Market Overview - As of 10:29 AM, the Shanghai Composite Index decreased by 0.05% with a trading volume of 464.51 million shares and a turnover of 631.45 billion yuan, representing a 10.61% decrease compared to the previous trading day [1]. Industry Performance - The top-performing sectors included: - Comprehensive: +1.26% with a turnover of 9.93 billion yuan, led by Tianchen Co., which rose by 10.00% [1]. - Steel: +1.09% with a turnover of 47.44 billion yuan, led by Liugang Co., which increased by 10.08% [1]. - Retail: +0.93% with a turnover of 108.41 billion yuan, led by Guoguang Chain, which rose by 9.98% [1]. - The sectors with the largest declines included: - Public Utilities: -1.00% with a turnover of 141.00 billion yuan, led by C Huaxin, which fell by 8.36% [2]. - Banking: -0.66% with a turnover of 85.43 billion yuan, led by CITIC Bank, which decreased by 1.29% [2]. - Oil and Petrochemicals: -0.62% with a turnover of 33.82 billion yuan, led by China Petroleum, which dropped by 1.11% [2]. Notable Stocks - Chengdu Xian Dao in the pharmaceutical sector saw a significant increase of 20.02% with a turnover of 632.76 billion yuan [1]. - Wuxin Tunnel Equipment in the machinery sector rose by 19.31% with a turnover of 487.80 billion yuan [1]. - Anning Co. in the non-ferrous metals sector experienced a decline of 5.85% with a turnover of 194.00 billion yuan [1].

Summary of Key Points Core Viewpoint - As of July 11, the market's latest financing balance reached 1,862.586 billion yuan, showing an increase of 2.082 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with 14 out of 31 industries experiencing an increase in financing balance [1][2]. Industry Financing Balance Changes - The non-bank financial sector saw the largest increase in financing balance, rising by 2.273 billion yuan to a total of 159.278 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 1.45% [1]. - Other industries with notable increases include: - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 1.210 billion yuan, total 82.105 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.50% [1]. - Computer: increased by 0.632 billion yuan, total 143.933 billion yuan, growth rate of 0.44% [1]. - Banking: increased by 0.532 billion yuan, total 57.877 billion yuan, growth rate of 0.93% [1]. - Conversely, 17 industries reported a decrease in financing balance, with the electronic sector experiencing the largest drop of 1.431 billion yuan, totaling 213.174 billion yuan, a decline of 0.67% [2]. Notable Increases and Decreases by Industry - Industries with the highest financing balance increases: - Steel: increased by 0.229 billion yuan, total 14.341 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.62% [1]. - Non-ferrous metals: increased by 1.210 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.50% [1]. - Non-bank financial: increased by 2.273 billion yuan, growth rate of 1.45% [1]. - Industries with the largest decreases: - Food and beverage: decreased by 0.387 billion yuan, total 50.716 billion yuan, decline of 0.76% [2]. - Electronic: decreased by 14.31 billion yuan, total 2131.74 billion yuan, decline of 0.67% [2]. - Pharmaceutical and biological: decreased by 6.46 billion yuan, total 1326.05 billion yuan, decline of 0.48% [2].

今日各行业主力资金流向一览 | 行业名称 | 成交量 | 成交量 较昨日 | 换手率 | 涨跌幅 | 今日 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | （亿股） | 增减 | （%） | （%） | 主力资金 净流入（亿元） | | | | （%） | | | | | 非银金融 | 83.96 | 13.28 | 2.01 | 1.37 | 34.70 | | 房地产 | 63.50 | 85.74 | 2.91 | 3.19 | 22.28 | | 银行 | 58.82 | 36.92 | 0.44 | 0.92 | 20.49 | | 有色金属 | 48.79 | -5.13 | 2.23 | 0.98 | 19.36 | | 医药生物 | 72.26 | 6.11 | 2.65 | 0.73 | 13.72 | | 煤炭 | 22.32 | 43.17 | 1.71 | 1.10 | 7.98 | | 石油石化 | 18.29 | 21.46 | 0.50 | 1.54 | 5.25 | | 建筑装饰 | 44.35 | 21.29 | 1.58 | 1.05 ...

Group 1 - The article highlights the strong growth potential of leading companies in sectors such as the internet, artificial intelligence, biotechnology, and new energy, emphasizing the importance of the Hong Kong Stock Connect as a channel for mainland investors to allocate overseas assets [1] - The Southern CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology ETF (code: 159269) was officially listed on the Shenzhen Stock Exchange on July 10, providing a one-stop solution for investors to access leading Hong Kong technology stocks [1] - The CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index, which the ETF closely tracks, showcases unique competitive advantages in asset allocation, covering key industries like the internet, new energy vehicles, and innovative pharmaceuticals while balancing traditional technology sectors [1][2] Group 2 - The index focuses on fundamental stock selection, encompassing leading technology companies in Hong Kong, with a strict investment scope in critical areas such as communications, internet, biotechnology, electronics, semiconductors, new energy, and aerospace [2] - Historical performance indicates that the Hong Kong technology sector has demonstrated significant advantages over a 20-year market period, with the CSI Hong Kong Stock Connect Technology Index achieving a cumulative return of 227% and an annualized return of approximately 12% as of April 30, 2025 [2] - Compared to the cyclical volatility of the A-share technology sector, the Hong Kong technology sector has shown more stable long-term excess return capabilities, making it an important direction for investors looking to allocate technology assets [2] Group 3 - Southern Fund, as a leading asset management institution in China, focuses on customer needs and continuously optimizes product layout and service capabilities, with an index investment team averaging over 10 years of experience in ETF management [3] - The team has established a comprehensive quantitative research and investment system, utilizing a self-developed intelligent management system for precise control of investment portfolios [3]

7月7日，沪指上涨0.02%，深成指下跌0.70%，创业板指下跌1.21%，沪深300指数下跌0.43%。可交易A 股中，上涨的有3255只，占比60.24%，下跌的1978只。 资金面上，今日主力资金全天净流出143.37亿元，已连续8个交易日资金呈净流出状态。其中，创业板 主力资金净流出84.04亿元；科创板主力资金净流出13.75亿元；沪深300成份股主力资金净流出56.88亿 元。 分行业来看，申万所属的一级行业中，今日上涨的有18个，涨幅居前的行业为综合、公用事业，涨幅为 2.57%、1.87%。跌幅居前的行业为煤炭、医药生物，跌幅为2.04%、0.97%。 今日各行业资金流向 | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | 行业 | 日涨跌幅（%） | 资金流向（亿元） | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 轻工制造 | 1.52 | 9.30 | 国防军工 | 0.09 | -1.81 | | 房地产 | 1.68 | 9.17 | 汽车 | -0.11 | -1.93 | | 美容护理 | 0.46 | 6.54 | 环保 | 1.10 | ...

Market Pricing Status - The market trading heat has slightly declined, with a decrease in the intensity of capital inflow from Guotai Haitong, and the average daily trading volume of the entire A-share market has decreased from 1.5 trillion to 1.4 trillion yuan [4][7] - The proportion of stocks that increased in value has dropped to 53.34%, and the median weekly return for A-share stocks has decreased to 0.3% [4][9] - The trading concentration has decreased, with only three industries maintaining a turnover rate above the historical 90th percentile, down from seven [4][20] A-share Liquidity Tracking - Foreign capital has turned to inflow, while ETF funds have seen an increase in outflow [21][27] - The net inflow of foreign capital into A-shares was 2.9 million USD as of July 4, with the northbound trading proportion dropping to 10.5% [4][41] - The net buy of financing funds was 189 billion yuan, with the total margin balance rising to 1.9 trillion yuan [4][27] A-share Industry Allocation - There is a significant divergence in funding within the electric power equipment industry, with foreign capital flowing out while financing funds flowed in [4][19] - The top net inflows from financing funds were in electric power equipment (+29.7 billion yuan) and non-ferrous metals (+24.3 billion yuan), while oil and petrochemicals (-3.0 billion yuan) and construction decoration (-0.8 billion yuan) saw net outflows [4][19] - The ETF inflows were concentrated in non-bank financials (+7.7 billion yuan) and electronics (+5.3 billion yuan), while the pharmaceutical and banking sectors saw significant outflows [4][19] Hong Kong and Global Fund Flow - The net inflow of southbound funds has decreased to 169.3 billion yuan, which is at the 95th percentile since 2022 [4][19] - Global foreign capital has returned to the US and Chinese markets, with the US seeing a net inflow of 1.8 billion USD and China 1.04 billion USD [4][19]

Market Overview - The market experienced an overall increase in trading volume but showed a downward trend, with an average daily trading volume of approximately 1.215 trillion yuan [1] - Value stocks outperformed growth stocks, with large-cap stocks outperforming small-cap stocks [1] - The banking, telecommunications, and electronics sectors performed well, while beauty care, textiles, and pharmaceuticals lagged behind [1] Macro Outlook - Domestic demand shows signs of recovery, but several consumption data points, particularly in real estate and automotive sectors, are weakening [2] - New housing sales in major cities are significantly lower than the same period last year, with only Beijing showing stronger performance [2] - Rising oil prices due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the Israel-Palestine conflict, pose a risk of stagflation [2] - Key areas of focus for the second half of the year include durable goods consumption, export growth, and potential policy responses [2] International Developments - The escalation of the Israel-Palestine conflict has led to a significant increase in oil prices, with WTI crude rising from a low of $55 to around $75 [3] - The Federal Reserve maintained its interest rate target range at 4.25%-4.50% during its June meeting, indicating a cautious approach amid inflation uncertainties [3] - The risk of stagflation is increasing globally, which could negatively impact risk assets [3] Market Expectations - The market shows resilience compared to the previous two years, despite existing pressures on the fundamentals [4] - The upcoming policy window in July may lead to market reactions based on new policy stimuli [4] - There is an expectation of a potential market rebound driven by policy support, although short-term adjustments may still be necessary [4] Market Style - The narrowing of thematic trading suggests that large-cap stocks may offer better elasticity and value compared to small-cap stocks [5] - The market is expected to engage in policy trading in the first three weeks of July, with historical trends indicating that large-cap stocks may outperform [5] - Suggested sectors for attention include precious metals, military industry, and high-dividend stocks, which may benefit from policy support [5]

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core View of the Report - Due to the impact of risk - aversion sentiment, domestic stock indices continued to fluctuate weakly. It is recommended to make long - term allocations for IH2509 and IF2509, and move positions from IM2506 to IM2509 as the June contract of IM is approaching maturity and its annualized basis rate is relatively high [3]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - As of June 20, 2025, most domestic and foreign indices declined this week. The Nasdaq rose 0.22%, the S&P 500 fell 0.15%, and the Hang Seng Technology Index fell 2.08%. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 0.51%, the CSI 1000 Index fell 1.74%, the SSE 50 Index fell 0.10%, the ChiNext Index fell 1.66%, and the STAR 50 Index fell 1.55%. In terms of industries, most of the 31 Shenwan primary industry indices declined, with sectors such as beauty care, textile and apparel, and pharmaceutical biology falling more than 3%, while only a few sectors such as banking and communications rose [11][12]. Liquidity - In May, the growth rate of social financing was stable, and the growth rate of M2 declined slightly. The net MLF investment in May was 375 billion yuan, and the 10 - year government bond yield was around 1.65%. The growth rate of social financing remained relatively high, with government bond financing being an important support, but credit growth was still weak. The M2 growth rate declined slightly but remained stable overall, the M1 growth rate increased, and the M1 - M2 gap narrowed [22]. Trading Data and Sentiment - The escalation of the Israel - Iran conflict led to the weakening of stock indices this week. The trading volume of the two markets shrank to around one trillion yuan. The number of new A - share accounts opened in January was 1.57 million, in February was 2.83 million, in March was 3.06 million, in April dropped to 1.92 million, and in May continued to drop to 1.555 million [34]. Index Valuation - Index valuations are in the median range. As of June 20, 2025, the latest PB of the Shanghai Composite Index was 14.64 with a quantile of 64.72, and the latest PE of the Wande All - A Index was 19.18 with a quantile of 01.82. In terms of major stock indices, the valuation quantiles are in the order of CSI 1000 > CSI 500 > SSE 300 > SSE 50 [51]. Index Industry Weights (as of December 31, 2024) - In the SSE 50, the weights of banking, food and beverage, and non - bank finance are relatively high, at 19.4%, 16.57%, and 13.07% respectively, and the electronics industry has become the fourth - largest weighted industry. - The weights of the SSE 300 are relatively dispersed, with the top three weighted industries being banking, non - bank finance, and electronics. - The top three weighted industries of the CSI 500 and CSI 1000 are exactly the same, namely electronics, pharmaceutical biology, and power equipment, but the electronics industry in the CSI 1000 has a higher weight [52].

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market is experiencing limited upward elasticity, and investors need to remain cautious due to internal and external pressures leading to short-term adjustments [3][11]. Market Performance - During the week of June 16-20, the A-share market showed a slight decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index down by 0.51% to close at 3360 points, and the Wind All A Index down by 1.07% [4]. - Among the 31 primary industries, only the banking and telecommunications sectors saw gains, while sectors like beauty care, textiles, pharmaceuticals, non-ferrous metals, and social services faced significant declines [5]. - The Hong Kong market mirrored the A-share performance, with the Hang Seng Index down 1.52% and the Hang Seng Technology Index down 2.03% [5]. Economic Data and Trends - Recent macroeconomic data indicates a decline in fiscal revenue and expenditure for the first five months of the year, attributed to factors such as falling PPI and a slowdown in land sales [7][9]. - Manufacturing investment grew by 8.5%, while infrastructure investment was at 5.6%, contrasting with a 10.7% decline in real estate investment [9]. - Retail sales for the same period increased by 6.4%, driven by initiatives like trade-in programs and tourism [10]. External Influences - Ongoing international issues, including U.S.-China trade negotiations and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, are affecting investor sentiment and market performance [10]. - The upcoming policy window in July is critical, with expectations for potential tariff adjustments and trade discussions [10]. Future Outlook - Despite concerns over domestic demand resilience, there is a high expectation for policies to stabilize the capital market, suggesting that while short-term adjustments may occur, significant declines are unlikely [11]. - The combination of monetary and fiscal policies is essential for economic strength, with a potential fiscal stimulus expected post-August [13]. - In the current market environment, defensive stocks, particularly those with solid fundamentals in the new consumption sector, are favored, while technology stocks with performance metrics are also seen as attractive [15].

宏观经济 | 证券研究报告 — 总量周报 2025 年 6 月 22 日 周度金融市场跟踪 股票方面，本周 A 股整体下跌，小盘股走势弱于大盘股。全周累计看，沪深 300 本 周下跌 0.5%，中证1000 下跌 1.7%，中证 2000 下跌 2.2%。恒生指数本周下跌 1.5%， 恒生科技指数下跌 2.0%。行业方面，银行、通信和电子领涨。值得注意的是在市场 整体走弱的背景下，本周银行指数大幅上涨 2.6%，申万银行指数收盘至历史最高水 平。前期上涨较多的美容护理、纺织服装和医药生物领跌（图表 9），医药生物在连 续多周上涨后本周大幅下跌 4.4%。风格上，本周高估值风格（高市盈率和高市净率 指数）与低估值风格（低市盈率和低市净率指数）连续第二周走势相反（高估值下跌， 低估值上涨）。高估值资产的整体下跌体现了当前市场的避险情绪。周内看，周一（6 月 16 日）市场整体上涨，上午统计局发布经济数据，5 月份国民经济运行总体平稳、 稳中有进，全天超 3500 只股票上涨。周二（6 月 17 日）市场震荡。周三（6 月 18 日）上午陆家嘴论坛"一行两局一会"领导分别发言并发布了一系列政策举措，其中 证监会推出 ...