Group 1 - The core point of the article is the announcement by two major South Korean petrochemical companies, Lotte Chemical and HD Hyundai Chemical, regarding their application to the government for approval of their petrochemical business integration plan, aimed at enhancing industry competitiveness and optimizing industrial layout [1][2] - The integration plan specifically addresses the structural overcapacity issue in the naphtha cracking center (NCC) within the domestic petrochemical industry, with Lotte Chemical planning to divest its NCC operations at the Daesan Industrial Complex and merge them with HD Hyundai Chemical [1] - The restructuring involves a total ethylene production capacity of 1.95 million tons per year, with Lotte Chemical's Daesan plant contributing 1.1 million tons and HD Hyundai Chemical contributing 850,000 tons [1] Group 2 - The South Korean petrochemical industry is facing a severe survival crisis due to continuous new capacity additions leading to oversupply and significant profit margin declines [2] - In response to the crisis, ten major South Korean petrochemical companies signed an agreement in August to restructure their businesses, which includes substantial capacity reductions to fundamentally improve competitiveness [2]

Core Insights - The global peak in oil demand is now expected to be delayed until after 2030, with projections indicating it may not occur until 2040, contrary to previous forecasts that suggested a peak before 2030 [2][3] - The shift in oil demand is influenced by the ongoing energy transition and the need for countries to meet climate goals, particularly the Paris Agreement's target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius [2][3] - The Chinese petrochemical industry is entering a new phase focused on quality and efficiency, with an emphasis on high-end, green, and intelligent transformation [2][4] Oil Demand Projections - Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast, predicting global oil demand will grow from 103.5 million barrels per day last year to 113 million barrels per day by 2040 [2] - The International Energy Agency (IEA) anticipates that oil and gas demand may continue to rise until 2050, with oil consumption expected to increase by 13% compared to 2024 levels [3] - OPEC's Secretary-General has also indicated that oil will still account for about 30% of the global energy mix by 2050, with daily consumption exceeding 120 million barrels [3] Factors Influencing Demand - Bottlenecks in low-carbon technology adoption and infrastructure development are contributing to the delay in peak oil demand [3] - The rise of artificial intelligence (AI) has led to increased electricity consumption, which is still largely dependent on traditional energy sources like coal and oil, further driving oil demand [3] Green Transition Imperatives - Traditional oil and gas companies must leverage their technological and financial advantages to diversify into green energy development [4] - China's new Energy Law emphasizes the equal importance of renewable and fossil energy, pushing petrochemical companies to adjust their capital expenditure towards clean energy projects [4] Petrochemical Industry Dynamics - The demand for petrochemical feedstocks is expected to become more resilient, with their share of oil demand projected to rise from approximately 15% to nearly 30% by 2050 [5] - China is transitioning from a chemical consumption powerhouse to a strong producer, with self-sufficiency rates for certain chemical products expected to exceed 130% to 140% by 2030 [5] - The industry must focus on eliminating outdated capacity, enhancing energy efficiency, and developing high-value products to improve resilience and international competitiveness [5] Future Outlook for China's Petrochemical Sector - During the "14th Five-Year Plan" period (2026-2030), significant changes in energy structure, technology routes, and market dynamics are anticipated in China's petrochemical industry [6] - The consumption of refined oil is expected to peak, while aviation kerosene will still have growth potential, and the share of green hydrogen will significantly increase [6] - The electrification rate is projected to rise from approximately 16%, although there will still be substantial decarbonization pressure in the heating sector [6]

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - PX: Short-term, avoid chasing high prices [1] - PTA: In a unilateral volatile market, avoid chasing high prices [1] - MEG: Supply-demand pattern improves, reduce short positions, go long MEG and short PX [1] 2. Core Views - PX: Close long positions, go long MEG and short PX, pay attention to calendar spread reverse arbitrage positions [6] - PTA: At a high valuation level, close long positions, go long MEG and short PTA for hedging [6] - MEG: At a low price level, supply is expected to shrink, the supply-demand balance sheet improves, close short positions and reverse arbitrage, go long MEG and short PX for hedging [6] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Dynamics - PX: Naphtha prices fell at the end of the session. On November 26, PX prices rose, with a January Asian spot deal at $828. The PX-naphtha spread is widening. Downstream polyester demand is normal, with the overall operating rate of Chinese polyester fibers at 91.30% as of November 20, and the weaving industry's operating rate dropping from 88% to 87% [3][4] - MEG: On November 15, several units of Huajin Aramco's project achieved mechanical completion. An Anhui 300,000-ton/year syngas-to-ethylene glycol unit is restarting and expected to produce normally this weekend [4][5] - Polyester: An Indonesian company plans to build a 720,000-ton/year polyester bottle chip plant. On November 26, the sales of Jiangsu and Zhejiang polyester yarns and direct-spun polyester staple fibers declined [5] Trend Intensity - PX trend intensity: -1 - PTA trend intensity: -1 - MEG trend intensity: 0 [6] Price and Spread Data | Futures | PX | PTA | MEG | PF | SC | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Yesterday's closing price | 6774 | 4684 | 3896 | 6264 | 445 | | Change | 56 | 28 | 23 | 30 | -3.6 | | Change rate | 0.83% | 0.60% | 0.59% | 0.48% | -0.80% | | Month spread | PX1 - 5 | PTA1 - 5 | MEG1 - 5 | PF12 - 1 | SC11 - 12 | | Yesterday's closing price | -30 | -44 | -73 | -116 | 1.2 | | Previous day's closing price | -34 | -50 | -88 | -60 | 0.7 | | Change | 4 | 6 | 15 | -56 | 0.5 | | Spot | PX CFR China ($/ton) | PTA East China (yuan/ton) | MEG spot | Naphtha MOPJ | Dated Brent ($/barrel) | | Yesterday's price | 829 | 4647 | 3910 | 557.62 | 63.55 | | Previous day's price | 825.67 | 4635 | 3918 | 560.88 | 62.84 | | Change | 3.33 | 12 | -8 | -3.25 | 0.71 | | Spot processing fee | PX - naphtha spread | PTA processing fee | Short fiber processing fee | Bottle chip processing fee | MOPJ naphtha - Dubai crude spread | | Yesterday's price | 261.8 | 195.49 | 203.75 | 57.31 | -4.34 | | Previous day's price | 259.7 | 174.59 | 209.88 | 67.53 | -4.34 | | Change | 2.09 | 20.9 | -6.12 | -10.22 | 0 | [2]

Group 1 - The core message emphasizes the need to implement the spirit of the 20th Central Committee and Xi Jinping's important speech, focusing on strengthening the real economy and promoting green, low-carbon, and high-quality development [1][2] - The company aims to enhance the petrochemical industry by reducing oil consumption, increasing chemical production, and extending the supply chain to improve quality and efficiency [1] - There is a focus on carbon capture, utilization, and storage technology to improve resource utilization efficiency and reduce carbon emissions, contributing to national energy security and green transformation [1] Group 2 - The company is encouraged to leverage its leading role in the wind power equipment industry to support the development of a new energy system in the province [2] - The development of the East Dongying Zero Carbon Industrial Park is highlighted, with an emphasis on accelerating construction and expanding the industrial cluster [2] - The importance of ecological protection and restoration in the Yellow River Delta is stressed, aligning with Xi Jinping's ecological civilization thought [2]

Core Viewpoint - The petrochemical industry is at a significant turning point driven by policies aimed at "controlling growth and reducing inventory" [1][2] Group 1: Policy Implications - The "controlling growth" strategy is central to the long-term improvement of the industry, as outlined in the "Petrochemical and Chemical Industry Stabilization Growth Work Plan," which emphasizes scientific regulation of major project construction and strict control of new refining capacity [2] - The "reducing inventory" approach focuses on addressing current contradictions, with safety, environmental protection, and energy efficiency being key policy drivers [2] Group 2: Industry Cycle and Capacity - The industry is nearing the end of its production cycle, with significant slowdowns in capacity growth expected by 2026 for most products [1][4] - Despite high operating rates, the industry has not experienced severe oversupply, with average capacity growth for various petrochemical products exceeding 10% per year from 2019 to 2025 [3] Group 3: Future Outlook - By 2026, the production growth rate of most petrochemical products is expected to decline significantly, leading to improved capacity utilization in sectors like PX, polyester filament, methanol, and acetic acid [4] - The industry is anticipated to transition from localized recovery to comprehensive improvement between 2027 and 2028, supported by high entry barriers and reduced new capacity growth [4] Group 4: Profitability and Investment Recommendations - The PX industry chain is projected to provide significant profit elasticity for refining companies in 2026, driven by supply-demand imbalances and external factors such as sanctions and refinery attacks affecting oil exports [5] - Recommended stocks include Hengli Petrochemical, Rongsheng Petrochemical, Hengyi Petrochemical, Dongfang Shenghong, and Sinopec, with a suggestion to pay attention to Huajin Co [5]

11月24日，江苏省委书记信长星、省长刘小涛在南京会见中国石化集团董事长侯启军。信长星说，能源 保供、产业创新、安全生产等工作，都离不开石化产业的提质升级，需要中国石化继续给予支持。希望 双方围绕推动能源体系和石化产业转型升级深化合作，培育更多新的增长点，共同服务全国发展大局。 侯启军表示，中国石化将坚决扛牢保障国家能源安全政治责任，充分发挥全产业链优势，拓展与江苏的 全方位合作，积极布局更多先进技术和优质项目，促进产业智能化、绿色化、融合化发展，助力江苏高 质量发展继续走在前列。 ...

为确保聚烯烃新产品的稳定生产，扬子石化提前对要转产新产品的生产线进行摸底排查，科学安排好转 产时间和流程;试生产过程中，严格执行操作法，实时掌控装置运行动态，把握装置运行的细微变化， 稳定装置的生产和产品质量，最大限度减少过渡料，降低生产成本。 中化新网讯 截至10月底，扬子石化今年开发的8个牌号聚烯烃新品总产量已超过年计划，提前完成总部 下达的年度生产目标。 扬子石化成立了以公司领导为组长的新产品产销研用领导小组，审定新产品年度开发及市场推广计划， 及时协调解决影响产销研用过程中的"肠梗阻";成立了以生产厂为主体的产销研用项目组，有效提升了 新品开发效率和客户满意度。 此外，该公司还实施集定制开发、定量生产、定点销售、特色服务于一体的新产品开发销售模式，将新 产品研发优势和特色技术服务融入生产和销售环节，以最快速度实现了工业化生产和销售，为客户量身 定制聚烯烃新产品，满足客户的个性化需求。 ...

Group 1: Industry Overview - The petrochemical industry in Asia is facing overcapacity and weak demand, leading to declining profit margins and operational losses [1][3] - Companies are compelled to consider restructuring and consolidation as a necessary response to current challenges [1][3] Group 2: Company Actions - South Korean companies have agreed to reduce naphtha cracker capacity by up to 25%, with ongoing negotiations for business restructuring [1] - HD Hyundai Chemical and Lotte Chemical are finalizing plans to integrate their naphtha cracker operations into a joint venture to cut ethylene production [1] - Some companies, like Lotte Chemical, are planning to transition from basic chemicals to specialty chemicals [1] Group 3: Market Predictions - The global petrochemical market is not expected to recover in the short term, necessitating difficult decisions and adjustments in scale by companies [1] - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts a decline in economic growth rates for G20 countries, which may further impact demand for petrochemical products [2] Group 4: Challenges and Risks - Trade barriers, including U.S. tariffs and geopolitical tensions, are contributing to uncertainty in the market, affecting exports from countries like India [2] - The ongoing expansion of global petrochemical capacity from 2025 to 2026 is not favorable for companies, as demand remains weak in most economies [3] - Companies are urged to shut down outdated assets and rationalize operations before any potential recovery in demand can occur [3]

浙江省人民政府办公厅近日印发《打造大宗商品期现一体化场外市场推进大宗商品资源配置枢纽建设实 施方案》，其中提出，建设现货交易平台。在完成浙江国际油气交易中心等现有交易平台整合基础上， 分阶段建设"统一领导、统一架构、统一账户、统一运营、统一标准、统一团队"的现货交易平台。推动 现货交易平台交易增量持续增长。巩固以成品油、化工类大宗商品为核心的交易板块，常态化开展线上 交易。聚焦钢材、塑料、橡胶等优势品种拓展业务范围。鼓励石化领域龙头企业在现货交易平台开设销 售专区。在获得国家相关主管部门批准的前提下，探索开展国储铁矿石轮动业务合作。探索期现一体化 发展。推动现货交易平台建立健全基差报价专区，引入期货交易所实时行情，探索开展联动点价业务。 探索与期货交易所依法共同推动扩大重点交易品种交割仓库覆盖范围和规模。 ...

人民财讯11月26日电，浙江省人民政府办公厅近日印发《打造大宗商品期现一体化场外市场推进大宗商 品资源配置枢纽建设实施方案》，其中提出，推动现货交易平台交易增量持续增长。巩固以成品油、化 工类大宗商品为核心的交易板块，常态化开展线上交易。聚焦钢材、塑料、橡胶等优势品种拓展业务范 围。鼓励石化领域龙头企业在现货交易平台开设销售专区。在获得国家相关主管部门批准的前提下，探 索开展国储铁矿石轮动业务合作。 ...