Core Insights - Long-term funds, particularly insurance capital-backed private equity, are increasingly investing in leading companies in the energy and infrastructure sectors, such as China Petroleum, China Shenhua, and Daqin Railway, indicating a clear strategy of long-term and value investment [1][3] Group 1: Investment Trends - As of now, there are 7 insurance capital-backed private equity firms with a total pilot amount of 222 billion yuan [1][9] - The recent registration of Hengyi Holding (Shenzhen) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. under Ping An Asset Management marks the emergence of another insurance capital-backed private equity firm, with an initial fund size of 30 billion yuan [1][7] Group 2: Fund Holdings - The Guofeng Xinghua Honghu Zhiyuan Phase II private equity fund has become the 6th largest circulating shareholder of China Petroleum, holding over 217 million shares valued at approximately 1.857 billion yuan as of the end of Q2 [3] - The same fund is also the 9th largest circulating shareholder of China Shenhua, with over 52 million shares valued at around 2.116 billion yuan [3] - The Honghu Zhiyuan Phase III Fund No. 1 is the 8th largest shareholder of Sinopec, holding 305 million shares valued at over 1.7 billion yuan [3] - The same fund has also become the 4th largest shareholder of Daqin Railway, holding 298 million shares valued at over 1.9 billion yuan [3] Group 3: Fund Management and Strategy - The insurance capital long-term investment reform pilot has been approved in three batches, with a total pilot amount of 222 billion yuan [9] - The newly registered Hengyi Holding will focus on long-term and value investment strategies, targeting high-quality listed companies that align with policy directions and insurance capital allocation needs [7][8]

Group 1 - Long-term investment strategies of insurance capital are becoming clearer as semi-annual reports of listed companies are disclosed, with significant investments in leading companies in the energy and infrastructure sectors such as China Petroleum, China Shenhua, and Daqin Railway [1][2] - As of now, there are 7 insurance capital private equity firms with a total pilot amount of 222 billion yuan, indicating a growing trend in long-term and value investment approaches [1][6] - The recent registration of Hengyi Holding (Shenzhen) Private Fund Management Co., Ltd. under Ping An Asset Management, with an initial fund size of 30 billion yuan, marks the emergence of another insurance capital private equity firm [1][4] Group 2 - The National Fund for Investment Management has reported that the Guofeng Xinghua Honghu Zhi Yuan Phase II private equity fund has become the sixth largest shareholder of China Petroleum, holding over 217 million shares valued at approximately 1.857 billion yuan [2] - The same fund has also become the ninth largest shareholder of China Shenhua, with over 52 million shares valued at around 2.116 billion yuan [2] - The Guofeng Xinghua Honghu Zhi Yuan Phase III private equity fund has been reported as the eighth largest shareholder of Sinopec, holding 305 million shares valued at over 1.7 billion yuan, and the fourth largest shareholder of Daqin Railway, holding 298 million shares valued at over 1.9 billion yuan [2] Group 3 - The holdings of the Taikang Stable Phase I fund and the Taibao Zhiyuan No. 1 fund have not yet been disclosed as of the end of the second quarter [3] - The pilot program for long-term investment of insurance funds has seen three batches approved, with a total pilot amount of 222 billion yuan [6]

Report Information - Report Type: Steel Daily Review [1] - Date: September 3, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Black Metal Research Team [3] - Researchers: Zhai Hepan, Nie Jiayi, Feng Zeren [3] 1. Market Review and Future Outlook 1.1 Spot Market Dynamics and Technical Analysis - On September 2, some rebar and hot-rolled coil spot markets saw price drops. Rebar prices in Changsha dropped by 30 yuan/ton, and in other cities by 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Hot-rolled coil prices in some cities dropped by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, while in Shenyang, it rose by 10 yuan/ton [8]. - The daily KDJ indicators of rebar 2601 contract showed a split trend, with the J value rebounding, the K value nearly flat, and the D value continuing to decline. The daily KDJ indicators of hot-rolled coil 2601 contract continued to decline after a dead cross the previous day. The daily MACD green bars of both contracts have been expanding [8]. 1.2 Future Outlook - News: Recently, some northern steel mills started the first round of coke purchase price cuts, and iron ore spot prices also showed a weakening trend [9]. - Fundamentals: The production and demand of the five major steel products continued to rise slightly, while the steel mill inventory continued to decline slightly, but the social inventory reached a new high since early May. The blast furnace capacity utilization rate and daily hot metal output decreased slightly but remained at a high level. Since early August, steel mill profits have generally declined by 140 - 200 yuan/ton, which has a suppressing effect on raw material prices. Steel mill iron ore inventories have declined for two consecutive weeks, and the purchasing sentiment has turned flat. After the eighth round of coke spot price increase, there are rumors that Hebei steel mills plan to conduct the first round of coke price cuts on September 5. Mongolia will increase coal exports to China, causing coke and coking coal futures to turn weak again [10]. - Overall: Recently, the production restrictions in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Shandong, and Henan were not as effective as previously shown in the market. Constrained by the under - expected demand in the steel spot market and the significant narrowing of steel mill profits, the steel market in the early part of September will face pressure from weak demand and the loss of cost support. However, this situation is unlikely to continue after mid - September. There is hope for a long - term slow - bull market in the steel market from mid - September to November, similar to the domestic stock index slow - bull trend from April to August [11]. 2. Industry News - The Shanghai Cooperation Organization member states issued a statement on energy sustainable development on September 1, calling for deeper cooperation in the energy field [12]. - On September 2, the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the logistics industry prosperity index for August, which expanded significantly. The business volume index and new order index continued to expand [12]. - Tianfeng Securities gave a "Buy" rating to China Shenhua, citing its integrated operation model, stable coal and power businesses, and high - return profit distribution plan [12]. - Five major traditional power generation companies achieved a total net profit of 24.267 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, a new high since 2016 [13]. - According to CITIC Securities, the total net profit of sample coal companies decreased by about 32% year - on - year and 15% quarter - on - quarter in the first half of the year. However, the industry's supply - demand pattern may improve in the second half, and the coal price center may rise [13]. - The 62 - day railway summer transportation ended on August 31, with passenger and freight volumes reaching record highs [13]. - In July 2025, the total import and export volume of automobile products was 24.98 billion US dollars, with exports showing significant growth [13]. - Fenix Resources signed a mining rights agreement with Sinosteel Midwest Corporation [13]. - India's power generation increased by 4% in August, and the proportion of coal - fired power generation rose [13]. - Russia's Yakutia region plans to increase coal production to over 50 million tons in 2025 [13]. - In July 2025, global pig iron production decreased by 0.2% month - on - month and 4.4% year - on - year [13]. - The EU is taking measures to ensure that Russian gas will not be mixed into its supply system after the 2027 ban [14]. 3. Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts including spot prices, social inventories, production, and capacity utilization rates of steel products, with data sources from Mysteel and the research and development department of Jianxin Futures [16][18][25]

Core Viewpoint - Goldman Sachs reported that China Shenhua's net profit for the first half of the year was 26.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decline of 15%, primarily due to a drop in coal business profits, although it was generally in line with market expectations [1] Financial Performance - The recurring net profit, excluding one-off items, was 26.68 billion yuan, also down 15% year-on-year, which was below Goldman Sachs' expectations [1] - The company declared an interim dividend of 0.98 yuan per share, with a payout ratio of 73%, compared to 72% for the entire previous year [1] Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs has lowered its earnings forecast for Shenhua for 2025 by 10% [1] - The expectation of stable cash flow generation and a strengthening balance sheet will support Shenhua's 70% dividend payout ratio, indicating a yield of 4.9%-5.6% for A/H shares [1] Ratings and Price Targets - Goldman Sachs maintains a "Neutral" rating for Shenhua [1] - The target price for H shares has been raised from 29 HKD to 32 HKD, while the target price for A shares has been increased from 31 CNY to 34 CNY [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - For the steel industry, prices have fallen from their highs, and profit margins have declined significantly. In the future, attention should be paid to coal mine复产 after the September 3rd parade and the demand for steel during the peak season. There are expectations of seasonal strengthening in demand from September to October, but high production levels will still test the ability to absorb demand during the peak season. Unilateral short - selling space is limited, and strategies such as selling out - of - the - money put options and going long on the ratio of steel to ore can be considered [1]. - For the iron ore industry, the global shipment volume has increased significantly, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has risen. The demand side is affected by production restrictions during the parade, and iron water production has declined from its high. The fundamentals lack a strong upward driving force, but steel mills' profitability remains high, so iron water production in September will still be at a relatively high level. The demand during the "Golden September and Silver October" period is uncertain. A neutral view is taken on unilateral trading, with an expected trading range of 750 - 810, and an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal is recommended [3]. - For the coke industry, futures prices have fluctuated sharply, with spot prices rising and then stabilizing. Supply has been affected by production restrictions, and demand has declined due to steel production restrictions. Inventory is at a medium level, and there is a possibility of price decline in the future. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [5]. - For the coking coal industry, futures prices have trended weakly, and spot prices have been generally weak and stable. Supply has been affected by mine accidents and production suspension for rectification, and demand has declined due to production restrictions in the steel and coking industries. Inventory has decreased slightly, and coal prices may continue to fall in September. It is recommended to hold existing short positions and consider an arbitrage strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [5]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel Industry Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of most steel products have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the spot price of rebar in East China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 10 - contract price increased by 8 yuan/ton. The spot price of hot - rolled coils in North China decreased by 10 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost of steel production has generally decreased, such as the cost of electric - arc furnace rebar in Jiangsu decreasing by 36 yuan/ton. However, the profit margins of steel products have declined significantly, with the profit of hot - rolled coils in East China decreasing by 33 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average pig iron production decreased by 0.7 to 240.1, a decline of 0.3%. The production of five major steel products increased by 6.5 to 884.6, an increase of 0.7%. The inventory of five major steel products increased by 26.8 to 1467.9, an increase of 1.9% [1]. Iron Ore Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of iron ore spot and futures have shown minor fluctuations. For example, the price of PB powder at Rizhao Port increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract basis of PB powder increased by 32.2 yuan/ton, a significant increase of 351.5% [3]. Supply and Demand - The global shipment volume of iron ore increased by 241.0 to 3556.8 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 7.3%. The arrival volume at 45 ports increased by 132.7 to 2526.0 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 5.5%. The demand side was affected by production restrictions, with the daily average iron water production of 247 steel mills decreasing by 0.6 to 240.1, a decline of 0.2% [3]. Inventory - The inventory at 45 ports increased by 13.5 to 13776.51 (in ten thousand tons), an increase of 0.1%, and the imported ore inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 58.3 to 9007.2 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.6% [3]. Coke and Coking Coal Industry Prices and Spreads - The prices of coke and coking coal futures have fluctuated. For example, the 01 - contract price of coke increased by 2 yuan/ton, and the 01 - contract price of coking coal decreased by 6 yuan/ton. The profit margins of the coking and coal - mining industries have declined [5]. Supply and Demand - The production of coke and coking coal has been affected by production restrictions. The daily average production of coke in all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.9 to 64.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 1.4%. The demand for coke and coking coal has also decreased due to steel production restrictions [5]. Inventory - The inventory of coke and coking coal has shown different trends. The total coke inventory decreased slightly by 1.1 to 887.5 (in ten thousand tons), a decline of 0.1%. The coking coal inventory in some areas has decreased, while in others, it has increased slightly [5].

依据《中华人民共和国安全生产法》第九十九条第二项，沁源县应急管理局对其作出并处叁万元人民币（¥30,000.00）罚款的行政处罚。 | 主体基本信息 | 修复 | | --- | --- | | 行政相对人名称: | 山西汾西太岳煤业股份有限公司太岳煤矿 | | 法定代表人名称: | 武二牛 | | 统一社会信用代码: | 91140000MA0GR39F7N | | 风险提示: | 本网站仅基于已美握的信息提供查询服务，查询结果不代表本网站对被查询对象信用状况的评价，仅供参考，请注意识别和防范信用风险。 | | 公示相关信息 | | | 行政处罚决定文书号: (沁)应急罚(2025)第23号 | | | 处罚类别: | 罚款 | | 违法事实: | 1、二部架空人车中间段未安装延时启动声光预警信号:2、五采区轨道下山控制局扇Ⅱ回路的馈电开关辅助接地线采用1.5*4电缆线, | | | 截面积不足10平方毫米 | | 处罚依据: | 《中华人民共和国安全生产法》 第九十九条第二项 | | 处罚内容: | 作出并处参万元人民币（¥30,000.00）罚款的行政处罚 | | 处罚决定日期: | 2025/08/1 ...

Group 1 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index (000824) decreased by 0.65% as of September 3, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks [1] - Huayu Automotive (600741) led the gains with an increase of 3.07%, while Phoenix Media (601928) experienced the largest decline [1] - The latest price for the State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF (159515) was adjusted to 1.14 yuan [1] Group 2 - The State-Owned Enterprises Dividend ETF reached a new high in scale at 51.3344 million yuan, marking a significant increase in shares by 3.9 million over the past two weeks [2] - Open Source Securities emphasized the importance of high dividend strategies in the current uncertain environment, recommending stable dividend stocks like banks and public utilities over cyclical ones [2] - The strategy team at Shenwan Hongyuan projected that insurance companies will likely continue to be a key channel for residents' asset investments, estimating an incremental fund of 66.876 billion yuan for the dividend sector by 2025 [2] Group 3 - The China Securities State-Owned Enterprises Dividend Index tracks 100 listed companies with high cash dividend yields and stable dividends, reflecting the overall performance of high dividend securities among state-owned enterprises [3] - As of August 29, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the index accounted for 16.84% of the total index weight, with China Merchants Industry Holdings (601919) being the largest [3]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro finance: The stock index is recommended to be moderately long at low levels in the medium and long term, and government bonds are recommended to be on the sidelines [1][5] - Black building materials: Coking coal and rebar are recommended for range trading, and glass is recommended to be long at low levels [1][7][9] - Non - ferrous metals: Copper is recommended to be moderately long at low levels, aluminum is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback, nickel is recommended to be on the sidelines or short at high levels, tin is recommended for range trading, and gold and silver are recommended for range trading [1][10][11][16][18] - Energy and chemicals: PVC and styrene are expected to be weakly volatile, caustic soda and rubber are expected to be strongly volatile, soda ash is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage, urea and methanol are expected to be volatile, and polyolefins are expected to be widely volatile [1][20][21][24][26][27][28][32] - Cotton textile industry chain: Cotton, cotton yarn, PTA, and jujube are expected to be volatile, and apples are expected to be strongly volatile [1][33][34][35][36] - Agricultural and livestock products: Pigs and eggs are recommended to be short at high levels, corn is expected to be widely volatile, soybean meal is expected to have limited upside, and oils are expected to be adjusted at high levels [1][37][39][40][43][46] Core Views - The A - share market has short - term fluctuations but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long during corrections. The bond market lacks short - term positive drivers and is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] - The coal market price is in a stalemate, and the rebar price is expected to fall first and then rise in September. The glass market may have a phased recovery in demand and is recommended to be long at low levels [7][9] - The copper price is expected to be strong in the later stage due to the shift from the off - season to the peak season. The aluminum market is recommended to be long at low levels considering the peak season demand. The nickel market is expected to be weakly volatile in the medium and long term, and the tin market is recommended for range trading [10][11][16] - The PVC market is expected to be weakly volatile due to high inventory and uncertain export sustainability. The caustic soda market is expected to have low - long opportunities during the peak season. The styrene market is expected to be weakly volatile, and the rubber market is expected to be strongly volatile [20][23][24][26] - The urea price is expected to be weak first and then strong in the short term. The methanol market has a supply - demand balance with increased demand from methanol - to - olefins. The polyolefin market is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [27][28][30] - The cotton price is expected to be strong in the short term but may face downward pressure in the future. The PTA market is expected to be volatile and is currently in a de - stocking stage. The apple market is expected to be strongly volatile, and the jujube market is expected to be stable [33][34][35][36] - The pig market has limited upside due to large supply, and the egg market is recommended to be short at high levels. The corn market is expected to be range - bound, the soybean meal price has limited upside, and the oil market is expected to be adjusted at high levels [37][39][40][41][43][46] Summary by Category Macro Finance - Stock Index: On Tuesday, the A - share market was volatile and adjusted. There is a possibility of a technical correction in the short term, but the medium - term repair trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to go long during corrections [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued to be volatile on Tuesday. In the short term, there is a lack of positive drivers, and the downward space for interest rates is limited. It is recommended to be on the sidelines [5] Black Building Materials - Coking Coal: The coal market price is in a stalemate. The downstream demand is weak, and the number of coal mines on training leave has increased, intensifying market caution [7] - Rebar: On Tuesday, the rebar futures price was narrowly volatile. The fundamentals show an increase in demand, production, and inventory. The static valuation is neutral to low. It is expected that the price will fall first and then rise in September, and range trading is recommended [7] - Glass: The supply is stable, and the inventory has decreased slightly in some regions. The demand has improved at the end of the month. Considering the peak season and macro - sentiment, it is recommended to be long at low levels [9] Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper price is mainly affected by macro factors and is in a high - level range. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and it is recommended to be moderately long at low levels [10] - Aluminum: The supply of bauxite is affected by the rainy season in Guinea. The production capacity of electrolytic aluminum is increasing steadily, and the demand is warming up in the peak season. It is recommended to be long at low levels [11] - Nickel: The nickel market is in a state of over - supply in the medium and long term, and the price is expected to be weakly volatile [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand from the semiconductor industry is expected to recover. It is recommended for range trading [16] - Gold and Silver: The market's expectation of a Fed rate cut in September is rising, and the prices of precious metals are expected to have support below. It is recommended to be long at low levels after a pullback [18] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The export support is uncertain, and it is expected to be weakly volatile [20] - Caustic Soda: Affected by rumors and warehouse receipts, the price has fallen. The demand is expected to increase in the peak season, and there are low - long opportunities [23] - Styrene: The cost is under pressure, the supply is abundant, and the demand is limited. It is expected to be weakly volatile [24] - Rubber: The cost is rising, the inventory is decreasing, and it is expected to be strongly volatile [26] - Urea: The supply is increasing, the demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. The price is expected to be weak first and then strong [27] - Methanol: The supply is increasing, the demand from methanol - to - olefins is expected to increase, and the market is expected to be volatile [28] - Polyolefins: The traditional peak season is coming, the demand is expected to be boosted, and the supply pressure is relieved for polyethylene. It is expected to have support at the bottom, and the L - PP spread is expected to widen [30] - Soda Ash: The spot market is sluggish, the supply is expected to increase, and the downstream demand is improving. It is recommended for shorting 01 and going long 05 arbitrage [32] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand are improving, but the new cotton output is expected to increase, and the price may face downward pressure. Hedging is recommended [33] - PTA: The device is under maintenance, the supply is decreasing, and the demand is stable. It is in a de - stocking stage and is expected to be volatile [34] - Apple: The price of early - maturing apples is polarized, and the inventory apple market is stable. The price is expected to be strongly volatile [35] - Jujube: The Xinjiang jujube is in the sugar - increasing stage, and the price is expected to be stable [36] Agricultural and Livestock Products - Pigs: The short - term price has a limited upside due to large supply, and the medium - and long - term price is under pressure. It is recommended to short at high levels and consider arbitrage [37][39] - Eggs: The short - term price may rebound slightly, but the supply is sufficient. It is recommended to be short at high levels for near - term contracts and wait and see for far - term contracts [39][40] - Corn: The supply is sufficient during the transition period between old and new crops, and the cost support is weakening. It is recommended for range trading and arbitrage [41][42] - Soybean Meal: The domestic supply is abundant from September to October, and the price is under pressure, but there is cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support level [44][45] - Oils: The short - term price is under pressure from multiple negative factors, but there is also support. It is recommended to wait and see during the correction and then go long [46][52]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - On September 2, the A-share market and multiple futures varieties showed diverse trends, influenced by factors such as market supply - demand, policy restrictions, and international market conditions [1][2][3][4][5][7][8][9][11][12] Summary by Variety Stock Index Futures - On September 2, the three major A - share indexes collectively declined. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.45% to 3858.13 points, the Shenzhen Component Index dropped 2.14% to 12553.84 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased 2.85% to 2872.22 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2875 billion yuan, an increase of 125 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 index also adjusted downward, closing at 4490.45, a decrease of 33.26 [1][2] Coke and Coking Coal - Coke: On September 2, the weighted coke index showed weak consolidation, closing at 1599.6, a decrease of 6.9. There is a temporary supply contraction due to upcoming northern regional restrictions, while steel mills also face restrictions, and cost support is weakening [2][4] - Coking Coal: On September 2, the weighted coking coal index fluctuated weakly, closing at 1110.9 yuan, a decrease of 9.2. Some mines in major coal - producing areas have suspended production, and downstream enterprises will face restrictions, resulting in weak supply and demand [3][4] Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by the reduction in spot prices and short - selling pressure, the Zhengzhou Sugar 2601 contract declined on September 2 and continued to fall slightly at night. India will allow unrestricted use of sugarcane juice, syrup, and molasses for ethanol production in the new season [4] Rubber - Shanghai rubber showed a narrow - range fluctuation on September 2 and closed slightly higher. Boosted by rising crude oil prices, it rose slightly at night. As of August 31, 2025, the total inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao decreased by 0.4 million tons, a decline of 0.6% [5] Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 2, CBOT soybean futures were weak. The US soybean harvest will start in mid - to - late September, and Brazil's 2025/2026 soybean production is expected to reach a record 1.782 billion tons, a 5.6% increase year - on - year. Domestically, on September 2, soybean meal futures fluctuated. The M2601 contract closed at 3050 yuan/ton, a 0.13% decrease. High imports and high processing volumes have led to sufficient supply, and the price is under pressure [5] Live Hogs - On September 2, live hog futures fluctuated weakly. The LH2511 contract closed at 13595 yuan/ton, a 0.22% decrease. In September, supply is sufficient, and some areas face disease risks. Although there is a recovery in terminal demand due to the start of the school season, the support for prices is limited. In the medium - to - long - term, the supply pressure in the fourth quarter is high [7] Palm Oil - On September 2, palm oil futures continued a slight rebound but lacked upward momentum. The main contract P2601 closed at 9422, a 0.4% increase. Malaysia's August palm oil exports increased by 30.53% year - on - year, while production decreased by 2.65% [8] Shanghai Copper - Positive macro factors and supply - tightening expectations will support copper prices. With low inventory and high premiums in China, and the approaching peak consumption season, demand is expected to increase. However, high prices may suppress some purchasing intentions [8] Cotton - On the night of September 2, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 14045 yuan/ton. The base - price quotation at Xinjiang's designated delivery warehouses was at least 900 yuan/ton, and the inventory decreased by 189 lots [9] Iron Ore - On September 2, the main contract of iron ore 2601 fluctuated and closed up 0.06%. Global shipments have reached a high for the year, and arrivals have increased. Short - term prices are in a fluctuating trend due to production cuts in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region [9] Asphalt - On September 2, the main contract of asphalt 2510 fluctuated and rose 1.17%, closing at 3551 yuan. The capacity utilization rate has decreased, inventory reduction is slow, and with the approaching peak demand season, prices are expected to fluctuate [9] Logs - On September 2, the log futures contract 2511 opened at 820, closed at 810.5, and increased in positions by 755 lots. The price broke below the 60 - day moving average. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained stable. There is a game between strong expectations and weak reality, and attention should be paid to factors such as peak - season prices, imports, and inventory [9][10][11] Steel Products - On September 2, rb2601 closed at 3117 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3298 yuan/ton. The market lacks strong macro - drivers, and the fundamentals are weak, which may continue to suppress prices [11] Alumina - On September 2, ao2601 closed at 3022 yuan/ton. Some domestic enterprises are under maintenance, and production and operating rates have slightly declined, but the supply is still relatively loose, and the market may continue to be weak [11] Shanghai Aluminum - On September 2, al2510 closed at 20720 yuan/ton. Macro sentiment is favorable, but the peak - season expectations have not been realized. The fundamentals are weak, and the price is in a range - bound trend [12]

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall view of coking coal 2601 and coke 2601 is oscillatory, with short - term, medium - term, and intraday views being mostly oscillatory, and intraday views also showing a tendency to be oscillatory and slightly stronger [1]. - Coking coal futures are expected to maintain range - bound trading, and the回调 space may be relatively limited considering the long - term impact of the "anti - involution" policy [5]. - Coke futures' main contract oscillates downward due to weakened cost support, but the回调 space is also expected to be limited due to potential new positive factors on the supply side from the "anti - involution" policy [6]. 3. Summary by Variety Coking Coal (JM) - **Price and Inventory**: The latest quotation of Mongolian coking coal at the Ganqimaodu Port is 1180.0 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The total inventory of coking coal within the statistical scope this week is 2332.07 million tons, a week - on - week increase of 16.26 million tons. Mines and ports are accumulating inventory, while coke enterprises and steel mills are reducing inventory [5]. - **Market Outlook**: With the phased realization of positive factors on the supply side of coking coal and no new driving force for the "anti - involution" policy, coking coal futures are expected to range - bound. The回调 space is relatively limited in the long - term [5]. Coke (J) - **Price**: The latest quotation of the flat - price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port is 1570 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week flat. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port is 1450 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.68% [6]. - **Market Outlook**: As the steel market weakens, downstream operating pressure increases, and some steel mills start the first round of coke price increase, leading to more industry chain games. The cost support of coke weakens, causing the futures main contract to oscillate downward. However, new positive factors on the supply side are expected in the future, and the回调 space is limited [6].