Core Viewpoint - The construction materials and new materials industry is expected to maintain high investment attractiveness in 2025, despite continued pressure from traditional domestic demand in real estate and infrastructure [2]. Group 1: Cement Industry - Cement demand is projected to be under pressure, with structural adjustments expected. The anticipated demand distribution for 2025 is 30% from real estate, 50% from infrastructure, and 20% from rural areas [2][3]. - The industry is expected to experience a low point around April-May 2024, with a gradual improvement in supply-demand relationships as supply exits in an orderly manner [2][3]. Group 2: Glass Fiber Industry - The glass fiber sector is expected to benefit from the release of profits in AI electronic cloth by 2026, with a focus on high-end fabric price elasticity [3]. - The industry has undergone domestic substitution, establishing China as a global supplier, making both domestic and international demand crucial [3]. Group 3: Glass Industry - The glass sector is facing demand pressure and a slowdown in cold repairs, with a net reduction of approximately 4,000 tons per day as of December 21, 2025, which is a deceleration compared to 2024 [4]. - The overall glass prices are under pressure due to weak downstream demand, with a projected decline in construction completions by 18% year-on-year from January to November 2025 [4]. Group 4: Consumer Building Materials - The consumer building materials sector has shown signs of stabilization since Q3 2025, with narrowing revenue declines and reduced price competition, indicating that the most challenging phase has passed [5]. - Despite ongoing pressures in new housing demand, the release of second-hand housing and renovation projects is expected to provide strong support, leading to structural opportunities [5].

Group 1 - The article discusses the upcoming 2026 Future Industry New Materials Expo, which will focus on common needs in future industries such as robotics, automotive, drones, data centers, aerospace, AI, and new energy [1] - International Composite Material has announced a project to build a production line for high-frequency and high-speed electronic fiber cloth with an estimated total investment of 1.693 billion yuan, aimed at enhancing the company's competitiveness in high-end manufacturing [2] - The company has successfully launched an 85,000-ton electronic-grade glass fiber production line, with products certified for 5G low dielectric glass fiber and successful integration into leading supply chains [2] Group 2 - The report from CITIC Securities indicates that the demand for orthogonal backplanes and upgrades in Cowop technology will lead to PCB becoming more similar to semiconductors, resulting in a steady increase in value [3] - Domestic PCB companies are gaining global market share, which is driving the localization of upstream supply chains, including high-end resins, glass fiber cloth, and copper foil [3] - The article highlights the importance of optimizing production capacity and cost control in response to industry demand differentiation and price pressures in the terminal market [2]

证券研究报告：建筑材料|行业周报 行业相对指数表现 -10% -7% -4% -1% 2% 5% 8% 11% 14% 17% 20% 2024-12 2025-03 2025-05 2025-08 2025-10 2025-12 建筑材料 沪深300 发布时间：2025-12-29 行业投资评级 强于大市|维持 | 行业基本情况 | | | --- | --- | | 收盘点位 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最高 | 5449.43 | | 52 周最低 | 4167.51 | 资料来源：聚源，中邮证券研究所 研究所 分析师:赵洋 SAC 登记编号:S1340524050002 Email:zhaoyang@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《关注内需低位品种，有望迎来估值与 业绩双重修复》 - 2025.12.22 建材行业报告 （2025.12.22-2025.12.26） 地产政策托底需求，关注反内卷落地情况 投资要点 12 月 24 日，北京市住房城乡建设委、市发展改革委、人民银行 北京市分行、北京住房公积金管理中心等 4 部门联合印发《关于进一 步优化调整本市房地产相关政策的通知》，放宽非 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the building materials industry [1] Core Viewpoints - The real estate chain is gradually clarifying its bottom, with expectations for a performance turning point in 2026 after clearing burdens from 2025 [3][4] - The building materials sector has shown a weekly increase of 4.56%, outperforming the CSI 300 and Wind All A indices by 2.61% and 1.78%, respectively [3] - The report highlights the stability in cement prices, with the national average price at 354.0 RMB/ton, unchanged from the previous week but down 62.2 RMB/ton year-on-year [3][10] - Glass prices have decreased, with the average price for float glass at 1140.1 RMB/ton, down 11.3 RMB/ton from the previous week and down 260.7 RMB/ton year-on-year [41][46] - The fiberglass market is expected to see stable growth in demand, particularly in wind power and thermoplastics, with effective capacity projected to reach 759.2 million tons in 2026, a year-on-year increase of 6.9% [4][6] Summary by Sections 1. Cement Market Overview - The national cement market price remains stable at 354.0 RMB/ton, with regional variations noted [10][11] - The average cement inventory ratio is 61.8%, reflecting a slight decrease from the previous week [18][20] - The report anticipates a rebound in cement prices if physical demand stabilizes, particularly in provinces with significant infrastructure projects [4][9] 2. Glass Market Overview - The float glass market is experiencing a slight decline in prices, with an average price of 1140.1 RMB/ton [41] - Inventory levels have increased, with a total of 5533 million weight boxes reported, indicating a need for inventory reduction [46] - The report suggests that the glass industry may face challenges in the short term due to high inventory levels and weak demand [4][41] 3. Fiberglass Market Overview - The fiberglass industry is expected to see a gradual recovery, with demand driven by new applications and stable growth in traditional sectors [4] - Effective capacity for fiberglass is projected to increase, supporting a positive outlook for leading companies in the sector [4][6] - The report recommends companies such as China Jushi and suggests attention to other players like Zhongcai Technology and Honghe Technology [4]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes three main investment themes in the building materials industry: the stock chain, the Africa chain, and the AI chain. The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply varieties, with a significant shift in consumer demand expected as renovation needs rise to nearly 70% by 2030 [4][7][26] - The Africa chain highlights the undervalued potential of leading companies in the African market, benefiting from population growth and urbanization, with a projected threefold market expansion for cement [9][10] - The AI chain anticipates an upgrade in the special electronic cloth industry, driven by the transition from Low-Dk to higher-grade products, indicating substantial domestic replacement opportunities due to supply shortages [10][10] Group 2 - The stock chain indicates that the renovation demand is currently around 50% and is expected to reach nearly 70% by 2030, which will drive the industry back to historical demand levels [7][26][28] - The report notes that the supply of consumer building materials is expected to exit significantly, with production levels for various materials projected to be at 90% to 62% of their peak by 2024 [7][37] - The report identifies companies like Huaxin Cement and West Cement as key players in the African market, which is expected to see high demand due to ongoing urbanization and infrastructure development [9][10] Group 3 - The report suggests that the renovation market could reach 20 billion square meters annually, driven by a shorter renovation cycle and an increase in the aging housing stock [28][31] - The report highlights that leading companies in the consumer building materials sector are expected to show revenue and profit resilience, with some companies already demonstrating growth despite industry downturns [8][41] - The report indicates that the waterproof and coating sectors are under significant pressure, with the waterproof materials market expected to see a notable decline in production by 2024 [45][58]

Core Viewpoint - The construction materials industry is expected to see improved profitability and demand in 2025, driven by "anti-involution" policies and a gradual recovery in key product demand [1][2]. Fundamental Analysis - In the first three quarters of 2025, demand for major construction materials showed slight improvement, while "anti-involution" policies positively impacted supply-side dynamics, leading to improved profitability across various sub-sectors [2]. - The construction materials index rose by 20.8% from January 2 to December 23, 2025, ranking 11th among all sectors, while the CSI 300 index increased by 17.43% during the same period [1][2]. Real Estate and Infrastructure - The real estate market continues to stabilize, with a downward trend in sales and completion rates, alongside declining housing prices; however, inventory reduction is evident as the area of unsold commercial housing has been decreasing since early 2025 [2]. - Infrastructure investment growth is declining despite an increase in the scale of special bonds directed towards land reserves [2]. Investment Recommendations - Focus on two main lines: 1. "Anti-involution" policies are expected to alleviate overcapacity issues in the construction materials sector, with an emphasis on traditional materials [2]. 2. The demand for high-end fiberglass products is anticipated to enhance industry profitability [2]. Sector-Specific Insights - **Cement**: The ongoing "anti-involution" policies are expected to ease overcapacity in the cement industry, with a long-term improvement in supply-demand dynamics anticipated to boost profitability, particularly for leading companies like Conch Cement [3]. - **Float Glass**: Demand remains weak, but supply-side changes from "anti-involution" policies may improve the supply-demand balance; companies like Xinyi Glass are recommended for attention [3]. - **Photovoltaic Glass**: The industry is currently facing overcapacity, but leading companies with cost advantages are likely to benefit from improved supply-demand conditions as "anti-involution" policies are implemented [3]. - **Consumer Building Materials**: The increasing proportion of aging housing is expected to drive demand for renovation-related building materials, with companies like Skshu Paint and Beixin Building Materials highlighted for potential investment [3]. Fiberglass Sector - The "anti-involution" policies are expected to prevent redundant capacity and curb vicious price competition in the fiberglass sector, with rising demand for mid-to-high-end fiberglass products likely to enhance profitability; companies such as China Jushi and Zhongcai Technology are recommended for investment [4].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" and maintained [12] Core Viewpoints - Real estate data continues to show weakness, with a focus on potential policy expectations in the future [6] - Cement shipments are experiencing seasonal declines, and glass prices are decreasing month-on-month [8] - For 2026, three main lines of focus are identified: stock chain, Africa chain, and AI chain [9] Summary by Relevant Sections Real Estate and Construction Data - From January to November, the sales of commercial housing decreased by 11.1% and the sales area by 7.8% year-on-year. In November alone, the sales value and area dropped by 25.1% and 17.3% respectively. The weak performance is attributed to a high base effect from last year's policy releases and weak actual demand [6][7] - New construction and completion data are also weak, with new housing starts down by 20.5% and completions down by 18.0% year-on-year from January to November [7] Cement and Glass Market - In December, cement demand weakened due to air pollution warnings, with an average shipment rate of 42% across key regions, down 1.7 percentage points month-on-month and 2.3 percentage points year-on-year. The average price of cement decreased by 0.2% month-on-month [8][25] - The domestic float glass market is seeing a downward price trend, with production capacity stable at 265 lines and daily melting capacity at 155,105 tons. Inventory levels are also being monitored closely [37][40] Future Outlook for 2026 - The stock chain focuses on optimizing demand and clearing supply, with a significant shift towards renovation demand expected to rise from 50% to nearly 70% by 2030. Recommended companies include Sanke Tree and Rabbit Baby [9] - The Africa chain highlights undervalued growth opportunities in the African market, with recommendations for companies like Keda Manufacturing and Huaxin Cement [9] - The AI chain emphasizes the upgrade of special electronic fabrics, with a focus on domestic leaders like Zhongcai Technology [9]

Market Overview - The market experienced a high and then a pullback, with the three major indices showing slight increases. The lithium battery industry chain saw significant gains, with companies like Tianji Co. and Duofluo reaching their daily limit. The Hainan sector continued its strong performance, with Hainan Development and Haikou Group achieving three consecutive limits. The liquid cooling server concept was active, with companies like Chuanrun and Yingweike hitting their daily limits. Conversely, the commercial aerospace concept declined, with Shunhao Co. hitting its limit down and others like Jiuzhiyang and Tianyin falling over 10%. Overall, more stocks declined than rose, with over 3,800 stocks in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets showing red, and today's trading volume reached 1.92 trillion yuan [1]. Lithium Battery Sector - The lithium battery sector surged today, with Tianji Co., Binhai Energy, Shenzhen New Star, and Duofluo all hitting their daily limits. On December 23, the main contract for lithium carbonate on the Guangqi Exchange rose over 5%, exceeding 120,000 yuan per ton. The price of lithium carbonate futures has increased by over 90% from the year's low of 59,000 yuan per ton. Additionally, there are reports that BYD is negotiating with upstream material suppliers [4][5]. - Dongguan Securities noted that the new energy vehicle market is in a year-end surge period, with tax exemption policies in effect. November sales reached new highs, and demand for energy storage remains strong, keeping overall demand for lithium batteries robust. The lithium battery industry chain is expected to see a slight increase in production in December, maintaining a favorable industry outlook [4][6]. Liquid Cooling Server Sector - The liquid cooling server concept saw another significant rise, with Jitai Co., Tongfei Co., and Chuanrun Co. all hitting their daily limits, while Yingweike and Yidong Electronics reached new historical highs. According to Guosheng Securities, the first development phase of the liquid cooling industry is expected to occur in 2024 and the first half of 2025, with the second phase marked by performance realization. High-power cabinets exceeding 100kW are becoming the new norm, with NVIDIA's GB200/GB300 series adopting full liquid cooling architecture [7][9]. - New generation ASIC accelerators are transitioning from air cooling to liquid cooling, with companies like Amazon Cloud and Meta planning to adopt liquid cooling solutions starting in 2026. The application boundaries of liquid cooling are expanding from GPU servers to switches and ASIC devices, warranting a systematic reassessment of market space [9]. Glass Fiber Sector - The glass fiber concept also saw a significant rise, with companies like Jiuding New Materials and Honghe Technology hitting their daily limits, and Dongcai Technology reaching a historical high. According to Zhuochuang Information, prices for glass fiber electronic cloth products increased slightly in early December, with thick cloth prices rising by 0.2 yuan per square meter and thin cloth prices increasing by 0.3-0.5 yuan per square meter. The traditional electronic cloth market is experiencing upward price momentum due to limited supply growth over the past few years and increased demand from AI applications [10][11].

Group 1 - A-shares saw 53 stocks hitting the daily limit up and 9 stocks hitting the limit down on December 23 [1] - The non-ferrous and tungsten sector was active, with Zhangyuan Tungsten and Xianglu Tungsten hitting the limit up [1] - The fiberglass sector strengthened, with Honghe Technology and Jiuding New Materials also hitting the limit up [1] Group 2 - Stocks with consecutive limit down included Bohai Chemical and China High-Tech, both experiencing two consecutive days of limit down [2] - ST Bailin and Hengsheng Energy also faced limit down [2]

中金研究 展望2026年，我们以需求作为推演行业格局和企业竞争策略的出发点，辅以考虑当前盈利、龙头多业态发展成效，推荐顺序 ： 玻纤、消费 建材、玻璃、水泥 。 我们推荐以下三 条主线：①景气度延续，龙头维系固有优势，保持量、价稳中有增的板块，如玻纤（包括特种电子 布）、非洲建材；②需求有存量重装和多元化加持，能部分对冲新建需求下行风险，依托温和价格策略释放盈利压力的板块，如消费建 材；③需求偏向同质化且仍面临压力，但靠产能收缩或"反内卷"政策推动供给出清的大宗品，如浮法玻璃、水泥。 玻纤：结构升级拉开盈利差距，特种布延续高景气。 我们预期2026年粗纱行业净增产量40-50万吨，或维系良好的供需格局，高端粗纱如风电 有望迎接年度提价；普通粗纱和电子布或阶段性提价（关注3-4月、8-9月）。AI特种布我们判断二代布量价齐增的空间更大，其次看好低膨胀 纱和石英布。 消费建材：大浪淘沙，关注胜者盈利修复。 由于2026年新开工（同比-16%）、竣工（同比-7%）未见底，叠加小B需求待资金发力，需求仍直 面压力。但行业沉寂已久，积极信号渐近，包括①防水/涂料/石膏板迎来阶段性提价；②费用率或继续压降；③减值风险边际 ...