每经编辑｜何小桃 美国对伊朗动手，全球资本市场埋单。 今天（6月23日）亚太股市开盘多数走低。 截至发稿，台湾加权指数跌1.58%，日经225指数跌0.3%，富时新加坡海峡时报指数跌0.35%，韩国KOSPI指数得0.39%，澳大利亚普通股指数得0.36%，印 度孟买SENSEX指数跌0.61%，印尼雅加达综合指数跌1.35%。 | 台湾加权 | 21698.01 | -1.58% | -347.73 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | TWII | | | | | 日经 225 | 38287.21 | -0.30% | -116.02 | | N225 | | | | | 富时新加坡海峡时报 3869.86 | | -0.35% | -13.57 | | STI | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI | 3010.12 | -0.39% | -11.72 | | KS11 | | | | | 澳大利亚普通股 8685.90 | | -0.43% | -37.60 | | AORD | | | | | 韩国 KOSPI200 403.85 | | -0.36% | -1.47 | | ...

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The records primarily discuss the impact of the escalating Israel-Iran conflict on the oil and gas industry, logistics, and various sectors including aviation, express delivery, and chemicals [1][2][4][5][9]. Core Insights and Arguments Oil and Gas Industry - The Israel-Iran conflict has intensified following U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, with the Strait of Hormuz being a critical oil transport route, accounting for 20% of global oil liquid consumption, approximately 20 million barrels per day [1][2][3]. - If the Strait of Hormuz is blocked, oil prices could surge to $120-$130 per barrel, leading to energy inflation and significant impacts on various sectors, particularly aviation [1][2][5]. - VLCC (Very Large Crude Carrier) freight rates have increased dramatically from 22,000 yuan to over 50,000 yuan, indicating that freight performance has outpaced stock price movements for companies like COSCO Shipping Energy [1][4]. Aviation Sector - A potential rise in oil prices to $130 per barrel would significantly affect airline stocks, as fuel surcharges may not fully cover increased costs, potentially suppressing demand [5][6]. - Historical data suggests that airline stock prices are more influenced by supply-demand dynamics rather than temporary spikes in fuel prices, indicating a need for strategic adjustments in investment [6]. Express Delivery Industry - The express delivery sector is experiencing a reduction in price wars, with companies like YTO Express raising prices, indicating a stabilization in pricing pressures [7]. - The application of unmanned vehicles in last-mile delivery is advancing, reducing costs by 0.6 to 0.8 yuan per parcel, which is expected to enhance operational efficiency [7][8]. Chemical Industry - The chemical products price index has risen to 4,210 points, driven by increasing oil prices, although demand seasonality limits the ability to pass on costs, leading to heightened cost pressures [9][10]. - The polyester POY price has increased by 3.6%, but the profit margins are narrowing due to seasonal demand constraints [10]. Fertilizer and Agricultural Chemicals - The price of potassium fertilizer has surged due to supply constraints from Israel, with domestic prices rising by 80 yuan to 3,040 yuan, indicating further potential for price increases [12]. - The pesticide sector is witnessing price increases, particularly for chlorantraniliprole, which has risen by 80,000 yuan per ton due to supply chain disruptions [11]. Metals Market - Gold prices have continued to decline, but the risk premium may rise due to the severity of the conflict, with potential for prices to reach around $3,400 per ounce [16]. - Cobalt prices are expected to rise following the extension of export bans from the Democratic Republic of Congo, which holds a significant share of global cobalt production [17]. Coal Industry - The coal sector is experiencing mixed performance, with a decline in demand but potential for increased utilization in coal chemical processes due to high oil prices [19][20]. - Recent price increases in coal, particularly in the power sector, suggest a potential rebound in demand as electricity consumption rises [22]. Other Important Insights - The geopolitical landscape, particularly the U.S. sanctions on Iran and OPEC's production adjustments, will significantly influence global oil supply and pricing dynamics [25][26]. - Investment strategies should focus on companies with strong dividend yields and those positioned to benefit from rising commodity prices, such as coal and energy firms [23][28]. This summary encapsulates the critical developments and insights from the conference call records, highlighting the interconnectedness of geopolitical events and their implications across various industries.

脂肪酰氯是脂肪酸的高反应性衍生物，其中羧基 (-COOH) 被氯原子 (-COCl) 取代。它们的通式通常为 R-COCl ， 其中 R 为饱和或不饱和烃链（通常为 C8-C18 ，源自天然脂肪或油）。这类化合物广泛用于有机合成，用于生产酯 类、酰胺类和聚合物，并广泛应用于表面活性剂、药物、塑料和化妆品。由于其反应性强（尤其与水和亲核试剂 反应），因此需要小心处理。 根据 QYResearch 最新调研报告显示，预计 2 031 年全球 脂肪族酰氯 市场规模将达到 24 亿美元，未来几年年复合 增长率 CAGR 为 4.2 % 。 脂肪族酰氯 ，全球市场总体规模 全球 脂肪族酰氯 市场前 17 强生产商排名及市场占有率（基于 2 024 年调研数据；目前最新数据以本公司最新调研 数据为准） 全球范围内， 脂肪族酰氯 主要生产商包括巴斯夫， CABB Chemicals ， Italmatch Chemicals 和平原信达化工等， 其中前五大厂商占有大约 60% 的市场份额。目前，全球核心厂商主要分布在欧洲、中国和印度 。 脂肪族酰氯 ，全球市场规模，按产品类型细分，中碳链型处于主导地位 就产品类型而言，目前 ...

Agricultural Products Market - The national market price of edible agricultural products decreased by 0.5% from the previous week [1] - Wholesale prices of poultry products slightly declined, with eggs and white-cut chicken decreasing by 2.6% and 0.5% respectively [1] - Average wholesale prices of six types of fruits saw a slight decrease, with watermelon, banana, and citrus dropping by 3.1%, 2.2%, and 1.7% respectively [1] - Overall wholesale prices of meat decreased, with pork priced at 20.32 yuan per kilogram, down by 0.6%, while beef and lamb fell by 0.5% and 0.1% respectively [1] - Average wholesale price of 30 types of vegetables remained stable at 4.14 yuan per kilogram, with certain vegetables like green beans, pumpkin, and bitter melon decreasing by 6.9%, 5.3%, and 4.1% respectively [1] - Wholesale prices of aquatic products remained stable, with carp, large yellow croaker, and silver carp decreasing by 0.7%, 0.6%, and 0.2% respectively [1] - Grain and oil wholesale prices showed slight fluctuations, with rice and rapeseed oil decreasing by 0.2% and 0.1%, while soybean oil and peanut oil increased by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively [1] Production Materials Market - Rubber prices saw a slight increase, with natural rubber and synthetic rubber rising by 1.2% and 0.4% respectively [2] - Prices of basic chemical raw materials generally increased, with methanol, sulfuric acid, and polypropylene rising by 1.2%, 0.5%, and 0.1% respectively, while soda ash decreased by 0.6% [2] - Wholesale prices of finished oil slightly increased, with 0 diesel, 92 gasoline, and 95 gasoline all rising by 0.1% [2] - Prices of non-ferrous metals showed slight fluctuations, with aluminum and copper increasing by 1.1% and 0.9%, while zinc decreased by 1.9% [2] - Steel prices remained stable, with specific types like channel steel, ordinary medium plate, and welded steel pipe priced at 3585 yuan, 3722 yuan, and 3775 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Coal prices continued to decline, with coking coal, No. 2 smokeless lump coal, and thermal coal priced at 930 yuan, 1144 yuan, and 750 yuan per ton, decreasing by 0.9%, 0.1%, and 0.1% respectively [2] - Fertilizer prices generally decreased, with urea dropping by 1.2%, while compound fertilizers remained stable [2]

Group 1: Policy Financial Tools - Historical policy financial tools were introduced as counter-cyclical measures to stabilize the economy and enhance local investment capabilities, characterized by low costs, quick deployment, and market-oriented operations [1][20][21] - New policy financial tools are expected to focus more on technology innovation, consumption, and foreign trade, with significant attention on their scale, leverage effects, and issuance rhythm [1][22] Group 2: Banking Sector - The loan interest rate is expected to decline significantly slower in 2025, with the LPR reform leading to a rapid decline in loan rates during certain periods, but a slowdown is anticipated moving forward [3][31][32] - The banking sector is likely to see a stabilization in performance due to reduced pressure on interest margins, with a recommendation to focus on high-quality regional small banks and stable state-owned banks [3][32] Group 3: Non-Banking Sector - Guoyin Financial Leasing - Guoyin Financial Leasing is projected to achieve total revenue of 28.56 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 7.2%, and a net profit of 4.5 billion yuan, up 8.5% [3] - The company has seen rapid growth in its ship leasing segment, with revenue reaching 7.7 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 32.4% [3] Group 4: Non-Banking Sector - Blue Sky Technology - Blue Sky Technology reported a revenue of 2.554 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, with a net profit of 787 million yuan, up 9.8% [24] - The company’s adsorption materials business has shown strong growth, while the lithium extraction project has seen a significant decline in revenue [24][25] Group 5: Non-Banking Sector - Ruile New Materials - Ruile New Materials achieved a revenue of 1.459 billion yuan in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 20.7%, and a net profit of 252 million yuan, up 87.6% [27] - The display materials segment has become the largest business area for the company, driven by the increasing penetration of OLED panels [27][28][29]

Market Overview - The market saw a slight overall increase, with the Shanghai Composite Index, Shenzhen Component Index, and ChiNext Index rising by 0.04%, 0.24%, and 0.23% respectively, while nearly 3,500 stocks declined and about 1,800 stocks rose [4] Stablecoin - Stablecoin concepts are gaining traction, with JD Group's chairman expressing intentions to apply for stablecoin licenses globally to reduce cross-border payment costs by 90% and improve efficiency to under 10 seconds [7] - The People's Bank of China governor highlighted the role of blockchain and distributed ledger technology in enhancing the development of central bank digital currencies and stablecoins, indicating a growing global demand for improved cross-border payment systems [7][8] - Traditional cross-border payment systems are slow, taking 3-5 business days on average, while stablecoins can facilitate direct peer-to-peer settlements, potentially replacing traditional methods in the future [8] Methanol - Methanol stocks are performing well, with Jin Niu Chemical achieving a four-day consecutive increase, driven by strong demand from major production and export regions like Iran amidst geopolitical tensions [9][11] - The market dynamics show a divergence in performance, with some stocks like Jiang Tian Chemical experiencing significant declines while others thrive [14] Military Industry - The military sector is showing strength, with several stocks like Changcheng Military Industry and New Light Optoelectronics hitting their daily limits, driven by ongoing tensions in the Middle East [15][17] - The military sector index rose by 0.68%, reflecting a correlation with oil and gas sectors due to geopolitical factors [17] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The innovative pharmaceutical sector is experiencing a pullback, with leading stocks like Shutai Shen facing declines, while Changshan Pharmaceutical saw a significant increase of nearly 15%, marking a 200% rise year-to-date [20] - The stock has shown a tenfold increase over two and a half years, indicating strong market interest in weight-loss drugs [20]

Core Viewpoint - The company is facing significant operational challenges, with a focus on improving its financial situation and operational efficiency while navigating a difficult market environment [6][10][22]. Meeting Agenda - The annual shareholder meeting is scheduled for June 27, 2025, to discuss the 2024 annual report, board work report, and other key proposals [4][5]. - The meeting will include a review of the independent director's annual report and a voting session on various proposals [4][5]. Company Performance - The company reported a revenue of 770 million yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.59% year-on-year, with a net loss of 303 million yuan, which is a reduction in losses by 21.74% compared to the previous year [10][21][22]. - The average selling price of ethylene glycol increased by 12.69%, but the company still faced losses due to low market prices [6][10]. - The company implemented cost-saving measures that resulted in a reduction of expenses by approximately 40 million yuan [8]. Financial Condition - As of December 31, 2024, the company's total assets decreased by 19.15 million yuan, a decline of 13.07% from the previous year [16][19]. - The total liabilities increased by 20.66 million yuan, representing a 30.14% rise, primarily due to an increase in short-term borrowings and accounts payable [19][22]. - The company's asset-liability ratio stood at 46.80%, indicating a significant increase in financial leverage compared to the previous year [22]. Governance and Compliance - The company has adhered to legal and regulatory requirements for information disclosure, with 44 temporary announcements and 4 regular reports issued during the reporting period [10][11]. - The board of directors held 7 meetings, focusing on key operational and governance issues, ensuring compliance with relevant laws and regulations [12][11]. Future Plans - The company aims to optimize its product structure and expand its production capacity, particularly in oxalic acid, with plans to double its annual output from 100,000 tons to 200,000 tons [13]. - Management is committed to maintaining normal operations while seeking opportunities for growth and improvement in the coming years [13][10].

Core Viewpoint - The global chemical industry is undergoing significant changes due to various factors such as industry cycles, economic environment, and market competition, leading to frequent business adjustments and plant closures among major chemical companies this year [1] Group 1: Company Actions - Ascend Performance Materials announced the orderly closure of its hexamethylenediamine (HMDA) production facility in Lianyungang, China, after a comprehensive assessment of the plant's long-term viability in a changing market and regulatory environment [2] - The Lianyungang plant was Ascend's first chemical production base outside the U.S. and its largest investment project outside the U.S., with an initial investment of approximately 1.29 billion RMB and a planned annual production capacity of 200,000 tons of HMDA [2] - Following the closure, Ascend's core production capacity will revert to its U.S. facilities [2] Group 2: Market Dynamics - Ascend is the largest integrated nylon 66 producer globally, with production bases in North America, Europe, and Asia, serving various sectors including automotive, electronics, and consumer goods [3] - The global HMDA production capacity is primarily concentrated among a few companies, including Invista (over 30% market share), BASF (largest in Europe), and Ascend (second largest in the U.S.) [4] - While Ascend is reducing its production capacity, BASF and Invista are expanding their operations [5] Group 3: Competitor Developments - BASF announced the commissioning of a new world-class HMDA plant in Chalampé, France, with an annual capacity of 260,000 tons, marking a key step in its strategic expansion in the nylon 66 business [6] - Invista has decided to keep its HMDA production facilities operational despite previous plans to close them and is also restarting production at its Canadian facility in 2024 [6] - In China, several companies, including Chongqing Huafeng and Shennong Group, are rapidly expanding their HMDA production, with a total capacity reaching 1.265 million tons [7] Group 4: Technological Advancements - The China Pingmei Shenma Group has launched a new 100,000 tons/year HMDA production facility, utilizing a direct synthesis method that bypasses traditional processes [8] - The global chemical market is experiencing unprecedented changes, driven by asset optimization, debt reduction, and shifts in market dynamics [10]

Report Overview - The report focuses on the supply and demand analysis and annual outlook of butadiene in China, covering upstream supply, downstream demand, and annual supply - demand balance [3][47] Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints - China's butadiene self - sufficiency rate has been above 90%, but there is still a supply - demand gap. The capacity is expanding, with an expected 761.7 million tons/year by the end of 2025, a 14.77% year - on - year increase [3][11] - In 2025, both upstream and downstream of butadiene have new projects. The downstream production growth rate is lower than the upstream, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [3][51] Summary by Directory Butadiene Upstream Supply Analysis Butadiene Capacity Historical Changes and Current Situation - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity expanded rapidly from 178.9 million tons to 359.5 million tons, with an average annual growth rate of 12.46%. It was mainly due to the development of the ethylene industry and new device launches [9] - From 2015 - 2016, the capacity growth rate declined, and some backward small - scale devices exited [9] - From 2017 - 2020, the capacity recovered, and the import dependence gradually decreased [10] - Since 2021, the industry has entered a mature development stage, with technological progress and a shift towards high - end products [10] - By the end of 2025, the capacity is expected to reach 761.7 million tons/year, with a 98 - million - ton new capacity this year [11][12] Butadiene Production and Imports and Exports - The self - sufficiency rate has increased, and the upstream device operating rate is stable at around 70%. In 2024, the production was 470 million tons, a 2.02% year - on - year increase. The expected nominal production growth rate this year is 9% [14] - The import dependence is stable at around 7%, mainly from South Korea, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, Europe, and the US. The import volume is expected to decline this year [14] Butadiene Downstream Demand Main Areas Analysis Cis - Polybutadiene Rubber - From 2009 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 22.17%. From 2015 - 2021, the growth slowed down, and in 2016, the total capacity decreased. Since 2022, the capacity has recovered, with a 20 - million - ton new device planned in 2025 [18] - The production profit has been low since last year, and the operating rate is expected to remain low. The production profit may recover due to a lower production growth rate than butadiene [24] Styrene - Butadiene Rubber - From 2008 - 2014, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average growth rate of 14.5%. From 2015 - 2024, the growth slowed down, and in 2019 and 2024, the total capacity decreased. In 2025, a 40 - million - ton new device is planned [28][30] - The production profit improved in the first half of this year but recently declined. With more new projects, the profit is expected to weaken, and the operating rate may be affected [33] ABS - Since 2021, the capacity has been expanding, with high growth rates in 2021 - 2023 and a lower but still positive growth in 2024. The production declined in 2024, and the annual operating rate was lower [35] - The production profit was negative in 2024 on average but is currently positive, which may support the operating rate this year [35] SBS - Currently, the new capacity is stable, with a 55.5 - million - ton new capacity planned in 2025 [40] - The production gross profit is at a low level, and the operating rate is expected to be the same as last year due to weak domestic consumption [42] Nitrile Rubber - From 2008 - 2012, the capacity grew rapidly, with an average annual growth rate of 33%. From 2013 - 2021, it developed steadily, with an average growth rate of 1%. Since 2022, the growth has slowed to 7% [43] - In 2025, a 4 - million - ton new device was launched, and 3 - million - ton old capacity exited, with a net increase of 1 - million - ton. The production profit is expected to recover, and the operating rate may increase [45] Butadiene Annual Supply - Demand Balance Sheet Outlook - In 2025, butadiene is expected to have a 98 - million - ton new capacity, with a nominal capacity growth rate of 14.77%. The downstream production growth rate is lower, and a stockpiling cycle is expected [47][51] - The port inventory accounts for about 34% of the domestic social inventory on average since 2019, and the domestic social inventory accounts for about 7% of the annual cumulative production since 2016. So, the port inventory accounts for about 2.4% of the supply [3][54]

德国化工企业科思创（Covestro）日前宣布，已开始通过电动重卡向 中国巨石 运输原材料，首次将电 动卡车日常运输延伸至客户端。 作为科思创绿色物流项目的一部分，一台电动重卡已在科思创上海一体化基地与中国巨石位于浙江桐乡 的工厂之间定期运行。该路线往返超过200公里。根据第三方物流服务商测算（基于本地柴油与电动卡 车的排放因子，以及科思创对该电动卡车线路货运量的预估），预计每年较传统柴油车运输可降低约 36.9吨或47%的二氧化碳排放。 这标志着科思创在推进化工行业供应链脱碳的道路上又迈出关键一步。此前，公司已在上海一体化基地 采用电动卡车开展短驳运输，将化学品运送至周边仓库。 "供应链在化工行业迈向气候中性的进程中发挥着至关重要的作用。"科思创亚太区供应链与物流高级副 总裁Marius Wirtz表示，"此次与中国巨石合作推进可持续物流的商业化部署，充分证明这一方案不仅切 实可行，也具备规模化潜力。我们致力于携手更多合作伙伴，持续探索并推动兼具环境效益与商业价值 的运输解决方案。" 可规模化的物流解决方案 此次合作也是中国巨石与合作方首次系统性采用 新能源 物流方案。中国巨石是全球最大的玻纤生产 商，其产 ...