"十五五"规划建议点击 "以新需求引领新供给，以新供给创造新需求，促进消费和投资、供给和需求良性互动，增强国内 大循环内生动力和可靠性" ●只有促进供给和需求良性互动，实现供需动态平衡，才能为构建新发展格局、推动高质量发展 提供扎实基础 促进供需良性互动具有必要性 ●通过新需求引领新供给和新供给创造新需求的动态循环，实现供需更高水平的平衡 ●构建供需良性互动实践路径：坚持投资于物和投资于人紧密结合，筑牢供需良性互动根基；提 振消费，激活内需增长潜力；打通循环堵点，完善供需对接保障机制；强化城乡区域协调发展， 拓展供需良性互动空间维度 习近平总书记强调："供给和需求是市场经济内在关系的两个基本方面，是既对立又统一的辩证关 系。"只有促进供给和需求良性互动，实现供需动态平衡，才能为构建新发展格局、推动高质量发 展提供扎实基础。 □吴文 当前，中国经济的发展重点是从"有没有"转向"好不好"，旧供给难以匹配新需求，我们必须以需 求牵引供给变革。与此同时，外部环境更趋复杂严峻，单边主义、保护主义抬头，霸权主义和强 权政治威胁上升，国际经济贸易秩序遇到严峻挑战，过度依赖外部循环必然存在更大的风险，我 们必须强化内循环，通 ...

2026年是"十五五"规划的开局之年，站在中国经济转型升级的关键节点，如何为未来五年谋篇布局、凝聚共识？新的一年，中国经济将呈现怎样的新图 景？产业格局又会迎来哪些确定性趋势？ 新年开局，《产联会客厅》推出《预见2026》专题，我们将对话多位财经学者与市场观察家，力图穿越短期波动与市场噪音，共同探寻中国经济的深层脉 动、产业跃迁的清晰轨迹与未来发展的确定性。 文 | 郑青春 本期对话中国民营经济研究会副会长、万博新经济研究院院长滕泰。滕泰认为，当前中国经济的核心挑战在于内需不足，其直接表现为房地产低迷、民间 投资下滑与居民消费乏力。解决问题的关键在于国民收入支出结构的转变，必须通过财政与收入结构的双重改革来提振消费：一方面，将无效低效投资转 向居民收入补贴，以及划转更多国有股来补充社保基金；另一方面，通过更加宽松的货币政策提高资本市场投资回报，来替代房地产的财富效应，从根本 上提升居民的消费能力和意愿。 面向未来，经济增长需要依靠"新供给创造新需求"的逻辑。滕泰表示，以人工智能为代表的新兴产业不仅能成为新的产业支柱，更将深刻重塑各行业与生 活方式，创造全新消费场景。同时，一个健康发展的资本市场有望接替房地产过 ...

11月下旬以来，全球股市波动加大，港股市场的调整尤为突出。 不过，港股2025年内的表现依然"抗打"。截至12月19日，恒生指数、恒生科技指数、恒生中国企业指数自今年以来分别上涨了28.07%、 22.63%、22.10%，跑赢标普500、德国DAX等全球主要市场指数。 展望2026年，买方与卖方机构均对港股走势作出乐观预期。多家机构认为，在流动性改善、企业盈利修复等多重因素推动下，港股有望延续升 势，行情驱动逻辑或从估值修复转向盈利增长。 那么，下一阶段的稀缺资产在何处？投资者又该遵循何种配置思路？ 盈利修复是关键 东吴证券海外策略团队认为，2026年，港股会继续回升。 这一判断主要基于以下理由：第一，预计2026年美联储会继续降息。第二，港股市场对双边关系不确定性的担忧有望缓解。第三，2026年，国 内货币+财政同步深化"逆周期+跨周期"。第四，企业盈利有进一步改善的空间。第五，在"赚钱效应"下，2026年南向资金有望持续流入。第 六，海外资金有望"锦上添花"。 "尽管我们看好明年港股行情，但仍建议杠铃配置策略。"东吴证券海外策略团队表示，配置港股的思路应该从自下而上视角出发，选择独特资 产，即挑选全球产 ...

Macroeconomic Insights - China's industrial added value in November increased by 4.8% year-on-year, below the expected 5% and previous value of 4.9% [5] - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) in China decreased by 2.6% year-on-year from January to November, compared to a decline of 1.7% previously [5] - Retail sales of consumer goods in November grew by 1.3% year-on-year, falling short of the expected 2.9% and previous value of 2.9% [5] - The economic data for November indicates a significant decline in consumption and investment, with a notable increase in the decline of real estate investment, highlighting persistent issues of insufficient domestic demand [5] Equity Market Analysis - A-shares exhibited a shrinking adjustment trend due to key technical levels and a convergence of short-term risk appetite, with the ChiNext index showing a relative weakness, down by 1.77% [6] - The trading volume in the two markets significantly decreased, with a reduction of over 300 billion yuan in a single day [6] - The three major indices are currently operating below the 5-day moving average, indicating that the market remains in a phase of consolidation [6] - Despite overall pressure on indices, structural opportunities within the market remain active, particularly in the commercial aerospace sector and consumer sectors, which have attracted capital attention [6] Consumer Sector Insights - The core investment logic behind the notice on enhancing business and financial collaboration to boost consumption lies in the understanding that "new supply creates new demand" [6] - Investment opportunities are found in innovations on the supply side that leverage new technologies, create new scenarios, and meet new consumer sentiments [6] - The introduction of policies is expected to further optimize the development environment for new consumption, significantly impacting market confidence, stimulating corporate innovation, and unleashing economic growth potential [6] Alcohol Industry Focus - Kweichow Moutai's recent volume control policy is viewed as a short-term price defense and confidence restoration strategy, aimed at gaining time for deeper structural reforms [7] - In the long term, this policy represents a proactive shift in the industry from relying on "volume and price increases" for growth to a more refined management approach focusing on "brand resilience," "channel health," and "real consumption foundation" [7]

Core Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 in Beijing outlined key tasks for China's economic work in 2026, emphasizing the importance of maintaining confidence and leveraging advantages to address challenges [1][9] Economic Work Focus Areas - **Domestic Demand**: Emphasis on building a strong domestic market through consumption initiatives, income increase plans, and investment stabilization [1][11] - **Innovation Drive**: Focus on fostering new growth drivers by enhancing education, technology, and talent development, and establishing international innovation centers [1][11] - **Reform and High-Quality Development**: Commitment to deepening reforms, including a unified market construction and addressing competitive practices [2][11] - **Opening Up**: Promotion of multi-field cooperation and gradual expansion of service sector openness, along with enhancing foreign investment mechanisms [2][11] - **Coordinated Development**: Efforts to promote urban-rural integration and regional collaboration, ensuring stable prices for essential agricultural products [2][11] - **Green Transition**: Initiatives aimed at energy efficiency and carbon reduction across key industries [2][11] - **Public Welfare**: Focus on improving people's livelihoods through job stability and healthcare reforms [3][11] - **Risk Management**: Strategies to stabilize the real estate market and manage local government debt risks [3][11] Market Opportunities - **Technology and Manufacturing Exports**: Attention on sectors like semiconductor equipment, AI, and robotics, as well as traditional manufacturing exports [6][14] - **Supply Optimization**: Focus on industries with resource constraints and potential price increases, alongside sectors benefiting from policy adjustments [6][14] - **Consumer and Service Sector Upgrades**: Anticipation of a positive macroeconomic policy environment boosting consumer sectors, particularly in retail and food and beverage [6][14]

来源：格隆汇APP 作为全市场独家品种——香港证券ETF跟踪中证香港证券投资主题指数，成份股仅16只，包括中信证 券、香港交易所、国泰海通、中国银河、华泰证券、中金公司、国泰君安国际等龙头公司。 港股通非银ETF是全市场唯一跟踪中证港股通非银行金融主题指数的ETF，不受QDII额度限制，其成份 股为"69%保险+13%港交所+14%券商"，是全市场保险含量最高的ETF标的指数。 建银国际认为，尽管港股估值修复已基本到位，但港股投资逻辑已由传统的估值修复转变为基于新质生 产力和高质量发展的估值重估，2026年估值和盈利均有温和扩张或改善的空间2026年上半年港股有条件 再创新高，主要催化剂和事件窗口包括：市场对十五五开局中国经济增长动能、人民币汇率、物价走势 和企业盈利前景的再评估；十五五规划纲要相关文件出炉将为行业和主题投资提供更清晰的指引；12月 中旬中央经济工作会议、一季度地方及中央两会等将是重要的增量政策观察窗口；特朗普访华及中期选 举前后中美关系的变化；美联储降息的节奏及力度；重大技术突破、龙头科技股的资本开支进展及AI 相关业务盈利状况。美联储后续降息路径及节奏仍存高度不确定性，但市场边际宽松预期大 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional investment-driven growth model in China is unsustainable and a shift towards a consumption-led development path is necessary [1] Group 1: Economic Transition - The need to encourage new supply to create new demand is emphasized, which includes new technologies, products, scenarios, and business models [1] - Boosting consumption is not only essential for driving economic growth but also serves as the ultimate goal of all economic activities [1]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting consumption as a driver of economic growth by optimizing supply structures and creating new consumption scenarios [1][6]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Adaptability - The plan outlines 19 key tasks focusing on expanding new consumption, tapping into existing markets, and targeting niche markets [1][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of new technologies and innovative models in industries such as smart vehicles, smart home products, and consumer electronics [2][6]. Group 2: New Consumption Scenarios - The plan encourages the development of new consumption scenarios, including interest-based products like pet supplies and anime merchandise, while also promoting low-altitude tourism and automotive aftermarket services [4][6]. - It supports the establishment of flagship stores and new concept stores to enhance consumer experience and engagement [4][6]. Group 3: Targeted Product Development - The plan aims to enhance product offerings for specific demographics, including children and the elderly, by promoting high-quality, intelligent, and customized products [7][8]. - It encourages the development of health-related products and services, integrating traditional medicine with modern health management [3][7]. Group 4: Shared Consumption - The plan outlines directions for shared consumption, including the promotion of shared bicycles and other mobility solutions in public spaces [5][6]. - It emphasizes the need for quality certification systems for shared products to ensure safety and reliability [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of consumer goods supply and demand, promoting consumption and achieving a dynamic balance by 2027 and establishing a high-quality development pattern by 2030 [1][6]. Group 1: Key Tasks and Focus Areas - The plan outlines 19 key tasks focusing on expanding new consumption, deepening existing consumption, and targeting niche markets through innovation in new technologies and models [1][6]. - Emphasis is placed on accelerating the application of new technologies in key industries such as smart connected vehicles, smart home, consumer electronics, and modern textiles [3][4]. - The initiative includes promoting flexible and customized manufacturing, establishing a digital system from user demand to intelligent design and flexible production [3][4]. Group 2: Consumer Segments and Product Development - The plan targets specific consumer segments, including children and the elderly, promoting the development of high-quality, intelligent, and customized products [8][9]. - For the children’s market, there is a focus on enhancing the supply of feeding, travel, outdoor, and educational products, alongside safety measures for children's products [8]. - In the elderly market, the plan encourages the development of products such as care robots, multifunctional nursing beds, and health monitoring devices to improve quality of life [8]. Group 3: New Consumption Scenarios - The plan aims to cultivate new consumption scenarios by promoting interest-based products such as pet-related goods, anime, and trendy fashion items [5][6]. - It supports the development of low-altitude tourism and private flying experiences, as well as the automotive aftermarket, including car modifications and RV camping [5]. - The initiative encourages the establishment of flagship stores and new concept stores to enhance consumer experience and promote product launches [5][6]. Group 4: Shared Consumption and Quality Standards - The plan outlines directions for shared consumption, including the promotion of shared bicycles and wheelchairs in public spaces, along with establishing quality certification systems for shared products [6][7]. - It emphasizes the importance of creating a comprehensive system that connects new supply with new demand through 19 specific tasks [6][7].

Group 1 - The 2025 Sohu Finance Annual Forum will be held in Beijing, featuring over 20 prominent speakers from academia, industry, and investment sectors, discussing key topics such as macro policies, industrial upgrades, internationalization of enterprises, capital market reforms, and changes in the international landscape [1][3] - The forum will address the challenges of restoring consumer confidence and enhancing economic resilience amid global geopolitical adjustments and domestic economic transformations [3][4] - Notable economists will focus on the resilience of the Chinese economy, exploring future opportunities and challenges, as well as new paths for economic development and local practices [3][4] Group 2 - The morning session will concentrate on industry practices, with experts discussing policy guidance, market mechanisms, and corporate strategies, particularly addressing the "involution and efficiency trap" [4] - The real estate sector is transitioning from high-leverage expansion to high-quality development, with industry leaders discussing strategies for breaking through and identifying new trends [4] - In the consumer sector, companies are innovating and transforming organizational structures to achieve growth despite price competition and weak demand [4] Group 3 - The financial investment segment will feature seasoned professionals analyzing asset allocation, pharmaceutical and biotechnology sectors, chip technology, and gold as a hedge against uncertainty [5] - The afternoon session will focus on the macro resilience of the Chinese economy, with discussions on the evolution of the global macroeconomic landscape and the transition of the capital market towards a more regulated and mature wealth management market [6] - The forum aims to break down information barriers, promote cross-border cooperation, and connect policies with markets, which is crucial for the development of the Chinese economy [6][7]