Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the chemical industry, particularly highlighting undervalued and high-growth opportunities [1]. Core Insights - The anti-dumping duties on chlorpyrifos are expected to benefit domestic companies, with a recommendation to focus on Yangnong Chemical [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of orderly exports of nitrogen fertilizers, suggesting that leading domestic companies should adopt a proactive pricing strategy to avoid excessive competition [3]. - The chemical sector is experiencing a gradual recovery in PPI, with a focus on investment opportunities in cyclical products due to low inventory levels [3][4]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - Current macroeconomic conditions indicate a mixed outlook for oil, coal, and natural gas prices, with oil prices supported by shale oil production costs [3][4]. - The report notes a significant price increase in PTA and MEG, driven by supply constraints and optimistic market sentiment [9][10]. Fertilizer and Pesticide Market - Domestic urea prices have risen by 2.8% to 1830 CNY/ton, influenced by export policy expectations [11]. - The report highlights the stable pricing of various pesticides, with specific price points for glyphosate and other herbicides remaining unchanged [11]. Chemical Products Pricing - The report provides detailed pricing trends for various chemical products, including a 1.6% decrease in PVC prices and stable pricing for other chemicals like DMC and silicone [12][13]. - The report indicates a cautious market sentiment in the dye industry, with prices remaining stable despite cost support from raw materials [15]. Key Company Valuations - The report includes a valuation table for key companies, with recommendations for stocks such as Yangnong Chemical (buy) and Hualu Chemical (increase) based on their projected earnings and market performance [17][18].

Market Overview - The global lubricating oil additives market reached a size of $16 billion in 2023, with approximately 70% of these additives used in the automotive sector [1][2] - The market sales for lubricating oil additives in 2023 amounted to $15.99 billion, and it is projected to grow to $18.21 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% from 2024 to 2030 [1][2] - In China, the apparent demand for lubricating oil additives was 950,100 tons in 2021, with a CAGR of 2.99% from 2013 to 2021 [1][2] Demand Side Analysis - In the transportation lubricants segment, despite the increasing penetration of electric vehicles leading to a decline in traditional fuel vehicle growth, the sales of plug-in hybrid vehicles are expected to continue rising [2] - The overall automotive sales in China are anticipated to maintain stable growth due to continued government efforts to stimulate consumption, which will support the demand for transportation lubricants and their additives in the short to medium term [2] - In the industrial lubricants segment, the demand is expected to steadily increase due to equipment renewal policies and the rapid expansion of new special bond scales, which will support the growth of engineering machinery ownership [2] Supply Side Analysis - The lubricating oil additives industry has high barriers to entry in terms of technology, capital, and customer access, leading to a highly concentrated supply globally, dominated by four major international companies that hold about 85% of the market share [3] - China’s imports of lubricating oil additives have fluctuated around 300,000 tons from 2020 to 2024, with an expected import volume of 243,200 tons in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 7.74% [3] - In the context of trade tensions, there is a growing emphasis on supply chain security, prompting lubricant customers to shift their focus towards domestic enterprises, which may enhance the market share of local companies and improve the self-sufficiency of China's lubricating oil additives industry [3][4] Investment Recommendations - The demand for lubricating oil additives in both transportation and industrial sectors is expected to grow in line with the sales and ownership of end-use vehicles and engineering machinery, with growth rates anticipated to remain relatively stable as these markets have entered a mature phase [4] - Currently, China still needs to import 200,000 to 300,000 tons of lubricating oil additives annually, with some imports coming from the U.S., highlighting the importance of supply chain security and the potential acceleration of domestic substitution processes [4] - Companies such as Ruifeng New Materials (300910) and Lianlong (300596) are recommended for attention in this sector [4]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a focus on domestic companies such as Ruifeng New Material (300910) and Lianlong (300596) as potential investment opportunities in the lubricant additive sector [6]. Core Viewpoints - The global lubricant additive market reached a size of approximately $15.99 billion in 2023, with expectations to grow to $18.21 billion by 2030, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.9% from 2024 to 2030 [6][23]. - In China, the apparent demand for lubricant additives was 950,100 tons in 2021, with a CAGR of 2.99% from 2013 to 2021 [6][23]. - The demand for lubricant additives is expected to remain stable in the short to medium term, driven by the growth in automotive and industrial machinery sales [6][61]. Summary by Sections 1. Introduction to Lubricant Additives - Lubricant additives constitute 2% to 30% of the total lubricant volume, enhancing performance and extending the lifespan of lubricants [13][15]. - The main application areas include automotive engine oils, industrial lubricants, and marine engine oils [13][15]. 2. Demand Side: Stable Growth Expected - The demand for lubricant additives is projected to remain stable, with significant contributions from automotive and industrial sectors [6][23]. - Approximately 70% of global lubricant additives are used in the automotive sector, with a notable increase in the penetration of plug-in hybrid vehicles [28][38]. - In China, the total lubricant demand is expected to be 6.39 million tons in 2024, with transportation lubricants accounting for 3.41 million tons [34][44]. 3. Supply Side: High Market Concentration and Domestic Replacement Potential - The lubricant additive market is highly concentrated, with four major international companies (Lubrizol, Infineum, Chevron Oronite, and Afton) controlling about 85% of the market [6][65]. - Domestic companies are expected to gain market share due to increasing focus on supply chain security amid trade tensions [6][72]. - China's lubricant additive production capacity is approximately 1 million tons, with domestic companies gradually increasing their market presence [72][73].

Core Insights - The company, Lianlong, reported a strong performance for the fiscal year 2024, achieving a revenue of 5.687 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.74%, and a net profit of 426 million yuan, up 17.61% [2][3] - Lianlong has maintained a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of over 24% in revenue for 14 consecutive years, driven by the synergy of its three main business lines [1][2] - The company is focusing on high-end electronic-grade polyimide (PI) materials as a new growth point, particularly in the context of "bottleneck" technologies in China [1][9] Revenue and Profit Growth - In 2024, Lianlong's operating cash flow increased significantly by 168.56%, reaching 464 million yuan, indicating improved operational quality [2] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 3.70 yuan per 10 shares, totaling approximately 84.96 million yuan, which represents 19.93% of the net profit attributable to shareholders [3] Business Segments Performance - The polymer anti-aging additives segment generated revenue of 4.594 billion yuan, a growth of 5.73%, with a shipment volume of 123,600 tons, up 6.40% [4] - The lubricating oil additives segment, acquired through the strategic purchase of Jinzhou Kangtai, reported revenue of 1.064 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 15.40% [5][6] - The life sciences segment has transitioned to a dual-track operation model, focusing on both research and market deployment, with significant advancements in nucleic acid raw materials and molecular diagnostics [7][8] Strategic Initiatives - Lianlong has successfully completed the acquisition of the Korean company IPITECHINC., enhancing its capabilities in the PI materials sector, which is crucial for applications in flexible OLED displays and electric vehicles [9] - The company is committed to its 2.0 strategic goals, aiming for substantial revenue targets across its business lines by 2028, including 10 billion yuan for the new materials division and 4 billion yuan for the lubricating oil division [10][11]

Group 1 - The company reported a total revenue of 849 million yuan for Q1 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.91% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 0.92% [1] - The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 195 million yuan, up 27.59% year-on-year but down 12.35% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The growth in revenue and profit is primarily driven by an increase in lubricant additive sales, with a total export volume of 63,300 tons in Q1 2025, a year-on-year increase of 19.6% [1] Group 2 - The global lubricant additive market is highly concentrated, with four major companies holding approximately 85% of the market share [2] - The company is positioned to accelerate domestic substitution as safety supply concerns rise, especially with increased import costs due to tariffs on U.S. products [2] - The company is expanding its overseas marketing channels and has established warehouses in Singapore, Dubai, and Belgium to meet regional customer demands [2] Group 3 - The company has made significant progress in composite agent certification, which is crucial for entering the supply chains of major downstream clients [3] - The company has independently mastered multiple levels of diesel and gasoline engine oil composite formulations, achieving OEM certification for several products [3] - Future product expansion and capacity growth are expected to lead to simultaneous increases in volume and price for lubricant additives [3] Group 4 - The company is recognized as a leading domestic lubricant additive enterprise, with products already integrated into the supply chains of major companies like Shell, Mobil, and Sinopec [3] - Projections indicate that the company will achieve net profits of 850 million, 1.04 billion, and 1.27 billion yuan for the years 2025 to 2027, with corresponding P/E ratios of 22X, 18X, and 15X [3]

Summary of the Conference Call on the Lubricant Additives Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the lubricant additives industry in China, particularly in the context of the US-China trade tensions and the impact of tariffs and the pandemic on the market dynamics [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments Market Dynamics - Domestic lubricant blending plants are accelerating the localization of raw materials to reduce costs due to tariff and pandemic pressures [1]. - Tariff increases have significantly raised the costs of high-end lubricants that use imported additives, prompting blending plants to consider domestic alternatives [1][2]. - The Chinese lubricant additives market is substantial, with foreign brands holding a significant market share, but there is a clear trend towards domestic substitution [1][2][22]. Market Segmentation - The domestic lubricant blending plants are categorized into four main types: foreign-funded, state-owned, private, and emerging enterprises. Foreign brands account for approximately 17%-18% of the market, while state-owned brands hold about 30% [1][8]. - Major players like Sinopec and PetroChina have substantial annual demands for lubricant additives but remain highly dependent on four major suppliers [1][21]. Price Changes and Cost Pressures - The price of key additives like detergents has surged due to tariff impacts, with prices rising from approximately 17,000-18,000 RMB per ton to 27,000-28,000 RMB, reflecting a significant increase of 10,000 RMB per ton [2]. - Despite rising costs for single additives, the prices of domestic compound additives have not seen widespread increases due to their high profit margins [2][4]. Strategic Responses - Companies are focusing on enhancing supply chain management and optimizing procurement channels to cope with international supply chain uncertainties [4]. - The industry is witnessing a shift from producing single components to focusing on compound additives, with companies like Ruifeng New Materials successfully transitioning [2][3][4]. Regulatory and Certification Importance - API certification is crucial for lubricant companies, as it enhances product quality and market competitiveness, although it also incurs high costs [1][47]. Future Trends - The market is expected to see continued growth in domestic production capabilities, with companies like Ruifeng and Wuxi Southern leading the way in innovation and market share expansion [44][51]. - The ongoing trade tensions and tariff adjustments are likely to accelerate the domestic substitution process, particularly for state-owned enterprises [23][24]. Additional Important Insights - The lubricant additives market in China is estimated to have a capacity of around 800,000 to 900,000 tons, with foreign brands, especially the top four, holding about 65% of the market share [22]. - The impact of tariffs on the cost structure of lubricant products is significant, with potential increases in production costs leading to higher retail prices [30][32]. - The competitive landscape is evolving, with domestic companies increasingly challenging established foreign brands through cost-effective and high-quality products [44][45][57]. This summary encapsulates the critical insights and developments within the lubricant additives industry as discussed in the conference call, highlighting the challenges and strategic responses of key players in the market.

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call primarily discusses the impact of the 34% tariffs imposed by China on imports from the U.S. on the domestic chemical new materials industry [2][20]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Impact on Amino Acids**: The tariffs are expected to benefit amino acids as a substitute for soybean meal, leading to an increase in soybean and soybean meal prices. Companies like Meihua, Shufeng, and Xinghu are projected to see valuation increases due to their low valuations and supportive dividend yields [2][20]. - **Limited Long-term Impact**: Historical data from 2018 indicates that tariff events have limited long-term effects on overall price levels, with domestic soybean prices stabilizing over time. The expected strong harvests in Brazil and Argentina may further reduce reliance on U.S. imports [2]. - **Capital Market Performance**: Capital World Financial Holdings is expected to report a stable Q1 profit of 800-900 million, with an annual dividend and buyback target of 2 billion, resulting in a nearly 7% dividend yield. The current valuation is considered low, indicating solid investment potential [3]. - **Domestic Substitution Acceleration**: Tariff adjustments are likely to accelerate the domestic substitution of electronic chemicals, benefiting companies like Lixiao Technology and China Steel Corporation, which are seeing significant demand growth in biomedicine, industrial water treatment, and new energy sectors [2][4]. - **Lubricant Additives Market**: The lubricant additives industry is significantly impacted by tariffs, favoring domestic leaders like Ruifeng New Materials, which can leverage cost advantages to capture more market share [5][8]. - **Precision Ceramics Growth**: The precision ceramics industry is experiencing accelerated domestic substitution, with increased production costs for U.S. companies like Corning due to tariffs, providing growth opportunities for domestic firms like Guoj ceramics [10]. - **Semiconductor Materials**: Companies such as Shanghai Xinyang, Aisen Co., Daosen Co., and Feikai Materials are expected to benefit from accelerated domestic substitution in the semiconductor materials sector, with significant growth potential noted for Dinglong Co. in the polishing liquid market [11][15]. - **Fluoropolymers and Fine Chemicals**: The fluoropolymer and fine chemical sectors are anticipated to benefit from U.S. tariffs and DuPont sanctions, with domestic companies like Industrial Group and Dongyue Hydrogen Energy expected to make breakthroughs in high-end electronic technology [17][18]. Additional Important Insights - **Propane Industry Impact**: The propane industry is significantly affected by the trade war, with over half of the propane imported from the U.S. facing a 30% tariff, leading to increased costs for domestic PDH companies [6]. - **Tire Industry Challenges**: The tire industry faces challenges from new trade barriers, with high tariffs on U.S. auto parts impacting profit margins and local prices [7]. - **Chemical Industry Capacity Cycle**: The chemical industry is expected to see a capacity cycle turning point in 2025, with a projected decline of 25-30% in the industry cycle, influenced by decreasing raw material costs [22]. - **OPEC Production Decisions**: OPEC's decision to increase production amidst uncertain global demand reflects deeper pressures, including those from the U.S. government [23]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the implications of tariffs on various sectors within the chemical and materials industries, as well as broader market dynamics.

复合剂认证持续突破，远期有望实现量价齐升。API 认证既是润滑油添加剂企业技术高低的提现方式， 也是进入下游大客户供应链的前提条件，同时更高级别的复合剂拥有更高的产品附加值。公司目前已自 主掌握了 CF-4 级、CH-4 级、CI-4 级、CK-4 级柴油机油复合剂配方工艺，SL 级、SM 级、SN级、SP 级汽油机油复合剂配方工艺，其中 CI-4、CK-4、SN、SP 级别复合剂已通过国外权威的第三方台架测 试，已取得多个产品的 OEM 认证。用事实证明了公司产品的性能与品质等级，为公司加快进入主流市 场奠定了坚实的基础。未来公司将持续扩充产品品类，不断满足核心客户的定制化产品需求，进一步提 升公司的核心竞争力。未来随着公司复合剂产品持续突破以及公司产能快速扩张，公司润滑油添加剂产 品有望实现量价齐升。 投资建议：公司是国内润滑油添加剂头部企业，目前产品已通过最高级别的API 认证，公司产品已进入 下游润滑油领先企业壳牌、美孚、道达尔、中石化、中石油供应链，未来随着公司下游客户覆盖率提升 以及产品结构升级，有望实现量价齐升。预计公司2025-2027 年分别实现归母净利润8.5、10.4、12.7 亿 元， ...