2 0 2 5年7月5日，第二届"财·富杯"ESG案例分析大赛总决赛在上海财经大学武川路校区凤凰楼顺 利举行。本次大赛由上海市金融专业学位研究生教育指导委员会指导，上海财经大学富国ESG 研究院主办，富国基金管理有限公司协办，并得到了中欧国际工商学院案例中心、妙盈科技、 高等教育出版社和第一财经等单位的支持。 上海财经大学富国ESG研究院院长、财税投资学院院长范子英教授首先代表活动主办方指出， 在当前"双碳"战略背景下，ESG理念的重要性日益凸显，我国在ESG人才储备方面却仍存在较 大 缺 口 ， 本 次 案 例 大 赛 正 是 对 这 一 时 代 需 求 的 积 极 响 应 ， 旨 在 通 过 实 践 型 教 学 和 真 实 案 例 分 析，激发青年学子对ESG领域的关注与研究热情。 随后，上海市金融专业学位研究生教育指导委员会秘书长、复旦大学经济学院张宗新教授与中 欧国际工商学院案例中心主任陈世敏教授分别致辞。 上海财经大学富国ESG研究院副院长郭峰教授作为主持人介绍了本次ESG案例分析大赛的举办 初心，并指出，2 0 2 5年是ESG理念在中国全面推广、深入发展的关键一年，随着监管政策逐步 明确、市场机 ...

Group 1 - The overall industry sentiment shows an upward trend in coal, machinery, electronics, food and beverage, textiles, non-bank financials, public utilities, and retail, while electricity equipment, pharmaceuticals, light manufacturing, home appliances, automotive, banking, real estate, and environmental protection are on a downward trend [1] - The automotive sector sees a significant increase in daily sales of passenger cars by 18.44%, but the operating rate of semi-steel tires has decreased by 7.64 percentage points [1] - The machinery equipment sector reports a 4.65% increase in the ex-factory price of liquid oxygen [1] Group 2 - The convertible bond market experienced a decline this week, with the weighted average conversion value increasing to 94.08 yuan, up by 2.58 yuan from last week, and the weighted average premium rate decreasing by 2.77 percentage points to 45.56% [4] - There is a recommendation to focus on convertible bond downshift opportunities, particularly as recent downshift proposals have seen significant price increases [4] Group 3 - The reform and risk mitigation of village and town banks is a key focus for financial work in 2024, with over 50 village banks undergoing mergers and restructuring in the first half of the year [5] - The overall performance of banks remains stable, with investment value supported by high valuations and policy benefits [5] Group 4 - Lens Technology and Luxshare Precision are planning to list in Hong Kong, enhancing their global presence, while the US-Vietnam trade agreement is expected to lower supply chain costs for Apple [8] - The upcoming release of Nvidia's GB300 AI chip is anticipated to significantly boost revenue opportunities, with AI server revenue expected to exceed 50% [8] Group 5 - The instant beverage market is projected to grow significantly, with China's per capita consumption still having room for improvement [17] - IFBH's successful IPO and strong revenue growth highlight its leading position in the coconut water market, which is expected to continue expanding [17] Group 6 - The cement supply-side reform focuses on eliminating excess capacity, with a current utilization rate of only 53%, indicating potential for improvement [20] - The electronic cloth sector is experiencing a positive outlook due to increased demand driven by computing power expectations [20]

广东塔牌集团股份有限公司董事会 | 2025 | 广东塔牌集团股份有限公司 | | 年半年度业绩预告 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 证券代码：002233 证券简称：塔牌集团 公告编号：2025-029 | | | | | 广东塔牌集团股份有限公司 | | | | | 本公司及董事会全体成员保证信息披露内容的真实、准确和完整，没有虚假记载、 | | | | | 误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 | | | | | 一、本期业绩预计情况 | | | | | 项目 本报告期 | | 上年同期 | | | 归属于上市公司 盈利： 40,718.72 万元–45,243.02 万元 | | | | | 盈利：22,621.51 | | 万元 | | | 股东的净利润 比上年同期增长：80%-100% | | | | | 扣除非经常性损 盈利：22,950.51 万元–25,704.57 万元 | | | | | 盈利：18,360.41 | | 万元 | | | 益后的净利润 比上年同期增长：25%- 40% | | | | | 基本每股收益 盈利：0.35 元/股–0.39 元/股 元/股 | ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a significant increase in net profit for the first half of 2025, driven by higher cement sales and cost reduction efforts [1] Financial Performance - The estimated net profit attributable to shareholders for January 1 to June 30, 2025, is projected to be between 407 million to 452 million yuan, representing an increase of 80%-100% compared to 226 million yuan in the same period last year [1] - The net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses is expected to be between 230 million to 257 million yuan, which is a growth of 25%-40% from 184 million yuan year-on-year [1] - Basic earnings per share are forecasted to be between 0.35 yuan to 0.39 yuan, compared to 0.19 yuan in the same period last year [1] Operational Drivers - The growth in performance is primarily attributed to an increase in cement sales year-on-year, a decrease in cement prices, and effective cost reduction and efficiency enhancement measures [1]

该行业联合减产为企业自发行为，减产效果明显，也经受住了时间考验。近期，三氯蔗糖主流报价为19 万元—20万元/吨。 三氯蔗糖去年8月遭遇的情形为行业全面亏损，如今不少行业面临该窘境。三氯蔗糖减产保价能够成 功，有一定特殊性，核心原因是行业玩家比较少，主要厂家基本垄断了行业产能。其中一家的产能占比 比较突出，能形成带动作用，联合减产的主观愿望比较强烈，联合减产也比较容易执行下去。 面对竞相压价导致的行业内卷，国内不少行业都提出减产措施，减产效果如何还有待观察，不过，记者 此前观察到两个行业自发减产保价较为成功的案例，可资借鉴。 三氯蔗糖产业近些年快速发展，产品主要供出口，每年都有不小销量增幅，但是价格波动剧烈：2019年 每吨25.83万元，2020年每吨23.4万元，2022年因环保政策限制和运费上涨等因素达到每吨38.63万元。 到2024年，由于产能扩张和需求下滑价格大幅回落至每吨14.16万元。当年8月，国内三氯蔗糖厂家报价 已降至10万元/吨，较2023年同期下降33.33%；同时其行业平均毛利为-1.6万元/吨，毛利率为-16%。 去年8月28日，金禾实业（002597）、康宝生化、科宏生物和新琪安 ...

在建筑行业产业链上游的水泥行业，恶性价格战引发行业大面积亏损，"反内卷"行动来得更早。据中国 水泥网《2024年水泥行业上市公司中报综评》分析，2024年上半年，水泥价格低位运行，行业整体呈现 出"需求萎缩、竞争激烈、价格低迷、经营亏损"的运行特征，20家水泥行业上市公司有11家盈利，9家 亏损，盈利公司利润均出现下降。2024年8月，浙江、陕西、贵州等地的水泥行业协会发出倡议，呼吁 抵制行业内出现的"内卷式"恶性竞争。 "反内卷"行动延伸至建筑行业，包括央企、地方国企在内的33家建筑类企业联合发出建筑行业"反内 卷"倡议书。 据央视新闻7月7日报道，建筑行业"反内卷"倡议书旨在凝聚行业共识，维护公平竞争，推动形成良好行 业生态，坚决抵制"内卷式"竞争。同时提出以科技创新加快转型升级，追求内在价值、长期价值，不拼 凑规模、盲目扩张、过度负债，不设"空壳架构"虚耗资源，共同维护市场秩序。 据央视新闻消息，国务院国资委副主任谭作钧表示，转型升级是破解"内卷"的关键手段，要推动科技成 果转化和行业赋能，促进建筑行业加快向高端化、智能化、绿色化迈进。努力摒弃单纯的"价格竞争"， 追求更有技术含量的"价值竞争"。上海证 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the construction materials industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The "anti-involution" trend may drive the cement industry's supply and demand to bottom out earlier. The Central Financial Committee emphasized the need to regulate low-price competition and improve product quality, which may lead to a reduction in actual cement production capacity from over 2.1 billion tons in 2023 to 1.7 billion tons, potentially restoring capacity utilization rates to over 70% [5][18] - The demand for high-end electronic fabrics is underestimated due to the surge in computing power driven by AI. The need for advanced materials is increasing, with domestic companies achieving breakthroughs in Low-DK and Low-CTE electronic fabrics, indicating a significant growth opportunity in this sector [5] Summary by Sections 1. Sector Tracking - The construction materials index rose by 4.0%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index, which increased by 1.4% [9] - Key stocks with significant gains include Zaiseng Technology (+37.1%), Honghe Technology (+23.9%), and Zhongcai Technology (+20.7%) [9] 2. Data Tracking 2.1 Cement - The average price of 42.5 cement nationwide is 348.5 RMB/ton, down 4.5 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 40.8 RMB/ton year-on-year [18] - The cement inventory ratio is 65.7%, down 0.4 percentage points month-on-month and down 2.0 percentage points year-on-year [18] 2.2 Float Glass - The average price of 5mm float glass is 1274.3 RMB/ton, down 4.6 RMB/ton month-on-month and down 438.8 RMB/ton year-on-year [39] - The total inventory of key production enterprises in 13 provinces is 59 million heavy boxes, down 2.5% month-on-month and up 7.7% year-on-year [39] 2.3 Photovoltaic Glass - The average price of 2.0mm coated photovoltaic glass is 10.7 RMB/sqm, down 0.6 RMB/sqm month-on-month and down 4.6 RMB/sqm year-on-year [44] - The number of production lines for photovoltaic glass is 435, with a total daily melting capacity of 94,390 tons, down 4.0% month-on-month and down 17.0% year-on-year [44] 2.4 Glass Fiber - The average price of alkali-free glass fiber yarn is 4680.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and up 15.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [52] - The average price of electronic yarn is 9100.0 RMB/ton, unchanged month-on-month and down 50.0 RMB/ton year-on-year [52] 2.5 Carbon Fiber - The average price of large tow carbon fiber is 72.5 RMB/kg, unchanged month-on-month and down 5.0 RMB/kg year-on-year [56] - The average operating rate of carbon fiber enterprises is 59.94%, down 0.19 percentage points month-on-month and up 13.54 percentage points year-on-year [56] 3. Investment Analysis - The investment strategy suggests that 2025 will be a turning point for listed companies, while 2026 will be a turning point for the industry. The report recommends focusing on companies in the high-growth sectors and those benefiting from the Belt and Road Initiative [5]

报告导读： 2021-24 年是中国水泥企业出海的提速期，而 2025 年后或迎来水泥企业出 海的分化期，企业机制决定了扩产速度，但内功决定海外盈利兑现的质量。 全球视角：需求定增量，格局定价格。 全球水泥发展历程来看，区域水泥的需求从长期看是由城镇化进程 与人口增速决定，但我们观察到 90 年代以来全球需求增长斜率最高区域（包括中国大陆、中亚、东南 亚、北非等），往往对应的是分散化的产业格局和较为激烈的价格竞争。而欧洲作为全球老牌水泥巨头的 发源地在 70 年代率先完成了城镇化，实现了先竞争、先集中，高度集中的产业格局带动欧洲水泥价格在 水泥需求见顶后，反而迎来了价格的新高。 报告名称：海外水泥的纸黄金与真功夫——海外水泥专题 报告日期：2025.07.08 报告作者： 鲍雁辛 （分析师），登记编号： S 0880513070005 杨冬庭 ( 分析师 ) ，登记编号：S 0880522080004 经营视角：机制定速度，内功定质量。 2021-2024 年间国内水泥企业出海进程加速。水泥企业海外投资 产能从 4503 万吨提升至 8759 万吨，其中民营、外资股东背景的企业及市场化机制较优的国企在扩产期 ...

智通财经7月8日电，上峰水泥在互动平台表示，公司出资2亿元通过上海君挚璞创业投资合伙企业（有 限合伙）投资长鑫科技，截至目前间接持有长鑫科技0.15%。 上峰水泥：间接持有长鑫科技0.15%股权 ...

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed [2]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the focus on "supply-side optimization" and "anti-involution" competition, with potential policy implementations expected in the second half of the year [3][8]. - Key industries identified for "anti-involution" include those with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels, particularly in sectors such as chemicals, non-ferrous metals, coal, steel, and various manufacturing and consumer goods [3][11][13]. - The report outlines five perspectives for identifying potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies, including state-owned enterprise (SOE) share, industry concentration, tax revenue impact, labor intensity, and price elasticity post-capacity reduction [5][6]. Summary by Relevant Sections Policy Focus - The report highlights that the Central Financial Committee meeting on July 1 emphasized supply-side optimization and "anti-involution" competition, referencing past supply-side reforms from 2015-2016 as a model for future policy actions [3][8]. Key Industry Characteristics - Industries with high inventory, high CAPEX, low capacity utilization, and low price levels are targeted for policy intervention. These include: - Cyclical industries: Chemicals (chemical products, rubber, non-metallic materials), non-ferrous metals (energy metals), coal, and steel (common steel, steel raw materials) [3][11]. - Manufacturing: Electric new (motors, grid equipment, batteries, photovoltaics), machinery (automation equipment), automotive (passenger vehicles), military electronics, and construction [3][11]. - Consumer goods: Home appliances (appliance components), food and beverage (food processing, liquor, snacks) [3][11]. Five Perspectives for Industry Selection - **State-Owned Enterprise (SOE) Share**: Industries with higher SOE shares are expected to have stronger policy execution efficiency, including coal, common steel, cement, glass, and consumer sectors like liquor [3][5]. - **Industry Concentration**: Higher concentration industries are more likely to achieve supply clearing through stronger pricing power and quicker policy response, particularly in energy metals, non-metallic materials, and consumer goods like liquor [3][5]. - **Tax Revenue Impact**: Industries with lower tax revenue contributions will have a smaller impact on local finances during capacity reduction, focusing on sectors like glass, energy metals, and common steel [3][5]. - **Labor Intensity**: Industries with lower labor intensity will have a reduced impact on employment during capacity reduction, including non-metallic materials, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. - **Price Elasticity Post-Capacity Reduction**: Industries with a strong correlation between asset turnover and gross margin are expected to see greater price and margin expansion post-capacity reduction, including glass, chemical products, and energy metals [3][5]. Potential Beneficiary Industries - The report identifies several industries as potential beneficiaries of the "anti-involution" policies based on the five perspectives, including: - Coal mining, common steel, precious metals, glass fiber, coke, energy metals, steel raw materials, cement, chemical products, non-metallic materials, and various manufacturing sectors [6][7].