Group 1: Economic Performance - In Q1 2025, Jiangxi Province's operating entities reported a 3.4% year-on-year increase in invoiced sales revenue, indicating a stable and improving economic performance [1] - The manufacturing sector showed robust growth, with a 9.3% year-on-year increase in sales revenue, supported by strong performance in the non-ferrous metal industry, which grew by 20.3% [1] - The sales revenue from copper processing increased by 19.6%, driven by strong demand from new energy and power grid investments, while non-ferrous metal alloy manufacturing related to copper-based new materials surged by 80.3% [1] Group 2: Manufacturing Sector Insights - The equipment manufacturing sector experienced a 16.6% year-on-year increase in sales revenue, with specific segments such as general equipment, specialized equipment, computer communication equipment, and automotive manufacturing growing by 21.7%, 16%, 13.4%, and 13.3% respectively [1] Group 3: Service Sector Growth - The service sector is accelerating, with modern services such as information transmission, software, and IT services, as well as leasing and business services, showing significant growth, with sales revenues increasing by 34.8%, 14.6%, and 20.4% year-on-year respectively [2] - The digital economy is rapidly integrating with modern services, as evidenced by the sales revenue growth of digital technology applications, digital product services, and digital factor-driven industries, which reached 31.6%, 29.7%, and 20.5% year-on-year [2] - The life services sector also demonstrated strong vitality, with a 15.2% year-on-year increase in sales revenue, reflecting a 16.2 percentage point improvement compared to the previous year [2]

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Short - term price is volatile, and attention should be paid to correction risks [14] - US Dollar Index: Short - term volatility [18] - US Stock Index Futures: Short - term weak and volatile [21] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [24] - Stock Index Futures: Suggest balanced allocation [28] - Thermal Coal: Price may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in the short - term, and it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] - Iron Ore: Short - term weak and volatile [31] - Edible Oils: Expected to be volatile under the influence of US biofuel policies [35] - Coking Coal/Coke: Weak in the medium - and long - term [36] - Sugar: Second consecutive year of production increase brings little pressure to the market [41] - Corn Starch: CS07 - C07 may remain in low - level oscillation [43] - Cotton: Cautiously optimistic about the future, but short - term may be volatile due to insufficient demand [47] - Corn: Spot and futures prices are expected to rise [48] - Live Pigs: Maintain the view of shorting on rebounds [50] - Soybean Meal: Futures prices are temporarily volatile [54] - Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil: Short - term single - side light - position waiting and see, spot hedging on rebounds [59] - Alumina: Suggest waiting and seeing [62] - Lithium Carbonate: Long - term bearish, but short - term decline space is limited [64] - Polysilicon: Uncertain, pay attention to supply - side changes [68] - Industrial Silicon: Spot price may bottom out, but short - side risks exist for futures [70] - Nickel: Short - term range - bound operation, consider shorting on rebounds in the medium - term [73] - Lead: Short - term waiting and seeing, start to pay attention to medium - term long opportunities [75] - Zinc: Short - term shorting on rebounds, consider long - short spreads in the medium - term [77] - Carbon Emissions: Short - term volatility [79] - Crude Oil: Weak short - term rebound drivers [83] - Bottle Chips: Processing fees are expected to remain low, pay attention to supply - side changes [85] - Soda Ash: Short - term support from maintenance, medium - term shorting on rebounds [86] - Float Glass: Prices will remain low, pay attention to real - estate policy changes [88] Core Views - Tariff issues between the US and the EU have a significant impact on the financial and commodity markets. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has triggered market risk - aversion, affecting the prices of gold, the US dollar, and stock index futures. The postponement of tariffs has also changed market sentiment and expectations [12][13][17] - The supply and demand situation in the commodity market is complex. In the coal market, over - supply persists, and prices are under pressure. In the agricultural product market, factors such as production, inventory, and consumption seasons affect prices. In the metal market, factors like production capacity, inventory, and policy adjustments play important roles [29][39][64] Summary by Directory 1. Financial News and Reviews 1.1 Macro Strategy (Gold) - Trump threatened to impose 50% tariffs on the EU and 25% tariffs on Apple, which triggered market risk - aversion and pushed up gold prices. Then he postponed the EU tariff deadline to July 9. Short - term gold prices are volatile, and the next wave of increase needs a catalyst [12][13] 1.2 Macro Strategy (Foreign Exchange Futures - US Dollar Index) - Trump postponed the EU tariff deadline, indicating that the US and the EU have entered a negotiation window. The short - term market risk preference has increased, and the US dollar is expected to be volatile in the short - term [17] 1.3 Macro Strategy (US Stock Index Futures) - The US - EU tariff negotiation is deadlocked, and the risk of tariff hikes still exists. The market sentiment has weakened, and US stocks are expected to be volatile and weak in the short - term [21] 1.4 Macro Strategy (Treasury Bond Futures) - The central bank conducted 1425 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations. The market lacks a clear trading theme, and the bond market is in a narrow - range oscillation. It is bullish in the medium - term, but timing is crucial for going long [22][23] 1.5 Macro Strategy (Stock Index Futures) - Bank deposit and large - scale certificate of deposit interest rates have been lowered. Trump's threat to impose tariffs on the EU has put pressure on global risk assets, and domestic stock index futures suggest balanced allocation [25][28] 2. Commodity News and Reviews 2.1 Black Metal (Thermal Coal) - South Korea's coal imports in April decreased by 20.16% year - on - year. Due to the imbalance between supply and demand, high - cost imported coal has been squeezed out. Coal prices may stabilize at 600 yuan/ton in May, but it's hard to bottom out without large - scale production cuts [29] 2.2 Black Metal (Iron Ore) - The full - production time of the Iron Bridge project has been postponed to the 2028 fiscal year. Iron ore prices are in an oscillating market, and are expected to be weak and volatile in the short - term [31] 2.3 Agricultural Products (Soybean Oil/Rapeseed Oil/Palm Oil) - Malaysian palm oil production increased in May, and export data varied. The US biofuel policy affects soybean oil prices. The edible oil market is expected to be volatile [34][35] 2.4 Black Metal (Coking Coal/Coke) - The price of metallurgical coke in the Lvliang market is weakly stable. Coking coal prices are falling, and the supply - demand structure is difficult to change without significant supply - side cuts. Coal and coke are expected to be weak in the medium - and long - term [36] 2.5 Agricultural Products (Sugar) - The 24/25 sugar - making season in the country has ended. Yunnan's sugar production is expected to reach a record high. Although the national sugar production has increased, the pressure on the market is not large due to the fast sales progress [39] 2.6 Agricultural Products (Corn Starch) - The start - up rate of starch sugar has increased slightly. The supply - demand situation of starch is expected to improve. The CS07 - C07 spread is expected to remain in low - level oscillation [42][43] 2.7 Agricultural Products (Cotton) - EU clothing imports increased in March, mainly due to price increases. China's cotton exports increased in April. US cotton new - crop signing is sluggish. Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile in the short - term, and the future is cautiously optimistic [44][45][47] 2.8 Agricultural Products (Corn) - Corn warehouse receipts reached a high, and the basis turned positive. The new wheat crop may have a reduced yield. Corn supply and demand gap has not been filled, and prices are expected to rise [48] 2.9 Agricultural Products (Live Pigs) - The market supply of live pigs will continue to be excessive in the future. It is recommended to short on rebounds [50] 2.10 Agricultural Products (Soybean Meal) - The drought area in the US soybean - producing area has decreased. The supply pressure of soybean meal will gradually increase. Futures prices are temporarily volatile [51][53] 2.11 Black Metal (Rebar/Hot - Rolled Coil) - The use of special bonds to acquire land has accelerated. Steel production and inventory data show that steel prices are under pressure, and short - term prices are expected to be oscillating [55][59] 2.12 Non - Ferrous Metal (Alumina) - National alumina inventory decreased. Prices increased slightly. Alumina production capacity is expected to gradually recover [60][61] 2.13 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lithium Carbonate) - The EU has postponed two matters of the battery bill, giving Chinese lithium - battery enterprises a buffer. The long - term bearish pattern remains unchanged, but the short - term decline space is limited [63][64] 2.14 Non - Ferrous Metal (Polysilicon) - A photovoltaic enterprise plans to invest in Indonesia. Polysilicon prices are slightly falling. The supply - demand situation is uncertain, and attention should be paid to supply - side changes [65][66] 2.15 Non - Ferrous Metal (Industrial Silicon) - An industrial silicon technical transformation project has started. Supply pressure is increasing, and demand is not improving. Spot prices lack the impetus to rebound [69] 2.16 Non - Ferrous Metal (Nickel) - LME nickel inventory decreased. The supply - demand situation of nickel is complex, with limited upward and downward space. Short - term range - bound operation and medium - term shorting on rebounds are recommended [71][73] 2.17 Non - Ferrous Metal (Lead) - The LME lead spread is at a discount. The supply - demand situation of lead is weak in the short - term, but medium - term long opportunities are emerging [74] 2.18 Non - Ferrous Metal (Zinc) - The LME zinc spread is at a discount. Zinc mine processing fees are increasing, and supply is expected to be loose. Short - term shorting on rebounds and medium - term long - short spreads are recommended [76][77] 2.19 Energy Chemical (Carbon Emissions) - EU carbon prices are oscillating. Future temperature and wind power generation in Europe will affect carbon prices [78] 2.20 Energy Chemical (Crude Oil) - Iran - US nuclear negotiations are progressing. US oil drilling rigs have decreased. Short - term crude oil price rebound drivers are weak [80][81] 2.21 Energy Chemical (Bottle Chips) - Bottle chip factory export prices are mostly stable, with partial slight decreases. Supply pressure is increasing, and processing fees are expected to remain low [84][85] 2.22 Energy Chemical (Soda Ash) - Soda ash prices are falling. Supply is slightly adjusted, and demand is average. Short - term maintenance may support prices, and medium - term shorting on rebounds is recommended [86] 2.23 Energy Chemical (Float Glass) - Glass futures prices are falling. The spot market is stable in some areas and weak in others. Glass prices are expected to remain low, and attention should be paid to real - estate policy changes [87][88]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The bond market is currently in a state of short - term weakness due to the decline in expectations of central bank easing, but the market has not given up on trading for future easing. Long - term and ultra - long - term bonds are expected to perform better than medium - and short - term bonds, and far - month contracts are better than near - month contracts. Prudent investors can stay on the sidelines [7]. - The current domestic economic data shows a comprehensive recovery, but the financial assets are weak because the market anticipates that the current high - growth data may be the peak in the future. There are also strong expectations of economic weakness under future tariff conflicts [24]. - Globally, the US economic data is showing signs of weakening, especially in the service sector. The US simple - minded tariff - adding policy will lead to a significant slowdown in the US economic growth and bring recession and deflationary pressures to non - US countries [24][27]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Logic and Strategy (P3 - 4) - In the bond market, the short - term weakness is due to the disappointment of central bank easing expectations. The market still has expectations for future easing, and the phenomenon of "lengthening duration for defense" is emerging, with short - term bonds weakening and long - term and ultra - long - term bonds relatively strong [7]. - For equity assets, the bottom is relatively clear under the strong support of the "national team", but the upward elasticity requires both micro and macro drivers [7]. 3.2 Macro Main Asset Fund Flow Changes (P5 - 6) - Domestic bond yields fluctuated slightly, US bond yields declined for the second consecutive week, the US dollar index was flat, gold soared and then retreated, and the commodity and equity markets were mainly in a volatile state [9]. 3.3 Recent Macro Data Analysis and Review (P7 - 13) - Domestic: The year - on - year growth rate of the profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in March declined significantly, while the cumulative growth rate from January to March increased. The main contributing sectors were non - ferrous metals, special equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment. The inventory form showed weak restocking willingness at the enterprise level [7][18]. - Overseas: US economic data weakened, with the service sector PMI significantly lower than the previous value and expectations. Although the manufacturing PMI rebounded, it was not enough to offset the decline in the service sector. The market has priced in the expected significant decline of US macroeconomic data to some extent [7]. 3.4 Fundamentals Analysis and Bond Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P14 - 24) - After the tax - payment period, the fund flow fluctuated and declined. The central bank announced a 600 billion yuan MLF operation on the 25th, with 100 billion yuan due this month. The LPR quote remained unchanged, and the market's expectations for reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts continued to decline [7][32]. - The fund flow remained loose this week, falling below 1.7% on Friday. The disappointment of easing expectations dragged down the short - term bond market, especially since bond assets implied an expected interest rate cut of approximately 30bp [7][32]. 3.5 Equity Broad - Based Index Fundamentals, Liquidity, and Futures - Spot Indicator Monitoring (P25 - 29) No relevant content provided. 3.6 Medium - Term Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P30 - 46) - The Politburo meeting set the tone for the economic situation as improving but facing increasing external shocks. Policy priorities are employment > short - term economic growth and high - quality development > extensive strong stimulus [7][19]. - Fiscal policy focuses on accelerating the use of local bonds and special treasury bonds, and there is no mention of additional issuance. Monetary policy has changed from "seizing the opportunity" to "timely", reducing the short - term necessity and freedom of interest rate cuts but increasing the autonomy of future monetary easing [7][19]. 3.7 Long - Wave Macroeconomic Fundamentals Tracking and Monitoring (P47 - 48) No relevant content provided.

Group 1 - The article highlights various industry malpractices exposed during the CCTV "3·15" gala, including issues with sanitary products, high-interest electronic loans, and privacy violations [2] - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) is intensifying efforts to combat false information in the stock market, focusing on early and severe penalties for violators [2] - The State Administration for Market Regulation has announced a significant increase in product quality inspections, particularly for items posing safety risks [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the increased openness to foreign investment in China's service sector, with actual foreign investment reaching 120.49 billion yuan in the first two months of the year, accounting for over 70% of total foreign investment [5] - A new national food safety reporting system is set to launch in May, aimed at improving internal reporting channels for food safety violations [5] - The "National Consumer Association Smart 315 Platform" has been launched to enhance consumer engagement and address issues related to smart technology [5] Group 3 - Insurance companies have been actively increasing their stakes in listed companies, with seven companies being targeted this year, primarily in the banking sector [9] - Strategic metals have seen a price surge, particularly antimony and cobalt, leading to significant gains in the A-share non-ferrous metal sector [9] - The Shenzhen Stock Exchange is conducting targeted visits to listed companies to provide support and address their concerns [9] Group 4 - The article notes that the CSRC has issued administrative penalties for stock manipulation, with fines totaling approximately 2.8 billion yuan for one individual and 1.8 billion yuan for another [10] - Airlines have issued warnings regarding third-party sales practices that violate passenger rights, including excessive fees for ticket changes [10] - The article mentions the exposure of a new financial scam involving mobile phone lotteries, with specific companies being named [10] Group 5 - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is investigating companies involved in illegal marketing practices, particularly those using automated calls for promotions [17] - The Central Internet Information Office is promoting digital rural development to enhance agricultural productivity and digital literacy [17] - The State Administration for Market Regulation reported a significant increase in product recalls, with 1,100 instances in 2024, a 42.7% increase from the previous year [17] Group 6 - The article highlights the successful launch of a large unmanned transport aircraft in China, which is expected to be operational by 2026 [18] - The completion of a major energy storage project marks a significant advancement in the integration of renewable energy sources [18] - The article discusses the investigation into a company involved in the production of substandard sanitary products, leading to regulatory actions [18]