Core Insights - The production of petroleum asphalt in Hubei Province for May 2025 reached 19,000 tons, representing a year-on-year increase of 21.2%, which is 1.0 percentage points higher than the same period last year [1] - For the period of January to May 2025, the total production of petroleum asphalt in Hubei Province was 87,000 tons, showing a year-on-year growth of 7.1%, but this growth rate is 6.2 percentage points lower than the previous year [2] Monthly Production Analysis - In May 2025, Hubei's petroleum asphalt production accounted for 0.6% of the national total production of 3,347,000 tons, with a growth rate that exceeded the national average by 10.8 percentage points [1] - The cumulative production from January to May 2025 also represented 0.6% of the national total production of 14,815,000 tons, with a growth rate slightly above the national average by 0.1 percentage points [2] Industry Context - The statistics pertain to large-scale industrial enterprises, defined as those with annual main business revenues of 20 million yuan or more [3]

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights a decline in China's gasoline production, indicating potential challenges for the ethanol gasoline industry from 2025 to 2031 [1][2]. Industry Summary - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, China's gasoline production in August 2025 was 13.48 million tons, representing a year-on-year decrease of 1.7% [1]. - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, China's gasoline production totaled 102.836 million tons, showing a decline of 5.7% compared to the previous year [1]. Company Summary - Listed companies mentioned include Baoli International (300135), Hengji Daxin (002492), and Sinopec (600028), which may be impacted by the trends in gasoline production [1].

Core Insights - The report by Zhiyan Consulting forecasts the operational pattern and industry outlook of the kerosene market in China from 2025 to 2031 [1] Group 1: Production Data - In August 2025, China's kerosene production reached 5.56 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 10.7% [1] - Cumulatively, from January to August 2025, China's kerosene production totaled 39.315 million tons, reflecting a cumulative growth of 3.4% [1]

Core Insights - Hengli Petrochemical's stock rose by 0.82% on September 30, closing at 17.14 yuan, with a significant block trade of 11.67 million shares valued at 200 million yuan [1] Trading Activity - The first block trade occurred at a price of 17.14 yuan for 11.67 million shares, totaling 199.98 million yuan, with a premium rate of 0.00%. The buyer was Zhongyou Securities Liaoning Branch, and the seller was Huatai Securities Shanghai Branch [1] - Over the past three months, Hengli Petrochemical has recorded a total of 9 block trades, amounting to 1.55 billion yuan [1] - In the last five trading days, the stock has increased by 4.64%, with a net inflow of 101 million yuan from major funds [1]

Core Viewpoint - The event highlighted the achievements and future plans of Keshihua in the specialty asphalt sector, emphasizing its role as a key player in supporting national infrastructure strategies and its commitment to quality and innovation in asphalt products [11][12]. Group 1: Company Achievements - Keshihua has developed into a world-class naphthenic product base with an annual crude oil processing capacity of 6 million tons, and it is recognized as the largest high-grade white oil production base in China [12]. - Keshihua's specialty asphalt products account for over 15% of China National Petroleum Corporation's total asphalt production capacity, with a market share of 70% for high-grade asphalt in the northwest region [12]. - The company has received national transportation product certification for its high-grade asphalt, showcasing its commitment to quality [12]. Group 2: Technological Innovations - Keshihua has made significant technological breakthroughs in heavy oil deep processing, winning the National Science and Technology Progress Award in 2011 for its research and development of high-end products [12]. - The company is transitioning traditional asphalt materials to smart materials, reflecting advancements in technology and product innovation [12]. Group 3: Market Opportunities - The new regulations for asphalt pavement construction will facilitate the large-scale application of hard asphalt, providing a favorable environment for Keshihua's products [15]. - Keshihua has been proactive in developing hard asphalt, which has shown excellent performance in various projects, addressing issues related to high costs and performance of SBS modified asphalt [16][17]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Keshihua plans to expand its production capacity for modified asphalt to 300,000 tons annually, aiming to meet the growing demand for highway construction in the northwest region [18]. - The company is also focusing on high-end green products, such as special and emulsified asphalt, in response to the evolving needs of the industry and national carbon neutrality goals [21][22]. Group 5: Collaboration and Partnerships - Keshihua has a long-standing partnership with Shaanxi Transportation Control Supply Chain Management Group, which has utilized Keshihua's asphalt in major highway projects for 35 years [13]. - The company has received positive feedback from various partners regarding the stability and quality of its asphalt products, reinforcing its reputation in the market [14]. Group 6: Water Conservancy Applications - Keshihua's water engineering asphalt products have gained traction, with significant applications in major hydropower projects, including the Three Gorges Dam and various pumped storage power stations [20]. - The sales of Keshihua's water engineering asphalt have seen a remarkable increase of 95.7% year-on-year from January to August 2025, following the introduction of national energy industry standards [20].

Group 1 - The core issue revolves around the capital maneuvering of Bohui Co., where state-owned capital is acquiring controlling stakes while original shareholders are significantly reducing their holdings, raising market skepticism about the motives behind this dual action [1][2] - Bohui Co. announced a substantial reduction in its private placement fundraising plan from a maximum of 417 million yuan to 235 million yuan, a decrease of 43.5% [1] - The capital operation strategy of Bohui Co. consists of a "three-step" approach, including agreement transfer, private placement fundraising, and voting rights transfer [1] Group 2 - The first phase of the agreement transfer was completed on April 30, 2025, with Yuanxinxiwang Partnership acquiring 13.06% of shares from Wenkui Group for 263 million yuan, translating to a per-share transfer price of approximately 8.20 yuan [1] - The second phase of the private placement has raised questions regarding the pricing, as the placement price is set at 5.66 yuan per share, significantly lower than the market price of around 14 yuan as of September 2025 [1][2] - The price difference between Wenkui Group's share reduction at 8.20 yuan and Yuanxinxiwang's subscription at 5.66 yuan is 2.54 yuan per share, leading to concerns about the fairness of this pricing despite regulatory compliance [2] Group 3 - Bohui Co. primarily engages in fuel oil deep processing, with main products including base oil, fuel oil, and white oil [2] - In the first half of 2025, the company reported operating revenue of 1.342 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 1.73% year-on-year, while net profit remained negative at -59.29 million yuan, indicating ongoing financial struggles [2] - The company has a high debt-to-asset ratio of 80%, which poses a significant financial burden, and it explicitly stated that the fundraising is aimed at optimizing its capital structure and reducing debt levels [2]

Core Points - Daqing Huake's stock price dropped by 5.12% with a trading volume of 418 million yuan and a volatility of 17.93% on the day [2] - The stock was listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange due to its daily volatility reaching 17.93%, with a net sell-off of 30.53 million yuan from brokerage seats [2] - The top five brokerage seats accounted for a total transaction of 127 million yuan, with a buying amount of 48.41 million yuan and a selling amount of 78.94 million yuan, resulting in a net sell-off of 30.53 million yuan [2] Trading Activity - The largest buying brokerage was Guoxin Securities Co., Ltd. Beijing Zhongguancun Street Securities with a purchase amount of 9.83 million yuan [2] - The largest selling brokerage was Huaxin Securities Co., Ltd. Shenzhen Yitian Road Securities with a selling amount of 19.57 million yuan [2] - The stock experienced a net outflow of 23.99 million yuan in main funds, with a significant outflow of 14.67 million yuan from large orders and 9.33 million yuan from major orders [2] Fund Flow - Over the past five days, the main funds have seen a net inflow of 21.18 million yuan [2] - The detailed buying and selling activities of the top brokerage seats indicate a strong selling pressure from Huaxin Securities [2] - The trading dynamics suggest a cautious sentiment among investors, reflected in the significant net outflow of funds on the day [2]

Group 1: Industry Performance - The chemical raw materials index increased by 0.40%, and the chemical machinery index rose by 1.28%, while the remaining five indices in the petroleum and chemical sectors declined [1] - The chemical pharmaceutical index decreased by 2.36%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index fell by 1.63% [1] - The petroleum processing index dropped by 0.20%, the petroleum extraction index remained stable, and the petroleum trade index decreased by 1.32% [1] Group 2: Commodity Prices - International crude oil prices saw a significant increase, with West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures settling at $65.72 per barrel, up 4.85% from September 19, and Brent crude oil futures at $70.13 per barrel, up 5.17% [1] - The top five rising petrochemical products included liquid chlorine up by 37.07%, paraquat mother liquid up by 6.25%, lithium battery electrolyte up by 5.71%, hydrogen peroxide up by 4.64%, and fluorite 97 wet powder up by 4.09% [1] - The top five declining petrochemical products included vitamin E down by 7.07%, sulfuric acid down by 6.54%, vitamin B6 down by 5.83%, methyl acrylate down by 5.59%, and dichloromethane down by 3.83% [1] Group 3: Capital Market Performance - The top five rising listed chemical companies were Lanfeng Biochemical up by 61.16%, Shuangwei New Materials up by 44.81%, Huarsoft Technology up by 31.83%, United Chemical up by 27.93%, and Asia-Pacific Industry up by 27.66% [2] - The top five declining listed chemical companies were Jinpu Titanium down by 23.15%, Hanwei Technology down by 18.80%, Sanwei Co. down by 14.29%, Hongda Co. down by 13.56%, and Bingyang Technology down by 11.93% [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - The refinery's recent production schedule has increased, raising supply pressure. Although the peak season stimulates demand recovery, the overall demand falls short of expectations and remains sluggish. Inventory remains stable, crude oil prices are rising, and cost support has strengthened in the short term. It is expected that the futures price will fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term, with asphalt 2511 fluctuating between 3445 - 3487 [7]. - Bullish factor: The relatively high cost of crude oil provides some support [9]. - Bearish factors: There is insufficient demand for high - priced goods, and overall demand is declining, with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [10]. - Main logic: On the supply side, supply pressure remains high; on the demand side, the recovery is weak [11]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Viewpoint - **Supply side**: In August 2025, the total planned production volume of domestic asphalt was 2413000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 5.1% and a year - on - year increase of 17.1%. The capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt samples this week was 42.0062%, a month - on - month increase of 5.632 percentage points. The national sample enterprise shipments were 312600 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.31%. The sample enterprise output was 701000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.49%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 601000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 14.02%. Refineries have increased production this week, increasing supply pressure, but supply pressure may decrease next week [7]. - **Demand side**: The construction start - up rate of heavy - traffic asphalt was 40%, a month - on - month increase of 0.17 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of building asphalt was 18.2%, unchanged from the previous month, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of modified asphalt was 18.9356%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.29 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of road - modified asphalt was 31%, a month - on - month increase of 0.69 percentage points, lower than the historical average. The construction start - up rate of waterproofing membranes was 35%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.57 percentage points, lower than the historical average. Overall, current demand is lower than the historical average [7]. - **Cost side**: The daily processing profit of asphalt was - 659.68 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 1.22%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 779.8729 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 10.36%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. Crude oil prices are rising, and it is expected that cost support will strengthen in the short term [7]. - **Basis**: On September 29th, the spot price in Shandong was 3500 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 11 - contract was 34 yuan/ton, with the spot price higher than the futures price, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Inventory**: Social inventory was 1.105 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.57%. Factory inventory was 658000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.77%. The inventory of diluted asphalt at ports was 15000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 37.5%. Social inventory continued to decline, factory inventory continued to accumulate, and port inventory continued to decline, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Market trend**: MA20 is downward, and the futures price of the 11 - contract closed above MA20, showing a neutral situation [7]. - **Main positions**: The net long position of the main players increased, showing a bullish situation [7]. 2. Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides the price, change, and other data of various asphalt contracts, including 01 - 12 contracts, as well as data on inventory, production, start - up rate, etc. For example, the price of the 01 - contract increased by 0.18% compared with the previous value; the weekly start - up rate of Shandong local refineries increased by 41.64% compared with the previous value [14]. 3. Asphalt Futures Market - Basis Trend - The report presents the historical trends of the Shandong and East China asphalt basis from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relationship between spot and futures prices [16][17]. 4. Asphalt Futures Market - Spread Analysis - **Main - contract spread**: It shows the spread trends of asphalt 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts from 2020 - 2025, which is useful for spread trading analysis [19][20]. - **Asphalt - crude oil price trend**: It shows the price trends of asphalt, Brent crude oil, and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the relationship between asphalt and crude oil prices [22][23]. - **Crude oil cracking spread**: It shows the cracking spread trends of asphalt - SC, asphalt - WTI, and asphalt - Brent from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [25][26][27]. - **Asphalt, crude oil, fuel oil price ratio trend**: It shows the price ratio trends of asphalt - SC and asphalt - fuel oil from 2020 - 2025, which helps to understand the relative price relationships among these products [29][31]. 5. Asphalt Spot Market - Market Prices in Different Regions - It shows the historical price trends of Shandong heavy - traffic asphalt from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the price changes in the local asphalt market [32][33]. 6. Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - **Profit analysis**: - **Asphalt profit**: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is helpful for analyzing the profitability of asphalt production [34][35]. - **Coking - asphalt profit spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of coking - asphalt profit from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the profit differences between coking and asphalt production [37][38][39]. - **Supply - side analysis**: - **Shipment volume**: It shows the historical weekly shipment volume trends of asphalt small - sample enterprises from 2020 - 2025, reflecting the sales situation of asphalt [41][42]. - **Diluted asphalt port inventory**: It shows the historical inventory trends of domestic diluted asphalt ports from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the supply situation of raw materials [43][44]. - **Production volume**: It shows the historical weekly and monthly production volume trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall supply of asphalt [46][47]. - **Maya crude oil price and Venezuelan crude oil monthly production trend**: It shows the historical price trends of Maya crude oil and the monthly production trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the impact of raw material supply on asphalt production [50][52]. - **Local refinery asphalt production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025, reflecting the production contribution of local refineries [53][54]. - **Start - up rate**: It shows the historical weekly start - up rate trends of asphalt from 2021 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the production activity of the asphalt industry [56][57]. - **Maintenance loss volume estimate**: It shows the historical estimated trends of asphalt maintenance loss volume from 2018 - 2025, which helps to understand the impact of equipment maintenance on supply [58][59]. - **Inventory analysis**: - **Exchange warehouse receipts**: It shows the historical trends of exchange warehouse receipts (total, social inventory, and factory inventory) from 2019 - 2025, which is important for understanding the overall inventory situation [61][62][63]. - **Social inventory and factory inventory**: It shows the historical trends of social inventory (70 samples) and factory inventory (54 samples) from 2022 - 2025, which helps to analyze the inventory structure [65][66]. - **Factory inventory inventory ratio**: It shows the historical trends of the factory inventory inventory ratio from 2018 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the inventory management efficiency of factories [68][69]. - **Import - export situation**: - **Export and import trends**: It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the international trade situation of asphalt [71][72]. - **South Korean asphalt import spread trend**: It shows the historical spread trends of South Korean asphalt imports from 2020 - 2025, which is important for analyzing the cost advantage of imported asphalt [74][75][76]. - **Demand - side analysis**: - **Petroleum coke production**: It shows the historical production volume trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for petroleum - related products [77][78]. - **Apparent consumption**: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the overall market demand [80][81]. - **Downstream demand**: - **Transportation fixed - asset investment in highway construction**: It shows the historical investment trends in highway construction from 2020 - 2025, which reflects the infrastructure - related demand for asphalt [83][84]. - **New local special bonds and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year**: It shows the historical trends of new local special bonds and the year - on - year change of infrastructure investment completion from 2019 - 2025, which is related to the demand for asphalt in infrastructure construction [85]. - **Downstream machinery demand**: It shows the historical sales volume trends of asphalt concrete pavers, the monthly working hours of excavators, the domestic sales volume of excavators, and the sales volume of road rollers from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in construction machinery [87][88][90]. - **Asphalt start - up rate**: - **Heavy - traffic asphalt start - up rate**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which is useful for analyzing the demand for heavy - traffic asphalt [92][93]. - **Asphalt start - up rate by use**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of building asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025, which helps to understand the demand for different types of asphalt [95][96]. - **Downstream start - up situation**: It shows the historical start - up rate trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, waterproof - membrane modified asphalt, etc. from 2019 - 2025, which reflects the demand for asphalt in different downstream applications [98][99][101]. - **Supply - demand balance sheet**: It provides the monthly supply - demand balance data of asphalt from January 2024 - September 2025, including production, import, export, inventory, and downstream demand, which helps to comprehensively analyze the market supply - demand relationship [103][104].

īs ​ 沥青早报 | | | | | | | | HIST. LA HOLO FARS ALAA | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 指标 | 8/29 | 9/19 | 9/25 | 9/26 | 9/29 | 日度变化 | 周度变化 | | | BU主力合约 | 3507 | 3421 | 3440 | 3450 | 3466 | 16 | 45 | | | BU10 | 3507 | 3420 | 3460 | 3469 | | 16 | ર | | | | | | | | 3485 | | | | | BU11 | 3489 | 3421 | 3440 | 3450 | 3466 | 16 | 45 | | | BU12 | 3433 | 3374 | 3382 | 3412 | 3418 | 6 | 44 | | 播 | BU01 | 3399 | 3353 | 3360 | 3396 | 3402 | 6 | 49 | | | | | | | | | 7 | | | | BU03 | 3408 | 336 ...