Market Overview - The A-share market indices all closed lower today, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.82% at 4095.45 points, the Shenzhen Component down by 0.65% at 14280.78 points, the Sci-Tech 50 down by 0.72% at 1373.64 points, and the ChiNext Index down by 0.22% at 3310.28 points [1][10] - Overall, there were 1502 stocks that rose and 3823 stocks that fell, with a total market turnover of 24003 billion yuan, a decrease of 416 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day [1][10] Industry Performance - Among the Shenwan first-level industries, the top gainers were Food & Beverage (up 0.87%), Building Decoration (up 0.60%), and Banking (up 0.38%), while the largest declines were seen in Comprehensive (down 4.19%), Nonferrous Metals (down 2.70%), and Computer (down 2.70%) [1][10] Concept Sector Performance - The concept sectors with the highest gains today included Lithium Battery Anode, Major Infrastructure State-Owned Enterprises, Tibet Revitalization, Phosphate Chemical Industry, Salt Lake Lithium Extraction, Western Major Infrastructure, Power Batteries, Lithium Battery Electrolyte, Wind Power Generation, Air Source Heat Pumps, Lithium Batteries, Copper Clad Laminates, Selected Beverage Manufacturing, Baijiu, and Urban Village Renovation [2]

Market Overview - The market shows a trend of simultaneous reduction in positions by both institutional and retail investors in the Sci-Tech Innovation Index, with a noticeable convergence in the outflow speed of institutional funds from the ChiNext Index and the entire A-share market since March 4 [6][7] - Institutional funds exhibited strong outflow momentum before March 4, which weakened afterward, indicating a volatile outflow pattern [6][7] - Retail investors displayed a gradual outflow from the Sci-Tech Innovation Index, maintaining a wait-and-see attitude [6][7] Fund Flow by Market Capitalization and Valuation Style - Institutional funds accelerated their outflow from high-valuation indices, while retail funds continued to flow into these indices, indicating a lack of style preference switch [16][17] - The divergence in net inflow rates between retail and institutional investors remains positive across various style indices, suggesting a more cautious approach from institutional investors [16][17] Fund Flow by Major Industry Style - Institutional funds are slowly returning to the cyclical manufacturing sector, with a shift from outflow to slow inflow observed after March 4 [22][23] - The market displays significant volatility in fund inflow acceleration for both technology and cyclical manufacturing sectors, reflecting strong market competition [22][23] Fund Flow by Primary Industry Upstream Resources - Institutional funds are experiencing significant outflows from non-ferrous metals, while the outflow from basic chemicals is stabilizing [28][29] - Retail funds are heavily flowing into non-ferrous metals, indicating a strong speculative interest [28][29] Midstream Materials & Manufacturing - The electric power equipment sector has seen cumulative net inflows from institutional funds, while defense and machinery sectors are experiencing fluctuating outflows [30][31] - Retail buying power has shown a phase of increase, with net inflow rates indicating stronger retail interest compared to institutional [30][31] Downstream Essential Consumption - Institutional funds have shown a slight net inflow into agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery, while other sectors lack significant buying momentum [34][35] Downstream Discretionary Consumption - There is no significant inflow momentum from institutional funds in this sector, with notable outflows particularly in household appliances [37] TMT Sector - The TMT sector is characterized by strong small-order buying power, while institutional funds are showing fluctuating outflows in communication and electronics [40][41] Large Financials - Retail investors are favoring banks for defensive positioning, with significant net inflows, while institutional funds continue to show outflows in non-bank financials [48][49] Support Services - The public utilities sector is a trading hotspot, with institutional funds showing alternating net inflows and outflows, indicating significant volatility [54][55] Leverage Fund Situation - The growth rate of margin financing and securities lending balances has slowed, with the market average guarantee ratio showing adjustments, indicating manageable leverage risks [60][61] - As of March 12, the total margin financing and securities lending balance is approximately 2.66 trillion yuan, maintaining ample liquidity [60][61] - The overall trading activity in margin financing has declined, with the proportion of margin trading transactions decreasing to 9.67% [61][62]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives specific trading suggestions for various futures products, including long - term bullish, short - term trading, range trading, and short - selling opportunities [1] Core Views - The report analyzes the market conditions of multiple futures sectors, including macro - finance, black building materials, non - ferrous metals, energy chemicals, cotton - spinning industry chain, and agricultural livestock. It provides trading strategies based on factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1] Summary by Directory Macro - Finance - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, recommend buying on dips. US inflation cools, Fed rate - cut expectations decline, and geopolitical factors may put pressure on the stock index [5] - **Treasury Bonds**: Expected to trade in a range. The trading around the Two Sessions and short - term RRR cuts or rate cuts is over, and the market will focus on quarter - end institutional behavior and overseas situations. China's inflation data may influence the market [6] Black Building Materials - **Coking Coal**: Short - term trading. After the Spring Festival, the coking coal market is weak and stable, with slow demand recovery and low trading volume [9] - **Rebar**: Range trading. The rebar futures price is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term, with low static valuation and ongoing inventory accumulation [10] - **Glass**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply increases, inventory rises, demand is weak, and the fundamental situation is poor, limiting the upside potential [11][12] Non - Ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Short - term range trading or wait - and - see, with an operating range of 98,000 - 106,000 yuan/ton. Geopolitical factors, economic recession expectations, and inventory changes need to be closely monitored [14][15] - **Aluminum**: Suggest strengthening observation. The price is affected by geopolitical situations, supply - demand changes, and inventory levels. It is recommended to allocate more while controlling positions [17] - **Nickel**: Suggest holding moderately on dips. The reduction of nickel ore quotas in Indonesia supports the price, but demand is weak in some sectors [18][19] - **Tin**: Range trading. Supply is tight, and downstream demand is stable. The price is expected to continue wide - range fluctuations [20] - **Gold and Silver**: Both are expected to trade in a range. Geopolitical situations and inflation expectations affect the prices, and it is recommended to wait and trade cautiously [22][23] - **Lithium Carbonate**: Range - bound. Supply and demand both increase, and the price is expected to continue to fluctuate [24][25] Energy Chemicals - **PVC**: Bullish and volatile. The cost is low, supply is high, domestic demand is weak, and exports are expected to support the price in the short term [26] - **Caustic Soda**: Bullish and volatile. Demand from alumina production provides support, and exports may increase due to geopolitical factors. Spring maintenance and downstream restocking support the price [29] - **Styrene**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical factors drive up the oil price, providing cost support. Low inventory and export support the price [30] - **Polyolefins**: Bullish and volatile. Geopolitical conflicts support the cost, and supply - demand conditions improve marginally [31] - **Rubber**: Bullish and volatile. Cost support is strong, but inventory pressure is high. It is recommended to buy on dips and not chase the high [32] - **Urea**: Bullish and range - trading. Supply increases, demand from agriculture and compound fertilizers supports the price, and inventory levels are relatively low [34] - **Methanol**: Bullish and range - trading. The conflict in Iran may cause supply shortages, and domestic supply and demand are in a complex situation [35] - **Soda Ash**: Short - selling on rallies. Supply is high, inventory pressure is large, and the price is expected to remain under pressure [37] Cotton - Spinning Industry Chain - **Cotton and Cotton Yarn**: Bullish and volatile. Global cotton supply and demand change, and the price is expected to be bullish after the festival [38] - **Apples**: Bullish and volatile. The trading is stable, with some regional differences in price and demand [40] - **Red Dates**: Expected to trade in a range. The acquisition price in the Xinjiang region is based on quality [41] Agricultural Livestock - **Hogs**: For contracts 05 and 07, adopt a short - selling on rallies strategy; for contract 09, treat it as a range - bound market. The short - term price is under pressure due to oversupply, and the long - term price depends on capacity reduction [42][43] - **Eggs**: Range - bound. Supply is sufficient, demand is in a transition stage, and the price is expected to oscillate in the short term [44] - **Corn**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing high prices. Short - term supply - demand game is intense, and long - term supply is expected to be relatively loose [45] - **Soybean Meal**: Bullish and volatile. Be cautious when chasing long positions in the 05 contract. The price is affected by factors such as US soybean exports, Brazilian harvest, and domestic supply [46] - **Oils and Fats**: Bullish and volatile. Follow the international crude oil price. It is recommended to go long on soybean and palm oils. Different oils have different supply - demand situations [47][48][49]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Silverhua ETF (159871) and its major holdings, highlighting a general decline in the prices of key stocks within the non-ferrous metals sector on March 13, 2023 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Silverhua ETF (159871) opened down by 0.79%, priced at 1.126 yuan [1] - Since its inception on March 10, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 127.30%, while its return over the past month is -0.27% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Silverhua ETF include: - Zijin Mining: down 1.50% - Luoyang Molybdenum: down 1.74% - Northern Rare Earth: down 1.10% - Huayou Cobalt: down 0.67% - China Aluminum: down 0.41% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 0.99% - Shandong Gold: down 0.72% - Yun Aluminum: up 0.28% - Zhongjin Gold: down 1.47% - Zhongmin Resources: up 0.80% [1]

Market Overview - The A-share market is experiencing narrow fluctuations with a strong wait-and-see sentiment among investors, particularly as the ChiNext index has dropped by approximately 1% [1] - Recent fears regarding the Middle East situation have eased somewhat after over a week of adjustments, but the market remains cautious as the weekend approaches, making it difficult to form a strong buying consensus [1] - The uncertainty surrounding the oil transportation route in the Strait of Hormuz continues to impact the prices of oil and the US dollar, suggesting that the market's risk appetite will depend on any substantial easing of tensions in the Middle East [1] Future Outlook - The ongoing uncertainty in the Middle East may influence short-term market dynamics, particularly through fluctuations in oil prices [1] - A significant rise in oil prices could heighten market concerns and affect the rotation of A-share sectors, with the strength of the petrochemical sector potentially suppressing preferences for technology growth sectors [1] - Despite short-term challenges, the long-term upward trend of the A-share market remains intact, supported by increased household savings entering the market and a recovery in the performance of A-share listed companies [1] Hot Sectors - March marks the beginning of the annual report season, with high-performance sectors expected to attract market attention [2] - Key areas of focus include: 1. The established trend in AI hardware, with a continuous increase in the token usage of major AI models, indicating a peak in AI applications by 2026 [2] 2. The ongoing trend of semiconductor localization, with attention on semiconductor equipment, wafer manufacturing, materials, and IC design [2] 3. The rapid growth in demand for new energy materials, both domestically and internationally, leading to supply shortages and price increases, with this trend expected to continue into 2026 [2] 4. The price increase cycle in non-ferrous metals and chemicals, which is anticipated to yield strong annual report performances due to sustained price growth [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Non-ferrous Metals ETF (516650), which opened down by 1.09% at 2.174 yuan [1] - Major holdings in the Non-ferrous Metals ETF include Zijin Mining, which fell by 1.50%, and other companies like Luoyang Molybdenum, Northern Rare Earth, and China Aluminum, which also experienced declines [1] - The fund's performance benchmark is the CSI Sub-industry Non-ferrous Metals Theme Index return, managed by Huaxia Fund Management Co., with a return of 119.89% since its establishment on June 9, 2021, and a recent one-month return of -0.86% [1] Group 2 - The article provides specific stock performance data for the ETF's major holdings, indicating mixed results with some stocks like Ganfeng Lithium and Tianqi Lithium showing gains of 0.99% and 0.67% respectively, while others like Shandong Gold and Zhongjin Gold saw declines [1] - The fund manager is identified as Shan Kuan Zhi, emphasizing the management aspect of the ETF [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the content. Core Views - The report provides daily research and analysis on various commodities, including metals, energy, agricultural products, and chemicals, evaluates their market trends and price movements, and gives corresponding investment advice based on fundamental data and news [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Metals - **Gold**: Geopolitical conflicts have broken out, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][6]. - **Silver**: Attention should be paid to liquidity contraction, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][7]. - **Copper**: Inventory increase limits price increase, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][12]. - **Zinc**: It shows a weak and volatile pattern, and the trend intensity is -1 [2][15]. - **Lead**: The increase of domestic inventory puts pressure on the price, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][18]. - **Tin**: It is in a state of shock adjustment, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][21]. - **Aluminum**: It fluctuates at a high level, the trend intensity is 1; Alumina: The cost is rising, the trend intensity is 0; Casting aluminum alloy: It follows electrolytic aluminum, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][25]. - **Platinum**: Geopolitical disputes have arisen again, and precious metals are under pressure, with a trend intensity of 0; Palladium: It stays at a low level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][28]. - **Nickel**: Tight supply at the mine end supports the current situation, while inventory accumulation in smelting limits its flexibility, and the trend intensity is 0; Stainless steel: Macroeconomic risk preferences cause disturbances, and the actual cost center moves up, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][32]. Energy - **Crude oil**: Not in the content, but relevant information affects other commodities. - **Coking coal**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][62]. - **Coke**: The enthusiasm for downstream replenishment is fermenting, and it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][61]. - **Steam coal**: Supply and demand are becoming more abundant, and coal prices are回调, with a trend intensity of -1 [2][67]. Chemicals - **Para-xylene**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **PTA**: The supply side has reduced production, and the unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 2 [2][74]. - **MEG**: The unilateral trend is still relatively strong, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][74]. - **Rubber**: It fluctuates widely, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][82]. - **Synthetic rubber**: It fluctuates widely within the day, and the price center moves up, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][86]. - **LLDPE**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, and the shrinkage of cracking supply continues, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **PP**: The supply of various raw materials is restricted, and upstream production starts to shrink, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][89]. - **Caustic soda**: Supply is passively reduced, and the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][92]. - **Paper pulp**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][94]. - **Glass**: The price of the original sheet is stable, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][100]. - **Methanol**: It fluctuates widely at a high level, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][103]. - **Urea**: It fluctuates widely, and the fundamentals support the price, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][107]. - **Styrene**: It fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][110]. - **Soda ash**: The spot market changes little, and the trend intensity is 1 [2][112]. - **Propylene**: Geopolitical disturbances at the cost end lead to an expected reduction in supply, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **LPG**: Geopolitical uncertainties are high, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][117]. - **PVC**: Supported by cost and reduced supply, the market fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][125]. - **Fuel oil**: It maintains a rebound and is still in a high - volatility environment in the short term, with a trend intensity of 0; Low - sulfur fuel oil: It hit the daily limit during the day session, and the price difference between high - and low - sulfur in the overseas spot market decreased marginally, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][128]. Agricultural Products - **Soybean meal**: The market sentiment is strong, but beware of a sharp fall after a rise, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Soybean**: The spot price in the producing area is stable, and the market rebounds and fluctuates, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][163]. - **Corn**: It runs in a fluctuating manner, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][166]. - **Sugar**: Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, it fluctuates strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][173]. - **Cotton**: It is waiting for new drivers, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][174]. - **Eggs**: It fluctuates within a range, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][178]. - **Hogs**: There is passive inventory accumulation, and the spot price is declining, with a trend intensity of -2 [2][181]. - **Peanuts**: Attention should be paid to macro - economic impacts, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][185]. Shipping - **Container Freight Index (European Line)**: Geo - political sentiment dominates, and the fluctuations are large, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][130]. Fibers - **Staple fiber**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. - **Bottle chips**: It fluctuates at a high level, and attention should be paid to upward risks, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][145]. Paper - **Offset printing paper**: It is advisable to wait and see, and the trend intensity is 0 [2][148]. Oils - **Palm oil**: Driven by positive news, the oil market runs strongly, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157]. - **Soybean oil**: Supported by the cost of US soybeans, it fluctuates at a high level in the short term, with a trend intensity of 1 [2][157].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Views - **沪镍**: The external market price first declined and then rebounded, with the 20 - day moving average providing some support. Supply increased in March, domestic inventory continued to accumulate, and the market supply was sufficient. The nickel ore market had a strong bullish sentiment, with a contrast between strong demand in Indonesia and a cold trading market in China due to cost inversion. The nickel - iron price continued to rebound, and the cost line was firm. The stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly, indicating weak demand. New energy vehicle production and sales data met expectations, but there was a large month - on - month decline in the off - season. The overall view was bearish. The basis was positive, the inventory was bearish, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with an upward trend, and the main position was net long but with a decrease in long positions. The conclusion was that Shanghai Nickel 2605 would fluctuate around the 20 - day moving average [2]. - **不锈钢**: The spot stainless - steel price decreased. The short - term nickel ore price was firm, the demand in Indonesia was strong, the nickel - iron price rebounded, and the cost line had strong support. The stainless - steel inventory decreased slightly, and the demand was weak. The overall view was neutral. The basis was positive, the inventory was neutral, the closing price was above the 20 - day moving average with an upward trend. The conclusion was that Stainless Steel 2605 would have a wide - range fluctuation around the 20 - day moving average [4]. 3. Summary by Directory Nickel and Stainless - Steel Price Overview - **Futures**: On March 12, the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 137,160, up 110 from the previous day; the London Nickel was 17,765, up 45; the Stainless - Steel main contract was 14,215, down 10. The nickel index was 138,000, down 100; the cold - rolled index was 13,820, up 29 [9]. - **Spot**: On March 12, SMM1 electrolytic nickel was 140,950, up 1,200; 1 Jinchuan nickel was 144,350, up 1,150; 1 imported nickel was 137,450, up 1,050; nickel beans were 140,050, up 1,050. Cold - rolled 304*2B in Wuxi was 15,100, unchanged; in Foshan was 15,000, down 100; in Hangzhou was 15,100, unchanged; in Shanghai was 15,150, unchanged [9]. Nickel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - As of March 6, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 61,769 tons, with the futures inventory at 53,568 tons, an increase of 978 tons and 437 tons respectively. On March 12, the LME nickel inventory was 285,684, a decrease of 564; the nickel warehouse receipts were 53,904, a decrease of 437; the total inventory was 339,588, a decrease of 1,001 [11][12]. Stainless - Steel Warehouse Receipts and Inventory - On March 6, the Wuxi inventory was 618,600 tons, the Foshan inventory was 398,300 tons, and the national inventory was 1.15 million tons, a decrease of 22,300 tons compared to the previous period. The 300 - series inventory was 716,300 tons, a decrease of 12,600 tons. On March 12, the stainless - steel warehouse receipts were 51,238, a decrease of 176 [16][17]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - **Nickel Ore**: On March 12, the CIF price of laterite nickel ore with Ni1.5% was 80 dollars per wet ton, unchanged; with Ni0.9% was 34.5 dollars per wet ton, unchanged. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang was 14.5 dollars per ton, unchanged; to Tianjin Port was 15.5 dollars per ton, unchanged [19]. - **Nickel - Iron**: The high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) was 1,092.53 yuan per nickel point, up 1.21; the low - nickel wet ton (below 2) was 3,700 yuan per ton, down 50 [19]. Stainless - Steel Production Cost - The traditional cost was 14,254, the scrap - steel production cost was 14,304, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel cost was 18,041 [21]. Nickel Import Cost Calculation - The imported price was converted to 138,806 yuan per ton [24].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile due to concerns about inflation and economic weakness caused by the Middle East conflict, with a tight supply pattern and stable downstream recovery [3][4]. - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong as the supply risk in the Middle East has not been eliminated, and domestic downstream resumption of work will reduce the pressure of ingot accumulation [6][7]. - The lead price may decline further as both domestic and foreign lead ingots have large inventory accumulations, and the downstream consumption has not fully recovered [8][9]. - The zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough and will follow the sector sentiment in a wide - range shock during the conflict [10][11]. - The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. Although there is a strong sentiment to buy tin, the supply - demand is marginally loose and inventory is rising [12][13]. - The nickel price is expected to oscillate. In the medium term, the RKAB quota reduction policy in Indonesia supports the price, while in the short - term, the supply - demand contradiction is limited [14][15]. - The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate in a range. Domestic production is increasing, inventory is decreasing, and potential green - power transformation may benefit the pricing [17]. - The alumina price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. Attention should be paid to potential drivers such as mine production reduction and supply contraction policies [19][20]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern as the market procurement atmosphere has improved, but downstream actual purchases are still limited [22][23]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain strong due to the strong cost, improved demand after the festival, and supply - side disturbances [25][26]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The LME 3M copper contract closed down 0.77% to $12,948/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,860 yuan/ton. LME inventory increased by 275 to 312,350 tons, and the domestic electrolytic copper social inventory decreased slightly [3]. Strategy View - The short - term copper price is expected to be volatile. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 100,000 - 102,200 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M copper is $12,800 - 13,100/ton [4]. Aluminum Market Information - The LME 3M aluminum contract rose 2.2% to $3,533/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 25,325 yuan/ton. The Shanghai aluminum weighted contract position increased, and the social inventory of aluminum ingots increased [6]. Strategy View - The aluminum price is expected to remain strong. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 24,800 - 26,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M aluminum is $3,460 - 3,600/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.34% to 16,636 yuan/ton. The LME 3S lead fell to $1,937.5/ton. The domestic lead ingot social inventory increased [8]. Strategy View - The lead price may decline further as the downstream consumption has not fully recovered and the inventory is accumulating [9]. Zinc Market Information - The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.35% to 24,329 yuan/ton. The LME 3S zinc fell to $3,313.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory increased [10]. Strategy View - The zinc price has a risk of downward breakthrough and will follow the sector sentiment in a wide - range shock during the conflict [11]. Tin Market Information - The Shanghai tin main contract rose 0.19% to 393,500 yuan/ton. The supply is tight, and the downstream demand has not been effectively reflected [12]. Strategy View - The tin price is expected to operate in a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main - contract reference range of 370,000 - 450,000 yuan/ton and the overseas LME tin of $47,000 - 54,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The Shanghai nickel main contract rose 0.69% to 138,100 yuan/ton. The spot price of nickel iron continued to rise [14]. Strategy View - The nickel price is expected to oscillate. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 120,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for the LME 3M nickel is $16,000 - 20,000/ton. It is recommended to sell high and buy low [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate fell 0.74%. The production increased by 3.7% week - on - week, and the inventory decreased by 0.4% [17]. Strategy View - The lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate in a range. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's LC2605 contract is 146,000 - 167,000 yuan/ton [17]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.09% to 2,880 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased, and the spot price in Shandong rose [19]. Strategy View - The alumina price is expected to maintain a wide - range shock. It is recommended to wait and see, with the domestic main - contract AO2605 reference range of 2,800 - 2,950 yuan/ton [20]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.49% to 14,285 yuan/ton. The social inventory decreased [22]. Strategy View - The stainless - steel price is expected to maintain an oscillating upward pattern, with the main - contract reference range of 14,000 - 14,500 yuan/ton [23]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose and then fell. The AD2604 contract rose 0.44% to 23,990 yuan/ton. The inventory decreased [25]. Strategy View - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to remain strong [26].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report The report focuses on the impact of the Iran - US situation on various financial and commodity markets. The tense situation in the Middle East, especially the potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, has led to significant fluctuations in multiple markets. It has affected the prices of precious metals, foreign exchange, stocks, bonds, and various commodities, and different markets show different trends and investment opportunities based on their own fundamentals and geopolitical factors [2][3][12]. Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Comments 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Iran's new supreme leader calls for continued blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a nearly 2% drop in gold prices. The two - year US Treasury yield has been rising, and funds are flowing to more certain crude oil and chemical products, putting pressure on precious metals. Short - term liquidity tightening expectations increase, and precious metals are under pressure [3][12]. - Investment advice: Pay attention to the risk of decline [13]. 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - The US Treasury Secretary says the US Navy will escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and is not worried about the fiscal cost of the Iran war. Trump's positive attitude towards the Iran war reduces the short - term possibility of TACO, weakens market risk appetite, and causes the US dollar to rise [14][15]. - Investment advice: The US dollar index will continue to strengthen [16]. 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - Iran's new leader states that it will not give up revenge and will continue to close the Strait of Hormuz. The US energy minister says the navy is not ready for escort. The short - term situation in the Middle East is still uncertain, and the high oil price has led to inflation concerns and a decrease in the expectation of interest rate cuts this year, putting pressure on the US stock market [17][18]. - Investment advice: The US stock market will continue to be under pressure in the short term, and it is recommended to take a risk - averse and wait - and - see approach [19]. 1.4 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Tax data shows that the sales of high - tech industries in the first two months have increased well. The US has launched a "301" clause investigation against 16 countries and regions. The tense situation between the US and Iran has led to high energy prices, affecting the stock market. Energy and coal - chemical stocks are strong, while technology stocks are weak [20][21]. - Investment advice: For the stock index, it is recommended to go long on dips for the unilateral strategy and go long on IM and short on IF for the hedging arbitrage strategy [22]. 1.5 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted a 24.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net investment of 1.5 billion yuan. The reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates is a short - term disturbance. Inflation is likely to be the main factor in the bond market. As time goes by, the probability of an increase in the oil price center is rising. After the market digests the news of the reduction of inter - bank deposit interest rates, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher than that of long - buying [23]. - Investment advice: After the market digests the positive news, the cost - performance of short - term short - selling is slightly higher [24]. 2. Commodity News and Comments 2.1 Black Metal (Steam Coal) - On March 12, the price of low - calorie steam coal in Indonesia remained stable. The market trading was cold, and the downstream purchasing intention was poor. As the conflict continues, the probability of the domestic port spot price rising after 1 - 2 months is increasing [25]. - Investment advice: Continuously pay attention to overseas energy and oil and gas changes [25]. 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - Due to the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, several iron ore ships originally bound for the Middle East have changed their routes to China. The BHP long - term contract negotiation has affected the market, and the iron ore price has been impacted by factors such as rising crude oil costs and negotiation disturbances in the past week, but the market trading sentiment is not high [26][27]. - Investment advice: It is recommended to wait and see [27]. 2.3 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - From January to February, the production and sales of commercial vehicles increased. As of March 12, the inventory of five major varieties increased slightly, with the inventory of building materials increasing and the inventory of coils starting to decrease slightly. The cost is supported by energy prices, but the high inventory and weak demand limit the upward space of steel prices [28][29]. - Investment advice: Steel prices may fluctuate strongly in the short term, but the fundamentals still limit the upward space [30]. 2.4 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - La Nina is about to end, and El Nino may come in the middle of the year. The increase in crude oil prices, CBOT soybean futures prices, and shipping costs has increased the cost of imported soybeans in China. The market is worried about the shortage of imported soybeans from March to April, and the near - month futures price of soybean meal has reached a new high [5][31][33]. - Investment advice: Soybean meal may remain strong in the short term. Pay attention to the Middle East situation, US biofuel policy, Sino - US relations, China's purchase of US soybeans, domestic reserves, customs policies, and the actual arrival of Brazilian soybeans from March to April [33]. 2.5 Agricultural Products (Corn) - As of March 12, the average inventory of feed enterprises decreased slightly. The supply of corn is expected to increase as the weather warms up, and the port inventory in the south is accumulating. The downstream demand has support, but there are still risks such as concentrated grain sales in the Northeast and potential disturbances from wheat auctions [34]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the market is affected by multiple factors. In the medium and long term, the price is expected to stabilize and rebound, but the upward range is limited. Pay attention to weather, corn reserve purchase policies, and wheat auction dynamics [35]. 2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - The lithium production guidance of Australian Liontown in the 2026 fiscal year remains unchanged. The inventory of lithium carbonate shows different trends in different sectors. The supply is affected by multiple factors, and the demand in March has increased as expected. In the short term, the demand is supported, but there are uncertainties in the long term [36][37][38]. - Investment advice: In the short term, the spot is relatively loose, but the direct demand is still supported. In the long term, there is a high - level logic of new energy replacing old energy. Pay attention to the opportunity of going long on dips after the price correction [39]. 2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Platinum) - The prices of platinum and palladium have declined slightly, mainly following the fluctuations of precious metals. The geopolitical situation is still tense, and the supply and demand fundamentals of platinum and palladium have changed. In the short term, they may fluctuate, and platinum may perform better than palladium [40][41][42]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, use the reverse - spread idea for the month - spread, wait and see for the internal - external spread, and pay attention to the opportunity of going long on platinum and short on palladium in the medium term [42]. 2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - The LME lead shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of lead ingots has increased. The import of refined lead has increased, and the consumption of lead is weak. The price of lead may continue to be weak, but there is support at the cost of recycled lead [43][44]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips in the medium term; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see [45]. 2.9 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - The LME zinc shows a discount, and the domestic social inventory of zinc ingots has increased. The geopolitical situation affects the zinc market, and the domestic supply and demand are weak. The zinc price has priced in the previous disturbances, and the risk of recession trading is increasing [46][48]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term and manage positions well; for the arbitrage strategy, wait and see for the month - spread and maintain the internal - external positive - spread idea in the medium term [49]. 2.10 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - Harmony Gold has achieved copper production, and the environmental assessment of Peru's Trapiche copper project has been approved. The new situation in the Middle East has reignited concerns about rising energy prices, and the short - term copper price will be affected by negative sentiment. The domestic inventory accumulation has slowed down, and the spot is expected to maintain a premium [50][51][53]. - Investment advice: For the unilateral strategy, wait and see in the short term; for the arbitrage strategy, pay attention to the internal - external positive - spread operation [53]. 2.11 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - The LME tin shows a discount, and the domestic warehouse receipts of tin futures have increased. The supply of tin ore has eased in the short term, but there are uncertainties in the long term. The demand is currently weak [54][55][56]. - Investment advice: Affected by the situation in the Middle East, it will mainly operate in a weak and volatile manner [57]. 2.12 Energy Chemicals (Fuel Oil) - The fuel oil inventory in Singapore has increased. The price difference between low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil has reversed, and the low - sulfur fuel oil is stronger. As long as the escort operation in the Strait of Hormuz does not make a breakthrough, the price difference is expected to continue to widen [58][59][60]. - Investment advice: There is still an upward risk in the short - term price of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil [61]. 2.13 Energy Chemicals (PX) - On March 12, the PX price increase expanded. The supply of PX is affected by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and the downstream polyester factories' willingness to reduce production has increased. Due to the shortage of raw materials and the expectation of continuous inventory reduction, PX is expected to remain strong in the short term [62][63]. 2.14 Energy Chemicals (Styrene) - The weekly output of styrene has decreased. The trading logic of styrene is related to the recovery of the Strait of Hormuz. If the flow rate cannot recover to more than 25% of the normal level by the end of March or early April, there is a risk of a short squeeze in April. The long - term impact may lead to an increase in the price center of mid - stream chemicals [64][65][66]. - Investment advice: The high volatility of the absolute price of styrene is expected to continue. In a high - volatility state, it is recommended to use light positions. Be vigilant against the potential short - squeeze risk [66]. 2.15 Energy Chemicals (Float Glass) - This week, the inventory of float glass manufacturers has decreased. The glass market is affected by the rise in crude oil prices, but the fundamentals are under pressure. The follow - up inventory reduction is difficult [67]. - Investment advice: The glass futures may fluctuate greatly in the short term due to the impact of the energy market and its own low price [67]. 2.16 Energy Chemicals (Soda Ash) - As of March 12, the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has decreased slightly. The soda ash market is affected by energy prices, but the supply is still in a state of over - capacity. There is short - term support, and it is recommended to pay attention to short - selling opportunities after the energy price inflection point [68][69]. 2.17 Shipping Index (Container Freight Rate) - COSCO Shipping has stopped all services at a port in Panama. The spot market has both positive and negative factors. The cost of long - term contracts is rising, but the short - term cargo - booking pressure is still large. Affected by the geopolitical situation, the market is expected to fluctuate widely [70][71][72]. - Investment advice: The market is expected to maintain a wide - range volatile pattern [72].