Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong stock market is entering a phase of valuation repair and structural reshaping, characterized by undervaluation, capital misalignment, and performance differentiation, with a significant influx of southbound capital and a shift in foreign investment reshaping the funding landscape [1][2]. Valuation and Market Dynamics - The Hang Seng Index has experienced a cumulative decline of over 50% from the post-Lunar New Year of 2021 to January 2024, leading to a significant valuation gap [2]. - As of December 9, 2023, the Hang Seng Index, Hang Seng China Enterprises Index, and Hang Seng Technology Index have recorded cumulative gains of 49.20%, 22.59%, and 24.32%, respectively [2]. - By the end of 2025, the expected EPS growth rate for the Hang Seng Index in 2026 is projected to be 8%, with a dynamic P/E ratio of only 12 times, indicating a notable valuation gap compared to major global markets [2]. Capital Flow and Investment Preferences - Southbound capital has seen a record net inflow of nearly 1.4 trillion HKD by the end of November, marking a new high since the launch of the mutual market access mechanism [3]. - The capital structure shows a clear differentiation, with institutional investors favoring themes like non-bank ETFs and personal investors focusing on growth sectors such as automotive, pharmaceuticals, and consumer goods [3]. - Foreign capital, while still experiencing outflows, has shown signs of recovery since August, with long-term foreign capital seeing its first phase of inflow since September 2022, particularly favoring the information technology sector [3]. Sector Performance and Outlook - The technology sector is expected to see significant profit growth in 2025, contrasting sharply with traditional sectors like finance and real estate [4]. - The Hang Seng Technology Index has shown volatility but continues to strengthen its core competitiveness, with the sector benefiting from advancements in AI and related technologies [4]. - The long-term trend of recovery in the Hong Kong stock market is expected to continue, driven by policy dividends and external risk dynamics [5][6]. Investment Directions - Key investment opportunities for 2026 are identified in four main sectors: technology, pharmaceuticals, resource products, and essential consumer goods, focusing on "earnings certainty + valuation elasticity" [8][9]. - The technology sector, particularly the AI industry chain, is anticipated to benefit from a virtuous cycle of investment and revenue growth, with a focus on leading companies and quality players in the computing power supply chain [8]. - The pharmaceuticals sector is entering a phase of certain growth, supported by policy and industry developments, with a focus on innovative companies and those benefiting from domestic market reforms [8]. - The resource products sector is supported by supply-demand mismatches and liquidity drivers, with expectations of rising commodity prices benefiting related stocks [9]. - The essential consumer goods sector is poised for valuation recovery, supported by domestic policies aimed at boosting consumption and improving income expectations [9].

● 本报记者 谭丁豪 2025年港股步入估值修复与结构重塑并行阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化成为核心特征。历经此 前三年调整，恒生指数形成显著的估值洼地，南向资金创纪录净流入与外资转向共同重塑资金格局。 日前，中信证券海外策略首席分析师徐广鸿在接受中国证券报记者专访时表示，2026年港股将在政策红 利与外部风险博弈中开启第二轮估值修复，内外因素共振有望进一步打开上行空间。在此背景下，投资 需紧扣"业绩确定性+估值弹性"主线，科技、医药、资源品与必选消费四大赛道，凭借政策支撑、产业 景气或供需优势，成为把握港股修复行情的核心方向。 估值洼地凸显 今年以来，港股三大指数震荡上行。Wind数据显示，截至12月9日，恒生指数、恒生中国企业指数、恒 生科技指数分别累计涨幅为49.20%、22.59%、24.32%。 "今年港股市场整体呈现估值修复的态势，有业绩支撑的行业估值扩张更为显著，例如原材料板块。在 此背景下，具有进一步基本面支撑的行业有望获得更大的估值上行空间。"徐广鸿说。 "当前港股正处于估值修复与结构重塑的关键阶段，估值低估、资金错位与业绩分化构成市场核心特 征。"徐广鸿表示，从估值维度看，2021年春 ...

近期韩政府召开资源安全协商会，审议了运营规程、资源安全强化方案、核心供需机构指定、稀土 供应链对策以及第5次石油储备计划等五大议题。政府将通过建立国家级综合数据库与预警体系，将危 机应对模式从事后处理转为事前预防与常态监测。 韩国《亚洲经济》12月5日报道，韩国政府依据《国家资源安全特别法》，全面推进能源与矿物资 源供应链政策重构，以应对长期化的全球地缘政治风险与关键资源供需不稳定。 稀土供应链被列为本次政策的最重要议题。韩国将17类稀土全部纳入关键矿物，推出短、中、长期 路线图：短期着重稳定从中国的供应与提升储备；中期推动美国、澳大利亚、日本、东南亚等多元化供 应链合作与联合投资；长期聚焦国内精炼能力培育、回收体系建设及相关研发投入。 政府同时强化政企联合危机响应架构，将炼油、天然气和矿物企业指定为核心供应机构，将半导 体、汽车等行业龙头指定为核心需求机构，并在供应风险或价格异常时实现快速汇报与多渠道协同处 置。海外资源开发政策将全面转向项目基准模式，国家将以定制化政策包支持企业分担风险，提高贷款 支持比例，并将关键矿物储备从100天提升至180天，同时推动天然气储备体系双轨化。 （原标题：韩重整关键矿产供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The European Union (EU) is attempting to reduce its reliance on Eastern countries for critical raw materials, particularly rare earth elements, to ensure supply chain security [1][4]. Group 1: EU's Strategic Initiatives - The EU has launched the "ResourceEU" plan, committing €3 billion (approximately 24.7 billion RMB) to key raw materials needed for electric vehicles, wind turbines, and semiconductors over the next year [2]. - The intention behind this investment is to diversify Europe's supply chain through recycling, joint procurement, and strategic reserves, aiming to regain some control over rare earth materials [4]. Group 2: Challenges and Risks - The acquisition of Less Common Metals (LCM) by USA Rare Earth signifies a critical blow to Europe's rare earth industry, as LCM is one of the few companies in Europe capable of converting rare earth oxides into metals and alloys [5][8]. - The loss of LCM means that Europe may not be able to produce the magnets required for electric vehicles, despite having access to raw materials [7][11]. - The current situation indicates that while Europe seeks to establish its own supply chain, it is losing existing capabilities to American companies, which could lead to a dependency shift from China to the U.S. [11][12]. Group 3: Geopolitical Implications - The U.S. is leveraging its capital strength and the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) to acquire critical mineral assets globally, which poses a threat to Europe's industrial base [13][15]. - There is a growing realization that the EU's efforts to secure raw materials may inadvertently lead to a form of dependency on the U.S., rather than achieving true autonomy [12][20]. - The EU's current predicament reflects a struggle between wanting to reduce reliance on China while simultaneously facing the risk of becoming subordinate to U.S. interests in the critical materials sector [20][22].

哈喽，大家好！今天小界要和大家聊聊当特朗普在涉台法案上签署时，中国的稀土管制精准打击已直接 触及美国军工的要害。这不仅仅是资源的断供问题，而是一套让五角大楼完全束手无策的组合拳。就在 美国忙于应对这一困境时，另一个对中国稀土高度依赖的国家——日本，也遇到了最为担心的局面。中 国稀土这一王牌，为什么能让两个军事经济强国都面临压力？ 五角大楼早在上世纪就开始呼吁重建稀土供应链，但进展一直很缓慢，关键问题出在稀土提纯技术这一 技术壁垒上。开矿本身不难，美国本土的芒廷帕斯稀土矿储量非常丰富，但将这些矿石转化为F-35战机 和导弹芯片所需的高纯度材料，却需要一种极为复杂的化学分离工艺。 中国在稀土提纯领域的优势，正是经过数十年技术积累的结晶。从独家优化的萃取剂配方到自主设计的 分离设备，整个工艺形成了坚不可摧的技术壁垒。美国曾联合澳大利亚、加拿大等盟友投入上百亿美元 进行攻关，却发现即便复制了生产线，也需要至少五年时间调整工艺参数，再花五年培养熟练技工。业 内普遍认为，突破这一壁垒最少也需要10年。 然而，美国军工根本等不起这10年。F-35战机的生产线每天都需要稀土磁性材料，雷神公司的导弹订单 已经排到2030年以后 ...

据澎湃新闻，12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 路透社记者提问，近日多位欧洲领导人访问中国，表达了对中国向欧洲供应稀土的担忧。这些访问是否旨在寻求中方就确保欧洲稀土供应作 出承诺，或者承诺发放稀土通用许可证？第二个问题，日本媒体报道称，由于北京和东京之间的外交争端，中国向日本出口稀土出现延误。 中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示， 中方主管部门已经多次介绍了稀土相关物项出口管制的工作情况，中方正在依法依规处理有关问题。 ...

编辑 ｜瑜见 路透社记者提问，近日多位欧洲领导人访问中国，表达了对中国向欧洲供应稀土的担忧。这些访问是否 旨在寻求中方就确保欧洲稀土供应作出承诺，或者承诺发放稀土通用许可证？第二个问题，日本媒体报 道称，由于北京和东京之间的外交争端，中国向日本出口稀土出现延误。中方对此有何评论？ 郭嘉昆表示，中方主管部门已经多次介绍了稀土相关物项出口管制的工作情况，中方正在依法依规处理 有关问题。 来源｜澎湃新闻 12月9日，外交部发言人郭嘉昆主持例行记者会。 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The domestic rare earth market shows a mixed trend, with prices for praseodymium-neodymium oxide and praseodymium-neodymium metal increasing by approximately 3,000 yuan/ton and 5,000 yuan/ton, respectively, while dysprosium oxide prices have decreased by about 10,000 yuan/ton [6][5][7]. Group 2: Light Rare Earth Market - The light rare earth market is characterized by a cautious atmosphere, with downstream demand progressing slowly. However, due to production cost support and limited market supply, major suppliers have tentatively raised their quotes [7][8]. - In October, some praseodymium-neodymium production enterprises in Jiangxi and Guangdong have ceased operations, further restricting market supply [7]. Group 3: Heavy Rare Earth Market - The heavy rare earth market is weak, with low purchasing enthusiasm from buyers and some suppliers adopting a price-for-volume strategy, leading to a decline in dysprosium and terbium prices [8]. Group 4: Import and Export Data - From January to November 2025, China's cumulative rare earth imports reached 91,110.9 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.1%, while the cumulative import value was 11.26 billion yuan, an increase of 9.0%. Cumulative exports amounted to 58,193.1 tons, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%, with an export value of 3.21 billion yuan, up 0.9% [8]. - In November 2025, China's rare earth imports were 5,221.0 tons, a month-on-month decrease of 25.32% and a year-on-year decrease of 53.91%. The import value was 900 million yuan, down 7.78% month-on-month but up 18.57% year-on-year. Rare earth exports were 5,493.9 tons, a month-on-month increase of 26.49% and a year-on-year increase of 24.42%, with an export value of 350 million yuan, down 12.50% month-on-month but up 34.62% year-on-year [8].

Core Viewpoint - The recent tightening of rare earth exports by China has raised global concerns, particularly in the military, wind energy, and electric vehicle sectors, highlighting the strategic importance of these resources [3][9][12]. Group 1: Strategic Importance of Rare Earths - Rare earths consist of 17 metals essential for various technologies, including mobile chips, missiles, and wind turbines [3]. - China's management of rare earths is rooted in its recognition of these materials as strategic resources, akin to oil in the Middle East [3][22]. - The U.S. military's annual consumption of rare earths is less than 0.8% of global production, indicating a lower dependency than perceived [9]. Group 2: Regulatory Developments - In June 2024, China introduced the "Rare Earth Management Regulations," implementing total quantity control over mining and refining [5]. - The export control measures announced in April 2024 are part of a broader strategy to manage rare earth resources effectively [5][16]. Group 3: Market Reactions and Adjustments - The U.S. military and electric vehicle industries have expressed significant concern over their reliance on rare earths, with some companies exploring alternative sources and technologies [9][14]. - The European Union has initiated plans to diversify its rare earth sources, yet remains heavily reliant on China for critical materials [12][20]. Group 4: Economic Implications - The price dynamics of rare earths vary significantly, with heavy rare earths like neodymium and dysprosium remaining stable, while light rare earths have seen price drops due to increased production from other countries [18]. - China's shift from exporting raw materials to selling finished products has led to a significant market share in rare earth magnets, accounting for 70% of the global market [20][21]. Group 5: Future Outlook - By 2030, the global rare earth landscape is expected to shift from China's dominance to a more collaborative model, emphasizing the need for adherence to regulations [22]. - The U.S. Department of Defense is investing in a complete supply chain for rare earths, indicating a long-term strategy to reduce dependency on foreign sources [20].

Core Insights - Rare earth elements are crucial for modern technology and national security, with applications ranging from smartphones to military systems [2][3] - The United States faces significant challenges in its rare earth industry, primarily relying on China for processing despite having its own mining resources [2][5] Group 1: Importance of Rare Earth Elements - Rare earth elements consist of 17 elements, including lanthanum, cerium, and neodymium, which are essential in high-tech applications such as electric vehicles and wind turbines [3] - China dominates the global rare earth market, holding approximately 37% of the world's reserves and producing 63% of the global output in 2019 [3][5] Group 2: Challenges Faced by the U.S. Rare Earth Industry - The U.S. rare earth industry suffers from limited resources, insufficient investment, and outdated technology, leading to a lack of processing capabilities [5][10] - The Mountain Pass mine in California has significant reserves but lacks the processing capacity, forcing the U.S. to send mined materials to China for refinement [5][6] Group 3: China's Strategic Position - China has developed a complete rare earth supply chain, from mining to processing, giving it a competitive edge over other countries [10][11] - The Chinese government has implemented export controls on rare earth materials, which has raised concerns in the U.S. about the potential impact on military and high-tech industries [6][11] Group 4: U.S. Response and Future Strategies - The U.S. has attempted to revitalize its rare earth industry through initiatives like the 2017 executive order aimed at understanding supply chains and fostering domestic production [9] - Future strategies for the U.S. include investing in technology, collaborating with allies for a diversified supply chain, and exploring recycling and alternative materials to reduce dependence on China [10][11]