热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 12月4日内外盘铜价大幅走高，均创历史新高，其中国际铜2601合约日内涨超3%，沪铜2601合约日内涨 超2%，带动有色品种集体走强。昨晚LME铜注册仓单大量转为注销仓单，被市场认为即将大量被提货 的表现，佐证投资者对未来铜价的看好，也凸显了LME库存紧张和全球显性库存结构性问题，成为内 外铜价联袂创新高的理由。当前来看，短期的宏观和基本面问题已然被精矿短缺、长协高升水和库存流 动性问题所取代，市场情绪也逐渐朝着外盘挤仓演进，表现或持续偏强，关注持续性。 宏观也是支撑铜价走高因素之一。美聚焦就业风险，美国11月ADP就业人数减少3.2万人，创2023年3月 以来最大降幅，劳动力市场疲软迹象正在显现。相比于上月就业人数修正成增加4.7万人，这次数据的 反转，使市场再次担忧就业风险，另薪资涨速也出现明显放缓。这份报告是12月美联储议息会议前的最 后一份就业数据，隔夜市场降息预期再次升温，美元走弱，有色金属走强。国内方面，关注即将召开的 中央经济工作会议，关注行业发展是否带动铜存在增量需求。 撰稿：李琪 免责声明：本报告的信息均来源于公开资料，我公司 ...

有色金属日报 2025-12-4 五矿期货早报 | 有色金属 铜 有色金属小组 【行情资讯】 吴坤金 从业资格号：F3036210 交易咨询号：Z0015924 0755-23375135 wukj1@wkqh.cn 曾宇轲 从业资格号：F03121027 交易咨询号：Z0023147 0755-23375139 zengyuke@wkqh.cn 张世骄 从业资格号：F03120988 交易咨询号：Z0023261 0755-23375122 zhangsj3@wkqh.cn 王梓铧 从业资格号：F03130785 0755-23375132 wangzh7@wkqh.cn 刘显杰 从业资格号：F03130746 0755-23375125 liuxianjie@wkqh.cn 陈逸 从业资格号：F03137504 0755-23375125 cheny40@wkqh.cn LME 铜现货供应预期收紧，嘉能可下调 2026 年铜生产指引中值，美国 ADP 就业人数弱于预期，美元 指数走弱，铜价拉涨，昨日伦铜 3M 合约收涨 2.72%至 11448 美元/吨，沪铜主力合约收至 90760 元/ 吨。LME 铜 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions and provides strategy views for various non - ferrous metals. Overall, influenced by factors such as geopolitics, Fed's interest - rate decisions, supply - demand relationships in the industry, and cost factors, different metals show different price trends. Some metals are expected to be strong, some will be in a wide - range shock, and the report gives corresponding trading suggestions and price range references for each metal [5][7][10][12][14][16][19][22][25][28]. 3. Summary by Metal Copper - **Market Information**: Offshore RMB remained strong, domestic equity markets declined, and copper prices oscillated and corrected. LME copper inventory increased, while domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai increased, and the spot import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread widened [4]. - **Strategy View**: Geopolitical factors still pose headwinds, but the market focuses on the Fed's interest - rate meeting. With an increased probability of interest - rate cuts, sentiment is positive. The copper raw - material supply remains tight, and smelting production - cut expectations drive copper prices higher. Short - term supply is expected to increase marginally. Copper prices are expected to remain strong. The operating range for Shanghai copper's main contract is 88,000 - 89,500 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is 11,000 - 11,300 dollars/ton [5]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Aluminum prices rose and then fell. LME aluminum inventory decreased, and domestic aluminum ingot and billet inventory changes varied. The spot in the domestic market was at a discount to the futures, and the trading sentiment was weak [6]. - **Strategy View**: Domestic and LME aluminum ingot inventories are in a downward trend, and the inventory levels are relatively low. Coupled with supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the strong performance of copper prices, the center of aluminum price movement is expected to rise further. The operating range for Shanghai aluminum's main contract is 21,760 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is 2,840 - 2,900 dollars/ton [7]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index rose. LME lead price increased, and domestic social inventory decreased slightly. The refined - scrap spread was 25 yuan/ton, and the lead ingot import profit and loss was 175.01 yuan/ton [9]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of lead ore increased, the operating rate of primary smelting decreased, and that of secondary smelting increased. Downstream battery enterprises' operating rates increased marginally, and domestic visible lead ingot inventory decreased. After two weeks of decline, lead prices returned to the 17,000 - yuan shock center. Fed's interest - rate cuts make the non - ferrous metal industry sentiment positive, and short - term lead prices are expected to be strong [10]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index rose. LME zinc price increased, and domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased. However, the total domestic zinc ingot inventory increased slightly after considering in - transit and factory inventories. The LME zinc monthly spread increased again [11]. - **Strategy View**: The visible inventory of zinc ore increased, but zinc concentrate TC continued to decline, squeezing smelting profits. Downstream operating rates decreased marginally. Although domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly, the overall supply is still in a surplus situation. In the short term, the increase in the LME zinc monthly spread drives zinc prices higher, but in the medium term, zinc prices are expected to show a wide - range shock [12]. Tin - **Market Information**: The Shanghai tin main contract price rose. In October, domestic tin concentrate imports increased significantly, but the conflict in the DRC worsened, affecting tin ore transportation. Yunnan's smelting enterprises still faced raw - material shortages, and Jiangxi's refined tin production remained low. Traditional consumption areas were weak, but emerging areas provided long - term support. After the tin price exceeded 300,000 yuan/ton, the market was reluctant to buy at high prices, and inventory decreased [13]. - **Strategy View**: Although the current tin market demand is weak, the downstream inventory is low, and the supply - side disturbances are the determining factor for short - term prices. Short - term tin prices are likely to be in a strong shock. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range for the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is 38,000 - 41,000 dollars/ton [14]. Nickel - **Market Information**: Nickel prices rebounded slightly. Spot premiums were stable, nickel ore prices were stable, and the decline in nickel - iron prices slowed down [15]. - **Strategy View**: The surplus pressure of nickel is still large, but with the stabilization of nickel - iron prices and the warming of the macro - environment, short - term nickel prices may turn to a shock. It is recommended to wait and see and focus on the trends of nickel - iron and ore prices. The short - term operating range for Shanghai nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is 13,500 - 15,500 dollars/ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate declined, and the LC2605 contract price also decreased. The average battery - grade lithium carbonate premium in the trading market was - 450 yuan [18]. - **Strategy View**: In December, the production schedules of major cathode - material enterprises were mostly flat month - on - month, and domestic lithium carbonate production increased. The short - term supply - demand contradiction is expected to ease marginally, but there are large differences in medium - and long - term demand expectations. The price is likely to fluctuate greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options. The reference operating range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index declined. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the overseas FOB price remained stable. The futures inventory was unchanged, and the ore prices were stable [21]. - **Strategy View**: Overseas ore shipments are expected to recover after the rainy season, and ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity surplus situation is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. However, the current price is close to the cost line of most manufacturers, and the expectation of production cuts is increasing. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The reference operating range for the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless - steel main contract price rose. Spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi remained stable, raw - material prices were stable, futures inventory decreased, and social inventory increased [24]. - **Strategy View**: On the supply side, steel - mill production schedules are high, and spot arrivals are increasing. On the demand side, there is marginal improvement. However, the high cost of nickel - iron squeezes corporate profits. Although demand has recovered, the inventory pressure from high supply is still significant. The short - term stainless - steel price is expected to be in a wide - range shock [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The cast - aluminum alloy price oscillated. The main AD2601 contract price decreased slightly, the weighted contract position rebounded, the trading volume decreased, and the warehouse receipts decreased slightly. The price difference between AL2601 and AD2601 contracts widened, domestic mainstream ADC12 prices increased slightly, and inventory decreased [27]. - **Strategy View**: The cost of cast - aluminum alloy is relatively stable, and policy disruptions on the supply side continue. If the inventory continues to decline, the price of cast - aluminum alloy is expected to rise in a shock [28].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The market's focus has shifted to the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and the increasing probability of a rate cut has kept the sentiment warm. The copper price is expected to be strong in the short - term due to tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts [5]. - The aluminum price is expected to rise further as domestic and LME aluminum inventories are in a downward trend, with low inventory levels, and supported by supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price [7]. - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment to the non - ferrous metals industry, despite some industry contradictions [9]. - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the current weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, reducing its attractiveness to speculative funds [11]. - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor for short - term prices, although demand is currently weak [13]. - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms, despite large surplus pressure [15]. - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly, and it is recommended to wait and see or use options, while paying attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics [18]. - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong [21]. - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally [24]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - The copper price hit a new high and then declined. LME 3M copper rose 0.51% to $11,232/ton, and SHFE copper closed at 89,380 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory was flat, and domestic social and bonded - area inventories decreased. The spot premium in Shanghai and Guangdong declined, and the import loss widened. The refined - scrap spread increased [4]. Strategy Viewpoint - Geopolitical factors are still a headwind, but the market focuses on the Fed's meeting. With a tight raw material supply and expected smelting production cuts, the copper price is expected to be strong. The operating range of SHFE copper is 88,200 - 90,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M copper is $11,000 - 11,350/ton [5]. Aluminum Market Information - The aluminum price rebounded. LME aluminum rose 0.8% to $2,888/ton, and SHFE aluminum closed at 21,885 yuan/ton. The SHFE weighted contract's open interest increased, and the futures warehouse receipts slightly decreased. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market trading sentiment was weak [6]. Strategy Viewpoint - With declining inventories, supply disruptions, stable downstream operating rates, and the rising copper price, the aluminum price is expected to rise. The operating range of SHFE aluminum is 21,720 - 22,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M aluminum is $2,840 - 2,910/ton [7]. Lead Market Information - The SHFE lead index fell 0.10% to 17,069 yuan/ton, and LME lead fell to $1,982.5/ton. The domestic social inventory decreased slightly, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [8]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lead price is expected to be strong in the short - term as the Fed's rate - cut cycle brings positive sentiment, although the industry has some contradictions such as rising lead - ore inventory and changing smelting operating rates [9]. Zinc Market Information - The SHFE zinc index rose 0.75% to 22,603 yuan/ton, and LME zinc rose to $3,065.5/ton. The domestic zinc ingot social inventory decreased, and various price and inventory indicators were reported [10]. Strategy Viewpoint - The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as the weak industry situation does not match the strong macro - sentiment expectations, and the open interest has reached a new low in 2025 [11]. Tin Market Information - The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.09% to 306,580 yuan/ton. In October, domestic tin - concentrate imports increased, but the conflict in Congo (Kinshasa) disrupted tin - ore transportation. The demand in traditional sectors is weak, and the social inventory decreased [12]. Strategy Viewpoint - The tin price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the short - term as supply - side disruptions are the decisive factor. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of the domestic main contract is 290,000 - 320,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME tin is $38,000 - 41,000/ton [13]. Nickel Market Information - The nickel price rebounded slightly. The SHFE nickel main contract rose 0.66% to 117,850 yuan/ton. The spot premium of different brands changed, and the nickel - ore price was stable, while the nickel - iron price decline slowed down [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - The nickel price may shift to a volatile trend in the short - term as the decline of nickel - iron prices stabilizes and the macro - atmosphere warms. It is recommended to wait and see. The operating range of SHFE nickel is 113,000 - 118,000 yuan/ton, and that of LME 3M nickel is $13,500 - 15,500/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index rose 1.07%, and the LC2605 contract rose 0.54%. The battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate prices increased [17]. Strategy Viewpoint - The lithium carbonate price is likely to fluctuate significantly. It is recommended to wait and see or use options, and pay attention to the equity market atmosphere and fundamental dynamics. The reference operating range of the LC2605 contract is 93,600 - 99,800 yuan/ton [18]. Alumina Market Information - The alumina index fell 0.84% to 2,716 yuan/ton. The open interest increased, the basis and overseas prices were reported, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased [20]. Strategy Viewpoint - The alumina price is recommended to be observed in the short - term as overseas ore shipments are recovering, the smelting capacity is in surplus, but the price is approaching the cost line and the non - ferrous sector is strong. The reference operating range of the AO2601 contract is 2,600 - 2,900 yuan/ton [21]. Stainless Steel Market Information - The stainless - steel main contract rose 0.65% to 12,445 yuan/ton. The spot prices of different products changed, the raw - material prices were reported, the futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory increased [23]. Strategy Viewpoint - The stainless - steel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short - term as high supply brings inventory pressure, although demand has improved marginally due to downstream restocking and traders' hoarding [24]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - The casting aluminum alloy price rose 1.23% to 21,055 yuan/ton. The open interest and volume increased, the warehouse receipts increased, and the domestic mainstream ADC12 price increased, while the downstream demand was mainly for rigid needs [26]. Strategy Viewpoint - The casting aluminum alloy price is expected to follow the aluminum price trend in the short - term as the cost is firm and supply is affected by policies, while demand is average [27].

Group 1: Report Title and Date - Report Title: [HuaBao Futures] Non-ferrous Metals Weekly Report [1] - Report Date: December 1, 2025 [3] Group 2: Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report. Group 3: Core Views Aluminum - Logic: Last week, aluminum prices fluctuated strongly. The market believes that weak employment data will prompt the Fed to cut interest rates further, and the US government is releasing delayed economic data. In November, domestic electrolytic aluminum production increased year-on-year but decreased month-on-month. Downstream开工率 declined, and the aluminum water ratio decreased. In December, the operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is expected to increase slightly month-on-month. The PMI of the aluminum processing industry in November showed significant differentiation. As of December 1, the electrolytic aluminum ingot inventory in the mainstream consumption areas in China remained flat compared with last Thursday and decreased by 17,000 tons compared with last Monday [13]. - View: There is obvious support from the macro - aspect, and the overseas supply is expected to tighten fundamentally. However, with the arrival of the short - term off - season, the downstream demand weakens and the pressure of inventory accumulation increases. It is expected that the price will remain high and fluctuate in the short term. Subsequently, attention should be paid to the inventory - consumption trend and the high - level pressure [13]. Zinc - Logic: Last week, zinc prices remained high. The processing fees of zinc concentrates decreased compared with early November. The galvanizing开工率 decreased slightly last week. The zinc ingot inventory decreased slightly, and the export window of zinc ingots was still open recently [14]. - View: In the short term, the price maintains a pattern of strong overseas and weak domestic, but the medium - and long - term supply increase still exerts upward pressure. Attention should be paid to the transmission from the mine end to the smelting end, and be vigilant against macro - risk events and the LME inventory trend [14]. Tin - Logic: Last week, the price of Shanghai tin rose significantly. Due to the slow ore output in Myanmar and the tense situation in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the price of Shanghai tin exceeded 300,000. In October, the import volume of tin ore and concentrates decreased year - on - year. Yunnan and Jiangxi are still in a state of raw material shortage with low开工率. The downstream semiconductor consumption is acceptable, but the traditional automotive and home appliance sectors have cooled down [15]. - View: Due to the sudden situation at the mine end, the price of tin is strongly sorted [15]. Group 4: Weekly Market Review Futures and Spot Prices | Variety | Futures Contract | Closing Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Closing Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | Spot Price on Dec 1, 2025 | Spot Price on Nov 24, 2025 | Weekly Change | Weekly Increase/Decrease | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Copper | CU2601 | 89,280 | 86,080 | 3,200 | 3.72% | 89,150 | 86,215 | 2,935 | 3.40% | | Aluminum | AL2601 | 21,865 | 21,380 | 485 | 2.27% | 21,730 | 21,330 | 400 | 1.88% | | Zinc | ZN2601 | 22,590 | 22,390 | 200 | 0.89% | 22,206 | 22,212 | - 6 | - 0.03% | | Tin | SN2601 | 306,580 | 292,860 | 13,720 | 4.68% | 311,500 | 293,750 | 17,750 | 6.04% | | Nickel | NI2601 | 117,850 | 115,530 | 2,320 | 2.01% | 120,340 | 118,290 | 2,050 | 1.73% | [9] Group 5: Variety Data - Aluminum Bauxite - Price: The price of domestic high - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, up 5 year - on - year; the price of domestic low - grade bauxite in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week, up 20 year - on - year; the average price index of imported bauxite was 72.2 US dollars/ton on November 28, down 0.26 week - on - week and 20.24 year - on - year [20]. - Arrival and Departure Volume: The arrival volume at ports on November 28 was 5.1392 million tons, up 3.0815 million tons week - on - week and 1.4105 million tons year - on - year; the departure volume at ports was 4.5221 million tons, down 262,300 tons week - on - week and 134,000 tons year - on - year [23]. Alumina - Price and Cost - Profit: The domestic price in Henan remained unchanged week - on - week on November 28, down 2,855 year - on - year; the full cost was 2,899.3 yuan/ton, down 5.5 week - on - week and 342.6 year - on - year; the profit in Shanxi was - 100.23 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 2,881.99 year - on - year [26]. Electrolytic Aluminum - Total Cost: The total cost on November 28 was 16,078.1 yuan/ton, down 2.64 week - on - week and 5,109.33 year - on - year [30]. - Regional Price Difference: The price difference between Foshan and SMM A00 aluminum was - 90 yuan/ton on November 28, up 30 week - on - week and down 30 year - on - year [30]. - Operating Rate: The operating rate of aluminum cables on November 27 was 63, up 0.6 week - on - week and down 8.8 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum foil was 70.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 4.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum strips was 66.4, unchanged week - on - week and down 5.6 year - on - year; the operating rate of aluminum profiles was 52.5, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 1.7 year - on - year; the operating rate of primary aluminum alloy was 60.2, up 0.4 week - on - week and up 5.2 year - on - year; the operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy was 61.5, up 0.9 week - on - week and up 5.6 year - on - year [32][33]. - Inventory: The bonded - area inventory in Shanghai on November 27 was 39,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and down 1,400 year - on - year; the total bonded - area inventory was 60,500 tons, down 1,600 week - on - week and up 10,400 year - on - year; the social inventory on December 1 was 596,000 tons, down 17,000 week - on - week and up 43,000 year - on - year; the weekly outbound volume of aluminum ingots in the main consumption areas on November 24 was 139,400 tons, up 25,300 week - on - week and up 17,300 year - on - year; the SHFE inventory on November 28 was 115,277 tons, down 8,439 week - on - week and down 109,099 year - on - year; the LME inventory on November 27 was 539,050 tons, down 8,950 week - on - week and down 159,425 year - on - year [37][38]. - Spot and Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 150 yuan/ton, down 230 week - on - week and down 100 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 160 yuan/ton, down 200 week - on - week and down 130 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 210 yuan/ton, down 205 week - on - week and down 115 year - on - year [44]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 10 yuan/ton, up 30 week - on - week and down 50 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton, up 25 week - on - week and down 20 year - on - year [45]. Group 6: Variety Data - Zinc Zinc Concentrate - Price and Processing Fees: The price of domestic zinc concentrate on November 28 was 18,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,518 year - on - year; the domestic processing fee was 2,350 yuan/metal ton, down 250 week - on - week and up 850 year - on - year; the import processing fee was 61.25 US dollars/dry ton, down 11.8 week - on - week [54]. - Production Profit, Import Profit - Loss and Inventory: The enterprise production profit on November 28 was 5,490 yuan/metal ton, up 194 week - on - week and down 3,538 year - on - year; the import profit - loss was - 2,710.15 yuan/ton, down 859.58 week - on - week and down 2,543.97 year - on - year; the inventory of imported zinc concentrate in Lianyungang on November 28 was 150,000 physical tons, unchanged week - on - week and up 9 year - on - year [58]. Refined Zinc - Inventory: The social inventory of zinc ingots in SMM's seven regions on December 1 was 144,300 tons, down 6,700 week - on - week and up 44,400 year - on - year; the bonded - area inventory on November 27 was 3,600 tons, unchanged week - on - week and down 5,900 year - on - year; the SHFE refined zinc inventory on November 28 was 95,916 tons, down 4,431 week - on - week and up 42,933 year - on - year; the LME zinc inventory on November 27 was 51,750 tons, up 4,425 week - on - week and down 216,875 year - on - year [62]. Galvanizing - Production, Operating Rate and Inventory: The production on November 27 was 336,690 tons, up 5,300 week - on - week and down 61,375 year - on - year; the operating rate was 56.54, down 0.63 week - on - week and down 9.97 year - on - year; the raw - material inventory was 14,520 tons, down 330 week - on - week and up 2,480 year - on - year; the finished - product inventory was 366,200 tons, down 600 week - on - week and up 12,820 year - on - year [66]. Zinc Basis and Monthly Spread - Basis: The basis for the current month on November 28 was - 15 yuan/ton, down 60 week - on - week and down 990 year - on - year; the basis for the main contract was - 55 yuan/ton, down 100 week - on - week and down 1,450 year - on - year; the basis for the third - consecutive contract was - 105 yuan/ton, down 140 week - on - week and down 1,865 year - on - year [70]. - Monthly Spread: The spread between the current month and the main contract on November 28 was - 40 yuan/ton, down 40 week - on - week and down 460 year - on - year; the spread between the current month and the third - consecutive contract was - 90 yuan/ton, down 80 week - on - week and down 875 year - on - year [71]. Group 7: Variety Data - Tin Refined Tin - Production and Operating Rate: The combined production of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces on November 28 was 0.336 million tons, up 0.002 week - on - week and up 0.0175 year - on - year; the combined operating rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi provinces was 69.34%, up 0.41 week - on - week and up 3.61 year - on - year [80]. Tin Ingot - Inventory: The total SHFE tin - ingot inventory on November 28 was 6,359 tons, up 130 week - on - week and down 880 year - on - year; the social inventory of tin ingots in different regions of China on November 28 was 7,825 tons, up 171 week - on - week and down 352 year - on - year [84]. Tin Concentrate - Processing Fees: The processing fee for 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 12,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year; the processing fees for 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 8,000 yuan/ton, unchanged week - on - week and down 3,000 year - on - year [85]. - Import Profit - Loss: The import profit - loss level of tin ore on November 28 was 9,605.95 yuan/ton, down 4,095.68 week - on - week and down 2,350.24 year - on - year [88]. - Spot Price: The price of 40% tin concentrate in Yunnan on November 28 was 288,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year; the prices of 60% tin concentrate in Guangxi, Hunan and Jiangxi were 292,000 yuan/ton, up 8,700 week - on - week and up 63,400 year - on - year [94].

证券之星消息，截至2025年11月28日收盘，合金投资(000633)报收于8.57元，上涨10.01%，涨停，换手 率11.92%，成交量45.91万手，成交额3.78亿元。 11月28日的资金流向数据方面，主力资金净流入1.1亿元，占总成交额29.02%，游资资金净流出5030.22 万元，占总成交额13.3%，散户资金净流出5946.05万元，占总成交额15.72%。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 | 指标 | 台金投资 | 有色金属行业均值 | 行业排名 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 总市值 | 33亿元 | 310.34亿元 | 68 76 | | 净资产 | 2.09亿元 | 135.91亿元 | 75 76 | | 净利润 | 725.81万元 | 12.73亿元 | 66 76 | | 市盈率(动) | 341.04 | 32.06 | 66 76 | | 市净率 | 16.8 | 3.89 | 75 76 | | 毛利率 | 14.5% | 15.54% | 28 7 ...

Group 1 - The recent appreciation of the Renminbi (RMB) against the US dollar has reached new highs, with the offshore RMB surpassing 7.08 and the onshore RMB exceeding 7.09, marking the highest levels in over a year [1][3] - The RMB's middle exchange rate against the US dollar has increased by approximately 1000 basis points this year, while the CFETS RMB exchange rate index has risen to 98.22, indicating a strong performance against a basket of currencies [1][3][4] Group 2 - The appreciation of the RMB is attributed to multiple factors, including a decline in the US dollar index, which has dropped over 8% since the beginning of the year, and expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [4][6] - Domestically, the resilience of the Chinese economy, particularly strong export performance, has provided support for the RMB, with a surplus of 80.9 billion USD in foreign exchange settlements in the first ten months of the year [6] Group 3 - The appreciation of the RMB is expected to positively impact the stock market through three main channels: capital flow, corporate profitability, and policy space, with historical data showing a correlation between RMB appreciation and stock market performance [7][8] - Specific sectors such as aviation, paper manufacturing, and non-ferrous metals are likely to benefit significantly from the RMB's appreciation due to reduced import costs [10] Group 4 - Looking ahead, the RMB is expected to maintain a strong performance, supported by a stable monetary policy environment and ongoing structural adjustments in the economy [11] - The current environment presents a significant opportunity for the revaluation of RMB assets, particularly in sectors like new energy vehicles and semiconductors, which are enhancing their international competitiveness [13]

Core Viewpoint - The announcement from Kanglongda indicates a significant pledge of shares by its controlling shareholder, which may impact the company's financial stability and investor confidence [1] Group 1: Share Pledge Details - Kanglongda's controlling shareholder, Dongda Knitting, has pledged 8.5 million shares [1] - After the pledge, Dongda Knitting holds approximately 30.6 million shares, representing 18.99% of the total share capital [1] - The total number of pledged shares by Dongda Knitting is now about 24.08 million, accounting for 78.7% of its holdings and 14.95% of the total share capital [1] - Together with its concerted parties, Dongda Knitting holds around 67.4 million shares, which is 41.83% of the total share capital [1] - The cumulative pledged shares by Dongda Knitting and its concerted parties amount to approximately 48.38 million, representing 71.79% of their holdings and 30.03% of the total share capital [1] Group 2: Company Financials - For the year 2024, Kanglongda's revenue composition is as follows: 85.58% from the textile industry, 14.07% from the non-ferrous metal industry, and 0.35% from other businesses [1] - As of the announcement, Kanglongda's market capitalization is 5 billion yuan [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The report analyzes the weekly trends of various non - ferrous metals, including copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, nickel, tin, lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and polysilicon, presenting the latest logic changes, supply - demand situations, and price trends for each metal [1] Summary by Catalog Copper - **Market sentiment**: Both domestic and foreign prices are oscillating, with a rigid support at the LME average price. The market is trading the probability of the Fed's December interest rate cut, and the probability has rapidly increased [1] - **Domestic supply - demand**: The long - term negotiation of domestic copper concentrate processing fees is highly concerned. The spot import copper concentrate index is below $10. Domestic refined copper output in November is expected to decline month - on - month. In October, refined copper exports increased to 6.59 tons, and scrap copper imports reached 19.66 tons, with a cumulative supply increase of 1.99% in the first ten months. The output of major household appliances in October decreased month - on - month, and the market is watching the power - end orders. The domestic spot copper price passively follows the futures price, and there is a certain bullish sentiment in the spot market. The SMM social inventory decreased by 1.39 tons to 18.06 tons [1] - **Overseas situation**: Freeport is expected to restart the production of the Indonesian Grasberg copper - gold mine before July 2026, with the 2026 production expected to be the same as in 2025. The market is concerned about the restrictions on scrap copper exports. Affected by UK tariffs, European scrap copper has flowed to the Americas, and the COMEX copper inventory has reached a record high of nearly 37 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Last week, the "head - and - shoulders" pattern of Shanghai copper was supported at a key position, and trading became oscillating again. The stop - loss position of previous short positions was lowered to 86,500 yuan, using the 11 - 10 - day moving average as the strength - weakness boundary [1] Aluminum and Alumina - **Alumina**: The price in Guinea is dropping towards $70, with an expected increase in ore supply. The domestic operating alumina production capacity is 9.61 million tons. Some enterprise overhauls or technological upgrades have short - term impacts, and there is no long - term production reduction. The alumina market is in significant oversupply, and the spot index is approaching the cash - loss level. Low - cost enterprises still have profits, and the price is weakly moving towards the support level of 2,000 yuan in the first half of the year [1] - **Supply**: The domestic operating capacity of electrolytic aluminum is stable above 4 million tons. The first - phase 80 electrolytic cells of Tianshan Aluminum's second - phase project are gradually being put into production, and a 30,000 - ton electrolytic aluminum project of SPIC is planned to start production at the end of the year [1] - **Demand**: The SMM shows that the operating rate of aluminum processing enterprises remains at 62%. In October, aluminum product exports decreased by 20,000 tons month - on - month to 48,000 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 17.3%; aluminum product exports decreased by 24,000 tons month - on - month to 290,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 2% [1] - **Inventory and spot**: Last week, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 33,000 tons to 613,000 tons, and the social inventory of aluminum rods decreased by 16,000 tons to 130,000 tons. The inventory is at a neutral level in recent years. The spot discounts in East China, Central China, and South China have slightly narrowed, and the processing fee of South China aluminum rods has rebounded to 300 - 100 yuan [1] - **Price trend**: In the short term, the macro - sentiment is volatile, and the market risk preference is suppressed. The non - ferrous metals market has reduced positions and prices have declined. The fundamentals of the aluminum market have limited contradictions. After the price decline, downstream enterprises replenish stocks at low prices, with rigid demand but few highlights. The Shanghai aluminum price has fallen below the middle track of the Bollinger Bands, and the short - term upward trend has turned to oscillation, with a possible continued adjustment and support at around 21,100 yuan [1] Zinc - **Price trend**: The zinc price is weakly adjusting, and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets has narrowed [1] - **Spot and supply**: Under extreme domestic - foreign spreads, the export of zinc in November is expected to increase. The zinc inventory has increased to 47,325 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium is still at $140/ton. As the weather turns cold, domestic northern mines are gradually shutting down, and the supply of ore is further tightened. The TC of domestic and foreign mines is declining. The zinc price has fallen, and downstream enterprises are replenishing stocks at low prices. The SMM zinc social inventory has decreased to 151,000 tons. The split structure of domestic and foreign inventories is gradually being repaired, the import - ore smelting profit has improved, and domestic smelters' acceptance of imported ore has increased. Due to the high sulfuric acid price of 980 yuan/ton, the production - reduction expectation of domestic smelters in December is not strong, and the supply - reduction pressure of zinc ingots is not significantly weakened [1] - **Consumption**: The export of galvanized products is bright. Domestically, due to the weak real estate market, the slowdown of infrastructure investment growth, and the end of the photovoltaic and wind - power installation rush, the expected consumption increment is insufficient. As the northern weather turns cold, the demand enters the off - season, and downstream enterprises are cautious about future orders [1] - **Price trend**: Supported by smelting costs, with good external demand but weak domestic demand, be vigilant about the rapid change of capital sentiment. The Shanghai zinc price is expected to oscillate in the range of 22,000 - 23,000 yuan/ton [1] Lead - **Price trend**: The LME lead has a high inventory, the domestic supply is increasing while the demand is weak, and long - position holders are leaving the market. Both domestic and foreign prices have dropped sharply, with the LME lead falling 3.73% and the Shanghai lead falling 1.91% last week. The import window for lead has opened [1] - **Spot and supply**: The LME lead inventory is at a high level of 282,000 tons. The supply of domestic lead concentrate is tight, with the imported ore TC at - 100 to - 90 dollars/dry ton and the domestic PB50 lead concentrate at 200 - 100 yuan/metal ton. The SMM lead social inventory has decreased to 37,000 tons, and the finished - product inventory of recycled lead enterprises has decreased to 2,400 tons, the lowest since 2021. There are both overhauls and restarts in primary and recycled lead smelters. In the short term, the supply of recycled lead is slightly tight, and the price difference between refined and recycled lead has narrowed to 25 yuan/ton. The SMM 1 lead's discount to the near - month contract has narrowed to 65 yuan/ton. The import window opened intermittently in November, and the overseas replenishment is expected to reach the October level. Pay attention to the production dynamics of recycled smelters after profit pressure [1] - **Consumption**: From January to October, the cumulative export of lead - acid batteries was 186 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 9.31%. Affected by tariffs and the improvement of overseas battery supply capacity, there is no expected increment in battery exports at the end of the year. The domestic consumption is in the off - season, the terminal consumption of batteries has not improved significantly, and different battery production enterprises have different order performances. Enterprises produce according to sales. The finished - product inventory of battery enterprises is 15 - 17 days, and the raw - material inventory is 3 - 1 days. Domestic consumption lacks growth expectations but has rigid demand [1] - **Price trend**: There is a game between cost and consumption. The Shanghai lead price is expected to oscillate in the range of 17,000 - 17,500 yuan/ton [1] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Market situation**: The Shanghai nickel price is oscillating downward, with dull trading and increasing positions; the Shanghai stainless - steel price is also declining, with decreasing trading volume [1] - **Demand**: In the stainless - steel spot market, the nickel premium is 500 yuan, and the electrowon nickel premium is 250 yuan. The Jinchuan spot price is resistant to decline, and the high - nickel ferrochrome price is 89 yuan/nickel point. The support brought by the previous price rebound is weakening, and the overall price of the industrial chain is under pressure. A large stainless - steel manufacturer has announced the procurement prices of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome, weakening the cost support, and the spot price is difficult to change the weak situation [1] - **Spot and supply**: The Jinchuan premium is 4,350 yuan. The pure nickel inventory has decreased by 900 tons to 52,300 tons, the ferro - nickel inventory has increased by 700 tons to 30,000 tons, and the stainless - steel inventory has decreased by 12,000 tons to 940,000 tons [1] - **Conclusion**: The Shanghai nickel market will reduce inventory, but short - selling is the main strategy [1] Tin - **Market situation**: The domestic and foreign tin prices are oscillating at a high level. The Shanghai tin market has reduced positions, but the enthusiasm of long - term funds for trading is still high. Pay attention to the situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo again, and the Shanghai tin price has repeatedly tested 295,000 yuan [1] - **Supply**: In October, the physical volume of domestic tin concentrate imports was at a high - low level, with the main importing countries contributing to the increment. The situation in the eastern part of the Democratic Republic of the Congo is tense, and a landslide in a tin mine has caused heavy casualties among manual miners, but there is no news about Alpha Tin's production and sales [1] - **Consumption**: There are few domestic highlights. The household appliance output in October decreased month - on - month, and the consumer electronics market is average. The SMM social inventory has increased by 211 tons to 2,050 tons, the LME inventory is 3,085 tons, and the 0 - 3 - month spot premium has expanded to $114. The domestic and foreign inventories are lower than the same period in the previous two years, and the situation is relatively neutral [1] - **Price trend**: Continuously track the news from the Democratic Republic of the Congo. After the previous high - position short positions stop - loss at 295,000 yuan, short - selling is the main strategy, and out - of - the - money call options can be used to hedge risks [1] Lithium Carbonate - **Market situation**: Last week, the lithium carbonate futures had a strong start at the beginning of the week and a weak end at the weekend, with active trading and significant capital movement [1] - **Spot**: The Shanghai lithium carbonate spot price has continued to rise, reaching 92,000 yuan. The price difference between industrial - grade and battery - grade lithium carbonate is 2,400 yuan/ton. Lithium salt factories are operating at a high - capacity utilization rate, and overseas mines are raising prices and frequently releasing goods [1] - **Demand**: Downstream material factories are actively producing, with both supply and demand booming. The production plans of battery and cathode - material enterprises in November are continuously improving, and the inventory of lithium carbonate is expected to continue to decrease [1] - **Supply**: The total market inventory has decreased by 200 tons to 118,000 tons, the smelter inventory has decreased by 2,170 tons to 26,000 tons, the downstream inventory has decreased by 3,300 tons to 49,000 tons, and the trader inventory has increased by 3,150 tons to 48,000 tons. The sentiment in the intermediate link has recovered, and the spot market has certain support. The latest price of Australian mines is $1,130, and the mine - end price remains strong [1] - **Price trend**: The futures price is oscillating violently at a high level, with large market differences, and risk control should be the priority [1] Industrial Silicon - **Price**: Last week, the "anti - involution" measure of joint production reduction by the organic silicon industry boosted the market sentiment. The price broke through the previous high of 800 yuan/ton but failed to maintain, and then fell back to around 9,000 yuan/ton to oscillate [1] - **Supply - demand**: The weekly operating rate in Xinjiang is stable at 8% (unchanged month - on - month), and the operating rates in Yunnan and Sichuan are also unchanged month - on - month. Sichuan will enter the dry - water period at the end of November, and the operating rate may decline. The domestic polysilicon production in November is expected to be close to 120,000 tons, a decrease of 14,000 tons from October (affected by seasonal shutdowns), and the production in December is expected to decline slightly [1] - **Demand**: The domestic organic silicon printing price has increased to 13,000 - 13,200 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of about 850 yuan/ton. The actual - controller meeting of downstream factories has reached a consensus on production reduction, which will be implemented on December 1, and it is expected to reduce the demand for industrial silicon by about 400 tons per month [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM industrial silicon rod and powder inventory is 548,000 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons. Among them, the inventory in ordinary warehouses is 129,000 tons (an increase of 2,000 tons), and the inventory in bonded warehouses is 419,000 tons (unchanged) [1] - **Summary**: The expected production reduction in the organic silicon industry is expected to have a limited impact on the supply - demand pattern of industrial silicon. In the short term, the futures price will maintain an oscillating trend. Track the organic silicon price dynamics, and the downstream price - fixing repair may further drive market fluctuations [1] Polysilicon - **Price**: The polysilicon price has remained stable [1] - **Supply**: Affected by seasonal factors, the polysilicon industry's production plan in November has decreased by 14,000 tons compared to October, and there is an expected downward adjustment in December. After the overseas demand recedes, the domestic demand for silicon wafers has also declined, and the intensified industry competition has put pressure on the external procurement demand for silicon wafers [1] - **Inventory**: The SMM data shows that the polysilicon manufacturer inventory is 259,000 tons, a weekly decrease of 2,000 tons [1] - **Price trend**: Currently, the prices and production plans of downstream silicon wafers and battery wafers in the photovoltaic industry chain are continuously weakening. Although the polysilicon industry itself is showing a month - on - month production - reduction trend, the actual effect of the marginal improvement in supply - demand is limited. In the short term, the polysilicon futures price is affected by the "anti - involution" sentiment on the one hand and its own fundamentals on the other hand, and is expected to maintain an oscillating pattern [1]

铅：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 易后果，凡据此入市者，我公司不承担任何责任。未经公司授权，不得随意转载、复制、传播本网站中所有研究分析报告、行情分析视频等全 部或部分材料、内容。对可能因互联网软硬件设备故障或失灵、或因不可抗力造成的全部或部分信息中断、延迟、遗漏、误导或造成资料传输 或储存上的错误、或遭第三人侵入系统篡改或伪造变造资料等，我们均不承担任何责任。 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 17025 1973 8.66 三月 17170 1995 11.22 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.72 -123.44 有色套利早报 研究中心有色团队 2025/11/24 铜：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 85800 10677 8.07 三月 85680 10676 8.03 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.07 -632.80 现货出口 75.49 锌：跨市套利跟踪 2025/11/24 国内价格 LME价格 比价 现货 22420 3122 7.18 三月 22400 2987 5.75 均衡比价 盈利 现货进口 8.49 -4097.68 铝：跨市套利跟踪 2 ...