路透援引印度政府消息人士称，印度企业将不会购买由贸易商供应的俄罗斯石油公司和卢克石油的原 油。很难预测企业何时会下新的俄罗斯石油订单。 （文章来源：新华财经） ...

一场打了三年的战争，终于把俄罗斯的经济问题彻底暴露出来了。 很多人可能没想到，曾经靠着军工生产"吊命"的俄罗斯经济，如今也开始亮起了红灯。而普京，这个曾经意气风发的强人领导人，如今也站到了一个必须做 出艰难选择的十字路口。 那到底，俄罗斯到底怎么了？普京又面临着怎样的困局？ 战争初期，俄罗斯的军工产业可以说是一匹"黑马"。 在数万亿卢布的国防预算支持下，坦克、装甲车、各种武器装备源源不断地生产，成了拉动经济增长的重要引擎。 但到了2025年，情况开始急转直下。 根据俄罗斯联邦统计局的数据，2025年9月，金属制品的产能竟然同比下降了1.6%。别小看这个数字，这可是自战争爆发以来，第一次出现负增长！ 要知道，就在8月份，这项指标还暴涨了21.2%。而前两年，更是分别增长了26.4%和31.6%。这一下子，从高速前进变成了急刹车。 同样的，军工产品也开始"吃不消"了。坦克、步战车这些装备的产量增速也一落千丈。9月份的增长率只有6%，比上个月的61.2%直接"腰斩"还不止。 这就意味着，过去支撑俄罗斯经济的那块"军工大旗"，现在也扛不动了。 军工掉链子，整个工业自然也跟着"熄火"。 工业总产值在9月份只涨了0.3% ...

综合：广州日报、央视财经 记者27日从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽、柴油价格10月28日0时下调，每吨分别下调265元和255元。 全国平均来看，92号汽油、95号汽油、0号柴油每升分别降0.21元、0.22元、0.22元。用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花10.5元。 来源：哈尔滨交通广播 ...

原油日报 | 2025-10-28 关注中美元首谈判进展 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所12月交货的轻质原油期货价格下跌19美分，收于每桶61.31美元，跌幅为0.31%；12月交货的伦 敦布伦特原油期货价格下跌32美分，收于每桶65.62美元，跌幅为0.49%。SC原油主力合约收跌0.75%，报465元/桶。 2、 伊拉克石油部长周一在一场石油会议上表示，伊拉克正就其欧佩克的配额展开谈判，目标是在其每日550万桶 的可用产能范围内进行重新评审。他补充称，尽管伊拉克具备更高的产能，但仍一直遵守当前每日440万桶的欧佩 克配额。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 一位美国高级外交官驳斥了匈牙利的论点，即该国因地处内陆而只能依赖俄罗斯石油。随着华盛顿加大对布 达佩斯的压力，美国要求其寻找替代供应商。与许多在2022年俄乌冲突爆发后努力降低对俄能源依赖的欧盟盟友 不同，匈牙利却走上了相反的道路。现在，布达佩斯的石油和大部分天然气进口几乎完全依赖莫斯科，这种依赖 如今可能构成能源安全风险。上周，美国对俄罗斯最大的石油生产商实施制裁。同一周，欧盟也决定对两家主要 俄罗斯石油公司实施全面交易禁令。（来源：Blo ...

根据新华社消息，10月22日晚间，美国财政部长贝森特宣布美国对俄罗斯最大的两家石油企业，俄罗斯 石油公司(RoSneft)和卢克石油公司(Lukoil)实施新一轮制裁，以敦促俄罗斯与乌克兰立即停火。俄罗斯 石油公司和卢克石油公司每日出口石油310万桶/天，约占俄罗斯原油出口量的一半，印度作为俄罗斯原 油在亚洲主要买家，此次制裁受到直接影响。 智通财经APP获悉，国泰海通发布研报称，近日，美国财政部长贝森特宣布美国对俄罗斯最大的两家石 油企业，俄罗斯石油公司(RoSneft)和卢克石油公司(Lukoil)实施新一轮制裁，以敦促俄罗斯与乌克兰立 即停火。此次美国与欧美对俄的新一轮制裁更多体现情绪端扰动，美国尚未宣布对俄罗斯原油实施制裁 的时间节奏，且欧盟对俄罗斯成品油的依赖更为强烈。另外，新地缘事件再次发酵，从基本面看，原油 仍然面临供需宽松的状态，即便出现阶段性俄罗斯、委内瑞拉的供给端断供，OPEC持续的增产仍然有 望弥补缺口。 国泰海通主要观点如下： 美国和欧盟对俄罗斯的制裁是导致油价上涨的主因 风险提示 此外，欧盟发布对俄的第19轮制裁方案，能源领域包括2027年起禁止液化天然气的进口，收紧俄罗斯两 家大型 ...

中国港口原油商业库存（万吨） 日本商业原油库存（万桶） 山东独立炼厂原油厂内库存（万吨） 中国汽油库存（万吨） 中国独立炼厂汽油产销率（%） 中国柴油库存（万吨） 中国独立炼厂柴油产销率（%） EIA美国汽油库存（千桶） EIA美国柴油库存（千桶） 中国原油加工量（万桶/日） 注:数据来源于Wind，钢联数据，冠通研究整理 免责声明： 引用、转载、刊发，须注明出处为冠通期货股份有限公司。 冠通期货研究咨询部 苏妙达，执业资格证号F03104403/Z0018167 联系方式：010-85356553 2000 2200 2400 2600 2800 3000 3200 3400 3600 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000 10000 1/1 2/1 3/1 4/1 5/1 6/1 7/1 8/1 9/1 10/1 11/1 12/1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 200 250 300 ...

前言 华盛顿近日投下了一枚重磅炸弹：特朗普政府宣布，对俄罗斯两大能源巨头——俄罗斯石油公司和卢克 石油公司实施重大制裁。 这可不是以前那种不痛不痒的"象征性"制裁，用一位英国皇家联合服务研究所专家的话说，美国这"24 小时内的行动，远超欧盟过去六个月的努力"。 为什么这么说？因为这一招，是直奔"钱袋子"去的。 "锁喉"：瞄准美元命脉 这次制裁的核心，是试图将这两家俄罗斯"现金牛"企业，踢出全球美元金融体系。 国际石油贸易绝大多数是用美元结算的，一旦你被禁止使用美元，就等于你卖出去的石油，收不回最有 价值的钱。 特朗普政府的官方说法很明确：俄罗斯依靠化石燃料（石油和天然气）的巨额收入，在乌克兰维持战 争，要和平就必须先切断这根"供血动脉",逻辑很简单：没钱，还怎么打仗？ 此举一出，全球油价应声上涨。俄罗斯面临着巨大的出口压力，而乌克兰似乎也因此在谈判桌上，多了 一些看不见的筹码。 一张"一石二鸟"的牌 如果认为这仅仅是为了"促和"，那恐怕就把事情想简单了，这更像是一场"一石二鸟"的精准布局。 第一只"鸟"，是地缘政治，也就是乌克兰的"和平机会"。 这没得说，是摆在明面上的理由，通过经济"锁喉"，迫使莫斯科在战场 ...

印度的"能源经济账" 要理解印度为何如此强硬，必须先理清它背后的"能源经济账"。印度每年需要进口85%的原油，作为全 球第三大石油消费国，印度每天的石油消耗量极为庞大，足够绕孟买港口几圈。过去，印度主要从中东 和南美地区进口石油，但自从2022年俄乌冲突爆发后，俄罗斯的原油成了印度的新宠。并不是印度故意 与美国对着干，而是俄罗斯油价实在太有诱惑力——比中东油便宜10到15美元每桶。虽然这看起来是一 个不大的差价，但印度每年要进口上亿桶原油，光是购买俄罗斯原油，印度每年就能省下超过40亿美 元。这个数目不仅足够修建好几所大学，还能补贴大量农民的农机用油，对于印度来说，这无疑是"救 命钱"。 更为重要的是，俄罗斯已成为印度最大原油供应国，根据2024年9月的统计，俄罗斯每天向印度供应160 万桶原油，占印度总进口量的34%。简而言之，每进口三桶石油，就有一桶来自俄罗斯。如果印度按照 美国的要求减少俄油进口，面临的将是严重的能源供应中断风险。中东油价格昂贵，南美油运输成本又 高，在短期内根本找不到替代俄罗斯的供应来源。此外，印度还是亚洲重要的炼油产品出口国，俄油的 低价帮助印度大幅降低炼油成本，使得出口的柴油和航空 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to be volatile. Specifically, the price of crude oil is expected to return to a volatile state due to OPEC+'s production increase plan and concerns about weak demand; the prices of fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and polyvinyl chloride are also expected to be volatile due to various factors such as supply and demand and cost [1][2][3][4][5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, oil prices fluctuated weakly. The WTI December contract closed down $0.19 to $61.31 per barrel, a decline of 0.31%. The Brent December contract closed down $0.32 to $65.62 per barrel, a decline of 0.49%. The SC2512 closed at 464.9 yuan per barrel, down 3.5 yuan per barrel, a decline of 0.75%. OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply. The market's concern about weak demand continues to suppress oil prices, and it is expected that oil prices will return to a volatile state in the short term [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Monday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 1.28% at 2,842 yuan per ton; the main low-sulfur fuel oil contract LU2512 closed up 1.8% at 3,275 yuan per ton. Due to weak downstream demand and sufficient recent supply, the Asian low-sulfur market structure has weakened. The Asian high-sulfur market is expected to remain stable. In the short term, the absolute prices of FU and LU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Asphalt**: On Monday, the main asphalt contract BU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3,295 yuan per ton. From the perspective of refinery production schedules in early November, the supply pressure will be alleviated. In the short term, the absolute price of BU will rebound following the cost side, and attention should be paid to the fluctuations of oil prices under the influence of macro factors [2] - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,616 yuan per ton yesterday, up 2.17%; EG2601 closed at 4,109 yuan per ton yesterday, up 0.78%. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Zhejiang and Jiangsu are generally good, with an average production and sales estimate of about 70%. The fundamentals of TA and EG have improved. In the short term, the prices of polyester products are expected to be volatile [2][3] - **Rubber**: On Monday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 rose 45 yuan per ton to 15,380 yuan per ton, and the main NR contract rose 35 yuan per ton to 12,540 yuan per ton. The inventory of natural rubber in Qingdao has decreased. Macroscopically, the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations have reached a preliminary consensus, and it is expected that rubber prices will be strongly volatile [3] - **Methanol**: On Monday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,230 yuan per ton. In the short term, the port supply is still relatively high, and the short-term rebound of crude oil has a positive impact on the valuation of chemicals. Therefore, the performance of methanol may tend to be volatile [4] - **Polyolefin**: On Monday, the mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 6,560 - 6,650 yuan per ton. In the short term, the production will remain high, and the marginal increase in demand will gradually decline. The short-term rebound of crude oil supports the valuation, but the fundamental driving force is weakening. It is expected that polyolefin prices will enter a volatile stage [4] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: On Monday, the price of the PVC market in East China fluctuated slightly. The supply remains at a high level, the domestic demand has slowed down, and the export is expected to be weak. The price has a demand for phased repair, but the rebound height is limited under the suppression of high inventory [5] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on October 28, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes and historical quantiles [6] 3.3 Market News - Market participants said that OPEC+ tends to moderately increase production in December to regain market share. Eight member countries have increased their production targets by a total of 2.7 million barrels per day through a series of monthly production increases, accounting for about 2.5% of global supply [10] - Morgan Stanley said that the fundamentals of the oil market are expected to return to balance from an oversupply state in the second half of next year [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report provides the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, paraxylene, and bottle chips [12][13][14][15][16][18][19][20][22][23] - **Main Contract Basis**: The report provides the basis charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low-sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [24][26][30][32][33][36] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, European line container shipping index, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, and natural rubber [38][40][43][46][49][50][53] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil internal and external markets, crude oil B - W spread, fuel oil high - low sulfur spread, fuel oil/asphalt ratio, BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [55][59][61][62] - **Production Profits**: The report provides the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow, PP production profit, and LLDPE production profit [64][66] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, and their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and work experiences [69][70][71][72]

Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing downward pressure due to persistent concerns over weak demand, leading to a slight decline in international oil prices on October 27 [1] - OPEC is inclined to moderately increase production in December as part of its ongoing monthly production increase plan aimed at regaining market share [1][2] - The U.S. has imposed new sanctions on Russian oil companies, which, along with unexpected U.S. demand, is supporting oil prices [1][3] Supply and Demand Dynamics - There is a supply surplus pressure as OPEC has significantly increased production over the past two months, exceeding market absorption capacity, resulting in Brent oil prices dropping to a four-year low [2] - Structural weakness in demand is evident, with the ongoing trade war impacting industrial oil demand, U.S. manufacturing PMI falling below the growth line, and lower-than-expected operating rates in Chinese refineries [2] Major Oil Producers' Strategies - OPEC is transitioning from being a production controller to a technical standard setter, aiming to reshape pricing power through expectation management and geopolitical coordination [2][4] - Russia is adapting by diversifying its market and responding to sanctions, planning to establish a national oil benchmark index to enhance market autonomy [2][3] - Iraq is negotiating its OPEC quota with a goal to reassess its daily production capacity of 5.5 million barrels, maintaining current exports at 3.6 million barrels per day [2] Geopolitical Influences - The U.S.-China trade agreement has established a "substantial framework," but market participants remain cautious about the actual impact on global supply [3] - Historical data indicates that U.S.-China energy trade is significantly affected by tariff policies, with projections showing that U.S. crude oil imports by China could drop to zero by June 2025 [3] Future Competitive Dimensions - The future competition in oil soft power will focus on the ability to reconstruct rules, with OPEC transitioning to a technical standard setter and gradually increasing production to reshape market expectations [3][4] - The oil industry faces challenges from technological homogenization and capital valuation dilemmas, necessitating a reconstruction of the industrial ecosystem [4] - Countries need to effectively convert resource potential into rule-making, value innovation, and alliance management capabilities to secure advantageous positions in the global energy transition [4]