Market Review - The international environment has become increasingly complex, with gold leading the rise among major asset classes. In the first half of 2025, uncertainties in U.S. policies, global trade, and geopolitical factors have intensified, particularly due to the "America First" policies of the Trump administration, which have significantly disrupted global capital markets. As a result, global asset volatility has increased, with gold leading gains, a weakening dollar, differentiated equity performance, and fluctuations in the bond market [2][10][9]. U.S. Market - The Trump administration's policies are expected to lead to a soft landing for the economy. The labor market is gradually cooling, with limited upward movement in the unemployment rate. Consumer spending is being affected by layoffs, tariffs, and demand exhaustion, but income growth is providing some support. Corporate investment sentiment is weakening, and profit growth is slowing, but the extent is manageable [2][30][36]. - Inflation is facing downward pressure, and the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts may be delayed. Tariffs are likely to push prices up, particularly in the third quarter. The federal budget expansion will continue, and debt pressure is unlikely to ease significantly [2][30][36]. Dollar Cycle - A weak dollar cycle is expected to begin, leading to a rebalancing of global asset allocation. The dollar is likely to enter a long-term bear market due to interest rate differentials, inflation differentials, and pressures from international capital allocation. Historical data suggests that a new weak dollar cycle would likely lead to higher commodity prices and lower U.S. Treasury yields, with U.S. stocks underperforming emerging market equities [2][30][36]. - In the second half of the year, the dollar may still experience fluctuations due to the soft landing of the U.S. economy, sticky inflation, and delayed interest rate cuts. Geopolitical and trading factors may also drive short-term rebounds in the dollar [2][30][36]. Hong Kong Stock Market - The focus is on profit structure recovery, with expectations for upward potential. The domestic economy is expected to stabilize under supportive policies, leading to continued profit recovery in certain sectors. The liquidity environment is favorable, with foreign capital remaining optimistic about China's economic and policy certainty. The anticipated inflow of southbound capital and the active primary market will create investment opportunities in the secondary market [2][30][36]. - The report suggests a cautious outlook for Hong Kong stocks in Q3, with potential for profit and valuation recovery in Q4 as domestic policy effects become evident and U.S. Treasury yields marginally decline. Key investment themes include technology innovation sectors, quality assets in domestic consumption supported by policy, and stable dividend-paying assets [2][30][36].

Core Viewpoint - Iridium, despite its higher value than gold, cannot replace gold's position due to its scarcity, processing challenges, and lower chemical stability [1][3]. Group 1: Scarcity of Iridium - Iridium is extremely rare on Earth, making its extraction difficult and resource-intensive [5]. - The production of iridium is minimal compared to gold, which has abundant reserves and established mining techniques [6]. - The low supply of iridium cannot meet large-scale market demands for various applications, unlike gold [6]. Group 2: Processing Challenges - Iridium's hardness presents significant challenges in processing, requiring advanced technology and higher energy consumption [8]. - Unlike gold, which is highly malleable and can be easily shaped into intricate designs, iridium's processing leads to increased costs and potential quality issues [8]. - The limitations in iridium's processing capabilities restrict its versatility in manufacturing compared to gold [8]. Group 3: Chemical Stability - Gold exhibits exceptional chemical stability, remaining unreactive in various harsh environments, which contributes to its long-term value [10]. - While iridium has some chemical stability, it can still react under specific conditions, affecting its reliability and lifespan [10]. - Gold's superior chemical properties make it more suitable for diverse applications, reinforcing its dominant position [10].

这场由美债引发的风暴，正在全球市场掀起一场腥风血雨。 中国不再试探，果断抽走一张关键筹码，让美国措手不及。 金融圈震动，军工体系也感受到了冲击。 原本想趁机抢回主动权的盟友，一着不慎，反而打乱了自己的节奏。 6月的华尔街，注定不平静。 10年期美债收益率突然暴涨，一周之内飙高50个 基点，直接冲到4.49%，创下2003年以来最大单周涨幅。 别看这只是一个数字变化，对投资市场来说，这意味着大规模的抛售正在发生。 美债价格雪崩，全球资金连夜逃离。 当美元再也撑不起信心，美债还撑得起全球秩序吗？ 日本逆势增持了一些，英国也跳出来当接盘侠。 一口气加仓284亿美元，一举超过中国，成了美债第二大持有国。 但最让市场紧张的，是中国与加拿大的行动。 中国连续两个月减持美债，4月的持仓降到7570亿美元，创下16年来的新低。 相比十年前巅峰时期1.3万亿美元的持仓，如今已经砍去四成多。 与此同时，加拿大更是干脆，直接一次性甩卖578亿美元，几乎是拔腿就跑。 这一波大规模抛售，与特朗普的一纸关税新政直接挂钩。 4月10日，美国政府宣布对中国产品加征高达125%的关税。 不仅中国，连欧洲盟友也吃了一记闷棍。 特朗普口口声声说是 ...

Group 1 - Kede CNC, Shenyang Aircraft Industry Group, and AVIC Shenfei have signed a cooperation agreement to establish China's first pilot test base for large aircraft structural components based on domestically produced high-end five-axis CNC equipment, focusing on precision processing of complex structural parts for C919 and C929 aircraft [1] - A distributed photovoltaic demonstration project using perovskite technology has been launched in Qingdao, Shandong, marking the province's first multi-technology application and multi-scenario integration project, with a direct current installed capacity of 115 kWp [2] - Eleven automotive and technology companies, including Volkswagen, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz, have signed a memorandum of understanding to jointly develop and share an advanced automotive software platform to counter the growing dominance of the U.S. in technology [3] Group 2 - VoltAero showcased the Cassio 330 production model electric hybrid aircraft at the Paris Air Show, designed for low-cost operations with a 440 horsepower (330 kW) hybrid propulsion system, capable of operating on runways shorter than 1,800 feet (approximately 548.64 meters) [4]

Core Points - The Trump administration is shifting from ambitious comprehensive trade agreements to narrower, phased agreements to avoid the reimplementation of tariffs by July 9 [1][2] - The government aims to reach "principled agreements" on a few trade disputes, allowing countries that agree to avoid harsher tariffs while maintaining existing 10% tariffs during ongoing negotiations [1][3] - The dual-track strategy of threatening new tariffs while remaining open to agreements highlights the complexities of negotiations with the Trump administration [2][3] Trade Negotiations - The U.S. is currently negotiating with key countries to finalize limited agreements before the July 9 deadline, which Trump has indicated will see the reimposition of tariffs if no agreements are reached [1][3] - The U.S. Commerce Department has initiated national security investigations under Section 232 for various goods, including copper, lumber, and aerospace components, which adds uncertainty to ongoing trade discussions [2][3] - Countries involved in serious trade negotiations with the U.S. are seeking exemptions from existing tariffs, including a 25% tariff on automobiles and a 50% tariff on steel and aluminum [2] Legal and Regulatory Context - Recent court rulings have declared Trump's use of emergency powers to impose tariffs as illegal, injecting further uncertainty into trade negotiations [4] - The administration has appealed these rulings, but the outcome may affect the dynamics of ongoing and future trade discussions [4]

Core Viewpoint - The aerospace industry is experiencing significant growth driven by advancements in core technologies, increased domestic production capabilities, and a growing demand for maintenance and commercial aviation engines [2][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of July 1, 2025, the CN5082 aerospace industry index showed mixed performance among its constituent stocks, with China Ship Emergency leading with a 20.04% increase [1]. - The Aerospace ETF (159227) reached a new high of 3.22 billion yuan, reflecting an 11.08% increase over the past week [1]. Group 2: Leadership Changes - Zhang Yujin has been appointed as the chairman and party secretary of the Aviation Industry Corporation of China, indicating a new leadership direction that may lead to renewed growth in the aerospace sector [1]. Group 3: Technological Advancements - The aerospace engine industry has made significant progress over the past five years, achieving independence from imported engines for military applications and advancing domestic commercial engine development [2]. - Breakthroughs in core technologies related to engine materials, design, and manufacturing processes have been realized, enhancing the industry's capabilities [2]. Group 4: Growth Opportunities - The maintenance sector for aerospace engines is poised for explosive growth as domestic engines are increasingly deployed, with maintenance costs accounting for up to 50% of the total lifecycle cost [3]. - The C919 passenger aircraft has surpassed 1,000 total orders, marking a significant milestone for domestic commercial aviation and indicating a shift towards self-sufficiency in the supply chain [3]. - The gas turbine market is experiencing rapid growth due to global infrastructure recovery and increased demand for AI computing power, with domestic products gradually replacing imports [3]. Group 5: Index Composition - As of June 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the CN5082 aerospace industry index accounted for 49.42% of the index, highlighting the concentration of key players in the market [4].

Group 1 - The report presents the "Shenwan Hongyuan Top Ten Gold Stocks" as a monthly updated selection reflecting market trends and investment strategies [1][10] - The previous gold stock combination achieved a return of 10.81% from June 1 to June 30, 2025, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index by 11.85 and 12.25 percentage points respectively [4][5] - Since the first release on March 28, 2017, the gold stock combination has cumulatively increased by 302.29%, with the A-share combination rising by 239.35% [5][4] Group 2 - The current strategy maintains a judgment of a high central oscillation market, with expectations for a bull market core period emerging in 2026-27 [13] - The report suggests focusing on growth sectors such as national defense, innovative pharmaceuticals, and robotics, while strategically favoring Hong Kong stocks as a leading market in a potential bull market [13] - The top recommended stocks include "Iron Triangle" stocks: Plater, Haier Smart Home, and China Life (Hong Kong), along with other selected stocks like Yiwei Lithium Energy and Alibaba-W (Hong Kong) [16][17] Group 3 - The report highlights the performance and rationale for each of the top ten gold stocks, emphasizing their growth potential and market positioning [19][21] - For instance, Yiwei Lithium Energy is expected to benefit from the electric heavy truck market, while Haier Smart Home is positioned to leverage high-end market trends and digital upgrades [17][19] - The report also provides valuation and profit forecasts for these stocks, indicating expected growth rates and earnings per share (EPS) for the coming years [21][22]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the dynamic adjustment of the unicorn landscape in Nansha, with 24 companies listed in the 2025 Global Unicorn List, maintaining the same number as last year [1] - Among the new unicorns, Xinyu Energy is recognized as the largest domestic manufacturer and developer of silicon carbide chips for automotive and industrial control applications, marking a significant achievement in the industry [1] - The article emphasizes the performance differentiation among existing companies, reflecting the varying heat and development pace across different sectors in the current market environment [2] Group 2 - Juwang Technology, focused on extreme fast charging battery technology, has seen its market value estimated at 11 billion RMB, but its ranking has dropped by 48 places [2] - Zhongke Aerospace, the first commercial aerospace unicorn in Guangdong, has shown strong performance with a market value of 11 billion RMB, rising 39 places in ranking [2] - The exit of Xiaoma Zhixing from the list, as it prepares for its NASDAQ debut, signifies a successful transition to the capital market, while new players are rapidly emerging to fill the gaps [3] Group 3 - Nansha is building an innovative ecosystem that integrates source innovation, technology breakthroughs, industrial incubation, enterprise cultivation, and technology finance, successfully nurturing a batch of competitive unicorns in strategic emerging fields [3] - The focus on technological innovation is expected to drive the development of new productive forces and inject strong momentum into the region's high-quality development [3]

Core Insights - Durable goods orders increased by 16.5%, significantly surpassing the forecast of 8.5% and reversing a previous decline of 6.5% in April [1][3] - The increase was primarily driven by transportation equipment, with orders excluding transportation rising by 0.5%, exceeding expectations for flat orders [2][3] - Durable goods serve as a leading economic indicator, reflecting business investment willingness and consumer confidence [3] Company Insights - **Honeywell International (HON)**: The company plans a tax-free spin-off of its aerospace business, creating two entities: Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Automation, focusing on AI and robotics. The spin-off is expected to unlock shareholder value, although the stock appears overvalued currently [5][6][7] - **Deere & Company (DE)**: The stock has risen over 19% in 2025 despite expectations of lower demand in North America due to softer commodity prices. The company is closely tied to agricultural capital spending, and favorable trade announcements could boost future capital expenditures [8][9][10] - **Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)**: While not a traditional durable goods company, Microsoft's significant investment in AI data centers is driving demand for durable goods like hardware and cooling systems. The company is sensitive to economic trends, and its strong market position allows it to command a premium [12][13][14]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news highlights that 34 stocks were listed on the institutional trading leaderboard, with 25 stocks experiencing net buying and 9 stocks facing net selling [1] - The top three stocks with the highest net buying by institutions were Chengfei Integration (¥250 million), Xiongdi Technology (¥138 million), and Chenxi Aviation (¥115 million) [1][2] - Chengfei Integration is actively expanding into markets such as aviation engines and aerospace, while also focusing on civil aviation and low-altitude economy developments, seeking new business opportunities [3] Group 2 - The military industry is expected to benefit from increasing global military trade demand due to geopolitical changes, with China's military products gaining recognition after recent conflicts [3] - The digitalization and capitalization of Real World Assets (RWA) is becoming a significant direction for the integration of the digital economy and the real economy, with various countries initiating RWA-related projects [3]