）印尼棕榈油出口大增、马来出口减弱；（2）美生柴配额提振国际油脂需求，主要利多棕榈油、菜油。 | | 库存 | 菜油棕榈油 中性偏空； 豆油偏空 | （1）国内棕榈油逐渐累库；（2）豆油库存被动累库；（3）国内菜油库存高位去化。 | | 宏观及政策 | 棕榈油偏多； 菜油中性偏 | （1）宏观情绪有所降温；（2）美国生柴政策或将改变全球油脂供需格局；（3）澳菜籽有望进入国内市场，利空菜油；（4）印尼有望明年实施B50。 | | | 空。 | | | 投资 ...

Report Title - Policy and fundamentals are intertwined, and the oscillation of oils and fats continues [1][2][8] Core Views - Palm oil is in a stage of oscillating upward, and the price center is expected to rise in the later period. The p2509 contract is expected to be mainly in a strong oscillation. [3] - Soybean oil is prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The y2509 contract has resistance at the price of 18,400. [3] - Rapeseed oil is also prone to rise but has limited upward space in the short term. The 01509 contract has resistance at the price of 9,800. [3] Week - on - Week Data Changes DCE Palm Oil - 01 contract: The closing price this week was 8,104.0, down 14 from last week, a decline of 0.17%. The 1 - 5 spread was 366.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 4.69%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 7,738.0, up 4 from last week, an increase of 0.05%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 406.0, up 20 from last week, a change of - 4.69%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,144.0, down 16 from last week, a decline of 0.20%. The 9 - 1 spread was 40.0, down 2 from last week, a decline of 4.76%. [9] DCE Soybean Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 8,928.0, down 4 from last week, a decline of 0.04%. The 1 - 5 spread was 270.0, down 18 from last week, a decline of 6.25%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 8,658.0, up 14 from last week, an increase of 0.16%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 278.0, up 42 from last week, a change of - 13.12%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 8,936.0, down 28 from last week, a decline of 0.31%. The 9 - 1 spread was 8.0, down 24 from last week, a decline of 75.00%. [9] CZCE Rapeseed Oil - 01 contract: The closing price was 9,401.0, down 108 from last week, a decline of 1.14%. The 1 - 5 spread was 91.0, down 38 from last week, a change of 11.00%. [9] - 05 contract: The closing price was 9,310.0, down 70 from last week, a decline of 0.75%. The 5 - 9 spread was - 147.0, up 59 from last week, a change of - 27.50%. [9] - 09 contract: The closing price was 9,457.0, down 129 from last week, a decline of 1.35%. The 9 - 1 spread was 56.0, down 21 from last week, a change of 22.46%. [9] International Market Analysis Southeast Asian Palm Oil - Malaysia: From July 1 - 20, according to ITS, palm oil exports decreased by 3.5%; according to AmSpec, exports decreased by 7.3%. The production in the first and middle of July increased by 6.19% month - on - month. [13] - Indonesia: In May, palm oil and refined product exports reached 2.86 million tons, a nearly 50% increase from the previous month. The production was 4.17 million tons, and the inventory decreased by 4.27% month - on - month to 2 million tons. [13] - India: From May 30, India halved the basic import tax of crude edible oils. In June and July, palm oil imports increased. [25] US Soybeans and Soybean Oil - CBOT soybeans oscillated weakly this week. The USDA reduced the 2025/26 US soybean production forecast by 5 million bushels to 4.335 billion bushels. [31] - As of July 20, the soybean flowering rate was 88%, the pod - setting rate was 28%, and the good - excellent rate was 68%. [36] South American Soybeans and Soybean Oil - Brazil: The 2025/26 production is expected to reach 175 million tons. In July, the estimated export volume is 12.11 million tons. [64] - Argentina: The 2024/25 production was estimated at 49.9 million tons. [64] Global Rapeseed and Rapeseed Oil - The 2024/25 global rapeseed supply tightened marginally. The 2025/26 USDA forecast shows a restorative increase in production, and the global rapeseed stock - to - use ratio will slightly rise to 10.64%. [73] - Canada: The 2025 rapeseed planting area is expected to be 21.46 million acres. The 2025/26 production is estimated to be 17.8 million tons. [78] Domestic Oils and Fats Market Review - This week, the three major domestic oils oscillated. The performance of soybean and palm oils was better than that of rapeseed oil. [93] Future Outlook - Palm oil: The tight supply pattern in Southeast Asia has eased. It is expected to enter a relatively slow inventory - building cycle. The p2509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [94] - Soybean oil: South American soybean export potential is expected to weaken in the third quarter. The y2509 contract is supported by CBOT soybeans. [95] - Rapeseed oil: The global rapeseed supply is tightening marginally. The 01509 contract is expected to oscillate strongly. [95] Supply and Demand - As of July 18, the total commercial inventory of the three major oils was 2.3602 million tons, an increase of 62,200 tons from last week, a rise of 2.71%. [125]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The policy of US biodiesel is favorable. The USDA June report shows that the expected ending inventory of US soybeans is 295 million bushels, and the production in Brazil and Argentina is 175 million tons and 48.5 million tons respectively. The MPOB report indicates that the production of Malaysian palm oil in June was 1.692 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4.5%, and the inventory was 2.03 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.4% [30]. - In the short term, palm oil hovers around the 9000 mark, and the expected fluctuation range next week is 8850 - 9200. In the medium - to - long term, the main contract of palm oil breaks through the upper limit of the previous shock range, and the center of gravity may rise, with an expected fluctuation range of 8600 - 9400 [32]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Domestic Three Major Oil Spot Price Trends - From July 18 to July 25, 2025, the futures closing price of palm oil (P2509) rose from 8964 to 9104, a weekly increase of 1.56%, and the spot price rose from 9048 to 9172, a weekly increase of 1.37%. The futures closing price of rapeseed oil (OI2509) decreased from 9586 to 9492, a weekly decrease of 0.98%, and the spot price decreased from 9692 to 9590, a weekly decrease of 1.05%. The futures closing price of soybean oil (Y2509) rose from 8160 to 8166, a weekly increase of 0.07%, and the spot price remained unchanged at 8414 [4]. Three Major Oil Basis Changes - As of July 24, 2025, the basis of soybean oil, rapeseed oil, and palm oil was 248 yuan/ton (an increase of 16 yuan/ton from the previous week), 98 yuan/ton (a decrease of 24 yuan/ton from the previous week), and 68 yuan/ton (a decrease of 30 yuan/ton from the previous week) respectively. As of July 25, 2025, the YP spread was - 794 yuan/ton (an increase of 12 yuan/ton from the previous week) [7]. Domestic Three Major Oil Inventory Trends - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of rapeseed oil in coastal areas decreased to 92,500 tons (a decrease of 400 tons from the previous week), the commercial inventory of palm oil in factories increased to 591,400 tons (an increase of 28,400 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybean oil in national oil mills increased to 1,091,800 tons (an increase of 42,400 tons from the previous week), and the total inventory of the three major oils increased to 1,775,700 tons (an increase of 70,400 tons from the previous week) [10]. Supply Side of Palm Oil - MPOB palm oil supply - demand data shows that the ending inventory of Malaysian palm oil in June increased by 2.4% to 2.03 million tons. In May 2025, the ending inventory of Indonesian palm oil decreased by 4.2% to 2.916 million tons [15]. Supply Side of Soybean Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the inventory of soybeans in national ports was 797,900 tons (a decrease of 25,200 tons from the previous week), the inventory of soybeans in major national oil mills was 642,240 tons (a decrease of 15,250 tons from the previous week), and the oil mill operating rate was 55% (a decrease of 4% from the previous week). As of July 24, 2025, the soybean crushing profit was - 721.20 yuan/ton (an increase of 25.95 yuan/ton from the previous week) [20]. Supply Side of Rapeseed Oil - As of July 18, 2025, the total inventory of rapeseed in oil mills was 20,000 tons (an increase of 5,000 tons from the previous week). As of July 25, 2025, the import rapeseed crushing profit was 255.60 yuan/ton (a decrease of 34.76 yuan/ton from the previous week) [23]. Demand Side - On July 24, 2025, the trading volume of palm oil in major oil mills was 866 tons, the trading volume of first - grade soybean oil was 35,000 tons, and the POGO spread was 364.24 US dollars/ton (an increase of 35 US dollars/ton from the previous week). The predicted annual total consumption of rapeseed oil is 8.65 million tons [29]. Strategy Recommendation - This week, the supply - demand data of Indonesia is favorable, but high - frequency data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil increases and exports decrease, and the expectation of inventory accumulation strengthens, with palm oil fluctuating at a high level. The consumption of Indonesian biodiesel this year has reached 7.42 million kiloliters, accounting for 47.5% of the 2025 quota. From July 1 - 20, the production of Malaysian palm oil increased by 6.19% month - on - month, and exports decreased by 3.5% month - on - month, increasing the expectation of inventory accumulation in July [31].