FICC日报 | 2025-09-10 股指调整，房地产逆势反弹 市场分析 非农数据被大幅修正。国内方面，国务院新闻办举行高质量完成"十四五"规划系列主题新闻发布会，工信部发布 五年来工业和通信业发展成就，并针对市场高度关注的行业非理性竞争、人工智能赋能新型工业化、5G新基建进 展、优化中小企业发展环境等话题作出回应。海外方面，美国政府公布初步基准修订数据，截至今年3月的一年间， 美国非农就业人数被下修91.1万，相当于每月平均少增近7.6万人。这是自2000年以来的最大下修幅度，比市场普 遍预期的还要糟糕。 策略 当前股指处于宽幅震荡调整阶段，市场正通过震荡消化筹码压力，可能经历月度级别的时间。尽管短期波动加剧， 但基于对中长期走势的乐观预期，股指难以出现大幅下行空间。在此阶段，积极运用衍生品工具进行风险对冲， 是较为合理的策略选择。 风险 若国内政策落地不及预期、海外货币政策超预期、地缘风险升级，股指有下行风险 2025年期货市场研究报告 第1页 请仔细阅读本报告最后一页的免责声明 指数调整。现货市场，A股三大指数调整，沪指跌0.51%收于3807.29点，创业板指跌2.23%。行业方面，板块指数 跌多涨 ...

Market Overview - The Shanghai Composite Index increased by 0.26% with a trading volume of 1,013.91 million shares and a transaction value of 16,316.30 billion yuan, which is a decrease of 6.89% compared to the previous trading day [1] - A total of 2,382 stocks rose, with 54 hitting the daily limit, while 2,848 stocks fell, including 5 hitting the lower limit [1] Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors include: - Communication: up 3.42% with a transaction value of 1,228.20 billion yuan, an increase of 43.45% from the previous day, led by Yuan Dao Communication, which rose by 20.01% [1] - Electronics: up 2.70% with a transaction value of 2,660.86 billion yuan, an increase of 6.48%, led by Si Quan New Materials, which rose by 19.33% [1] - Media: up 1.67% with a transaction value of 571.93 billion yuan, an increase of 15.06%, led by Happiness Blue Sea, which rose by 15.42% [1] - The sectors with the largest declines include: - Electric Equipment: down 1.29% with a transaction value of 2,193.34 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.65%, led by Shang Neng Electric, which fell by 8.98% [2] - Comprehensive: down 1.17% with a transaction value of 48.00 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.46%, led by Dong Yang Guang, which fell by 2.50% [2] - Basic Chemicals: down 1.06% with a transaction value of 746.27 billion yuan, a decrease of 20.65%, led by Qi De New Materials, which fell by 8.20% [2]

中国房地产市场：政策巨变引航止跌回稳，转型升级曙光初现 曾经作为中国经济增长引擎的重要支撑，房地产行业近年来却步履维艰。然而，随着2025年9月一系列 重磅政策的密集出台，中国房地产市场调控思路发生了颠覆性的转变，清晰地勾勒出"明牌运行"的新范 式，这无疑为稳定市场预期、促进行业健康发展注入了里程碑式的动力。 市场回暖迹象初露，政策效力显现 此次房地产政策调整可谓"组合拳"出击，在"四个取消、四个降低、两个增加"的框架下，全面激活市场 潜力： "四个取消"： 破除限购、限售、限价的藩篱，取消普通住宅与非普通住宅的标准界定，极大释放了市 场购买力。 "四个降低"： 降低首付比例，下调存量房贷利率，同步引导新发放房贷利率走低，并减轻购房税费负 担，直接降低了购房成本，激发了刚需和改善性需求。 "两个增加"： 加大保障性住房供给，并为房企提供必要的金融支持，在满足基本住房需求的同时，也 为市场主体提供了生存与发展的空间。 专项债新政：化解库存，重塑供需 在众多新政中，专项债新政尤为亮眼。2025年高达4.4万亿元的专项债规模，其中相当一部分将用于土 地收储和收购存量商品房。这一举措精准地对准了当前市场面临的库存积压 ...

调查数据描绘出一幅令人沮丧的社会图景：近70%的美国人不再相信通过努力工作就能实现美国梦，这 一比例达到近15年来的峰值。这种普遍存在的焦虑情绪几乎渗透到社会的每个角落，无论受访者的年 龄、性别、教育程度或收入水平如何。值得注意的是，年收入超过10万美元的家庭中，仍有65%对经济 前景持负面看法。 政治立场与经济感受之间的关联同样引人注目。调查通过六个维度综合评估发现，55%的共和党支持者 对经济感到悲观，而民主党支持者的这一比例高达90%。斯坦福大学经济学教授尼尔·马奥尼对此表示 忧虑：这确实令人沮丧。美国作为超级大国的核心优势之一，就是国民那种'不懈的乐观'精神。正是这 种精神，在过去数十年里推动着创业浪潮和技术创新。 8月28日，美国加利福尼亚州阿罕布拉市一处独栋住宅前，一块褪色的待售标牌在烈日下显得格外醒 目。这栋标价85万美元的三居室房屋已在市场上挂牌超过90天，却鲜有买家问津。这一幕生动反映了当 前美国房地产市场的持续疲软，也折射出更深层次的经济困境。 《华尔街日报》与NORC研究机构联合开展的最新民调揭示了一个令人不安的社会现实：美国民众对经 济前景的悲观情绪正达到历史高点。这项覆盖全美2000 ...

当前房地产市场依然低迷是不争的事实，在多重政策利好作用下，持续下行的幅度在趋缓也是客观现象，所以在这样的关键节点，该如何趁热打铁让房地产 尽快止跌回稳，则成了当前最重要的政策部署。 我虽然特讨厌买涨不买跌的逻辑怪象，但现实中又不得不承认这样的逻辑在左右着市场的走向。也就是说，即使买房自住，其实受买涨不买跌的影响也是巨 大的。这也就不难理解楼市在房价久未止跌的情况下，购房者又多么没办法地保持理性观望了。 现在地方缺钱，开发商缺钱，老百姓也缺钱，即使你有钱，刚需的房子卖不动，那么想改善的人群房子也卖不掉，想买房还是买不了。这种循环就无法形成 闭环，导致很难有解。 房地产作为资金密集型行业，你越是需要钱的时候，就越没人给你钱。"晴天送伞、雨天收伞"的行为更断了你的后路。房地产行业的发展模式本质上就 是"金融驱动型"模式，在房企拿地、开发、销售的全流程，这种"命脉"环节哪一个地方都不能出问题，这种依赖程度远超其他行业。 老百姓也是如此，想买房可能需要几代人的共同努力，杠杆也是加到了没边，但我认为银行降低首付比例并不是最优解，降低房贷利率比降低首付更科学。 因为15%的首付比例已经很低了，在大城市几百万的房子，85%的 ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records discuss the macroeconomic environment, particularly focusing on the U.S. economy and its transition into a fiscal dominance era, which is expected to influence global markets positively, especially in developed countries like the U.S., Europe, and Japan [2][3]. Core Insights and Arguments 1. **Fiscal Dominance Era**: The U.S. is entering a fiscal dominance era where monetary policy will need to align with fiscal policy, leading to increased economic demand through investments and maintaining ample liquidity, particularly in dollars [2][3]. 2. **Economic Cycles**: The nominal economic cycle is at a low point, with expectations of a new upward cycle due to fiscal and monetary policy coordination. Global liquidity, especially in dollars, is also expected to enter a new easing phase, benefiting asset prices [3][4]. 3. **Increased Demand for Resources**: The re-industrialization and re-militarization in the U.S. and Europe will lead to a trend increase in demand for global resources and capital goods, with corporate capital expenditures expected to accelerate [4][6]. 4. **U.S. Small Business Recovery**: Small businesses, which account for over half of U.S. employment, are showing signs of recovery, with improvements in operational conditions and potential wage growth due to rising turnover rates [7][11]. 5. **Real Estate Market Stimulus**: The Trump administration may declare a housing emergency to stimulate the real estate market, potentially lowering mortgage rates and implementing unconventional measures to encourage lending [9][11]. 6. **Corporate Investment Trends**: There is a notable rebound in corporate equipment investment and durable goods orders, driven by policies like the "Great America Act," which incentivizes capital expenditures [10][11]. 7. **Future Policy Environment**: The U.S. is expected to maintain high fiscal deficits (around 6.4% for FY2024) and a loose monetary policy, with M2 growth rebounding, indicating a supportive environment for economic growth [11][12]. 8. **Inflation Outlook**: Inflation is projected to rise in the coming months, with the Fed likely to increase its tolerance for inflation under the Trump administration, which could support economic growth [16][17]. 9. **Global Market Dynamics**: The records highlight a potential shift in global capital flows, with emerging markets, particularly China, expected to benefit from a weaker dollar and increased liquidity [30][34]. Additional Important Insights - **Liquidity Risks**: The current dollar liquidity cycle is at a low point, with risks of liquidity events if bank reserves fall below safe thresholds [23]. - **Impact of External Markets**: The selling pressure in European and Japanese bonds may transmit to the U.S. bond market, potentially triggering a liquidity shock [26]. - **Foreign Investment in China**: There is a resurgence of interest from foreign investors in the Chinese market, particularly in Hong Kong, indicating a positive outlook for future trading volumes [35]. - **A-Share Market Dynamics**: The A-share market's performance may not align with economic data, as historical patterns suggest stock prices often recover before real estate prices stabilize [37]. This summary encapsulates the key points and insights from the conference call records, providing a comprehensive overview of the current economic landscape and its implications for various markets.

Group 1 - The overall profit of A-shares in the first half of 2025 increased by 2.44% year-on-year, but the growth rate has slowed down compared to the first quarter [2][9][10] - The net profit of non-financial A-shares rose by 1.03% year-on-year, a decrease of 3.48 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] - The net profit of the non-financial and non-oil and gas A-shares increased by 4.82% year-on-year, with a decrease of 3.08 percentage points from the first quarter [9][10] Group 2 - The total revenue of all A-shares increased by 0.03% year-on-year, marking a return to positive growth after a year of decline [15][19] - The revenue growth rates for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 7.04% and 4.81% respectively, while the North Stock A-share saw a growth of 5.66% [18][19] - The main board's revenue growth rate decreased by 0.5% year-on-year, but improved by 0.25 percentage points from the first quarter [19] Group 3 - The overall gross profit margin for A-shares was 17.84%, a slight increase from the first quarter [22][24] - The gross profit margins for the ChiNext and Sci-Tech Innovation Board were 23.25% and 28.98% respectively, with the latter maintaining a high level [24][25] - The gross profit margin for the main board decreased by 0.03 percentage points compared to the first quarter [24] Group 4 - Major expenses for non-financial enterprises saw a year-on-year decline, with sales expenses down by 2.29% and financial expenses down by 15.38% [29][30] - The revenue and cost growth rates for non-financial enterprises were -0.18% and -0.17% respectively, indicating a narrowing decline [29][30] - The overall economic environment is expected to improve, with policies aimed at boosting consumption and stabilizing infrastructure investment [30] Group 5 - The return on equity (ROE) for all A-shares remained stable at 7.73%, with slight variations across different sectors [33][34] - The sales net profit margin for all A-shares increased slightly to 7.87% [33][34] - The total asset turnover ratio for all A-shares improved, indicating better efficiency in asset utilization [33][34] Group 6 - In the upstream sector, the performance of the coal industry was weak, with revenue and net profit declining significantly [41][42] - The agricultural sector showed signs of recovery, with a revenue increase of 8.95% and a notable rise in net profit [42] - The machinery equipment sector experienced steady growth, with revenue and net profit increasing by 7.26% and 18.08% respectively [44] Group 7 - The real estate sector continued to face pressure, with a year-on-year revenue decline of 11.92% [46] - The consumer sector showed overall performance slowdown, with the automotive sector's revenue growth rate decreasing significantly [47] - The TMT sector exhibited mixed results, with the electronic sector showing strong growth while the media sector experienced a decline [48] Group 8 - The banking sector's net profit growth turned positive, with a year-on-year increase of 0.77% [49] - Non-bank financial institutions continued to perform well, with a net profit increase of 18.36% [49] - Other sectors such as transportation and defense showed improvement, while environmental and public utility sectors faced challenges [50]

Market Performance - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 1.24% to 3812.51 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index increased by 3.89% to 12590.56 points, and the ChiNext Index surged by 6.55% to 2958.18 points, indicating a strong market performance across major indices [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing markets reached 23,488 billion yuan, a decrease of over 2,300 billion yuan compared to the previous day [1] Sector Analysis - Key sectors such as semiconductors, automotive, and pharmaceuticals saw significant gains, with solid-state batteries and lithium battery concepts experiencing explosive growth [1] - The CPO concept, composite copper foil concept, and consumer electronics concept also showed strong performance [1] Real Estate Policy Changes - Shenzhen has relaxed its real estate regulations, particularly in non-core areas, which is expected to help reduce inventory and support the housing market [3] - The new policy is more aggressive than recent measures in Beijing and Shanghai, potentially stabilizing the real estate market in Shenzhen [3] Solid-State Battery Industry - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has issued a plan to support the development of solid-state battery technology, indicating strong governmental backing [4] - The policy is expected to accelerate the industrialization process of solid-state batteries, with significant growth in orders for related equipment observed since June [4] Computer Industry Growth - The computer industry is experiencing a notable increase in revenue and net profit, driven by factors such as sustained CAPEX, technological upgrades, and improved supply [5] - AI applications are significantly contributing to growth, with expectations for continued acceleration in the second half of 2025 [5] Robotics Sector Developments - Tesla's Optimus remains a central figure in the robotics market, with plans for mass production and ambitious delivery targets [7] - The sector is expected to see continuous positive developments, with various companies making strides in humanoid robotics [7] Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is focusing on fostering emerging industries, including AI and robotics, to enhance the competitiveness of the information and communication sectors [8] Hang Seng Index Adjustments - The Hang Seng Index will increase its constituent stocks from 85 to 88, with new additions including China Telecom, JD Logistics, and Pop Mart [9] Tesla AI Chip Developments - Tesla is working on a new AI chip, with expectations that the upcoming AI6 chip will be the best to date, showcasing the company's commitment to advancing AI technology [10]

Group 1 - The A-share market opened with mixed performance among the three major indices, with the Shanghai Composite Index down 0.02%, the Shenzhen Component Index up 0.33%, and the ChiNext Index up 0.21% [1] - The precious metals sector opened strong, with Western Gold rising over 6% and Zhaojin Mining up over 3%, as spot gold prices surpassed $3600 per ounce last week, setting a new high [1] - Battery concept stocks became active again, with Tianji Co., Soft Control Co., and Fengyuan Co. hitting the daily limit, while CATL launched its NP3.0 battery safety technology and the Shenxing Pro battery [1] Group 2 - The aquaculture sector saw an initial surge, with Tianyu Biological hitting the daily limit and Muyuan Foods rising over 3%, as the three major listed pig companies reported both month-on-month and year-on-year increases in August pig sales [1] - New real estate policies were introduced in Shenzhen, leading to a broad rally in real estate stocks, with Shoukai Co. rising over 7% and Nanshan Holdings up over 6% [1]

// 市场要闻 // 今年以来，港股通南向资金交易活跃，ETF日均交易量也创下自互联互通开放以来的新高。 近日， 港交所 市场部主管余学勤表示，内地投资者对港股兴趣持续升温，海外长期资金也在 回流。 恒生指数 公司CEO巫婉雯表示，ETF对指数生态圈的形成非常重要，因内地投资者需 求旺盛， 恒生指数 公司推出了跨市场的产品，例如覆盖港股+美股的 生物科技指数 ，港股 +A股的科技指数等，未来生态圈将更加完善。 据 央视新闻 ，当地时间9月5日，美国总统特朗普在其社交媒体"真实社交"发文，批评欧盟 对 谷歌 的35亿美元罚款，称这一举动"极其不公平"。 特朗普警告，如果欧洲继续对美国科 技巨头采取类似措施，他将被迫启动"301条款"程序，推翻这些"不公平的处罚"，以保护美 国纳税企业的利益。 人社部 透露，2025年全国城市联合招聘高校毕业生秋季专场活动暨新疆高校毕业生招聘大会 在新疆乌鲁木齐启动。 作为今年秋季全国联合招聘的首场活动，本次招聘会吸引了两万多人 参加，500多家企事业单位涵盖能源资源、商贸物流、信息科技、先进制造等领域，提供了 1.5万多个就业岗位。2025年全国城市联合招聘高校毕业生秋季专场活 ...