Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the significant role of the service industry in China's economic development, highlighting its contribution to GDP and the importance of high-quality development [1][3] - The service industry's added value increased from 24.5 trillion yuan in 2012 to 76.6 trillion yuan in 2024, with a contribution rate of 60.7% to national economic growth in the first three quarters of this year [1] - The development of the service industry is supported by a continuously improving policy framework, with innovations in AI, humanoid robots, and quantum communication driving rapid growth [1] Group 2 - Current challenges in the service industry include insufficient supply in high-end R&D, technology consulting, and intellectual property services, particularly in the productive service sector [2] - The living service sector faces issues such as inadequate supply, lack of convenience, low quality standards, and weak talent support, especially in rural areas [2] - The focus for productive services should be on addressing development shortcomings and enhancing integration with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture [2] Group 3 - Promoting high-quality and efficient development of the service industry requires deepening reforms and increasing policy support in areas such as finance, investment, and talent [3] - Expanding market access and open fields for the service industry can stimulate innovation and development potential, enhancing international cooperation [3] - The development of the service industry is crucial for building a modern industrial system and meeting new expectations from the public [3]

Core Viewpoint - The importance of the productive service industry is emphasized as a key driver for the development of new productive forces in China, with a target to increase its GDP share to 40% by 2035 or 2040, alongside maintaining manufacturing at a minimum of 25% [1][3][9] Group 1: Role of Productive Service Industry - The productive service industry is crucial for enhancing technological innovation in manufacturing, improving efficiency, and reducing operational costs [3][4] - It serves as a growth engine for GDP and is a significant contributor to the emergence of unicorn companies [5][6] - The industry is interconnected with all sectors, linking primary, secondary, and tertiary industries [3][4] Group 2: Comparative Analysis - In the U.S., the productive service industry has grown from 10% of GDP in 1950 to 48% in 2022, while China's share has increased from about 10% in 1980 to 28% currently [4][5] - The growth rate of the productive service industry is the highest across various countries, indicating its potential to become the largest sector in GDP [5][6] Group 3: Challenges and Opportunities - China faces challenges in transforming research and innovation into practical applications, with only 7% of R&D funding allocated to original innovation compared to around 20% in G20 countries [7] - Logistics costs in China are significantly higher than in developed regions, suggesting potential for increased profitability if these costs are reduced [8] - The digital service sector has not been fully leveraged for industrial applications, indicating a need for improvement in this area [9]

要深入推进城乡融合发展。持续推进"四好"农村路建设，补齐设施短板，完善公共服务功能，提升乡村 建设水平和生活品质。坚持以城带乡，推动城市基础设施、公共服务向乡村延伸。维护进城落户农民的 农村权益。缩小城乡差距、收入差距，推动实现共同富裕。 《实施方案》明确，要着眼动能转换，着力推进创新城市（300778）建设。具体而言，要激发城市发展 内生动力。因地制宜发展新质生产力，大力发展生产性和生活性服务业，积极发展首发经济、银发经 济、冰雪经济、低空经济、会展经济。推动装备制造等传统产业转型升级，发展壮大新能源等新兴产 业，加快布局具身智能等未来产业。打造"城市场景驱动+创新赋能"，建设氢能、第五代移动通信网络 （5G）街区等应用场景。丰富拓展"公园+"场景业态。扩大"吉字号"品牌影响力。推动装配式建筑及智 能建造装备产业化。 要激活城市存量资源潜力。建立城市更新专项规划与国土空间规划有机衔接机制。摸清城市房屋、设 施、土地等资产资源底数。通过年度国土变更调查和城市国土空间监测等工作，综合识别城市存量空 间。结合国土空间规划体检评估，明确城市存量空间盘活优化规划目标和重点，推动分层编制、调整详 细规划。加强规划和土地 ...

请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 2025年我国经济的三个显著趋势 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 2025年节奏：冲刺起跑，逐季回落 图："反内卷"政策取向下，我国第二产业显著放缓，第三产业韧性凸显 图："开局即决战"思路下，今年我国经济总体呈前高后低态势 资料来源：Wind、国信证券经济研究所整理 资料来源：Macrobond、国信证券经济研究所整理 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 面对外部风险，今年在"开局即决战，起步即冲刺"部署下，Q1紧抓"窗 ...

2025年11月28日 证券研究报告 | 服务主导新周期 ——对"十五五"中国经济趋势的判断 经济研究 · 宏观专题 证券分析师：李智能 证券分析师：田地 证券分析师：董德志 0755-22940456 0755-81982035 021-60933158 lizn@guosen.com.cn tiandi2@guosen.com.cn dongdz@guosen.com.cn S0980516060001 S0980524090003 S0980513100001 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 摘要 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明及其项下所有内容 • 2025年中国经济正经历三大深刻且相互关联的转变：（1）增长主引擎正从第二产业向更具潜 力的第三产业（服务业）切换；（2）建筑业自然萎缩；（3）内需主力从投资转向消费。 • "反内卷"=控供给+扩需求（主要针对实物产品部门），是串联这一切的主线。其路径清晰： 在供给端，建筑业的主动萎缩与工业产能出清，正是清理低效资本、发展新质生产力的关键一 步；需求端，资本存量过高背景下投资需求总量难以扩张（结构会有亮点），消费构成扩需求 主力，而发展服务业正是 ...

Core Insights - The service consumption market in China is expanding steadily, with a projected annual growth rate of 9.6% from 2020 to 2024, driven by policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand [1][2][3] Group 1: Importance of Expanding Service Consumption - Service consumption is crucial for improving livelihoods and represents a significant direction for consumption transformation and upgrading [2][3] - The shift from goods to service consumption is evident, with service consumption emphasizing emotional and experiential satisfaction, which supports continuous upgrades and repeat purchases [2][3] - By 2024, the proportion of per capita service consumption expenditure is expected to reach 46.1% of total per capita consumption expenditure, indicating a growing role of service consumption in driving economic growth [2][3] Group 2: Employment and Quality of Life - Expanding service consumption is essential for stabilizing employment and improving living standards, as the service sector is labor-intensive and can create numerous job opportunities [3][4] - The growth in service consumption reflects a shift from material to spiritual consumption, enhancing overall well-being and quality of life for residents [3][4] - The number of domestic tourists is projected to increase from 3.262 billion in 2013 to 5.615 billion by 2024, showcasing the booming tourism market and its potential for consumption [3][4] Group 3: Economic Foundations for Service Consumption - China's stable economic growth provides a solid foundation for expanding service consumption, with the service sector becoming the largest industry in the national economy [4][5] - By 2024, the service sector's contribution to GDP is expected to reach 56.7%, indicating significant room for growth compared to developed countries where this figure is typically between 70% and 80% [4][5] - Rising income levels, with per capita GDP projected to reach 95,749 yuan in 2024, will further drive service consumption growth [4][5] Group 4: Demographic Changes and Market Potential - By the end of 2024, China's population is expected to reach 1.408 billion, with a notable increase in the elderly population, creating new demands for services such as home care and health management [5][6] - The urbanization rate is projected to reach 67% by 2024, providing additional opportunities for service consumption growth as more rural residents transition to urban living [5][6] Group 5: Policy Measures and Support for Service Consumption - The Chinese government has implemented various policies to support the expansion of service consumption, including the issuance of guidelines for high-quality service consumption development [6][7] - Recent measures include optimizing service supply and enhancing consumer capacity through targeted policies and local initiatives [6][7] Group 6: Digital Services and New Consumption Trends - The digital economy is transforming service consumption, with digital technologies driving innovation in service delivery and creating new consumption scenarios [11][12] - By 2024, the scale of digital consumption is expected to reach 23.8 trillion yuan, accounting for 44.2% of total consumption [11][12] - The emergence of new consumer groups with a preference for personalized and experiential services is further stimulating the growth of digital service consumption [12][13] Group 7: Financial Support for Service Consumption - Financial institutions are increasingly focusing on supporting service consumption through tailored financial products and services [17][18] - The People's Bank of China has established a 500 billion yuan fund to guide financial institutions in increasing credit to key service sectors [18][19] - The introduction of consumer finance services has been shown to significantly boost consumer spending, with estimates indicating a 16% to 30% increase in spending among borrowers [19][20]

为进一步构建优质高效服务业新体系，吴中区深入实施"产业强区、创新引领"发展战略，积极谋划生产 性服务业赋能"3+2+N"重点产业集群，2024年全区服务业增加值首次突破1000亿元，占GDP比重达 52.4%，生产性服务业占规上服务业比重超65%。 吴中区在推动产业融合、服务业集聚、领军企业培育等方面成效显著，累计培育江苏省"两业融合"区域 试点1个，"两业融合"试点单位7家，省市级现代服务业集聚区8家，省市级服务业领军企业14家。省级 以上孵化器11家，27家市级以上总部企业。吴中区成功获批江苏省首批面向人形机器人领域的未来产业 先行集聚发展试点，新业态、新模式、新动能不断涌现。 数智+AI双轮驱动 "十四五"期间，吴中区现代服务业发展全面提速，在结构优化、业态创新、产业集聚等方面取得显著成 效。通过促进载体升级、深化融合发展与改革，服务业整体呈现稳中向好、质效齐升的良好局面，为区 域经济转型升级与持续健康发展提供了强劲动力。 发展成效显著 服务业成经济核心支柱 吴中区汇聚多个专业创业园区和创新孵化基地，为创新主体提供全周期服务。以"一谷多园、生态智 谷、AI软实力、具身硬科技"为特色，构建"软件赋能+硬件 ...

Economic Overview - The national economy in October shows a stable and improving development trend, with production supply remaining stable and employment conditions generally solid [1] - The overall growth rate has slowed down, with industrial added value increasing by 4.9% year-on-year, down from 6.5% [1] - Exports decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, a significant drop from the previous month's growth of 8.3% [1] - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 2.9% year-on-year, slightly lower than the previous value of 3.0% [1] Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) turned from a decline of 0.3% last month to an increase of 0.2%, indicating a gradual recovery in domestic demand [1] - Core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose by 1.2% year-on-year, with the growth rate expanding for six consecutive months [1] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.1% year-on-year, but the decline has narrowed for three consecutive months, with a slight month-on-month increase of 0.1% [1] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment decreased by 1.7% year-on-year from January to October, with the decline in the tertiary industry investment being a major factor [2] - Investment in the first and second industries remains positive, while the third industry saw a decline of 5.3% [2] - Private investment fell by 4.5%, but excluding real estate development investment, it showed a slight positive growth of 0.2% [2] Manufacturing Sector - Despite overall investment pressures, manufacturing investment grew by 2.7% year-on-year from January to October, surpassing the overall investment growth rate [3] - High-tech manufacturing investment is growing rapidly, indicating a structural optimization in the manufacturing sector [3] - The demand for productive services is expanding due to manufacturing upgrades, highlighting significant investment opportunities in the service sector [3] Policy Recommendations - To establish a new economic growth model driven by domestic demand, consumption, and innovation, there is a need for enhanced policy guidance and investment support for both life and productive services [3] - Private enterprises, with their flexible mechanisms, have a natural advantage in these service sectors, suggesting a need for reforms to stimulate private investment in high-value-added service areas [3]

Core Insights - The meeting chaired by Zheng Zhanjie focused on gathering opinions and suggestions for accelerating the development of the service industry in line with the "14th Five-Year Plan" [1][2] - The service industry is recognized as a crucial component of the national economy, with significant potential for expansion and quality improvement [2] Group 1: Service Industry Development - The service industry in China has been rapidly developing, with a continuously expanding market size and the emergence of new models and formats, providing ample space for high-quality development [1] - Companies are optimistic about the future demand in the service sector and are working towards specialized and refined service development to better meet production activities and public needs [1] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes promoting high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, implementing actions to enhance capacity and quality, and deepening regulatory reforms [2] Group 2: Government Support and Policy Recommendations - Zheng Zhanjie highlighted the importance of the service industry's development level as a measure of a country's economic progress and called for companies to seize development opportunities [2] - The government plans to absorb and adopt valuable suggestions from enterprises in the formulation of the "14th Five-Year Plan" [2] - Recent measures released by the State Council signal strong support for the development of private enterprises, indicating a favorable environment for investment and growth in the service sector [3]

Core Viewpoint - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the high-quality and efficient development of the service industry, marking a new stage of quality improvement and innovation integration in China's service sector [1][2]. Group 1: Expansion and Quality Improvement of the Service Industry - The service industry in China is set to expand and improve significantly, driven by structural changes such as increased GDP per capita, accelerated industrial transformation, and rising urbanization rates [2]. - The plan proposes actions to enhance the quality and capacity of the service industry, which will help reshape the economic ecosystem and better meet the needs of the population [2]. - The two main pillars of the service industry, productive and life services, are identified as "dual engines" for this expansion, with a focus on upgrading productive services to support industrial transformation and enhancing life services for public welfare [2][3]. Group 2: Continuous Expansion of Open Sectors - Expanding the openness of the service industry is crucial for its high-quality development, with the plan suggesting alignment with international trade rules to enhance market access [4][6]. - In the first nine months of this year, actual foreign investment in the service sector reached 410.93 billion yuan, accounting for over 70% of total foreign investment [4]. - The plan highlights the need to further open sectors such as telecommunications, biotechnology, and education, aiming to boost foreign investment and enhance the service industry's global competitiveness [4][6]. Group 3: Enhancing Integration Development Levels - The integration of modern services with advanced manufacturing and modern agriculture is a key trend, aimed at driving industrial transformation and enhancing core competitiveness [7]. - The dynamic process of integrating modern services with advanced manufacturing is expected to foster innovation and improve service quality, thereby promoting new production capabilities [7][8]. - The development of service-oriented manufacturing has shown initial advantages, with continuous improvement in the sector's development index from 2018 to 2023 [8].