Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content. 2. Core Viewpoints - No core viewpoints are explicitly stated in the provided reports. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of 5mm glass in different regions showed various changes. For example, the price of Wuhan Changli 5mm large - plate decreased by 60.0, while the price of Shaguo Great Wall 5mm large - plate increased by 13.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price increased from 954.0 on June 3 to 1006.0 on June 9, and FG01 contract price increased from 1014.0 to 1066.0 during the same period [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China coal - fired glass increased by 22.4 from June 3 to June 9, and the profit of North China natural gas glass increased by 22.0 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shaguo traders' glass price was around 1126 with average trading volume, and the transaction of Hubei's factory low - price glass was good [1]. - **Production and Sales Ratio**: The production - sales ratio in Shaguo was 97, in Hubei was 95, in East China was 93, and in South China was 100 [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From June 3 to June 9, 2025, the price of Shaguo heavy soda ash increased by 10.0, and the price of North China light soda ash increased by 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price increased from 1221.0 on June 3 to 1235.0 on June 9, and SA01 contract price increased from 1175.0 to 1193.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: The profit of North China ammonia - soda method decreased by 0.6, and the profit of North China combined - soda method decreased by 14.7 [1]. - **Spot and Industry Situation**: The spot price of heavy soda ash in Hebei delivery warehouse was around 1210, and the inventory in factory warehouses increased [1].

【玻璃纯碱（ 】 低位价格弹性大，市场情绪易波动 国贸期货 黑色金属研究中心 2025-06-09 黄志鸿 从业资格证号：F3051824 投资咨询证号：Z0015761 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 玻璃:供需双弱 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 产量下降。本周全国浮法玻璃日产量为15.68万吨，行业开工率为75.68%，比29日-0.34个百分点；产能利用率为78.14%，比29日-0.47个百分 | | | | | | 点。本周2条产线放水，1条产线点火，但点火产线暂无玻璃产出，整体来看供应量呈现下降趋势。下周1条产线存在冷修预期，2条产线计划点 | | | | | | 火，产量持稳为主。 | | | | 需求 | 偏空 | 需求预期走弱，淡季来临，需求或边际下滑。稳增长压力较大，中期地产颓势难挽，竣工数据同比延续下滑，后市需求担忧犹存。 ...

| | | | | | 玻璃纯碱早报 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 玻 璃 | | | 研究中心能化团队 | | | 2025/6/9 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 2025/5/30 | 2025/6/5 | | 2025/6/6 周度变化 日度变化 | | | 沙河安全 5mm大 板 | 1134.0 | 1121.0 | 1121.0 | -13.0 | 0.0 | FG09合约 | 982.0 | 963.0 | 997.0 | 15.0 | 34.0 | | 沙河长城 5mm大板 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1126.0 | 13.0 | 13.0 | FG01合约 | 1043.0 | 1018.0 | 1054.0 | 11.0 | 36.0 | | 沙河5mm大 板低价 | 1113.0 | 1113.0 | 1121.0 | 8.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Core Views Glass - Short - term: The glass market is expected to have a short - term rebound due to low valuation. The spot market has seen improved recent transactions, but the upcoming rainy season may have a short - term impact. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. Attention should be paid to the real - estate debt repayment peak in June and the suppression of the Hubei warehouse receipts on the market. The upside is limited, but so is the downside. - Long - term: The 09 contract, a peak - season contract, is priced at a large loss, indicating high future volatility. - Bullish factors: Policy support for real - estate acquisition, increased government financial support, enhanced expectations for the completion of pre - sold housing, low spot prices (below the 25% historical percentile), long - term losses of manufacturers, and peak - season expectations for the 09 contract. - Bearish factors: The real - estate market is unlikely to have a substantial improvement, and there is still significant inventory pressure in Hubei, and the trading sector depends on the real - estate market's continuous improvement [6]. 纯碱 - Short - term: The market is expected to rebound due to low valuation, but the spot price is difficult to increase, and the futures increase leads to a weakening basis, resulting in greater delivery pressure. - Medium - term: It is a volatile market. The core factors are high production and high inventory, with limited long - term shortage expectations. The cost collapse pressure is not fully reflected in the price. The expected production reduction in June is weak, but July or August may be the next maintenance peak. - Potential supporting factors: Low price difference between light and heavy soda, good exports this year, and high inventory concentration, but they need the improvement of the glass market to ferment [7]. Summary by Directory Glass: Supply - side Situation Introduction - Cold - repaired production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 8010 tons/day [10]. - Ignited production lines in 2025 have a total daily melting capacity of 9210 tons/day [11]. - Potential new ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 13000 tons/day, with some planned for 2025 and others with undetermined ignition times [13]. - Potential复产 ignition production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7830 tons, mainly concentrated in South and Southwest China [14]. - Potential cold - repaired production lines have a total daily melting capacity of 7850 tons/day, with various planned cold - repair times [16]. - The glass industry's production reduction space in the first half of the year is expected to be limited, with the current in - production capacity at around 156,000 tons/day, a peak of 178,000 tons/day in 2021, and a recent low of 148,000 - 150,000 tons/day [17][18]. Glass: Price and Profit - Recent transactions have slightly declined, with little overall change. The price in Shahe is around 1140 - 1180 yuan/ton, 1000 - 1100 yuan/ton in Hubei (some manufacturers reduced prices by 40 yuan/ton), and 1280 - 1400 yuan/ton in East China (some manufacturers reduced prices by 20 - 40 yuan/ton) [24][28]. - The futures market has rebounded, the basis is weak, and the month - spread is stable. The spot market is stable, and the month - spread has limited upside due to near - month warehouse receipts [30][33]. - The profit of glass production using petroleum coke as fuel is around - 111 yuan/ton, and that using natural gas and coal as fuel is between - 170 and 91 yuan/ton [34][38]. Glass: Inventory and Downstream Start - up - During the Dragon Boat Festival, weak market transactions led to an increase in inventory across the country. Large manufacturers have better order situations than small ones [41][43]. - The price difference between Central China and Jiangsu and Zhejiang has returned to normal and is widening, which is beneficial for inventory reduction in Hubei [47]. Photovoltaic Glass: Price, Profit, Capacity, and Inventory - Prices are falling, recent orders are slightly decreasing, glass manufacturers' shipments are average, and local inventory is increasing. The price of 2.0mm coated panels is around 12.5 yuan/square meter, a 3.85% month - on - month decline, and the 3.2mm coated panels are around 20.5 yuan/square meter, a 2.38% month - on - month decline [54][56]. - The market is gradually weakening, and it may enter a production - reduction cycle. Market transactions have slightly declined, and inventory has slightly increased, with the sample inventory days at about 29.72 days, a 1.94% month - on - month increase [57][63]. 纯碱: Supply and Maintenance - Maintenance of soda ash has almost reached its peak, and there may be less maintenance in June. The current capacity utilization rate is 80.8% (78.6% last week), and the weekly production of heavy soda ash is 382,200 tons [66][68]. - The inventory is around 1.627 million tons, with 79,000 tons of light soda ash and 837,000 tons of heavy soda ash [75]. 纯碱: Price and Profit - Prices in most regions remain unchanged. The nominal prices in Shahe and Hubei are around 1250 - 1350 yuan/ton [84][85]. - The basis is weak in the short term, and the spot market fluctuates within a narrow range. The market is influenced by the impact of delivery goods and maintenance. - The profit of the joint - alkali method in East China (excluding Shandong) is 178 yuan/ton, and that of the ammonia - alkali method in North China is 50 yuan/ton [90].

Report 1: Natural Rubber Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In the context of expected increase in supply and weakening demand, it is predicted that the subsequent rubber price will show a weakening and fluctuating trend. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the performance at the 13,000 level, as well as the raw material volume in the producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,350 yuan/ton on June 3 to 13,400 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.37% [1]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased from - 100 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 255 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 155.00% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 810 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 832 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 3.09% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased from 149.2 ten - tons to 105.7 ten - tons, a decrease of 43.5 ten - tons or 29.16% [1]. - In April, China's natural rubber production increased from 15.8 ten - tons to 58.1 ten - tons, an increase of 42.3 ten - tons [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased from 614,189 tons on the previous day to 614,584 tons, an increase of 385 tons or 0.06% [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased from 43,544 tons to 17,641 tons, a decrease of 25,903 tons or 59.49% [1]. Report 2: Glass and Soda Ash Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Glass: It will continue to be under pressure, fluctuate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is average, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. In the short - term, during the rainy season, the glass price may stop falling. For the 09 contract, a long - short spread trade between the 7th and 9th contracts can be considered, and short - term short - selling operations on the far - month contracts during rebounds are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The central China glass price decreased from 1,110 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 3.60% [2]. - The basis of the glass 2505 contract decreased from 91 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 31.87% [2]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The soda ash 2509 contract price increased from 1,185 yuan/ton to 1,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 3.28% [2]. - The basis of the 05 contract decreased from 197 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 13.97% [2]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output increased from 67.77 tons to 68.50 tons, an increase of 0.73 tons or 1.08% [2]. - Float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.67 tons to 15.77 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.64% [2]. Inventory - Soda ash 2505 contract inventory increased from 1,221 tons to 1,253 tons, an increase of 32 tons or 2.62% [2]. - Glass factory inventory decreased from 6,776.90 ten - thousand standard boxes to 6,776.20 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decrease of 0.7 ten - thousand standard boxes [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to high supply and high warehouse receipts in the fundamentals. Although demand may recover to some extent, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. However, rising raw material prices can strengthen cost support, and concentrated short - position closing may lead to a price increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon decreased from 8,200 yuan/ton on June 3 to 8,150 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.61% [3]. - The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 890 yuan/ton on June 3 to 980 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 10.11% [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased from 10 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 260 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton or 2700.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 tons to 30.08 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons or 12.10% [3]. - In April, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production decreased from 21.08 tons to 16.75 tons, a decrease of 4.33 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased from 18.74 tons to 19.01 tons, an increase of 0.27 tons or 1.44% [3]. - Social inventory increased from 58.20 tons to 58.90 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 1.20% [3]. Report 4: Polysilicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Currently, there is an expectation of supply - side contraction in the polysilicon industry. Attention should be paid to the support at the 33,000 - 34,000 range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of single - crystal PERC battery slices (182mm) decreased from 0.285 yuan/piece on June 3 to 0.275 yuan/piece on June 4, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece or 3.51% [4]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased from 2,140 yuan/ton on June 3 to 1,445 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton or 32.48% [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 895 yuan/ton or 2.02% [4]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased from 1,940 yuan/ton on June 3 to 2,935 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 51.29% [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased from 13.3 GW to 13.4 GW, an increase of 0.1 GW or 0.75% [4]. - In May, polysilicon production increased from 9.54 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons or 0.73% [4]. Inventory Change - Polysilicon inventory increased from 26.00 tons to 27.00 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons or 3.85% [4]. - Silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.95 GW to 18.57 GW, a decrease of 0.38 GW or 2.01% [4].

现货：沙河贸易商价格1105左右，成交一般，期现报价1140-1160，成交弱；湖北省内工厂低价1010左右，成交尚可；期现930-1000，成交一 般； 产销：沙河91，湖北116，华东97，华南112 | | | | | 纯 碱 | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 2025/5/28 | 2025/6/3 | 2025/6/4 | | 周度变化 日度变化 | | 沙河重碱 1260.0 | 1240.0 | 1260.0 | 0.0 | 20.0 | SA05合 约 | 1260.0 | 1221.0 | 1253.0 | -7.0 | 32.0 | | 华中重碱 1240.0 | 1200.0 | 1225.0 | -15.0 | 25.0 | SA01合约 | 1207.0 | 1175.0 | 1216.0 | 9.0 | 41.0 | | 华南重碱 1570.0 | 1 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - The supply pressure of soda ash remains high, and the demand may decline, leading to a slowdown in the de - stocking speed. The futures market has already reflected this. It is recommended to short the soda ash main contract after a rebound. - For glass, the supply may decrease in the future, and the demand is weak. After a short - term rebound, it is advisable to short the glass main contract. [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Soda ash main contract closing price: 1225 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan; glass main contract closing price: 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan. - Soda ash and glass price difference: 237 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - Soda ash main contract position: 1377454 lots, down 61412 lots; glass main contract position: 1444272 lots, down 117140 lots. - Soda ash top 20 net position: - 196915 lots, up 47021 lots; glass top 20 net position: - 206160 lots, up 5691 lots. - Soda ash exchange warehouse receipts: 2062 tons, unchanged; glass exchange warehouse receipts: 0 tons, unchanged. - Soda ash September - January contract spread: 10 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan; glass September - January contract spread: - 60 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan. - Soda ash basis: 50 yuan/ton, up 14 yuan; glass basis: 114 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan. [2] Spot Market - North China heavy soda ash: 1235 yuan/ton, unchanged; Central China heavy soda ash: 1350 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. - East China light soda ash: 1340 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan; Central China light soda ash: 1285 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. - Shahe glass sheets: 1068 yuan/ton, down 4 yuan; Central China glass sheets: 1070 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. [2] Industry Situation - Soda ash plant operating rate: 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points; float glass enterprise operating rate: 75.68%, up 0.34 percentage points. - Glass in - production capacity: 15.63 million tons/year, unchanged; glass in - production line number: 225, up 2. - Soda ash enterprise inventory: 162.43 tons, up 2.2 tons; glass enterprise inventory: 6766.2 ten - thousand weight boxes, down 10.7 ten - thousand weight boxes. [2] Downstream Situation - Real estate new construction area cumulative value: 17835.84 ten - thousand square meters, up 4839.38 ten - thousand square meters; real estate completion area cumulative value: 15647.85 ten - thousand square meters, up 2587.58 ten - thousand square meters. [2] Industry News - Wang Yi met with new US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns. - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI in May was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from April, falling below the critical point for the first time since last October. - Premier Li Qiang signed a State Council order to promulgate the Regulations on the Sharing of Government Affairs Data, which will come into force on August 1, 2025. - The All - China Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce called on enterprises to resist "involution - style" competition mainly in the form of "price war". [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The glass market shows different trends in prices and profits in various regions, with some prices declining and profit margins narrowing. The soda ash market also experiences price changes, and there is a significant reduction in factory inventories [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Glass - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, prices of most 5mm glass products in different regions decreased. For example, the price of Shahe Anquan 5mm large - board dropped from 1147.0 to 1121.0, a decrease of 26.0; Shahe Great Wall 5mm large - board decreased from 1126.0 to 1096.0, a decrease of 30.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: FG09 contract price decreased from 1031.0 to 954.0, a decrease of 77.0; FG01 contract price decreased from 1084.0 to 1014.0, a decrease of 70.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China coal - fired profit decreased from 243.3 to 221.6, a decrease of 21.7; North China natural gas profit decreased from - 241.7 to - 263.4, a decrease of 21.7 [1]. - **Spot and Sales**: Shahe traders' price is around 1105, with average trading volume; Hubei's factory low - price is around 1010, with acceptable trading volume. Sales rates in Shahe, Hubei, East China, and South China are 79, 138, 98, and 112 respectively [1]. Soda Ash - **Price Changes**: From May 27 to June 3, 2025, the price of Shahe heavy soda decreased from 1260.0 to 1240.0, a decrease of 20.0; Central China heavy soda decreased from 1240.0 to 1200.0, a decrease of 40.0 [1]. - **Contract Price Changes**: SA05 contract price decreased from 1268.0 to 1221.0, a decrease of 47.0; SA01 contract price decreased from 1212.0 to 1175.0, a decrease of 37.0 [1]. - **Profit Changes**: North China ammonia - soda profit decreased from - 87.6 to - 117.0, a decrease of 29.4; North China combined - soda profit decreased from 39.7 to - 1.2, a decrease of 40.8 [1]. - **Spot and Inventory**: The spot price of heavy soda in Hebei delivery warehouses is around 1210, and in Shahe warehouses is around 1230. Factory inventories have significantly decreased, and delivery inventories have slightly decreased [1].

Core Viewpoint - The domestic soda ash market is experiencing a slight downward trend in prices, with declines ranging from 10 to 130 yuan per ton, primarily due to weak downstream demand and increased supply from restored production facilities [2][3]. Price Trends - As of June 3, the price range for light soda ash in North China is 1290-1420 yuan/ton, while heavy soda ash is priced at 1370-1500 yuan/ton [2]. - The price index for light soda ash on June 3 is 1284.29, down 28.57 from the previous working day, a decrease of 2.18%. The heavy soda ash price index is 1342.86, down 2.86, a decline of 0.21% [3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The supply of soda ash has increased due to the normal operation of the Shilian Chemical soda ash facility, while downstream demand remains weak, leading to a subdued purchasing sentiment [2]. - The market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere, with actual transaction volumes falling short of expectations and limited new orders [2]. Futures Market - On June 3, the main contract for soda ash (SA2509) opened at 1185 yuan/ton and closed at the same price, reflecting a daily decline of 0.92%. The highest price during the day was 1190 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 1173 yuan/ton, with total open interest at 1,438,866 contracts, an increase of 17,164 contracts [5]. - The futures market continues to show a weak trend, driven by expectations of a weakening fundamental outlook, with supply pressures expected to persist due to new production capacities coming online [5]. Market Outlook - The industry is expected to see a slight increase in overall supply due to concurrent equipment maintenance and resumption of production. However, weak downstream demand and a lack of significant driving factors are anticipated to keep soda ash prices within a narrow fluctuation range in the short term [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - Glass investment view: bearish [3] - Soda ash investment view: oscillating [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Glass is facing a situation of weak supply and demand, with prices under pressure. Soda ash has acceptable current supply and demand, but the medium - term supply is expected to be loose [3][4] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Main Views and Strategy Overview Glass - Supply: bearish. Daily output is 157,700 tons, up 0.64% from the 22nd. Industry开工率 is 76.01%, up 0.68 ppts; capacity utilization is 78.62%, up 0.42 ppts. Supply is increasing this week but may decline next week [3] - Demand: bearish. Demand expectation weakens as the off - season approaches, but there is support from trade talks and policies. Mid - term real estate situation is poor [3] - Inventory: neutral. Enterprise inventory is 67.662 million heavy cases, down 0.16% month - on - month, up 14.06% year - on - year. Inventory days are 30.4 days, down 0.2 days [3] - Basis/spread: neutral. Basis strengthened this week; 09 - 01 spread oscillated [3] - Valuation: neutral. Price is at a low level, but cost support weakens [3] - Macro and policy: neutral. No macro impact for now [3] - Trading strategy: One - sided: short on rallies; Arbitrage: long soda ash and short glass [3] Soda Ash - Supply: neutral. This week's output is 685,000 tons, up 3.19% month - on - month. Supply is rising as maintenance resumes, but may decline later [4] - Demand: neutral. Direct demand is acceptable, but terminal demand is not ideal, with downstream purchasing on demand [4] - Inventory: neutral. Total factory inventory is 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% from Monday [4] - Basis/spread: neutral. Basis strengthened this week; 09 - 01 spread remained stable [4] - Valuation: neutral. Price center moves down, and cost support weakens [4] - Macro and policy: neutral. No macro driving force [4] - Trading strategy: One - sided: no position; Arbitrage: hold long soda ash and short glass, double - buy options [4] 2. Futures and Spot Market Review Glass - Futures price was weak, and spot price declined. The main contract closed at 982 (-18), and the Shahe spot price was 1072 (-12) [6] Soda Ash - Price oscillated downward. The main contract closed at 1199 (-54), and the Shahe spot price was 1243 (-78) [10] Spread/Basis - Soda ash 09 - 01 spread oscillated, and basis strengthened; Glass 09 - 01 spread oscillated, and basis strengthened [19] 3. Supply and Demand Fundamental Data Glass Supply - Output was stable. Daily output was 157,700 tons, up 0.64% from the 22nd. Two production lines restarted this week, and one started production. One line may undergo cold repair next week [22] - Production profit decreased. The weekly average profit of natural - gas - fueled glass was - 167.97 yuan/ton, down 7.14 yuan/ton [22] Glass Demand - Downstream deep - processing orders were weak. The average order days of deep - processing enterprises were 10.4 days, up 0.5% month - on - month, down 7.2% year - on - year [25] - Real estate mid - and back - end completion data was poor. From January to April, construction area decreased by 9.7% year - on - year, new construction area decreased by 23.8%, and completion area decreased by 16.9% [26] Soda Ash Supply - Output increased this week to 685,000 tons, up 3.19% month - on - month. But overall supply may decline later due to maintenance [31] - Alkali plant profit was acceptable. Ammonia - soda process profit was 67.20 yuan/ton, up 2.75% month - on - month; Dual - ton profit of the combined - soda process was 215 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan/ton [31] Soda Ash Demand - Direct demand was acceptable, with stable demand from float and photovoltaic sectors. But terminal demand was not good, and downstream purchased on demand [32] - Inventory increased. Total factory inventory was 1.6243 million tons, up 1.37% from Monday [32]