Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The market has shown a significant dulling in its reaction to negative news, with trading volume and sentiment remaining strong. The "asset shortage" and "national team" support have increased the willingness to allocate to equity assets, while "anti - involution" and real estate policy expectations have boosted market sentiment. However, due to the lack of substantial positive factors at home and abroad and the reduced discount advantage of stock index futures, it is advisable to be cautious about chasing the rise in the short term [7]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Financial Data - **Interest Rates**: DR001 closed at 1.42%, up 8.13bp; DR007 at 1.54%, up 6.42bp; GC001 at 1.49%, up 14.00bp; GC007 at 1.56%, up 5.50bp; SHBOR 3M at 1.56%, up 0.40bp; LPR 5 - year at 3.50%, unchanged; 1 - year treasury at 1.37%, unchanged; 5 - year treasury at 1.52%, up 0.25bp; 10 - year treasury at 1.67%, unchanged; 10 - year US treasury at 4.43%, up 8.00bp [3]. - **Central Bank Operations**: The central bank conducted 2262 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations with an operating rate of 1.40% yesterday. With 1065 billion yuan of reverse repurchases maturing, the net daily injection was 1197 billion yuan. This week, 4257 billion yuan of reverse repurchases will mature, and 1000 billion yuan of MLF will mature on July 15 [3][4]. 3.2 Stock Index Futures and Spot Market - **Stock Index Futures**: IF volume was 80048, down 51.0; IF open interest was 263468, down 6.8; IH volume was 41336, down 54.4; IH open interest was down 13.2; IC volume was 66406, down 46.3; IC open interest was 227301, down 6.1; IM volume was 132782, down 50.4; IM open interest was 326601, down 8.0. The premium and discount rates of IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts in different periods are also provided [5][8]. - **Stock Index Spot**: The CSI 300 rose 0.07% to 4017.7; the SSE 50 rose 0.04% to 2757.8; the CSI 500 fell 0.1% to 6020.9; the CSI 1000 rose 0.02% to 6462.3. The trading volume of the two markets was 14588 billion yuan, a decrease of 2534 billion yuan from last Friday. Industry sectors were mostly up, with precious metals, energy metals, etc. leading the gains, and diversified finance, gaming, etc. leading the losses [6]. 3.3 Export Data - China's exports in June increased by 5.8% year - on - year in US dollars, up from 4.8% in the previous period. During the Sino - US "reciprocal tariff" suspension period in June, Sino - US foreign trade recovered significantly, with exports to the US improving by 32.44% month - on - month to 381.7 billion US dollars, and the proportion in total exports rising from 9.12% in May to 11.74%. Exports to Africa also had a good performance. However, with the implementation of reciprocal tariff measures in August, Sino - US trade may face challenges [6].

Core Viewpoint - The market shows mixed performance with the Shanghai Composite Index declining while the ChiNext Index rises, indicating a divergence in sector performance and investor sentiment [1][2]. Market Performance - As of the midday close, the Shanghai Composite Index is at 3486.88 points, down 0.93%, the Shenzhen Component Index at 10657.22 points, down 0.26%, and the ChiNext Index at 2211.03 points, up 0.64% [1][2]. - Overall, more than 4600 stocks in the market are experiencing declines, reflecting a bearish sentiment [2]. Sector Performance - The CPO sector is performing strongly, with active performance in liquid-cooled servers and Nvidia-related concepts, while coal mining, energy metals, and the power sector are among the worst performers [4]. Capital Flow - Main capital flows show a net inflow into sectors such as telecommunications, electronics, and computers, while public utilities, pharmaceuticals, and food and beverage sectors are seeing net outflows [6]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows include Xinyi Technology (26.96 billion), Leo Group (17.58 billion), and Zhongji Xuchuang (17.34 billion) [7]. - Conversely, stocks facing substantial net outflows include Kweichow Moutai (10.42 billion), Baosteel (7.35 billion), and Changshan Pharmaceutical (6.85 billion) [8]. Institutional Insights - Analysts from Zhongtai Securities suggest that the market's performance this week is better than expected, with active funds likely to return as mid-year reports are released. They recommend identifying sectors where institutional and active funds may converge [10]. - The investment director from Qianhai Boben Fund indicates that while the market is adjusting, the overall adjustment space is limited, with significant support around the 10 and 20-day moving averages. They advise buying on dips, focusing on sectors that are likely to rotate and rebound [10].

上证指数日内跌超1%，深证成指跌0.13%，创业板指涨0.89%，煤炭开采加工、能源金属、电力、房地 产等板块跌幅居前。 ...

Group 1 - The A-share market has recently experienced a "anti-involution" theme rally, with sectors such as steel, polysilicon, and glass seeing significant growth. The "anti-involution" theme is expected to become one of the main investment lines in the near future as it spreads across various industries [1] - Securities firms have shown considerable interest in the "anti-involution" theme, with dozens of firms publishing over a hundred reports and articles related to it since July. The most covered industries include building materials, steel, photovoltaics, and coal [1] - Analysts suggest that the implementation of "anti-involution" policies is likely to accelerate the exit of outdated production capacity, improving the net asset return rates in related industries, which would be a significant benefit for the stock market [1] Group 2 - "Expectation management" is the primary method of the current "anti-involution" policy. Traditional cyclical industries like coal and steel have largely cleared their outdated production capacity, and the concentration of industries has significantly increased [2] - The impact of the "anti-involution" policy may vary by industry. Some sectors, such as photovoltaics and lithium batteries, still have growth potential, making direct capacity clearance less likely, while traditional industries with higher capacity utilization and low product prices may see more significant effects on profitability [2] - A report from Huachuang Securities identified potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" measures, with coal mining, coke, and ordinary steel being the most frequently mentioned. Other industries like passenger vehicles and wind power equipment were also highlighted as potential beneficiaries [2]

Market Overview - A-shares showed mixed performance on July 14, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising by 0.27% to close at 3519.65 points, while the Shenzhen Component Index fell by 0.11% to 10684.52 points, and the ChiNext Index decreased by 0.45% to 2197.07 points [1] - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 145.88 billion yuan, a decrease of 25.34 billion yuan compared to the previous Friday [1] - Among industry sectors, precious metals, energy metals, electric machinery, plastic products, electric power, paper printing, and power grid equipment saw the highest gains, while diversified finance, gaming, and cultural media sectors experienced the largest declines [1] Lithium Industry - The lithium mining sector showed strong performance on July 14, with institutions noting that industries like polysilicon and lithium carbonate are facing severe internal competition, leading to pressure on both supply and demand [1] - Short-term policies aimed at limiting inefficient capacity expansion may lead to temporary supply tightness, potentially driving prices up, but demand from sectors like new energy vehicles may slow down, limiting price increases [1] Robotics Sector - Robotics stocks collectively surged due to the upcoming 2025 World Artificial Intelligence Conference and the High-Level Meeting on Global Governance of Artificial Intelligence scheduled for July 26-28 in Shanghai, which is expected to positively impact the sector [1] - Robotics and artificial intelligence are identified as one of the more certain investment themes for the year, with potential opportunities in the future [1] Company Specifics - Nanxin Pharmaceutical - Nanxin Pharmaceutical's stock rose by 18.16%, leading the gains among Hunan stocks, with 83 out of 147 stocks in the region showing an increase [2] - The company specializes in the research, production, and sales of pharmaceutical products, primarily focusing on chemical drug formulations for various medical fields [2] - The company's Q1 2025 report indicated a net profit of -8.03 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of -143.66% [2] Company Updates - Nanxin Pharmaceutical - Recent updates from Nanxin Pharmaceutical revealed a significant reduction in production deviation occurrences for 2024 compared to 2023, with a 100% pass rate in external inspections [3] - The company is progressing with its Phase II clinical trial for its innovative drug, Mefenamic Acid, which aims to delay kidney fibrosis and improve kidney function in diabetic nephropathy treatment [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the non-ferrous metals industry [2] Core Views - Precious metals are expected to continue their upward trend, with gold prices rising by 0.53% and silver prices by 4.07% in the week of July 7-11, 2025. The gold-silver ratio has reached a maximum of over 100 this year, indicating potential for further increases in silver prices as gold prices stabilize [4] - Industrial metal prices are on the rise, with fluctuations in copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel prices noted. The report highlights a significant discrepancy between Indonesia's nickel production quotas and actual output due to seasonal weather impacts [4] - Rare earth prices, particularly praseodymium-neodymium oxides, have increased, driven by a recovery in manufacturing demand. Tungsten prices are also rising, indicating a steady growth in demand for tungsten in production tools [4] - Energy metals show mixed trends, with lithium prices increasing while cobalt and nickel prices are declining. The report emphasizes the need to monitor future demand growth for energy metals [4] - The report recommends investing in the non-ferrous metals sector, particularly in precious metals, as the Federal Reserve enters a rate-cutting cycle, and domestic monetary policies are expected to support growth [4] Summary by Sections 1. Industry Data Review 1.1 Precious Metals - Gold prices have shown a consistent upward trend, with the gold-silver ratio indicating potential for silver price increases [4][5] 1.2 Industrial Metals - The report provides a detailed overview of price changes for various industrial metals, noting specific percentage changes for copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, tin, and nickel [27] 1.3 Minor Metals - Prices for rare earth metals and tungsten have increased, reflecting a recovery in manufacturing and steady demand growth [28][31] 1.4 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are rising, while cobalt and nickel prices are declining, highlighting the need for ongoing monitoring of energy metal demand [34] 2. Market Data - The report notes that the non-ferrous metals sector has seen a 1.02% increase, with specific sectors like metal new materials and precious metals showing significant gains [35] 3. Important Events Review - The report highlights significant developments in the industry, including the successful launch of a new aluminum electrolysis production line and the planned expansion of an electrolytic aluminum project [41][42]

A股能源金属板块盘初拉升，永杉锂业封板涨停，融捷股份涨超7%，威领股份涨超6%，盛新锂能、天 齐锂业等跟涨。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the industry, highlighting several companies as key investment opportunities [5][6]. Core Views - The report emphasizes the impact of the U.S. increasing copper import tariffs, which is expected to create a divergence in copper prices between COMEX and LME, while domestic policies are expected to support industrial metal prices [2][4]. - The report expresses optimism regarding the recovery of lithium prices due to improved demand expectations and the ongoing shortage of cobalt, which is anticipated to drive cobalt prices higher [3]. - The report notes the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs but remains bullish on gold prices in the long term, driven by central bank purchases and weakening U.S. dollar credit [4]. Summary by Sections Industrial Metals - The U.S. plans to raise copper import tariffs to 50%, leading to a significant increase in COMEX copper prices while negatively impacting LME and domestic copper prices [2]. - Domestic copper smelting enterprises have seen an increase in operating rates, driven by the tariff announcement, which has stimulated downstream purchasing [2]. - Aluminum production capacity has slightly decreased, and domestic aluminum social inventory has shifted from accumulation to reduction, supporting aluminum prices [2][20]. Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to recover due to improved production expectations in the new energy sector, despite ongoing supply pressures [3]. - Cobalt prices are projected to rise due to a shortage of raw materials, exacerbated by delays in policies from the Democratic Republic of Congo [3]. - Nickel prices are expected to stabilize in the short term, with some nickel salt manufacturers planning to reduce or halt production due to weak demand [3]. Precious Metals - The uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs continues, but silver prices have reached new highs, and gold prices are expected to trend upward in the long term [4]. - The report highlights several companies in the precious metals sector as key investment opportunities, including Shandong Gold and Zijin Mining [4][5]. Company Profit Forecasts and Valuations - The report provides detailed earnings per share (EPS) forecasts and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for various companies, all rated as "Recommended" for investment [5]. - Key companies highlighted include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and China Nonferrous Mining, with projected EPS growth and favorable PE ratios [5].

Group 1 - The "anti-involution" policy has become a hot topic in the stock and commodity markets, with various industries responding and institutions releasing related research reports [1] - Tianfeng Securities suggests that the "anti-involution" trend may develop in three phases: initial expectations catalyzed by policy, followed by rising prices of resource products, and finally, a prolonged period of high prices for these resources [1] - CITIC Securities identifies three key differences between the current "anti-involution" and the supply-side reform of 2015-2016, including broader industry coverage, better operating conditions for upstream enterprises, and a higher proportion of private enterprises in emerging industries [1] Group 2 - Zhejiang Merchants Fund focuses on two major industrial issues: structural contradictions in capacity and disruptions to fair competition, particularly in the new energy vehicle and photovoltaic sectors, where prices have dropped significantly [2] - Dongwu Securities highlights that the "anti-involution" policy will have a more pronounced effect on correcting vicious competition and benefiting emerging industries, particularly in sectors with high state-owned enterprise representation [2] - Specific sectors to watch include the photovoltaic industry chain, traditional industries facing overcapacity like steel and cement, and emerging non-manufacturing sectors such as e-commerce [2] Group 3 - Huachuang Securities identifies potential beneficiary industries of the "anti-involution" policy based on factors like state-owned enterprise representation, industry concentration, price elasticity, taxation, and employment [3] - Industries likely to benefit include coal mining, coke, ordinary steel, energy metals, glass fiber, steel raw materials, precious metals, and the hospitality sector [3]

Group 1 - The A-share market for energy metals is active, with Shengxin Lithium Energy rising over 3%, and other stocks like Tibet Mining, Tianhua New Energy, and Rongjie Co. also experiencing gains [1] - In the first half of this year, significant breakthroughs were made in mineral exploration in China, with 38 new mineral sites discovered [1] - Hunan Chenzhou has reported the discovery of 490 million tons of lithium ore [1]