新华财经北京7月1日电据财政部1日下发的通知，3季度将发行57只各期限国债，其中关键期限18只（含 续发，下同），短期贴现债22只，储蓄国债6只，超长国债11只。 通知称，2025年第三季度关键期限国债、短期国债、储蓄国债、超长期特别国债发行有关安排执行中如 有变动，以届时国债发行文件为准。 | | | 2025年第三季度超长期特别国债发行安排 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 月份 | 期限 | 招标日期 | 首发/续发 | 付息方式 | | | 20 | 7月14日 | 首发 | 按半年付息 | | 7月 | 30 | 7月14日 | 首发 | 按半年付息 | | | 30 | 7月24日 | 续发 | 按半年付息 | | | 50 | 8月1日 | 续发 | 按半年付息 | | 8月 | 30 | 8月8日 | 续发 | 按半年付息 | | | 20 | 8月14日 | 续发 | 按半年付息 | | | 30 | 8月22日 | 首发 | 按半年付息 | | 9月 | 30 | 9月5日 | 续发 | 按半年付息 | | | 50 | 9月10日 | 续发 ...

证券研究报告·固定收益·固收深度报告 固收深度报告 20250701 2025 年 07 月 01 日 证券分析师 李勇 执业证书：S0600519040001 010-66573671 liyong@dwzq.com.cn 证券分析师 徐津晶 执业证书：S0600523110001 xujj@dwzq.com.cn 相关研究 《债券"科技板"见微知著：科创债 新政策下的金融机构发行观察》 债券"科技板"他山之石：我国与海外科创 债的机构持仓结构及策略有何异同？ 2025-06-09 《债券"科技板"见微知著：从案例 盘点看何种城投主体正在发行科创 债？》 2025-05-20 《债券"科技板"他山之石：从海外 经验看我国科创债市场建设（市场现 状篇）》 2025-05-14 《债券"科技板"他山之石：从海外 经验看我国科创债市场建设（发展历 程篇）》 2025-05-13 《债券"科技板"启航：一文读懂科 创类债券的前世今生》 2025-04-16 东吴证券研究所 1 / 21 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 [Table_Tag] [Table_Summary] ◼ 美国科创债持仓结构：1）从科创债的机 ...

欧洲垃圾债创纪录单月发行量达225亿欧元 金十数据7月1日讯，欧洲高收益债券市场在6月创下发行量新纪录，随着投资者持续涌入这一兼具吸引 力收益率和相对稳定性的资产类别，相关交易仍源源不断。机构汇编数据显示，上月企业共计发行225 亿欧元（约合266亿美元）垃圾级债券，较2021年6月创下的前纪录高出近40亿欧元。本月市场再添标志 性交易——由KKR集团支持的Flora Food Group BV周一完成近一年来首笔CCC评级债券定价，该评级属 于信用等级中的最低档之一。 ...

公募城投债中，江浙两省加权平均估值收益率均在 2.4%以下；收益率超过 4.5%的城投债出现在贵州地级市及区县级； 其余区域中，广西、云南、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，公募城投债收益率多有小幅上行。具体来看，上行 幅度较大的品种的包括 2-3 年四川省级非永续、3-5 年安徽省级非永续、1 年内贵州地级市非永续、1 年内河北省级永 续城投债等。 私募城投债中，上海、浙江、广东、福建等沿海省份的加权平均估值收益率在 2.8%以下；收益率高于 4%的品种出现 在贵州地级市、陕西地级市、云南地级市；其余的黑龙江、青海、甘肃等地的利差也较高。与上周相比，私募城投债 中各品种收益率以上行为主。具体来看，收益率上行幅度较大的有 3-5 年广西地级市非永续、1-2 年陕西区县级非永 续、1-2 年吉林地级市非永续、3-5 年辽宁地级市非永续城投债，分别对应上行 9.9BP、9.7BP、8.0BP 和 7.7BP。 产业债： 民企产业债和地产债估值收益率及利差整体高于其他品种。与上周相比，非金融非地产类产业债收益率多有调整，其 中 1-2 年民企私募非永续品种上行幅度相对更大，平均上行 9.7BP；地产债中，国企私募非 ...

Group 1 - Spot gold prices have risen for the second consecutive day, reaching $3338.48 per ounce with a 1.08% increase, driven by investor optimism regarding potential interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve later this year [1] - The U.S. Treasury market has experienced significant volatility, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping by 4.9 basis points to 4.234% and the 30-year yield decreasing by 5.5 basis points to 4.792%, reflecting market expectations for upcoming economic data and Fed easing policies [2] - The Federal Funds futures market indicates a 94% probability of a rate cut in September and a 21% chance in July, suggesting strong market sentiment towards monetary easing [2] Group 2 - The bond market's reaction to Trump's tax and spending bill has been relatively muted, but Senate deliberations on the bill may lead to further volatility, potentially increasing national debt and long-term yields, which could exert pressure on gold prices [2] - Short-term market conditions remain favorable for gold prices due to strong expectations for rate cuts and a weakening dollar [2] - Technical analysis indicates that gold prices are approaching upper resistance levels, with a significant trading range identified between 3555 and 3266, suggesting a potential strategy to wait for resistance points to short [3]

Market Overview - The U.S. stock market reached a historical high at the beginning of the year but entered a bear market in April due to proposed tariff increases, with the S&P 500 index dropping 20% from its peak [1] - Following the proposed tariff suspension, financial markets rebounded quickly, recovering all losses by mid-May, marking one of the fastest recoveries observed [1] Bond Market Dynamics - The U.S. bond market experienced significant volatility, particularly with a sharp sell-off of long-term U.S. Treasuries starting in April, raising concerns among investors [2] - The 10-year Treasury yield peaked at 4.79% on January 14 and dropped to a low of 4.01% by April 4, indicating substantial fluctuations in the bond market [2] - The 30-year Treasury bond mirrored the 10-year bond's performance until late May, when it reached a year-to-date high of 5.08% [4] Investment Opportunities - Current market conditions allow bond investors to achieve yields above inflation, making it an attractive environment for fixed-income investments [6] - Municipal bonds are highlighted as particularly appealing for high-tax-bracket clients due to better valuations compared to U.S. Treasuries and corporate bonds [6] Treasury Issuance and Debt Management - The U.S. Treasury is projected to issue over $10 trillion in bonds this year, a scale unprecedented in modern markets, with $12.2 trillion issued in the first five months of 2025, a 0.2% year-on-year increase [7] - As of June 30, the yield curve showed a significant drop in short-term yields, while long-term yields increased, indicating a market preference for shorter maturities [8][9] Fiscal Challenges - Approximately $9.2 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds are set to mature in 2025, representing about one-third of the total U.S. debt market, with a significant portion maturing before July [11] - The Treasury is increasing short-term bond issuance to manage cash flow and maintain liquidity, aiming to keep short-term bonds at around 20% of its portfolio [12] Future Outlook - Analysts expect the 10-year Treasury yield to stabilize between 4% and 5%, which is higher than the standards of the 2010s but still manageable if auction demand remains strong and inflation is controlled [12]

证券研究报告：固定收益报告 研究所 分析师:梁伟超 SAC 登记编号:S1340523070001 Email:liangweichao@cnpsec.com 研究助理:谢鹏 SAC 登记编号:S1340124010004 Email:xiepeng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《7 月利率会破新低么？——流动性周 报 20250629》 - 2025.06.30 固收周报 中长久期城投债流动性继续上升 ——流动性打分周报 20250630 ⚫ 核心解读 本周报以 qb 的债券资产流动性打分为基础，跟踪不同债券板块 个券的流动性得分情况。 城投债方面，分区域看，江苏、山东、四川高等级流动性债项均 有所增加，天津、重庆整体维持。分期限看，短久期和中长期债项流 动性均有所上升；其中 1 年以内和 1-2 年期高等级流动性债项有所增 加，2-3 年期有所减少，3-5 年期和 5 年期以上债项继续增加。从隐 含评级看，中高等级债项流动性增加，低等级债项流动性整体维持； 其中隐含评级为 AAA、AA+、AA、AA(2)的高等级流动性债项数量均有 所增加，隐含评级为 AA-的高等级流动性债项整体维持。 产业债方面 ...

英国十年期国债收益率下降约6个基点，至4.427%，为五月以来的最低水平。 ...

德国国债随其他债券上涨；10年期收益率下跌6个基点至2.55%。 ...

Group 1 - The yield on UK two-year government bonds fell by approximately 5 basis points to 3.772%, marking the lowest level since May [1]