登录新浪财经APP 搜索【信披】查看更多考评等级 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露的内容真实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗 漏。 1.业绩预告期间：2025年1月1日至2025年12月31日 食品板块：休闲食品行业传统渠道受零食连锁门店低价策略，以及线上平台低价争夺客源等多方面冲 击，休闲食品市场面临渠道剧变、竞争加剧的行业态势，公司积极整合营销体系，深化与头部平台合 作，积极推进新品研发和推广，但是由于传统渠道下滑，新渠道增长不及预期，导致产品销量下降、毛 利率降低，利润同比减少。 一、本期业绩预计情况 2.预计的经营业绩：预计净利润为负值 ■ 二、与会计师事务所沟通情况 本期业绩预告的相关财务数据未经注册会计师审计。公司已就业绩预告有关事项与年审会计师事务所进 行了初步沟通，公司与会计师事务所在业绩预告方面不存在分歧。 三、业绩变动原因说明 报告期公司预计净利润为负值的主要原因是： 1.主营业务影响 油脂板块：报告期内，油脂行业原料进口依赖程度较强、同质化竞争激烈，原料价格易受主产国政策及 汇率波动的影响，成本管控存在挑战。公司积极把控市场行情、灵活调整销售节奏，完善风险管控体 系，不断 ...

南财智讯1月30日电，京粮控股发布2025年度业绩预告，预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的净利润 为亏损2.30亿元—3.20亿元；预计2025年全年归属于上市公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净利润为亏损 2.50亿元—3.40亿元。报告期公司预计净利润为负值的主要原因是：1.主营业务影响：油脂板块方面， 报告期内油脂行业原料进口依赖程度较强、同质化竞争激烈，原料价格易受主产国政策及汇率波动的影 响，成本管控存在挑战。公司积极把控市场行情、灵活调整销售节奏，完善风险管控体系，不断健全国 有资产监管体制，品牌营销与市场拓展持续发力。但是由于油脂加工原料进口大豆2025年主要来源于南 美，加之工厂开机受在港时间延长影响，油脂加工单吨固定成本增加。其次，2025年度南美大豆品质存 在稳定性差异，压榨得率、能耗、加工周期均受到影响，生产成本升高，利润同比减少。食品板块方 面：休闲食品行业传统渠道受零食连锁门店低价策略，以及线上平台低价争夺客源等多方面冲击，休闲 食品市场面临渠道剧变、竞争加剧的行业态势，公司积极整合营销体系，深化与头部平台合作，积极推 进新品研发和推广，但是由于传统渠道下滑，新渠道增长不及预期，导致产 ...

油脂观点 市场分析 期货方面，昨日收盘棕榈油2605合约9238.00元/吨，环比变化+146元，幅度+1.61%；昨日收盘豆油2605合约8258.00 元/吨，环比变化+32.00元，幅度+0.39%；昨日收盘菜油2605合约9326.00元/吨，环比变化-19.00元，幅度-0.20%。 现货方面，广东地区棕榈油现货价9130.00元/吨，环比变化+70.00元，幅度+0.77%，现货基差P05-108.00，环比变 化-76.00元；天津地区一级豆油现货价格8540.00元/吨，环比变化+20.00元/吨，幅度+0.23%，现货基差Y05+282.00， 环比变化-12.00元；江苏地区四级菜油现货价格10160.00元/吨，环比变化-20.00元，幅度-0.20%，现货基差 OI05+834.00，环比变化-1.00元。 近期市场咨询汇总：据外媒报道，得益于节日季前的补货需求，马来西亚棕榈油出口延续增势，为价格提供利多 支撑。船货检验机构ITS发布的数据显示，马来西亚1月1-25日棕榈油产品出口量为1163634吨，较上月同期出口的 1058112吨增加9.97%。独立检验公司AmSpec Agri ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives individual outlooks for different agricultural products: - Oils and fats: Bullish with oscillations [8] - Protein meal: Sideways movement [11] - Corn/starch: Sideways movement [14] - Hogs: Bearish with oscillations [16] - Natural rubber: Sideways movement within a range [20] - Synthetic rubber: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment [22] - Cotton: Bullish with oscillations [23] - Sugar: Bearish with oscillations [24] - Pulp: Bearish with oscillations [25] - Offset paper: Bearish with oscillations [27] - Logs: Sideways movement [28] 2. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes the supply, demand, and market trends of various agricultural products. It points out that the hog market is under pressure due to oversupply in the short - to - medium term but may improve in the second half of 2026. Oils and fats are supported by factors such as palm oil production decline and export increase. Protein meal is affected by overseas supply and domestic inventory. Corn and starch markets are in a tight balance. Other products also have their own supply - demand characteristics and market trends [16][8][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The overall trend of vegetable oils is bullish due to factors like the decline in Malaysian palm oil production and the increase in exports. The market is also affected by factors such as Trump's tariff remarks on canola and the expected bio - diesel policy in the US [8]. - **Logic**: In January 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased, while exports increased. The Canadian canola supply and demand situation has changed, and the US bio - diesel policy provides emotional support. The supply of soybeans and canola is relatively abundant, and palm oil is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend [8]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to consider buying hedging after a pullback and a long - palm oil short - canola oil arbitrage strategy [9]. 3.2 Protein Meal - **View**: Sideways movement. The international soybean trade premium has increased, and the domestic soybean and soybean meal inventories are relatively high [11]. - **Logic**: Brazil's soybean harvest progress is normal, while Argentina may face potential production reduction risks. The US soybean supply is expected to increase, and the net long position of US soybean funds has decreased. In China, the inventory reduction of oil mills is slow, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking provides some support, but the increase in the oil mill operating rate suppresses the upward movement of the price [11]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The soybean meal will continue to trade in a low - level range, and the canola meal is expected to move sideways [11]. 3.3 Corn/Starch - **View**: Sideways movement. The spot price is firm, and the futures price is adjusting [13]. - **Logic**: The supply in the upstream is slightly loose, but the overall situation is still tight. The selling pressure before the Spring Festival is not large, and the feed enterprises maintain a certain inventory. The deep - processing enterprises' inventory has increased, but the subsequent upward momentum is limited. The substitute grains and policy grains also affect the market [14]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is in a state with a ceiling and a floor in the short term [14]. 3.4 Hogs - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The upstream supply is sufficient, and the hog price continues to weaken [15]. - **Logic**: In the short term, the slaughter rhythm is slow at the beginning of the month and may accelerate at the end of the month. In the medium term, the supply will be in surplus until April 2026. In the long term, the sow capacity started to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand is shrinking, and the inventory has increased [16]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. There is a risk of concentrated inventory release before the Spring Festival, and the fundamentals will remain weak after the festival. It is recommended to consider short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The hog cycle is expected to bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026 [16]. 3.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: Sideways movement within a range. The price is affected by factors such as raw material prices and downstream demand [19]. - **Logic**: The natural rubber price has been oscillating at a high level. The overseas supply is relatively abundant, and the demand from tire enterprises before the festival provides some support, but the inventory is increasing rapidly. The short - term fundamental driving force is insufficient, but the rubber is supported by the bullish trend of the chemical sector [20]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. It is recommended to adopt a long - position strategy on pullbacks in the medium term, and the short - term price may return to a wide - range oscillation [20]. 3.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: There is a need for adjustment. The price of butadiene rubber has increased rapidly and needs to be adjusted [21]. - **Logic**: The BR futures price has fallen after a sharp rise. The overall chemical sector has seen a large outflow of funds, but the medium - term core logic of tight butadiene supply in the first half of 2026 remains unchanged. The price of butadiene has continued to rise, and the market sentiment is bullish [22]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations after adjustment. The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but short - term adjustment is needed [22]. 3.7 Cotton - **View**: Bullish with oscillations. The price is adjusting, and attention should be paid to the lower support [23]. - **Logic**: The cotton inspection is nearing completion, the cotton import has increased, and the downstream pre - holiday stocking has increased. The cotton fundamentals are healthy, but there is a lack of new positive factors in the short term. In the medium and long term, the cotton supply may be in a tight - balance situation, and the price is expected to rise [23]. - **Outlook**: Bullish with oscillations. It is recommended to buy on pullbacks [23]. 3.8 Sugar - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The sugar price is oscillating [24]. - **Logic**: The global raw sugar market is expected to have a surplus in the 2025/26 season, and the prices of domestic and international sugar have fallen to a relatively low level. The production in major producing countries is increasing, and the domestic supply is also increasing [24]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. It is recommended to short on rebounds [24]. 3.9 Pulp - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The broad - leaf pulp price is falling, and the pulp fundamentals are weak [25]. - **Logic**: The demand for pulp is decreasing due to the decline in downstream production. The broad - leaf pulp has weakened significantly, while the impact on coniferous pulp is relatively small. The import cost provides some support, but there are many negative factors such as seasonal demand decline and abundant inventory [25]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The pulp futures price is expected to move weakly in the short - term range [25]. 3.10 Offset Paper - **View**: Bearish with oscillations. The offset paper is trading in a range [27]. - **Logic**: The offset paper market is stable, but the supply pressure still exists. The downstream demand is weak, and the paper mills' price - increase efforts are difficult to pass on. The industry's operating rate is expected to decline, and the market trading volume is expected to decrease [27]. - **Outlook**: Bearish with oscillations. The spot price is expected to be stable before the Spring Festival, and the futures price will oscillate weakly in the range [27]. 3.11 Logs - **View**: Sideways movement. Attention should be paid to breaking through the upper pressure level [28]. - **Logic**: The log futures price has been oscillating around 770 - 780 yuan/cubic meter. The next pressure level is around 800 yuan/cubic meter. The negative factors in the market have been digested, and the spot price has increased, which may drive the market sentiment. The 03 contract can be traded in the range of 760 - 800 yuan/cubic meter [28]. - **Outlook**: Sideways movement. The market is expected to trade in a short - term range [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with increased volatility and many uncertainties, and the contradictions are not prominent. It is recommended that those without positions temporarily wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short. For rapeseed oil, a long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts is recommended, and for options, it is recommended to wait and see [9][10][11] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Data Analysis - **Spot Prices and Basis**: The closing prices of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil on the 2605 contract are 8258, 9238, and 9326 respectively. The basis of each variety in different regions is given, with some showing no change in the basis. For example, the basis of soybean oil in Zhangjiagang is 540 with no change [2] - **Monthly Spread**: The 5 - 9 monthly spreads of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 86, 74, and 61 respectively, with changes of - 2, 32, and - 29 [2] - **Cross - Variety Spread**: For the 05 contract, the Y - P spread is - 980 with a change of - 114, the OI - Y spread is 1068 with a change of - 51, and the OI - P spread is 88 with a change of - 165. The oil - meal ratio is 2.99 with a change of 0.01 [2] - **Import Profit**: The import profit of 24 - degree palm oil from Malaysia and Indonesia is - 130, and that of crude rapeseed oil from Rotterdam is - 976 [2] - **Weekly Commercial Inventory**: In the 4th week of 2026, the commercial inventories of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil are 95.6, 74.2, and 25.2 million tons respectively, showing different trends compared with last week and the same period last year [2] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: From January 1 - 25, 2026, Malaysia's palm oil exports are expected to be 746,745 tons, a 9.41% decrease compared with the same period last month [4] - **Domestic Market - Palm Oil**: The market has a strong bullish sentiment. The palm oil futures price fluctuated and closed up, rising more than 1%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of palm oil is 74.23 million tons, a 0.51% decrease from last week. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is stable and weak. It is expected that the de - stocking speed will be slow in the later stage [4] - **Domestic Market - Soybean Oil**: The soybean oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly up. Last week, the actual soybean crushing volume of oil mills was 2.1021 million tons, and the operating rate was 57.83%. As of January 23, 2026, the commercial inventory of soybean oil is 95.6 million tons, a 0.76% decrease from last week. The basis is stable. The inventory is expected to slightly decrease, but the supply is sufficient [5][7] - **Domestic Market - Rapeseed Oil**: The rapeseed oil futures price fluctuated and closed slightly down. Last week, the rapeseed crushing volume of major coastal oil mills was 0 tons, and the operating rate was 0%. As of January 23, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory is 25.2 million tons, a decrease of 2.3 million tons. The import profit is inverted, and the basis is supported. It is expected that the rapeseed oil will continue to de - stock, and the decline space of the near - month contract is limited [7] 3.3 Trading Strategy - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short - term oils and fats are fluctuating and rising, with many uncertainties. Those without positions are recommended to wait and not chase the high, and not rush to short [9] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: A long - short spread strategy for the 3 - 5 contracts of rapeseed oil is recommended [10] - **Option Strategy**: It is recommended to wait and see [11] 3.4 Related Attachments - The report provides 8 figures, including the spot basis of different oils and fats, monthly spreads, and cross - variety spreads from 2017 - 2026, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Bangcheng, and WIND [14][15][19]

Core Insights - The article discusses how agricultural and chemical enterprises in Northwest China are actively engaging in futures and derivatives markets to manage price risks, transforming from passive to proactive risk management strategies [1][6]. Group 1: Price Risk Management - Companies have historically relied on spot markets for pricing, leading to issues such as high procurement costs and reduced sales revenue due to information asymmetry and delayed market predictions [2][3]. - The introduction of futures markets has provided companies with forward-looking pricing references, enabling them to make informed decisions and stabilize operations [2][3]. Group 2: Case Studies of Successful Implementation - Shaanxi Agricultural Development Oil Group has successfully hedged against price fluctuations by participating in the futures market, achieving cost locking and risk diversification, which has enhanced operational stability and market competitiveness [3][4]. - Shaanxi Agricultural Supply Chain Management Group utilized futures to mitigate risks in corn trading, achieving a profit of 205 yuan per ton through strategic hedging [3][4]. Group 3: Innovations in Chemical Trade - Longchang Petrochemical Group has adopted a dual approach to risk management by utilizing both spot and futures markets, effectively reducing inventory exposure and optimizing costs [4][5]. - The introduction of a "secondary price lock" service by Longchang Petrochemical allows downstream clients to manage costs more effectively while maintaining supply stability [5]. Group 4: Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the successful application of futures tools, there are still challenges in the Northwest region, including a shortage of skilled professionals and resistance to new pricing models [6][7]. - The ongoing development of the Silk Road Economic Belt presents opportunities for companies to expand their procurement strategies internationally, particularly in managing currency and price risks [7]. Group 5: Future Directions - The shift from simple spot trading to integrated futures strategies reflects a broader trend towards high-quality development in China's economy, particularly in the agricultural and energy sectors [7]. - The experiences of agricultural and chemical enterprises in the Northwest provide valuable insights for future collaboration between industry and finance, indicating a path for enhanced risk management practices [7].

Report Title - Short-term oils and fats lack obvious drivers, and wide-range fluctuations are likely to continue [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Short-term oils and fats are expected to continue wide-range fluctuations without a clear trend [26] - Domestic soybean supply is currently sufficient, and soybean crushing is expected to pick up in the next two weeks. Domestic soybean oil is gradually de-stocking slightly, but overall inventory is not likely to be tight. There is no prominent contradiction in soybean oil at present [5][24] - Sino-Canadian rapeseed trade is expected to resume, and rapeseed supply is expected to increase. However, it will take time for Canadian rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports. Rapeseed oil is expected to continue de-stocking, and the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [5][24] - High-frequency data shows that Malaysian palm oil will reduce production and de-stock in January, and it is expected to continue to do so in the later stage, but the de-stocking speed is slow, and high inventory may continue [5][24] Summary by Directory Part 1: Weekly Core Points Analysis and Strategy Recommendations Recent Core Events & Market Review - SPPOMA data shows that the production of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of January decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month. ITS shows that the export volume in the same period was 950,000 tons, a 11.4% increase [5][8] - As of January 21, 2026, the sowing progress of Argentina's 2025/26 soybean has completed 96.2% of the planned area, a 2.3 percentage point increase from last week [5][11] - This week, oils and fats showed an overall fluctuating upward trend, mainly driven by factors such as the escalation of the Middle East geopolitical situation, the rise of crude oil due to the cold wave in the United States, and good expectations for U.S. biodiesel [5] International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: High-frequency data shows a 16.06% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January compared with the same period last month, and a 11.4% increase in exports. The inventory in January may drop to around 2.8 million tons, still at a relatively high level in the same period. UOB predicts a 13%-17% decrease in production in the first 20 days of January, similar to SPPOMA. The weather forecast shows increased rainfall in the southern Malay Peninsula in the next two weeks [8] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: The government revoked the operating licenses of 28 companies and will raise the palm oil LEVY tax from March 1, both of which will boost palm oil prices [8] - **South American Soybeans**: As of January 17, 2026, Brazil's 2025/26 soybean sowing rate was 98.6%, and the harvest progress was 2.3%. Some areas may be affected by continuous rainfall. As of January 21, Argentina's sowing progress reached 96.2%, but the northern agricultural region was affected by continuous rainfall [11] Domestic Market - **Palm Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 746,100 tons, a 1.37% increase from last week, at a slightly high level. The import profit inversion has narrowed, and there are rumors of near-month purchases. The basis is fluctuating weakly. Short-term palm oil lacks obvious drivers, and high inventory is expected to persist, but factors such as the low inventory in Indonesia, the upcoming tax increase, and accelerated exports will provide support. It is recommended to wait and see [14] - **Soybean Oil**: As of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory was 963,300 tons, a 6.03% decrease from last week, at a relatively high level in the same period. The basis is stable and slightly weak. The spot trading volume has improved, and the inventory is expected to continue to de-stock slightly. Short-term domestic soybean oil supply is sufficient, and it lacks obvious drivers, so it is expected to maintain a bottom-range fluctuation [19] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The coastal rapeseed crushing volume was 0 last week, and the inventory was exhausted. As of January 16, 2026, the coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 275,000 tons, a 24,000-ton increase, at a neutral level, and the inventory is continuously de-stocking. The European rapeseed oil FOB price is stable at around $1,030, and the import profit inversion has expanded to around -$1,300. There are rumors of domestic purchases of Canadian rapeseed, and short-term supply of tradable rapeseed oil is tight, supporting the basis. The expected increase in domestic rapeseed supply may lead to a weakening trend in rapeseed oil, but considering the time for rapeseed purchases to arrive at ports and the good biodiesel expectations, the decline space of near-month contracts may be limited [22] Strategy Recommendations - **Unilateral Strategy**: Short-term oils and fats may continue wide-range fluctuations without a trend [26] - **Arbitrage Strategy**: Wait and see [26] - **Option Strategy**: Wait and see [26] Part 2: Weekly Data Tracking International Market - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [31][32][33][35] - **Indonesian Palm Oil**: Includes monthly data on production, exports, and inventory [36][37][38][39] - **International Soybean Oil Market**: Covers NOPA U.S. soybean crushing volume, NOPA U.S. soybean oil monthly inventory, Brazilian soybean monthly crushing volume, Brazilian soybean oil monthly inventory, Argentine soybean monthly crushing volume, and Argentine soybean oil inventory [41][43][45][47] - **Indian Oils and Fats**: Covers monthly data on consumption, imports, port inventory, and imports of different types of oils [49][50][51][52][54][56][58][59] Domestic Market - **Import Profits**: Includes domestic rapeseed oil and 24-degree palm oil import profits [62][63][64][66] - **Supply and Demand of Different Oils**: Covers data on supply and demand, including crushing volume, consumption, trading volume, and inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, and rapeseed oil [66][68][70] - **Spot Basis**: Includes the spot basis of first-grade soybean oil, 24-degree palm oil, and domestic triple-rapeseed oil [73] - **Commercial Inventory**: Includes data on the commercial inventory of soybean oil, palm oil, rapeseed oil, and total oils and fats [77][78][79][80][82][83][84]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The palm oil market is expected to be volatile and bullish in the short term. The domestic palm oil is relatively strong due to the contraction of Malaysian palm oil production, continuous improvement in exports, the ongoing rectification of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the upcoming release of the US biodiesel policy. The rapeseed oil is relatively weak because the import of Canadian rapeseed by China is expected to resume in March, increasing the supply in the long - term. [3][7][9] 3. Summary by Directory Market Data - CBOT soybean oil main contract rose 1.42 to 53.93 cents per pound, a 2.70% increase; BMD Malaysian palm oil main contract rose 103 to 4174 ringgit per ton, a 2.53% increase; DCE palm oil rose 236 to 8910 yuan per ton, a 2.72% increase; DCE soybean oil rose 78 to 8094 yuan per ton, a 0.97% increase; CZCE rapeseed oil fell 72 to 8991 yuan per ton, a 0.79% decrease. The spot price of 24 - degree palm oil in Guangzhou rose 230 to 8930 yuan per ton, a 2.64% increase; the spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Rizhao rose 70 to 8450 yuan per ton, an 0.84% increase; the spot price of imported third - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu Zhangjiagang fell 100 to 9750 yuan per ton, a 1.02% decrease. [3][4] Market Analysis and Outlook - The oil and fat sector is oscillating strongly. The domestic palm oil is strong because of the contraction of Malaysian palm oil production, continuous improvement in exports, the rectification of illegal plantations in Indonesia, and the upcoming release of the US biodiesel policy. The rapeseed oil is weak due to the expected resumption of Canadian rapeseed imports by China in March. From January 1 - 20, 2026, Malaysian palm oil production decreased by 16.06% compared with the same period last month, and export data showed mixed trends. As of January 16, 2026, the total inventory of the three major oils decreased by 2.92 million tons compared with the previous week. The daily average trading volume of soybean oil and palm oil increased. [7][8][9] Industry News - MBSB predicts that the palm oil production in 2026 will increase moderately by 1.0%, but the export volume will remain at a low level of 15.1 million tons, with the ending inventory remaining high at 3.18 million tons. The palm oil price in 2026 is expected to be 4200 - 4250 ringgit per ton, with a moderate increase in the second half of the year. MPOC believes that the crude palm oil price in February will be in the range of 4000 - 4300 ringgit per ton, and the global palm oil import demand is expected to increase in the near future and may exceed that of soybean oil in Q1 2026. [10] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil futures and spot prices, as well as the production, inventory, and export volume of Malaysian and Indonesian palm oil, and the commercial inventory of domestic three major oils. [11][13][15]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - The agricultural market shows a complex situation with different trends for various products. In the short - term, many products are expected to be in a state of shock, while in the long - term, the pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. - Overall, the supply of oilseeds (soybeans and rapeseeds) is relatively abundant, and the annual output of palm oil is high. Although it is about to enter the production - reduction season with a de - stocking trend, the overall situation of the oil market is complex[7]. - The protein meal market is affected by factors such as international soybean supply and domestic demand, and is expected to be in a state of shock[8]. - The corn market is in a state of tight balance, and the price is expected to be in a high - level shock in the short - term[9]. - The rubber market (both natural and synthetic) is expected to be in a state of shock, with different influencing factors[13][16]. - The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and gradually strengthen in the medium - to - long - term, while the sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[17][18]. - The pulp and double - gum paper markets are expected to be in a state of shock and weaken, and the log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[19][22][23]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1.行情观点 3.1.1. 油脂 - **观点**: Export expectations drive the rebound of palm oil. The price of palm oil is strong, driving up the prices of soybean and rapeseed oils slightly. The supply of soybeans and rapeseeds is relatively abundant, and the future supply expectations of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil are different[7]. - **Logic**: For palm oil, the market expects good export data in Malaysia from January 1 - 20, but the domestic spot inventory is increasing, and the pre - holiday stocking sentiment is insufficient. For soybean oil, the global soybean production and inventory are expected to increase, and the domestic market's acceptance of high prices is decreasing. For rapeseed oil, future supply expectations are turning loose, but the spot is still tight, and the near - end basis is relatively strong[7]. - **Outlook**: Soybean oil is expected to be in a state of shock, palm oil in a state of shock, and rapeseed oil in a state of shock and weaken[7]. 3.1.2. 蛋白粕 - **观点**: Terminal stocking and point - pricing drive the rebound of double - meal prices at low levels[8]. - **Logic**: Internationally, the sowing of Argentine soybeans is nearly finished, and the US soybean demand is supported. The supply of overseas soybeans is expected to increase. Domestically, the low prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal attract downstream stocking, but the adjustment of tariffs on Canadian rapeseed has a slight negative impact[8]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans, Dalian soybean meal, and rapeseed meal are all expected to be in a state of shock. Rapeseed meal is expected to be weaker than soybean meal[8]. 3.1.3. 玉米及淀粉 - **观点**: Corn is in a state of range - bound shock[8]. - **Logic**: The current fundamentals are in a tight balance. The upstream is reluctant to sell, and the logistics is affected by snow. The downstream feed enterprises have sufficient inventory, and the deep - processing enterprises' pre - holiday stocking has a certain impact on prices. Policy grain auctions also affect the price[9]. - **Outlook**: Corn is expected to be in a state of shock[9]. 3.1.4. 生猪 - **观点**: Slaughterhouses' procurement slows down, and the spot and futures prices of live pigs decline[10]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, the early - January slaughter progress is slow, and secondary fattening has re - entered in some areas. In the medium - term, the supply surplus pressure will last until April 2026. In the long - term, the sow capacity began to decline in the third quarter of 2025, and the supply pressure is expected to ease after May 2026. The demand shows a slight weekly increase in slaughter volume, and there is a slight inventory accumulation[11]. - **Outlook**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be in a state of shock. The industry is advised to focus on short - selling hedging opportunities in the first half of the year. The pig cycle is expected to gradually bottom out and recover in the second half of 2026[11]. 3.1.5. 沪胶与20号胶 - **观点**: The natural rubber market is in a state of wide - range shock[12]. - **Logic**: Affected by the overall commodity adjustment trend, the rubber price is in a narrow - range shock, and the fundamentals have not changed much. It is mainly driven by macro factors. The overseas supply is increasing seasonally, and the raw material price is firm, but the downstream buying is weak after the price increase[13]. - **Outlook**: The natural rubber market is expected to be in a state of shock[13]. 3.1.6. 合成橡胶 - **观点**: The price is in a state of correction and adjustment, and the market is in a state of shock[16]. - **Logic**: After the previous price increase, there is no further upward momentum, but the downside space is limited. The mid - term bullish logic remains unchanged, mainly based on the expected improvement of butadiene fundamentals. The price of butadiene has been rising recently[16]. - **Outlook**: The butadiene supply - demand pattern is expected to improve, but there is still pressure in the short - term. It is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen in the medium - term[16]. 3.1.7. 棉花 - **观点**: The price continues to adjust, and attention should be paid to the lower support[17]. - **Logic**: In the short - term, due to the exhaustion of short - term benefits and the decline in positions, the cotton price has stopped rising. The fundamentals are generally good, but the increase in cotton yarn imports is a marginal negative factor. In the medium - to - long - term, the cotton price is expected to rise based on the expected tight supply and the reduction of cotton - planting area in Xinjiang[17]. - **Outlook**: The cotton market is expected to be in a state of shock and strengthen[17]. 3.1.8. 白糖 - **观点**: The sugar price is under pressure and closes down[18]. - **Logic**: Globally, the sugar market is expected to have a supply surplus in the 25/26 season, and both domestic and international prices are under pressure. In the domestic market, the supply is increasing, and the sugar price is expected to be under pressure during the northern hemisphere's listing period[18]. - **Outlook**: The sugar market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[18]. 3.1.9. 纸浆 - **观点**: The price of broad - leaf pulp continues to weaken, and the fundamentals have more concerns[19]. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of pulp have not changed much, with both positive and negative factors. The positive factors include the increase in import costs and the relatively low price difference between needle and broad - leaf pulp. The negative factors include the seasonal decline in demand, abundant supply in the spot market, and the weakening of the broad - leaf pulp price[19]. - **Outlook**: The pulp market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[19]. 3.1.10. 双胶纸 - **观点**: There are no major contradictions, and the price is in a low - level shock[20]. - **Logic**: The market is in a low - level shock, with stable production by large - scale paper enterprises and rational stocking by dealers. The demand is weak, and the price increase is difficult to pass on to the downstream[22]. - **Outlook**: The double - gum paper market is expected to be in a state of shock and weaken[22]. 3.1.11. 原木 - **观点**: The price of the log futures contract continues to decline, and the valuation has entered a deep - water area[23]. - **Logic**: The log futures contract has declined with increasing positions, and the short - term is dominated by bears. The valuation has entered a low - value area, and the downward space is relatively limited. The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and the delivery situation has changed. The spot price in the Jiangsu market is rising due to tight supply[23]. - **Outlook**: The log market is expected to operate in a short - term range[23]. 3.2. 品种数据监测 No specific data analysis or summary content is provided in the given text. 3.3. 中信期货商品指数 - On January 20, 2026, the comprehensive index of commodities was 2414.16, a decrease of 0.15%; the commodity 20 index was 2773.48, a decrease of 0.23%; the industrial products index was 2308.47, a decrease of 0.34%[184]. - The agricultural product index on January 20, 2026, was 934.25, with a daily decline of 0.02%, a decline of 1.15% in the past 5 days, an increase of 2.39% in the past month, and an increase of 0.13% since the beginning of the year[186].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The domestic oil market is constrained by high supply pressure and weak demand, lacking positive factors, with the core driver still in the external market of the origin. The market is expected to remain in a wide - range oscillation, awaiting the boost from the final US energy policy. It's advisable to adopt a slightly bullish view in the oscillation, and pay attention to the decline opportunities of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads due to the weakening support for rapeseed oil [1][2]. - In the short term, the oil market shows a Back structure with near - term strength and long - term weakness. The price difference of palm oil P5 - 9 oscillates, the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises, and the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - The pogo spread of palm oil decreases slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remains high. The BOHO spread of soybean oil weakens, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 3.1.1 Core Contradictions - There is a game between inventory pressure and demand growth in palm oil production areas. Malaysia is in the production - reduction season, but the inventory is at a seven - year high. The B50 plan in Indonesia will not be implemented in 2026, and the expansion of the palm oil bio - fuel demand is limited. The price has support, but there is a lack of trend - driving force, waiting for the price boost from India's Ramadan stocking demand [1]. - The latest news on the US biodiesel policy indicates that the existing proposal will be maintained, with the blending requirement for 2026 reaching 5.61 billion gallons and the import raw material penalty limit being cancelled, which is beneficial to the global oil market and Canadian rapeseed. The final result is expected to be announced in March [1]. - The Canada - China talks are currently optimistic. The import tax on Canadian rapeseed is expected to remain at 15%. Coupled with the global rapeseed harvest, the support for rapeseed oil weakens [1]. - Although the inventory of the three major domestic oils has declined, the overall supply is still sufficient, lacking upward momentum. Soybean oil is being destocked due to its high cost - effectiveness, but the supply pressure is still higher than that of last year. The supply gap is not obvious, but the arrival of oilseeds in the first quarter is limited, and attention should be paid to the customs clearance progress and policies [2]. 3.1.2 Trading - Type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: There is a short - term rebound trend within the range, and there is still room for upward movement in palm oil in the medium term [15]. - **Price Range**: The oscillation range of P2605 is [8200 - 8900], Y2605 is [7600 - 8100], and OI2605 is [8600 - 9500] [15]. - **Technical Analysis**: Treat the unilateral trends of P05 and Y05 as rebounds within the range, and pay attention to whether the upper pressure levels can be broken. For arbitrage, observe the weakening trend of the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean price spreads [15]. - **Basis, Calendar Spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: Adopt a short - term weak - oscillation view for the current basis; there is no recommendation for the calendar spread strategy; expect the rapeseed - palm and rapeseed - soybean spreads to weaken [16]. 3.1.3 Industrial Customer Operation Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range of soybean oil is 7600 - 8100, rapeseed oil is 8600 - 9500, and palm oil is 8200 - 8800 [19]. - **Hedging Strategy**: Traders with high oil inventories can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits; refiners with low inventory can buy soybean oil futures to lock in procurement costs; oil mills worried about excessive soybean imports and low soybean oil sales prices can short soybean oil futures to lock in profits [19]. 3.1.4 Basic Data Overview - Provides the latest prices, price changes, and spreads of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil in the futures and spot markets, as well as the price differences between months and varieties [20][21][22]. 3.2 This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Attention Events 3.2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: The estimated palm oil exports from Malaysia from January 1 - 15 increased by 20.5% compared to the same period last month; as of January 16, 2026, the commercial inventory of the three major domestic oils decreased slightly [23]. - **Negative Information**: The soybean crushing volume of domestic major oil mills increased last week, and it is expected to continue to rise this week; a Chinese importer purchased a ship of Canadian rapeseed, which may weaken Australia's sales; the predicted palm oil production in Malaysia for the 2025/26 season is increased; the predicted soybean exports in Brazil in 2026 will decrease, but the total supply will increase [24]. - **Spot Transaction Information**: Recent oil transactions remained weak. Soybean oil transactions were relatively high with an obvious year - on - year increase, palm oil had sporadic transactions, and rapeseed oil had no transactions for the time being [25]. 3.2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Follow - Domestic high - frequency weekly inventory data; high - frequency production and high - frequency export data of Malaysian palm oil; origin weather information [35]. 3.3 Disk Interpretation 3.3.1 Price - Volume and Capital Interpretation - **Domestic Market**: The oil market was divided this week. Soybean oil and palm oil oscillated strongly, while rapeseed oil was affected by the Canada - China talks, rising and then falling back, and then oscillating. There is a lack of trend - driving force for upward movement, and attention should be paid to the US bio - energy policy and the de - stocking progress in the origin. The changes in the key profitable seats of palm oil, soybean oil, and rapeseed oil were generally small. Some seats slightly increased short positions in rapeseed oil and soybean oil, and reduced short positions in palm oil [34]. - **Calendar Spread Structure**: The oil market still shows a Back structure. The Back structure of palm oil is relatively steep, and the P5 - 9 price difference oscillates; the Y5 - 9 price difference of soybean oil rises; the OI5 - 9 price difference of rapeseed oil is mainly in consolidation [37]. - **Basis Structure**: The basis of the main oil contracts continued to bottom out and consolidate this week. The basis of soybean and palm oil continued to operate weakly, while the basis of rapeseed oil fluctuated more obviously but gradually weakened with the improvement of the Canada - China relationship [42]. - **Cross - Variety Spread**: This week, the cross - variety spread oscillated mainly. As palm oil enters the production - reduction season and starts to de - stock, and the import window of Canadian rapeseed opens, the rapeseed - palm spread is still expected to weaken [46]. - **Foreign Market**: The foreign market rebounded this week. Palm oil became more optimistic due to Malaysia's production - reduction season, better - than - expected exports, and signs of drought. Crude oil strengthened due to geopolitical conflicts, driving US soybean oil to oscillate strongly, and the cost - effectiveness of international palm oil also improved slightly. The net long - position ratio of managed funds decreased, and the commercial short - position ratio was high, limiting the upward space of prices [48][50]. 3.4 Valuation and Profit Analysis 3.4.1 Upstream and Downstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The pogo spread of palm oil decreased slightly, and the cost of palm oil for bio - fuel remained high, requiring government subsidies for the Southeast Asian bio - fuel policy. The BOHO spread of soybean oil continued to weaken, but it is expected to strengthen gradually, and the global soybean oil price has room for upward repair [52]. 3.4.2 Import and Export Profit Tracking - The origin's price quotation is firm, and domestic demand is mainly for rigid needs. The import profit of palm oil remains negative, which restricts long - term ship purchases [55]. 3.5 Supply - Demand and Inventory Deduction 3.5.1 Origin Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Deduction - In December, Malaysia's palm oil production decreased by 5.46% month - on - month, exports increased by 8.52% month - on - month, and the ending inventory increased by 7.58% month - on - month. The domestic consumption demand decreased. Although the supply pressure is still large, the better - than - expected exports are expected to promote the de - stocking process. The latest high - frequency data shows that the production in January decreased month - on - month, exports improved, and the inventory inflection point may appear in January [57]. 3.5.2 Supply - Side and Deduction - **Palm Oil**: In the off - season of demand, transactions are difficult to improve. The origin is in the production - reduction stage, and the willingness to sell is limited. The import profit is inverted, and ship purchases are expected to remain low, waiting for a rebound after the inventory pressure in the origin eases [59]. - **Soybean Oil**: In the first quarter, the arrival of soybeans is at a seasonal low, and the crushing volume decreases. However, the current inventory pressure is large, and the overall supply is still relatively loose. Attention should be paid to the possible short - term supply shortage caused by the arrival rhythm [59]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: The downstream demand is limited. Although Australian rapeseed is arriving, the quantity is limited, and the inventory continues to be destocked. The spot supply remains tight, but the global rapeseed harvest and the resumption of Canada - China trade may increase the domestic rapeseed oil supply in the future [59]. 3.5.3 Demand - Side and Deduction - The inventory of the three major oils is still high year - on - year, and the downstream demand is sluggish. After the Spring Festival stocking, the market boost is limited, and the overall terminal demand for oils remains weak [61].