Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the new investment opportunities in the Hong Kong stock market amid China's asset revaluation, suggesting a "barbell strategy" for investors [1] - The Hong Kong stock market shows significant valuation advantages, with the Hang Seng Index's dividend yield at 3.04% and a forecasted price-to-earnings ratio of 11.19, lower than major global indices [1] - The AH share premium index is at a high level, indicating a valuation discount of 20%-30% for Hong Kong stocks compared to A-shares [1] Group 2 - For the "growth" side of the barbell strategy, the potential of Hong Kong growth stocks is being activated, supported by external factors like the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts and easing export restrictions on chips to China [2] - Internally, domestic policies are strongly encouraging the development of new productive forces, providing targeted support for AI and industrial robotics [2] - The new consumption, innovative pharmaceuticals, and technological innovation sectors are identified as having superior allocation potential, with AI driving changes in innovative drug development [2] Group 3 - The article notes that overseas funds are increasingly enthusiastic about Chinese assets, with an expected influx of over $140 billion if global active funds allocate to Chinese assets [3] - The momentum of southbound capital inflows into Hong Kong stocks remains strong, particularly in sectors like retail, pharmaceuticals, and media [3] - As China's economy recovers and the attractiveness of the Chinese market increases, the scale of capital inflows is expected to expand, providing long-term growth momentum for the stock market [3]

中国平安资产管理（香港）有限公司董事总经理、全球机构业务负责人黄家乐在2025湾区财富大会上表 示，在中国资产重估的背景下，港股市场正迎来新的投资机遇，她建议投资者采用"杠铃策略"进行布 局，一端配置高息股以求稳健，另一端配置成长股以博收益。 对于港股市场，黄家乐表示，港股的估值优势显著，截至10月底，恒生指数股息率达3.04%，预期市盈 率仅11.19倍，低于全球主要指数。同时，AH股溢价指数处于高位，意味着港股相对A股存在20%-30% 的估值折扣。 11月20日，2025湾区财富大会在深圳会展中心举办，大会由21世纪经济报道、深圳金博会运营发展有限 公司联合主办。 而对于新消费领域，黄家乐指出，消费观念转变正在带动港股"新"消费时代崛起。新消费品牌正通过文 化赋能与产品创新构建核心护城河，以抢占由新世代消费主力所推动的情绪消费、性价比消费（如潮 玩、茶饮、悦己）等新兴趋势，从而提升市场份额。 她强调，港股成长股的性价比凸显。截至10月底，恒生科技指数预期市盈率相对盈利增长率（PEG）为 0.85，估值低于盈利增长率，成长潜力可期。她特别看好由AI大模型等技术驱动的科技创新板块，认为 其正迎来价值重估的机 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent CPI and PPI data indicate a potential recovery in traditional consumption, with slight positive changes in both indices suggesting an improving economic environment [2][3]. CPI and PPI Analysis - In October, the CPI showed a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, compared to a previous value of -0.3%, and a month-on-month increase of 0.2%. The PPI, on the other hand, recorded a year-on-year decrease of -2.1%, an improvement from -2.3%, with a month-on-month increase of 0.1% [2]. - PPI serves as a leading indicator reflecting changes in the costs of upstream raw materials and intermediate goods, while CPI is a lagging indicator that reflects changes in the prices of consumer goods and services [2]. Economic Implications - A positive trend in PPI, especially if it turns positive on a month-on-month basis, indicates a recovery in industrial product prices and an improvement in corporate profit margins, which could lead to better financial reports for companies [2]. - Conversely, a negative CPI often signals deflation, while a positive CPI suggests inflation. Continuous positive month-on-month growth in CPI indicates a likely recovery in consumer demand [2]. Investment Opportunities - The slight positive changes in both PPI and CPI can be viewed as signals of economic improvement, with moderate inflation being beneficial for investors, potentially leading to increased corporate profits and stock price appreciation [3]. - The performance of the Shenwan Consumption Industry Index shows that the overall consumption sector has underperformed compared to the CSI 300 index, with some sub-sectors being relatively undervalued [4]. Sector Performance - As of November 7, 2025, the performance of various sectors is as follows: - CSI 300: +18.90% - Agriculture, Forestry, Animal Husbandry, and Fishery: +17.35% - Home Appliances: +7.23% - Food and Beverage: -6.05% - Textile and Apparel: +11.97% - Light Industry Manufacturing: +14.34% - Retail: +4.20% - Social Services: +9.12% [3][4]. Recommendations - It is suggested to consider tracking ETFs related to consumption, food and beverage, agriculture, and home appliances, as these sectors may experience growth in the near future [4].

Core Viewpoint - The article analyzes the performance of the A-share market in the last two months of each year over the past decade, highlighting that large-cap value and dividend styles tend to outperform, while small-cap and growth styles lag behind. Consumer and cyclical sectors show relatively better performance [1][7]. Market Performance Summary - In the last two months of each year, large-cap value and dividend styles have consistently outperformed small-cap and growth styles, indicating a trend in investor preference [7]. - The historical performance of major indices from 2015 to 2024 shows fluctuations, with significant gains in 2015 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index up 4.6%) and notable declines in 2023 (e.g., Shanghai Composite Index down 1.5%) [2]. Leading Industries Summary - Over the past decade, the leading industries in the last two months have included: - 2015: Comprehensive, Social Services, Real Estate, Electronics, Beauty Care [4] - 2016: Oil & Petrochemicals, Construction Decoration, Steel, Retail, Building Materials [4] - 2017: Food & Beverage, Oil & Petrochemicals, Home Appliances, Steel, Coal [4] - 2018: Electronics, Comprehensive, Food & Beverage, Agriculture, Beauty Care [4] - 2019: Building Materials, Non-ferrous Metals, Electronics, Media, Automotive [4] - 2020: Non-ferrous Metals, Social Services, Power Equipment, Food & Beverage, Defense [4] - 2021: Media, Light Industry Manufacturing, Communication, Environmental Protection, Building Materials [4] - 2022: Food & Beverage, Social Services, Beauty Care, Retail, Media [4] - 2023: Coal, Machinery, Media, Communication, Comprehensive [4] - 2024: Retail, Banking, Comprehensive, Textile & Apparel, Oil & Petrochemicals [4] Investment Strategy Insights - Various institutions suggest strategies for the year-end market, emphasizing the importance of focusing on low-value sectors and potential rebounds in banking and non-bank financials. They recommend monitoring sectors like battery, photovoltaic equipment, energy metals, and chemical products for investment opportunities [8][9]. - The article suggests a balanced investment approach, combining dividend and technology strategies to optimize asset allocation while avoiding frequent trading to minimize costs and risks [9].

Market Overview - On November 19, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.18%, the CSI 300 increased by 0.44%, the STAR Market 50 fell by 0.97%, the CSI 1000 decreased by 0.82%, the ChiNext Index rose by 0.25%, and the Hang Seng Index dropped by 0.38% [3][4] - The best-performing sectors on November 19 were non-ferrous metals (+2.39%), oil and petrochemicals (+1.67%), defense and military (+1.11%), beauty and personal care (+1.09%), and banking (+0.92%). The worst-performing sectors were comprehensive (-3.08%), real estate (-2.09%), media (-1.72%), building materials (-1.71%), and retail (-1.7%) [3][4] - The total trading volume for the A-share market on November 19 was 17,426.66 billion yuan, with a net inflow of 6.591 billion Hong Kong dollars from southbound funds [3][4] Important Insights Macroeconomic Analysis - In October 2025, the growth rate of fiscal expenditure slowed down due to a combination of factors: a phase of retreat following a preemptive fiscal push earlier in the year and a high base effect from the previous year [5] - The Ministry of Finance reported that fiscal policy implementation fell short of expectations, with hidden debts increasing beyond expectations [5] Strategic Research - The market outlook suggests a "systematic slow bull" phase, indicating a slower and more systematic market movement [6] - Inflation is expected to return, with a focus on cyclical sectors before consumer sectors in 2026 [6] - The market remains neutrally optimistic, considering various factors such as international conditions, economic cycles, domestic policies, capital flows, market sentiment, and broad valuations [6] - The Shanghai Composite Index is anticipated to experience a gradual upward trend, with fluctuations expected between the high point in February 2021 and the 0.809 quantile of the range from 5,178 to 2,440 [6]

Core Insights - The Hong Kong stock market is becoming a crucial platform for global investors to share in the growth dividends of China's core assets, with significant inflows of southbound capital [1][12] - As of November 10, southbound capital's cumulative net purchases of Hong Kong stocks exceeded 5 trillion HKD, continuing to grow [1] - The influx of long-term mainland funds, primarily from insurance and public offerings, is expected to support a "slow bull" market in Hong Kong [1][8] Southbound Capital Inflows - As of November 19, southbound capital net inflows through the Stock Connect reached 65.91 million HKD, bringing the total for the year to over 1.34 trillion HKD, a 66% increase compared to the total inflow of 807.8 billion HKD in 2024 [2] - Cumulative net inflows since the launch of the Stock Connect have surpassed 5 trillion HKD [2][3] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital has become a core driver of liquidity in the Hong Kong stock market, with its share of total market turnover rising from 15.6% at the beginning of 2024 to 23.6% by the third quarter of 2025 [3] - The total market value of southbound capital holdings exceeded 6.3 trillion HKD by the end of the third quarter, representing a year-on-year increase of over 90% [3] Sector and Stock Preferences - The allocation of southbound capital has shifted significantly, with the banking sector previously dominating but now more evenly distributed across industries, including media, pharmaceuticals, and technology [3][4] - The top ten holdings of southbound capital are now characterized by a "technology + dividend" strategy, with Tencent Holdings and Alibaba being major beneficiaries [4] Fund Composition - Insurance funds and public funds constitute the majority of southbound capital, with insurance holdings surpassing 1 trillion RMB (approximately 1.4 trillion HKD) by the end of the third quarter [7] - Public fund holdings reached 1.01 trillion RMB, accounting for about 18% of total southbound capital [7] Future Projections - Predictions indicate that southbound capital could see an additional inflow of 1.4 trillion RMB (approximately 1.54 trillion HKD) by the end of next year, with a potential total increase of 10 trillion RMB (approximately 11 trillion HKD) over the next five years [8] - The continuous inflow of long-term capital is expected to enhance market fundamentals and support a "slow bull" market [8][9] Market Valuation and Asset Supply - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as having significant allocation value, with lower valuation levels compared to other major global markets [11] - The influx of quality companies listing in Hong Kong is creating a virtuous cycle, enhancing market liquidity and attracting more capital [12][13] Historical Context - Historical analysis indicates that periods of outperformance in the Hong Kong stock market have been driven by the scarcity of assets, with current trends reflecting similar dynamics as seen in previous advantageous periods [14]

Group 1: Lithium Battery Industry - The supply-demand dynamics for lithium carbonate are expected to improve significantly next year due to rising energy storage demand, shifting from previous surplus expectations to a more balanced outlook, which is anticipated to enhance equity performance in the sector [5] - Rongjie Co., Ltd. has established a comprehensive layout in the upstream lithium battery supply chain, including lithium mining, lithium salt, and anode/cathode materials, with a current lithium salt production capacity of 24,800 tons per year, primarily supplying major clients like BYD [6] - In the first half of the year, Rongjie Co., Ltd. reported a 150% year-on-year increase in lithium concentrate production and a 51.87% increase in revenue, with mining capacity of 1.05 million tons per year and a planned expansion of 350,000 tons per year in selection capacity to support performance growth [6][8] Group 2: Beauty Industry - The National Medical Products Administration released new guidelines to enhance the regulation of cosmetics, promoting innovation and facilitating the registration of new functional cosmetics [12] - The launch of the Qianwen App by Alibaba signifies a strong push into consumer applications, which may create monetization opportunities within the Alibaba ecosystem, particularly benefiting AI and beauty concept companies like Liren Lizhuang, which saw a stock surge [13][14] Group 3: Organic Silicon Industry - Following a recent meeting, organic silicon manufacturers have resumed quoting DMC prices, increasing them to 13,200 yuan per ton, reflecting a rise of approximately 200 yuan per ton since the meeting began [15] - The organic silicon sector is experiencing a short-term rebound driven by industry "anti-involution," with long-term supply constraints and sustained demand growth in emerging fields expected to support industry profitability recovery [15][16] Group 4: Defense Industry - The defense and military sector is anticipated to enter a dual turning point in 2025, transitioning from a phase of revenue growth without profit to a high-quality development stage driven by order fulfillment and performance [17] - Tianhe Defense has positioned itself in the low-altitude defense segment, which is crucial for national defense, with its portable air defense missile command system addressing key pain points in this area, supported by favorable policies that are expected to accelerate order recovery in the military industry [18][19]

市 场 研 究 · 一 周 市 场 回 顾 · 证 券 研 究 报 告 一周市场回顾 （2025.11.10—2025.11.14） A 股市场： 融资融券： 请务必阅读报告正文后各项声明 1 / 7 2025 年 11 月 19 日 一周市场回顾 证券研究报告-一周市场回顾 分析师：马遥识途 资格证书：S1330524050001 联系邮箱：mayst@hxzb.cn 联系电话：15201282186 相关研究 一 周 市 场 回 顾 （ 2025.11.03 — 2025.11.07） 2025.11.14 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.10.27 — 2025.10.31） 2025.11.03 一周市场回顾 （ 2025.10.20 — 2025.10.24） 2025.10.27 ◼ 本周 A 股上证指数下跌 0.18%，收于 3990.49 点，深证成指下跌 1.40%，收于 13216.03 点，创业板指下跌 3.01%，收于 3111.51 点。 价值风格类板块代表指数上证 50、中证 100、沪深 300 分别上涨 0.00%、下跌 0.80%、下跌 1.08%，成长风格类板块代表指数中小 1 ...

Group 1 - On November 18, a total of 31 companies were investigated by institutions, with 17 companies being surveyed by funds, highlighting a significant interest in Nanya New Materials, Wangbian Electric, and Agricultural Products [1] - Nanya New Materials attracted the most attention, with 10 funds participating in its survey, while Wangbian Electric and Agricultural Products had 7 and 4 funds involved, respectively [1] - The surveyed companies included 6 from the Shenzhen Main Board, 9 from the ChiNext, 1 from the Shanghai Main Board, and 1 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, covering 10 different industries, with the electronics and automotive sectors having the most companies represented [1] Group 2 - Among the surveyed companies, only one had a total market capitalization exceeding 50 billion yuan, while 8 companies had market capitalizations below 10 billion yuan, including Shifeng Culture, Guoan Da, and Wangbian Electric [1] - In terms of market performance, 6 of the surveyed stocks increased in value over the past 5 days, with Agricultural Products, Guoan Da, and Shifeng Culture showing the highest gains of 13.84%, 6.81%, and 6.16%, respectively [1] - Conversely, 11 stocks experienced declines, with Wangbian Electric, Xin Henghui, and Hunan YN showing the largest drops of 7.19%, 6.27%, and 6.01%, respectively [1] Group 3 - Among the surveyed stocks, 5 experienced net capital inflows over the past 5 days, with Hualan Co. seeing the highest net inflow of 32.76 million yuan, followed by Agricultural Products and Shifeng Culture with inflows of 8.70 million yuan and 6.81 million yuan, respectively [2] - Only one company among the surveyed firms released an annual performance forecast, indicating a profit increase, with Xin Henghui expected to report a net profit of 195 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 4.66% [2]

Macro Strategy - In 2026, the narrow deficit is expected to reach 5.94 trillion yuan, an increase of approximately 276.5 billion yuan year-on-year, while the broad deficit is projected to be 14.54 trillion yuan, up about 167 billion yuan year-on-year, with a broad deficit rate of approximately 9.8%, a slight decrease of 0.4 percentage points [1][13] - The total fiscal expenditure in 2026 is anticipated to be 43.54 trillion yuan, growing by 3.2% year-on-year, which is a slowdown compared to the previous year's growth rate [1][13] Foreign Trade - China's exports are expected to maintain strong resilience in 2026, with an annual growth rate of around 3%-4%, compared to an estimated 4.5%-5% in 2025 [2][14][15] - The impact of tariffs on exports is expected to ease, with the likelihood of large-scale tariff increases from the U.S. being relatively low [2][15] Industry Analysis - The 2025 Double Eleven sales event saw total e-commerce sales reach approximately 16,950 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14.2%, with comprehensive e-commerce platforms accounting for 16,191 billion yuan, up 12.3% year-on-year [6] - The coal industry is projected to experience a weak equilibrium in supply and demand, leading to fluctuating coal prices in the first half of 2026, with a focus on high-dividend investment logic [7][8] Company Insights - Leap Motor's Q3 performance maintained positive profitability, with revised net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 700 million, 3.3 billion, and 6.8 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 103, 21, and 11 times [9] - Geely's Q3 results met expectations, with an upward revision of the 2025 net profit forecast to 18.1 billion yuan, while the 2026 and 2027 forecasts were adjusted downwards to 19.5 billion and 27.2 billion yuan respectively [11] - Tencent's overall performance exceeded expectations, with adjusted net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 being 255.5 billion, 285.8 billion, and 318.2 billion yuan, maintaining a "buy" rating [12]