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研究所晨会观点精萃-20250624
Dong Hai Qi Huo· 2025-06-24 01:04
Group 1: Overall Market Sentiment - The geopolitical risk in the Middle East has declined, leading to an overall increase in global risk appetite. In China, economic growth is generally stable, with strong consumption growth in May but a slowdown in investment and industrial production, which also boosts domestic risk appetite [2]. Group 2: Asset Recommendations - Stock indices are expected to oscillate and rebound in the short - term, with a recommendation of cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are expected to remain at a high level and oscillate, with a suggestion of cautious observation. For commodities, black metals are in short - term low - level oscillation (cautious observation), non - ferrous metals are oscillating strongly (cautious short - term long positions), energy and chemicals are experiencing increased volatility (cautious observation), and precious metals are at a high - level oscillation (cautious observation) [2]. Group 3: Stock Indices - Driven by sectors such as digital currency, energy metals, and port shipping, the domestic stock market has risen. The short - term market trading logic focuses on Middle East geopolitical risks, changes in US trade policies, and trade negotiation progress. With the decline in short - term Middle East geopolitical risks, the impact on the market has weakened. It is recommended to be cautiously long in the short - term [3]. Group 4: Precious Metals - On Monday, the precious metals market oscillated upward. Geopolitical conflicts and the Fed's hawkish stance have an impact on precious metals. The market is currently focused on the Middle East situation, and the attitude of Iran should be closely monitored [3]. Group 5: Black Metals Steel - With demand at a low level, the spot and futures prices of steel continue to oscillate. The real - world demand for steel still has resilience, but the market's outlook is pessimistic. Supply is expected to remain high in the short - term, and the market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [4][5]. Iron Ore - On Monday, the spot and futures prices of iron ore slightly declined, while the futures price rebounded. Short - term demand is okay, but the supply is expected to remain high in the second quarter. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [5]. Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron - The spot prices of silicon manganese and silicon iron remained flat on Monday. Short - term demand is okay, but downstream procurement is weak. The market is expected to oscillate within a range, and short - term rebound opportunities can be considered if energy prices continue to strengthen [6]. Group 6: Chemicals Soda Ash - On Monday, soda ash oscillated. Supply remains abundant, demand has contracted, and inventory has increased. The price is expected to be under pressure and oscillate within a range [7]. Glass - On Monday, glass was weakly oscillating. Supply is mainly for rigid demand, and demand is weak due to the poor real - estate market. The price is expected to oscillate within a range [7]. Group 7: Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US Federal Reserve's June interest - rate meeting was more hawkish. The production of copper is at a high level, and demand may decline marginally. The price is expected to oscillate, and the negotiation results between the US and other countries and the US's copper tariff policy should be monitored [8]. Aluminum - Central funds of 138 billion yuan will be gradually released in the third and fourth quarters. Aluminum prices are rising, mainly driven by the external market. Downstream demand may weaken, and the inventory situation should be monitored [9]. Aluminum Alloy - It has entered the off - season for demand, but the tight supply of scrap aluminum provides some support for the price. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is limited [9]. Tin - The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is in the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short - term, but the upside is restricted by high tariffs,复产 expectations, and weakening demand [10]. Group 8: Energy and Chemicals Crude Oil - Iran's attack on a US airbase did not target energy infrastructure, and the probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased significantly, leading to a sharp decline in oil prices [11]. Asphalt - Asphalt prices will follow the decline in oil prices. The shipment volume has improved slightly, and the inventory is being depleted. It will continue to fluctuate at a high level following crude oil [11]. PX - The cost support for PX is strong in the short - term, but the decline in oil prices brings uncertainties. PX prices may face a callback risk and will continue to oscillate strongly following crude oil [11]. PTA - The basis of PTA remains at a high level. The upstream - downstream contradiction is significant, and the inventory is accumulating. The decline in oil prices will severely impact the futures price [12][13]. Ethylene Glycol - The probability of Iran blocking the Strait of Hormuz has decreased, and the impact on device shutdowns has weakened. The inventory depletion has slowed down, and the price may experience a larger callback following the decline in oil prices [13]. Short - Fiber - The decline in crude oil prices will drive down short - fiber prices. It will continue to oscillate strongly following the polyester sector, but the terminal orders are average [13]. Methanol - Methanol prices have squeezed downstream profits, and the price is expected to decline in the short - term due to the possible end of geopolitical conflicts [13]. PP - The production of PP is increasing, and downstream开工 has slightly declined. The price is expected to fall with the decline in oil prices [13]. LLDPE - The device production has not increased significantly, and downstream demand has not changed much. The futures price is expected to continue to weaken, with increased short - term volatility [13]. Group 9: Agricultural Products US Soybeans - Overnight, CBOT soybeans declined. Favorable weather in the US Midwest is expected to benefit crop growth [14]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - The inventory of soybeans and soybean meal in Chinese oil mills has increased. The supply - demand of soybean meal is gradually becoming more balanced, and the rapeseed meal market is dominated by the soybean meal market [15]. Oils and Fats - The decline in geopolitical risks in the Middle East has led to a decline in the premium of international oils and fats. The inventory of palm oil and soybean oil in China has increased [15][16]. Corn - The price of corn in the Northeast has risen, but the supply from the Northeast to North China has increased, and the price in North China has decreased. The start of wheat procurement and the possible increase in old - corn sales may lead to a high - level consolidation of corn prices [16]. Hogs - The weight - reduction efforts of pig - raising groups are limited. The spot price in the benchmark area is stable, and the futures price is expected to be repaired. The price is expected to fluctuate within a range, with possible stronger fluctuations [17].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 03:28
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Futures prices strengthened on Friday, and the basis remained weak. Hot - rolled coil production has rebounded, with high apparent demand and a small decline. However, the supply and demand of rebar are both weak, and the apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, absorbing production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. Operate with a bearish bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 and 3050 yuan for hot - rolled coil and rebar respectively[1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore is under obvious upward pressure due to the expected decline in hot metal, supply increase, and administrative production cuts. However, the short - term decline in hot metal is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the price range of iron ore may shift downwards, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan[3]. Coke - Last week, coke futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, environmental protection inspections have led to production cuts in northern regions, and independent coking operations have declined. On the demand side, hot metal production has continued to decline after reaching a peak. In terms of inventory, coking plants and ports have reduced inventories, and steel mills are actively reducing inventories. Strategically, consider short - term shorting of the coke 2509 contract on rebounds and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Coking Coal - Last week, coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. On the supply side, domestic production has decreased due to various factors, and imported coal has different situations. On the demand side, coking operations have declined, and downstream users are cautious in restocking. In terms of inventory, overall inventory is at a medium level. Strategically, consider short - term long - coking coal 2509 contract on dips and a long - coking coal and short - coke arbitrage strategy[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese - Ferrosilicon: Last week, ferrosilicon production increased slightly, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Due to weakening demand, prices are weak, and manufacturers' losses are intensifying. Although inventories have decreased, they are still relatively high. In terms of demand, hot metal production has increased slightly, but there are risks of off - season demand decline. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. - Ferromanganese: Last week, ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts mainly in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Supply pressure persists during the off - season. Inventories of manufacturers have increased, and the number of warehouse receipts has continued to decline. Although the overall supply - demand situation has improved, it is still insufficient. Strategically, it is recommended to short on rebounds[7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in different regions showed small changes, with some increases. Futures prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil also rose slightly. The basis of rebar and hot - rolled coil showed different trends[1]. Cost and Profit - The price of steel billets increased by 10 yuan, and the price of slab remained unchanged. The costs of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar and converter rebar decreased, while the profits of hot - rolled coil in different regions decreased to varying degrees[1]. Production - The daily average hot metal output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The output of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar output increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter output increasing and electric - arc furnace output decreasing. Hot - rolled coil output increased by 0.8 tons to 325.5 tons, a 0.2% increase[1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease. Hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease[1]. Transaction and Demand - Building materials trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand of five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand of rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease. The apparent demand of hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase[1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly. The basis of 09 contracts for different varieties decreased significantly. The 5 - 9 spread decreased, the 9 - 1 spread increased, and the 1 - 5 spread decreased slightly[3]. Supply - The global weekly shipment volume decreased by 157.7 tons to 3352.7 tons, a 4.5% decrease, mainly due to a decrease in Australian shipments. The weekly arrival volume at 45 ports decreased by 224.8 tons to 2384.5 tons, an 8.6% decrease, mainly due to the decrease in Brazilian ore arrivals[3]. Demand - The daily average hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The daily average ore removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase. National monthly pig iron and crude steel production increased[3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease[3]. Coke Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke and Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged. Coke futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The J09 - J01 spread increased slightly. Coking profits decreased[5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Demand - The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 18.8 to 952.9 tons, a 1.9% decrease. Coking plant inventories, steel mill inventories, and port inventories all decreased to varying degrees[5]. Supply - Demand Gap - The coke supply - demand gap decreased by 0.5 to - 5.2 tons, a 9.04% decrease[5]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The prices of Shanxi and Mongolian coking coal warehouse receipts remained unchanged. Coking coal futures prices increased slightly, and the basis decreased. The JM09 - JM01 spread decreased. Sample coal mine profits decreased by 24, a 7.5% decrease[5]. Supply - The weekly production of raw coal decreased by 9.8 to 856.4 tons, a 1.1% decrease, and the production of clean coal decreased by 3.4 to 437.2 tons, a 0.8% decrease[5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 64.7 tons, a 0.5% decrease. The daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 to 47.4 tons, a 0.3% increase[5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei mines decreased by 25.1 to 258.9 tons, an 8.84% decrease. The coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 2.3 to 795.8 tons, a 0.3% decrease. The coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 0.7 to 774.7 tons, a 0.14% increase. Port inventories decreased by 8.7 to 303.3 tons, a 2.8% decrease[5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Prices and Spreads - The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased by 10 to 5300 yuan. The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased by 32 to 5616 yuan. The prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese in different regions showed different changes[7]. Cost and Profit - The production costs of ferrosilicon in different regions decreased slightly, and the production profits in Inner Mongolia and Ningxia increased slightly. The prices of manganese ore in Tianjin Port showed small changes, and the production costs and profits of ferromanganese in different regions also changed[7]. Supply - Ferrosilicon production increased by 3 to 98 tons, a 2.9% increase, and the production enterprise's operating rate increased by 1.3 to 32.7%, a 4.3% increase. Ferromanganese production increased slightly, and the operating rate increased by 1.1 to 36.4%, a 3.14% increase. Manganese ore shipments increased by 9 to 70.7 tons, a 14.6% increase, and arrivals decreased by 14 to 53.8 tons, a 20.6% decrease. Manganese ore port inventories increased by 19.9 to 440.1 tons, a 4.7% increase[7]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand calculated by the Steel Union remained unchanged at 2 tons. The ferromanganese demand calculated by the Steel Union increased by 0.2 to 124 tons. The hot metal output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase[7]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample ferrosilicon enterprises decreased by 0.2 to 68 tons, a 2.7% decrease. The inventory of 63 sample ferromanganese enterprises increased by 1.0 to 20.6 tons, a 5.14% increase. The average available days of ferrosilicon inventory for downstream users increased by 0.2 to 15.4 days, a 1.2% increase. The average available days of ferromanganese inventory decreased by 0.3 to 15 days, a 1.9% decrease[7].
《黑色》日报-20250623
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-23 02:27
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Steel - Black metal prices have stabilized with a rising central level. Currently, hot-rolled coil production has rebounded, and apparent demand remains high with a small decline. However, both supply and demand of rebar are weak, and apparent demand has declined. Steel and billet exports remain high, digesting production. It is still the off - season for steel, and demand is difficult to improve marginally. Steel maintains a pattern of cost drag and weak demand expectations. In the short term, inventory remains low, and the pressure on steel mills to cut production is small. Iron element costs are supported, but carbon elements are still weak. Later, steel prices will follow the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Operationally, consider short - selling on rebounds or selling out - of - the - money call options. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coil and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, iron ore has obvious upside pressure due to the expected decline in molten iron, supply increase, and administrative reduction. However, the short - term decline in molten iron is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. During the off - season when demand weakens, the iron ore price range may shift downward, with a reference range of 670 - 720 yuan. Although the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, it still has some short - term resilience. The average molten iron output in June is expected to remain above 2.4 million tons. Pay attention to the change in molten iron output in July [3]. Coke - The spot fundamentals of coke are still relatively loose. With the sharp rise in crude oil driving the expectation of an energy crisis and the news of production restrictions in the production areas, the coal - coke futures are at a premium to the spot, providing an opportunity for hedging short positions. Unilaterally, it is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract on short - term rebounds. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal - The spot fundamentals of coking coal have improved. Affected by the risk of geopolitical conflicts and the sharp rise in crude oil, coking coal has followed the upward trend, and the basis has been repaired. Unilaterally, it is recommended to go long on the coking coal 2509 contract on short - term dips. For arbitrage, consider a strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply of ferrosilicon increased slightly last week, mainly in Ningxia and Shaanxi. Affected by the continuous weakening of demand, prices remained weak, and manufacturers' losses continued to intensify. Although manufacturers' inventories decreased, the absolute value was still high. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. In the future, the supply - demand contradiction of ferrosilicon still needs to be resolved. In the short term, the stabilization of costs gives some room for price increases, but the sustainability is questionable. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. Ferromanganese - Ferromanganese continued its rebound trend last week. Although its absolute valuation is low, its supply is still relatively loose. Supply increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. Under the off - season demand, supply pressure still exists. Manufacturers' inventories increased, and the number of warehouse receipts continued to decline. In terms of demand, molten iron increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. Steel billet exports remained strong, and short - term molten iron is expected to remain at a high level. However, terminal demand faces the risk of weakening in the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved, but the improvement is insufficient. It is recommended to short on rebounds [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - **Prices and Spreads**: Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot and futures prices showed different changes. Some regions' spot prices increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. For example, the rebar spot price in South China increased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: Steel billet prices increased by 10 yuan/ton, while some steelmaking costs decreased. The profits of hot - rolled coil and rebar in different regions decreased to varying degrees. For example, the profit of East China hot - rolled coil decreased by 13 yuan/ton [1]. - **Production**: The daily average molten iron output increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The production of five major steel products increased by 9.7 tons to 868.5 tons, a 1.1% increase. Rebar production increased by 4.6 tons to 212.2 tons, a 2.2% increase, with converter production increasing by 6.2 tons and electric furnace production decreasing by 1.6 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 15.7 tons to 1338.9 tons, a 1.2% decrease. Rebar inventory decreased by 7.0 tons to 551.1 tons, a 1.3% decrease, and hot - rolled coil inventory decreased by 5.2 tons to 340.2 tons, a 1.5% decrease [1]. - **Transaction and Demand**: Building material trading volume increased by 0.7 to 9.7 tons, an 8.2% increase. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 16.1 tons to 884.2 tons, a 1.9% increase. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 0.8 tons to 219.2 tons, a 0.4% decrease, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coil increased by 10.8 tons to 330.7 tons, a 3.4% increase [1]. Iron Ore - **Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt costs of various iron ore varieties increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract for some varieties decreased significantly. For example, the basis of PB powder for the 09 contract decreased by 46.8 yuan/ton, a 49.8% decrease [3]. - **Supply**: The global iron ore shipment volume decreased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly due to a decrease in shipments from Australia. The arrival volume at ports decreased slightly, mainly due to a decrease in the arrival of Brazilian ore. Based on shipment data, the average future arrival volume is expected to remain at a relatively high level [3]. - **Demand**: The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.6 to 242.2 tons, a 0.2% increase. The average daily ore - removal volume at 45 ports increased by 12.3 to 313.6 tons, a 4.1% increase [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13894.16 tons, a 0.1% increase. The imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills increased by 137.6 to 8936.2 tons, a 1.6% increase. The inventory available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 2 to 19 days, a 9.5% decrease [3]. Coke - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, while the spot market was weakly stable. The third - round spot price cut of coke was implemented on June 6, with a reduction of 70/75 yuan/ton, and the cumulative reduction was 120/135 yuan/ton. The mainstream steel mills proposed a fourth - round price cut on the 20th, which is expected to be implemented on the 23rd [6]. - **Supply**: Recently, environmental protection inspection teams have entered multiple northern provinces. Affected by environmental protection and other factors such as maintenance, the supply of coking in the northern region has tightened, and the operation rate of independent coking plants has declined [6]. - **Demand**: In June, molten iron production continued to remain above 2.4 million tons per day, but the blast furnace operation rate decreased slightly, and molten iron production continued the trend of peaking and falling [6]. - **Inventory**: Coking plant inventories decreased slightly, port inventories continued to decrease, and steel mill inventories also decreased. Downstream steel mills continued the rhythm of active de - stocking, and overall inventories were at a medium level [6]. Coking Coal - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures showed a volatile and slightly upward trend, and the spot market was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal prices slowed down, and the prices of some coal mines rebounded slightly, but the overall market was still weak [6]. - **Supply**: In the Inner Mongolia region, many coal mines stopped production due to environmental protection and other factors. In the Shanxi region, supply decreased significantly due to accidents and other factors, and coal mines began to hold prices. Overall, the production of coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. For imported coal, the price of Mongolian coal rebounded slightly, and the port inventory pressure was still obvious. The import profit of seaborne coal continued to be inverted, and there was a recent price correction [6]. - **Demand**: The operation rate of coking plants began to decline, and the molten iron production of blast furnaces continued the trend of peaking and falling. Downstream users mainly replenished their inventories on - demand. Although the downstream demand still had some resilience, the overall demand was weakening [6]. - **Inventory**: Coal mine inventories continued to accumulate at a high level, and there was pressure to reduce prices for sales. Port inventories began to decline from a high level, and downstream users controlled their inventories. The overall inventory was at a medium level [6]. Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract decreased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The cost of production in some regions decreased, and the production profit increased slightly [7]. - **Supply**: Ferrosilicon production increased slightly on a week - on - week basis, mainly concentrated in Ningxia and Shaanxi. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The export of ferrosilicon may still maintain some resilience, but the marginal growth space is limited [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferrosilicon manufacturers decreased, but the absolute value was still high. The average available days of downstream ferrosilicon increased slightly [7]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract increased, and the spot prices in some regions increased slightly. The manganese ore supply and demand situation changed, with an increase in the shipment volume and a decrease in the arrival volume at ports [7]. - **Supply**: Ferromanganese production increased slightly, with restarts concentrated in Inner Mongolia and Yunnan. The operation rate of production enterprises increased [7]. - **Demand**: Molten iron production increased slightly, and steel mills' profitability remained stable. The demand for ferromanganese from metal iron has not improved significantly [7]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of ferromanganese manufacturers increased, and the average available days of downstream ferromanganese decreased slightly [7].
整理:每日期货市场要闻速递(6月20日)
news flash· 2025-06-20 00:11
Group 1 - Hebei Iron and Steel Group set the silicon manganese price at 5,650 CNY/ton for June, with the first round inquiry price at 5,500 CNY/ton, down from 5,850 CNY/ton in May [1] - As of June 19, rebar production has turned from decline to increase, with factory inventory decreasing for the fourth consecutive week and social inventory decreasing for the fifteenth consecutive week [1] - The average profit per ton of coke for 30 independent coking plants nationwide is -23 CNY/ton, with Shanxi's first-grade coke averaging -3 CNY/ton and Shandong's first-grade coke averaging 31 CNY/ton [1] Group 2 - Brazilian shipping agency Williams reported that the amount of sugar waiting for shipment at Brazilian ports is 2.8539 million tons, down from 2.9104 million tons the previous week [1] - The Canadian Grain Commission reported that as of June 15, canola exports decreased by 17.05% week-on-week to 131,400 tons [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of float glass sample enterprises nationwide increased by 202,000 heavy boxes or 0.29% to 6,988,700 heavy boxes, reaching an 8.5-month high [1] Group 3 - The Singapore Enterprise Development Agency (ESG) reported that as of June 18, fuel oil inventory in Singapore decreased by 2.211 million barrels to 21.503 million barrels, the lowest in five weeks [1] - As of June 19, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers is 1.7267 million tons, an increase of 40,400 tons week-on-week (+2.40%), with an increase of 17,200 tons compared to Monday [1] - On June 19, the auction for battery-grade lithium carbonate ended, with 300 tons from Ronghui Lithium Industry and 300 tons from Yongshan Lithium Industry sold at prices of 59,910 CNY/ton and 60,010 CNY/ton respectively [2] Group 4 - Insiders indicate that the photovoltaic industry is expected to see a greater reduction in production in the third quarter, with the operating rate expected to decrease by 10%-15% quarter-on-quarter [2]
《黑色》日报-20250619
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 01:00
Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints Steel - The steel market follows the fluctuations of coking coal and coke. Rebound short - selling operations or selling out - of - the - money call options are recommended. Pay attention to the pressure levels of 3150 yuan for hot - rolled coils and 3050 yuan for rebar [1]. Iron Ore - In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price due to the expected decline in hot - metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains unchanged. The price range may shift down to 720 - 670 [4]. Coke - There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts in the future. For the 2509 contract, short - selling at high levels around 1380 - 1430 is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Coking Coal - Spot fundamentals have improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels around 800 - 850 for the 2509 contract is recommended. A strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke can be considered [6]. Ferrosilicon - The supply - demand contradiction is rising. In the short term, the price is expected to be weak. Attention should be paid to the change in coal prices [7]. Silicomanganese - Supply pressure still exists. In the short term, the price is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to the change in coke prices [7]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in some regions increased slightly, and futures prices also rose. The basis of steel showed a weak trend [1]. Cost and Profit - Steel billet and slab prices remained unchanged. Some steel production costs changed, and the profits of some regions increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average hot - metal output remained unchanged, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. Steel inventories decreased slightly [1]. Viewpoint - The steel market is affected by the raw material market and seasonal factors. Production is expected to remain high, and exports rebounded from a low level [1]. Iron Ore Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs and spot prices of various iron ore varieties decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract declined significantly [4]. Supply and Demand - Global shipments decreased slightly, mainly from Australia. The arrival volume decreased slightly, and demand is expected to remain stable in the short term [4]. Inventory - Port inventories increased, and steel mills' equity ore inventories also rose [4]. Viewpoint - There are risks of weakening demand in the off - season, and supply pressure will increase. The price is expected to decline [4]. Coke Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, while spot prices were weakly stable. There are still expectations of price cuts in the future [6]. Supply and Demand - Supply decreased due to environmental protection, and demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Inventories at coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Viewpoint - There are expectations of further price cuts. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices were weakly stable. The basis was repaired [6]. Supply and Demand - Domestic production decreased slightly, and imported coal prices continued to decline. Demand showed a downward trend [6]. Inventory - Coal mine inventories and port inventories increased, and downstream inventories were at a medium level [6]. Viewpoint - Spot fundamentals improved slightly. Short - selling at high levels is recommended [6]. Ferrosilicon Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and some spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs decreased slightly, and losses decreased [7]. Supply and Demand - Production and demand both decreased [7]. Inventory - Inventories increased slightly [7]. Viewpoint - The supply - demand contradiction is rising, and the price is expected to be weak [7]. Silicomanganese Prices and Spreads - Futures prices rose slightly, and spot prices increased. The basis changed [7]. Cost and Profit - Production costs changed slightly, and profits improved [7]. Supply and Demand - Supply increased slightly, and demand decreased [7]. Inventory - Manganese ore inventories increased, and silicomanganese inventories increased [7]. Viewpoint - Supply pressure still exists, and the price is expected to decline [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250618
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-18 03:08
Report Summary for Steel and Related Industries 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Steel Industry**: The Iran - Israel conflict slightly boosts market sentiment, but does not change the domestic supply - loose pattern of steel. Steel prices are expected to rebound slightly but continue the downward trend. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias on rebounds or sell out - of - the - money call options [1]. - **Iron Ore Industry**: In the short term, iron ore prices are under obvious pressure due to factors such as the decline in hot metal production, supply increase, and administrative reduction expectations. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. The price range may shift downward to 720 - 670 [4]. - **Coke Industry**: The spot fundamentals are still loose. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at around 1380 - 1430 on rebounds, and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Coking Coal Industry**: The spot fundamentals have improved slightly. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at around 800 - 850 on rebounds, and also consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. - **Silicon Iron Industry**: The supply - demand contradiction of silicon iron is rising. Short - term price fluctuations are mainly affected by cost changes. It is necessary to pay attention to coal price changes [7]. - **Silicon Manganese Industry**: The supply pressure of silicon manganese still exists. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate at the bottom, and attention should be paid to coke price changes [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Steel Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Most steel spot and futures prices showed a downward trend. For example, the price of hot - rolled coil spot in East China decreased from 3200 to 3190 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The cost of steel billets decreased by 10 yuan, while the profit of hot - rolled coils in some regions increased, such as the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China increasing by 31 yuan [1]. - **Production and Inventory**: The daily average hot metal output remained unchanged at 241.8 tons, and the production of five major steel products decreased by 2.4%. The inventory of five major steel products decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The prices of iron ore spot and futures generally declined. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port decreased from 720 to 713 yuan/ton [4]. - **Supply and Demand**: The global iron ore shipment volume increased slightly, the arrival volume increased, the demand for hot metal decreased slightly, and the port inventory increased [4]. Coke Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coke futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The third - round price cut of coke was implemented, and there is an expectation of 1 - 2 more rounds of price cuts [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of coking plants decreased, and the demand for hot metal decreased slightly. The inventory of coking plants, ports, and steel mills all decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: Coking coal futures prices fluctuated slightly, and the spot price was weakly stable. The decline of domestic coking coal slowed down, and some coal mines' transaction prices rebounded [6]. - **Supply and Demand**: Due to environmental protection inspections, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly, the import of coking coal was weak, the demand for coking decreased, and the inventory of coal mines and ports increased [6]. Silicon Iron Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon iron futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was stable, and the production profit was still in a loss state [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon iron decreased slightly, the demand decreased, and the inventory increased [7]. Silicon Manganese Industry - **Prices and Spreads**: The price of silicon manganese futures decreased, and the spot price in some regions increased. The production cost was relatively stable, and the production profit improved slightly [7]. - **Supply and Demand**: The production of silicon manganese increased slightly, the demand decreased, the manganese ore shipment volume increased, the arrival volume decreased, and the inventory increased [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250616
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-16 05:52
1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - After the steel price rebounded last week, there are signs of weakness again. Finished steel production has decreased significantly, apparent demand continues to decline, and inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation. It is recommended to take a short - position operation, and the previously suggested short positions in hot - rolled coils and rebar should be held [1]. Iron Ore Industry - The global iron ore shipment volume has continued to increase, reaching a high level this year. The arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron has slightly declined, and the inventory has increased. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the iron ore price, and the 09 contract should be treated with a short - position mindset. The price range may move down to 670 - 720 [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is weakly stable. There are still expectations of 1 - 2 rounds of price cuts. The supply has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors is decreasing. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at 1380 - 1430 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures first rose and then fell last week, and the spot market is still weak. The supply is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at 800 - 850 and consider the strategy of going long on coking coal and short on coke [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - For ferrosilicon, the production has slightly declined, the demand is weak, and the inventory has increased. The cost may decline, and the price is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. For ferromanganese, the supply pressure still exists, and the price is also expected to fluctuate at the bottom [7]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - Rebar and hot - rolled coil spot prices in most regions have declined or remained stable, while futures prices have mostly increased. The basis and spreads have also changed [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of some steel products has changed, and the profit of most steel products has decreased, except for the rebar profit in North China, which has increased [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron production remains unchanged, the production of five major steel products has decreased by 2.4%, and the inventory of five major steel products has decreased by 0.7% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The warehouse - receipt costs of some iron ore varieties have changed, and the basis of the 09 contract has generally decreased. The spreads between different contracts have also changed [4]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume and arrival volume of iron ore have increased, while the demand for molten iron has slightly decreased, and the inventory has increased [4]. Coke Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coke are stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coking profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coke has decreased due to environmental protection, and the demand has slightly declined. The inventory in various sectors has decreased [6]. Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The spot prices of coking coal are mostly stable, while the futures prices have increased. The basis has decreased, and the coal mine profit has decreased [6]. Supply and Demand - The supply of coking coal is at a relatively high level, and the demand has a certain resilience. The inventory is accumulating [6]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Prices and Spreads - The futures prices of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese have increased, and the spot prices of some varieties are stable. The basis and spreads have changed [7]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of some regions has changed slightly, and the profit situation is not optimistic [7]. Supply and Demand - The production of ferrosilicon has decreased, and the demand is weak. The production of ferromanganese has increased slightly, and the demand has also declined [7]. Inventory - The inventory of ferrosilicon and ferromanganese has increased [7].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250612
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-12 01:53
Group 1: Steel Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - Recent steel prices rebounded, basis weakened, and spot entered a weak off - season. Demand is expected to remain weak due to the off - season and tariff suppression. Iron ore shipments are surging this month, and the iron ore inventory is approaching the inflection point of accumulation, which is unfavorable for the rebound of black metals. It is recommended to focus on opportunities to lay out short positions on rebounds, referring to the pressure of the 20 - day moving average of the October contract [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Steel Prices and Spreads**: Most steel prices remained stable or had small increases. For example, the spot price of hot - rolled coils in East China increased by 10 yuan/ton to 3200 yuan/ton, and the 05 contract of hot - rolled coils increased by 11 yuan to 3098 yuan/ton [1]. - **Cost and Profit**: The price of steel billets increased by 20 yuan to 2920 yuan, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coils decreased by 18 yuan to 147 yuan [1]. - **Production**: The daily average pig iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the output of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4 tons. The output of rebar decreased by 7.0 tons to 218.5 tons, while the output of hot - rolled coils increased by 9.2 tons to 328.8 tons [1]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 tons to 1363.8 tons. The rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 tons to 570.5 tons, and the hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 tons to 340.6 tons [1]. - **Trading and Demand**: The building materials trading volume increased by 0.5 to 10.5, and the apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 tons to 882.2 tons. The apparent demand for rebar decreased by 19.7 tons to 229.0 tons, and the apparent demand for hot - rolled coils decreased by 6.0 tons to 320.9 tons [1]. Group 2: Iron Ore Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The 09 contract of iron ore oscillated. In the short term, there is obvious suppression on the upside of iron ore due to the decline of pig iron output from a high level, increased supply, and administrative reduction. In the long - term, a bearish view on the 09 contract remains. Considering the risk of weakening demand in the off - season, the price range of iron ore may move down, with a reference range of 720 - 670 [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads**: The warehouse - receipt cost of various iron ore types increased slightly, and the basis of the 09 contract of most iron ore types decreased significantly. For example, the warehouse - receipt cost of PB powder increased by 5.5 to 765.6 yuan/ton, and the 09 contract basis of PB powder decreased by 58.0 to 58.6 yuan/ton [3]. - **Supply**: The weekly global iron ore shipments increased by 79.4 tons to 3510.4 tons, and the weekly arrivals at 45 ports increased by 72.8 tons to 2609.3 tons. The monthly national import volume increased by 917.5 tons to 10313.8 tons [3]. - **Demand**: The weekly average daily pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons, and the weekly average daily ore - dispatching volume at 45 ports decreased by 12.7 tons to 314.0 tons. The monthly national pig iron output decreased by 271.1 tons to 7258.3 tons, and the monthly national crude steel output decreased by 682.2 tons to 8601.9 tons [3]. - **Inventory**: The inventory at 45 ports increased by 20.3 tons to 13846.94 tons, the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 tons to 8690.2 tons, and the inventory - available days of 64 steel mills decreased by 1.0 to 19.0 days [3]. Group 3: Coke Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coke futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak and stable, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The spot may have one more round of price cuts but is approaching the phased bottom. The supply is affected by environmental protection, and the demand is showing a trend of reaching the peak and then declining. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coke on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coke - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of first - grade wet - quenched coke in Shanxi increased by 9 to 1154, and the 09 contract of coke increased by 7 to 1356. The 09 basis decreased by 7 to - 39 [5]. - **Supply**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 tons to 987.0 tons. The coke inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 tons to 127.0 tons, the coke inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 tons to 645.8 tons, and the port inventory decreased by 3.0 tons to 214.2 tons [5]. Group 4: Coking Coal Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - The coking coal futures oscillated strongly, while the spot was weak, showing a divergence between futures and spot. The decline of the spot price of coking coal has narrowed, and some coal mines have seen improved transactions. It is recommended to use interval operations, with a short - term strategy of going long on the 2509 contract of coking coal on dips and a 9 - 1 positive spread arbitrage strategy [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs - **Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads**: The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse - receipt) remained unchanged at 970, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian coal warehouse - receipt) decreased by 10 to 828. The 09 contract of coking coal decreased by 2 to 784, and the 01 contract increased by 2 to 793 [5]. - **Supply**: The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 tons to 873.0 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 tons to 445.0 tons. The import of Mongolian coal has a slow - down in price decline, and the import profit of seaborne coal is still negative [5]. - **Demand**: The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged at 47.3 tons. The pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [5]. - **Inventory**: The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines decreased slightly by 0.1 to 271.5 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 tons to 818.9 tons, the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 tons to 770.9 tons, and the port inventory increased by 9.9 tons to 313.0 tons [5]. Group 5: Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. Report's Core View - **Ferrosilicon**: The ferrosilicon futures oscillated. The supply increased, and the demand is affected by both steel and non - steel sectors. The cost is short - term stable, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. - **Ferromanganese**: The ferromanganese futures oscillated. The supply pressure remains, and the manganese ore supply and price have certain fluctuations. It is expected that the price will fluctuate at the bottom in the short term, with attention paid to the change in coal prices [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Ferrosilicon - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferrosilicon main contract increased by 10 to 5184, and the spot price of 72% FeSi in Inner Mongolia decreased by 50 to 5100 yuan/ton [6]. - **Cost and Profit**: The production cost in Inner Mongolia decreased by 4.1 to 5603.8 yuan/ton, and the production profit increased by 4.1 to - 173.8 yuan/ton [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferrosilicon output increased by 1.2 tons to 9.7 tons, and the operating rate of ferrosilicon production enterprises increased by 2.3 to 32.8% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferrosilicon demand decreased by 0.1 to 2.0 tons, and the daily average pig iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 tons to 68 tons [6]. Ferromanganese - **Prices and Spreads**: The closing price of the ferromanganese main contract decreased by 56 to 5486, and the spot price of FeMn65Si17 in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged at 5430 yuan/ton [6]. - **Manganese Ore Supply**: The global manganese ore shipments decreased by 9.5 tons to 61.7 tons, and the arrivals at domestic ports increased by 29.5 tons to 67.8 tons [6]. - **Supply**: The weekly ferromanganese output increased by 0.2 tons to 17.2 tons, and the operating rate increased by 0.3 to 35.0% [6]. - **Demand**: The weekly ferromanganese demand decreased by 0.1 tons to 12.6 tons [6]. - **Inventory**: The manganese ore port inventory decreased by 13.5 tons to 407.0 tons [6].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250611
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-11 02:27
| 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [2011] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年6月11日 | | | 問敏波 | Z0010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前值 | 涨跌 | 其差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货(华东) | 3110 | 3110 | O | 140 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3200 | 3200 | 0 | 230 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3220 | 3220 | 0 | 250 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 2973 | 2980 | -7 | 137 | | | 螺纹钢10合约 | 2974 | 2981 | -7 | 136 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 2970 | 2979 | -d | 140 | | | 热卷现货(华东) | 3190 | 3200 | -10 | 105 | アロ/『屯 | | 热卷现货 (华北) | 3120 | 3120 | 0 | 35 | | | 热卷现货(华南) ...
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250610
Guang Fa Qi Huo· 2025-06-10 05:24
Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Reports Steel Industry - Steel mills' production remains high with a slight decline, but apparent demand continues to fall, and hot-rolled coil inventory starts to accumulate. Real demand decline is being realized, and the overall demand expectation is still weak due to the off - season and tariff impacts. It is recommended to look for opportunities to short on rebounds [1]. Iron Ore Industry - Global iron ore shipments are increasing, reaching a high level this year, and the arrival volume is also rising. The demand for molten iron is relatively stable, and the inventory is still in a destocking pattern. In the short - term, the price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the 09 contract should be treated with a bearish view in the medium - to - long term [4]. Coke Industry - The coke futures show a volatile trend with a divergence between futures and spot. The third round of price cuts for coke has been implemented, and there is an expectation of one more round of cuts. The supply is slightly reduced, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract at an appropriate time [5]. Coking Coal Industry - The coking coal futures are expected to rebound from the bottom, but the spot fundamentals are still bearish. The supply is relatively high, and the demand is weakening. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract at a high price [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry - The ferrosilicon production is increasing, and the supply pressure is rising during the off - season. The overall supply - demand situation has improved slightly. The ferromanganese supply pressure also exists, and the demand is weak. The cost side should focus on coal price changes [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products show small fluctuations. For example, the price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil in South China decreased by 10 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel billets remains unchanged, while the cost of some steel products has changed. The profit of hot - rolled coils in different regions has increased to varying degrees [1]. Production - The daily average molten iron output decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8. The production of five major steel products decreased by 0.5 to 880.4, and the rebar production decreased by 7.0 to 218.5, a significant decline of 3.1%. The hot - rolled coil production increased by 9.2 to 328.8, a 2.9% increase [1]. Inventory - The inventory of five major steel products decreased slightly by 1.8 to 1363.8, and the rebar inventory decreased by 10.6 to 570.5, a 1.8% decrease. The hot - rolled coil inventory increased by 7.8 to 340.6, a 2.4% increase [1]. Transaction and Demand - The building materials trading volume decreased by 0.2 to 10.2, a 1.8% decrease. The apparent demand for five major steel products decreased by 31.6 to 882.2, a 3.5% decrease [1]. Iron Ore Industry Iron Ore - Related Prices and Spreads - The warehouse receipt costs of various iron ore powders decreased, and the basis of the 09 contract for most iron ore powders decreased significantly [4]. Spot Prices and Price Indexes - The spot prices of iron ore in Rizhao Port decreased, while the prices of some iron ore indexes increased slightly [4]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume increased by 385.2 to 2536.5, a 17.9% increase, and the global shipment volume increased by 242.3 to 3431.0, a 7.6% increase [4]. Demand - The daily average molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8, and the 45 - port daily average ore - removal volume decreased by 12.7 to 314.0, a 3.9% decrease [4]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory decreased by 39.9 to 13826.69, a 0.3% decrease, and the inventory of imported ore in 247 steel mills decreased by 64.1 to 8690.2, a 0.7% decrease [4]. Coke Industry Coke - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, while the price of quasi - first - grade coke in Rizhao Port decreased by 10 yuan/ton [5]. Upstream Coking Coal Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The molten iron output of 247 steel mills decreased slightly by 0.1 to 241.8 [5]. Inventory - The total coke inventory increased by 3.5 to 987.0, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 15.6 to 127.0, a 14.0% increase, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 9.1 to 645.8, a 1.4% decrease [5]. Coking Coal Industry Coking Coal - Related Prices and Spreads - The price of coking coal in Shanxi remained unchanged, while the price of Mongolian coking coal decreased by 51 yuan/ton. The 09 contract price of coking coal increased slightly [5]. Overseas Coal Prices - The Australian Peak Downs coking coal arrival price decreased by 3.2 to 193 US dollars/ton [5]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 12.8 to 873.0, a 1.4% decrease, and the clean coal output decreased by 8.8 to 445.0, a 1.9% decrease [5]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.3 to 66.5, a 0.4% decrease, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills remained unchanged [5]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased slightly, the inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 27.4 to 818.9, a 3.2% decrease, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 15.9 to 770.9, a 2.0% decrease [5]. Ferrosilicon and Ferromanganese Industry Spot Prices and Spreads - The ferrosilicon主力合约 price increased by 70 to 5174, a 1.4% increase, and the ferromanganese主力合约 price increased by 14 to 5552, a 0.3% increase [6]. Cost and Profit - The production cost of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia decreased by 11.2 to 5619.8, a 0.2% decrease, and the production cost of ferromanganese in Guangxi increased slightly [6]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production increased by 1.2 to 9.7, a 14.6% increase, and the ferromanganese production remained relatively stable [6]. Demand - The weekly output of ferrosilicon - chromium products increased by 0.2 to 17.2, a 1.2% increase, and the procurement volume of Hebei Iron and Steel Group for ferromanganese increased slightly [6]. Inventory - The ferrosilicon inventory of 60 sample enterprises decreased by 0.7 to 6.8, a 9.8% decrease, and the inventory of 63 sample enterprises for ferromanganese increased slightly [6].