1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - For Treasury bonds, it's expected that there won't be a trending market, and caution is advised [6][7]. - Regarding stock indices, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic, and going long on stock index futures is considered [10][11]. - For precious metals, the long - term bull market trend is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures is considered [13][14]. - In the case of rebar and hot - rolled coils, investors can focus on low - position long opportunities after the correction [15]. - For iron ore, investors can look for low - position buying opportunities after the correction [17][18]. - For coking coal and coke, investors are advised to wait and see [20][21]. - Regarding ferroalloys, long - position exit opportunities can be considered when the market continues to rise, and long positions at low - support intervals can be considered if there is a decline [23]. - For crude oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [26]. - For fuel oil, investors can focus on long opportunities in the main contract [28]. - For synthetic rubber, wait for the market to stabilize and then participate in the rebound [29][31]. - For natural rubber, it's expected to oscillate strongly [32][33]. - For PVC, it's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34][38]. - For urea, it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39][40]. - For PX, it may oscillate and adjust in the future, and investors should participate cautiously [42]. - For PTA, it may oscillate in the short term, and investors should participate in the range [43]. - For ethylene glycol, investors should be cautious about the upside space in the short term and participate in the range [44][45]. - For staple fiber, it may oscillate following the cost, and pay attention to cost changes and macro - policy adjustments [46]. - For bottle chips, it's expected to oscillate following the cost [47][48]. - For glass, continue to pay attention to spot trading and regional de - stocking; in the long - term, focus on the implementation of capacity clearance of old production lines [49][50]. - For caustic soda, the positive support is relatively limited, and it's affected by macro - sentiment recently [52]. - For pulp, the pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust, and pay attention to policy trends and actual spot transactions [54][55]. - For lithium carbonate, it's advisable to watch more and act less and control risks [56]. - For copper, there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. - For tin, it's expected to oscillate [59]. - For nickel, it's expected to oscillate [60]. - For soybean oil and soybean meal, consider long opportunities in the support interval for soybean meal after adjustment; for soybean oil, consider call option opportunities in the support interval after the decline [62]. - For palm oil, consider long opportunities after the correction [64]. - For rapeseed meal and rapeseed oil, consider long opportunities [65]. - For cotton, it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [67][68]. - For sugar, it's recommended to wait and see [71]. - For apples, it's recommended to wait and see [75]. - For live pigs, consider holding previous short positions [77]. - For eggs, consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [80]. - For corn and starch, consider virtual - value call option opportunities in the previous low - level interval for near - month corn contracts; corn starch follows the corn market [83]. - For logs, the market has returned to the actual spot situation [87]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Treasury Bonds - Last trading day, treasury bond futures closed up across the board. The central bank conducted 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The national parenting subsidy system implementation plan was announced [5]. - The current macro - economic recovery momentum needs to be strengthened, and the treasury bond yield is at a relatively low level [6]. Stock Indices - Last trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The national industrial and information technology conference emphasized measures to expand domestic demand [8][9]. - The domestic economic recovery momentum is weak, but asset valuations are low, and China's economy has resilience. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is optimistic [10]. Precious Metals - Last trading day, gold and silver futures closed down. The US and the EU reached a 15% tariff agreement [12]. - The global trade and financial environment is complex, and the long - term bull market trend of precious metals is expected to continue [13]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coils - Last trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures fell sharply. Policy expectations dominate the market, and the actual supply - demand pattern is secondary [15]. Iron Ore - Last trading day, iron ore futures fell sharply. Policy expectations are the core influencing factor. The supply - demand pattern is still strong, but it may adjust in the short term [17]. Coking Coal and Coke - Last trading day, coking coal and coke futures hit the daily limit down. The direct cause was the position - limit measure, and the deep - seated reason was the excessive previous rise. The supply - contraction policy has become a reality [20]. Ferroalloys - Last trading day, manganese silicon and ferrosilicon futures closed down. The supply of manganese ore has increased, and the supply of ferroalloys is still high while the demand is weak [22][23]. Crude Oil - Last trading day, INE crude oil opened high and closed low. Fund managers reduced their net long positions, and the number of US oil rigs decreased. OPEC+ is unlikely to change the production plan [24][25]. Fuel Oil - Last trading day, fuel oil oscillated downward. The fuel oil inventory in Japan and Singapore has changed. The supply in the Asian market is sufficient, but trade agreements are beneficial to the shipping market [27]. Synthetic Rubber - Last trading day, synthetic rubber futures closed down. The raw material price has rebounded, and the supply and demand situation has changed. Wait for the market to stabilize [29][30]. Natural Rubber - Last trading day, natural rubber futures closed down. The supply is affected by rainfall, and the demand has recovered slightly. It's expected to oscillate strongly [32]. PVC - Last trading day, PVC futures closed down. The supply is excessive, but the downward space may be limited. It's expected to oscillate strongly in the short term [34]. Urea - Last trading day, urea futures closed down. The supply - demand situation has weakened recently, and it will fluctuate in the short term and be bullish in the medium term [39]. PX - Last trading day, PX futures rose. The supply load has decreased, and the import volume has changed. The short - term supply - demand balance is tight, and it may oscillate and adjust [41][42]. PTA - Last trading day, PTA futures fell. The supply and demand have changed little, and the cost has some support. It may oscillate in the short term [43]. Ethylene Glycol - Last trading day, ethylene glycol futures fell. The supply pressure has increased, but the inventory has decreased. Be cautious about the upside space in the short term [44]. Staple Fiber - Last trading day, staple fiber futures fell. The supply is high, and the demand is weak. It may oscillate following the cost [46]. Bottle Chips - Last trading day, bottle chips futures fell. The device maintenance has increased, and the demand has recovered. It's expected to oscillate following the cost [47]. Glass - Last trading day, glass futures fell. The inventory has decreased, and the price in some regions has risen. The market sentiment fluctuates, and the follow - up needs to focus on spot trading and de - stocking [49][50]. Caustic Soda - Last trading day, caustic soda futures fell. The production has increased, and the inventory has changed. The positive support is limited [51][52]. Pulp - Last trading day, pulp futures fell. The supply has an expansion tendency, and the demand is weak. The pulp price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [53][54]. Lithium Carbonate - Last trading day, lithium carbonate futures fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand has improved slightly, but the trading is inactive. Be cautious and control risks [56]. Copper - Last trading day, Shanghai copper oscillated downward. The spot premium is expected to remain weak, but there is still a basis for an upward trend [58]. Tin - Last trading day, Shanghai tin oscillated. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the consumption is weak. It's expected to oscillate [59]. Nickel - Last trading day, Shanghai nickel fell. The supply is excessive, and the consumption is not optimistic. It's expected to oscillate [60]. Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal - Last trading day, soybean oil and soybean meal futures closed down. The US soybean yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply is relatively loose. Consider different investment opportunities for soybean oil and soybean meal [61][62]. Palm Oil - Malaysian palm oil fell. The export volume has decreased, and the domestic inventory has increased. Consider long opportunities after the correction [63][64]. Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Canadian rapeseed weakened. The domestic import volume has changed, and the inventory situation is different. Consider long opportunities [65]. Cotton - Last trading day, domestic cotton oscillated at a high level. The global supply - demand is expected to be loose, and it's recommended to short far - month contracts in batches at high prices [66][67][68]. Sugar - Last trading day, domestic sugar oscillated strongly. The Brazilian sugar production is lower than expected, and the domestic inventory and import volume have changed. It's recommended to wait and see [69][71]. Apples - Last trading day, domestic apple futures rose sharply and then fell. The expected production reduction has been falsified. It's recommended to wait and see [73][74][75]. Live Pigs - The national average price of live pigs fell. The supply is abundant, and the demand is average. Consider holding previous short positions [76][77]. Eggs - The average price of eggs in the main production and sales areas fell. The supply is increasing, and it's recommended to consider a 9 - 10 reverse spread [78][80]. Corn and Starch - Last trading day, corn and starch futures rose. The US corn yield is expected to be good, and the domestic supply - demand is approaching balance. Consider option opportunities for corn and follow the corn market for starch [81][83]. Logs - Last trading day, log futures rose. The supply has increased, and the inventory has decreased. The market has returned to the actual spot situation [84][85][87].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views - The market is influenced by various factors such as geopolitical events, economic data, and policy expectations. Different asset classes show different trends and potential investment opportunities and risks. Traders should pay attention to market sentiment changes, fundamental factors, and policy developments [2][3][6] - For most commodities, short - term price fluctuations are affected by market sentiment, especially the "anti -内卷" and supply - side reform expectations. However, in the long - term, fundamental factors such as supply and demand will play a more important role. Some commodities may face price adjustments due to over - speculation, while others may have potential based on their own fundamentals [33][37] Summary by Category Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes Sino - US economic and trade talks, industrial policies, and commodity futures market performance. The market has seen an all - around rise with increased trading volume. It is recommended to focus on the end - of - month Politburo meeting and consider going long on IF index futures on dips [2] Treasury Bonds - On Monday, Treasury bond futures rose. The economic data in the second quarter was resilient, but the "rush - to - export" effect may weaken. The central bank maintains a supportive attitude towards funds, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term. Short - term market sentiment in commodities and stocks suppresses the bond market, and it is recommended to enter the market on dips [3][4][5] Precious Metals - Domestic precious metals prices fell slightly, while overseas prices rose slightly. Geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties have eased, and US economic data is resilient, putting short - term pressure on precious metals prices. However, the Fed's monetary policy may turn dovish, and it is recommended to maintain a long - position strategy, especially focusing on silver [6][7] Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - The US is close to a trade agreement with the EU, and the dollar index rises. Copper prices are expected to be weak and fluctuate due to uncertainties in the Fed's meeting and US copper tariffs, as well as seasonal weak demand and expected increase in imports [9][10] Aluminum - Aluminum prices fluctuated. The domestic black - series commodities weakened, and aluminum inventories increased. Without unexpected policy announcements, market sentiment may be under pressure. Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate weakly due to low - level inventories and weak downstream demand [11] Zinc - Zinc prices fell. Domestic zinc ore supply is loose, and zinc ingot supply is expected to increase. In the long - term, zinc prices are bearish. Short - term factors such as Fed's dovish sentiment and overseas structural risks need to be considered, and caution is needed for price fluctuations [12] Lead - Lead prices fell slightly. Lead ingot supply is marginally tightening, and downstream demand is expected to improve. Environmental inspections may affect smelter operations, and there is a possibility of price strengthening. Caution is needed for price fluctuations [13][14] Nickel - Nickel prices fell. Nickel ore prices are stable, and nickel iron has an oversupply problem. In the short - term, the macro - environment has cooled, and nickel prices are expected to decline further. It is recommended to hold short positions or go short on rallies [15] Tin - Tin prices fell. Short - term tin ore supply is still tight, but downstream demand is weak. Tin prices are expected to fluctuate within a certain range [16] Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell sharply. The commodity market has cooled, and there is uncertainty in capital games. It is recommended that speculative funds wait and see, and holders should choose appropriate entry points [17][18] Alumina - Alumina prices fell. The supply - side contraction policy needs further observation, and the over - capacity pattern may be difficult to change. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to relevant policies [19] Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices fell. The market atmosphere has weakened, and the supply is expected to increase. If downstream demand cannot keep up, prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to macro - news and downstream demand [20] Cast Aluminum Alloy - Cast aluminum alloy prices fell. The downstream is in the off - season, and supply and demand are weak. Although there is cost support, there is upward pressure on prices [21][22] Black Building Materials Steel - Steel prices fell. The commodity market sentiment has cooled, and the cost has decreased. Export volume has decreased, and the fundamentals of different steel products vary. Attention should be paid to policy signals and downstream demand [24][25] Iron Ore - Iron ore prices fell. Overseas shipments are increasing, and demand is high but slightly declining. Inventory has increased slightly. Short - term prices may adjust, and attention should be paid to market sentiment and macro - policies [26][27] Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices fluctuated. Short - term prices are affected by macro - policies and may be volatile. In the long - term, they depend on real estate policies and supply - side adjustments [28] - Soda ash prices fell. Supply has decreased, and inventory pressure has eased. Short - term prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and look for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [29] Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of a sharp decline as sentiment fades. It is recommended that speculative positions wait and see, and relevant enterprises consider hedging [30][31][33] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon prices fell. Short - term prices are expected to enter a high - volatility and wide - range oscillation stage. It is recommended to wait and see [34] Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices fell. Supply concerns may ease, and there are differences between bulls and bears. It is recommended to wait and see and consider a spread trading strategy [39][40][41] Crude Oil - Crude oil prices showed different trends. The fundamental market is healthy, and there is upward momentum, but seasonal demand weakness in August will limit the upside. It is recommended to go long on dips and set a short - term target price [42] Methanol - Methanol prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment, and there is a risk of decline as sentiment cools. Fundamentally, supply may increase and demand may weaken, and it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money call options on rallies [43] Urea - Urea prices fell. Short - term prices are affected by market sentiment. Fundamentally, supply is decreasing and demand is weak. Exports are an important factor, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities on dips [44] Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The BZN spread is expected to repair, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward [45][46] PVC - PVC prices fell. The fundamentals are weak with strong supply and weak demand and high valuation. Attention should be paid to export conditions and the risk of price decline after sentiment fades [47] Ethylene Glycol - Ethylene glycol prices fell. Supply is increasing, and demand recovery is limited. Inventory is expected to increase, and short - term valuation may decline [48] PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply is expected to increase and inventory to accumulate. Demand is gradually improving, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following PX [49] Para - Xylene - Para - xylene prices fell. The load is high, and downstream demand is recovering. It is expected to continue to reduce inventory, and it is recommended to look for long - position opportunities following crude oil [50] Polyethylene (PE) - PE prices fell. The market expects positive policies, and the cost side provides support. The short - term contradiction has shifted, and prices are expected to follow the cost side and oscillate upward. It is recommended to hold short positions [51] Polypropylene (PP) - PP prices fell. Supply and demand are weak in the off - season, and prices are expected to oscillate strongly in July under the influence of macro - expectations [52][53] Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Live pig prices were stable to weak. The market is trading on policy intervention, and the supply - surplus logic has changed. It is recommended to focus on spread trading opportunities [55] Eggs - Egg prices fell. Supply is stable, and demand is average. Short - term prices of near - month contracts will oscillate, and it is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities in post - festival contracts [56] Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybean prices fell, and domestic soybean meal prices were weak. North American weather is favorable, and domestic soybean meal inventory is high. It is recommended to go long on dips in the cost - range and look for opportunities to widen the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [57][59][60] Oils and Fats - Palm oil exports and production data showed different trends. The domestic oil inventory increased slightly. EPA policies and other factors support the price center, but there are also bearish factors. Palm oil prices are expected to oscillate [61][62][63] Sugar - Sugar prices fell. Brazilian port sugar shipments increased, and domestic import supply pressure may increase. Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [64][65] Cotton - Cotton prices fell. Downstream consumption is average, and there is a potential negative factor of additional import quotas. The price has partially reflected the positive expectation, and caution is needed [66]

Group 1: General Information - Report date: July 29, 2025 [2] - Report type: MEG Daily Report [1] Group 2:行情回顾与操作建议 - Futures market: On the 28th, the main contract 2509 of ethylene glycol futures opened at 4545, reached a high of 4545, a low of 4423, settled at 4469, and closed at 4436, down 93 from the previous trading day's settlement price. The total volume was 241,057 lots, and the open interest was 258,742 lots. The EG2509 and EG2601 contracts both closed at 4436, down 93, with open interest of 258,742 lots, down 21,692 [7] - Market outlook: Currently, the macro - level positive support has weakened, leading to an overall oscillating correction in the commodity market. As the supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol has not changed significantly, it is expected to continue the correction trend following the commodities [7] Group 3: Industry News - International oil prices: On Friday (July 25), the settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $65.16 per barrel, down $0.87 or 1.32% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.00 - $66.74. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for September 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $68.44 per barrel, down $0.74 or 1.07% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $68.31 - $69.86 [8] - Ethylene glycol market prices: The mainstream transaction price in the Zhangjiagang ethylene glycol market was 4480 - 4515 yuan/ton, down 85 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The negotiation range in the Dongguan market was 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton. The negotiation range in the Fujian market was also 4450 - 4500 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [8] Group 4: Data Overview - Data includes PTA - MEG spread, MEG price, MEG futures price, spot - futures price difference, international crude oil futures main contract closing price, raw material price index (ethylene), MEG downstream product prices, and MEG downstream product inventory, all sourced from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][15][16][18]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the financial sector, the short - term strong US dollar suppresses gold prices, the US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, and the bond market sentiment will improve this week but with continued market fluctuations. The implementation of the national parenting subsidy system is expected to drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. - In the commodity sector, the supply and demand of various commodities vary. For example, the supply of coking coal is slightly tight, the supply of soybeans is expected to be abundant, and the supply of some energy - chemical products is affected by factors such as production restrictions and inventory changes [13][17][20]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - The US Treasury plans to borrow $1.007 trillion from July to September, $450 billion more than the April forecast. Gold prices are under pressure from the strong US dollar, and the market is volatile this week. Short - term, gold is in a volatile state, and there is a risk of decline [13][14]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Thailand expects a favorable trade agreement from the US after the cease - fire with Cambodia. Trump may impose a 15% - 20% tariff on imports from countries without a separate trade agreement and shortens the cease - fire deadline for Russia. The US dollar index is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term [15][16][17]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The national parenting subsidy system will provide an annual subsidy of 3,600 yuan per child. It is expected to increase annual fiscal expenditure by over 110 billion yuan and drive a 0.2% increase in social retail. It is recommended to allocate evenly among stock index varieties [19][20][21]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US July Dallas Fed business activity index is 0.9, better than expected. The US Treasury raises its Q3 borrowing forecast. The market is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the short - term, but there is a risk of correction [22][23]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducts 495.8 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net investment of 325.1 billion yuan. The bond market sentiment will improve this week, but there are still uncertainties, and it is recommended to enter and exit quickly when going long [24][25]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - Environmental inspections in Wuhai limit coal production, and coking coal supply is tight. Coke prices are rising, but there are risks due to rapid price increases. It is necessary to manage positions [26][27]. 2.2 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - US soybean good - to - excellent ratings rise to 70%, and Brazil's July soybean exports are expected to exceed last year. Domestic soybean meal inventory increases. The futures price is expected to be volatile, and focus on the Sino - US talks this week [28][30]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - As of July 25, soybean oil inventory decreases slightly, and palm oil inventory increases. Malaysian palm oil production increases in July. The market is expected to be under pressure, but palm oil has support. Soybean oil prices are hard to rise due to sufficient supply [31][32][34]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - Guangtang Group aims for a sugarcane order area of 2.18 million mu by the end of 2025. Pakistan bids to buy 100,000 tons of sugar. The Sino - Thai AEO mutual recognition agreement will be implemented on August 1. Zhengzhou sugar is expected to be volatile, and focus on the resistance level of 5,900 yuan [35][36][38]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - Corn starch spot prices are stable. Supply pressure increases due to the resumption of some enterprises' production. Starch enterprises' losses may continue or expand [38][39][40]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Northeast China is expected to have more precipitation in the next 10 days, increasing waterlogging risks. Corn futures show differentiation. It is recommended to hold short positions in new - crop contracts and look for opportunities to add positions on rebounds [41]. 2.7 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - China's transportation fixed - asset investment in H1 is 1.6474 trillion yuan. Steel prices decline due to changes in market sentiment. It is recommended to be cautious in the short - term [42][43][44]. 2.8 Black Metals (Steam Coal) - Northern port steam coal prices are stable. Coal consumption growth slows down, and supply is slightly weak. Pay attention to coal consumption growth and port inventory changes [45]. 2.9 Black Metals (Iron Ore) - A Canadian mining company plans to develop an iron ore project. Iron ore prices follow the decline of coal prices. The fundamentals may weaken later. It is recommended to reduce positions [46][47]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Alumina) - An aluminum plant in Xinjiang's alumina tender price rises. The domestic alumina surplus is increasing, and the futures price falls after rising. It is recommended to wait and see [48][49]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - A lithium project in Zimbabwe makes progress, and a lithium refinery project in Morocco is advancing. The futures exchange limits positions, and the price lacks upward momentum. It is recommended to pay attention to the opportunity of holding inventory for reverse arbitrage [50][51][52]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Polysilicon) - Turkey raises the import reference price of some photovoltaic products. Polysilicon prices are affected by the market. The price is expected to be between 41,000 - 57,000 yuan/ton in the short - term, and consider buying on dips [53][55][56]. 2.13 Non - ferrous Metals (Industrial Silicon) - The price of silicon coal in some areas rises. Industrial silicon production increases, and inventory changes. It is recommended to look for short - selling opportunities or sell out - of - the - money call options [57][58][59]. 2.14 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory increases. The nickel price is affected by market sentiment. In the short - term, it may be volatile, and in the medium - term, it is expected to decline. Pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rallies [60][61][62]. 2.15 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - A lead smelting system in Guizhou starts production, and lead ingot social inventory changes little. The lead price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to buy on dips in the short - term and wait and see for arbitrage [63][64][66]. 2.16 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - Bolivian zinc concentrate production decreases in May, and domestic zinc ingot inventory increases. The zinc price is affected by the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading, pay attention to positive calendar spread arbitrage, and wait and see for cross - border trading [67][68][69]. 2.17 Energy Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - A refinery's LPG - related device is about to start. The LPG price is expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [70][71][72]. 2.18 Energy Chemicals (Crude Oil) - Russia temporarily bans gasoline exports. Oil prices rebound. The market expects OPEC+ to increase production. The oil price is expected to be range - bound in the short - term [73][74]. 2.19 Energy Chemicals (Asphalt) - Asphalt refinery inventory increases, and social inventory decreases slightly. The asphalt demand is weak, and the price is expected to be volatile [75][76][77]. 2.20 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - Styrene port inventory increases. The styrene price is affected by the macro - environment. Pay attention to macro - sentiment changes [77][78][79]. 2.21 Energy Chemicals (Urea) - Urea prices in North China decline. The urea market is expected to be volatile in the short - term [80][81][82]. 2.22 Energy Chemicals (PX) - PX prices decline. The PX price is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger in the long - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [83][84]. 2.23 Energy Chemicals (PTA) - PTA prices decline. The PTA price is expected to be slightly stronger in the short - term, but with large short - term fluctuations [85][86]. 2.24 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - Soda ash inventory decreases. The soda ash price drops sharply. The market is volatile, and it is recommended to wait for policy guidance [87]. 2.25 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - Float glass prices in the Shahe market change. The glass price drops, and the market sentiment is weak. It is recommended to be cautious in single - side trading and focus on the strategy of going long on glass and short on soda ash [88][89]. 2.26 Energy Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export and domestic prices decrease. Bottle chip production decreases, but demand is weak. It is recommended to look for opportunities to expand processing margins on dips [90][91][92].

Market Performance - The market experienced a rebound on July 28, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains, closing up by 0.96% [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.12%, and the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 0.44% [1] Sector Performance - The computing hardware sector saw a significant surge, while innovative drug concept stocks maintained strong performance [1] - Active performance was noted in military and commercial aerospace concept stocks [1] - Conversely, cyclical stocks such as steel and coal experienced collective adjustments [1] ETF Performance - All ETFs that rose were related to innovative drugs, with the East Money Fund's Innovative Drug ETF (159622) leading the market with a 4.1% increase [3] - Other notable ETFs in the innovative drug sector also saw gains, with the Hong Kong Innovative Drug 50 ETF (513780) up by 4.04% and the Hong Kong Innovative Drug ETF (513120) up by 4.01% [3] Policy Updates - On July 24, the National Medical Insurance Administration announced the initiation of the 11th batch of centralized procurement, optimizing specific rules regarding the selection process [2] - The new rules will no longer simply use the lowest bid as a reference point, and companies with the lowest bids must publicly justify their pricing [2] Industry Insights - According to a report by Industrial Securities, the AACR and ASCO meetings this year showcased numerous domestic innovative drugs exceeding expectations, with anticipation for data releases from upcoming industry conferences [4] - There has been ongoing progress in foreign licensing transactions for innovative drugs, with expectations for more high-quality domestic products to explore international opportunities [4]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - As of the week ending July 25, 2025, the weekly returns of Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing), ChinaBond Composite Bond Index, and Nanhua Commodity Index were 2.11%, -0.48%, and 2.73% respectively. In the public - fund market, the returns of stock - bond strategies were differentiated in the past week. Among equity strategies, passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose. In bond strategies, the pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline. In the commodity market, energy - chemical ETFs were strong with a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. - Among the CITIC five - style indices, all style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns. The style rotation chart showed that the relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly. In the public - fund pool, the average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink. The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined. In terms of crowding, the growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. - Among Barra factors, the residual volatility factor performed well in the past week, with an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink. In terms of winning rate, the growth factor declined, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly. This week, the cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range. According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Index Performance - Tonglian All A (Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing) had a weekly return of 2.11%, the ChinaBond Composite Bond Index had a return of - 0.48%, and the Nanhua Commodity Index had a return of 2.73% as of July 25, 2025 [3]. 3.2 Public - Fund Market Performance - **Equity Strategies**: Passive index - type products led in returns, and market - neutral strategy products mostly rose [3]. - **Bond Strategies**: The pure - bond fund index showed a significant decline [3]. - **Commodity Market**: Energy - chemical ETFs had a weekly increase of 6.00%, non - ferrous metal ETFs rebounded, and precious - metal ETFs continued the upward trend of net value [3]. 3.3 CITIC Five - Style Index Performance - **Return Performance**: All style indices closed up last Friday. The cycle and growth styles led in returns [3]. - **Relative Strength and Momentum**: The relative strength of the cycle and stable styles increased significantly, while the momentum of the consumption style decreased slightly [3]. - **Fund Excess Return**: The average returns of financial and consumption - style funds significantly outperformed the index in the past week, with excess returns of 1.14% and 0.23% respectively. The excess returns of cycle and growth - style funds continued to shrink [3]. - **Style Trend**: The stable style strengthened slightly, and the cycle style declined [3]. - **Crowding**: The growth and cycle styles rebounded marginally, while the consumption and financial styles remained in the historically high - crowding range [3]. 3.4 Barra Factor Performance - **Factor Return**: The residual volatility factor had an excess return of 0.60%. The returns of momentum and valuation factors weakened marginally, and the excess return of the profitability factor continued to shrink [3]. - **Winning Rate and Momentum**: The growth factor declined in terms of winning rate, and the capital - flow factor strengthened slightly [3]. - **Factor Rotation Speed**: The cross - sectional rotation speed of factors rose from the historically low - quantile range to the middle range [3]. 3.5 Style Timing Strategy - According to the latest scoring results of the style timing model, the financial style weakened marginally this week, and the consumption style recovered. The current signal favors the consumption style. The return of the style timing strategy last week was 0.36%, and the excess return compared to the benchmark balanced allocation was - 1.59% [3].

Core Viewpoint - Shandong Province has become the leader in the number of national-level manufacturing single champion enterprises, surpassing Zhejiang, with a total of 238 such enterprises as of last year [1][2]. Group 1: Characteristics of Shandong's Champion Enterprises - Shandong's manufacturing single champion enterprises focus on key technologies in traditional industries such as energy and machinery, with notable companies including Weichai Heavy Machinery and Taishan Steel [2]. - The province is also making strides in emerging industries like new information technology and new materials, with companies such as Zhenghai Magnetic and Debang Technology leading the way [2]. Group 2: Incentives and Support for Champion Enterprises - Shandong has implemented a reward policy since 2016, offering 2 million yuan for selected champion demonstration enterprises and 1 million yuan for nurturing enterprises, with local governments providing additional rewards [2]. - Other provinces also offer support, with Shenzhen providing up to 200,000 yuan for national-level champions and 100,000 yuan for municipal-level champions [3][4]. Group 3: Benefits of Being a Champion Enterprise - Champion enterprises receive various policy supports, including financial aid, tax incentives, and market development assistance [5]. - They are seen as key players for future listings on capital markets, making it easier for them to attract financial capital [6]. - Banks offer low-interest loans and special credit limits to champion enterprises, significantly reducing their financing costs [7]. - The title enhances brand influence and product recognition, serving as a quality assurance for the enterprises [8]. Group 4: Support from Research Institutions - Professional research institutions like Qianzhan Industry Research Institute assist enterprises in gathering market information and preparing application materials for champion status [9][17].

Market Overview - On July 28, 2025, A-shares saw collective gains across the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.12%, the Shenzhen Component Index by 0.44%, and the ChiNext Index by 0.96%. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets exceeded 1.7 trillion yuan [1]. Innovation Drug Sector - Innovation drug-related ETFs led the market with significant gains, including the Innovation Drug ETF Hong Kong-Shenzhen (159622) rising by 4.10%, and the Hong Kong Innovation Drug 50 ETF (513780) increasing by 4.04% [1]. - A notable announcement from Heng Rui Medicine involved a potential license-out collaboration with GlaxoSmithKline (GSK) worth up to $12.5 billion, covering a clinical-stage respiratory innovation drug and up to 11 non-clinical candidates. This news led to a surge in Heng Rui's stock, reaching a four-year high in A-shares and over 16% increase in H-shares [2]. ETF Performance - The top-performing ETFs included several innovation drug-related funds, with multiple ETFs achieving gains above 3.70% [1]. - Conversely, the energy sector faced declines, with the top ETF, the Sci-Tech Comprehensive Aluminum ETF (589300), dropping by 14.01% [3]. Trading Activity - The trading volume for the Short-term Bond ETF (211360) was the highest at 33.9 billion yuan, followed by the Silver Hua Daily ETF (511880) at 21.0 billion yuan [4]. - The turnover rate for the Benchmark National Bond ETF (511100) was the highest at 552.67%, indicating strong trading activity in this segment [5][6].

Core Viewpoint - The ETF market showed mixed performance at midday, with certain ETFs experiencing significant gains while others faced notable declines [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Hong Kong Stock Connect Non-Bank ETF (513750) led the gains with an increase of 2.57% [1] - The Innovative Drug ETF Tianhong (517380) rose by 2.11% [1] - The Pharmaceutical ETF (562050) saw an increase of 2.10% [1] - Conversely, the Sci-Tech Innovation Index ETF Jiashi (589300) experienced a significant drop of 14.61% [1] - The Energy and Chemical ETF (159981) declined by 3.98% [1] - The Coal ETF (515220) fell by 2.96% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - Overseas, the Fed may be patient in cutting interest rates due to strong economic data, and the progress of tariff negotiations has made the trade situation clearer, leading to a short - term rebound in the US dollar index. The progress of US - EU trade negotiations has boosted global risk appetite. Domestically, China's economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, but consumption and investment slowed down significantly in June. The "anti - involution" policy and the introduction of stable - growth policies for ten major industries have boosted domestic risk appetite in the short term [2]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to fluctuate strongly in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long. Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see. In the commodity sector, black metals may have increased short - term fluctuations, and it is advisable to wait and see; non - ferrous metals may rebound in the short term, and it is advisable to be cautiously long; energy and chemicals may fluctuate in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see; precious metals may fluctuate at high levels, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Summary by Directory Macro Finance - **Stock Index**: Affected by sectors such as hydropower, liquor, and diversified finance, the domestic stock market declined slightly. Although economic growth in the first half of the year was higher than expected, consumption and investment slowed down in June. The "anti - involution" policy and stable - growth policies have boosted risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward drive has increased, and it is advisable to be cautiously long in the short term, paying attention to correction risks [3]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Treasury bonds are expected to correct from high - level fluctuations in the short term, and it is advisable to wait and see [2]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel futures and spot markets continued to rebound last Friday, but the night - session prices fluctuated. The sharp decline in coking coal prices led to a correction in the steel market. Real - world demand remains weak, and the apparent consumption of five major steel products decreased by 1.98 tons week - on - week. Supply decreased by 1.22 tons week - on - week, mainly due to the decline in hot - rolled coil production. There may be production restrictions around the September 3 parade, and the short - term supply increase is limited. It is advisable to treat the steel market as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The futures and spot prices of iron ore corrected last Friday. The weekly iron - water output decreased slightly, and the room for further growth in iron ore demand is limited. Steel mills mainly purchase on demand. The supply of medium - grade powder in ports is sufficient, the block - ore resources are concentrated, and the supply of low - grade powder has been supplemented. The global iron - ore shipment volume increased by 122 tons week - on - week, but the shipments from Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the shipments from non - mainstream mines increased significantly. The port inventory increased slightly. It is advisable to treat the iron - ore price as a range - bound market in the short term [4]. Non - Ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The US has reached trade agreements with Japan and the EU, and tariffs are generally easing. The US economy remains resilient, but the manufacturing industry is weakening, while the eurozone manufacturing industry is stabilizing. The future trend of copper prices depends on the tariff implementation time. Short - term stable - growth plans are sentimentally positive for copper prices. The current spot TC of copper concentrate is - 42.63 dollars/ton, and Comex copper inventories are approaching 250,000 short tons [9][10]. - **Aluminum**: Fundamentally, the situation is weakening, with a slight increase in domestic social inventories and a significant increase in LME inventories. Although the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's document has boosted market sentiment, the actual impact is expected to be limited. It is advisable not to short for the time being and wait for the sentiment to cool down [10]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising, leading to losses and even production cuts. It is in the off - season for demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but the upside is limited [10]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has increased to 55.51%, and the supply of tin mines is expected to be loose. Terminal demand is weak, and the inventory has increased by 230 tons. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside will be suppressed in the medium term [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The exchange has restricted the position of the LC2509 contract, and the commodity sentiment has declined. There are many supply - side disturbances under the "anti - involution" background. It is advisable to wait and see and look for opportunities to go long after the correction. The weekly output of lithium carbonate decreased by 2.5% to 18,630 tons, and the weekly operating rate was 48.6%. The price of imported lithium ore has rebounded, and the social inventory and warehouse - receipt inventory have increased [12]. - **Industrial Silicon**: The "anti - involution" market has driven the futures and spot prices of industrial silicon above the full cost of the main low - cost area, but there are inventory and supply pressures above. The demand for silicone has decreased due to a fault - shutdown. It is necessary to be vigilant against short - term correction risks [13]. - **Polysilicon**: The spot price remained stable last week, and the futures price had a high premium. The number of warehouse receipts increased. It is necessary to pay attention to the convergence of the basis. The inventory increased slightly, and the prices of N - type silicon wafers, battery cells, and components increased. Under the influence of the "anti - involution" policy in the photovoltaic industry, the price of silicon wafers increased by 35% in July, and the production schedule decreased by 10% [14]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The recent driving force in the oil market is limited. The strengthening of the US dollar and the weakening confidence in the US reaching an agreement with major trading partners have led to a slight decline in oil prices. The probability of the US and Europe reaching an agreement is 50%, which may threaten energy demand. The inventory is low, and the spot market has not shown obvious signs of weakness. The strengthening of the US dollar may continue to suppress priced commodities, and oil prices are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [15]. - **Asphalt**: The price of asphalt has corrected with the sector and continued to fluctuate at a low level. The inventory has not shown obvious signs of depletion, and the overall demand is average. The basis has rebounded slightly, mainly due to the decline in the futures price. The social inventory is slightly accumulating. After the peak season, the market expectation will gradually decline. The short - term absolute price will follow the crude - oil center, but the upside of the futures price is limited due to the inventory situation [15]. - **PX**: The short - term PTA operating rate remains high, and the tight supply situation of PX continues. The overseas price has risen to 874 US dollars, and the price difference between PX and naphtha has also risen to 293 US dollars. However, the PTA processing fee has dropped to a six - month low, which may lead to production cuts in leading plants. PX occupies too much industrial - chain profit, which may lead to downstream negative feedback risks. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, and the upside is not overly optimistic [15]. - **PTA**: The spot - trading volume is still declining, and some spot prices have weakened to a discount of 5 yuan to the main contract. The main - contract price has weakened with the futures market. The downstream operating rate remains low at 88.7%, and downstream production cuts still exist. The PTA processing fee has remained at a low level of around 150, which may lead to a reduction in the operating rate. The short - term inventory is slightly accumulating, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [16]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: The port inventory has decreased slightly to 54.4 tons, and the import volume has remained low. The coal - chemical products have risen slightly due to capacity - adjustment news. However, there is an expectation of the resumption of domestic shutdown and maintenance plants, the short - term downstream operating rate remains low, and the terminal orders in the off - season have not shown unexpected growth. The futures price has failed to break through the pressure level and is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [16]. - **Short - Fiber**: The price of crude oil has fluctuated moderately, but the short - fiber price has declined with the sector. The terminal orders are still average, and the operating rate has bottomed out but has not rebounded significantly. The short - fiber inventory has decreased slightly, but more significant inventory depletion needs to wait until the peak - season demand stocking in August. The short - fiber price is expected to follow the polyester end in the medium term and can be shorted on rallies [16]. - **Methanol**: The coal - mine capacity - verification policy has pushed up coal prices, which has strengthened the support for methanol. Under the "anti - involution" policy, the market is overheated, and the short - term price is still strong. Fundamentally, the upside of methanol is limited by plant restart, increased imports, and compressed MTO profits. It is necessary to be vigilant against the expected difference near the Politburo meeting, and it is advisable to be cautiously long or wait and see for conservatives [16]. - **PP**: Affected by multiple policies such as "anti - involution", "chemical - plant assessment", and coal inspections, the PP price has rebounded, and the bullish market has continued. The short - term price is strong, but the futures price will face a pressure level, and the supply - demand situation is still weak. It is advisable to wait and see [17]. - **LLDPE**: Short - term macro - policies have boosted commodity prices, and polyethylene has followed the upward trend. In the medium and long term, the oversupply situation has not changed significantly, and downstream demand has weakened during the price increase. The import profit has increased significantly, which may lead to a worse - than - expected fundamental situation. It is expected to be strong in the short term and weak in the medium and long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The impact of extreme heat in the US soybean - producing areas has decreased. Although the weekly crop - quality rate has slightly decreased, the hot and humid weather is generally beneficial to crop growth. US soybean exports have cooled down, and the news of direct domestic imports of South American soybean meal has weakened China's dependence on US soybeans. Currently, US soybeans are slightly under pressure, but the bullish market for soybean oil provides support. The market is optimistic about the Sino - US negotiations next week, which also provides phased support for US soybeans [18]. - **Palm Oil**: Since July, the production of Malaysian palm oil has progressed smoothly, the exports have weakened month - on - month, and the inventory - accumulation expectation is strong. Fundamentally, India has low oil inventories and high cost - performance, and there is an expectation of improved exports during the festival - stocking period. In the related market, crude oil has fluctuated, and the biodiesel policy has no room for fermentation. The domestic related oil fundamentals are under pressure, and the soybean - palm oil price has rebounded with the correction of palm oil, but the price inversion is still serious. In addition, the arrival of imported palm oil in China has increased, the spot circulation in the off - season is average, and it is close to the near - month import cost line. It is expected that the pressure of selling hedging at high prices may still exist. The palm - oil market is bullish, but the upside resistance has increased significantly. It is advisable to be cautious when chasing long positions [19]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The decline in US soybean and Brazilian export prices has led to a weak adjustment in the expectation of domestic long - term soybean imports. In addition, the increase in direct domestic imports of soybean meal and the reduction of soybean and soybean - meal export tariffs in Argentina have weakened the market's concern about the shortage of soybeans and soybean meal in the fourth quarter. The correction of the futures prices of the 01 contracts of soybean meal and soybean No. 2 has basically priced in the logic of cost decline and is anchored to the cost of direct - imported soybean meal for support. The negative news adjustment has ended, and it is necessary to pay attention to the trend of the US soybean market in the next stage. It is expected that the soybean - meal price will stabilize in the short term. However, if the US soybean production - increase expectation remains stable, there may be a further expanding bearish market at the end of the crop - growth period in late August [20]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Oil**: The soybean - oil inventory pressure is prominent, the terminal consumption is still in the off - season, and the basis quotes in various regions have continued to weaken. Currently, the soybean - meal price has declined significantly, and the cost has not changed significantly. The soybean - meal price has received seesaw support in the short term. In addition, the fundamental expectation of related palm oil is also poor. Therefore, the soybean - palm oil price difference is expected to have a phased upward trend in the short term. For rapeseed oil, the domestic port inventory is high, the circulation is slow, and with the increase in direct - import channels for rapeseed and oil meal, the concern about future supply is fading. The preference of long - position funds is not high, and the weak - range market may continue [20].