【冠通期货研究报告】 库存连续数周去化 发布日期：2025 年 11 月 26 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面低开高走，日内偏强。现货价格依然走弱，但受期货上涨影响，市 场低价成交良好，部分工厂出现停售现象。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿 素出厂价格范围在 1570-1620 元/吨，低端价格成交较好，高端价位成交氛围一 般。基本面来看，日产目前大幅偏高于历年同期，预计在气头装置季节性停产以 前，上游工厂装置日产将在 19 万吨以上波动，煤炭成本端，上涨趋势放缓，下 游需求有待验证，若旺季证伪，成本端支撑将下移。本期复合肥工厂开工负荷回 升，上周环保检查结束后，企业装置逐渐恢复生产，且东北地区部分装置开始开 工，部分装置开工负荷已提升至较高水平，目前企业通过原料采购情况进行预收 单的处理。近期价格上涨以来，下游终端拿货速度有所提高，拿货积极性明显增 加，叠加储备需求，库存连续数周去化，本周环比回落 5.1%。 整体来说，市场 低价成交增多，需求好转，盘面价格反弹，上方供应充足压制下，反弹受限。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2601 合约 1630 元/吨开盘, 低开高走，日内偏强，最 终收于 1654 元 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - In the short - term, domestic urea demand is limited, but with the new quota issuance, the impact of the international market on the domestic market increases. The acceptance of lower prices by downstream users has improved, and short - term urea is expected to be range - bound. In the medium - term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be in a weak trend [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures rebounded, closing at 1654 (+21/+1.29%) [3]. - Spot market: Factory prices were stable with a downward trend, and trading improved. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information - On November 26, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.34 million tons, an increase of 0.24 million tons from the previous working day and 1.17 million tons from the same period last year. The current operating rate was 84.10%, a decrease of 0.72% from 84.82% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - Shandong: The mainstream factory price was weakly stable, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material and finished product inventories were high, and new orders were scarce. Factory prices were expected to be weakly stable [5]. - Henan: Market sentiment was weak, factory prices followed the increase, trading volume decreased, and factory prices were expected to operate weakly [5]. - Areas around the delivery area: Factory prices were firm, market sentiment was average, demand in the Northeast increased, but new orders were weak. Factory prices were expected to remain stable [5]. - Overall supply and demand: Maintenance devices returned, daily output increased to around 20.4 million tons. On the demand side, the fourth batch of quotas was issued, and the impact of international prices on the domestic market increased again. The compound fertilizer production in central and northern China basically ended, and the demand was declining. The inventory of urea production enterprises decreased by 7.33 million tons to around 1.36 billion tons, remaining at a high level [5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short at high levels, do not chase short positions [6]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6].

长城证券研报指出，亚钾国际2025年前三季度归母净利润为13.63亿元，同比上升163.01%；Q3归母净 利润为5.08亿元，环比上升7.99%。氯化钾量价齐升，公司业绩同比高增。公司2025年前三季度销售毛 利率为58.91%，同比上升9.79pcts。公司利润同比高增的主要原因为钾肥销量增加、销售价格上升。结 合公司11月25日收盘价，对应PE分别为21/14/11倍。看好公司钾盐产能的不断释放以及非钾业务方面的 布局，有望进一步打开利润增长空间，维持"买入"评级。 ...

国投安信期货 尿素价格回落后或再度回归僵持波动的局面 光大期货：尿素短期延续低位宽幅震荡趋势 基本面来看，尿素供应水平高位波动，行业日产量昨日20.11万吨，日环比下降0.04万吨。需求端跟进仍 不积极，昨日主流地区现货产销率多在5%~50%区间，个别地区提升至80%附近。市场虽有刚需跟进， 但区域间表现仍有明显分化。尿素工厂存在少量待发订单支撑，且执行订单过程中或带动本周企业库存 继续去化，现货报价短期仍偏坚挺。期货市场利好驱动预期有限，短期延续低位宽幅震荡趋势，关注需 求力度及现货成交情况、气头企业开工变化、出口动态及印标动态等国际市场动态。 中辉期货：尿素上有顶下有底 山东小颗粒尿素现货、基差小幅走弱。从基本面角度来看，供应端压力未减，装置复产超过检修产能损 失，日产量高达20.25万吨，同时，在12月气头企业检修前，产量有望继续维持高位。需求端内冷外 热，年前农业追肥利多有限；复合肥、三聚氰胺开工提升；尿素及化肥（硫酸铵、氯化铵）出口相对较 好。社库略有去化但仍处同期高位，仓单持续回升；自今年7月以来，尿素出口保持较高增速。在"出口 配额制"及"保供稳价"背景下，尿素上有顶下有底。整体来看，第四批尿素 ...

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View - The urea spot price has slightly declined, with the trading atmosphere weakening recently after being good last week. The start - up rates of compound fertilizer and melamine have increased, and the off - season storage is gradually entering the market. With the release of new production capacity, the medium - to - long - term supply - demand of urea remains relatively loose. The fourth - batch export quota news has improved the year - end export expectation and is expected to support the spot market. The author suggests a range - bound strategy for unilateral trading and a wait - and - see approach for inter - period trading, with no cross - variety strategy [2][3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Urea Basis Structure - On November 25, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1,630 yuan/ton (-8). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1,640 yuan/ton (unchanged), in Shandong was 1,630 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1,630 yuan/ton (unchanged). The basis in Shandong was 0 yuan/ton (-2), in Henan was 10 yuan/ton (-2), and in Jiangsu was 0 yuan/ton (+8) [1]. 3.2 Urea Production - As of November 25, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (with a 0.08% change). The specific production data is shown in the "Urea Weekly Production" chart [1]. 3.3 Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 25, 2025, the urea production profit was 100 yuan/ton (-10). The national capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), with coal - based capacity utilization rate and gas - based capacity utilization rate details shown in relevant charts [1]. 3.4 Urea Off - shore Price and Export Profit - As of November 25, 2025, the urea export profit was 1,012 yuan/ton (+6). In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons, which has improved the year - end export expectation [1][2]. 3.5 Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 25, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 34.61% (+4.29%), the melamine capacity utilization rate was 62.20% (+4.72%), and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 3.6 Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 25, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 1.4372 million tons (-46,400), and the port sample inventory was 100,000 tons (+18,000) [1].

西北化工销售公司事业部宁夏化肥线经理姚薇表示："现在，我们的每一步操作都基于前期扎实的市场 分析，既能借助实货与期货锁定基差预售打开销路、支撑贸易量稳步扩张，又能依靠期货对冲价格变动 风险，为客户提供更多销售模式，实现'高质量扩销'与'风险可控'的双重目标。" 今年以来，国内尿素市场深度调整，价格一路下行，传统随行就市的销售模式难以适应复杂的市场环 境。西北化工销售公司加强市场研判，组建专业分析团队，结合宏观政策导向与期货市场基差规律，精 准预判出"实货价格短期仍有下滑空间，期货价格相对抗跌"的动态市场特征。在此基础上，该公司采 取"实货预售、现货即期采购，同时买入期货对冲风险"模式，扩销1万吨尿素，形成期现结合的贸易模 式。 中化新网讯 近日，中石油西北化工销售公司与四川农资化肥有限责任公司完成1万吨尿素期现结合贸易 业务。这是西北化工销售公司首次开展尿素期现结合贸易。 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating [1][2] Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short term, domestic urea demand remains limited, with agricultural demand ending and compound fertilizer not yet starting on a large scale. The spot market sentiment is still low. The domestic - international price difference is large, and the new quota issuance increases the impact of the international market on the domestic one. Urea is expected to be mainly range - bound. In the medium term, after the impact of the fourth batch of export quotas fades, overall demand is weak, and urea is expected to be weak [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Review - Futures market: Urea futures oscillated and declined, closing at 1630 (-7/-0.43%) [3] - Spot market: The ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, and the trading volume was average. The ex - factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shandong small - particle 1610 - 1620 yuan/ton, Hebei small - particle 1620 - 1630 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - particle 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, Anhui small - particle 1570 - 1580 yuan/ton, Inner Mongolia 1460 - 1500 yuan/ton [3] Important Information - On November 25, the daily urea production in the industry was 20.11 tons, a decrease of 0.04 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 1.10 tons compared to the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.17%, a decrease of 0.94% compared to 84.11% in the same period last year [4] Logical Analysis - In Shandong, the mainstream ex - factory price was stable with a downward trend, market sentiment cooled, industrial compound fertilizer operating rate declined, raw material inventory was abundant, finished product inventory was high, grass - roots orders were scarce, and the ex - factory price was expected to be stable with a downward trend. In Henan, the market sentiment was weak, the ex - factory price followed the increase, and it was expected to operate weakly. Around the delivery area, the ex - factory price was firm, the demand in the Northeast increased, and the ex - factory price was expected to be temporarily stable. Overall, the supply was loose, the demand was declining, and the inventory was high [5] Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short from high levels, do not chase short [6] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [6]

AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 当外交官们正为俄乌冲突和平协议的核心条款争得不可开交时，草案中有一个细节却鲜有人注意：那就 是基于美俄商业关系未来可能"遍地开花"的设想而抛出的"甜头"。 这些提案主要由俄罗斯主权财富基金负责人德米特里耶夫（Kirill Dmitriev）与美国特使威特科夫 （Steve Witkoff）共同敲定，设想在两国间达成一项涵盖能源、稀土和数据中心的"长期经济合作协 议"。双方还计划设立一个用于联合项目的美俄投资基金，以此作为"不再重返冲突的强有力激励"。 这事儿还有另一种解读：这两位由商人转型为外交官的角色，正试图精心炮制一个让美国总统特朗普无 法拒绝的理由，好让他继续留在这个谈判局里。 将宏大的外交政策与商业机会捆绑在一起，已成为这位美国总统处理国际事务的一大特色。 在促成加沙停火之前，特朗普就曾勾勒过将该地区打造成"中东里维埃拉"度假胜地的蓝图。在他的第一 个任期内，在寻求与金正恩缓和关系时，他也曾高声畅想过朝鲜那"很棒的海滩"以及在那儿开发海景公 寓的潜力。 前中情局（CIA）中欧亚分部负责人Rob Dannenberg认为，和平提案中类似的论调背后 ...

Group 1 - The company has established good cooperative relationships with fertilizer manufacturers in domestic, East Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, and North Africa through years of effort [2] - The company is exploring market expansion in major agricultural production areas such as Southeast Asia and South America [2] - The company is leveraging international exchange platforms from policies to gain overseas orders or technical cooperation opportunities [2]

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating provided in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - Urea enterprise transaction atmosphere has weakened recently, and prices may slightly correct. In the medium to long - term, urea supply - demand remains relatively loose due to new capacity release. The fourth - quarter gas - head maintenance is expected to start in December. The export quota news has improved the end - of - year export expectations and is expected to support the spot market. Attention should be paid to the start - up rate of Northeast compound fertilizers, raw material procurement rhythm, and the national off - season storage rhythm [2]. - The strategy for urea investment is: unilateral trading should be in a range - bound mode, cross - period trading should be on hold, and there is no cross - variety trading strategy [3]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Urea Basis Structure - On November 24, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1638 yuan/ton (-16). The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Henan was 1650 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1640 yuan/ton (-10), and in Jiangsu was 1630 yuan/ton (-10). The Shandong basis was 2 yuan/ton (+6), the Henan basis was 12 yuan/ton (+16), and the Jiangsu basis was - 8 yuan/ton (+6) [1]. 2. Urea Production - As of November 24, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.91% (0.08%), and the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64) [1]. 3. Urea Production Profit and Start - up Rate - As of November 24, 2025, the urea production profit was 110 yuan/ton (-10), and the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively [1]. 4. Urea Foreign Market Price and Export Profit - In October, 1.2 million tons of urea were exported, and the cumulative export this year exceeded 4 million tons. Urea producers have obtained a fourth - batch export quota of 600,000 tons. As of November 24, 2025, the urea export profit was 1007 yuan/ton (-18) [1][2]. 5. Urea Downstream Start - up and Orders - As of November 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rates of compound fertilizers and melamine were 34.61% (+4.29%) and 62.20% (+4.72%) respectively, and the pre - received order days of urea enterprises were 7.12 days (-0.59) [1]. 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of November 24, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 143.72 million tons (-4.64), and the port sample inventory was 10 million tons (+1.80) [1].