宏观流动性： 上周美元指数有所回升，中美利差"倒挂"程度有所收敛。10Y 美债名义/实际利率均回落，通胀预期变化不大。离岸 美元流动性有所收紧，国内银行间资金面整体平衡宽松，期限利差(10Y-1Y)走阔。 交易热度、波动与流动性： 市场交易热度继续回升，除中证 1000 外，其余主要指数波动率均明显回升。行业上，TMT、消费者服务、轻工、机械、 汽车等板块交易热度在 80%分位数以上，大多数行业波动率均在 80%分位数以下。 机构调研： 电子、医药、通信、汽车、计算机等板块调研热度居前，医药、通信、食品饮料、农林牧渔、家电、化工等板块的调 研热度环比仍在上升。 分析师预测： 全 A 的 25/26 年净利润预测同时被下调。行业上，非银、有色、传媒、通信等板块 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调。指 数上，上证 50 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被上调,沪深 300 的 25/26 年净利润预测均被下调，中证 500、创业板指的 25/26 年净利润预测分别被下调/上调。风格上，大盘/中盘/小盘成长、大盘/小盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测均被 下调，中盘价值的 25/26 年的净利润预测分别被下调/上调。 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Last week (August 25 - August 29, 2025), the A - share market continued to oscillate upwards, with the Wande All - A Index rising 1.90%. The technology track was the focus of investors, and the ChiNext Index and ChiNext 50 rose 7.74% and 9.27% respectively, while the Science and Technology Innovation 50 recorded a 7.49% increase [2][11]. - The "AI+" market is currently concentrated on upstream infrastructure - type hardware. With reference to the experience of the mobile Internet, the technology bull market follows a rotation rhythm from hardware to software and from stories to performance. In the future, domestic AI applications will shift from overseas - benchmarked speculation to statement - end growth verification [4][12]. - The mid - year reports of A - share listed companies in 2025 are basically disclosed. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares and all A - shares excluding finance and petrochemicals in 2025H1 are 3.36% and 4.27% respectively, and the performance bottom - warming trend is still on the way [4][13]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Market Observation 1.1. Equity Market Review and Observation - **Market Performance**: The A - share market continued to oscillate upwards last week. The Shanghai Composite Index approached 3900 points on Monday, adjusted in the middle of the week, and showed an upward trend again on Thursday and Friday. The Wande All - A Index rose 1.90%, and the ChiNext Index, ChiNext 50, and Science and Technology Innovation 50 had significant increases. The communication and electronics sectors led the gains, while the Wande Micro - Cap Index fell 3.78% and the CSI Dividend Index declined 1.10%. The market trading was active, with the trading volume exceeding 2 trillion yuan for 13 consecutive trading days, and the average daily trading volume was 2983.1 billion yuan, an increase of 395.651 billion yuan from the previous week. The average daily turnover rate was 2.579%, an increase of 0.26 percentage points from the previous week [11]. - **"AI+" Market**: The current "AI+" market is concentrated on upstream infrastructure - type hardware. Overseas - chain optical modules and PCBs started in June, and domestic computing power began to make up for the increase in mid - August. With reference to the mobile Internet experience, the technology bull market has a rotation rhythm. The North American AI application is booming, and in the future, domestic AI applications will shift to statement - end growth verification. On August 26, 2025, the State Council issued an opinion, marking the acceleration of China's AI application under policy promotion [4][12]. - **Full A Mid - year Report Disclosure**: The mid - year reports of A - share listed companies in 2025 are basically disclosed. The cumulative year - on - year growth rates of the net profit attributable to the parent of all A - shares and all A - shares excluding finance and petrochemicals in 2025H1 are 3.36% and 4.27% respectively, down 0.83% and 2.39% from 2025Q1. The technology sector has a relatively high marginal improvement in performance, while the upstream resource sector is under pressure [4][13]. - **Consumer Electronics**: Mobile phones are still the most mainstream hardware for users to interact with AI. Since 2025, more AI consumer hardware has tried to become an extension of mobile phones. In the long run, the interaction paradigm of AI hardware is expected to evolve towards "senselessness" [4]. 1.2. Public Offering Fund Market Dynamics - As of the end of July 2025, there were 164 public offering fund management institutions in China, including 149 fund management companies and 15 asset management institutions with public offering qualifications, managing a total net asset value of 35.08 trillion yuan. In July, the net values of stock and hybrid funds increased by 4.07% and 3.76% respectively month - on - month, while the shares decreased by 0.33% and 1.22% respectively. The decrease in the shares of equity - containing funds was due to some holders taking profits [5][14]. 2. Active Equity Fund Index Performance Tracking 2.1. Active Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: Each period selects 15 funds with equal - weight allocation. The core positions select active equity funds based on performance competitiveness and style stability in value, balanced, and growth styles, and the styles are roughly balanced according to the style distribution of the CSI Active Stock - type Fund Index [16]. - **Performance**: It rose 4.20% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 13.01% since its establishment [6]. 2.2. Value Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It includes deep - value and quality - value styles. It selects 10 funds with deep - value, quality - value, and balanced - value styles based on multi - period style division [16]. - **Performance**: It rose 0.95% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 0.18% since its establishment [6]. 2.3. Balanced Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: Balanced - style fund managers balance the valuation and growth of individual stocks and are diversified in industries. It selects 10 funds with relatively balanced and value - growth styles based on multi - period style division [21]. - **Performance**: It rose 2.80% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 7.70% since its establishment [6]. 2.4. Growth Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It aims to seize the opportunities of performance and valuation double - click of high - growth companies and find "dark horses" in high - potential fields. It selects 10 funds with active - growth, quality - growth, and balanced - growth styles based on multi - period style division [22]. - **Performance**: It rose 5.69% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 17.45% since its establishment [6]. 2.5. Pharmaceutical Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of the representative index (CITIC Pharmaceutical). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 15 funds to form the index [26]. - **Performance**: It fell 1.86% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 21.90% since its establishment [6]. 2.6. Consumption Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Automobile, Home Appliances, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [28]. - **Performance**: It rose 0.82% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 16.06% since its establishment [6]. 2.7. Technology Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Electronics, Communication, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [31]. - **Performance**: It rose 5.42% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of 18.93% since its establishment [6]. 2.8. High - end Manufacturing Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Construction, Light Industry Manufacturing, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 10 funds to form the index [34]. - **Performance**: It rose 2.00% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 8.14% since its establishment [6]. 2.9. Cyclical Stock Fund Preferred Index - **Index Positioning**: It classifies funds according to the intersection market - value proportion of fund equity holdings and the constituent stocks of representative indices (CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemicals, Coal, etc.). It constructs an evaluation system in the samples that meet the industry theme, and selects 5 funds to form the index [37]. - **Performance**: It rose 1.33% last week and has recorded a cumulative excess return of - 2.55% since its establishment [6].

证券研究报告：宏观报告 发布时间：2025-09-01 研究所 分析师:袁野 SAC 登记编号:S1340523010002 Email:yuanye@cnpsec.com 研究助理:苑西恒 SAC 登记编号:S1340124020005 Email:yuanxiheng@cnpsec.com 近期研究报告 《出口韧性、"反内卷"，引领 PPI 边际改善》 - 2025.08.25 宏观研究 8 月制造业供需回暖但失衡仍存，关注价格修复的 持续性 核心观点 从 8 月 PMI 指数来看，制造业景气度边际改善，供需两端均有所 回暖，其中，生产端改善好于需求端，供需失衡问题尚未缓解，重点 关注三点边际变化： 一是受益"反内卷"政策，整治部分行业无序竞争，PPI 同比增 速或边际改善，生产景气度亦边际改善，支撑企业利润预期改善。从 理论上分析，企业利润改善或促进生产扩张，但目前企业利润预期改 善向生产扩张传导的动力尚不明显，8 月 PMI 产成品库存环比下降亦 有所体现，企业仍处于去库阶段，并未开启补库。参考 2016 年-2017 年供给侧结构性改革的经验，"反内卷"政策亦属于供给侧政策，或 对生产产生一定扰动， ...

国泰海通 GUIDE 摘要 国泰海通：未来股指还会有新高； 中国银河证券：A股下一阶段大概率将延续震荡上行的走势； 华泰证券：9月产业催化密集下科技股或仍有表现； 中信证券：9月建议继续聚焦资源、创新药、消费电子、化工、游戏和军工。 9月产业催化密集下科技股或仍有表现 未来股指还会有新高 随着上证指数站上3800点创下十年新高，市场分歧和疑虑也随之增加。 我们认为，中国股市不会止步 于此，股指还有新高。 2025年以来，我们看多中国的逻辑是一贯的：第一，中国转型进展加快，经济 社会发展的不确定性下降。第二，无风险利率下沉，长期资本和居民入市进入历史性转折与时代趋势。 第三，资本市场改革，社会各界对中国资产的价值观念和风险认识因此而系统性改观，打开了资本市场 发展的空间。 市场也不必过虑阶段性调整，首先两融规模/流通市值处于历史均值，两市整体估值水平不高，多数权 重股价在低位，总体并未显示过热。其次，美联储9月降息概率上升，或为中国央行宽松与重启国债交 易提供契机；增量经济支持举措有望出台。因此中国股市上升的动力是健康的，是可持续的，继续看升 中国A/H表现。综合来看，随着市场参与者和投资逻辑的多元化，行情不会 ...

瑞银发布研报称，重申泰格医药（300347）(03347)"买入"评级，目标价由49.1港元升至56.3港元。 泰格医药第二季度收入同比下降0.7%，相较第一季度下降5.8%有所收窄，按季增长7.8%至16.9亿元人民 币，低于市场预期17.8亿元人民币和该行估计18.5亿元人民币。净利润同比下降15.5%，相较第一季度 下降29.6%有所收窄，至2.18亿元人民币，远低于市场预测预期3.09亿元人民币和该行估计3.18亿元人民 币，主要因收入和利润率下降。由于2025年上半年业绩未达预期，该行下调泰格医药2025-2027年收入 和利润率预测，每股盈利预测分别下调9.0%、4.3%及0.1%。 ...

中新网8月31日电 据国家统计局网站消息，国家统计局服务业调查中心和中国物流与采购联合会今日发 布了中国采购经理指数。对此，国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河进行了解读。 8月份，制造业采购经理指数、非制造业商务活动指数和综合PMI产出指数分别为49.4%、50.3%和 50.5%，比上月上升0.1、0.2和0.3个百分点，三大指数均有所回升，我国经济景气水平总体继续保持扩 张。 一、制造业采购经理指数小幅回升 8月份，制造业PMI升至49.4%，景气水平较上月有所改善。 (一)产需指数均有回升。生产指数为50.8%，比上月上升0.3个百分点，连续4个月位于临界点以上，制造 业生产扩张加快；新订单指数为49.5%，比上月上升0.1个百分点。从行业看，医药、计算机通信电子设 备等行业生产指数和新订单指数均明显高于制造业总体，产需较快释放；纺织服装服饰、木材加工及家 具、化学原料及化学制品等行业两个指数均低于临界点，产需仍显不足。在制造业生产回升的带动下， 近期企业采购活动有所加快，采购量指数升至50.4%。 (二)价格指数连续回升。主要原材料购进价格指数和出厂价格指数分别为53.3%和49.1%，比上月上 ...

9月1日，港股三大指数集体走强。截至收盘，恒生指数涨2.15%，国企指数涨1.95%，恒生科技指数涨2.2%。 分板块看，阿里概念股、回港中概股、云办公、云计算、人工智能、科网股等板块均涨势喜人。阿里巴巴-W（09988.HK）领涨，涨幅达18.5%；百 度集团-SW（09888.HK）涨3.86%，贝壳-W（02423.HK）涨3.6%，京东集团-SW（09618.HK）涨3.06%。 芯片股、机器人概念等板块也表现活跃；其它方面，煤炭股、油气股、重型机械股等亦纷纷飘红。 跌幅榜上，汽车产业链中，包括锂电池、特斯拉概念、汽车等板块纷纷下滑。其中，敏实集团（00425.HK）跌7.91%，比亚迪股份（01211.HK）跌 5.24%，耐世特（01316.HK）跌4.51%，中创新航（03931.HK）跌3.79%，金力永磁（06680.HK）跌2.86%，广汽集团（02238.HK）跌3.68%，吉利 汽车（00175.HK）跌2.25%。 消息面，9月1日，针对近日网络传闻"阿里紧急追加寒武纪思元370订单至15万片"一事，阿里云相关人士回应称，阿里云始终坚持"一云多芯"策略 支持国产供应链，但所谓采购15 ...

中经记者 谭志娟 北京报道 市场信心的回暖同样值得期待。生产经营活动预期指数为53.7%，比上月上升1.1个百分点，连续两个月 回升。多数制造业企业对未来市场信心有所增强。 国家统计局服务业调查中心高级统计师赵庆河解读时表示，从行业看，通用设备、铁路船舶航空航天设 备等行业生产经营活动预期指数均位于58.0%以上较高景气区间，企业对行业发展预期更为乐观。 8月非制造业延续扩张态势。相关数据显示，服务业商务活动指数为50.5%，比上月上升0.5个百分点， 升至年内高点。业界专家认为，这主要是暑期消费带动居民出行和文娱活动升温，其中旅游相关行业市 场比较活跃；同时，8月国内股市大幅走强，带动资本市场服务商务活动指数上升。从市场预期看，业 务活动预期指数为57.0%，比上月上升0.4个百分点，表明服务业企业对近期市场发展前景较为乐观。 展望未来，民银研究认为，随着政策效应持续发挥，以及进入"金九银十"的生产销售旺季，各项经济指 标有望继续环比改善。 三大指数齐升的背后，是我国经济在天气影响减弱、政策发力见效、外部环境边际改善等多重因素推动 下，景气水平总体向好的生动写照，也为后续经济持续回升注入信心。 东方金诚首席 ...

Quantitative Models and Construction Methods Model Name: Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Model Construction Idea**: The model aims to optimize the selection of stocks from the broker gold stock pool to outperform the median of active equity funds[39][43]. - **Model Construction Process**: - The model uses the broker gold stock pool as the stock selection space and constraint benchmark. - It employs portfolio optimization to control deviations in individual stocks and styles from the broker gold stock pool. - The industry distribution of all public funds is used as the industry allocation benchmark. - The model's detailed construction method can be found in the report "Broker Gold Stock Full Analysis - Data, Modeling, and Practice" published on February 18, 2022[39][43]. - **Model Evaluation**: The model has shown stable performance historically, consistently outperforming the active equity fund index from 2018 to 2022, ranking in the top 30% of active equity funds each year[12][39]. Model Backtesting Results Broker Gold Stock Performance Enhancement Portfolio - **Absolute Return (Monthly)**: 15.49%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Monthly)**: 3.59%[5][42] - **Absolute Return (Year-to-Date)**: 34.01%[5][42] - **Excess Return Relative to Active Equity Fund Index (Year-to-Date)**: 5.72%[5][42] - **Ranking in Active Equity Funds (Year-to-Date)**: 30.38% percentile (1054/3469)[5][42] Quantitative Factors and Construction Methods Factor Name: Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of net profit in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net profit for the current quarter. - Compare it to the net profit of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Net Profit Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Net Profit} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Net Profit}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter ROE - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the return on equity for a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the net income for the quarter. - Divide it by the average shareholders' equity for the quarter. - The formula is: $ \text{ROE} = \frac{\text{Net Income}}{\text{Average Shareholders' Equity}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Name: Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Factor Construction Idea**: This factor measures the growth rate of revenue in a single quarter[3][28]. - **Factor Construction Process**: - Calculate the revenue for the current quarter. - Compare it to the revenue of the same quarter in the previous year. - The formula is: $ \text{Revenue Growth Rate} = \frac{\text{Current Quarter Revenue} - \text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}}{\text{Previous Year Same Quarter Revenue}} \times 100\% $ - **Factor Evaluation**: This factor has performed well recently[3][28]. Factor Backtesting Results Single Quarter Net Profit Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter ROE - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28]. Single Quarter Revenue Growth Rate - **Performance**: This factor has shown good performance recently[3][28].

2025 年 9 月 1 日 股指期货将震荡整理 白银期货再创上市以来新高 震荡偏强 黄金、铜、镍、豆粕期货将偏强震荡 玻璃、纯碱期货将 震荡偏弱 螺纹钢、铁矿石、焦煤、原油期货将偏弱震荡 陶金峰 期货投资咨询从业资格号：Z0000372 邮箱：taojinfeng@gtht.com 【正文】 【声明】 本报告的观点和信息仅供风险承受能力合适的投资者参考。本报告难以设置访问权限，若给您造成不 便，敬请谅解。若您并非风险承受能力合适的投资者，请勿阅读、订阅或接收任何相关信息。本报告不构 成具体业务或产品的推介，亦不应被视为相应金融衍生品的投资建议。请您根据自身的风险承受能力自行 作出投资决定并自主承担投资风险，不应凭借本内容进行具体操作。 【期货行情前瞻要点】 氧化铝期货主力合约 AO2601 大概率将偏弱震荡，并将下探支撑位 2989 和 2950 元/吨，阻力位 3052 和 3083 元/吨。 锌期货主力合约 ZN2510 大概率将偏强震荡，并将上攻阻力位 22320 和 22390 元/吨，支撑位 22080 和 22030 元/吨。 通过宏观基本面分析和黄金分割线、水平线、日均线等技术面分析，预期今日 ...