新华财经北京9月23日电国家发展改革委23日发布，自2025年9月9日以来，国际市场油价小幅波动，按 现行国内成品油价格机制测算，9月23日的前10个工作日平均价格与9月9日前10个工作日平均价格相 比，同时考虑9月9日未调价金额，累计调价金额每吨不足50元。根据《石油价格管理办法》第七条规 定，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整，未调金额纳入下次调价时累加或冲抵。 中石油、中石化、中海油三大公司及其他原油加工企业要组织好成品油生产和调运，确保市场稳定供 应，严格执行国家价格政策。各地相关部门要加大市场监督检查力度，严厉查处不执行国家价格政策的 行为，维护正常市场秩序。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

本文编选自："国家发展改革委"公众号;智通财经编辑：蒋远华。 智通财经APP获悉，国家发改委公布，根据9月23日的前10个工作日平均价格与上次调价前10个工作日 平均价格对比情况，按现行国内成品油价格机制，本次汽、柴油价格不作调整。价格执行时间为2025年 9月23日24时。 ...

Trade and Export - Zhejiang's total import and export value reached 3.68 trillion yuan from January to August, a year-on-year increase of 5.5% [1] - Exports amounted to 2.79 trillion yuan, growing by 7.7%, while imports were 0.89 trillion yuan, a decrease of 0.8% [1] - The province's import and export growth rates exceeded the national averages by 2.0, 0.8, and 0.4 percentage points respectively [1] - Mechanical and electrical products exports increased by 9.0% to 1.31 trillion yuan, accounting for 46.7% of total exports [1] - Private enterprises contributed over 90% to export growth, with their total import and export value at 3.02 trillion yuan, a 7.1% increase [1] Investment - Fixed asset investment decreased by 3.9% from January to August, but investment excluding real estate development grew by 6.7% [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 9.5%, while infrastructure investment increased by 6.4% [1] - Investment in livelihood sectors such as ecological protection, transportation, energy, and water conservancy grew by 6.5% [1] - Equipment and tool purchases saw a significant increase of 10.3% due to large-scale equipment renewal policies [1] Consumer Market - The total retail sales of consumer goods in August reached 308.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 4.9% [2] - Online retail sales surged by 15.9%, indicating strong growth in e-commerce [2] - Retail sales of quality-of-life products, including wearable devices and home appliances, saw substantial increases, with some categories growing by over 100% [2] - From January to August, total retail sales amounted to 2.51 trillion yuan, a growth of 5.1% [2] Industrial Growth - The industrial added value of Zhejiang's large-scale industries grew by 4.6% in August, with 22 out of 37 major industrial sectors reporting positive growth [2] - Key sectors such as automotive, instrumentation, and petroleum processing saw significant increases in added value, contributing to overall industrial growth [2] - The added value of high-tech manufacturing and strategic emerging industries also showed robust growth, with increases of 9.4% and 6.7% respectively [2] Service Sector - From January to July, the revenue of large-scale service enterprises reached 2.04 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.4% [3] - The information transmission, software, and IT services sectors experienced a revenue growth of 12.8% [3] - Emerging service industries, including digital economy core services and high-tech services, reported revenue growth rates of 13.2% and 11.3% respectively [3]

沥青周报 研究员：童川 期货从业证号：F3071222 投资咨询证号：Z0017010 目录 | 第一章 | 综合分析与交易策略 | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | | 第二章 | 核心逻辑分析 | 4 | | 第三章 | 周度数据追踪 | 10 | GALAXY FUTURES 1 227/82/4 228/210/172 181/181/181 87/87/87 文 字 色 基 础 色 辅 助 色 137/137/137 246/206/207 68/84/105 210/10/16 221/221/221 208/218/234 综合分析与交易策略 【综合分析】 周度产量维持高位，需求环比同步走强，9月份供需双旺，需求表现接近往年同期平均水平。产业链库存持续下降，当前炼 厂库存低位，去库速度偏慢；社会库存持续下降，年底前存在主动去库的意向，为市场提供额外供应。估值端，当前炼厂 加工利润尚可，支撑地炼开工高位，沥青估值相对偏高。原油短期震荡偏弱，沥青成本端缺乏有力支撑，沥青单边预计震 荡偏弱，裂解价差短期受油价波动主导，中期偏空。BU2511合约运行区间预计在3350~3450。 【策略】 ...

Industry Investment Ratings The report does not provide industry investment ratings. Core Views - The 7 - 8 months in Q3 show a complex macro - economic situation with economic slowdown pressure and policy counter - cyclical adjustment. The stock market is strong, and the commodity market is volatile. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started, and future policies depend on employment and inflation [2]. - For the RMB exchange rate, it fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed faces challenges in formulating policies, and the RMB may not have a trend appreciation in the short term [3][4]. - The stock index is expected to continue to fluctuate in the short term due to a lack of super - expected information and approaching holidays [6]. - The bond market is expected to be volatile, and it is advisable to hold some long positions and take partial profits [7]. - The shipping index futures are expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying opportunities [9]. - In the non - ferrous metals market, copper is expected to be stable, aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong, zinc is expected to be weak after a rebound, nickel and stainless steel have limited downside space, tin is expected to be volatile, and lithium carbonate is expected to be volatile before the holiday [10][11][14][15][17][18]. - In the black metals market, steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside, iron ore is expected to be volatile, and coal and coke are not recommended as short - positions in the black series [26][29][32]. - In the energy and chemical market, crude oil is expected to be weak in the medium - term, LPG short - positions can be gradually closed, PX - TA can be considered for cautious long - positions, MEG should be observed in the short term, methanol should hold short - put options, PP can be considered for long - positions at low prices, PE is expected to be volatile, pure benzene and styrene are expected to be affected by pre - holiday stocking, fuel oil follows the cost down, and asphalt is expected to be volatile and weak [36][39][45][47][50][53][54][56][57][61]. - In other markets, urea is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, soda ash has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, glass lacks a clear trend, caustic soda's price is affected by various factors, and pulp is expected to be volatile [64][65][67]. Summary by Directory Financial Futures - **Macro**: Policy is the key variable. The economy shows a slowdown pressure, and policy counter - cyclical adjustment is in place. Overseas, the Fed's "preventive降息周期" has started [1][2]. - **RMB Exchange Rate**: It fluctuates around 7.10. The Fed's policy challenges affect the market, and the RMB may not appreciate in the short term [3][4]. - **Stock Index**: It is expected to be volatile due to a lack of information and approaching holidays [6]. - **Bond Market**: It is expected to be volatile, and long - positions can be partially held and profited [7]. - **Shipping Index Futures**: It is expected to be volatile, and the 12 - contract can be considered for low - buying [9]. Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: It is expected to be stable and may fluctuate strongly around 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply and demand [10]. - **Aluminum Industry Chain**: Aluminum is expected to be volatile and strong after a short - term correction. Alumina is expected to be weak, and cast aluminum alloy is expected to be volatile at a high level [11][12]. - **Zinc**: It is expected to be weak after a rebound, with a supply surplus and general demand [13][14]. - **Nickel and Stainless Steel**: They have limited downside space due to concerns about the Indonesian nickel ore sanctions [15][16]. - **Tin**: It is expected to be volatile due to supply and demand [17]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: It is expected to be volatile between 72,000 - 76,000 yuan per ton before the holiday [18][19]. Black Metals - **Steel**: Steel prices are expected to be volatile with limited upside and downside due to supply, demand, and macro - policies [26]. - **Iron Ore**: It is expected to be volatile, and the market may return to fundamentals after the policy is not as expected [29]. - **Coking Coal and Coke**: They are not recommended as short - positions in the black series, and the market is affected by downstream replenishment and policies [32]. - **Silicon Iron and Manganese**: They can be considered for long - positions at low prices, with cost support and anti - involution expectations [33][34]. Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: It is expected to be weak in the medium - term due to supply and demand imbalances, although geopolitical risks provide some support [36][37]. - **LPG**: Short - positions can be gradually closed as the supply is controllable and the demand changes little [39]. - **PX - TA**: They can be considered for cautious long - positions, with supply and demand and processing fee issues [40][42]. - **MEG - Bottle Chip**: It should be observed in the short term, with limited supply elasticity and expected to be volatile [43][45]. - **Methanol**: Hold short - put options as the port contradiction is difficult to solve [47]. - **PP**: It can be considered for long - positions at low prices as the profit is compressed and the device operation needs attention [50]. - **PE**: It is expected to be volatile due to weak supply and demand and low valuation [53]. - **Pure Benzene and Styrene**: They are affected by pre - holiday stocking, and the market is expected to be volatile [54][56]. - **Fuel Oil**: It follows the cost down, and it is advisable to observe in the short term [57]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: Its cracking is weak, and the market is currently soft [59]. - **Asphalt**: It is expected to be volatile and weak, with supply growth and demand affected by weather [61]. Others - **Urea**: It is expected to be volatile between 1650 - 1850, with supply and demand and export factors [64]. - **Soda Ash**: It has a strong supply and weak demand pattern, and the market is affected by new production and exports [64]. - **Glass**: It lacks a clear trend due to high inventory and weak demand [65]. - **Caustic Soda**: Its price is affected by spot rhythm, demand, and macro - expectations [67]. - **Pulp**: It is expected to be volatile, with high inventory and limited upward drive [67].

Group 1: Chemical Sector Performance - The chemical raw materials index decreased by 1.21%, while the chemical machinery index increased by 2.90% [1] - The pharmaceutical index fell by 1.36%, and the pesticide and fertilizer index dropped by 2.50% [1] - The oil processing index declined by 2.22%, the oil extraction index decreased by 3.17%, and the oil trading index fell by 1.46% [1] Group 2: Oil Prices - As of September 19, the WTI crude oil futures settled at $62.68 per barrel, down 0.02% from September 12 [1] - The Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.68 per barrel, down 0.46% from the previous Friday [1] Group 3: Petrochemical Product Price Changes - The top five petrochemical products with price increases were liquid chlorine (up 22.93%), isooctyl acrylate (up 7.47%), acrylic acid (up 5.04%), calcium carbide (up 4.94%), and MMA (up 4.51%) [1] - The top five petrochemical products with price decreases were vitamin E (down 10.00%), epichlorohydrin (down 6.44%), sulfuric acid (down 4.94%), p-nitrochlorobenzene (down 4.62%), and dichloromethane (down 3.64%) [1] Group 4: Capital Market Performance of Chemical Companies - The top five performing listed chemical companies were Kaimete Gas (up 28.62%), Hongda Explosive (up 22.93%), Sanwei Co. (up 22.53%), Zhongshi Technology (up 21.57%), and Jinghua New Materials (up 18.94%) [2] - The bottom five performing listed chemical companies were Runyang Technology (down 11.48%), Lafang Cosmetics (down 10.43%), Wankai New Materials (down 10.42%), Jiaao Environmental Protection (down 10.25%), and Shilong Industrial (down 9.41%) [2]

Group 1: Market Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt futures contracts (BU10, BU11, BU12, BU01, BU03) from August 22 to September 22, 2025, including prices, trading volume, open interest, and inventory [4]. - It also presents spot market prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Northeast China) and at various warehouses (Zhenjiang, Foshan), as well as price differentials and basis [4]. - Data on crack spreads, profits (including asphalt - Brent crack spread, asphalt - Ma Rui profit, refinery comprehensive profits, and import profits), and related oil prices (Brent crude, gasoline, and diesel in Shandong) are included [4]. Group 2: Futures Contract Price Movements - For BU10, the price decreased by 20 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 33 on a weekly basis [4]. - BU11, BU12, BU01, and BU03 also showed daily and weekly price changes, with varying degrees of increase or decrease [4]. Group 3: Trading Volume and Open Interest - The trading volume of asphalt futures decreased by 3,245 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 114,402 on a weekly basis [4]. - Open interest increased by 9,303 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 16,211 on a weekly basis [4]. Group 4: Spot Market Prices - Shandong's asphalt market price decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and decreased by 20 on a weekly basis [4]. - East China's price remained stable on September 22 but decreased by 50 on a weekly basis, while South China's price was unchanged on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. - North China's price was stable on September 22 and increased by 10 on a weekly basis, and Northeast China's price decreased by 20 on both a daily and weekly basis [4]. Group 5: Basis and Spread - The basis and spread between different regions and contracts showed various changes. For example, the Shandong - East China basis decreased by 10 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 30 on a weekly basis [4]. - The basis between different contract months (e.g., 10 - 11, 10 - 12) also had daily and weekly fluctuations [4]. Group 6: Crack Spreads and Profits - The asphalt - Brent crack spread increased by 29 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 23 on a weekly basis [4]. - Asphalt - Ma Rui profit increased by 27 on September 22 compared to the previous day and increased by 22 on a weekly basis [4]. - Refinery comprehensive profits (ordinary and Ma Rui - type) and import profits showed different trends, with some increasing and some remaining stable [4].

大宗商品研究所 燃料油研发报告 研究员： 吴晓蓉 期货从业证号： F03108405 投资咨询从业证号： Z0021537 ： 021-65789108 ： wuxiaorong_qh @chinastock.com.cn | | 2025/9/22 | 2025/9/19 | 2025/9/15 | 2025/8/25 | Δ日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | FU主力 | 2784 | 2796 | 2799 | 2907 | -12 | | FU主力持仓(万手) | 20.6 | 22.2 | 22.2 | 13.1 | -1.6 | | FU仓单(吨) | 127140 | 127140 | 101500 | 73710 | 0 | | LU主力 | 3382 | 3392 | 3375 | 3526 | -10 | | LU主力持仓(万手） | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.6 | 8.1 | 0.1 | | LU仓单 | 10020 | 10020 | 10020 | 11110 | 0 | | FU1-5 | 41 | 42 | 47 | 41 ...

Report Overview - The report is the "Asphalt Daily" dated September 22, 2025, and it provides an analysis of the asphalt market including relevant data, market situations, and market outlooks [1]. 1. Related Data Futures Prices and Positions - BU2511 (main contract) price dropped from 3421 to 3401, a decrease of 20 or -0.58% [2]. - BU2512 price decreased from 3374 to 3352, a drop of 22 or -0.65% [2]. - BU2601 price fell from 3353 to 3322, a decline of 31 or -0.92% [2]. - SC2510 price went down from 487.0 to 483.0, a decrease of 4.0 or -0.82% [2]. - Brent first - line price dropped from 66.76 to 66.46, a decrease of 0.3 or -0.45% [2]. - Main contract positions increased from 23.2 to 23.6 million lots, an increase of 0.4 or 1.83% [2]. - Main contract trading volume decreased from 18.0 to 16.7 million lots, a decrease of 1.2 or -6.92% [2]. - Warehouse receipt quantity decreased from 63680 to 59380 tons, a decrease of 4300 or -6.75% [2]. Basis and Calendar Spreads - BU12 - 01 spread increased from 21.00 to 30.00, an increase of 9.00 or 42.86% [2]. - BU11 - 12 spread increased from 47.00 to 49.00, an increase of 2.00 or 4.26% [2]. - Shandong - main contract basis increased from 276.00 to 288.00, an increase of 12.00 or 4.35% [2]. - East China - main contract basis increased from 126.00 to 148.00, an increase of 22.00 or 17.46% [2]. - South China - main contract basis increased from 116.00 to 138.00, an increase of 22.00 or 18.97% [2]. Industrial Chain Spot Prices - Shandong market price decreased from 3520 to 3510, a decrease of 10.00 or -0.28% [2]. - East China market price remained unchanged at 3500 [2]. - South China market price remained unchanged at 3490 [2]. - Shandong gasoline price decreased from 7483 to 7464, a decrease of 19.00 or -0.25% [2]. - Shandong diesel price increased from 6438 to 6453, an increase of 15.00 or 0.23% [2]. - Shandong petroleum coke price remained unchanged at 2860 [2]. - Diluted asphalt discount remained unchanged at -6.5 [2]. - Exchange - rate mid - price decreased from 7.1128 to 7.1106, a decrease of 0.00 or -0.03% [2]. Spreads and Profits - Asphalt refinery profit increased from -26.81 to -16.44, an increase of 10.37 or 38.69% [2]. - Refined oil comprehensive profit increased from 350.43 to 367.40, an increase of 16.97 or 4.84% [2]. - BU - SC crack spread increased from -569.26 to -559.53, an increase of 9.73 or 1.71% [2]. - Gasoline spot - Brent spread increased from 949.74 to 950.03, an increase of 0.29 or 0.03% [2]. - Diesel spot - Brent spread increased from 714.97 to 745.34, an increase of 30.37 or 4.25% [2]. 2. Market Analysis Market Overview - On September 22, the domestic asphalt market average price was 3782 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [5]. - In North China, the main refineries of 70 and 90 asphalt had limited shipments, and the market price was stable [5]. - In Shandong, the demand was average, and there were many low - price resources. The price of the main refineries' asphalt might be lowered [5]. - In South China, the overall refinery inventory was controllable, supporting price stability [5]. - In East China, the main refineries had stable shipments under preferential policies, but there were still many low - price resources in Zhenjiang, and the market trading was tepid [5]. - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3630 - 3750 yuan/ton. Rainfall inhibited demand, and with the resumption of production of some refineries, the supply was sufficient. The spot price dropped to about 3470 yuan/ton, and the price of the main refineries might be loosened [5]. - In the Yangtze River Delta market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3650 - 3650 yuan/ton. The terminal demand was tepid, and the cost was average. The downstream users preferred low - price resources in Zhenjiang. In the short term, the asphalt price might show a weak trend [5]. - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price was stable at 3480 - 3530 yuan/ton. In Guangdong, high - speed projects were rushing to work, and some social warehouses increased shipments before the typhoon. In Guangxi, the project construction was stable, and the local refinery inventory was low. The typhoon weather had a slight impact on project construction and shipments, but the overall inventory pressure was not large, which was beneficial for price stability [6]. Market Outlook - Oil prices have fallen from high levels and are expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term, lacking effective support at the cost end [7]. - The weekly asphalt production has been increasing, and the industry chain is still destocking. The current demand level is basically the same as in previous years, and the peak - season expectation has been fulfilled [7]. - The refinery processing profit is acceptable, and the planned production of local refineries in October is expected to further increase. The continuous destocking of social inventory increases the supply, and the asphalt supply - demand tends to be loose, with relatively high valuation [7]. - The asphalt price is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the crack spread is expected to be bearish in the medium term. The operating range of the BU2511 contract is expected to be between 3350 and 3450 [7]. 3. Related Diagrams - The report includes diagrams such as the closing price of the BU main contract, the position of the BU main contract, the market price of asphalt in East China and Shandong, and the prices of Shandong local - refinery gasoline and diesel, with data sources from Galaxy Futures, Wind, and Steel Union [10][12][15].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Baoli International (300135) is seeking opportunities for transformation and upgrading while maintaining stable development in its traditional businesses of asphalt and general aviation [1] - The company emphasizes that any transformation will be conducted in compliance with state-owned enterprise regulations and securities supervision [1]