1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil from last week, as the fundamentals will support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - emerges, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] - For methanol, due to the mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [5] - For urea, with relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] - For rubber, adopt a bullish approach in the medium - term, and a neutral or slightly bullish short - term strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] - For PVC, with a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] - For styrene, the BZN spread is expected to repair in the long term, and it's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] - For polyethylene, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] - For polypropylene, with high inventory pressure and no prominent short - term contradictions, the current situation is supply - demand weak [24] - For p - xylene, due to high load and lack of driving factors, it's recommended to wait and see [28] - For PTA, considering the supply and demand situation and valuation, it's suggested to wait and see [29] - For ethylene glycol, with a weak outlook and relatively high valuation, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Crude Oil - **Market Quotes**: WTI main crude oil futures fell $0.92, or 1.45%, to $62.72; Brent main crude oil futures fell $0.86, or 1.27%, to $66.66; INE main crude oil futures fell 4.20 yuan, or 0.86%, to 485.8 yuan. China's weekly crude oil data showed that crude oil arrival inventory increased by 0.39 million barrels to 213.76 million barrels, gasoline commercial inventory increased by 0.63 million barrels to 91.39 million barrels, diesel commercial inventory increased by 0.72 million barrels to 103.95 million barrels, and total refined oil commercial inventory increased by 1.35 million barrels to 195.34 million barrels [1] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Maintain the view of overweighting crude oil, as the fundamentals support the current price, and if the geopolitical premium re - opens, oil prices will have more upside potential [2] Methanol - **Market Quotes**: Taicang price dropped 1 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia dropped 20 yuan/ton, southern Shandong rose 10 yuan/ton, the 01 contract on the futures market dropped 13 yuan/ton to 2348 yuan/ton, and the basis was - 96. The 1 - 5 spread dropped 8 to - 28 [4] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Supply - side production declined, while demand - side port olefin plants restarted. Port inventory continued to rise but at a slower pace, and was at a historical high, while the inland was in a tight balance. It's recommended to wait and see due to mixed fundamentals and high inventory pressure [5] Urea - **Market Quotes**: Shandong's spot price dropped 20 yuan, Henan dropped 20 yuan, the domestic market was generally weak. The 01 contract on the futures market dropped 1 yuan/ton to 1660 yuan/ton, the basis was - 50, and the 1 - 5 spread rose 8 to - 53 [7] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The futures price fell with increasing positions. The domestic supply recovered, demand was weak, and enterprise inventory rose again. With relatively low valuation but lack of driving factors, it's suggested to wait and see or consider going long at low prices [8] Rubber - **Market Quotes**: Rubber spot prices were supported, and futures were oversold. Thailand's rainfall forecast for the next 7 days was not significant, and supply - side positive factors were limited. As of September 18, 2025, the operating load of all - steel tires of Shandong tire enterprises was 64.96%, up 0.09 percentage points from last week and 7.57 percentage points from the same period last year; the operating load of semi - steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 74.58%, up 0.28 percentage points from last week and down 2.17 percentage points from the same period last year. As of September 14, China's natural rubber social inventory was 123.5 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2 million tons, a decline of 1.8% [10][12] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the medium - term, adopt a bullish approach; in the short - term, the market has stabilized, with a neutral or slightly bullish strategy, buying on dips and exiting quickly [13] PVC - **Market Quotes**: The PVC01 contract dropped 12 yuan to 4938 yuan, the spot price of Changzhou SG - 5 was 4780 yuan/ton, the basis was - 158 (+12) yuan/ton, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 302 (+1) yuan/ton. The overall PVC operating rate was 77%, a month - on - month decrease of 3%; downstream demand - side overall operating rate was 49.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.7%. Factory inventory was 30.6 million tons (- 0.4), and social inventory was 95.4 million tons (+1.9) [14] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: Fundamentally, enterprise comprehensive profit declined, production was at a historical high, and short - term new plants were to be commissioned. Domestic demand improved, but export expectations weakened. With a supply - strong and demand - weak situation, it's advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium - term [14] Styrene - **Market Quotes**: The spot price remained unchanged, the futures price dropped, and the basis strengthened. The BZN spread was at a relatively low level in the same period, and the port inventory decreased significantly. The overall operating rate of the "three S" on the demand side increased [17] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: In the long term, the BZN spread is expected to repair. When the inventory destocking inflection point appears, styrene prices may rebound. It's recommended to go long on the spread between US and South Korea's pure benzene at low prices [18] Polyethylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price also declined, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate increased, inventory at production enterprises and traders increased, and the downstream average operating rate rose [20] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The market is waiting for favorable policies from the Chinese Ministry of Finance at the end of the third quarter, and cost - side support remains. With limited downward valuation space for PE, but high inventory pressure, the price is expected to fluctuate upwards in the long run [21] Polypropylene - **Market Quotes**: The futures price dropped, the spot price remained unchanged, and the basis strengthened. The upstream operating rate remained unchanged, production enterprise inventory decreased, trader inventory decreased, and port inventory increased. The downstream average operating rate rose [23] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With remaining planned production capacity on the supply side and high inventory pressure, and the downstream operating rate rebounding seasonally from a low level, it's a supply - demand weak situation with no prominent short - term contradictions [24] P - Xylene - **Market Quotes**: The PX11 contract dropped 2 yuan to 6592 yuan, PX CFR dropped 8 dollars to 808 dollars, and the basis was 30 yuan (- 66). The PX load in China was 86.3%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.5%; the Asian load was 78.2%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.8%. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. In early September, South Korea's PX exports to China were 10.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.6 million tons [26][27] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high PX load, many unexpected PTA maintenance in the short - term, and expected delay in new PTA plant commissioning, the PX inventory accumulation cycle is expected to continue. With lack of driving factors and PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [28] PTA - **Market Quotes**: The PTA01 contract dropped 18 yuan to 4586 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 45 yuan to 4510 yuan, the basis was - 84 (- 2) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 42 (+2) yuan. PTA load was 75.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.9%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. As of September 12, social inventory (excluding credit warehouse receipts) was 207.9 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.9 million tons [29] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: The supply - side unexpected maintenance volume remains high, and the inventory destocking pattern continues, but the processing fee space is limited. The demand - side polyester fiber inventory and profit pressure are low, but the terminal performance is weak. With the PXN under pressure, it's recommended to wait and see [29] Ethylene Glycol - **Market Quotes**: The EG01 contract dropped 17 yuan to 4240 yuan, the East China spot price dropped 7 yuan to 4344 yuan, the basis was 93 (+1) yuan, and the 1 - 5 spread was - 54 (+6) yuan. The ethylene glycol load was 73.8%, a month - on - month decrease of 1.1%. The downstream load was 91.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%. Port inventory was 46.7 million tons, an increase of 0.2 million tons [31] - **Strategy Viewpoints**: With high domestic and overseas plant loads and high domestic supply, the port inventory is expected to be low in the short - term. In the medium - term, with concentrated imports and expected high domestic load, and new plant commissioning, inventory will accumulate in the fourth quarter. With relatively high valuation and a weak outlook, it's recommended to short on rallies, while being cautious about the risk of the weak expectation not materializing [32]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas, Fed officials signaled a hawkish stance, the dollar index rose and then fell, and global risk appetite increased. Domestically, economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. However, domestic risk appetite increased overall, and the short - term upward macro - driving force strengthened. The market is focusing on domestic incremental stimulus policies, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - Different asset classes have different trends: the stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; in the commodity sector, black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Summary by Directory Macro - finance - **Macro situation**: Overseas, Fed officials' hawkish signals led to the dollar index rising and then falling, and global risk appetite increasing. Domestically, economic data such as consumption, investment, and industrial added value in August were lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The central bank adheres to its own - centered monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to attract long - term funds into the market. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [2]. - **Asset trends**: The stock index is expected to be volatile in the short term, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; black commodities are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; non - ferrous metals are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation; precious metals are expected to be strongly volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2]. Stock Index - The domestic stock market rose slightly driven by sectors such as precious metals, consumer electronics, and semiconductors. The economic data in August was lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow down. The short - term upward macro - driving force has strengthened, and future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. It is suggested to be cautiously long in the short term [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The domestic steel spot and futures markets continued to rebound slightly on Monday, with low trading volume. The visit of a US congressional delegation signaled a relaxation of Sino - US relations. The "Steel Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" proposed to continue production control, and there were rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. Demand improved slightly but varied by variety. The steel market is likely to be range - bound in the short term [4]. - **Iron ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore continued to rebound on Monday. Steel mills' restocking continued before the National Day holiday, and steel production enthusiasm was high. The global iron ore shipment volume decreased, while the arrival volume increased. The iron ore price should be treated with a range - bound mindset [4][5]. - **Silicon manganese/silicon iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat on Monday, and the futures prices rebounded after a significant decline. The manganese ore trading slowed down. The开工 rate of silicon manganese enterprises decreased, and the daily output decreased. The price of silicon iron was supported by factors such as electricity prices, and the production reduction space was limited. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [6]. - **Soda ash**: The main soda ash contract was weak on Monday. Supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply was still sufficient. Demand was stable week - on - week and improved in the peak season, but the terminal demand support did not change significantly. In the short term, supply and demand will increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [7]. - **Glass**: The main glass contract was weak on Monday. Glass production was stable, and downstream demand improved slightly in the peak season but with limited growth. The overall glass supply was stable, and demand was difficult to increase significantly. The policy sentiment was volatile, and it is expected to be range - bound in the short term [7]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - **Copper**: The Fed cut interest rates in September, and the Sino - US - Spanish economic and trade talks had a positive atmosphere. The spot TC of copper concentrate was stable, electrolytic copper production was at a high level, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production was limited. Future demand may decline marginally, and the upside space is restricted by the US economic slowdown [8]. - **Aluminum**: Aluminum prices fell slightly on Monday. After the Fed's interest - rate cut, non - ferrous metals returned to fundamental trading. The current aluminum fundamentals are weak, with social inventories not decreasing, demand recovering weakly in the peak season, and the spot price lagging behind the futures price [8]. - **Aluminum alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the production cost of recycled aluminum plants is rising. It is currently in the off - season of demand, and manufacturing orders are growing weakly. The price is expected to be range - bound with an upward bias in the short term, but the upside space is limited [9]. - **Tin**: The combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi remained low but rebounded slightly. It was mainly affected by the overhauls of some smelting enterprises in Yunnan and the tight supply of ore, but the impact is expected to be short - term. Terminal demand is weak, but due to the tightening of supply, inventory decreased significantly. The price is expected to be range - bound in the short term, with support from overhaul and peak - season expectations but limited upside space [9]. - **Lithium carbonate**: The main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.05% on Monday. The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight decrease in social inventory, and a transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The market is expected to be range - bound, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [10]. - **Industrial silicon**: The main industrial silicon 2511 contract fell 0.83% on Monday. There is no obvious positive factor, and the market is expected to be range - bound [10]. - **Polysilicon**: The main polysilicon 2511 contract fell 3.63% on Monday. The spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there are still strong policy expectations. It is expected to be range - bound at a high level in the short term, and attention should be paid to the support of spot prices [11]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude oil**: The market is weighing the EU's measures against Russian oil supply and the impact of Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy facilities. The next - round EU sanctions may target Asian enterprises, but the impact may be limited without stronger measures from the US and Europe. Ukraine's attacks have partially offset the current negative factors. The short - term oil price will continue to be range - bound with a downward bias [12][13]. - **Asphalt**: As oil prices continue to fall, the upside space for asphalt is limited, and the peak - season demand is passing, with excess pressure remaining. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory removal is limited. In the future, as crude oil prices are expected to fall due to OPEC+ production increases, attention should be paid to the extent to which asphalt follows crude oil price movements [13]. - **PX**: The main contract continued to be weakly range - bound following the polyester sector. The previous slight positive factors from low device operating rates and increased overhaul plans have been mostly priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly, and PX is still in a tight supply situation. It is expected to be weakly range - bound with some support at the bottom [13]. - **PTA**: There were rumors of joint production cuts by leading PTA factories, but no substantial news was released, and the price fell. Downstream operating rates have decreased, peak - season demand has disappointed, and downstream inventory has increased. However, due to low processing fees, leading devices have increased overhaul plans, providing some support at the previous low. In the short term, with an increase in short positions by funds, the futures price may face downward pressure [14]. - **Ethylene glycol**: Port inventory remained at 46.7 tons with little change, and the expected commissioning of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and the price is expected to remain low and range - bound. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there will be no obvious upward - driving force [14]. - **Short - fiber**: Short - fiber prices slightly decreased following the polyester sector. Terminal orders have increased seasonally but with limited growth. Short - fiber production has rebounded, leading to a limited increase in inventory. The future upward space may be limited, and it is suggested to consider short positions in the medium term [14]. - **Methanol**: Methanol futures were strongly range - bound, and the basis was weak. The domestic and imported supply decreased slightly in the short term, and the restart of port MTO units prevented inventory from rising. However, the supply - excess situation remains, and high inventory suppresses prices. In the long term, the possible reduction of imports in October due to Iranian device overhauls may change the supply - demand situation, and there may be opportunities for long positions [15]. - **PP**: The market quotation of PP decreased. The inventory of polyolefins from two major oil companies increased. Device overhauls led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream demand improved, with raw material inventory starting to rise. However, due to seasonal production increases and new capacity releases, the supply is still abundant, and the market is expected to be weakly range - bound in the short term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [15]. - **LLDPE**: The ex - factory prices of LLDPE from two major oil companies were partially adjusted, and the market price decreased. Device restarts increased supply, and the operating rate of the agricultural film industry increased slowly, with orders growing slower than in previous years. However, low inventory and stable oil prices provide some support. The overall supply - demand situation is pessimistic, and the price is expected to be weakly range - bound [16]. - **Urea**: The urea market adjusted downward. The current urea fundamentals show a pattern of strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory. Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period has limited impact, and industrial demand is still at a low level. Enterprise inventory is accumulating, while port inventory is decreasing. The market is under short - term pressure [17]. Agricultural Products - **US soybeans**: The November soybean contract on the CBOT market fell 1.39% overnight. Argentina's temporary cancellation of export taxes on soybeans and other grains dragged down the CBOT corn and soybean futures. However, the downgraded US soybean crop rating provided some support [18]. - **Soybean and rapeseed meal**: The domestic short - term supply - demand surplus situation remains unchanged, with high soybean arrivals, high oil - mill operating rates, and slow inventory digestion. Although the soybean meal market valuation is low, short - term risk appetite is not high, and US soybeans lack clear direction. It is expected that the soybean meal market will stabilize gradually from late September to October, as the overall supply - demand will shrink in the fourth quarter, and the cost support will strengthen. If the USDA adjusts its yield forecast, it may relieve export pressure and increase buying sentiment [19]. - **Oils**: The supply - demand situation of soybean oil remains weak, with limited pre - holiday consumption support and continuous release of supply pressure. The market sentiment is cautious. For rapeseed oil, the Sino - Canadian trade relationship has not improved, and the market sentiment is still cautious. During the seasonal peak - sales period, high inventory is being reduced, and there is a strong willingness to support prices. The domestic palm oil inventory has decreased significantly, and the basis price remains low. The export demand for Malaysian palm oil has improved, providing support for futures prices [20]. - **Corn**: The new - season corn in the Northeast is being harvested smoothly, with good quality and high opening prices that are currently stable. The price of new corn in North China continues to fall but at a slower pace, and the supply of old - season corn is tight with a firm price. The corn price in the sales area is stable, and downstream feed mills have low inventory, providing some support. Traders are not willing to store corn, and there is an expectation of price decline during the peak - listing period from mid - October to November. The futures price has strong support due to a large discount to the spot price [20]. - **Pigs**: The pig price has reached a new low this year, and the breeding profit has further shrunk, with some self - breeding and self - raising farms incurring losses. The supply of pigs in the market is still sufficient, and demand is stable. There is limited support at present. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of pork reserve purchases on farmers' price - holding sentiment. With the approaching of the double festivals, there may be inventory - building demand in the short term. It is expected that the pig price will stabilize in the second half of the month, with limited rebound space [20].

Market Overview - The futures market is experiencing widespread declines, with major contracts such as 20 rubber, glass, coking coal, and rubber all dropping over 2% [3] - The palm oil market has also seen a decline of 2%, while other commodities like silver, live pigs, and synthetic rubber have dropped nearly 2% [3] - The overall sentiment in the market remains unstable, with the recent interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve not providing the expected support [6] Financial Futures Sector - The stock index futures have shown volatility, with the CSI 300 index futures (IF) down 1.35% and the SSE 50 index futures (IH) down 1.40% [6] - The market is currently assessing the future interest rate path of the Federal Reserve, with a divergence in expectations among officials regarding future rate cuts [6] Precious Metals Market - The gold market is undergoing high-level adjustments, with limited upside potential due to fewer expected rate cuts from the Federal Reserve [7] - Geopolitical tensions and central banks' continued accumulation of gold support long-term demand, but rising nominal interest rates are exerting pressure on gold prices [7] Industrial Products Sector - The industrial products sector is under pressure, with copper prices declining due to less-than-expected support from the Federal Reserve's rate cut [8] - Aluminum prices have also retreated after a previous breakout, while nickel prices are finding support at lower ranges [8] Energy and Chemical Sector - The energy and chemical sector is generally weak, with methanol inventories remaining high and market sentiment declining [15] - PVC supply and demand remain weak, leading to a short-term stabilization followed by a downturn [16] Shipping and Container Market - The shipping market, particularly the European route, is experiencing significant declines, with the Shanghai export container settlement price index dropping 8.1% [19] - The current supply pressure is evident, with global container capacity exceeding 32.9 million TEU, a year-on-year increase of 8% [19] Key Focus Points for Next Week - Upcoming U.S. employment and inflation data will be critical in influencing the Federal Reserve's monetary policy direction [21] - Attention should also be given to geopolitical risks and the outcomes of other central banks' meetings [21]

文字早评 2025/09/22 星期一 宏观金融类 股指 【行情资讯】 1、9 月 19 日晚，国家主席习近平同美国总统特朗普通电话，就当前中美关系和共同关心的问题坦诚深 入交换意见，就下阶段中美关系稳定发展作出战略指引。 2、央行、金融监管总局、证监会、外汇局负责人将于 9 月 22 日下午 3 点召开新闻发布会，介绍"十四 五"时期金融业发展成就; 3、据报道，OpenAI 算力告急，计划五年内斥资 1000 亿美元租赁备用服务器； 4、苹果已通知两家供应商，将 iPhone 17 的日产量至少提升 30%。 期指基差比例： IF 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.18%/-0.33%/-0.83%/-1.37%； IC 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.16%/-0.91%/-2.60%/-4.86%； IM 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.13%/-1.27%/-3.33%/-6.17%； IH 当月/下月/当季/隔季：0.30%/0.12%/0.13%/0.19%。 【策略观点】 经过前期持续上涨后，AI 等高位热点板块近期出现分歧，资金高低切换，快速轮动，市场风险偏好有所 降低。叠加市场成交量的萎缩，短期指数面临 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is beneficial for the further rise of risk assets. The process of Chinese residents moving their deposits indicates an overall increase in risk appetite. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets in major asset classes, such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. Also, the allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the allocation opportunities in the fourth quarter can be monitored [8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights Overseas Macro - In the September Fed meeting, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points as expected, reducing the federal funds rate target range from 4.25% - 4.5% to 4.00% - 4.25%. This is the first interest rate cut this year. The statement noted a slowdown in US employment growth, a slight increase in the unemployment rate, and an increase in employment downside risks. The median interest rate forecast shows that the Fed expects three interest rate cuts this year and one more next year [8]. Domestic Macro - In China, the progress of physical work in the fourth quarter and changes in financial market liquidity need to be observed. The issuance of special bonds related to infrastructure is stable, supporting the physical demand of infrastructure projects in the fourth quarter. However, there is a risk that more special bond funds may be used for debt resolution rather than infrastructure. With the uncertain implementation of the 500 - billion - yuan new policy - based financial instruments, the demand for physical consumption of commodities may be postponed to the end of the fourth quarter. Investors in financial assets are recommended to focus on the process of residents moving their deposits and inflation changes [8]. Asset Views - For global major asset classes, the improvement of US dollar liquidity is a medium - term trend, which is favorable for risk assets. In China, as residents are moving their deposits, the risk preference is rising. It is recommended to focus on liquidity - sensitive risk assets such as CSI 1000 index futures, non - ferrous metals, oilseeds, and precious metals. The allocation value of Chinese bonds has increased, and the fourth - quarter allocation opportunities can be considered [8]. 3.2 View Highlights Financial Sector - For stock index futures, use a dumbbell structure to deal with market differences, and the short - term judgment is sideways due to the decline of incremental funds. For stock index options, continue the hedging and defensive strategy, and the short - term judgment is sideways considering the possible deterioration of option market liquidity. For treasury bond futures, the stock - bond seesaw may continue in the short term, and the short - term judgment is sideways with concerns about unexpected tariff changes, supply, and monetary easing [9]. Precious Metals - With the restart of the US interest - rate cut cycle in September and the increasing risk of the Fed's independence, the prices of gold and silver are expected to rise sideways, while paying attention to the US fundamentals, Fed monetary policy, and global equity market trends [9]. Shipping - For the container shipping route to Europe, as the peak season in the third quarter fades and loading is under pressure, there is no upward driving force. The short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on the rate of freight decline in September [9]. Black Building Materials - For steel, the macro - environment is favorable, but there are still real - world pressures. The short - term judgment is sideways, paying attention to the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and pig iron production. For iron ore, with a slight increase in pig iron production, the price fluctuates sideways, and factors such as overseas mine production and shipping, domestic pig iron production, weather, and port inventory need to be monitored. For coke, with strong cost support, the price fluctuates at a high level, and factors such as steel mill production, coking costs, and macro - sentiment should be noted. For coking coal, with the rebound of spot coal prices and a slight increase in supply, the short - term judgment is sideways, focusing on steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro - sentiment. For other products like silicon iron, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash, the short - term judgments are all sideways, each with its own key points of concern [9]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - For copper, due to supply disruptions in copper mines, the price fluctuates upward sideways, and factors such as supply disruptions, domestic policy surprises, and Fed policy need to be considered. For aluminum, zinc, and other metals, most of them have inventory accumulation issues, and the short - term judgments are sideways, with different risk and concern factors for each. For lead, with a decline in secondary lead supply, the price fluctuates upward sideways. For nickel, due to the crackdown on illegal mining in Indonesia, the price fluctuates widely. For stainless steel, with strong cost support, the price rises significantly, and specific risks and demand factors should be noted [9]. Energy and Chemicals - For most energy and chemical products such as crude oil, LPG, asphalt, and various fuels, the short - term judgments are mainly sideways or sideways - down, with different influencing factors such as OPEC + production policies, geopolitical situations, and cost - end changes. For chemical products like methanol, PTA, and short - fiber, the short - term judgments are also sideways, each affected by factors such as macro - energy, upstream - downstream device dynamics, and demand [11]. Agriculture - For most agricultural products such as grains, oils, and fibers, the short - term judgments are sideways, with factors such as weather, supply - demand relationships, and policy impacts to be considered [11].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The market may price in the probability of the Fed restarting rate cuts ahead of the September FOMC meeting. If volatility continues to decline, consider a long straddle options strategy for stock index futures [2]. - In the bond market, sentiment has improved, and Treasury bond futures have strengthened. The 10 - year Treasury bond yield may peak at 1.8% without incremental negative news, but downward movement is limited in the short - term. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35 [2]. - Gold may enter a high - level consolidation phase, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver's volatility has declined, and it is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - The main contract of the container shipping index (European line) is in a weak oscillation. Consider a spread arbitrage between the December and October contracts [2]. - Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Iron ore prices are supported by resuming shipments, rising hot metal production, and restocking demand [2]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500. Alumina may oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term. Aluminum and aluminum alloy are expected to trade within certain ranges [2]. - In the energy and chemical market, the short - term crude oil market lacks strong drivers. The urea supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. PX and PTA are expected to oscillate in the short - term [2]. - In the agricultural products market, palm oil is supported by falling production. Sugar is expected to be shorted in the short - term, and cotton should be observed on a wait - and - see basis [2]. - In the special and new energy products market, glass and rubber should be observed for the sustainability of spot sales. Industrial silicon is in a strong oscillation, and lithium carbonate is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2]. Group 3: Summaries by Related Catalogs Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: The export chain has risen, and A - share major indices are in the green. Consider a long straddle options strategy if volatility declines [2]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Bond market sentiment has improved. T2512 is expected to trade between 107.5 - 108.35. Use a range - trading strategy and be cautious about chasing up in the short - term [2]. - **Precious Metals**: Gold may enter high - level consolidation, and the long straddle options strategy should be closed with profit. Silver is trading between 40.5 - 42.5 dollars. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. Black - **Steel**: Coal supply contraction expectations have resurfaced, and coking coal has driven up steel prices. Short - term long positions are recommended [2]. - **Iron Ore**: Shipments have resumed, hot metal production has risen, and restocking demand supports prices. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 780 - 850 and short hot - rolled coils [2]. - **Coking Coal**: Coal production area减产 expectations have increased, and downstream restocking demand has improved. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1150 - 1300 and short coke [2]. - **Coke**: The second round of price cuts has been implemented, and the third round is difficult. Consider long positions in the 2601 contract between 1650 - 1800 and short coke while long coking coal [2]. Non - Ferrous - **Copper**: The 25bp rate cut was in line with expectations, and the price is expected to trade between 79000 - 81500 [2]. - **Alumina**: Supply - side disturbances in Guinea have increased. It is expected to oscillate widely around 2900 in the short - term [2]. - **Aluminum and Aluminum Alloy**: Aluminum is expected to trade between 20600 - 21000, and aluminum alloy between 20200 - 20600 [2]. - **Zinc**: The price is stronger overseas than in China, and social inventories are increasing. It is expected to trade between 21800 - 22800 [2]. - **Tin**: Supply is tight, and it is in high - level oscillation between 265000 - 285000 [2]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: Nickel is in a weak oscillation between 120000 - 125000, and stainless steel is slightly weakening between 12800 - 13400 [2]. Energy and Chemical - **Crude Oil**: The short - term market lacks strong drivers. Wait and see on a single - side basis. Resistance levels are set for WTI, Brent, and SC. Consider expanding opportunities on the options side after volatility increases [2]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure may ease after the maintenance season, but demand restricts the upside. Consider selling out - of - the - money put options at high prices [2]. - **PX and PTA**: PX is expected to oscillate between 6600 - 6900 in September. PTA is expected to be tight in September but weak in the medium - term, oscillating between 4600 - 4800 [2]. - **Other Chemicals**: Short - fiber, bottle - chip, ethanol, etc. each have their own supply - demand situations and corresponding trading suggestions [2]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: Production has declined, supporting its strong performance. Observe if the main contract can stay above 9500 [2]. - **Sugar**: Overseas supply is expected to be ample. Short - sell in the short - term and watch the 5600 resistance level [2]. - **Cotton**: Old - crop inventories are low before new - cotton is widely available. Adopt a wait - and - see approach [2]. Special and New Energy - **Glass and Rubber**: Observe the sustainability of spot sales. Rubber trading sentiment has weakened, and prices have slightly declined [2]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Spot prices have slightly increased, and it is in a strong oscillation between 8000 - 9500 [2]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is favorable, and it is in a tight - balance in the peak season. It is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term, it is expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2][3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Black Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile and slightly stronger, with a suggestion of short - term cautious long positions [2] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term, expected to be strong and volatile at a high level, with a suggestion of cautious long positions [2] 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dot - plot median implies 3 rate cuts this year. The short - term uncertainty of external risks has decreased, and the domestic easing expectation has increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The recent market trading logic focuses on domestic incremental stimulus policies and easing expectations, with a short - term increase in upward macro - driving forces [2][3][4] - Different sectors have different market trends and influencing factors. For example, the steel market is affected by supply - demand contradictions and production restrictions; the non - ferrous metal market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and economic trends; the energy and chemical market is affected by the Fed's interest rate decision and inventory conditions; the agricultural product market is affected by factors such as production capacity regulation and demand changes [5][8][15][20] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - finance - Overseas, the Fed cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and the dollar first fell and then rose. Domestically, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth rates were lower than previous values and market expectations. The uncertainty of external risks decreased, and the domestic easing expectation increased, leading to an overall rise in domestic risk appetite. The short - term macro - upward driving force has increased [2] - Equity index: Driven by sectors such as lithography machines, diversified finance, and consumer electronics, the domestic stock market continued to rise slightly. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [2][3][4] - Treasury bonds: Short - term, expected to be volatile, with a suggestion of cautious observation [2] Black Metals - **Steel**: The spot and futures prices of steel continued to be volatile. The real - world demand has not improved significantly, and the supply - demand contradiction has increased. However, due to the potential production restrictions in Tangshan, the short - term steel market is likely to continue the volatile and slightly stronger trend [5] - **Iron Ore**: The spot and futures prices of iron ore decreased slightly. The rigid replenishment demand continued to be released, but the room for further growth in iron - water production is limited. The supply is generally at a high level, and the price should be treated with an interval - oscillation mindset [5] - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: The spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. The supply continued to rise slightly, and the prices are expected to continue the interval - oscillation [6][7] - **Soda Ash**: The main contract of soda ash was volatile at a high level. There is a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the medium - to - long - term, a bearish mindset should be adopted, and short - term positive impacts from policies and news should be guarded against [7] - **Glass**: The main contract of glass was volatile at a high level. The supply was stable, and the demand was difficult to increase significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [7] Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: The recent rise in copper prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut expectation, tax policy on the recycled copper market, and the Indonesian copper mine accident. However, the upward space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [8] - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fell. Before the Fed's interest rate meeting, the market was cautious, and the profit - taking sentiment was strong. The rise in aluminum prices was mainly due to the Fed's interest rate cut and the rise in copper prices, but the fundamentals are weak [9][10] - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and the demand is weak. Considering the cost support, the short - term price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, but the upward space is limited [10] - **Tin**: The supply - side开工率 decreased significantly, but it is expected to recover. The demand is weak. The price is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation in the short - term, but the upward space is under pressure [11] - **Lithium Carbonate**: The current supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, and the fundamentals are improving marginally. The market is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation, and the upper pressure range should be noted [12][13] - **Industrial Silicon**: The industrial silicon is expected to be slightly stronger in oscillation due to the high - level oscillation of polysilicon and the strengthening of the cost - side coking coal [13] - **Polysilicon**: The polysilicon is expected to be in high - level oscillation in the short - term due to the price increase of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells in the spot market and the strong policy expectation [14] Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil price fell on Wednesday. The market digested the Fed's interest rate cut decision and US inventory data. The oil price will pay more attention to subsequent inventory conditions, and there is still support below in the short - term [15] - **Asphalt**: The asphalt price followed the oil price and remained volatile. The demand has weakened significantly, and the upward space is limited. The follow - up increase amplitude relative to the oil price should be noted [16] - **PX**: The PX price followed the energy and chemical sector and rebounded slightly. It will remain in an oscillating pattern and wait for the changes in PTA devices [16] - **PTA**: The PTA price continued to rise slightly. The downstream start - up rate has recovered, but the terminal start - up rate is still limited. The price upward space is limited, but there is also support below. It is expected to be oscillating without a trend in the short - term [17] - **Ethylene Glycol**: The ethylene glycol ended its continuous decline and rebounded slightly. The port inventory has accumulated slightly, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [17] - **Short Fibers**: The short - fiber price rebounded slightly. The follow - up upward space may be limited, and it is recommended to go short in the medium - term [17] - **Methanol**: The supply of inland devices is increasing, and the demand is weakening. The inventory is rising, but there is also support for the price. It is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term [18] - **PP**: The supply is still loose, and it is expected to be weakly oscillating in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the improvement of peak - season demand [18] - **LLDPE**: The supply has increased, and the demand has improved slightly. The supply - demand contradiction is not prominent. It is expected to be weakly oscillating [18] - **Urea**: The supply pressure is expected to increase. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to decline in the medium - to - long - term [19] Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean crop is in the early harvesting stage, and the crop rating has declined for three consecutive weeks. The CBOT soybean market maintains a cautious and optimistic attitude [20][21] - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply - demand surplus situation in the domestic market remains unchanged. However, the supply - demand situation may improve at the end of September and in October, and the price center of soybean meal is expected to rise [21] - **Oils**: The supply of soybean oil is sufficient, and the consumption support is limited. The high inventory of rapeseed oil is being continuously digested, and the market sentiment is strong [21] - **Palm Oil**: The domestic demand for palm oil is gradually weakening, and the inventory is increasing. The production in Malaysia has been affected by floods, but the subsequent increase in production and the decline in exports may limit the increase [22][23] - **Corn**: The new - season corn market is stable at the beginning. The futures expectation is slightly weak, but the risk of breaking the previous low is not high [23] - **Hogs**: The market supply of hogs is sufficient, and the price decline in some regions exceeds expectations. In the medium - term, the pig price may be under pressure from September to November, which may accelerate the market - based capacity reduction [23]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Equity Index**: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3][4] - **Treasury Bonds**: Short - term shock is on the weak side, and cautious observation is recommended [3] - **Black Metals**: Short - term shock, short - term cautious observation [3] - **Non - ferrous Metals**: Short - term shock is on the strong side, and short - term cautious long positions are recommended [3] - **Energy and Chemicals**: Short - term shock, cautious observation [3] - **Precious Metals**: Short - term high - level shock is on the strong side, and cautious long positions are recommended [3] 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas, the US may impose more tariffs on imported auto parts, and the dollar is weak due to expected Fed rate cuts. Domestically, economic data is lower than expected, but risk appetite has increased due to reduced external uncertainties and enhanced easing expectations. The market focuses on domestic stimulus policies and easing expectations [3]. - Different sectors in the commodity market have different trends. For example, steel may continue to rebound, while some energy - chemical products are in a state of shock [6][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - **Overseas**: The US may increase tariffs on auto parts, the dollar index is at a 10 - week low due to expected Fed rate cuts, and global risk appetite has increased [3]. - **Domestic**: In August, consumption, investment, and industrial added - value growth were lower than expected, but risk appetite increased due to policy measures and reduced external uncertainties. The market focuses on domestic policies, and the short - term macro - upward drive has strengthened [3]. - **Asset Recommendations**: Short - term long positions for equity indices, cautious observation for treasury bonds. For commodities, short - term long positions for non - ferrous metals and precious metals, and cautious observation for others [3]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Futures and spot prices continue to rebound. Demand is still weak, but supply is likely to shrink. The market is expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend [6]. - **Iron Ore**: Prices are strong, but the upward space is limited. Supply is high, and inventory has decreased slightly. It is recommended to view prices with an interval shock idea [6][7]. - **Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron**: Spot and futures prices have rebounded slightly. Supply is increasing, and the market is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term [7]. - **Soda Ash**: High - level shock. Supply is increasing, demand is weak, and it is recommended to take a bearish view in the medium - to - long term, while being vigilant about short - term policy impacts [8]. - **Glass**: High - level shock. Supply is stable, demand growth is limited, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term [8]. Non - ferrous and New Energy - **Copper**: Prices are strongly rising, driven by expected Fed rate cuts. It is short - term strong, but the upward space is limited [9]. - **Aluminum**: Prices are rising, but the fundamentals are weak. There is a technical pressure level at 21,300 yuan/ton [9]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: Supply is tight, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - **Tin**: Supply has decreased due to maintenance, but it is expected to recover. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be in a short - term shock - strong trend with limited upward space [10]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Prices are rising, with both supply and demand increasing. The market is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a shock - strong trend [11]. - **Polysilicon**: Prices are rising, and it is expected to be in a high - level shock and easy - to - rise - hard - to - fall state [12]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Prices are slightly rising due to supply pressure and expected Fed rate cuts [13]. - **Asphalt**: Prices are following the rise of crude oil, but demand is weakening, and the upward space is limited [14]. - **PX**: Prices are rebounding slightly, in a tight pattern, and are expected to be in a shock state [14]. - **PTA**: Prices are rebounding slightly, but the upward space is limited. There is also support below, and it is expected to be in a shock state [15]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: It is expected to be in a weak - shock state due to factors such as inventory accumulation and weak downstream demand [15]. - **Short - Fiber**: Prices are slightly rising, but the upward space is limited, and it can be short - sold in the medium term [15]. - **Methanol**: Supply is increasing, demand is weakening, and inventory is rising. It is in a short - term shock - weak state with limited downward space [16]. - **PP**: Supply is still loose, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state in the short term [16]. - **LLDPE**: Supply is increasing, demand improvement is limited, and it is expected to be in a shock - weak state [16]. - **Urea**: Supply pressure is expected to increase, demand is weak, and prices are expected to be low in the medium - to - long term [17]. Agricultural Products - **US Soybeans**: Prices are rising. The crop rating is declining, and the harvest rate is slightly lower than last year [18]. - **Soybean and Rapeseed Meal**: The short - term supply is excessive, but the price center may rise in late September and October [18]. - **Oils and Fats**: Soybean oil supply is sufficient, and consumption support is limited. Rapeseed oil inventory is decreasing, and the market is bullish. Palm oil demand is weakening, and production concerns exist [19]. - **Corn**: New - season prices are chaotic at the beginning, but the expected decline is limited. Futures are in a short - term correction, but the low - valuation support is strong [19][20]. - **Pigs**: The supply in September is increasing, and the price rebound expectation is reduced. There may be an over - seasonal pressure on prices from October to November [20].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various sectors including finance and commodities. In the financial sector, it assesses the impact of economic data such as US retail sales and policy - related events like the potential Fed rate cuts on different financial instruments. In the commodity sector, it examines supply - demand dynamics, price trends, and relevant news events affecting different commodities. Market volatility is expected to increase around key events such as the Fed rate meeting, and different investment strategies are recommended for each sector based on the analysis [11][15][24]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - US August retail sales increased by 0.6% month - on - month, exceeding expectations. Gold prices are rising due to factors like the Russia - Ukraine conflict and increased expectations of Fed rate cuts. However, there is a risk of short - term correction due to potential profit - taking by long - position holders. It is recommended to wait for the Fed rate meeting to end and be cautious of market risks [11]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - US tech companies like Microsoft plan to invest over $40 billion. The market has already priced in a 25 - basis - point rate cut, and there is an expectation of a 75 - basis - point rate cut by the end of the year. US stock index futures may face a short - term correction if the economic forecast and future rate - cut path fall short of expectations. It is recommended to be aware of the risk of short - term correction when the rate - cut expectation changes [13][15]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - The State Council Premier conducted research in Gansu and Qinghai, emphasizing innovation - driven development and green development. Nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. The A - share market had a V - shaped reversal. It is recommended that long - position holders of stock index futures consider reducing their exposure [17][18]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - Nine departments issued policies to expand service consumption. The central bank conducted a 2870 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net injection of 400 billion yuan. The necessity for the central bank to restart open - market treasury bond trading is not strong. It is recommended to remain cautious and not chase long positions [20][21][22]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On September 16, the price of steam coal in the northern port market was strong. The price is expected to be stable with a slight upward trend in the short term, but the upside is limited due to high downstream power plant inventories and negative growth in daily consumption [24]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Rio Tinto confirmed the first - shipment plan for the Simandou project in November. The iron ore price is expected to remain in a volatile range, with support at the bottom but difficult to break through the upper limit [25]. 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - The US soybean export inspection volume in the week ending September 11, 2025, exceeded expectations. The oil market continued its rebound. It is recommended to be cautious about chasing long positions in the short term and pay attention to relevant policies and production conditions [26]. 2.4 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The inventory of the passenger vehicle industry decreased in August. The steel price is in a volatile pattern. It is recommended to adopt a volatile - market mindset when dealing with steel prices [28][29][30]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - With the arrival of the new - season corn, the cost pressure on the corn - starch market will ease, and the industry's supply pressure may increase. It is recommended to be cautious about the price difference between rice flour and corn starch in the medium - to - long - term and short - term [32]. 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn) - The price of corn in North China continued to be weak. It is recommended to hold short positions in the medium - term and be cautious about short - term short - selling [33]. 2.7 Agricultural Products (Jujube) - The price of jujube futures decreased. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct short - term operations and pay attention to weather changes and pre - festival replenishment [34]. 2.8 Non - ferrous Metals (Copper) - Canada set conditions for mining company mergers. Anglo American and Codelco plan to jointly mine copper. Kazakhstan's copper production increased in January - August. It is recommended to be short - term cautious and observe changes in Fed rate - cut expectations and fundamentals [36][37][38]. 2.9 Non - ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - Longpan Technology signed a procurement agreement with CATL. The supply and demand of lithium carbonate are in a complex situation. It is recommended to switch to a bearish mindset, be cautious about short - term short - selling, and pay attention to short - selling opportunities on rebounds [39][40]. 2.10 Non - ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead inventory is at a seasonal high, and the 0 - 3 spread is deepening. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term and consider buying on dips for mid - term long positions [41]. 2.11 Non - ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc inventory is at a historical low, and the 0 - 3 spread is in a high - level shock. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, pay attention to mid - term positive - spread opportunities, and maintain a positive - spread mindset for internal - external trading [42]. 2.12 Non - ferrous Metals (Nickel) - The LME nickel inventory reached a four - year high. It is recommended to pay attention to opportunities to buy on dips [44]. 2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - The US API crude oil inventory decreased. The supply stability of Russia is a concern. It is recommended to pay attention to geopolitical risks [45]. 2.14 Energy and Chemicals (Carbon Emissions) - The price of carbon emissions trading decreased. It is recommended to expect further price decline in the short term [49]. 2.15 Energy and Chemicals (PX) - The PX price was slightly lower. It is recommended to try positive - spread trading between November and January contracts on dips [51]. 2.16 Energy and Chemicals (PTA) - The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The PTA price is expected to be in a weak - shock pattern in the short term [54]. 2.17 Energy and Chemicals (Bottle Chips) - The export quotes of bottle - chip factories were mostly stable. The demand for bottle chips is transitioning to the off - season, and it is difficult to improve processing fees [56]. 2.18 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - China's fertilizer import and export data showed different trends in August. The urea price may stabilize in the short term but face downward risks in the medium term [58]. 2.19 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. It is expected that the spot price will turn down, but the downward space is limited [60]. 2.20 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - Some styrene plants in East China had maintenance. The short - term port inventory pressure of styrene decreased, and the contract price is in a shock pattern. It is recommended to pay attention to relevant factors [62]. 2.21 Energy and Chemicals (Pulp) - The import pulp spot market had mixed price movements. It is expected that the pulp market will be in a weak - shock pattern [65]. 2.22 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - The PVC powder market price increased, but the rebound height is expected to be limited due to weak fundamentals [68]. 2.23 Energy and Chemicals (Soda Ash) - The soda - ash price in South China was stable. It is recommended to short on rallies and pay attention to supply - side disturbances [69]. 2.24 Energy and Chemicals (Float Glass) - The float - glass price in Hubei was stable. It is recommended to pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity of going long on the 2601 glass contract and short on the 2601 soda - ash contract [70]. 2.25 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rates) - The US plans to levy port fees on Chinese ships, but major shipping companies will not charge additional fees. The spot container freight rate is falling. It is recommended to hold short positions in the October contract [71].

Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided in the report regarding the industry investment rating. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively analyzes various sectors in the financial and commodity futures markets, including financial derivatives (such as stock index futures and treasury bond futures), precious metals, and multiple commodity futures (like non - ferrous metals, black metals, and agricultural products). It assesses market conditions, influencing factors, and provides corresponding investment suggestions for each sector. For example, in the stock index futures market, the technology sector has regained strength, and there is sector rotation of funds; in the precious metals market, the expectation of monetary easing is rising before the Fed's decision, driving up the prices of gold and silver; in the commodity futures market, different metals and agricultural products have different supply - demand situations and price trends [2][8][10]. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives Financial Futures - **Stock Index Futures**: On Tuesday, the major indices opened higher and then retreated. The stock market showed a pattern of sector rotation. The technology sector was strong, and the financial sector adjusted. The four major stock index futures contracts had mixed performance. The main contracts IF2509 and IH2509 fell, while IC2509 and IM2509 rose. The market is influenced by domestic and overseas news, such as Sino - US economic and trade talks and the appointment of a new Fed governor. The current basis of the main contracts has been rapidly repaired. It is recommended to consider a double - buy strategy if the volatility decreases [2][3][4]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: Treasury bond futures mostly rose. The yield of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally declined. The central bank increased liquidity injection, and the money market was in a state of convergence. Although the money market was tight during the tax period, the bond market showed a recovery due to the increased allocation value and the expectation of the central bank restarting bond purchases. It is recommended that investors wait and see in the short term and pay attention to the money market and the central bank's operations [5][6]. Precious Metals - **Gold and Silver**: Before the Fed's decision, the expectation of monetary easing continued to rise, and the US dollar index fell to a new low for the year. Gold prices reached a new high and then retreated, while silver prices fell due to the correction in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points, and it is recommended to wait and see and then buy on dips. For silver, it is recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options on rallies [7][8][9]. Commodity Futures Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: The copper market is focused on the FOMC meeting. The spot price has increased, but the high price has suppressed downstream demand. The supply of copper concentrate is tight, and the output of refined copper is expected to decline in September. The inventory shows a pattern of de - stocking in LME and stocking in the domestic market. It is expected that the copper price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 80,000 - 82,000 yuan/ton [10][12][13]. - **Alumina**: The spot price has declined, and the supply is increasing. Although the futures price has rebounded, the market is still in a situation of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. It is expected that the main contract will oscillate between 2900 - 3200 yuan/ton in the short term, and it is advisable to consider shorting on rallies in the medium term [13][15][16]. - **Aluminum**: The spot price is stable. The output of electrolytic aluminum is increasing, and the downstream demand is in the process of recovery. The inventory shows a pattern of repeated changes. It is expected that the aluminum price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [17][18][19]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The spot price is stable. The output of recycled aluminum alloy is expected to increase in September. The demand is gradually recovering. The inventory is in the process of accumulation. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 20,200 - 20,800 yuan/ton [21][22]. - **Zinc**: The zinc price shows a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic. The supply is expected to be loose, and the demand is in the process of recovery. The domestic inventory is accumulating, while the LME inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the zinc price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [25][26]. - **Tin**: The supply of tin is tight, and the price is at a high level. The spot price is high, and the trading is light. The import of tin ore has decreased, and the demand has not improved significantly. It is expected that the tin price will be range - bound at a high level, and the main contract is expected to trade between 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [26][27][28]. - **Nickel**: The macro - environment is improving, and the price is strongly range - bound. The output of refined nickel is at a high level, and the demand is stable. The overseas inventory is high, and the domestic inventory is increasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 120,000 - 125,000 yuan/ton [29][30][32]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price is range - bound and slightly weak. The cost is supported, but the demand has not fully recovered. The inventory is decreasing slowly. It is expected that the price will be range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 12,800 - 13,400 yuan/ton [33][34][35]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The macro - environment is positive, and the price is strongly range - bound. The supply is increasing, and the demand is optimistic. The inventory is decreasing. It is expected that the price will be strongly range - bound in the short term, and the main contract is expected to trade between 70,000 - 75,000 yuan/ton [37][38][39]. Black Metals - **Steel**: The price of steel rose due to the expected contraction in the coal supply. The spot price of rebar increased more than that of hot - rolled coil, and the spread between them narrowed. The supply of steel is at a high level, and the demand is expected to recover seasonally. The inventory is expected to rise. It is recommended to try short - term long positions, with the upper resistance level of rebar at 3350 yuan and that of hot - rolled coil at 3500 yuan [40][42][43]. - **Iron Ore**: The price of iron ore is strongly range - bound. The global shipment of iron ore has increased, and the arrival volume at 45 ports has decreased. The demand for iron ore is supported by the increase in steel production and the need for replenishment. The inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long iron ore and short hot - rolled coil [44][45][46]. - **Coking Coal**: The price of coking coal is expected to rebound. The supply of coking coal is gradually recovering, and the demand is increasing due to the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [47][48][49]. - **Coke**: The price of coke is expected to rebound. The second - round price cut of coke has been implemented, and the third - round cut is difficult. The supply of coke is increasing, and the demand is supported by the increase in steel production. The inventory is at a medium level. It is recommended to go long on the 2601 contract on dips and consider the strategy of long coking coal and short coke [51][55][56]. Agricultural Products - **Meal**: The price of soybean meal has stabilized. The US soybean export inspection volume has increased, and the Brazilian new soybean planting has started. The domestic soybean meal inventory is at a high level, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the 01 contract will trade between 3000 - 3100 yuan/ton [57][58][59]. - **Live Pigs**: The price of live pigs is oscillating weakly. The supply of live pigs is increasing, and the demand is slowly recovering. The profit of pig farming has decreased. It is expected that the price will continue to bottom - out [60][61]. - **Corn**: The price of corn is under pressure. The new - season corn in the Northeast is slow to be listed, and the supply in the North China region has increased. The demand is mainly for replenishment. It is expected that the price will be range - bound and weak in the short and medium terms [62][63]. - **Sugar**: The price of raw sugar has rebounded from an oversold level, and the domestic sugar price is oscillating. The supply of raw sugar is in surplus, and the domestic sugar inventory is at a high level. It is recommended to short on rallies [64].