证 券 研 究 报 告 内需崛起，挖掘新消费的情绪曲线 2025夏季电商零售投资策略 证券分析师：赵令伊 A0230518100003 研究支持：李秀琳 A0230123070007 2025.6.10 投资主线 ◼ 主线1：新消费高景气，情绪价值满足的供给升级 • 工艺变迁升级下，行业转向产品设计和品牌化能力比拼，金饰迎来产品及品牌长周期beta，而传统品牌产品同质化及渠道竞争仍在调整。 建议关注具备产品差异化和高品牌认知的优质品牌：老铺黄金、潮宏基、曼卡龙、 菜百股份、莱绅通灵、周大生、老凤祥。 • 情绪消费崛起，中国人均IP消费有巨大潜力空间。聚焦IP经济，赋予产品更大商业附加值，将成为消费品牌构建差异化的重要竞争力。 建议关注：名创优品、量子之歌。 1. 宏观：内需提振，政策加力推动新消费 3 ◼ 主线2：增长势能延续，AI、即时零售开拓增量 • 平台竞争维度延展，对商家及用户生态、AI和即时零售潜力新业务、出海扩张等新增长极加大布局，持续投入蓄力，有望带动长期增长 正循环，看好平台高质量增长势能。推荐：阿里巴巴、美团、拼多多、京东 。 ◼ 主线3：贸易不确定性加剧，消费内循环重要性提升。 • 关税波 ...

Group 1 - The recent shareholder meeting of Meituan highlighted concerns over competition with JD.com and the development of instant retail, with executives primarily reading from prepared statements, leading to shareholder dissatisfaction [1] - Wang Xing expressed that the entry of new players into the food delivery and instant retail market indicates a positive outlook for the industry, emphasizing that the market is still in its early to mid-development stage and has significant growth potential [2][3] - The company believes that to meet the high consumer demand for fast delivery, there needs to be a comprehensive improvement on the supply side, which has been a challenge in past collaborations with traditional offline retailers [3] Group 2 - The entry of more participants in the market is welcomed by the company, as it believes that collaboration and innovation among various players, including traditional retailers, can accelerate industry growth [3] - The company has been a pioneer in the food delivery sector since 2013 and has expanded its services to include instant retail, indicating a strategic shift to meet evolving consumer needs [2] - Wang Xing noted that consumer demand for quick delivery has evolved from days to hours, and now to half-hour delivery, reflecting a significant change in consumer expectations [2]

Group 1 - Starbucks China is focusing on tea beverages, planning to launch new products with an average price reduction of around 5 yuan, bringing the price of large cups to approximately 23 yuan starting June 10, 2025 [1] - The tea beverage market in China is larger than the coffee market, with the current market size for freshly brewed coffee at 172.1 billion yuan and freshly made tea drinks at 258.5 billion yuan [1] - Starbucks has advantages in product development and supply chain, as evidenced by the popularity of its Frappuccino [1] Group 2 - Competitors like Heytea and Nayuki have lower average customer prices, with Heytea at 17.44 yuan and Nayuki at 19.32 yuan [3] - Starbucks maintains a high service standard in its stores, which is supported by a robust operational system, unlike competitors that are increasingly using temporary workers [4] - The demand for Starbucks' "third space" concept remains uncertain, raising questions about potential crowding in stores [4] Group 3 - The introduction of new tea products is seen as a positive change for Starbucks, aligning with the narrative of "morning coffee, afternoon tea" [4] - The market is witnessing incremental growth opportunities as Starbucks diversifies its offerings [5]

Core Insights - The company, Chen Yi Wu Yu, held a city conference in Shenzhen focused on "AI+ igniting private domain traffic monetization," attracting over 500 participants to discuss new models in the private domain economy [1] Group 1: Business Model and Operations - Since its inception, the company has adhered to the principle of providing healthy products and promoting a healthy lifestyle, establishing a four-in-one trust chain e-commerce model linking producers, platforms, consultants, and consumers [4] - The company has built a stable supply, procurement, and sales connection mechanism, ensuring product quality through various measures including source control, user selection, professional transportation, and authoritative certification [4] - It collaborates with over 2,000 fruit orchards, 420 planting bases, and 300 factories, and has established four large processing industrial parks and nationwide storage and transportation centers, forming a complete production and sales ecosystem [4] Group 2: Product Development and Market Impact - In response to the explosive growth in health consumption demand, the company has intensified product research and development, creating multiple core categories including fresh fruits and vegetables, health foods, wellness products, and quality personal care items [7] - The company has indirectly facilitated entrepreneurship for over one million mothers and delivered quality and health to 50 million households [7] Group 3: Social Responsibility and Community Engagement - Over nine years, the company has helped sell over 337 million agricultural products across 159 cities and counties, enabling one million mothers and over 20,000 disabled individuals to achieve entrepreneurial income [8] - The company has launched initiatives such as the "Sweet China - Healthy Fruit Tasting Journey" program, which has directly supported the sale of over 15 million pounds of fruit and assisted 4 million farmers in producing and selling quality fruit [10] Group 4: AI Integration and Future Prospects - In March 2025, the company introduced an AI system named "Xiao Dan Classmate," designed to enhance marketing efficiency through product knowledge acquisition, content generation, and precise user recommendations [11] - The AI system is continuously updated and optimized, aiming to redefine the efficiency and experience of private domain e-commerce, positioning itself as a partner for light entrepreneurs [14] - The company plans to leverage AI technology to empower trust and drive innovation, merging digital economy with rural revitalization efforts [14]

Core Insights - The retail industry is undergoing a significant transformation driven by government initiatives aimed at enhancing innovation and efficiency, with the first batch of pilot cities announced for a systematic upgrade by 2029 [1][6] - The shift from traditional retail to a service-oriented experience is exemplified by a commercial complex in Wuhan, which combines retail with entertainment and lifestyle offerings to meet diverse consumer needs [3] - The integration of physical retail with digital platforms is crucial for enhancing retail efficiency, as seen during the upcoming "618" shopping festival where brick-and-mortar stores leverage online sales channels [5] Group 1: Government Initiatives - The Ministry of Commerce and other departments have launched the "Retail Innovation and Enhancement Project," aiming to address issues like outdated business models and insufficient quality supply [1] - A total of 38 cities, including major urban centers like Beijing and Shanghai, have been selected as pilot locations to explore long-term mechanisms for retail innovation [1][6] - By 2029, the goal is to establish a modern retail system characterized by rich supply, balanced layout, diverse channels, quality service, and sustainability [6] Group 2: Consumer Experience - The evolution of retail is marked by a focus on providing a satisfying consumer experience, moving beyond mere transactions to creating enjoyable shopping environments [3] - The combination of retail and experiential offerings, such as amusement parks and food streets, aims to fulfill various consumer desires in a single location [3] Group 3: Digital Integration - The upcoming "618" shopping event highlights the deep integration of physical retail with digital platforms, allowing consumers to order online and receive same-day delivery [5] - Innovations such as AI-driven smart shelves and cashier-less stores are reshaping the retail landscape, transitioning from traditional models to intelligent ecosystems [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the rapid growth of e-commerce in Jiyue County, with a focus on summer product sales and the successful launch of new production lines and workforce expansion [1] - Jiyue County achieved a network retail sales of 1.04 billion yuan in 2024, marking a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, with 43 Taobao villages and 10 Taobao towns established [1] - Local employment has been significantly boosted, with over 5,000 jobs created through e-commerce initiatives, leading to increased income for residents [1] Group 2 - Jiyue County is actively promoting the integration of live-streaming economy with local industries, achieving a total transaction volume of 5 million yuan during a recent online event, reflecting an 18% year-on-year growth [2] - The county has conducted 26 training sessions for e-commerce skills, cultivating over 1,200 talents to enhance local industry capabilities [2] - Several local enterprises have been recognized as provincial-level live-streaming e-commerce demonstration projects, enhancing the regional brand influence [2] Group 3 - Jiyue County is building a comprehensive e-commerce ecosystem by integrating live-streaming sales with local agricultural and tourism sectors, creating stable job opportunities and promoting high-quality economic development [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the integration of technology and culture in China's agricultural sector, showcasing the potential for innovation and modernization in rural areas [1][3]. - The visit by international friend Evan Kyle emphasizes the advancements in agricultural practices, such as automated processing lines in the crayfish industry and innovative marketing strategies by young village leaders [2][3]. - JD Supermarket's initiative to establish a "JD Base Plan" aims to enhance the quality and sales of agricultural products by collaborating with over 100 specialty agricultural product regions and creating one million acres of JD bases [3]. Group 2 - The article illustrates the diverse agricultural products in China, such as various types of watermelons in Jiangsu and the efficient processing of crayfish in Hubei, reflecting the country's agricultural diversity [2]. - The engagement of young village leaders in promoting local culture and products through modern platforms like Douyin (TikTok) signifies a shift towards innovative marketing in rural areas [2][3]. - The communication event also showcased JD Supermarket's commitment to rural revitalization through significant financial support, with a focus on optimizing supply chains and direct sourcing from producers [3].

Core Viewpoint - The article highlights the transformative experience of international friends visiting Chinese agriculture, showcasing the advancements in technology, quality, and cultural integration within the industry [2][4][11]. Group 1: Agricultural Advancements - The tour revealed the advanced breeding technology in China, particularly in watermelon varieties, which far exceed those available in the U.S. [5] - In Hubei's crawfish kingdom, a modern factory with 4,000 workers can produce over a thousand tons of crawfish daily, demonstrating high efficiency and automation [7]. - The Guangdong Maoming millennium lychee garden exemplifies the blend of cultural heritage and innovation, emphasizing that innovation is the best form of cultural inheritance [9]. Group 2: Economic Impact and Initiatives - JD Supermarket's "100 Billion Agricultural Subsidy" plan has invested over 3.5 billion yuan, benefiting 25 million consumers and saving them nearly 1 billion yuan [11][13]. - During the recent 618 shopping festival, over 500 fresh agricultural products saw a fivefold increase in order volume compared to the previous year, with specific products like lychees and eggs experiencing significant sales growth [11]. - JD Supermarket plans to establish over a million acres of agricultural bases by 2025, enhancing the quality and authenticity of agricultural products while promoting rural development [13].

市场消息：亚马逊(AMZN.O)计划在中国台湾投资超过五十亿美金，以支持新区域的发展。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the escalating tensions between Tesla's CEO Elon Musk and U.S. President Donald Trump, resulting in a significant drop in Tesla's stock price by 14.2%, leading to a market value loss of over $150 billion [4][30] - Harvard University has filed a lawsuit against the U.S. government in response to visa restrictions imposed on international students, indicating a legal battle over educational policies [3][7] - The Chinese central bank announced a substantial 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity in the banking system, marking a significant intervention in the financial markets [5] Group 2 - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce criticized the U.S. for increasing tariffs on steel and aluminum, labeling it as unilateralism and protectionism that disrupts global supply chains [8] - Local governments in China have accelerated borrowing, with a total of 4.3 trillion yuan raised in the first five months of the year, although bond issuance saw a decline in May [9] - The real estate sector is witnessing a resurgence in investment enthusiasm, with major companies acquiring land in core cities, leading to a 28.8% year-on-year increase in land acquisition by top developers [12]