Group 1 - A mining company has suspended operations due to the collapse of its transportation infrastructure at the port, with repairs expected to take four to five months [1] - The incident has raised concerns about supply tightness in the iron ore market, leading to speculation about potential price increases [1]

更新时间：2025年05月14日08时11分 报告导读： 中美贸易谈判结果远超市场预期，极大的提振了市场信心，螺纹从低位反弹。 上周我的钢铁公布的数据显示，产量有所回落，厂库大量增加，社库 继续回落，总库存回升，表观需求大幅下降。库存的回升和表观需求的下降打压多头情绪 。降准降息等重磅举措已经落地，黑色商品冲高后回落， 政策面利多基本兑现。房地产方面，核心城市有所企稳，低线城市房地产市场仍在筑底过程中 。限产传闻对市场提振作用有限，但生产端认为今年 大概率会有限产政策出台。整体来看，市场由强现实向弱现实转变，短线受中美大幅互减关税影响而得到提振 ，但弱预期没有变化。从技术上看， 短线大幅反弹，下行趋势后进入低位震荡。 操作建议： 观望。耐心等待利空因素计价完毕之后，充分调整后可尝试逢低做多，谨慎追涨，以防短线利多兑现； | 表1：螺纹、热卷相关数据 | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 数据类别 | 指标 | 单位 | 最新 | | 较上日 | | 较上周 | | | 螺纹钢主力合约收盘价 | 元/吨 | 307 ...

穆迪：预计澳大利亚铁矿石勘探开支将保持强劲势头。 ...

免责声明 知识图强,求实奉献,客户至上,合作共赢 关注微信公众号 | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可 [201] 1292号 | 材产业期现日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2025年5月13日 | | | | 20010559 | | | 钢材价格及价差 | | | | | | | 品种 | 现值 | 前位 | 不改 | 基差 | 单位 | | 螺纹钢现货 (华东) | 3220 | 3170 | 50 | 117 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华北) | 3210 | 3190 | 20 | 107 | | | 螺纹钢现货(华南) | 3310 | 3280 | 30 | 207 | | | 螺纹钢05合约 | 3036 | 2988 | 48 | 184 | | | 载纹钢10合约 | 3082 | 3022 | 60 | 138 | | | 螺纹钢01合约 | 3103 | 3037 | ୧୧ | 117 | | | | | | | | 元/吨 | | 热卷现货 (华东) | 3280 | 3220 | 60 | 51 | | | 热卷现货 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The iron ore market currently shows a situation of increasing supply and demand, with a relatively healthy fundamental situation, which provides support for iron ore prices. After the Sino - US Geneva talks, the tariff policy has been eased, and with the revision of downstream demand expectations, the iron ore price is expected to rebound in the near future [10][11]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - On May 12, the main 2509 contract of iron ore futures fluctuated upwards, rising 3.16% to close at 718.5 yuan/ton. The prices of other steel futures also showed varying degrees of increase, such as RB2510 rising 1.52%, HC2510 rising 1.51%, and SS2507 rising 1.29% [5][7]. - In terms of positions, the long - short position changes of different contracts varied. For the I2509 contract, the top 20 long positions increased by 18,164 hands, and the top 20 short positions increased by 5,325 hands, with a long - short difference of 12,839 hands and a deviation of 2.84% [8]. 3.2 Spot Market and Technical Analysis - In the spot market on May 12, the main iron ore outer - disk quotes increased by $2.5 per ton compared with the previous trading day, and the prices of main - grade iron ore at Qingdao Port were raised by 15 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. Technically, the daily KDJ and MACD indicators of the iron ore 2509 contract showed golden crosses [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - **Supply**: Last week, the shipments from Brazil decreased, while those from Australia increased slightly. The total shipments from 19 ports decreased month - on - month, and the arrivals at 45 ports also decreased slightly. However, the overall level was still moderately high. The shipments in the past four weeks increased by 1.68% compared with the previous four weeks, and it is expected that the arrivals will remain at a moderately high level in the near future, with a loose iron ore supply [10][11]. - **Demand**: Last week, the daily average pig iron output increased again, reaching a new high of 2.4564 million tons since late October 2023. Steel mills maintained strong production, providing strong support for the actual demand for iron ore [11]. - **Inventory**: The available days of steel mill inventory remained at 22 days, and the port inventory decreased slightly. As the arrivals remain at a high level, it is expected that the inventory will increase in the near future, but the increase space is limited [11]. 3.4 Industry News - On May 12, Rio Tinto signed a final joint - venture agreement with Japan's Sumitomo Metal Mining for the Winu copper - gold project in Western Australia. Sumitomo will pay up to $430.4 million to acquire a 30% stake in the project [12]. - According to data from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 317,000 units, a month - on - month decrease of 9.3% and a year - on - year decrease of 18.7%. The export of new energy vehicles was 200,000 units, a month - on - month increase of 27% and a year - on - year increase of 76%. From January to April, the export of traditional fuel vehicles was 1.295 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 7.9%, and the export of new energy vehicles was 642,000 units, a year - on - year increase of 52.6% [12]. - The Sino - US Geneva economic and trade talks jointly stated that both sides will take measures to adjust tariffs. The US will modify the ad - valorem tariffs on Chinese goods, and China will make corresponding adjustments to the tariffs on US goods. Both sides will also cancel some additional tariffs and take measures to suspend or cancel non - tariff counter - measures. They will establish a mechanism to continue consultations on economic and trade relations [12][13]. 3.5 Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts related to the iron ore and steel industry, including the prices of main iron ore varieties at Qingdao Port, the price differences between high - grade and low - grade ores and PB powder, shipments from Brazil and Australia, arrivals at 45 ports, domestic mine capacity utilization, port iron ore trading volume, steel mill inventory available days, port inventory and dredging volume, and various production and consumption data of steel products [20][22][24].

铁矿石早报 研究中心黑色团队 2025/5/13 | | | | | 现货 | | | 远期 | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 地区 | 品种 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 折盘面 | 最新 | 日变化 | 周变化 | 进口利润 | | 普氏62指数 | | 98.60 | 0.60 | 1.70 | | | | | | | | 纽曼粉 | 762 | 14 | 9 | 815.0 | 97.10 | 2.85 | 3.05 | -23.19 -2.50 | | | PB粉 | 769 | 15 | 11 | 815.2 | 99.80 | 2.80 | 2.70 | | | 澳洲 | 麦克粉 | 747 | 17 | 10 | 816.0 | 95.25 | 2.90 | 3.25 | -0.62 | | | 金布巴 | 729 | 14 | 11 | 820.5 | 91.40 | 2.80 | 3.45 | 4.98 | | 主流 | 混合粉 | 678 | 16 | 16 | 803.0 ...

需求预期悲观，钢材市场延续弱势 东海黑色金属周度策略 东海期货研究所黑色策略组 2025-05-12 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可[2011]1771号 刘慧峰 从业资格证号：F3033924 投资咨询证号：Z0013026 电话：021-80128600-8621 邮箱：liuhf@qh168.com.cn 联系人： 武冰心 从业资格证号：F03118003 电话：021-80128600-8619 邮箱：wubx@qh168.com.cn 分析师： 黑色策略 | 品种 | 钢材 | 铁矿石 | | --- | --- | --- | | 观点 | 区间震荡 | 偏空 | | 逻辑 | 5月份为钢材市场需求淡季，小长假之后钢材需 | 本周铁水产量继续回升，且盈利钢厂占比也回升2.59个 | | | 求回落明显。虽然有节假日因素影响，但上半年 | 百分点，短期铁水产量仍将维持高位。不过，鉴于钢材 | | | 顶部应该已经出现。供应方面，因钢厂利润尚可， | 需求回落，铁水产量或已接近顶部区域。发货量和到港 | | | 铁水及成材产量均处于高位，不过随着钢材需求 | 量虽因节假日因素有所回落，但二季度为铁矿石发运 ...

铁矿石需警惕利空因素与价格 下跌趋势形成自我强化 作者：曹有明 从业资格号：F3038998 交易咨询号：Z0013162 邮箱：caoyouming@sd-gold.com 2025年5月12日星期一 ——山金期货铁矿石专题报告 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 投资有风险，入市需谨慎 数据来源：iFinD、山金期货投资咨询部 p 铁矿石期货价格已经跌至长期上行趋势线附近，如果期价继续下跌，很有可能形成向下的有效突破，将打 开下行空间。最近几个月价格下跌的过程中，持仓量不断增加。整体形势对多头很不利。 p 供应：随着南半球天气的好转，巴西和澳洲发运量已经回到正常的水平，且未来一段时间，发运量将继续 呈现季节性增加态势，国内到港量也将延续季节性增加的趋势，国内矿山的产量和库存在增加。 p 需求：目前样本钢厂铁水产量已经大幅高于去年同期，且高于去年的峰值水平。在整体需求预期偏弱的情 况下，如此高的铁水产量很难持续，预计今年铁水产量的峰值已经到来，后期下降的预期强烈，这意味着 今年铁矿石的需求高峰期已至，后市铁矿石需求回落概率大。另外，终端需求方面，上周钢材表观需求大 幅回落，今年的出口数据好于预期，但整体增幅在贸易战背景 ...

宏观预期降温，黑色震荡下行 钢矿周度报告 2025-05-12 正信期货产业研究中心 黑色产业组 研究员：谢晨 研究员：杨辉 投资咨询号：Z0001703 投资咨询号：Z0019319 Email：xiec@zxqh.net Email：yangh@zxqh.net 报告主要观点 报告主要观点 | 版块 | 关键词 价格 | 主要观点 现货继续下跌，盘面弱势运行 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 供给 库存 | 高炉产量高位，电炉继续减产 建材库存开始累积，板材库存同步走高 | | | 需求 | 建材需求环比增速放缓，板材需求内弱外强 | | 钢 | | | | 材 | 利润 | 高炉利润走扩，电炉亏损扩大 | | | 基差 | 基差小幅走扩，正套注意止盈 | | | | 中美贸易冲突进入谈判环节，国内政策落地，美联储按兵不动；产业变化：上周高炉产量继续增加，电炉开工环比继续回落，五大材开始减产，短流程亏 损减产，螺纹供应下降，板类产量变化不大；需求方面，混凝土发运回落，建材需求环比增速继续放缓；板类需求同步放慢，出口继续高位但增速明显放 | | | 总结 | 缓，内外需求下行压力较大；库存 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to show a volatile trend. The supply is generally loose as overseas shipments are on the rise and major mines' shipments are gradually recovering, despite a decline in arrivals last week. On the demand side, although steel mills' profitability improved last week, leading to increased production and a slight rise in molten iron output, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. At the macro - level, domestic growth - stabilizing policies have been implemented, and significant progress has been made in China - US economic and trade talks [1][5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Transaction Data | Contract | Closing Price | Change | Change Rate (%) | Total Trading Volume (Lots) | Total Open Interest (Lots) | Price Unit | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | SHFE Rebar | 3022 | -74 | -2.39 | 8123194 | 2893444 | Yuan/ton | | SHFE Hot - Rolled Coil | 3157 | -47 | -1.47 | 2485168 | 1395031 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Iron Ore | 696.0 | -7.5 | -1.07 | 1895858 | 699233 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coking Coal | 877.5 | -53.0 | -5.70 | 1356112 | 418835 | Yuan/ton | | DCE Coke | 1446.5 | -91.5 | -5.95 | 98662 | 50876 | Yuan/ton | [2] 3.2 Market Review - **Demand Side**: Last week, steel mills' profitability improved, leading to active production and a slight increase in molten iron output. However, downstream demand weakened, and molten iron output is expected to decline in the next period. The blast furnace operating rate of 247 steel mills was 84.62%, a 0.29 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 3.12 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The blast furnace iron - making capacity utilization rate was 92.09%, a 0.09 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 4.42 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The steel mill profitability rate was 58.87%, a 2.59 - percentage - point increase from the previous week and a 6.92 - percentage - point increase year - on - year. The daily average molten iron output was 2.4564 million tons, a 0.22 - million - ton increase from the previous week and an 11.14 - million - ton increase year - on - year [4]. - **Supply Side**: Last week, both shipments and arrivals declined month - on - month, maintaining a medium level. The total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 25.404 million tons, a decrease of 2.18 million tons from the previous week. Australian shipments were 17.692 million tons, a decrease of 2.26 million tons from the previous week, and the amount shipped from Australia to China was 15.184 million tons, a decrease of 1.288 million tons from the previous week. Brazilian shipments were 7.712 million tons, an increase of 0.08 million tons from the previous week. The total global iron ore shipments were 30.505 million tons, a decrease of 1.377 million tons from the previous week. The inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports across the country was 147.6471 million tons, a decrease of 0.8356 million tons from the previous week, and the daily average port clearance volume was 3.2851 million tons, a decrease of 0.1673 million tons [5]. 3.3 Industry News - China - US economic and trade high - level talks were held in Geneva, Switzerland, from May 10th to 11th. The talks were candid, in - depth, and constructive, reaching important consensus and making substantial progress. The two sides agreed to establish a China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism [9]. - In April, the Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was 49.0%, a 1.5 - percentage - point decrease from the previous month, indicating a decline in the manufacturing prosperity level [9]. - The Federal Reserve announced to maintain the target range of the federal funds rate between 4.25% and 4.50%, which was in line with market expectations. This was the third consecutive time since January this year that the Fed kept the interest rate unchanged. After the Fed's interest rate decision was announced, traders still expected the Fed to cut interest rates before July and predicted three interest rate cuts this year [9]. - On May 7th, three departments issued a package of financial policies to stabilize the market and expectations. The central bank announced ten policy measures, including a 0.5 - percentage - point comprehensive reserve requirement ratio cut, a 0.1 - percentage - point reduction in policy interest rates, a 0.25 - percentage - point reduction in the interest rates of structural monetary policy tools and provident fund loans, and the establishment of a 500 - billion - yuan "service consumption and elderly care re - loan". The Financial Regulatory Administration will introduce eight incremental policies, including accelerating the introduction of a financing system suitable for the new real - estate development model and approving a 60 - billion - yuan long - term investment pilot for insurance funds. The China Securities Regulatory Commission will fully support Central Huijin to play the role of a quasi - "stabilization fund" and introduce policies and measures to deepen the reform of the Science and Technology Innovation Board and the Growth Enterprise Market [9]. 3.4 Related Charts The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of futures and spot prices, basis, production, inventory, and consumption in the iron ore and steel industries, including the trends of rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore futures and spot prices, steel mill profits, steel production, and port inventories [7][10][12].