1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report Protein Meal - South American soybeans' impact on the market is gradually weakening. Brazilian soybeans mainly affect the market through the trend of Brazilian basis. In June, the high - temperature weather in the US continues, with excessive rainfall in the east and significantly lower - than - normal rainfall in the western part of the Midwest, which may damage soybean growth. CBOT soybeans will fluctuate between 950 - 1150 before variables change and may rise if variables occur. In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [1][124]. Oils - In June, there is a high possibility that US soybean oil will oscillate and decline from a high level due to the uncertainty of the US biodiesel policy. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in May, and there is a high risk of a market decline in June. Domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation in June, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [2][125][126]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Part One: Market Review - In May, CBOT soybeans oscillated and closed higher. At the beginning of May, they showed a low - level oscillation trend. Later, positive factors such as the improvement of US soybean export prospects, the tightening of new - year supply, and the increase in US biodiesel blending ratio pushed up the price. Domestic soybean meal was significantly weaker than the external market. International oils showed differentiated trends, with US soybean oil reaching a high and then falling, and Malaysian palm oil oscillating downwards. Domestic oils followed international oils but did not break out of the previous oscillation range [4][5]. Part Two: Protein Meal - **Global Soybean Production Forecast**: USDA's May report shows that the global soybean production is expected to increase for the fourth consecutive year in the 25/26 season, with heavy supply pressure from South America. The supply pressure is most significant during the concentrated listing period of South American soybeans from May to June [9]. - **South American Soybean Situation**: Argentina was affected by rainfall during the harvest period, which may reduce production. Brazilian soybean production is a foregone conclusion, and its impact on the market is mainly reflected in the Brazilian basis. The decline of Brazilian basis may slow down in June and may stop falling and stabilize [10][15][19]. - **US Soybean Situation**: In the 25/26 season, US soybean supply is tight, with low tolerance for yield reduction. The planting progress in 2025 is ahead of schedule, but the weather may be characterized by "flood in the east and drought in the west", which may damage soybean growth. US soybean exports and crushing demand in the 25/26 season have great uncertainties. Before variables change, CBOT soybeans will oscillate between 950 - 1150 and may rise if variables occur [26][29][40]. - **Domestic Protein Meal Situation**: In June, domestic imported soybeans will arrive at ports intensively, oil mills will operate at a high level, and soybean meal inventory accumulation may accelerate, causing spot and basis prices to decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow the trend of US soybeans [64]. Part Three: Oils - **US Soybean Oil**: USDA estimates that the production and demand of US soybean oil will increase in the 25/26 season, but the market sentiment has changed from optimism to pessimism due to the uncertainty of the biodiesel policy. In June, US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level [66][69][74]. - **Malaysian Palm Oil**: Since March, Malaysian palm oil production has been increasing. In May, production may exceed demand, leading to inventory accumulation. In June, production may slightly decline, and exports may increase. The market has a high risk of decline and needs export demand and biodiesel policies to boost [75][79][84]. - **Canadian Rapeseed**: USDA estimates that the global rapeseed production will increase by 5% in the 25/26 season, and the supply will be better than that in the 24/25 season. Canadian rapeseed production is expected to increase by nearly 4%, but the inventory is still at a low level, with limited tolerance for yield reduction [90][93]. - **Domestic Oils**: In June, domestic oils have an obvious oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Domestic oil demand is weak, and the market may follow international oils. Lianpalmoil may continue to oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may be supported by policies and oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to continue to widen [123]. Part Four: Conclusions and Operational Suggestions - **Protein Meal**: South American soybeans' impact on the market is weakening. In June, US weather may affect soybean growth, and there are uncertainties in US soybean exports and crushing demand. CBOT soybeans will oscillate in a range and may rise if variables occur. Domestic soybean meal inventory may accumulate faster, and spot and basis prices may decline. Dalian soybean meal may follow US soybeans [124]. - **Oils**: US soybean oil may oscillate and decline from a high level in June. Malaysian palm oil has a high risk of decline. Domestic oils have an oversupply situation, with soybean oil inventory accumulating faster, and palm oil and rapeseed oil inventories remaining stable. Lianpalmoil may oscillate weakly, Zheng rapeseed oil may oscillate strongly, and the soybean - palm oil spread is expected to widen [125][126]. - **Operations**: For soybean meal, adopt low - level buying or selling put options. For palm oil, short at the upper limit of the range or sell call options. In arbitrage, go long on the soybean - palm oil spread and short on the oil - meal ratio [127][128][129].

Group 1 - The core point of the news is the significant reduction of tariffs on soybean imports between the US and China, with the US lowering tariffs from 145% to 30% and China from 125% to 10% [1] - China has ceased purchasing US soybeans and corn since mid-January, leading to a complete halt in imports from the US, while increasing purchases from Brazil, which has become the primary supplier [3][4] - Brazil's soybean production is at a record high, and the country has become the largest supplier of soybeans to China, accounting for over 70% of China's imports [8] Group 2 - The US soybean industry is facing challenges due to tariffs, with a significant drop in soybean imports to China, which fell to the lowest level since 2008, with March imports at 3.5 million tons, down 36.8% year-on-year [6] - The US is exploring new markets in India, Egypt, and Mexico, but establishing these alternatives may take one to two decades [6] - China's soybean import structure has changed dramatically, with Brazil now supplying more than 60% of the global trade and over 70% of China's imports, further eroding the US market share [8]

Core Viewpoint - The articles highlight the agricultural and rural development initiatives in Fuyang, Anhui, showcasing the integration of technology, brand development, and tourism to enhance local economies and promote sustainable practices. Group 1: Agricultural Innovation - Fuyang has achieved a grain production of over 100 billion jin for 17 consecutive years, positioning itself as a significant grain-producing region in China [2][3] - The establishment of agricultural technology innovation bases has led to high-yield practices, with some fields achieving yields exceeding 800 kg per mu [2][3] - The formation of the Tahe County Grain Growers Association has facilitated the sharing of agricultural techniques, benefiting over 300,000 mu of crops [3] Group 2: Brand Development - The Wada Tomato Valley in Fuyang has developed a specialized agricultural model, producing 18 million jin of fresh tomatoes annually, generating a revenue of 260 million yuan [4][5] - The company has invested over 41.43 million yuan to support rural economic development and has created over 1,500 jobs [4][5] - Fuyang is actively promoting local agricultural brands and has initiated applications for geographical indication products to enhance market recognition [5] Group 3: Rural Tourism Integration - The Chengye Camping Base in Fuyang has attracted 50,000 visitors during the May Day holiday, generating over 1 million yuan in revenue [1][6] - The base offers diverse activities, including camping and agricultural experiences, contributing to the local economy and promoting rural tourism [6] - The village's collective income has significantly increased from 370,000 yuan in 2018 to 1.57 million yuan in 2024, demonstrating the effectiveness of rural revitalization strategies [6][7] Group 4: Employment and Economic Growth - The introduction of food technology enterprises has created over 600 jobs for the local population, with annual wages nearing 10 million yuan [7] - The establishment of a fruit and vegetable processing industry park is expected to enhance local agricultural value chains and create further employment opportunities [7] - Fuyang's agricultural processing industry has reached a total output value of 264.5 billion yuan, ranking among the top in Anhui province [7]

期货热点追踪 相关链接 USDA干旱报告：美国大豆受干旱影响区域比例缩小，但中西部部分地区播种进展依旧缓慢，具体情况 如何？ ...

Core Insights - The rapid promotion and layout of e-commerce in rural areas are enhancing agricultural product sales channels, increasing farmers' income, and stimulating rural consumption [1] Group 1: E-commerce and Agricultural Products - E-commerce is expanding in rural areas, helping to connect farmers with broader markets and improve their income [1] - The "first mile" of agricultural product distribution remains a challenge due to inadequate logistics coverage in remote areas [1] - Live streaming has become a successful method for promoting local agricultural products, as demonstrated by the sales of fresh蕨麻 (fiddlehead fern) in Qinghai [3][6] Group 2: Logistics and Distribution Challenges - The logistics system in rural areas is still developing, with a significant imbalance between incoming and outgoing packages, particularly in Qinghai [6][8] - The local postal service is exploring "direct shipping from the production site" models to enhance the distribution of agricultural products [7] - The current logistics challenges include a low ratio of outgoing to incoming packages, which is reported to be over 1:10 in some areas [7][8] Group 3: Regional Initiatives and Success Stories - In Yunnan, the apple industry has seen significant growth, with over 90% of local farmers engaged in apple cultivation, and logistics improvements facilitating the distribution of apples nationwide [11][14] - The establishment of a "county, town, and village" logistics system in Yunnan has improved the efficiency of agricultural product distribution [13] - The local government and companies are implementing policies to support agricultural product logistics, resulting in a more balanced cost structure for shipping [13][14]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of rural revitalization and agricultural development in China, highlighting efforts to enhance productivity, improve living standards, and promote sustainable practices in various regions [7]. Group 1: Agricultural Development - Inner Mongolia's Alukerqin Banner is focusing on alfalfa cultivation, showcasing advancements in agricultural technology and practices [1]. - Hubei's Yunxi County is actively developing a cultural tourism industry chain, integrating agriculture with cultural and tourism sectors [3]. - Qinghai's Delingha City is utilizing collective land to develop a comprehensive rural economy, contributing to local income growth [5]. Group 2: Rural Revitalization - The article discusses the significant role of agriculture in providing employment for nearly 200 million people and housing for around 500 million farmers, underlining the sector's contribution to national food security [7]. - There is a concerted effort across various regions to enhance crop yields and quality, with a focus on local conditions to develop specialty industries [7]. - The "Light and Shadow China" photography team is documenting successful rural practices and resource utilization in regions like Inner Mongolia and Liaoning, showcasing progress in building livable and prosperous rural communities [7][8].

Core Points - The Argentine Minister of Economy announced the extension of tax exemptions on wheat and barley exports until March 31, 2026 [1] - The tax exemption does not apply to soybeans, corn, sunflowers, sorghum, or by-products [1] Summary by Category Economic Policy - The extension of tax exemptions aims to support the agricultural sector, particularly for wheat and barley exports [1] Agricultural Impact - The decision specifically excludes major crops such as soybeans, corn, and sunflowers, which may impact their export competitiveness [1]

棉花：新疆的棉花目标价格补贴政策保持稳定，棉农的种植积极性较高， 种植面积略有增加；而内地棉区由于比较效益低和机械化推广难度大等因 素，种植面积持续下降。在棉花播种和出苗期间，主要产区的气候条件良好， 预计单产为每公顷 2172 公斤（每亩 144.8 公斤），与去年持平。棉花总产 量预计为 625 万吨，比去年增加 1.4%。受美国过度征收关税的影响，棉花 消费预期偏弱，但未来仍存在一定的不确定性。预计新年度的棉花消费量为 740 万吨，较去年小幅减少 20 万吨，进口量也下调至 140 万吨，减少 10 万吨。短期观望。 信达期货有限公司 CINDAFUTURESCO.LTD 杭州市萧山区钱江世纪城天人大厦19-20楼 邮编：311200 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款 1 商品研究 | 走势评级: | 白糖 | 震荡 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 棉花- | 震荡 | 张秀峰—分析师 从业资格证号：F0289189 投资咨询证号：Z0011152 联系电话：0571-28132619 邮箱：zhangxiufeng@cindasc.com 期货研究报告 美农数据压制预期，棉价短线承压 ...

Group 1 - The event showcased nearly a hundred high-quality agricultural products from Beijing's suburbs, marking the first concentrated display at SKP-S mall [1] - The "Beijing优农" brand aims to bring fresh, high-quality agricultural products from Beijing to high-end markets, enhancing brand influence and consumer access [2][3] - The "Beijing优农" brand includes 174 recognized brand entities across 13 agricultural districts in Beijing, promoting local specialties like Daxing watermelon and Pinggu peach [3] Group 2 - Recent initiatives by Beijing's government focus on enhancing the agricultural industry chain, including the implementation of plans to improve agricultural technology and marketing services [4] - The city has cultivated 35 geographical indication agricultural products and over 500 green organic agricultural enterprises to meet consumer demand for fresh and safe agricultural products [4] - The SKP mall has established a dedicated section for organic vegetables, watermelons, cherries, and other seasonal products, with plans to expand the product range based on market feedback [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The report suggests short - term trading for both corn and corn starch. For corn, although the pressure on the import side has decreased due to the non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn, the expected increase in the US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season and concerns about long - term import pressure may restrict prices. In the domestic market, the situation varies by region, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year. For corn starch, the supply pressure has declined due to the decrease in the operating rate of enterprises, but the downstream demand is weak, and the inventory remains high [7][8][11][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary Corn - **Strategy**: Short - term trading [7] - **Market Review**: This week, the corn futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2335 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [8] - **Market Outlook**: The non - listing of Brazil's second - crop corn reduces import pressure, but the expected 18 billion bushels of US corn ending stocks in the 2025/26 season restricts prices. In the domestic market, the situation in the Northeast and North China - Huanghuai regions is different, and the spring sowing progress in some areas is slower than last year [8] Corn Starch - **Strategy**: Short - term participation [11] - **Market Review**: The Dalian corn starch futures fluctuated and declined. The closing price of the main 2507 contract was 2685 yuan/ton, a decrease of 53 yuan/ton compared to the previous week [12] - **Market Outlook**: The supply - demand situation of corn starch is weak, the operating rate of enterprises has decreased, the supply pressure has declined, but the downstream demand is poor, and the inventory remains high. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, with a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [12] 2. Futures and Spot Market Futures Price and Position Changes - The 7 - month contract of corn futures fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 1353678 lots, a decrease of 145730 lots compared to last week. The 7 - month contract of corn starch futures also fluctuated and closed lower, with a total position of 215408 lots, a decrease of 24779 lots compared to last week [18] Top Twenty Net Position Changes - This week, the net position of the top twenty in corn futures was - 124594, and last week it was - 176092, with a decrease in net short positions. For corn starch futures, the net position of the top twenty was - 3506, and last week it was - 9414, also with a decrease in net short positions [25] Futures Warehouse Receipts - The registered warehouse receipts of yellow corn were 201942 lots, and the registered warehouse receipts of corn starch were 26620 lots [31] Spot Price and Basis - As of May 16, 2025, the average spot price of corn was 2374.9 yuan/ton, and the basis between the active 7 - month contract of corn and the spot average price was 40 yuan/ton. The spot price of corn starch in Jilin was 2800 yuan/ton, and in Shandong it was 2880 yuan/ton, with relatively stable prices this week. The basis between the 7 - month contract of corn starch and the spot price in Changchun, Jilin was 115 yuan/ton [36][40] Futures Inter - month Spread - The 7 - 9 spread of corn was - 16 yuan/ton, at a medium level in the same period. The 7 - 9 spread of starch was - 72 yuan/ton, also at a medium level in the same period [46] Futures Spread between Starch and Corn - The spread between the 7 - month contract of starch and corn was 350 yuan/ton. As of this Thursday, the spread between Shandong corn and corn starch was 436 yuan/ton, an increase of 26 yuan/ton compared to last week [56] Substitute Spread - As of May 15, 2025, the average spot price of wheat was 2468.89 yuan/ton, and the average spot price of corn was 2374.31 yuan/ton, with a wheat - corn spread of 94.58 yuan/ton. In the 20th week of 2025, the average spread between tapioca starch and corn starch was 160 yuan/ton, narrowing by 30 yuan/ton compared to last week [61] 3. Industry Chain Situation Corn - **Supply Side** - As of May 9, 2025, the domestic trade corn inventory in Guangdong Port was 143.9 tons, a decrease of 6.40 tons compared to last week; the foreign trade inventory was 1.4 tons, a decrease of 2.10 tons compared to last week. The corn inventory in the four northern ports was 421.6 tons, a decrease of 4.3 tons week - on - week, and the shipping volume was 53.7 tons, a decrease of 26.00 tons week - on - week [50] - As of May 15, the national farmers' grain sales progress in 13 provinces was 97%, 3% faster than the same period last year, and the sales progress in 7 major producing provinces was 97%, 4% faster than the same period last year [65] - In March 2025, the total import volume of ordinary corn was 8.00 tons, a decrease of 163.00 tons (95.32%) compared to the same period last year, and the same as last month [69] - As of May 15, the average inventory of national feed enterprises was 35.20 days, an increase of 0.06 days compared to last week, a month - on - month increase of 0.17%, and a year - on - year increase of 16.67% [73] - **Demand Side** - As of the end of the first quarter of 2025, the pig inventory was 41731 million heads, a year - on - year increase of 2.2%, and the breeding sow inventory was 4039 million heads, a decrease of 27 million heads month - on - month [77] - As of May 9, 2025, the breeding profit of self - bred and self - raised pigs was 84.33 yuan/head, and the breeding profit of purchased piglets was 58.46 yuan/head [81] - As of May 15, 2025, the corn starch processing profit in Jilin was - 60 yuan/ton, and the corn alcohol processing profit in Henan was - 928 yuan/ton, in Jilin was - 568 yuan/ton, and in Heilongjiang was - 129 yuan/ton [85] Corn Starch - **Supply Side** - As of May 14, 2025, the total corn inventory of 96 major corn processing enterprises in 12 regions was 452.8 tons, a decrease of 8.45% [89] - From May 8 to May 14, 2025, the total national corn processing volume was 58.83 tons, a decrease of 4.84 tons compared to last week; the national corn starch output was 29.58 tons, a decrease of 2.97 tons compared to last week; the weekly operating rate was 57.17%, a decrease of 5.74% compared to last week. As of May 14, the total starch inventory of national corn starch enterprises was 142.1 tons, a decrease of 1.50 tons compared to last week, a weekly decrease of 1.04%, a monthly increase of 2.45%, and a year - on - year increase of 27.22% [93] 4. Option Market Analysis - As of May 15, the main 2507 contract of corn fluctuated and closed lower, with the corresponding option implied volatility at 9.73%, a decrease of 0.43% from 10.1% the previous week. This week, the implied volatility fluctuated and declined, at a relatively high level compared to the 20 - day, 40 - day, and 60 - day historical volatility [96] 5. Representative Enterprise - The report presents the PE(TTM) analysis of Beidahuang (600598.SH), including current value, standard deviation, percentile, etc. [97][98]