石油沥青日报 | 2026-02-05 1、2月4日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2603合约下午收盘价3361元/吨，较昨日结算价上涨56元/吨，涨幅 1.69%；持仓98945手，环比下跌11833手，成交148496手，环比下跌18918手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3506—3600元/吨；山东，3240—3280元/吨；华南，3300—3320元/吨； 华东，3250—3280元/吨。 近期能源板块波动受到伊朗局势影响较大。周初伊朗与美国计划开展谈判的消息一度导致油价大幅回撤。昨日局 势再度出现波折，伊朗无人机被美军击落，市场担忧情绪再度升温，原油地缘溢价反弹。此外，美印协议达成， 印度计划削减俄油采购，这将进一步减少100万桶/日的俄油消纳能力，同时增加合规油的采购，这将收紧非制裁油 市场，对国际油价形成一定支撑。整体来看，原油价格反弹带动包括沥青在内的下游能化品再度上涨。但伊朗局 势依然没有确定性的信号，2月6日美伊双方将在阿曼举行谈判，期间消息面的变化可能造成市场反复波动。 站在沥青自身基本面的角度，供需两弱格局延续，成交量相对偏低，局部现货偏紧。如果抛开地缘与宏观层面的 扰动 ...

Report Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - For pure benzene, a private large refinery's reforming fluidized bed had a malfunction on Wednesday, and its impact on pure benzene production capacity should be monitored. Port inventory slightly decreased at the beginning of this week, with low downstream pick - up volume but a slower arrival rhythm. Downstream, styrene's start - up rate is gradually bottoming out and rising, while CPL's start - up rate is further decreasing, and aniline, phenol, and adipic acid's start - up rates remain high. Domestic pure benzene start - up rate is still low, and there is a possibility of the US increasing tariffs on South Korea, which might lead to increased pressure on South Korea to ship pure benzene to China [2]. - For styrene, the lowest point of domestic start - up rate may have passed, with Sinochem Quanzhou restarting and Tianjin Bohua having a restart expectation. Styrene's port inventory increased again at the beginning of the week and is entering the seasonal pre - holiday inventory rebuilding cycle. The start - up rates of EB downstream industries have peaked and declined, and the inventory pressure of the three major hard rubber products has been relieved [2]. Summary by Directory 1. Pure Benzene and EB's Basis Structure and Inter - Period Spreads - Pure benzene's main basis is - 30 yuan/ton (+1), and the spread between East China pure benzene spot and M2 is - 95 yuan/ton (- 5 yuan/ton) [1]. - Styrene's main basis is 143 yuan/ton (+24 yuan/ton) [1]. 2. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Production Profits and Domestic - Foreign Spreads - Pure benzene's CFR China processing fee is 185 US dollars/ton (+16 US dollars/ton), and FOB South Korea processing fee is 184 US dollars/ton (+18 US dollars/ton). The price difference between the US and South Korea is 100.0 US dollars/ton (+1.1 US dollars/ton) [1]. - Styrene's non - integrated production profit is 614 yuan/ton (+51 yuan/ton), and it is expected to gradually compress [1]. 3. Pure Benzene and Styrene's Inventory and Start - up Rates - Pure benzene's port inventory is 30.50 tons (+0.00 tons), and its start - up rate is low [1][2]. - Styrene's East China port inventory is 108,600 tons (+8,000 tons), East China commercial inventory is 60,800 tons (- 1,500 tons), and the start - up rate is 69.3% (- 0.4%) [1]. 4. Styrene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - EPS production profit is 59 yuan/ton (- 139 yuan/ton), PS production profit is - 391 yuan/ton (- 39 yuan/ton), and ABS production profit is - 952 yuan/ton (- 55 yuan/ton) [2]. - EPS start - up rate is 53.26% (- 5.45%), PS start - up rate is 55.60% (- 1.70%), and ABS start - up rate is 66.10% (- 0.70%) [2]. 5. Pure Benzene's Downstream Start - up and Production Profits - Caprolactam production profit is - 880 yuan/ton (- 15), phenol - ketone production profit is - 766 yuan/ton (+0), aniline production profit is 1134 yuan/ton (- 107), and adipic acid production profit is - 309 yuan/ton (+0) [1]. - Caprolactam start - up rate is 73.57% (- 2.60%), phenol start - up rate is 88.00% (+2.50%), aniline start - up rate is 88.53% (+0.92%), and adipic acid start - up rate is 68.50% (- 0.60%) [1].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not explicitly provide an overall industry investment rating but offers individual ratings for each variety: - **Bearish**: Crude oil (Short - term bearish rebound), LPG (Cautiously bearish), L (Bearish consolidation), PP (Bearish consolidation), MEG (Cautiously bearish), Methanol (Cautiously bearish), Urea (Cautiously chase up), LNG (Cautiously bearish), Asphalt (Cautiously bearish) [1][2][4] - **Bullish**: PVC (Oscillating strongly), PTA (Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks) [1][26] - **Neutral**: Glass (Low - level oscillation), Soda Ash (Bearish consolidation) [4] 2. Report's Core View The report analyzes various energy and chemical products, considering factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, cost support, and seasonal factors. It provides short - term and long - term outlooks and trading strategies for each product, emphasizing the importance of risk management due to geopolitical uncertainties and seasonal demand changes. 3. Summary by Variety Crude Oil - **Core View**: Short - term bearish rebound, with long - term downward pressure due to supply surplus and seasonal demand weakness [1][7] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause price fluctuations. The supply surplus situation remains unchanged, and the arrival of the demand off - season exerts downward pressure on prices. Key variables include US shale oil production and geopolitical developments in Russia - Ukraine and the Middle East [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the supply - demand fundamentals will improve after the first quarter. Short - term, pay attention to Middle East geopolitical progress. SC focus range: [465 - 480] [9] LPG - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [1] - **Main Logic**: Cost support weakens as the geopolitical premium of oil prices declines. Chemical demand weakens, with a decrease in PDH operating rates. Although port inventories have decreased, the overall fundamentals are bearish [1] - **Strategy**: In the long - term, the price center is expected to continue to decline. Short - term, due to uncertainties in oil prices, the fundamentals are bearish. PG focus range: [4150 - 4250] [13] L (Linear Low - Density Polyethylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [14] - **Main Logic**: Standard product devices are returning, leading to weaker basis and monthly spreads. The industry is slightly accumulating inventory, and the fundamentals are bearish. It is recommended that the industry consider selling hedges on rallies. With the return of devices, production is expected to increase this week, and the demand for agricultural films is in the off - season [17] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [6800 - 7000] [17] PP (Polypropylene) - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [18] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical disturbances exist, and it follows cost fluctuations in the short - term. The current supply - demand situation is weak, with a 22% parking ratio, alleviating supply pressure. PDH profits are low, providing cost support [21] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the range of [6650 - 6850] [21] PVC (Polyvinyl Chloride) - **Core View**: Oscillating strongly [22] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation and export rush support near - month prices, with stronger basis and monthly spreads. Although the short - term export situation is good, the long - term supply - demand is expected to weaken, and the high - inventory structure is difficult to change [25] - **Strategy**: Focus on the range of [5000 - 5200] [25] PTA (Purified Terephthalic Acid) - **Core View**: Positive outlook, buy on significant pullbacks [26] - **Main Logic**: Valuation has been repaired, with improved processing fees. Supply - side devices are under planned maintenance, and downstream demand is seasonally weak. PX supply - demand is in a weak balance. There is seasonal inventory accumulation in January - February, but the outlook is positive [27] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the 05 contract and consider buying on pullbacks. TA05 focus range: [5110 - 5230] [27] MEG (Ethylene Glycol) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [28] - **Main Logic**: Low valuation has been repaired, but supply - demand is weakening. Domestic device operating rates have increased, overseas devices have slightly increased their loads, and port inventories are rising. Downstream demand is seasonally weak [29] - **Strategy**: Look for short - selling opportunities on rebounds. EG05 focus range: [3710 - 3810] [30] Methanol - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [2] - **Main Logic**: The main contract is at a high valuation in the past three months. Domestic device operating rates are high, while overseas devices have significantly reduced their loads. Demand has weakened significantly, but there is short - term bullish support due to geopolitical conflicts and rising overseas natural gas costs [33] - **Strategy**: The supply - side pressure still exists, and demand is weak. Pay attention to buying opportunities on pullbacks. MA05 focus range: [2235 - 2295] [35] Urea - **Core View**: Cautiously chase up [2] - **Main Logic**: The absolute valuation is not low, and the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong is strong. The overall operating load is rising, and the demand is strong in the short - term but is expected to weaken during the holiday season. The export situation is relatively good, but the spread of the arbitrage window has narrowed [37] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up. UR05 focus range: [1770 - 1800] [39] LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [40] - **Main Logic**: The impact of the cold wave on gas prices has weakened. Although the demand for heating in winter provides support, the supply is relatively sufficient, putting pressure on gas prices [43] - **Strategy**: NG focus range: [3.370 - 3.665] [44] Asphalt - **Core View**: Cautiously bearish [45] - **Main Logic**: Geopolitical uncertainties in the Middle East cause oil price fluctuations. The supply - demand of asphalt is relatively loose, and the demand is in the off - season. The cost is affected by the supply of Venezuelan crude oil [48] - **Strategy**: Pay attention to the import situation of asphalt raw materials. Be cautious about risks due to geopolitical uncertainties. BU focus range: [3300 - 3400] [49] Glass - **Core View**: Low - level oscillation [50] - **Main Logic**: The suspension of coal exports from Indonesia has pushed up coal prices, and the basis has weakened. The fundamentals are in a weak supply - demand situation, with high - level inventory slightly decreasing. The daily melting volume has increased, and supply reduction is needed to digest inventory [53] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further cold - repair is realized. FG focus range: [1070 - 1120] [53] Soda Ash - **Core View**: Bearish consolidation [54] - **Main Logic**: Supply - demand changes are small, and it rebounds weakly following the cost. The demand from the real - estate sector is weak, and the demand for heavy soda ash is insufficient. The second - phase 2.8 - million - ton device of Yuanxing has been put into production, and short - term device maintenance has increased, putting pressure on supply [57] - **Strategy**: Be cautious about chasing up before further maintenance intensifies. SA focus range: [1190 - 1240] [57]

Group 1 - The A-share market indices opened lower, with the chemical sector experiencing volatility, as evidenced by the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index declining by 0.6% [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has seen a net inflow of over 1.4 billion yuan over the past 14 trading days, indicating strong investor interest [1] - The shift in national and local policies from energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions is expected to impose more direct emission reduction pressures on high-carbon industries like chemicals, leading to further supply-side contraction [1] Group 2 - Global chemical production capacity expansion is nearing its end, and industry activities aimed at reducing internal competition are limiting capacity growth [1] - There is potential for increased overseas downstream demand due to global liquidity easing, which could enhance the elasticity of the chemical industry if the Producer Price Index (PPI) turns positive [1] - As of February 2, 2026, the China Chemical Price Index rose to 4092, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 4.1% [1] Group 3 - The China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index includes leading companies in petrochemicals, basic chemicals, and coal chemicals, focusing on sub-industries with clear supply-demand improvements and sensitivity to price increases [1] - The E Fund Chemical Industry ETF (516570) has a management fee rate of 0.15% per year, the lowest among all ETFs in the market, facilitating low-cost investment in leading chemical enterprises [1]

近期，国际油价在美伊紧张局势反复、OPEC+主动调控及北美极端天气等多重因素交织下波动明显， 布伦特原油价格一度突破70美元/桶。油价震动中，资金抢筹布局石油板块，聚焦全产业链工具石油 ETF(561360)近20日吸金超20亿元。 | 近5日净流入 84885 | | | | 单位(万元) | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 5587 | | | 5154 | | | | -5454 | -977 | | | 1-29 | 1-30 | 2-2 | 2-3 | 2-4 | | 天数 | | 净流天 | 净流额 | 净流率 | | 5 | | 3 | 89196 | 58.37% | | 10 | | 8 | 179306 | 324.97% | | 20 | | 17 | 204258 | 747.04% | 油价的短期波动背后，是地缘风险溢价与长期基本面逻辑的角力。当前石油化工行业正站在一个复杂而 关键的十字路口：短期地缘冲击带来不确定性，而中长期则面临全球供需再平衡与国内产业结构深度升 级的双重变局。 事件聚焦：地缘政治"黑天鹅"与供需突发扰动 本周，石油市场的焦 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic styrene market continues to rise, driven by a combination of supply tightening, export demand support, and rising costs. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, downstream stocking is slowing, and the fundamentals are shifting from tight to loose, with supply-demand dynamics expected to dominate price trends post-festival [3][15]. Group 1: Supply and Demand Dynamics - In January 2026, unexpected production cuts led to a tight balance in the styrene supply, with national operating rates at near historical lows due to both planned and unplanned maintenance [5][17]. - By February, several major production facilities, including Tianjin Bohua and Sinopec Quanzhou, are expected to restart, potentially increasing domestic styrene capacity utilization and shifting the market towards a more relaxed supply situation [5][17]. - The overall supply-demand balance is likely to shift from tight to loose in February, influenced by the resumption of production and seasonal declines in downstream demand due to the Spring Festival [13][27]. Group 2: Cost and Pricing Factors - Recent geopolitical risks have driven international crude oil prices higher, creating a cost support for styrene. However, the sustainability of this support is uncertain, as easing tensions in the Middle East could lead to a price correction [3][15]. - The low inventory levels have been a key factor supporting styrene prices, with a tight market environment encouraging sellers to hold prices firm [10][24]. - Despite strong downstream consumption in 2025, rising styrene prices have led to profit compression in the industry, causing some high-cost factories to reduce production [21][22]. Group 3: Export Market Trends - Export transactions for styrene were strong in January and February, alleviating domestic supply pressures. However, as the shipping cycle approaches in March, export discussions have cooled due to high domestic prices and increased international supply from regions like Japan and the Middle East [11][24]. - If export volumes do not increase in March, domestic inventory pressures may rise, impacting the overall market balance [11][24]. Group 4: Future Outlook - The styrene market is currently in a tight balance, supported by low inventory levels and ongoing export demand. However, the market is expected to face downward pressure post-Spring Festival due to anticipated increases in supply and seasonal declines in demand [13][27]. - The price of styrene is expected to experience fluctuations before the festival, followed by potential corrections afterward, depending on production recovery rates and downstream demand resumption [13][27].

2026 年 2 月 5 日 LPG：短期地缘扰动偏强，基本面驱动向下 丙烯：上行驱动有限，关注成本端扰动 陈鑫超 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020238 chenxinchao@gtht.com 赵书岑（联系人） 期货从业资格号：F03147780 zhaoshucen@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 | | | | 昨日收盘价 | 日涨幅 | 夜盘收盘价 夜盘涨幅 | | | | | 昨日成交 较前日变动 昨日持仓 较前日变动 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | PG | 2603 | 4,251 | 1.36% | 4,210 | -0.96% | | 2603 | 63,145 | -9,415 | 60,675 | -4,471 | | | | 2604 | 4,516 | 1.55% | 4,500 | -0.35% | PG | 2604 | 25,787 | 638 | 66,710 | 2,990 | | 期货市场 | | 2605 | 4,425 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - This week, the near - month contract of Singapore 380cst continued to strengthen, reaching a five - year high. After the crack spread rose, it entered a consolidation phase. Short - term arbitrage logistics tightened, and Singapore's residue inventory decreased significantly. The low - sulfur crack spread of MF0.5 declined, reaching a historical low, and the month - to - month spread was at a historical low for the same period. In terms of inventory, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased significantly, EIA residue inventory continued to decline, ARA residue inventory increased, and Fujairah's inventory increase accelerated. Under the new situation in Venezuela, heavy - oil logistics is tilted towards the United States, Canadian heavy oil is seeking new buyers, and the price of Merey crude oil has risen. Recently, the situation in Iran and arbitrage logistics have affected 380, the high - sulfur spot market has tightened, and the crack spread has rebounded. In the short term, high - sulfur fuel oil has the strongest driving force among oil products. However, attention should be paid to over - heating of domestic and foreign sentiment, and the overseas low - sulfur market remains weak [3][4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Rotterdam Fuel Oil Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, the price of Rotterdam 3.5% HSF O swap M1 increased by 10.79, Rotterdam 0.5% VLS FO swap M1 increased by 12.25, Rotterdam HSFO - Brent M1 increased by - 0.14, Rotterdam 10ppm Gasoil swap M1 increased by 18.00, Rotterdam VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by - 5.75, LGO - Brent M1 remained unchanged, and Rotterdam VLSFO - HSFO M1 increased by 1.46 [1] Singapore Fuel Oil Swap Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, Singapore 380cst M1 increased by 22.59, Singapore 180cst M1 increased by 24.27, Singapore VLSFO M1 increased by 19.86, Singapore Gasoil M1 increased by 2.99, Singapore 380cst - Brent M1 increased by 0.90, and Singapore VLSFO - Gasoil M1 increased by - 2.27 [1][9] Singapore Fuel Oil Spot Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, FOB 380cst increased by 12.26, FOB VLSFO increased by 11.71, the 380 basis decreased by 0.86, the high - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference decreased by 0.3, and the low - sulfur domestic - foreign price difference increased by 0.2 [2] Domestic FU Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, FU 01 increased by 49, FU 05 increased by 86, FU 09 increased by 69, FU 01 - 05 decreased by 37, FU 05 - 09 increased by 17, and FU 09 - 01 increased by 20 [2] Domestic LU Data - From January 29 to February 4, 2026, LU 01 increased by 100, LU 05 increased by 95, LU 09 increased by 86, LU 01 - 05 increased by 5, LU 05 - 09 increased by 9, and LU 09 - 01 decreased by 14 [3]

2025年8月液化石油气产量统计： 液化石油气产量：6.2 万吨 同比增长：-18.8% 增速较上一年同期变化：低28.2个百分点 据统计，2025年8月湖南省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比下降了18.8%，达6.2万 吨，增速较上一年同期低28.2个百分点，增速较同期全国低17.9个百分点，约占同期全国规模以上企业 液化石油气产量449.5万吨的比重为1.4%。 详见下图： 图1：湖南省液化石油气产量分月（当月值）统计图 摘要：【图】2025年8月湖南省液化石油气产量数据分析 液化石油气产量：38.4 万吨 同比增长：-34.9% 增速较上一年同期变化：低38.6个百分点 据统计，2025年1－8月，湖南省规模以上工业企业液化石油气产量与上年同期相比下降了34.9%，达 38.4万吨，增速较上一年同期低38.6个百分点，增速较同期全国低32.8个百分点，约占同期全国规模以 上企业液化石油气产量3527.7万吨的比重为1.1%。详见下图： 图2：湖南省液化石油气产量分月（累计值）统计图 2025年1-8月液化石油气产量统计： 注：主要能源产品产量月度统计范围为规模以上工业法人单位，即年主营业务收 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 2 月 5 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 表1： 行情回顾(元/吨) | | 开盘 | 收盘 | 最高 | 最低 | 涨跌幅% | 成交量（万手） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | BU2603 | 3324 | 3361 | 3384 | 3311 | 1.69 | 14.85 | | BU2606 | 3320 | 3359 | 3383 | 3305 | 1.88 | 3.54 | 数据来源：wind,建信期货研究发展部 现货市场方面，华北、山东以及华南地区沥青现货价格均出现上涨，其余地 区沥青现货价格大体企稳 ...