宏观周报 2026 年 03 月 01 日 宏观研究团队 谋篇"十五五"迎两会；中东地缘风险升级 ——宏观周报 | 何宁（分析师） | 沈美辰（分析师） | | --- | --- | | hening@kysec.cn | shenmeichen@kysec.cn | | 证书编号：S0790522110002 | 证书编号：S0790524110002 | |  | 国内宏观政策：谋篇"十五五"迎两会；深耕"人工智能+" | 近期（2 月 1 日-2 月 28 日）国内宏观主要聚焦以下几个方面： 政策基调方面，2 月 27 日，中共中央政治局召开会议，讨论"十五五"规划纲 要草案和《政府工作报告》。会议指出，做好今年政府工作，要实施更加积极有 为的宏观政策，增强政策前瞻性针对性协同性，持续扩大内需、优化供给，做优 增量、盘活存量，因地制宜发展新质生产力，纵深推进全国统一大市场建设，持 续防范化解重点领域风险，着力稳就业、稳企业、稳市场、稳预期。国务院总理 李强 2 月 24 日主持召开国务院常务会议，部署做好春节假期后政府工作，要求 着力抓好重点任务落实，支持地方和企业积极探索打造新增长点。 基建与产业 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the Spring Festival, the market pricing logic shifted from "liquidity" to the re - evaluation of "fundamentals and policy paths". The introduction of the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of some real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations. The sustainability of the weak rebound needs to be verified, and the real - estate cycle will continue to be a point of long - short game for interest rates this year [2][6]. - Through five - dimensional comparison, it is found that there is a significant "structural temperature difference" within the real - estate cycle, and long - term interest rates match the demand side most. The current long - term interest rate quantile is slightly lower than the cycle position indicated by the real - estate demand side, and the pricing deviation is worthy of continuous tracking [4][25]. - In the short term, the weak rebound of real - estate transactions and the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" have stabilized the short - term fundamental expectations. The growth target of the Two Sessions is expected to be lower than last year. The monetary policy remains loose, and the probability of a short - term interest rate cut is greater than a reserve requirement ratio cut. The bond market microstructure is still in a favorable range, but the main risks such as inflation have not reversed. Interest rates may shift from a rebound to a shock in the short term [4][26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Post - Festival Game Focus Shift - After the Spring Festival, interest rates fluctuated around the 1.8% key resistance level. The pre - festival trading focused on liquidity, while after the festival, with the approaching of the Two Sessions, the market focused on fundamentals and policy paths. The optimization of policies such as the "Shanghai Seven - Point Plan" and the weak rebound of real - estate high - frequency indicators catalyzed the discussion on real - estate expectations [2][6]. 3.2 Five - Dimensional Comparison of the Real - Estate Cycle and Interest Rate Cycle - **Demand - side Comparison**: In January 2026, the real - estate demand sentiment was at the 25% quantile since 2021, and the monthly average quantiles of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were about 20% and 25% respectively, which were basically matched. In February, the interest rate quantiles declined, with the 10 - year and 30 - year rates dropping to about 13% and 23% respectively, slightly lower than the January real - estate demand cycle position [3][10]. - **High - frequency Indicator Comparison**: In February 2026, the real - estate cycle position under the high - frequency caliber (27%) was slightly higher than the monthly average quantile of 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates (23%) [3][11]. - **Development and Investment Indicator Comparison**: As of December 2025, the comprehensive quantile of development and investment was about 10%, and the long - term interest rate quantile was higher than the real - estate cycle position reflected by development investment [3][16]. - **Upstream Raw Material Price Comparison**: As of February 2026, the comprehensive building material price quantile was slightly lower than 10%, lower than the long - term interest rate level [3][18]. - **Real - Estate Credit Cycle Comparison**: As of January 2026, the real - estate credit cycle indicators were still near the lowest level since 2021, and the quantile levels of 10 - year and 30 - year Treasury bond interest rates were higher than this credit cycle sentiment position [3][19]. 3.3 Bond Market Performance - **Funds and Interest Rates**: In the first week after the Spring Festival, the central bank net - withdrew funds. Due to the combination of fund withdrawal and the end of the month, the fund rate center increased slightly [31]. - **Bond Yields**: Most Treasury bond yields rose this week, with the ultra - long - term yields rising significantly. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield decreased slightly to 1.78%, and the 10 - 1 - year term spread narrowed from 48bp to 46bp [32]. - **Bond Market Trends**: The bond market first fell and then rose this week. Affected by the relaxation of Shanghai's real - estate policies, the 10 - year Treasury bond yield rose in the early stage, and then rose due to the safe - haven sentiment caused by geopolitical conflicts [32][33]. - **Fund Duration**: From February 24 to 27, the median value of the public fund duration was basically stable at 2.67 years, and the duration divergence index decreased by 0.01 to 0.60 [37]. - **Interest Rate Synchronous Indicators**: Among the ten interest rate synchronous indicators released this week, "positive" and "negative" signals each accounted for 5/10. Compared with last week, the enterprise medium - and long - term loan balance growth rate and the US dollar index sent "positive" signals [40]. 3.4 Local Bond Issuance - **Issuance Scale**: This week, the local bond issuance scale was 173.9 billion yuan, and the net financing was 501.4 billion yuan, which decreased compared with the previous holiday. Compared with the same week in 2025, the issuance and net financing scale also decreased [42]. - **Issuance Term**: The weighted average issuance term of local bonds this week was 22 years, which was significantly higher than the 15 - year term before the holiday. The weighted average issuance term of special refinancing bonds increased by 12 years to 25 years [47]. - **Issuance Spread**: The weighted average value of the spread between the local bond issuance interest rate and the secondary local bond of the same term was 0bp this week, which continued to rise compared with - 3bp before the holiday. The issuance spreads of refinancing bonds increased significantly [49]. - **Issuance Progress**: As of February 27, 2026, the cumulative local bond issuance was 2.02 trillion yuan, which was significantly higher than 1.69 trillion yuan in the same period in 2025. The actual issuance progress in February was 121% of the planned issuance, and it is expected that the issuance will increase slightly next week [52][59].

证券研究报告 | 行业定期报告 2026 年 03 月 01 日 正月初八至初十新房和二手房网签面积均高于去年农历同期 ——样本城市周度高频数据全追踪 周期/房地产 一、核心要点 图 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 26 日） 资料来源：Wind、房管局、招商证券等；备注：正月初八至初十新房和二手房网签面积农 历同比分别为+9%和+21%。 表 1：样本城市新房及二手房网签面积同比（截至 2 月 26 日） | 新房（1 | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 26 日） | 二手房（1 | 月 | 1 日-2 月 | 26 日） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 城市能级 | 同比 | 较 | 12 月 | 城市能级 | 同比 | | 较 12 月 | | | 样本城市 | -20% | -收窄 | +3 PCT | 样本城市 | -1% | -收窄 | | +26 PCT | | （39 城） | | | | （16 城） | | | | | | 一线城市 | -12% | -收窄 | +18 PCT | ...

- The report introduces a style rotation solution, which includes a value-growth style rotation strategy and a large-small cap style rotation strategy. The value-growth style rotation strategy scores 6 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the growth style[2][6] - The large-small cap style rotation strategy scores 2 for March 2026, indicating a higher score for the small cap style[2][8] - The industry rotation solution is constructed using four dimensions: macroeconomic indicators, mid-level fundamental indicators, micro-level technical indicators, and trading congestion indicators. The comprehensive score for the industry rotation strategy since 2017 shows an annualized return of 18.4%, with a benchmark annualized return of 4.9%, resulting in an excess annualized return of 13.5% and a monthly IC average of 12.1%[2][11][12] - The macroeconomic indicators divide the primary industries into five sectors: upstream cycle, midstream manufacturing, downstream consumption, TMT, and big finance. For March 2026, the macroeconomic growth dimension is in the "deepening recession/expansion slowdown" stage, and the liquidity dimension is in the "easing intensification/tightening slowdown" stage[15] - The fundamental indicators include historical prosperity, prosperity changes, and prosperity expectations. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by fundamental indicators are non-ferrous metals, automobiles, electronics, non-bank finance, and machinery, while the bottom five are home appliances, real estate, construction, coal, and agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery[17] - The technical indicators include index momentum, leading stock momentum, and K-line patterns. For March 2026, the top five industries ranked by technical indicators are communication, national defense and military industry, basic chemicals, non-ferrous metals, and computers, while the bottom five are real estate, food and beverage, transportation, electricity and public utilities, and retail[20] - The congestion indicators include financing inflows, turnover rate, and transaction ratio. For March 2026, the top five industries with high congestion are media, petrochemicals, building materials, national defense and military industry, and non-ferrous metals, while the bottom five industries with low congestion are automobiles, textiles and apparel, non-bank finance, banking, and home appliances[21] - The comprehensive industry rotation solution combines the positive scores of the macro, fundamental, and technical dimensions, while negatively configuring the congestion factor. For March 2026, the top five recommended industries are communication, non-ferrous metals, electronics, automobiles, and national defense and military industry, while the bottom seven are real estate, construction, home appliances, coal, food and beverage, retail, and electricity and public utilities[25] Model Backtest Results - Value-growth style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 6 for March 2026[6] - Large-small cap style rotation strategy, comprehensive score: 2 for March 2026[8] - Industry rotation strategy, annualized return: 18.4%, benchmark annualized return: 4.9%, excess annualized return: 13.5%, monthly IC average: 12.1%[12][13]

Core Views - The market is expected to experience limited index space and focus on structural trends in March, influenced by geopolitical factors and policy expectations surrounding the upcoming Two Sessions and the 14th Five-Year Plan [2][12][23] - The geopolitical situation, particularly the US-Iran conflict, is identified as a significant variable affecting A-shares, with potential implications for commodity prices and global macroeconomic logic [4][12][14] - The market style is anticipated to become more balanced, with small and mid-cap stocks likely to continue outperforming, driven by liquidity from financing and quantitative private equity [4][12][15] Industry and Sector Recommendations - Key sectors to focus on include non-ferrous metals (industrial metals, energy metals, and minor metals), basic chemicals, machinery (automation and engineering), power equipment (batteries, grid equipment, wind power), electronics (semiconductors), and public utilities (electricity) [4][5][18] - The report emphasizes the importance of cyclical price increases and the expansion of AI hardware as core investment themes for March [4][12][18] - The anticipated policy support for traditional infrastructure and consumer services is expected to catalyze investment opportunities in these sectors [4][12][18] Market Liquidity and Capital Supply - March is projected to see continued net inflows of incremental capital, with a focus on the dynamics between financing funds and ETF redemptions [4][12][15] - The macro liquidity environment is expected to remain stable and abundant, supported by the central bank's monetary policy stance and the upcoming Two Sessions [4][12][15] Economic and Profitability Outlook - Profit expectations have been adjusted upward, particularly in resource products, information technology, and midstream manufacturing sectors [5][12] - The report notes that the profitability growth rate for the entire A-share market and non-financial sectors for 2026 has been slightly revised upward, indicating a positive outlook for these industries [5][12]

- The market saw a significant rise with the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 indices reaching new highs, and the CSI 500 index also nearing a new high[1][8] - The A-share prosperity index was observed to be 18.79 as of February 27, 2026, indicating an upward trend compared to the end of 2023[2][36] - The A-share sentiment index signals were observed to be empty for both bottom and top signals, leading to an overall empty signal[2][44] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio underperformed the benchmark by 1.22% this week, while the CSI 300 enhanced portfolio outperformed the benchmark by 0.22%[2][52][57] - Momentum factors showed higher excess returns, while size and residual volatility factors showed significant negative excess returns[2][62] - High profitability stocks performed well recently, while size and residual volatility factors performed poorly[2][62] - The A-share sentiment index was constructed by dividing the market into four quadrants based on volatility and trading volume changes, with only the quadrant of rising volatility and falling trading volume showing significant negative returns[2][38] - The CSI 500 enhanced portfolio achieved a return of 3.10% this week, underperforming the benchmark by 1.22%, with an excess return of 45.79% relative to the CSI 500 index since 2020 and a maximum drawdown of -10.19%[2][52] - The CSI 300 enhanced portfolio achieved a return of 1.30% this week, outperforming the benchmark by 0.22%, with an excess return of 46.24% relative to the CSI 300 index since 2020 and a maximum drawdown of -5.86%[2][57] - The market style analysis was conducted using the BARRA factor model, constructing ten categories of style factors including size, beta, momentum, residual volatility, non-linear size, valuation, liquidity, earnings yield, growth, and leverage[2][61] - The recent market style performance showed that liquidity factors were positively correlated with beta, momentum, and residual volatility, while value factors were negatively correlated with beta, residual volatility, and liquidity[2][62] - The performance attribution of major indices showed that the CSI 500, ChiNext, and Wind All A indices had significant exposure to liquidity factors, while the SSE Composite Index and SSE 50 had less exposure to liquidity factors and performed poorly in style factors this week[2][71]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the cyclical nature of economic and technological trends, predicting significant shifts in global dynamics by 2026, including a new wave of technological revolution led by AI, a surge in commodity prices, and the onset of a new economic cycle characterized by inflation and monetary tightening [2][4]. Group 1: Economic Cycles - The article identifies the end of a century-long economic cycle, with increasing income disparity, populism, and geopolitical tensions, leading to a global arms race [5][10]. - It highlights the emergence of a new Kondratiev wave driven by AI, which is expected to surpass the previous IT revolution, initiating substantial capital expenditures in new infrastructure [5][16]. - The article outlines the cyclical nature of various economic factors, including the real estate cycle, capacity cycle, inventory cycle, and debt cycle, all converging around 2026 [4][6]. Group 2: AI and Technological Revolution - AI is positioned as the catalyst for the fourth technological revolution, with a significant impact on national strength and global order, leading to a massive increase in capital spending on new infrastructure [5][17]. - The article notes that the AI revolution is in its early stages, with rapid advancements in GPU and large model technologies, paving the way for widespread commercial applications [18][19]. - It anticipates that AI will lead to transformative applications in various sectors, including autonomous driving, healthcare, and robotics, fundamentally altering the global landscape [18][19]. Group 3: Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is expected to experience a bifurcation, with core cities seeing price stabilization while lower-tier cities face prolonged downturns [6][19]. - The article predicts that by 2026, policies will shift from merely stabilizing the market to actively encouraging growth, including potential subsidies and relaxed purchasing restrictions [20][21]. - It emphasizes the need for continued policy support to stimulate demand and restore confidence in the real estate sector [20][21]. Group 4: Capacity and Inventory Cycles - The article discusses the transition in capacity cycles, with traditional industries undergoing adjustments while new productive forces, particularly AI, drive significant investments in infrastructure [23][25]. - It notes that the inventory cycle is moving from passive destocking to active restocking, although the recovery may be constrained by long-term pressures [27][29]. - The article highlights the role of "anti-involution" policies in improving supply-side dynamics and supporting price recovery in industrial sectors [27][29]. Group 5: Debt Cycle and Policy Outlook - The article outlines the ongoing deleveraging process in the household sector, with a focus on repairing balance sheets and the need for supportive fiscal and monetary policies [32][33]. - It anticipates that government leverage will increase, but the pace of fiscal action may be limited by local government financial constraints [37]. - The article suggests that 2026 will see a more aggressive policy stance aimed at stimulating new productive forces and addressing structural economic challenges [42][44]. Group 6: Asset Class Outlook - The article predicts a "confidence bull market" in the stock market, driven by technological advancements and a favorable policy environment [48][50]. - It highlights the expected rise in commodity prices, particularly in the context of a weakening dollar and global monetary easing [51][52]. - The article emphasizes the potential for the RMB to appreciate due to favorable economic conditions and improved export competitiveness [52].

证券研究报告 | 2026年03月01日 2026年02月28日 2026年03月01日 港股市场速览 优于大市 中上游表现强势，全局盈利预测显著上修 股价表现：中上游行业与大盘风格表现较优 本周，恒生指数+0.8%（上周-0.6%），恒生综指+0.4%（上周-0.7%）。风格 方面，大盘（恒生大型股+0.6%）＞小盘（恒生小型股-0.1%）＞中盘（恒生 中型股-0.4%）。 主要概念指数多数下跌。上涨的主要有恒生高股息（+1.5%）；下跌的主要 有恒生生物科技（-4.7%）。 国信海外选股策略组合分化。上涨的主要有红利贵族 50（+0.7%）；下跌的 主要有 ROE 策略进攻型（-1.6%）。 17 个行业上涨，13 个行业下跌。上涨的主要有：钢铁（+6.1%）、有色金属 （+4.6%）、基础化工（+3.9%）、银行（+3.4%）、煤炭（+3.4%）；下跌的 主要有：医药（-4.6%）、家电（-2.4%）、商贸零售（-1.9%）、轻工制造 （-1.8%）、计算机（-1.7%）。 估值水平：整体回落，中上游拉升 本周，恒生指数估值（动态预期 12 个月正数市盈率，后同）-0.8%至 11.3x； 恒生综指估值 ...

点击图片▲立即查看 " 每年年底到次年初，房价跌幅都有不同程度的收窄，原因在于，房东们想要等待 ' 金三银四 ' 的行情，所以不再主动降价。 " 文 /巴九灵（微信公众号：吴晓波频道） 开春了，上海市中心的房东们也"心生荡漾"。 几天前，上海打响新春稳楼市第一枪，简称"新沪七条"。 上海的楼市政策总是很费脑细胞，但综合多方的阅读理解后，这一次的本质，便是给房东们"拉生意"。 | 政策类型 | 原政策 | 新沪七条调整内容 | | --- | --- | --- | | 非沪籍限购(社保维度) | 1年社保仅购外环外:3年社 | 1年社保可购全市(外环内1 套):3年社保外环内限购2 | | | 保外环内限购1套 | 套 | | 非沪籍限购(居住证维度) | 无单独购房通道,仅认社保 | 居住证满5年,免社保/个税 | | | /个税 | 可购全市1套 | | 公积金直贷额度 | 家庭最高160万元 | 家庭最高240万元,多子女 | | | | +绿建最高324万元 | | 公积金贷款认定 | 认房又认贷,两次贷款后不 可再贷 | 认房不认贷,结清后无房/ 仅1 周 中 分 | | 沪籍房产税 | 成年子女首 ...

Market Performance Insights - Historical data shows a high probability of market gains before and after the Two Sessions, with the probability of increase being 76.2% for the Shanghai Composite Index in the 20 trading days before the sessions[19] - The average gain for the Shanghai Composite Index before the Two Sessions is 1.8%, while the average gain after is 3.1%[20] - The probability of small-cap stocks outperforming large-cap stocks is nearly 90% before the Two Sessions, but drops to 50% afterward[20] Sector Analysis - Resource sectors such as steel and non-ferrous metals have shown high probabilities of gains before the Two Sessions, with probabilities exceeding 80%[22] - Consumer sectors tend to perform better during the Two Sessions, with a 60% probability of gains in industries like food and beverage[20] - Post-Two Sessions, real estate and consumer sectors have a high probability of gains, with real estate at 76.2%[20] Policy Impact - The Two Sessions serve as a critical window for observing economic policy directions, influencing market sentiment and performance[24] - Pre-Two Sessions, there is typically an increase in growth-stabilizing policy expectations, leading to active trading[24] - Post-Two Sessions, the acceleration of policy implementation often boosts optimistic market expectations, particularly for cyclical sectors[24] Current Market Conditions - The spring market rally continues, with the Shanghai Composite Index showing a 3.7% increase since February 3, and a recent weekly gain of 2.0%[1] - Recent trading volumes have increased, with average daily trading rising from 2.1 trillion to 2.4 trillion yuan[1] - Leverage funds have shifted from outflows to inflows, indicating improved market sentiment, with net purchases reaching 258.7 billion yuan recently[1] Investment Strategy - A balanced allocation strategy is recommended, focusing on sectors like AI applications, resources, and real estate, given the current market dynamics[29] - The anticipated continuation of the spring rally is supported by positive macroeconomic policies and increased liquidity in the market[28] - The focus on expanding domestic demand is expected to be a key theme in the upcoming Two Sessions, influencing investment opportunities[24]