2026年01月20日 国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-绿色金融与新能源 观点与策略 | 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 | 2 | | --- | --- | | 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 | 2 | | 碳酸锂：下游采买有所降温，高位震荡 | 4 | | 工业硅：上游减产扰动，盘面有所反弹 | 6 | | 多晶硅：关注市场消息面影响 | 6 | 国 泰 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 请务必阅读正文之后的免责条款部分 1 期货研究 商 品 研 究 2026 年 1 月 20 日 镍：印尼言论反复扰动情绪，镍价宽幅震荡运行 不锈钢：盘面锚定矿端矛盾，镍铁跟涨支撑重心 张再宇 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021479 zhangzaiyu@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 镍基本面数据 | | | 指标名称 | T | T-1 | T-5 | T-10 | T-22 | T-66 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 沪镍主力（收盘价） | 142,320 | 970 | -1,880 | 8,220 | ...

Group 1: Core Insights - Guangzhou has become the third city in China to achieve a "double trillion" status in consumption and foreign trade during the 14th Five-Year Plan period, following Beijing and Shanghai [1][2] - By 2025, Guangzhou's airport is expected to handle over 83 million passengers, ranking among the top ten globally, while its port is projected to handle nearly 700 million tons of cargo, placing it in the top six worldwide [1] - The city aims to establish six advanced manufacturing clusters with outputs exceeding 100 billion yuan and ten service sectors with added value surpassing 100 billion yuan during the same period [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - As of 2024, only seven cities in China have reached a consumption level of over one trillion yuan, including Guangzhou, which highlights the significance of its economic status [2] - The report indicates that Guangzhou's foreign trade volume also exceeds one trillion yuan, making it one of only seven cities to achieve this milestone [2] Group 3: Strategic Development - Guangzhou's government has outlined plans to enhance its role as a global supply chain innovation center, aiming to strengthen its core urban functions [3][4] - The city is leveraging its geographical advantages, including proximity to the Pearl River Delta manufacturing hub and its status as a major transportation and trade center, to transition from a trade hub to a supply chain management center [4] Group 4: Future Goals - The city has set ambitious goals for the 15th Five-Year Plan, focusing on increasing its visibility and resource allocation capabilities within the global resource network [3] - The government has previously articulated a vision to develop Guangzhou into a world-class city with both historical charm and modern vitality, as outlined in its urban planning documents [3]

个股方面，1月19日，有1619股获融资净买入，净买入金额在5000万元以上的有100股。其中，33股获融 资净买入额超1亿元。江淮汽车获融资净买入额居首，净买入3.62亿元；融资净买入金额居前的还有紫 光股份、精测电子、拓普集团、澜起科技、新泉股份、阳光电源、浙文互联、中国平安等股。 Wind统计显示，1月19日，申万31个一级行业中有10个行业获融资净买入，其中，汽车行业获融资净买 入额居首，当日净买入7.58亿元；获融资净买入居前的行业还有银行、电力设备、非银金融、商贸零 售、有色金属等。 ...

每日研选 2026年1月以来，全A成交额屡创新高，市场局部呈现过热特征。机构普遍认为，"点刹"不是"熄火"，随着监管治理水平的提升，市场有望实现更为健康长 远的发展。在无风险收益逐步下沉、资本市场改革持续推进以及中国经济转型的大背景下，由转型新动能驱动的行情仍具备较大的发展空间，看好景气行 业细分龙头。 短期内，1月下旬年报预告密集披露，叠加监管层通过上调融资保证金比例等措施引导市场理性回归，指数上行动能趋于平缓，预计以震荡消化为主。显 著特征是行业主线切换加快，前期热门主题板块降温，资金向具备基本面支撑的领域迁移。在此环境下，建议投资者避免盲目追高，以逢低布局为主，聚 焦业绩确定性机会。 放眼中期，市场核心支撑逻辑持续强化。当前市场处于政策宽松、产业升级与资金共振的行情周期，与历史上"转型驱动行情"启动阶段具备相似性。政策 层面，央行定向降息打开宽松空间，资本市场改革持续深化，引导长期资金入市；资金层面，保险保费"开门红"、居民存款带来增量资金，公募基金发行 回暖；产业层面，AI算力、新能源、有色金属等领域供需格局改善，形成明确景气主线。尽管未来三个月指数涨势可能趋缓，但行情逻辑未被破坏，若 增量资金延续、 ...

凯投宏观英国首席经济学家保罗·戴尔斯表示，目前英国经济每季度仅增长0.2%至0.3%，若冲击一次性 到来，可能引发经济衰退。 有经济学家警告称，如果美国总统特朗普迅速推进新的关税威胁，英国将面临经济衰退风险。根据世界 银行对英国经济增长的评估，如果特朗普将关税自6月起提高至25%，英国经济可能遭受216亿英镑的损 失。据凯投宏观测算，英国GDP将下降0.3%至0.75%。 2026年1月19日，受美欧贸易关系紧张影响，避险情绪大幅升温，资金回流黄金白银等贵金属，金价早 盘触及4698美元后小幅回落，截至收盘，COMEX黄金期货收涨1.77%报4676.7美元/盎司，黄金ETF华 夏(518850)涨1.58%，黄金股ETF(159562)涨2.29%，有色金属ETF基金(516650)涨0.38%。 相关分析指出，特朗普总统任期内，美国的关税政策非常频繁且具有反复性，涉及多个方面，包括与地 缘敏感地区的矿产金属贸易关系。尽管2025年已经表现出紧张和博弈加剧的态势，但预计2026年这些关 系仍将存在反复，需要持续关注。近期华尔街频繁上调黄金目标价，其中美银和摩根大通认为金价有望 最终触及6000美元。 ...

【环球网财经综合报道】日前，工信部等五部门联合部署开展零碳工厂建设，目标是到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光 伏、电子电器等行业培育一批零碳工厂；到2030年，逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石化化工等传统高载能行业。 《巴西商业价值报》此前发文称，中国的绿色工厂在绿色制造过程中发挥着重要作用。据官方数据，中国绿色工厂的 产值占全国制造业产值的20%以上。目前，中国已培育出约6430家国家级绿色工厂。 报道还提到，中国工业信息化部和中国银行此前共同发布通知，旨在建立和改善绿色金融工作机制，鼓励金融机构开 发支持绿色制造的金融产品，增加对能源节约、低碳发展、水资源保护、环保和绿色工厂资源利用等相关领域的投 资，支持绿色工厂。 联合新闻网也报道称，工信部部长李乐成表示，"十五五"时期，将锚定实现新型工业化推动高品质发展，推进制造业 智慧化、绿色化、融合化发展，保持制造业合理比重；其中，推动传统产业焕新作为第一项重点工作，李乐成提出实 施"人工智慧+"行动，探索创建一批零碳工厂和零碳园区。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - **Financial Markets**: Geopolitical risks, such as Trump's tariff policies and statements regarding Greenland, along with the upcoming Cook hearing, are influencing market risk - appetite. These factors are causing increased volatility in precious metals, US stock index futures, and other financial instruments. For example, the uncertainty around the Cook hearing and Trump's actions are leading to concerns about the Fed's independence and future inflation [11][14]. - **Commodity Markets**: Different commodities are facing various supply - demand situations. In the agricultural sector, South American soybean production is expected to be bountiful, while in the metal and energy sectors, factors like production changes, inventory levels, and geopolitical events are affecting prices. For instance, the potential release of Russian gasoline exports and the production adjustments of First Quantum Minerals in the copper market [32][52][45]. 3. Summaries by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Financial News and Reviews 3.1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - **News**: Powell will attend the Cook hearing. Geopolitical risks and Trump's tariff policies have increased market risk aversion, driving up precious metals prices [11]. - **Investment Advice**: Short - term precious metals may experience increased volatility. With the gold - silver ratio at a low level, there are opportunities to go long [12]. 3.1.2 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Powell's attendance at the Cook case hearing and Trump's ambiguous statement about Greenland are increasing geopolitical risks. The potential dismissal of Cook may raise concerns about the Fed's independence [13][14]. - **Investment Advice**: During the US stock earnings season, volatility is expected to increase, and the US stock market is likely to oscillate at high levels [15]. 3.1.3 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - **News**: Premier Li Qiang held a symposium, emphasizing high - quality development and the implementation of more active fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. China's GDP in Q4 2025 increased by 4.5% year - on - year, and the narrowing of price declines has boosted nominal GDP growth [16][18]. - **Investment Advice**: Hold long positions in stock index futures [19]. 3.1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - **News**: December economic data was mostly below expectations, with a pattern of weakening overall, strong supply and weak demand, and domestic demand weaker than external demand. The bond market is expected to be volatile, and the probability of continued weakening after the oscillation is relatively high [20][22]. - **Investment Advice**: Be cautious when chasing up or betting on rebounds. Consider short - selling opportunities during rebounds [23]. 3.2 Commodity News and Reviews 3.2.1 Black Metals (Coking Coal/Coke) - **News**: The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is stable with a slight upward trend. Downstream steel mills have not responded to the coke price increase proposed by coke enterprises. Short - term spot prices are supported by downstream replenishment, but the upward momentum in the futures market is limited [24]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations [24]. 3.2.2 Black Metals (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - **News**: In 2025, China's infrastructure investment decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, and real estate investment decreased by 17.2%. The terminal demand for steel products remains weak, and the fundamentals do not support a significant rebound in steel prices [25][28][29]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt an oscillatory approach to steel prices. Hedge inventory at high prices if there is a rebound [30]. 3.2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - **News**: As of last Thursday, the Brazilian 25/26 soybean harvest rate was 2%. South American soybean production is expected to be abundant. Domestic soybean meal inventory has decreased but remains at a historically high level [31][32]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect weak oscillations in domestic and international futures prices [33]. 3.2.4 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lead) - **News**: Lead inventories in five major social warehouses increased. The low - inventory risk has been alleviated, and the fundamentals are weakening [34][35]. - **Investment Advice**: Consider short - selling opportunities at high prices. Adopt a wait - and - see approach for arbitrage [37]. 3.2.5 Non - Ferrous Metals (Zinc) - **News**: The zinc price is oscillating. Social inventories are rising, but the absolute increase is not large. Geopolitical risks need to be watched out for [38][39]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach for short - term single - side trading, and do not chase short positions. Wait and see for both monthly spread and internal - external arbitrage [39]. 3.2.6 Non - Ferrous Metals (Lithium Carbonate) - **News**: The second - phase project of Qingtao Energy's solid - state battery in Chengdu is progressing smoothly. The futures trading rules of lithium carbonate have been adjusted. The demand side is showing signs of strength, but the price transmission issue needs attention [40][41][42]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices after the trading volume and volatility stabilize [43]. 3.2.7 Non - Ferrous Metals (Copper) - **News**: South Mining Group focuses on gold and copper investments. First Quantum Minerals has lowered its copper production guidance. Geopolitical risks and macro - economic uncertainties are affecting copper prices [44][45][47]. - **Investment Advice**: Adopt a short - term wait - and - see approach. Look for long - position opportunities at low prices in the medium term. Wait and see for arbitrage [48]. 3.2.8 Non - Ferrous Metals (Tin) - **News**: The LME tin price is in a contango. The Shanghai Futures Exchange has adjusted the tin futures delivery warehouses. Supply uncertainties exist, and demand is weak [49][50][51]. - **Investment Advice**: Pay attention to December customs data, processing fees in Yunnan refineries, and the recovery of consumption [51]. 3.2.9 Energy and Chemicals (Crude Oil) - **News**: Russia may lift the gasoline export ban in February. As the Iranian situation cools down, the risk premium of oil prices is expected to decrease [52][53]. - **Investment Advice**: The short - term upward driving force for oil prices is weakening [54]. 3.2.10 Energy and Chemicals (Liquefied Petroleum Gas) - **News**: The weekly production of domestic liquefied petroleum gas increased slightly. The external market is relatively strong, but the upward space is limited [55]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect price sideways oscillations [56]. 3.2.11 Energy and Chemicals (Asphalt) - **News**: Asphalt refinery inventories decreased, while social inventories increased. Terminal demand is weakening, and the market is expected to be weak before the Spring Festival [56]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term weak oscillations in asphalt prices [57]. 3.2.12 Energy and Chemicals (Styrene) - **News**: Pure benzene and styrene prices are rising. The increase in styrene is due to unexpected maintenance and export growth. Attention should be paid to geopolitical risks and US tariff policies [60]. - **Investment Advice**: Focus on long - position opportunities at low prices, but beware of risks such as excessive pure benzene imports and weak terminal purchasing [61]. 3.2.13 Energy and Chemicals (Urea) - **News**: The demand for urea from a sample of compound fertilizer producers in Shandong decreased. Urea production is expected to increase, and inventories are decreasing at a slower pace. Policy and demand factors are influencing prices [62][63]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect short - term oscillations in urea prices. The average price may decline in the next two weeks. Consider long - position opportunities in the 05 contract after the demand recovers [64]. 3.2.14 Energy and Chemicals (PVC) - **News**: The domestic PVC powder market price is slightly weak. The export tax - rebate policy will be cancelled in April, and domestic demand is expected to weaken before the Spring Festival [65][66]. - **Investment Advice**: Be bearish on PVC in the short term [66]. 3.2.15 Energy and Chemicals (Caustic Soda) - **News**: The price of caustic soda in Shandong decreased. Supply is abundant, and demand is weak. Inventories are high, and the market is under pressure [67][68][69]. - **Investment Advice**: Expect the caustic soda market to be under pressure before the Spring Festival [69].

待债券发行完成后，经扣除经办人佣金及就发售应付的其他估计开支后，债券发行所得款项净额将约为 11.88亿美元。公司拟将该等所得款项用于支持公司境外资源项目的扩产、优化及持续性资本开支，增 强公司营运资金灵活性及一般公司用途。 智通财经APP讯，洛阳钼业(603993.SH)发布公告，2026年1月19日(收市时间后)，公司拟根据债务融资 工具一般性授权及发行股份一般性授权，通过境外间接控股子公司CMOC CapitalLimited(简称"发行 人"或"CMOC Capital")发行12亿美元有担保的可转换为公司H股的公司债券，公司将为间接控股子公司 CMOC Capital发行可转债提供担保。根据条款及条件所载之情况，该等债券可按每股H股28.03港元的 初始转换价(可予调整)转换为H股。 假设按初始转换价每股H股28.03港元悉数转换债券，则债券将转换为约3.34亿股H股，相当于公司于公 告日期现有已发行H股数目约8.48%及公司现有已发行股份数目约1.56%，以及本公司悉数转换债券后的 经扩大已发行H股数目约7.82%及公司经扩大已发行股份数目约1.54%。转换股份将悉数缴足，并在各方 面与于相关登记 ...

A股成交额创历史新高后，市场进入量能冲高后的震荡调整阶段，板块轮动与资金博弈加剧。随着2026 年春季行情换挡，后续市场将如何演绎？投资者该如何把握布局机会？请看机构最新研判。 A股成交额创历史新高后，市场进入量能冲高后的震荡调整阶段，板块轮动与资金博弈加剧。随着2026 年春季行情换挡，后续市场将如何演绎？投资者该如何把握布局机会？请看机构最新研判。 放眼中期，市场核心支撑逻辑持续强化。当前市场处于政策宽松、产业升级与资金共振的行情周期，与 历史上"转型驱动行情"启动阶段具备相似性。政策层面，央行定向降息打开宽松空间，资本市场改革持 续深化，引导长期资金入市；资金层面，保险保费"开门红"、居民存款带来增量资金，公募基金发行回 暖；产业层面，AI算力、新能源、有色金属等领域供需格局改善，形成明确景气主线。尽管未来三个 月指数涨势可能趋缓，但行情逻辑未被破坏，若增量资金延续、政策预期稳定，市场有望重回强势状 态。 展望2026年，机构普遍看好A股"转型驱动行情"延续，核心逻辑包括三方面：一是经济转型与产业升级 加速，AI技术革命、能源转型等带来新兴产业增量需求，传统产业"反内卷"推动供给优化，共同构筑盈 利增长 ...

1月19日消息，工业和信息化部、国家发展改革委、生态环境部、国务院国资委、国家能源局近日联合 印发《关于开展零碳工厂建设工作的指导意见》，深挖工业和信息化领域节能降碳潜力，带动重点行业 领域减碳增效和绿色低碳转型。其中，提出2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好标杆引领。 《指导意见》主要目标为：实施分阶段梯度培育，优先选择脱碳需求迫切、能源消费以电力为主、脱碳 难度相对较小的行业先行探索，逐步完善相关规划设计、能源供应、工艺技术、管理运营和商业模式， 待条件成熟后再向碳排放量强度高、脱碳难度大的行业逐步推进。2026年起，遴选一批零碳工厂，做好 标杆引领。到2027年，在汽车、锂电池、光伏、电子电器、轻工、机械、算力设施等行业领域，培育建 设一批零碳工厂。到2030年，逐步拓展至钢铁、有色金属、石化化工、建材、纺织等行业领域，探索传 统高载能产业脱碳新路径。 零碳工厂建设是指通过技术创新、结构调整和管理优化等减排措施，实现厂区内二氧化碳排放的持续降 低、逐步趋向于近零的过程。工业和信息化部节能与综合利用司有关负责人提出，零碳工厂不是绝对 的"零"二氧化碳排放，而是在当前技术经济条件允许下，实现应减尽减并持续改 ...