Group 1 - Health 160 International Limited successfully listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, raising approximately HKD 400 million by issuing 33.6455 million new shares [1][3] - The IPO was highly successful, with the public offering portion being oversubscribed by 751.77 times, and the final offer price set at HKD 11.89 per share [3] - On its first trading day, Health 160 opened at HKD 29.98, representing a 152.14% increase from the offer price, resulting in a potential profit of HKD 4,522.50 for a single board lot of 250 shares [3] Group 2 - Health 160 operates as a wholesale distributor of pharmaceutical health products and a leading provider of digital healthcare services, offering a comprehensive online health service platform [4] - The company employs a hybrid model of wholesale and retail to supply various health products to both corporate clients and individual users, while also providing digital healthcare solutions [4] Group 3 - Eddid Financial, the underwriter for Health 160's IPO, has extensive experience in assisting companies from various regions, including Singapore, Hong Kong, and mainland China, in their listing processes [3][5] - Eddid Financial is a comprehensive financial group based in Hong Kong, focusing on integrating fintech into its services, covering areas such as investment banking, asset management, and digital assets [5]

在9月17日FOMC会议前，多家国际投行更新了对美联储政策的预测： 1.瑞银：预计美联储将自9月起连 续四次降息，总幅度100个基点，理由是通胀接近目标且劳动力市场风险加大。 2.高盛：预计今年9月、 10月、12月连续三次降息25个基点，2025年再降两次，将利率降至3%–3.25%；若劳动力市场恶化加 速，下次会议不排除降息50个基点。高盛强调，就业市场疲软已成为政策重心，通胀不再是阻碍降息的 主因。 3.摩根士丹利：预计今年余下的三次会议均将降息25个基点，较此前预测增加了10月一次降息。 4.巴克莱：预计9月、10月、12月均降息25个基点，并在2026和2027年各再降一次。 5.摩根大通：认 为"鸽派降息25个基点"概率最高（47.5%），标普500或立即上涨1%；若伴随鹰派言论，美股或持平/小 跌；维持不变概率仅4%，或致标普500跌至6450点；50基点降息概率7.5%，市场或双向波动。摩根大通 资管策略师David Kelly警告，当前市场泡沫化，宽松或适得其反。 6. 德意志银行：首席经济学家卢泽 蒂称，美联储将分三次降息，每次25个基点；在本次FOMC会议上，可能会发生自1988年以来首 ...

Group 1 - The current market environment suggests that a 60% equity, 20% fixed income, and 20% gold investment strategy is more effective in hedging against inflation risks, as the historical yield advantage of U.S. stocks over government bonds is at a low point [1][3] - The traditional 60/40 investment portfolio is being challenged, with gold now seen as a more valuable asset for resilience compared to U.S. Treasuries, while high-quality stocks can maintain profit growth in inflationary conditions [3] - Historical data indicates that September is typically a weak month for U.S. stocks, yet in 2023, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq indices have repeatedly reached new highs [3] Group 2 - The return of alpha returns indicates a shift from a broad market movement to structural opportunities, allowing investors to achieve above-average returns through precise industry selection and stock picking, with gold providing foundational risk hedging [4] - Spot gold prices have surpassed $3,700 per ounce, setting a new historical record, driven by potential interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which would lower the opportunity cost of holding gold and weaken the dollar [3]

Core Insights - The report by Goldman Sachs predicts a potential price increase in the real estate market of six major urban clusters in China by 2027, driven by economic restructuring, population migration, and urbanization [2][3][19] - The report highlights a significant regional differentiation in the real estate market, with the six urban clusters expected to outperform the national average in price recovery [3][13] Regional Analysis - **Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei**: The region is expected to benefit from strong policy support and a reversal in population outflow, with a projected net growth rate of 0.3% starting in Q1 2025. The number of high-tech enterprises surged by 17.3% in 2024 [3][4][5] - **Yangtze River Delta**: This area, with a GDP share of 24.7% of the national total, is predicted to see a cumulative price increase of 12.6% by 2027, bolstered by a 21.5% rise in patent applications in 2024 [5][6] - **Pearl River Delta**: The region is benefiting from the rapid development of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area, with a projected price increase of 13.7% by 2027, supported by a 9.2% year-on-year growth in foreign investment [6][7] - **Chengdu-Chongqing**: This western economic hub is expected to see an 11.5% price increase by 2027, driven by a GDP growth rate of 7.3% in Q1 2025, which is above the national average [7][8] - **Central Plains**: The region is projected to experience an 8.2% price increase by 2027, supported by a 16.8% growth in infrastructure investment and a 13.5% increase in high-tech industry value added in 2024 [8][9] - **Yangtze River Middle Reaches**: This area is expected to see a 9.3% price increase by 2027, with a reported 8.7% growth in industrial output value in 2025 [9][10] Driving Forces - The anticipated price increases in these urban clusters are underpinned by strong industrial upgrades and population influx, with high-tech enterprises accounting for 68.3% of the national total and an average R&D investment intensity of 3.2% [10][11] - The net population growth rate in these urban clusters averages 0.8%, significantly higher than other regions, indicating a strong attraction for young labor due to quality public resources [10][11] Policy and Financial Support - The Chinese government is actively promoting a new real estate development model focused on housing for living rather than speculation, with measures such as reduced down payment ratios and adjustments to mortgage rates [11][14] - The real estate-related loan balance reached 53.7 trillion yuan in 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 5.3%, indicating a supportive financial environment for market recovery [14][15] Conclusion - Overall, the report reflects a significant transformation in China's real estate market, emphasizing quality and efficiency over rapid growth. The six urban clusters are expected to lead the recovery, with a focus on sustainable development and the return to housing's fundamental purpose [16][17][19]

▲中金公司首席经济学家、研究部负责人、中金研究院院长彭文生 在下午的分会场，研讨会邀请了来自芝加哥大学、复旦大学、国家金融与发展实验室、香港大学、国际能源转型学会、麻省理工学院、荷兰瓦赫宁根大 学、尤索夫伊萨东南亚研究院、中国社会科学院、南京大学、哈萨克斯坦管理经济战略研究院、北京大学、耶鲁大学与来自OSL集团、VDX、标普、张 ▲中金公司董事长、管理委员会主席陈亮 本次研讨会邀请到近30名国内外知名学者与企业代表，围绕地缘经济新格局与新趋势背景下的数字金融、能源转型、战略产业与科技发展等核心议题展开 深入讨论，深度解析地缘经济重构下的风险与机遇，助力构建更具韧性的全球金融与产业新秩序，共吸引来自政府相关部门、产业界、学术界、投资界等 近380名嘉宾现场参会。 9月16日，中金公司2025地缘经济主题研讨会在北京成功举办。会议以"地缘经济新变局"为主题，设全体大会和四场主题分会，中金公司董事长、管理委 员会主席陈亮致开幕辞。 在上午的全体大会中，中国人民银行原行长周小川，美国哥伦比亚大学教授兼可持续发展中心主任Jeffrey D. Sachs，香港中文大学（深圳）公共政策学院 院长、前海国际事务研究院院长郑永 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the establishment of a digital research platform by CICC, aimed at providing efficient, professional, and accurate research services by integrating insights from over 30 specialized teams and covering more than 1800 individual stocks [1]. Group 1: Research Services - CICC's digital research platform, "CICC Insight," offers a one-stop service that includes research reports, conference activities, fundamental databases, and research frameworks [1]. - The platform is designed to deliver daily updates on research focuses and timely articles through the "CICC Morning Report" [4]. - It features live broadcasts where senior analysts interpret market hotspots, enhancing the accessibility of expert insights [4]. Group 2: Data and Frameworks - The platform includes over 160 industry research frameworks and 40 premium databases, providing comprehensive industry data [10]. - It also offers a "CICC Insight Big Model" that utilizes AI technology for intelligent search and question-answering capabilities, facilitating user inquiries [10]. Group 3: User Engagement - Users can unlock upgraded features by verifying their email, enhancing their experience on the platform [8]. - The platform aims to create an open and shared knowledge base in the financial industry, promoting collaboration and information exchange [1].

市场分析认为，美国就业数据加快走弱，支持美联储9月重启降息，降息预期是近期金价上涨的关键动力 。 高盛集团在9月4日表示，如果 美联储公信力受损，而投资者将一小部分美债持仓转换为黄金，金价可能会飙升至每盎司近5000美元。 美联储本年度 9 月利率决策会议在当地时间 9 月 16 日到 17 日举办。 北京时间 9 月 18 日凌晨 2 点，美联储 FOMC 将公布利率决议结 果和经济预期。凌晨 2 点 30 分鲍威尔将召开新闻发布会。 CME"美联储观察工具"数据显示，市场预计美联储有95.8%的概率将在9月17日的议息会议上降息25个基点，有4.2%的概率降息50个基 点，维持现状的概率为0%。市场押注美国降息已成定局。 值得一提的是，当地时间 9 月 15 日，美联储议息名单发生两大变动：其一，特朗普提名的米兰获参议院批准出任美联储理事，将在本次会 议中拥有 12 张表决票中的一票；其二，美国一上诉法院驳回特朗普解雇库克的请求，若最高法院未裁决，库克将参与此次议息会议并投 票。 参考资料： 美东时间周二，美股三大指数集体收跌，截至收盘，道琼斯指数跌0.27%，标普500指数跌0.13%，纳斯达克综合指数 ...

9月16日，现货黄金短线拉升，升破3700美元/盎司，日内上涨0.56%，再创历史新高，全年累计大涨 1076美元/盎司。市场分析认为，美国就业数据加快走弱，支持美联储9月重启降息，降息预期是近期金 价上涨的关键动力。高盛集团在9月4日表示，如果美联储公信力受损，而投资者将一小部分美债持仓转 换为黄金，金价可能会飙升至每盎司近5,000美元。 ...

Piper Sandler的Michael Kantrowitz说，"我们以前见过股市和失业率一同上涨。"他指出了1950年代、 1960年代和1990年代初的过往周期，当时疲软的就业数据拉低了利率，并助推了股市的反弹。 高盛策略师David Kostin直言不讳地表示："在所有其他条件相同的情况下，降温的劳动力市场是企业利 润的顺风，因为工资——大多数公司资产负债表上最大的项目——正在减速。" 标普500指数在招聘降温、失业率上升的情况下，却不断创下历史新高，摩根大通将此称为"失业式扩张 的奇特案例"。 这背后的押注逻辑很简单：疲软的就业数据促使美联储降息，更低的利率提升了估值，而放缓的工资增 长则增加了企业利润率。 这听起来可能违反直觉，失业率上升和股市上涨通常不会同时发生，但这并非没有先例。 对年轻的美国人来说，情况看起来甚至更惨淡。8月份，16至24岁工人的失业率跃升至10.5%，这是自 疫情以来的首次两位数读数，而应届大学毕业生的失业率现在也比整体劳动力更高，这与疫情前的常态 形成了鲜明对比。 问题就在于此。股市上涨是因为投资者预期美联储会降息，而不是因为经济基础稳固。在某个时刻，这 种逻辑会开始显 ...

Group 1 - The next pain point for bond traders may emerge in the five-year segment of the yield curve, particularly in Japan and Germany, as both countries are experiencing shifts in their economic policies and outlooks [1][3] - Short-term bonds are heavily influenced by monetary policy expectations, while bonds with maturities of 10 years or more are more sensitive to inflation and deficit concerns, making five-year bonds a "sweet spot" in the global bond market [3] - The yield on German five-year government bonds has dropped over 30 basis points from its peak in March, while the 10-year yield has decreased by about 25 basis points [3] Group 2 - Despite ongoing selling pressure in Germany and Japan, it is expected that bearish pressure will shift from the long end of the yield curve to the mid-section, leading to underperformance of five-year bonds in these countries compared to other maturities [3] - The recent issuance of five-year Japanese government bonds saw the strongest demand since June, indicating a potential shift in investor sentiment [3]