Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East during the late stage of the Kondratiev wave depression, highlighting the negative impact on the A-share market and suggesting a low position in both the main board and small-cap sectors [1][3][4]. Market Performance - Last week, the market adjusted as expected, with the CSI 300 index down by 0.45%, the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51%, and the CSI 500 index down by 1.75% [3]. - The overall market activity has significantly decreased, despite the banking sector showing strength, which slightly mitigated the decline in the main board [3][4]. Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. has intervened in attacks against Iran, while domestic data from China shows a continued decline in industrial production, indicating a negative outlook for the A-share market [3][4]. - Recent data from the National Bureau of Statistics revealed a significant drop in consumption, and industrial production continues to weaken, reflecting a divergence from the earlier market rally [3][4]. - U.S. retail data has also begun to weaken, confirming previous assessments of a temporary effect from "import grabbing" in the first quarter of the year [3][4]. Technical Analysis - Institutional capital flow has weakened, aligning with the fundamental outlook, and the market is expected to continue its downward trend due to the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East [4]. - The main board's timing perspective suggests maintaining a low position to avoid risks, while the small-cap sector, which had previously benefited from capital inflows, is also advised to maintain a low position due to weakening economic rebound logic [4]. Sector Focus - The short-term momentum model suggests focusing on the communication industry as a potential area of interest [4].

Group 1 - The second China-Central Asia Summit was held in Astana, with leaders from China and Central Asian countries discussing cooperation and future development [6][7][8] - President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of promoting the "China-Central Asia spirit" and building a community with a shared future [6][9] Group 2 - Multiple financial measures were announced to support high-level opening up, indicating a push for financial reforms and international cooperation [4][15] - The People's Bank of China and other regulatory bodies released initiatives aimed at enhancing financial market accessibility and stability [15] Group 3 - The national wheat harvest has reached 96% completion, marking the end of large-scale mechanized harvesting for this year's "Three Summer" season [3][14] - The rapid growth in green electricity trading, with a volume of 2209.45 billion kilowatt-hours in the first five months, reflects a significant increase of 49.2% year-on-year [18]

Core Viewpoint - The key to promoting the broader international use of the Renminbi is to provide a financial market environment with sufficient liquidity and comprehensive risk hedging tools for global Renminbi holders [1][5]. Group 1: Shanghai International Financial Center Development - Vice Premier He Lifeng emphasized the importance of implementing Xi Jinping's directives on accelerating the construction of Shanghai as an international financial center [1]. - The construction of the Shanghai International Financial Center has been a national strategy since the 14th National Congress of the Communist Party in 1992, receiving high attention from successive leaders [2]. - Shanghai has achieved significant progress in its international financial center construction, ranking third or fourth in global financial center rankings multiple times [2]. Group 2: International Economic and Financial Landscape - The current international situation is undergoing significant changes, with the post-World War II economic and financial order centered around the U.S. facing major transformations [3]. - The competition between major powers, particularly between China and the U.S., is entering a strategic stalemate phase, which may be prolonged [3]. - The U.S. dollar remains the dominant international currency, but concerns about its stability are growing due to the U.S. national debt and fiscal deficits [4]. Group 3: Renminbi Internationalization - Since the initiation of Renminbi cross-border trade settlement in July 2009, the internationalization of the Renminbi has made significant progress but has not yet achieved a breakthrough [5]. - The Renminbi's share in SWIFT settlements has stabilized around 4%, ranking between fourth and fifth [5]. - To promote broader international use of the Renminbi, it is essential to create a financial market environment that offers sufficient liquidity and risk hedging tools [5]. Group 4: Strategic Opportunities - Shanghai's international financial center construction has successfully seized opportunities presented by changes in the international economic and financial landscape over the past 30 years [6]. - The current situation presents a new opportunity for Shanghai to enhance its international influence [6].

Group 1 - The Chinese government emphasizes the importance of maintaining arable land and enhancing agricultural technology to ensure stable production of food and essential agricultural products [6][1] - The target for grain production this year is approximately 1.4 trillion jin, with significant measures being implemented to improve yield in major grain-producing regions [6][1] Group 2 - Market access in China has been further relaxed this year, expanding investment opportunities for private enterprises [2] - The logistics sector in China has shown resilience, maintaining steady growth in the first four months of the year [13] - The electronic information manufacturing industry has experienced a year-on-year increase of 11.3% in added value for the first four months [18] Group 3 - During the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, domestic travel increased by 5.7% year-on-year, indicating a boost in consumer spending [3][15] - The postal and express delivery industry handled over 1.5 billion packages during the holiday, marking a 19.4% increase compared to the previous year [16]

Group 1 - The logistics sector in China has shown resilient growth in the first four months of this year [7] - The telecommunications industry in China has maintained steady progress during the same period [8] - The electronic information manufacturing industry has seen a year-on-year increase of 11.3% in added value for the first four months [12] Group 2 - The holiday economy has continued to boost consumer activity, with over 1.5 billion express packages collected during the Dragon Boat Festival [10] - The value of tax refunds for outbound tourists in Shenzhen has increased by more than five times year-on-year during the holiday [14] - A total of 5.907 million people entered and exited the country during the Dragon Boat Festival [15]

Core Viewpoint - Hong Kong's Legislative Council has passed the Stablecoin Ordinance, establishing a licensing system for fiat-backed stablecoin issuers to enhance regulatory frameworks for virtual asset activities and promote financial innovation [2][8]. Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The Stablecoin Ordinance is expected to come into effect within the year, allowing the industry sufficient time to understand the licensing requirements [2][8]. - The licensing system includes transitional arrangements to help the industry comply with the new regulations [7][8]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority (HKMA) is developing a regulatory framework for stablecoin issuers due to the increasing interconnectivity between traditional finance and virtual asset markets [7][8]. Group 2: Industry Participation - Five institutions are participating in the first batch of stablecoin issuers, with three of them forming a joint venture to apply for a license to issue a stablecoin pegged to the Hong Kong dollar [4][5]. - The joint venture includes Standard Chartered Bank (Hong Kong), Animo Brands Limited, and Hong Kong Telecommunications, highlighting cross-industry collaboration [4][5]. - Other participants include JD Group's JD Blockchain Technology (Hong Kong) and Yuan Coin Innovation Technology, with plans to issue the HKDR stablecoin on the Ethereum platform [4][6]. Group 3: Strategic Goals and Applications - The joint venture aims to explore the role of stablecoins in financial and payment markets, with a focus on enhancing local and cross-border payment experiences [5][6]. - The stablecoin is seen as a mature use case within the Web 3.0 ecosystem, with potential applications in retail, corporate, and institutional sectors [5][6]. - JD Group plans to leverage stablecoin operations to support its global supply chain and cross-border payments, indicating a broader ambition for international reach [6].

Core Insights - The article highlights the significant increase in Chinese enterprises' mergers and acquisitions (M&A) in Japan, with a year-on-year growth of 604% in 2024, indicating Japan's unique appeal to Chinese investors [2][3]. Group 1: M&A Trends and Statistics - Chinese enterprises' M&A activities in Japan reached $4.1 billion in 2024, up from $0.6 billion in 2023, marking a 604% increase [3]. - Japan is the top destination for Chinese overseas M&A in 2024, surpassing other countries such as the UK and South Korea [3]. - The total investment from Chinese enterprises in Japan for 2024 is projected at ¥30,112 million, reflecting a growth rate of 33% [7]. Group 2: Industry Focus and Opportunities - Key sectors for Chinese investment in Japan include manufacturing, healthcare, real estate, services, and high-tech industries, which are seen as vital for enhancing domestic consumption and driving economic growth [8][23]. - The manufacturing sector faces risks related to stricter foreign investment regulations and product quality standards, necessitating compliance management [25][26]. - The healthcare sector must navigate stringent certification and operational integration challenges, particularly in maintaining relationships with key medical personnel [27][28]. - The renewable energy sector is subject to rigorous national security reviews and technical standards, requiring careful assessment of target companies [29][30]. - High-tech industries face risks associated with national security scrutiny and intellectual property protection, emphasizing the need for thorough due diligence [31][32]. Group 3: Risk Management Strategies - Companies are advised to establish compliance management systems to navigate Japan's foreign investment regulations effectively [26]. - In the healthcare sector, ensuring the retention of key medical staff through early communication and contractual agreements is crucial for operational stability [28]. - For renewable energy investments, implementing a mechanism to identify sensitive technologies and ensuring compliance with technical standards is essential [30]. - High-tech firms should conduct comprehensive intellectual property assessments and develop strategies to protect trade secrets during and after M&A transactions [32].

Investment Rating - The communication industry is rated as "Cautiously Optimistic" with a focus on operators with sustained profit growth and enhanced network value, optical communication companies benefiting from traffic growth, and high-quality enterprises with continuous technological innovation [5][41]. Core Viewpoints - The communication sector has shown steady growth in traditional businesses while actively exploring new growth points through innovative applications. Despite recent market adjustments, valuation levels are recovering [5][41]. - The integration of 5G-A (5.5G) and AI is highlighted as a core trend, with expectations for AI to further lead the communication industry towards 6G exploration. Chinese companies are positioned as key players in driving global communication industry development [4][40]. Summary by Sections Market Review - From March 10 to March 16, 2025, the communication sector (CITIC) increased by 0.21%, underperforming the CSI 300 index, which rose by 1.59%, resulting in a 1.37 percentage point lag [2][12]. - Year-to-date, the communication industry has risen by 3.6%, ranking 18th among CITIC's primary industries [12][13]. - As of March 14, the CITIC communication industry had a TTM PE of 22.88 times, positioned at the 26.67 percentile [14]. Industry News - The MWC 2025 showcased the integration of 5G-A and AI, emphasizing the importance of AI in future industry trends. The event attracted over 2,700 exhibitors and highlighted the deep integration of communication technology with various industries [3][36]. - The GSMA's annual report indicated that by the end of 2024, global mobile internet users would reach 4.7 billion, with projections of 5.5 billion by 2030 [3][36]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests maintaining a cautiously optimistic stance, focusing on operators with continuous profit growth, optical communication companies benefiting from traffic growth, and high-quality firms with strong core competitiveness [5][41].