1月10日，在"2026年中国首席经济学家论坛"上，摩根士丹利中国首席经济学家邢自强表示，近期人 民币升值主要受美元贬值及春节前出口和消费季节性因素推动。人民币今年仍有升值空间，短期内一 季度、二季度可能在6.8左右，但年底仍存在不确定性。他强调，中国要解决经济内卷、地方政府激 励及财税体系问题，不可能仅依赖人民币升值实现经济平衡。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The improving regulatory environment is becoming a key factor driving institutions to further adopt crypto assets, with the proposed "Clarity Act" in Congress serving as an important catalyst [1] Group 1: Regulatory Developments - The "Clarity Act" aims to clarify the regulatory framework for tokenized assets and DeFi, delineating the regulatory boundaries between the SEC and CFTC [1] - This clarification is seen as a necessary prerequisite for unleashing institutional capital and promoting compliant participation in the crypto market [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights a significant surge in gold prices, which rose by 65% in 2025, reaching a historical high of $4549.71 per ounce, marking the largest annual increase since 1979 [1][3] - Morgan Stanley predicts that gold prices will rise to $4800 per ounce by Q4 2026, driven by declining interest rates, changes in Federal Reserve leadership, and continued purchases by central banks and funds [3] - Analysts from Bank of America also view gold as a crucial hedge in investment portfolios for 2026, estimating an average price of $4538 per ounce for the year [3] Group 2 - The decline of the US dollar is evident, with its share in global foreign exchange reserves dropping to just above 40%, the lowest level in decades, while the dollar index fell by 9.4% in 2025, marking its worst performance in eight years [1][3] - The increasing role of gold in sovereign reserves is a key driver of its price surge, as central banks actively accumulate gold to hedge against dollar risks, with significant increases in gold holdings reported by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) [4] - The unusual rise in prices of major metals like gold, silver, and copper signals the underlying weakness of the dollar, suggesting a potential for further depreciation of the dollar as alternative currencies may begin to appreciate [3][4]

Core Viewpoint - The market shows no significant tension ahead of the non-farm payroll report, with investors' expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's policy path stabilizing [1] Group 1: Employment Data Expectations - Goldman Sachs estimates that the new non-farm payroll number will be around 70,000, aligning with mainstream consensus [3] - As long as the results do not deviate significantly from this range, the impact is likely to confirm existing macroeconomic judgments rather than introduce new uncertainties [3] - A job addition in the range of 70,000 to 100,000 is seen as an ideal outcome, indicating economic expansion while avoiding concerns of overheating [3] Group 2: Market Reactions to Employment Data - If the data falls below 50,000, it may raise concerns about weakening growth momentum, leading to increased market volatility [4] - Conversely, if job growth exceeds expectations, such as surpassing 125,000, the market may reconsider the pace of policy adjustments, potentially delaying anticipated easing [4] - Current market structure suggests that Goldman Sachs does not expect significant volatility from this non-farm data, as investor positioning indicates limited bets on large single-day movements [4]

Group 1 - Fitch expects the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates twice in the first half of 2026, with the unemployment rate stabilizing at 4.6% [1] - Goldman Sachs reports that investor sentiment towards oil is at its most pessimistic level in nearly a decade, with over 59% of surveyed institutional investors bearish on the oil market [2] - Goldman Sachs forecasts a robust global economic growth of 2.8% in 2026, surpassing the market expectation of 2.6%, driven by a strong performance in the US and China [3] Group 2 - Guggenheim indicates that the market has largely absorbed geopolitical risks but remains cautious about headline risks that could impact stock market resilience [4] - UOB raises its gold price forecast due to increased demand for safe-haven assets amid rising geopolitical risks, projecting gold prices to reach $5,000 per ounce by Q4 2026 [5] - CICC anticipates a short-term supply gap in the wood chip market in 2026, leading to a potential increase in pulp prices as demand improves [6] Group 3 - Tianfeng Securities is optimistic about A-share gaming companies entering a strong product cycle in 2026, driven by improved competition and stable regulatory environments [7] - CITIC Securities expects an expansion in the issuance of local government bonds in 2026, with a focus on matching issuance pace with market conditions [8] - CITIC Securities predicts that the Hang Seng Index will undergo adjustments, with 38 stocks expected to enter the Hong Kong Stock Connect [9] Group 4 - CITIC Securities highlights the potential for increased domestic tourism revenue in 2026, estimating an annual increment of 500 to 1,650 billion yuan due to new policies promoting worker consumption [10] - CITIC Jian Investment identifies a bottoming opportunity in the liquor sector, suggesting that the current adjustment phase may soon reverse as market expectations improve [11] - Huatai Securities sees a recovery in the innovative drug sector in Hong Kong, driven by liquidity restoration and multiple catalysts expected in the upcoming year [12]

2026年全球市场开局强劲。但投资者可能会在本周五面临今年第一个真正的考验——美国劳工部将于北京时间今晚21点半公布12月就业数 据。而在同一天，美国最高法院还将就美国总统特朗普大部分关税的合法性做出最终裁决。 期权市场的交易员们目前正严阵以待，准备迎接可能是今年迄今为止波动性最大的一个交易日 ——标普500指数预计将出现大幅波动。根据 盈透证券首席市场策略师Steve Sosnick的说法，以周五到期的平值合约的定价估算，标普500指数周五预计将出现上下至少0.9%的波动。 Sosnick还质疑投资者是否已足够谨慎。他在一则评论中表示，"相对平静的市场意味着仍有一些意外发生的可能性。" 非农前瞻：两个多月来最"靠谱"的美国就业数据要来了？ 今晚这份非农报告之所以备受瞩目，在一定程度上或许是因为在不少业内人士看来，这或许是美国政府去年10月经历史上最长停摆以来所出 炉的"第一份相对靠谱的就业数据"。这也令这份报告的重要性不言而喻 ——今晚数据要么会巩固市场对美联储本月维持利率不变的预期， 要么会增强市场对美联储可能连续第四次降息的看法…… Natixis北美美国利率策略主管John Briggs就表示，12月 ...

来源：金融界AI电报 高盛研究部预测2026年全球经济预计将实现2.8%的稳健增长，高于市场普遍预期的2.6%。美国经济表 现将尤为突出，预计增长2.8%（市场预期2.0%），主要得益于关税拖累减弱、减税政策以及更为宽松 的金融环境。中国经济也将保持良好势头，预计增长4.8%（市场预期4.5%），强劲的出口将有效抵消 国内需求疲软的影响。尽管面临长期挑战，欧元区经济前景依然乐观，预计增长1.3%（市场预期 1.1%），得益于德国的财政刺激和西班牙的强劲增长。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The December CPI data in the U.S. is expected to show a significant rebound due to statistical distortions from the government shutdown, rather than genuine inflationary pressures [1][4]. Group 1: CPI Predictions - Morgan Stanley forecasts a notable increase in the core CPI for December, with a month-on-month growth of 0.36%, significantly higher than the average of 0.08% in October and November [1][3]. - The likelihood of the core CPI rounding to 0.3% or 0.4% is considered equal, but the risk of reaching 0.5% is higher than 0.2% [3][8]. - The December data will provide clearer insights into the transmission of tariffs to consumer prices, which had been absent in the October and November data [3][10]. Group 2: Statistical Distortions - Two main statistical biases due to the government shutdown are expected to affect the December CPI data: - The dual-month sampling bias, which has led to an underestimation of inflation in October, is projected to contribute approximately 8 basis points to the December core CPI [4]. - The holiday discount bias, resulting from delayed price collection in November, is expected to add an additional 3 basis points to the core CPI prediction [4]. Group 3: Inflation Trends - Core goods inflation is anticipated to reach a new high for the year, with a projected month-on-month increase of 0.59% in December, driven by rising prices in new and used cars, clothing, and other core goods [5]. - Rent inflation is expected to normalize, with the owner's equivalent rent (OER) projected to grow by 0.27% month-on-month in December [5]. - Overall CPI is expected to rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.37% and a year-on-year increase of 2.7% [5]. Group 4: Key Focus Areas - The uncertainty surrounding the magnitude of the rebound is acknowledged, with the potential for actual data to exceed the forecasted growth [8]. - The sustainability of the slowdown in housing inflation will be assessed with December serving as a clean observation point following significant declines in September [9]. - The timing of tariff transmission effects is crucial, as December data will be a key verification window for the impact of tariffs on core inflation, which is expected to contribute an additional 45 basis points [10]. Group 5: Market Reactions - Strong data may be dismissed by the market as statistical noise, while weak data could signal a significant cooling of inflation [11]. - The asymmetry in market reactions suggests that if December CPI falls below expectations, it could significantly boost interest rate-sensitive assets, whereas data that meets or slightly exceeds expectations may not provoke strong market responses [11][14].

Group 1: Investment Banking Fees - In 2025, the total investment banking fees in mainland China are expected to reach $15.4 billion, representing a 21% year-on-year growth, marking the second highest value since 2022 [1] - The underwriting fees from the stock market are projected to total $2.95 billion, accounting for 19% of the total investment banking fees, with a significant year-on-year increase of 91% [1] - Bond market underwriting fees are expected to reach $11 billion, reflecting an 11% year-on-year growth, while advisory fees for completed mergers and acquisitions are estimated at $1 billion, up 66% [1] - Syndicated loan fees are projected to decline by 39% year-on-year to $396 million [1] Group 2: Mergers and Acquisitions - The total scale of mergers and acquisitions targeting the Chinese region is projected to reach $474.3 billion in 2025, marking a 62.6% year-on-year increase [2] - Mergers and acquisitions involving Chinese companies are expected to reach $436.1 billion, with a year-on-year growth of 74.7% [2] - Domestic mergers and acquisitions are anticipated to grow by 82.8% year-on-year, reaching $412.1 billion [2] - The financial sector is the most active in terms of mergers and acquisitions, with a transaction scale of $107.3 billion, accounting for 22.6% of the total, and a year-on-year growth of 121% [2] - China International Capital Corporation (CICC) ranks first in announced mergers and acquisitions involving China, with a transaction scale of $89.7 billion and a market share of 18.9% [2] Group 3: Stock Market and Bond Issuance - In 2025, the stock market financing amount for Chinese enterprises is expected to reach $124.3 billion, reflecting a 104% year-on-year increase, rebounding from the lowest level since 2012 [2] - The number of stock market issuances is projected to grow by 34.8% year-on-year [2] - The issuance of primary bonds in the Chinese region is expected to reach $4.1 trillion, a historical high, with a 13.5% increase compared to 2024, and the number of bond issuances is also expected to rise by 14.2% [2]

（本文作者梁永慧为招金精炼副总经理） 一、近期重点事件解析 美联储票委、明尼阿波利斯联储主席卡什卡利表示，当前政策立场已接近中性，美联储需依据更多经济 数据判断通胀问题与劳动力市场状况的优先关注顺序，再根据实际情况灵活调整政策方向。美联储理事 米兰则认为，2026年需累计降息超过100个基点。 市场对美联储货币宽松的预期，仍对贵金属价格形成支撑。 3.全球黄金投资规模持续扩大 世界黄金协会报告显示，2025年全球黄金ETF（交易所交易基金）资金流入量创下年度历史新高，其中 北美市场表现领跑。2025年，黄金ETF资产管理总规模实现翻倍以上增长，持仓量同步大幅攀升，两项 指标均刷新历史纪录。黄金市场日均交易额达3610亿美元，同样创下历史新高。 此外，1月7日中国人民银行公布的数据显示，截至2025年12月末，中国黄金储备为7415万盎司（约合 2306.323吨），较上月增加3万盎司（约合0.93吨），实现连续第14个月增持黄金。 1.地缘风险频发支撑金价反弹 2026新年伊始，地缘冲突引发国际社会广泛关注。1月3日，美军突然对委内瑞拉发起军事打击，轰炸其 境内军用机场、国防部、港口等目标，并抓捕委内瑞拉总统 ...