Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview: Steel and Related Markets Key Points on Steel Market - Rebar prices have fallen to around 3,000 CNY/ton, alleviating some market pessimism, but increasing divergence between bulls and bears [1] - Since early June, futures have stabilized with a slowing downward slope; steel mills remain profitable due to a significant drop in carbon element costs [1][4] - High temperatures and heavy rainfall have negatively impacted demand, leading to a month-on-month decline in rebar demand, with year-on-year figures continuing to drop [1][4] - The hot-rolled market remains resilient, with downstream manufacturing maintaining high demand levels, although overall manufacturing sentiment is declining [5][6] Real Estate Impact - Real estate investment has decreased significantly, with new construction area down 20% and sales area remaining negative; this has severely impacted market confidence [7] - The expectation is that real estate policies will focus on stability in the second half of 2025, but internal momentum remains weak, and hidden inventory is high [8][9] Infrastructure Investment - Domestic policy support has increased, leading to some improvement in infrastructure investment, but traditional projects are nearing saturation and yield insufficient returns [10][11] - Excluding power-related projects, infrastructure improvement remains limited, with marginal declines noted in May data [11] Manufacturing Sector - Manufacturing sentiment has gradually declined since the beginning of the year, with May PMI at 49.5, indicating contraction [12] - Manufacturing investment growth remains high at 8.5% year-to-date, but is expected to slow due to low PPI and poor industrial profits [13][14] Steel Exports - From January to May, China exported nearly 50 million tons of steel, a year-on-year increase of 8.9%, with expectations for high export levels to continue despite domestic demand weakness [15][19] - The international trade environment is expected to be affected by policy fluctuations and trade friction risks, particularly with the U.S. [19] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic steel demand is overall weak, with expectations for continued high export levels; the market remains in a loose supply-demand state [17] - The iron ore supply is expected to be significantly relaxed in the second half of the year, with major mining companies increasing output [20][21] Coal and Coke Markets - The coking coal market has seen significant price drops, with recent rebounds being limited; global economic recession fears are impacting industrial valuations [29] - The coke market is expected to face pressure in the second half of the year due to reduced iron water production and insufficient market support [32] Iron Ore Market - The iron ore market is expected to experience slight negative growth in 2025, with supply expected to increase significantly in the second half of the year [20][28] - Domestic iron ore production is under pressure, with imports declining significantly due to various factors including weather and trade policies [23][36] Strategic Recommendations - The recommendation is to adopt a strategy of selling on rallies or rebounds, rather than chasing short positions [18] - Monitoring the developments in U.S.-China trade relations and domestic demand stimulus policies is crucial for future market direction [17] Conclusion - The overall sentiment in the steel and related markets is cautious, with significant challenges posed by weak domestic demand, real estate sector struggles, and external trade pressures. The focus remains on monitoring policy changes and market dynamics to identify potential investment opportunities and risks.

Group 1 - The article discusses the paradox of resource-rich African countries that remain impoverished due to poor management and governance [5][47][51] - Zimbabwe is highlighted as a case where despite its rich mineral resources, it lacks significant mining operations due to inadequate institutional frameworks and fragmented mining rights [6][9][10] - The mining rights system in Zimbabwe is described as opaque and inefficient, leading to overlapping claims and discouraging long-term investments [11][14][30] Group 2 - The article emphasizes the importance of stable policies and legal frameworks for attracting mining investments, contrasting successful countries like Australia and Canada with many African nations [15][16][17] - Mali's abrupt changes in mining laws and government actions against companies illustrate the risks investors face in the region [19][20][25] - The concept of "resource curse" is introduced, explaining how abundant resources can lead to economic instability and poor governance in African countries [47][49][51] Group 3 - The article points out that Congo (DRC) possesses vast mineral wealth but suffers from ongoing conflict and weak governance, making it a challenging environment for investment [39][41][46] - The narrative of "resource curse" is further reinforced by the observation that governments often exploit resources for personal gain rather than for national development [48][49][53] - The conclusion stresses that the fate of resource-rich countries depends on their ability to establish transparent governance and legal systems, rather than the mere presence of resources [51][54][55]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The main contract price of rebar oscillated with a daily increase of 0.10%, and the volume and open interest expanded. The supply of rebar continued to rise, while the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were under pressure. However, the inventory inflection point was yet to appear, and the real - world contradictions were limited. It is expected that steel prices will continue to oscillate, and attention should be paid to demand changes [4]. - The main contract price of hot - rolled coil rebounded from the bottom, with a daily increase of 0.39%, and the volume increased while the open interest remained stable. The supply of hot - rolled coil was stable at a high level, while the demand weakened. The fundamental contradictions accumulated, and the price of hot - rolled coil continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the risk of tariffs after the "exemption period" ends [4]. - The main contract price of iron ore oscillated higher, with a daily increase of 0.64%, and the volume increased while the open interest decreased. The demand for iron ore showed some resilience, supporting the ore price. However, the supply remained at a high level, and the demand growth space was limited. The supply - demand pattern of iron ore did not improve substantially, and the ore price continued to be under pressure and oscillated at a low level. Attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [4]. Summary by Directory Industry Dynamics - In May 2025, the number of new global shipbuilding orders was 73, a decrease of 46 from April 2025. The corrected total tonnage decreased by 63.85% month - on - month and 54.71% year - on - year. Chinese shipyards received the most orders, followed by South Korea [6]. - The third batch of consumer goods trade - in funds will be issued in July 2025. The relevant departments will coordinate to ensure the orderly implementation of the consumer goods trade - in policy throughout the year [7]. - The Eurasian Economic Commission decided to continue imposing a 15.50% anti - dumping duty on seamless steel pipes originating from China until June 23, 2030. The announcement will take effect on July 24, 2025 [8]. Spot Market - The spot prices of rebar in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,030, 3,160, and 3,190 respectively, with price changes of - 10, - 20, and - 6. The spot prices of hot - rolled coil in Shanghai, Tianjin, and the national average were 3,180, 3,100, and 3,218 respectively, with no price changes. The price of Tangshan steel billet was 2,910 with no change, and the price of Zhangjiagang heavy scrap was 2,100 with a - 10 change. The coil - rebar price difference was 150, and the rebar - scrap price difference was 930 [9]. - The price of 61.5% PB powder at Shandong ports was 702 with a + 2 change, the price of Tangshan iron concentrate was 697 with no change. The sea freight from Australia was 8.78, and from Brazil was 22.68. The SGX swap price (current month) was 94.30, and the Platts Index (CFR, 62%) was 92.75 [9]. Futures Market - The closing price of the rebar futures active contract was 2,973, with a 0.10% increase, the highest price was 2,977, the lowest price was 2,952, the trading volume was 1,377,892 with an increase of 16,628, and the open interest was 2,191,778 with an increase of 19,178 [11]. - The closing price of the hot - rolled coil futures active contract was 3,103, with a 0.39% increase, the highest price was 3,104, the lowest price was 3,080, the trading volume was 552,939 with an increase of 19,514, and the open interest was 1,510,669 with an increase of 263 [11]. - The closing price of the iron ore futures active contract was 705.5, with a 0.64% increase, the highest price was 707.5, the lowest price was 698.0, the trading volume was 326,475 with an increase of 10,602, and the open interest was 654,225 with a decrease of 17,723 [11]. Related Charts - The report presents various charts related to steel and iron ore inventories, including weekly changes and total inventories of rebar and hot - rolled coil, and inventories of iron ore at ports, steel mills, and domestic mines [13][18][28] - Charts also show the production situation of steel mills, such as the blast furnace operating rate, capacity utilization rate, and profitability of 247 sample steel mills, as well as the operating rate of independent electric furnaces and the profit - loss situation of independent electric arc furnace steel mills [28][31][35] Market Outlook - For rebar, the supply - demand pattern changed little. The weekly output increased by 5.66 tons, and the demand was weakly stable. The fundamentals remained seasonally weak, and steel prices were expected to continue to oscillate [36]. - For hot - rolled coil, the supply - demand pattern changed. The weekly output increased by 1.79 tons, and the demand weakened. The price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the tariff risk after the "exemption period" ends [36]. - For iron ore, the supply - demand pattern changed. The terminal consumption of ore increased slightly, but the supply remained at a high level. The ore price was under pressure and oscillated at a low level, and attention should be paid to the performance of finished products [37]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 中信期货研究|⿊⾊建材策略⽇报 2025-06-26 炉料表现好于成材 昨⽇双焦延续⼩幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 ⿊⾊板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动⾮常有限。产业⽅⾯淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁⽔⾼位回升，因此市场对后市库存 ⾛势偏悲观。整体⽽⾔，盘⾯仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 ⼒能否积累。 ⿊⾊：炉料表现好于成材 昨日双焦延续小幅反弹态势，铁矿在700附近震荡，钢材相对偏弱。 黑色板块处于真空期，能交易的驱动非常有限。产业方面淡季钢材现 货市场需求有承压趋势，供应端铁水高位回升，因此市场对后市库存 走势偏悲观。整体而言，盘面仍处于震荡盘整阶段，关注钢材库存压 力能否积累。 1、铁元素方面，海外矿山开始财年末和季末冲量，发运量有季节性 增加预期，7月上旬之前发运或将维持高位，但同比增量有限；需求 端钢企盈利率和铁水回升，预计短期可以维持高位。本周到港季节性 回升，港口小幅累库。短期海外矿山季末冲发运，矿石库存有阶段性 小幅累库预期，但预计幅度有限，整体供需矛盾不突出。近期重点关 注需求端钢企盈利状况和检修计划。 2、碳元 ...

Group 1 - The core focus of the news is the rapid advancement of the Mami Cuo salt lake project by Zangge Mining, which has received approval for its construction plans and technical routes after obtaining project approval [1] - The Mami Cuo salt lake project has a proven lithium chloride resource of approximately 250.11 thousand tons, equivalent to about 217.74 thousand tons of lithium carbonate [1][2] - The project is set to commence its first phase of construction in the third quarter of this year, with a construction period estimated to be between 9 to 12 months [1][2] Group 2 - The first phase of the Mami Cuo project aims for an annual production capacity of 50 thousand tons of lithium carbonate, with plans for a second phase to expand capacity to between 50 thousand and 80 thousand tons, pending government approval [2] - The project incorporates a unique brine modification process to address the challenges of aluminum-based adsorbents in Tibetan salt lake brine, while also ensuring a sustainable freshwater source [2] - Zangge Mining has set a target for the project's lithium extraction rate to be no less than 95%, balancing production efficiency and cost optimization [2] Group 3 - Zangge Mining is actively extending its operations upstream to enhance resource self-sufficiency, with potassium resources primarily sourced from the Chaqi Salt Lake and Laos potassium salt projects [3] - The long-term planned lithium salt production capacity for the Mami Cuo salt lake is 100 thousand tons, while the two salt lakes under Guoneng are projected to have a combined capacity of 130 thousand tons, contributing to a total potential lithium salt supply of approximately 300 to 400 thousand tons from various Tibetan salt lakes [3]

日度报告——综合晨报 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 [T报ab告le_日R期an：k] 2025-06-26 宏观策略（国债期货） 国务院副总理：我国经济顶住压力保持向好态势 股票上涨很可能是下半年债市面临的一个风险，但股市走强对 于债市的影响是偏短期的。多头可继续持有，关注逢回调买入 策略。 宏观策略（外汇期货(美元指数)） 北约宣布 2035 年前增加军费开支 综 特朗普准备提前任命美联储主席，这会对于市场产生明显的影 响，市场预计降息速度会有所上升，美元短期走弱。 合 宏观策略（股指期货） 晨 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务 报 国泰君安国际获批可提供虚拟资产交易服务，带动金融板块大 幅拉升，沪指创年内新高。市场成交大幅放量。高估值下市场 情绪依然火热。 农产品（棉花） 欧盟服装进口：4 月份增速明显下降 对中国进口疲软 据棉花信息网公布的数据显示，处于纺织淡季的 6 月上半月，国 内棉花的商业库存继续快速去化，这在一定程度上增强了市场 对年度后期陈作供应偏紧的担忧。 有色金属（铜） ICSG：4 月全球铜市供应短缺 3.8 万吨 宏观因素短期对铜价仍相对偏支撑，基本面供需两弱对盘面影 ...

Group 1: Iron Ore Market Overview - Recent spot transactions for iron ore have been weak, with the basis continuing to narrow, and the overall market maintaining a fluctuating pattern [1] - The overall supply of iron ore is gradually recovering, with significant support from new production capacity projects coming online [3] Group 2: Global Manufacturing and Economic Indicators - Global manufacturing is showing weak recovery, with JPMorgan's global manufacturing PMI at 49.6%, down 0.2 percentage points month-on-month, remaining in contraction territory for the second consecutive month [2] - China's official manufacturing PMI increased by 0.5 percentage points to 49.5%, indicating a weak recovery [2] Group 3: Steel Production and Market Dynamics - Steel mills are actively squeezing coking coal profits, leading to a fourth round of price reductions for coking coal, which has improved the profitability of steel mills [4] - The operating rate of 247 steel mills has increased by 0.41 percentage points to 83.82%, with daily molten iron production at 2.4218 million tons, showing resilience despite the seasonal downturn [4] Group 4: Port Inventory Trends - Iron ore port inventory has been decreasing, with a total drop of 389,800 tons to 138.9416 million tons as of June 20, while steel mills' imported ore inventory increased by 1.3756 million tons to 89.3624 million tons [5] - The supply-demand balance for iron ore is expected to weaken in July, with port inventories likely to accumulate slightly, potentially reaching 150 million tons in the second half of the year [5]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 钢材&铁矿石 | 日报 2025 年 6 月 25 日 钢材&铁矿石日报 专业研究·创造价值 产业弱稳运行，钢矿延续震荡 核心观点 螺纹钢：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.33%日跌幅，量增仓稳。现阶段， 螺纹钢供应小幅回升，而需求延续季节性弱势，供需格局并未好转，淡 季钢价承压运行，相对利好则是库存偏低，现实矛盾不大，预计走势维 持震荡寻底态势，关注需求表现情况。 热轧卷板：主力期价震荡运行，录得 0.26%日跌幅，量仓收缩。目前来 看，热卷供需格局迎来好转，但供应维持高位，且需求韧性存疑，基本 面改善持续性存疑，上行驱动不强，预计走势维持震荡运行态势，重点 关注需求情况。 铁矿石：主力期价低位震荡，录得 0.43%日跌幅，量增仓缩。现阶 段，矿石需求韧性表现尚可，给予矿价支撑，但供应维持高位，且需求 增量空间有限，矿石基本面并未实质性改善，后续矿价延续低位震荡运 行，关注成材表现情况。 （仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议） 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：t ...

Group 1 - The recent decline in iron ore prices is attributed to both seasonal factors and changes in supply-demand dynamics [1] - Rio Tinto's approval of a 31 million ton mining project raises questions about future iron ore prices [1]

如此高的集中度意味着，刚果（金）的供应一旦出现波动，全球市场将立即陷入动荡。相比之下，其他 钴生产国如俄罗斯、澳大利亚和古巴的产量仅占极小份额，根本无法填补刚果（金）留下的缺口。 这并不是第一次。在今年2025年2月，全球钴资源霸主刚果（金）宣布暂停钴原料出口四个月，直接导 致国际市场约7.3万吨的供应缺口，占全球年产量的25%，钴价应声暴涨近50%。 文 | 万联万象 上周末，全球钴资源霸主刚果（金）宣布将钴出口的临时性禁令再延长三个月，以应对国际市场供应过 剩的问题。受此消息影响，本周现货钴开盘后，单日上涨近10％！ 如今，禁令再次延长，直至2025年三季度末其都将暂停出口钴。这一举措不仅加剧了全球钴市场的紧张 局势，更对中国新能源产业造成巨大冲击。为何刚果（金）宁愿牺牲市场份额也要坚持出口禁令？这一 策略与欧佩克"保量不保价"的逻辑有何不同？2025年下半年钴价的走势又将如何？ 一、钴的主导者 要理解此次出口禁令的深远影响，首先必须认识到刚果（金）在全球钴供应链中的核心地位。这个中非 国家不仅是全球钴储量的最大拥有者，占全球总储量的70%以上，更是钴生产的绝对主导者，其年产量 占全球供应量的80%左右。 ...