Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information was provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Copper**: The copper price showed a downward trend today, with the trading volume slightly decreasing. On the macro - level, the rebound of the US dollar index and the cooling of the domestic macro - atmosphere were negative factors for the copper price. On the industrial side, as the peak season approached in China, the social inventory of electrolytic copper decreased, which supported the copper price. Attention should be paid to the technical support at the 79,000 yuan mark [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum price fluctuated within a narrow range today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. On the macro - level, the domestic macro - atmosphere cooled, leading to a weak performance of the non - ferrous metal sector. On the industrial side, the continuous accumulation of electrolytic aluminum inventory was negative for the aluminum price. However, as the industrial peak season approached, industrial support might continue to strengthen. It was expected that the aluminum price would fluctuate [6]. - **Nickel**: The nickel price fluctuated within a narrow range above 120,000 yuan today, with the trading volume slightly increasing. The cooling of the domestic atmosphere had little impact on nickel. On the industrial side, the trading of nickel ore was fair, and the ore price remained stable. The continuous increase in domestic nickel ore port inventory and refined nickel inventory suppressed the nickel price. Technically, attention should be paid to the technical support at the 120,000 yuan mark [7]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 26, some copper cable enterprises reported that after the copper price soared above 79,500 yuan/ton yesterday and remained at a high level, the order - receiving capacity of terminal downstream significantly weakened, the industry's consumption side showed a weak trend, and the overall order - receiving rhythm slowed down. On August 25, the spot inventory of electrolytic copper in the domestic market was 120,000 tons, a decrease of 24,200 tons compared with the 18th and a decrease of 9,700 tons compared with the 21st [9]. - **Aluminum**: According to SMM statistics, on August 26, the daily social inventory of recycled aluminum alloy ingots in Foshan, Ningbo, and Wuxi totaled 32,373 tons, an increase of 405 tons compared with the previous trading day and an increase of 914 tons compared with last Tuesday (August 19). On August 25, the domestic spot inventory of electrolytic aluminum was 603,000 tons, an increase of 23,000 tons compared with the 18th and an increase of 24,000 tons compared with the 21st [10]. - **Nickel**: Today, the price of SMM1 electrolytic nickel was in the range of 120,000 - 122,900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 121,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 200 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The mainstream spot premium quotation range of Jinchuan No. 1 nickel was 2,500 - 2,700 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 2,600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day. The spot premium and discount quotation range of domestic mainstream brand electrowon nickel was - 100 - 300 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Relevant Charts - **Copper**: The report provided charts including copper basis, copper monthly spread, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), overseas copper exchange inventory, LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and SHFE warrant inventory [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report provided charts such as aluminum basis, aluminum monthly spread, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, overseas exchange inventory of electrolytic aluminum (LME + COMEX), alumina inventory, and aluminum rod inventory [25][27][29]. - **Nickel**: The report provided charts including nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, LME nickel trend, nickel ore port inventory, and LME nickel cancelled warrant ratio [37][41][45].

Group 1 - Company announced the convening of the ninth board meeting on August 21, 2025, in Kunming, Yunnan, to review the semi-annual report for 2025 [1] - For the year 2024, the company's revenue composition shows that the non-ferrous metal industry accounts for 99.58%, while other businesses account for 0.42% [1] - As of the report date, the company's market capitalization is 32.1 billion yuan [1] Group 2 - The company operates primarily in the non-ferrous metal sector, indicating a strong focus on this industry [1]

Group 1: Copper - The current macroeconomic environment is cautious, with a potential increase in copper imports to supplement domestic supply after the end of the siphoning effect in the U.S. [1] - Short-term supply of copper is expected to remain loose, with downstream purchasing primarily driven by essential demand [1] - Copper prices are projected to decline, with a reference range of 77,800-78,800 CNY/ton for spot prices and 9,600-9,800 USD/ton for LME copper [1] Group 2: Aluminum - Domestic spot aluminum prices have slightly decreased, averaging 20,602 CNY, with a decline of 0.35% [1] - The macroeconomic outlook is influenced by U.S.-Russia talks, Federal Reserve dynamics, and adjustments in U.S. tariffs, leading to a generally mild market sentiment [1] - The basic supply-demand structure is showing slight improvement, with a slowdown in inventory accumulation, and aluminum prices are expected to rise slightly next week, averaging around 20,700 CNY [1] Group 3: Lead - Lead prices are experiencing a weak fluctuation, with current spot prices expected to focus on a range of 16,600-16,800 CNY/ton [1] - The consumption peak in August has not materialized, leading to weak domestic demand and low-price procurement by downstream buyers [1] - The increase in overseas lead ingot inventories is putting additional pressure on lead prices [1] Group 4: Zinc - The macroeconomic news is limited, and demand remains weak, leading to increased market risk aversion [2] - Domestic inventories are continuing to accumulate, which is negatively impacting prices, while terminal order recovery is not yet evident [2] - Zinc prices are expected to continue fluctuating, with a focus on a range of 22,000-22,800 CNY [2] Group 5: Tin - Electrolytic tin prices have been fluctuating downwards, influenced by tariff uncertainties and fluctuating expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts [2] - Domestic imports of tin concentrate decreased in July, with supply tightening providing some support for tin prices [2] - Overall trading activity in the tin market is subdued, with prices expected to maintain a range of 26,000-27,500 CNY [2] Group 6: Nickel - The average spot nickel price this week was 121,635 CNY/ton, down by 1,815 CNY, reflecting a decline of 1.47% [2] - Nickel prices are trending weakly, with no improvement in transaction opportunities and a prevailing bearish sentiment in the market [2] - Supply-demand imbalances persist, with expectations of limited price fluctuations next week, focusing on a range of 118,000-123,000 CNY [2]

Global Economic Trends - Global economic growth is expected to be 2.8% in 2025, which is 0.4 percentage points lower than the average growth rate from 2010 to 2019[14] - The World Bank predicts a global economic growth of only 2.3% in 2025, down from earlier forecasts[15] - International trade growth is anticipated to decline, with a projected decrease of 0.2% in global merchandise trade volume in 2025[16] China's Economic Outlook - China's GDP is projected to grow by approximately 4.7% in the second half of 2025, with a nominal GDP growth of 4.3% in the first half[27][28] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) may turn negative in the second half of 2025, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) is expected to decline by around 3.0% for the year[30] - The unemployment rate for urban areas averaged 5.2% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year[27] A-Share Market Performance - A-share companies' overall market value creation ability decreased by nearly 40 basis points in 2024 compared to 2023[40] - The performance of A-share companies is increasingly diverging from nominal GDP growth, particularly in the manufacturing sector[40] - The return on assets (ROA) and return on equity (ROE) for A-share companies continued to decline in 2024[40] Sector-Specific Insights - The first industry saw a significant recovery in asset returns due to rising pork prices, while the second and third industries experienced declines[10] - R&D investment in some sectors continued to rise in 2024, although some industries began to see a decrease[10] - The manufacturing sector is facing severe "involution" competition, impacting profitability and pricing power[30]

Group 1 - The stock price of Huafeng Aluminum is reported at 17.73 yuan, down 1.39% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of 17.62 yuan to 18.09 yuan and a transaction amount of 203 million yuan [1] - Huafeng Aluminum primarily engages in the research, production, and sales of aluminum plates, strips, and foils, with applications in automotive, home appliances, and construction sectors [1] - The company is classified within the non-ferrous metals industry and is a locally listed company in Shanghai [1] Group 2 - In the second quarter of 2025, social security funds increased their holdings in Huafeng Aluminum by a total of 9.607 million shares, with four social security fund products currently holding the company's stock [1] - On the day of the report, the main capital outflow for Huafeng Aluminum was 14.7207 million yuan, with a cumulative net outflow of 7.1321 million yuan over the past five trading days [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report presents the cross - market, cross - period, and cross - variety arbitrage tracking data of various non - ferrous metals (copper, zinc, aluminum, nickel, lead, tin) on August 20, 2025, including domestic prices, LME prices, price ratios, equilibrium price ratios, and profit margins [1][3][4][8]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Cross - Market Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: On August 20, 2025, the domestic spot price was 79,100, the LME spot price was 9,653, the spot price ratio was 8.20, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.17, and the profit was 209.23; the domestic March price was 78,860, the LME March price was 9,750, and the price ratio was 8.09 [1]. - **Zinc**: The domestic spot price was 22,190, the LME spot price was 2,767, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.67, and the profit was - 1,787.67; the domestic March price was 22,205, the LME March price was 2,777, and the price ratio was 6.05 [1]. - **Aluminum**: The domestic spot price was 20,590, the LME spot price was 2,576, the spot price ratio was 7.99, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.47, and the profit was - 1,228.29; the domestic March price was 20,520, the LME March price was 2,580, and the price ratio was 7.98 [1]. - **Nickel**: The domestic spot price was 119,450, the LME spot price was 14,890, the spot price ratio was 8.02, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.25, and the profit was - 2,120.30 [1]. - **Lead**: The domestic spot price was 16,650, the LME spot price was 1,943, the spot price ratio was 8.58, the equilibrium ratio for spot import was 8.86, and the profit was - 543.18; the domestic March price was 16,850, the LME March price was 1,985, and the price ratio was 11.21 [3]. Cross - Period Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the next - month, March, April, and May contracts relative to the spot - month contract were - 80, - 90, - 100, and - 100 respectively, while the theoretical spreads were 497, 892, 1295, and 1699 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were - 135, - 135, - 140, and - 135 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 215, 335, 456, and 577 respectively [4]. - **Aluminum**: The spreads were - 55, - 80, - 105, and - 130 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 214, 329, 444, and 559 respectively [4]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 60, 75, 105, and 140 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 209, 314, 419, and 524 respectively [4]. - **Nickel**: The spreads were 110, 380, 660, and 940 respectively [4]. - **Tin**: The spread of the 5 - 1 contract was 880, and the theoretical spread was 5556 [4]. Spot - Futures Arbitrage Tracking - **Copper**: The spreads of the current - month and next - month contracts relative to the spot were - 125 and - 205 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 424 and 851 respectively [4]. - **Zinc**: The spreads were 150 and 15 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 179 and 294 respectively [4][5]. - **Lead**: The spreads were 125 and 185 respectively, and the theoretical spreads were 187 and 299 respectively [5]. Cross - Variety Arbitrage Tracking - On August 20, 2025, the cross - variety price ratios of copper/zinc, copper/aluminum, copper/lead, aluminum/zinc, aluminum/lead, and lead/zinc in the Shanghai (three - continuous) market were 3.55, 3.84, 4.68, 0.92, 1.22, and 0.76 respectively, and in the London (three - continuous) market were 3.50, 3.78, 4.91, 0.93, 1.30, and 0.71 respectively [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆ (One star, indicating a bullish/bearish bias with limited trading operability) [1] - Aluminum: ★★★ (Three stars, indicating a clearer bullish/bearish trend with relatively appropriate investment opportunities) [1] - Alumina: ★★★ [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: ★★★ [1] - Zinc: ★★★ [1] - Lead: ★★★ [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: ★☆☆ [1] - Tin: ★☆☆ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆ [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆ (White star, indicating a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading operability, suggesting waiting and seeing) [1] - Polysilicon: ★★★ [1] Core Views - The overall market for non - ferrous metals shows different trends and investment opportunities. Each metal has its own supply - demand fundamentals, inventory status, and price trends, which affect investment decisions [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuates around the MA40 daily moving average, with high - level oscillations affecting downstream procurement. The current demand is mainly supported by power grid orders, and consumption is in the off - season. Domestic refined copper production increased in July and August. The supply - demand resilience is due to the low operating rate of recycled copper affected by policies. SMM social inventory increased by 8,100 tons to 133,700 tons. The upper trading resistance in the copper market is significant, and the expected trading range of Shanghai copper is 78,000 - 79,500 yuan/ton [1] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum declined slightly, with a spot discount of 20 yuan in East China. Aluminum ingot social inventory increased by 19,000 tons, while aluminum rod inventory decreased by 6,000 tons. Downstream开工 is stable, and the peak of off - season inventory accumulation may be approaching. Inventory is likely to remain low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly oscillate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy follows the fluctuation of Shanghai aluminum, and the Baotai spot price is maintained at 19,900 yuan. Alumina has excess supply, with rising industry inventory and warehouse receipts on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and it oscillates weakly [2] Zinc - The domestic zinc fundamentals show increasing supply and weak demand. SMM zinc social inventory continues to rise to 135,400 tons. Shanghai zinc has fallen for 4 consecutive trading days, and the 60 - day moving average is being tested. Due to repeated macro - sentiment, the direction of Shanghai zinc is unclear, and investors tend to take profits. The external inventory is at a low level, and a phased return of long positions needs to be vigilant. With the incremental supply from mines being realized as expected, the mid - term strategy is to short on rebounds, waiting for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - Lead consumption shows a lackluster peak season, dragging down the price to oscillate weakly. The raw material supply is tightly constrained, and the cost strongly supports the price. Recycled lead is sold at a low price reluctantly, and in some areas, the refined - scrap price is inverted. SMM lead social inventory has slightly decreased. In late August, attention should be paid to traffic control in major lead - producing areas and routine maintenance of primary lead. After the Beginning of Autumn, the weather improves, and with the approaching of the school season, demand is expected to pick up. It is advisable to hold long positions with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton, and also pay attention to the opportunities of end - of - term call options [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel slightly corrected on Monday, with average trading. Stainless steel social inventory has decreased for 6 consecutive weeks. However, downstream terminals are still reluctant to accept high - priced stainless steel. With the increase in stainless steel production in August, supply is expected to increase, and there is still some uncertainty in the market. In the spot market, Jinchuan nickel has a premium of 2,200 yuan, imported nickel has a premium of 350 yuan, and electrowon nickel has a premium of 125 yuan. High - nickel ferro - nickel is priced at 927 yuan per nickel point, and the upstream price support has slightly rebounded. Nickel ferro - nickel inventory is basically stable at 33,000 tons. Pure nickel inventory increased by 1,000 tons to 42,000 tons, and stainless steel inventory decreased by 20,000 tons to 934,000 tons, but the overall level is still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - to - late stage of the rebound, and it is advisable to actively short [6] Tin - Shanghai tin oscillates around the MA40 daily moving average. Attention should be paid to the impact of the production capacity of leading enterprises on the domestic supply side. It is expected that there is some room for inventory reduction in domestic tin social inventory. Overseas inventory is mainly at a low level. Attention should be paid to the changes in LME weak inventory and the 0 - 3 month spread after the third Wednesday. Although tin prices oscillate as a whole, there is a risk of an upward shift in the trading center. Middle and downstream enterprises should place orders at low prices. The overall oscillation range is expected to be between 263,000 - 280,000 yuan, with the high - level area above 275,000 yuan. Short - term long positions entered on corrections should be held based on the MA60 daily moving average [7] Lithium Carbonate - The lithium carbonate futures price opened higher and oscillated, with active trading. The battery - grade lithium carbonate is priced at 84,600 yuan, with a price difference of 2,300 yuan between battery - grade and industrial - grade. The spot market has seen consecutive sharp increases, with a weekly increase of 10,000 yuan being rare in recent years. As the price increase trend is established, downstream material enterprises' inquiry enthusiasm has significantly increased due to rigid demand procurement and potential reduction in customer - supplied materials. The total market inventory is basically stable at 142,000 tons, with smelter inventory decreasing by 1,000 tons to 50,000 tons, downstream inventory remaining unchanged at 48,000 tons, and trader inventory increasing by 1,000 tons to 44,000 tons. The sharp price fluctuation has significantly impacted and deterred downstream purchasing. The latest Australian ore price is 995 US dollars, and the ore price is generally firm. The lithium carbonate futures price is strong, and the market focus is on the expectation after the shutdown of sub - standard plants for the 930 contract. In the short term, it is difficult to disprove this, and the fundamentals have limited guidance on the price. The short - term strategy is to go long with good risk control [8] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures slightly declined, giving back the intraday gains. The price was supported by the sentiment in the polysilicon market in the short term, and the supporting effect of policy expectations continued to show. However, recent photovoltaic industry conferences have not released new detailed information, and the improvement in the industrial silicon fundamentals is limited under the pattern of both supply and demand increasing. Therefore, the upside space is expected to be limited, and the main contract is expected to oscillate between 8,500 - 9,000 yuan/ton [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon recovered part of the intraday gains. At the policy level, although the news of photovoltaic - related conferences has been released, the policy details have not been substantially advanced, and the price increase driven by market sentiment is limited. At the spot level, terminal and downstream demand are stable, while polysilicon production has increased significantly. The high - inventory pattern will suppress the upside elasticity of the price. With the futures price at a premium, the increase in warehouse receipts is significant, and there is hedging pressure. The operation strategy is to go long around 50,000 yuan/ton, and there is still resistance above 53,000 yuan/ton [10]

Group 1 - The latest stock price of Xinbo Co., Ltd. is 19.16 yuan, an increase of 0.48 yuan compared to the previous trading day [1] - The trading volume for the day was 57,194 hands, with a transaction amount of 1.09 billion yuan [1] - Xinbo Co., Ltd. operates in the non-ferrous metal industry, focusing on the research, production, and sales of aluminum profiles [1] Group 2 - The company's products are primarily used in construction, automotive, and electronic appliance sectors [1] - On the evening of August 15, Xinbo Co., Ltd. announced that neither the company nor its subsidiaries have overdue external guarantees or are involved in any litigation related to guarantees [1] - The company has not incurred any losses due to judgments against it related to guarantees [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views - **沪铜**: Today, Shanghai copper fluctuated downward with a decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring copper prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's inventory on Thursday was basically the same as on Monday. Technically, pay attention to the long - short game at the 79,000 mark [5]. - **沪铝**: Today, Shanghai aluminum fluctuated with a continuous decline in open interest. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring aluminum prices down. On the industrial level, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory on Thursday was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 54,000 tons from Monday. With macro - level negatives and industrial - level positives, aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate [6]. - **沪镍**: Today, nickel prices decreased with a reduction in positions. On the macro - level, the domestic sentiment turned cold, and previously strong varieties generally fell, pressuring nickel prices down. On the industrial level, the nickel fundamentals remained weak. With the weakening of the market and weak industrial support, pay attention to the technical support at the 120,000 mark [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Industry Dynamics - **Copper**: On August 14, Mysteel's domestic market electrolytic copper spot inventory was 132,400 tons, a decrease of 900 tons from the 7th and an increase of 200 tons from the 11th [9]. - **Aluminum**: On August 14, Mysteel's electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 517,000 tons, a decrease of 32,000 tons from the 7th and a decrease of 54,000 tons from the 11th [10]. - **Nickel**: On August 14, the mainstream reference contract for refined nickel in the Shanghai market was the SHFE nickel 2509 contract. The mainstream premium of Jinchuan electrolytic nickel was +2,150 yuan/ton, with a price of 124,670 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Russian nickel was +500 yuan/ton, with a price of 123,020 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of Norwegian nickel was +3,200 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,720 yuan/ton; the mainstream premium of nickel beans was +2,550 yuan/ton, with a price of 125,070 yuan/ton [11]. 2. Related Charts - **Copper**: The report includes charts such as copper basis, domestic visible inventory of electrolytic copper (social inventory + bonded area inventory), LME copper cancelled warrant ratio, and others [12][14][15]. - **Aluminum**: The report includes charts such as aluminum basis, domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum, alumina trend, and others [24][26][28]. - **Nickel**: The report includes charts such as nickel basis, nickel monthly spread, SHFE inventory, and others [36][42][44].

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: ★☆☆, indicating a slightly bullish bias but limited operability on the trading floor [1] - Aluminum: ☆☆☆, suggesting a relatively balanced short - term trend with poor trading floor operability [1] - Alumina: ☆☆☆, similar to aluminum, a balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Casting Aluminum Alloy: ☆☆☆, also a balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Zinc: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Lead and Stainless Steel: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and low operability [1] - Tin: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Lithium Carbonate: ★☆☆, slightly bearish bias with limited trading floor operability [1] - Industrial Silicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] - Polysilicon: ☆☆☆, balanced short - term trend and poor operability [1] Report's Core View - Different metals in the non - ferrous metals market have various price trends and investment suggestions based on their supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment [1][2][3] Summary by Metal Copper - On Wednesday, Shanghai copper closed with a positive trend, with the spot copper price rising to 79,475 yuan. There was a premium in Shanghai and Guangdong. The refined - scrap price difference was restored to 1,100 yuan. Due to the lower - than - expected US CPI in July, the dollar weakened. It is difficult for copper prices to effectively break through 79,500 yuan, and short positions are recommended on rallies [1] Aluminum & Alumina & Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum fluctuated narrowly, with the spot discount in East China narrowing to 20 yuan. Aluminum ingot social inventory continued to accumulate, and downstream开工 was in the off - season. The peak of aluminum ingot inventory may occur in August, and the inventory is likely to be low this year. Shanghai aluminum will mainly fluctuate in the short term, with resistance at 21,000 yuan. Casting aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum, with the Baotai spot price rising to 19,900 yuan. Alumina's operating capacity was at a historical high, the total industry inventory increased, and the market was in an oversupply state. There was adjustment pressure after yesterday's news hype [2] Zinc - The average price of SMM 0 zinc was 22,560 yuan/ton, with a discount to the near - month contract. Downstream demand was weak, and the term structure of Shanghai zinc was flattening. The domestic refined zinc inventory may continue to rise, and Shanghai zinc is expected to face pressure on rebounds. LME zinc inventory decreased, and the external market was relatively strong, making it difficult to open the import window. Wait patiently for short - selling opportunities above 23,500 yuan/ton [3] Lead - The refined and scrap lead prices were the same, and the cost support was strong. Consumption had no obvious improvement, and the upward momentum of lead prices was insufficient. Shanghai lead is expected to fluctuate widely, and long positions are recommended to be held with a stop - loss at 16,600 yuan/ton [5] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel rebounded, and the market was active. The domestic anti - dumping theme was coming to an end, and nickel with a relatively poor fundamental situation will return to its fundamentals. The inventory of nickel iron was basically stable, and the inventory of pure nickel and stainless steel decreased, but the overall inventory level was still high. Shanghai nickel is in the middle - late stage of the rebound, and short positions are recommended [6] Tin - Shanghai tin closed slightly lower at around 270,000 yuan, with a premium to the delivery month. The short - term upward trend was relatively stable. The low inventory in the external market provided support, and the domestic high social inventory had the motivation to reduce. Short - term long positions are recommended at low prices [7] Lithium Carbonate - The futures price of lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the market was active. The trading lacked a clear direction, and the long - liquidation was obvious. The spot price was 81,000 yuan. The downstream inquiry was active, and the spot market transaction improved. The total market inventory decreased slightly, and there was obvious transfer of goods ownership. Risk management should be noted due to abnormal price fluctuations [8] Industrial Silicon - Industrial silicon decreased with increasing positions, closing at 8,600 yuan/ton. The self - discipline of production capacity was difficult, and the sentiment was affected by related varieties. The inventory in the delivery warehouse increased significantly, and there was still hedging pressure at high levels. However, the expected increase in polysilicon production provided some demand support. The price is expected to fluctuate between 8,300 - 9,000 yuan/ton in the short term [9] Polysilicon - Polysilicon decreased with decreasing positions, closing at 51,290 yuan/ton. The N - type re - feed price was stable. The production in August was significantly increased, and the inventory increase restricted the spot price increase. The PS2511 contract is expected to operate between 48,000 - 53,000 yuan/ton, and short - selling at the lower end of the range is recommended with caution [10]