作 者徐行 编辑袁畅 在国泰君安和海通证券合并以后，国泰海通已经成为业内最大的券商之一，也拥有了业内最为庞大的研究体系。 2025 年 8 月 1 日，国泰海通研究所再次精英尽出发表了一系列研究观点。而其中国泰海通策略首席方奕的演讲尤为引人关注。他在上半年就比较精准的 预测了 A 股市场的企稳回升的走势，在这个关键市场当口，他又会有什么最新判断？ A 股和港股还会继续有所表现么？哪些资产机会更多？ 我们实录了他的部分观点，以飨读者（后续整理以第一人称，有少许删节）。 金句： 1、中国市场在下半年还有新高，无论是上证指数，还是香港的恒生指数和恒生科技指数。 2、过去几年股市表现不好，一个非常重要的原因是无风险收益率过高。但今天，中国家庭正面临新一轮无风险收益率的趋势性降低。 3、在2014年到2015年，2019年到2021年这几个中国股市比较好的几个年份，驱动行情的正是无风险收益率的降低，前者是信托打破刚兑，后者是资管 新规实施。 5、 2011 年的美国，它的长期国债收益一样也跌破 2% 。美国长期国债收益率跌破 2% 以后，美国债券规模在 2021 年后出现了下降。同时，美国股市 上升的斜率变得更加陡峭。 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 High-Quality Consumption Brand TOP 100 Innovation Ecological Conference" was held in Shanghai, focusing on eight major tracks and 28 sub-fields, highlighting the importance of enhancing the quality and expansion of the Chinese consumer market [2][5] - The conference emphasized the need for new supply to create new demand, aligning with the central government's goal to boost consumption and expand domestic demand [4][5] - The report released at the conference identified four major trends in high-quality consumption brands: health consciousness driving wellness and sports consumption, AI-driven product and service upgrades, novel experiences igniting consumer enthusiasm, and emotional value unlocking new consumption scenarios [12][13] Group 2 - The report highlighted the rise of experience economy, with travel-related experiences becoming increasingly popular, such as "traveling with concerts" and "visiting iconic stores" [12] - The report also noted that over 80% of companies are affected by tariffs but are adapting through strategic adjustments, with over 60% opting for market diversification strategies [13] - AI applications are transitioning from cost-reduction tools to significant transformative forces in consumer products, with nearly 90% of surveyed companies believing AI will bring major changes [13] Group 3 - The conference featured discussions on how brands can navigate economic cycles, with insights on the importance of digital transformation and understanding consumer emotional values [19][20] - The "2025 High-Quality Consumption Brand TOP 100" list was officially announced, along with awards for various categories such as "Top Ten High-Quality Brands" and "Top Ten Consumption Technology Innovation Brands" [21][23] - Notable brands recognized included L'Oréal China, MUJI, and Starbucks China, reflecting the diverse landscape of high-quality consumer brands in China [23]