然而，这个创富神话之地正陷入一场前所未有的财政困境。根据加州立法分析办公室的最新预 测，2026-27财年该州将面临近180亿美元的预算赤字，这已经是加州连续第四年出现财政缺 口。更令人担忧的是，结构性赤字可能在2027-28财年攀升至350亿美元。 为何最富有的加州会面临财政危机？这并非简单的周期性财政波动。尽管AI热潮推动的股市繁荣 为加州带来了强劲的税收增长，但不断膨胀的公共开支，尤其是医疗补助计划MediCal，正在以 更快的速度吞噬财政收入。加州已经连续三年动用应急基金、内部借款和审计腾挪来弥补数百亿 美元的赤字，可用的财政工具正在枯竭。 既然加州公共财政缺钱严重，亿万富翁又如此之多，很多人想到了一个激进的提议：为什么不向 亿万富豪们额外征税来解决财政赤字呢？ 这个方案很快就浮出水面：服务业雇员国际工会医疗工作者西部分会（SEIU-UHW）推动的 《2026年亿万富翁税收法案》，计划对加州约200-250名身家超过10亿美元的亿万富翁征收一 次性5%的财富税。 加州讨论中一次性的5%超级富豪税，究竟是推动社会平等，缩小财富差距，还是在杀鸡取卵， 扼杀创新？无论最终是否落地，超级富豪们都已经提前开始跑 ...

上个月还住在郊区洋房，下个月就被迫露宿街头。 这种极致的反差，很可能是美国中产的真实人生。根据美国住房与城市发展部（HUD）的官方报告，2024年美国约有77万人处于无家可归状态，其中大 量流浪汉曾有过体面工作。 他们曾是程序员、军人或者小企业主，可以说是典型的中产。 但他们和破产的距离，只隔着一次裁员、生病或者房子断供。在中国，我们习惯把这三者称为中产破产三件套。 体面工作、高额收入带来的稳固生活，其实非常脆弱。 想要持续拥有着一切，那么你就不能失业、不能生病、不能投资失败。 否则，你所拥有的一切将全部归零。 中产，全美国最「惨」的阶层？ 人在美国，从拥有一切到一无所有，很可能只源于： 一次轻微的饭后腹痛。 一个光鲜的美国中产，午后在急诊被确诊为急性阑尾炎，只要进手术室，那么他就有负债的风险。 虽然保险可以报销80%的费用，但自费5000美元（约合人民币3.5万元）的手术账单，依然能让一个中产一朝破产。 在美国，它们有一个更残酷的名字——斩杀线。 斩杀线，原本是游戏中的术语，意为一击即杀。如今几乎成为形容美国中产阶级滑落的专有名词，也成为刺痛全球中产神经的敏感词汇。它意味着： 根据美国财经媒体的统计，全美只 ...

Group 1 - China is expected to be a focal market for global investors by 2026, driven by the rise in the valuation and quality of its technology sector, which has developed an independent AI ecosystem with vast applications and market potential [5][6][21] - Since April 2025, there has been a trend of global investors reallocating assets away from the US, which is likely to continue into 2026, leading to increased capital allocation towards Chinese assets [7] - The Chinese stock market is anticipated to experience a valuation reassessment driven by innovation, with future upward momentum expected to shift from valuation recovery to profit improvement [8] Group 2 - The "barbell strategy" is recommended for asset allocation, combining high-dividend stocks for defensive positioning with a focus on technology stocks benefiting from self-reliance and international expansion [8][9] - The core drivers for the A-share market in 2026 are expected to be policy support, profit recovery, and favorable liquidity conditions, with a focus on sectors such as technology innovation and manufacturing [9][10] - The Hong Kong stock market is projected to benefit from strong capital inflows and active IPO activities, supported by policies favoring artificial intelligence [21] Group 3 - The 14th Five-Year Plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system and expansion of domestic demand, with investment opportunities in traditional industry upgrades, advanced manufacturing, and emerging sectors like renewable energy and aerospace [10][11] - The focus on technology self-reliance and high-quality development is expected to drive policy initiatives aimed at stimulating consumption and stabilizing the real estate market [11] - The anticipated US Federal Reserve interest rate cuts are expected to enhance global liquidity and lower financing costs, benefiting risk assets and corporate earnings [14][19] Group 4 - In the context of a reshaped global order, investment strategies for 2026 should focus on diversified paths to enhance portfolio resilience, particularly in technology sectors related to capital expenditure expansion and energy transition [20] - Asia is identified as a core growth engine, with positive outlooks for stock markets in mainland China, Hong Kong, Singapore, and South Korea, while maintaining a cautious approach towards US equities [20][21] - The emphasis on diversification includes emerging market bonds outperforming developed market bonds, with gold expected to continue its upward trend in 2026 [22]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The macroeconomic environment of developed economies, particularly in the West, is at a critical point of accelerating risk accumulation, with a deep binding of fiscal and monetary policies due to negative debt accumulation [2] - Modern Monetary Theory (MMT) is transitioning from theoretical research to implicit practice, suggesting that sovereign nations with monetary autonomy can continuously issue currency for fiscal financing as long as inflation is controllable [2] - The excessive liquidity created by central banks has not directly flowed into the real economy but has instead surged into long-term narratives in technology and virtual economies, leading to asset bubbles [2] Group 2: Wealth Distribution and Employment - The wealth effect from asset prices is exacerbating social divisions in Western societies, while technological innovations, particularly in AI, are increasing employment pressures without a corresponding rise in overall productivity [3] - The internal wealth gap and employment issues in Western countries are spilling over into geopolitical tensions, manifesting as anti-immigrant sentiments and the rise of nationalism [3] Group 3: Investment Trends - Central banks are likely to continue injecting new currency into the financial system, benefiting primarily large commercial banks and wealthy individuals who can leverage complex financial instruments to hedge risks [3][4] - Ordinary workers, at the end of the monetary circulation, will see their purchasing power diluted as inflation rises, leading to an exacerbation of wealth inequality [4] Group 4: Shift in Asset Preferences - The global trend of "de-dollarization" is accelerating, with a decline in the dollar's share in global foreign exchange reserves, which is expected to lead to increased volatility in markets and a heightened demand for hedging against interest rate and currency risks [5] - Gold and digital currencies are being positioned as alternative assets, with gold serving as a hedge against sovereign currency credit risks amid the de-dollarization trend [5] Group 5: Future of Gold and Precious Metals - The future of gold faces significant challenges, including potential liquidity shocks during financial crises, which could lead to a temporary loss of gold's safe-haven status [7] - The restructuring of the U.S. energy system under policies that promote domestic energy production could strengthen the dollar and U.S. Treasury credit, reducing gold's appeal as an alternative asset [8] - The widespread application of robotics and AI in production could lead to structural deflation, undermining gold's core value as an inflation hedge [9] - The potential commercialization of controlled nuclear fusion could disrupt gold's value by making it more abundant, fundamentally altering its status as a scarce asset [11] Group 6: Strategic Metals and National Security - The demand for strategic metals such as tungsten, lithium, and cobalt is expected to rise due to their critical roles in defense and energy security, with significant implications for investment strategies [15][16] - The geopolitical landscape is driving nations to stockpile key strategic materials, which may lead to increased prices and demand for these metals [13][15]

Group 1: Monetary Policy and Financial Support - The People's Bank of China and the State Administration of Foreign Exchange in Shenzhen aim to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, targeting a credit structure with technology and inclusive loans at 2 trillion each, and green and digital economy loans at 1 trillion each by the end of 2025 [1] - Shenzhen's deposit balance is expected to exceed 14 trillion yuan and loan balance to approach 10 trillion yuan by 2025, maintaining the third-largest scale among cities in China [1] - New loans for service consumption and elderly care in Guangdong province account for over 60% of the total [1] Group 2: Technology and Innovation Financing - Shenzhen has launched the first batch of technology boards in the bond market, with an issuance scale exceeding 40 billion yuan, and three financing models have been promoted nationwide [2] - Over 5,100 technology enterprises in their initial and growth stages have received more than 16 billion yuan in loans through the "Tengfei Loan," "Technology Startup Pass," and "Tech Exchange" models [2] - A total of 611 billion yuan in loans has been issued to 2,843 technology enterprises and 122 technology transformation projects, ranking third among cities in China [2] Group 3: Payment Services and Cross-Border Transactions - Shenzhen has established a comprehensive payment demonstration zone, enhancing inbound consumption by over 30% year-on-year [3] - The city has implemented a tax refund system that allows for refunds to domestic and international electronic wallets, resulting in a 199% increase in sales of tax refund goods [3] - Cross-border payment services have facilitated nearly 1 million transactions amounting to approximately 4 billion yuan, becoming a key method for residents and businesses in Shenzhen and Hong Kong [7] Group 4: Currency Settlement and Trade Facilitation - Shenzhen's cross-border RMB settlement for goods trade has reached 30%, with a total of 12.317 billion yuan in cross-border RMB receipts and payments, marking a significant increase since 2009 [4] - The number of trial banks for cross-border trade has expanded to seven, with transaction amounts increasing by 90% [4] - Financial support for foreign trade has saved over 600 million yuan in settlement fees for more than 250,000 enterprises [5] Group 5: Green Finance Initiatives - Shenzhen has initiated the first national pilot for green foreign debt, issuing over 40 billion yuan in loans to support green development projects [8] - Carbon reduction loans amounting to 200.46 billion yuan are expected to facilitate a reduction of 4.2 million tons of carbon emissions [8] - The climate investment and financing project loan balance is nearing 250 billion yuan, with new loans of 38.39 billion yuan issued in 2025 [8] Group 6: Tax Refund and Fraud Prevention - Efficient tax refund services have benefited nearly 5.6 million individuals, with a total of 90.5 billion yuan in personal tax refunds processed [10] - The introduction of online tax refund for personal postal items has reduced processing time by 3-5 working days [10] - Anti-fraud initiatives have been actively promoted in schools and communities, targeting youth and elderly populations [10]

理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司（RBA）发出警告称，过剩的流动性正将资产价格推升至远超基本面支撑的水平，当前市场泡沫已蔓延至人工智能（AI）之外，形成一场"全面狂 康托普洛斯特别指出，AI热潮令信贷投资者尤为担忧。若AI繁荣成功，债券持有人无法分享其超额收益;若其失败，投资者将承担损失。 当前，市场正日益关注科技巨头承诺投入AI基础设施的数千亿美元资金——其中大部分将通过美国债务市场筹集。数据显示，微软、 Alphabet、亚马逊和Meta未来一年的资本支出预计将增长34%，达到约4400亿美元。 "科技板块今年将有所回落，"康托普洛斯质疑道，"投资者究竟在科技债券中看到了什么，以至于愿意为一项可能五到十年后就过时的技术，提 供长达40年的融资?" 目前，采用交易所交易基金(ETF)进行跨资产类别投资的RBA已完全退出公司债市场。而一年前，其还对该领域超配。 "当利差跌破90个基点时，对我们而言，相对价值命题就不再成立，"康托普洛斯解释。截至周三，美国高等级信贷风险溢价升至78个基点，且 自去年5月以来一直低于90个基点。 欢"。 理查德·伯恩斯坦顾问公司(RBA)发出警告称，过剩的流动性正将资产价格推升至远超基本 ...

美股周四早盘小幅走低，受到大型科技股的拖累。在前期人工智能板块推动大幅上涨后，交易员纷纷锁 定获利，同时评估有关美国经济的喜忧参杂的信号。国防板块上扬，因美国总统特朗普暗示计划提高军 费开支。 截至发稿，标普500指数跌0.1%；纳斯达克100指数跌0.3%，或终结三日涨势；道指跌0.2%。洛克希德 马丁和Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc．等企业股价上涨逾7%，此前特朗普表示计划到2027年将 军事开支提高至1.5万亿美元。 美股周四早盘小幅走低，受到大型科技股的拖累。在前期人工智能板块推动大幅上涨后，交易员纷纷锁 定获利，同时评估有关美国经济的喜忧参杂的信号。国防板块上扬，因美国总统特朗普暗示计划提高军 费开支。 截至发稿，标普500指数跌0.1%；纳斯达克100指数跌0.3%，或终结三日涨势；道指跌0.2%。洛克希德 马丁和Kratos Defense & Security Solutions Inc．等企业股价上涨逾7%，此前特朗普表示计划到2027年将 军事开支提高至1.5万亿美元。 全球债券涨势停滞。美国企业12月宣布裁员人数降至17个月低点，可能缓解对 ...

岁末年初，多家外资机构密集发布了2026年市场展望。其中，高盛、摩根大通、摩根士丹利、瑞银 等知名机构表达了对中国资产的乐观预期。 中国资产具备持续反弹基础成为市场共识。高盛在最新报告中明确提到，中国股票市场到2027年末 有望实现38%的涨幅。摩根大通将中国市场的评级上调至"超配"，认为中国市场估值仍处于合理区间， 且国际投资者仓位较轻。摩根士丹利小幅上调了中国股票指数目标，预测2026年12月沪深300指数目标 点位为4840点。瑞银将MSCI中国指数2026年年末目标设定为100点，较当前水平存在约14%的上涨空 间，同时将恒生指数目标设定为30000点。 外资机构普遍认为，中国股市的上涨动力正在发生结构性变化——2025年主要依赖估值修复，而 2026年将转向企业盈利的实质改善。 高盛预计，中国企业盈利在2026年及2027年可能分别增长14%和12%，上市公司海外营收增长预计 将推动MSCI中国指数成分股业绩到2030年每年增加约1.5%。 瑞银证券中国股票策略分析师孟磊认为，2026年全部A股盈利增速有望从2025年的6%进一步升至 8%。名义国内生产总值增速提升、企业营收增长、支持政策持续出台， ...

Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) will continue to implement a moderately loose monetary policy, enhancing counter-cyclical and cross-cyclical adjustments to support high-quality economic development and financial market stability [1][1][1] - The PBOC aims to improve financial services for the real economy, deepen financial reforms, and enhance macro policy coordination to expand domestic demand and optimize supply [1][1][1] Export Control - The Ministry of Commerce has announced strengthened export controls on dual-use items to Japan, prohibiting exports to military users and any entities that could enhance Japan's military capabilities [2][2][2] Financing in Brain-Computer Interface Sector - Qiang Brain Technology, a brain-computer interface "unicorn," has completed approximately 2 billion yuan in financing, marking the second-largest financing in the sector after Neuralink [3][3][3] - The investment round included prominent investors such as IDG and various strategic partners, indicating strong interest in the brain-computer interface market [3][3][3] Regulatory Insights - Financial regulators are conducting research to address barriers preventing long-term capital from entering the market, focusing on enhancing bank wealth management investments in A-shares [5][5][5] - The State Administration for Market Regulation is seeking public opinions on the draft review guidelines for dairy product production licenses to improve quality and safety oversight [4][4][4] Stock Market Activity - Two high-performing stocks, Guosheng Technology and Jiamei Packaging, have announced temporary suspensions for stock price investigations due to significant price fluctuations of 370.2% and 230%, respectively [6][6][6] - The U.S. stock market saw significant gains, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising by 484.90 points, marking a new historical closing high [7][7][7] Commodity and Currency Market - The ICE U.S. Dollar Index increased by 0.30%, while gold and silver prices saw notable rises, with gold futures up by 1.21% [9][9][9] - Bitcoin futures decreased by 0.81%, while Ethereum futures rose by 1.23%, reflecting mixed trends in the cryptocurrency market [9][9][9] Strategic Developments - The National Bureau of Statistics plans to establish data standards in advanced fields such as intelligent agents and embodied intelligence, aiming to enhance data infrastructure and quality [12][12][12] - The Ministry of Water Resources emphasizes the need to accelerate the construction of a modern water network to support agricultural modernization and disaster prevention systems [13][13][13]

Group 1 - The core market index, the Shanghai Composite Index, has surpassed the peak reached on November 14, 2025, marking a new high not seen since late July 2015 [1] - The CSI 500 index, which focuses on quality mid-cap companies in the A-share market, has shown strong performance, with the CSI 500 ETF from E Fund (510580) rising by 2.2% today and a total increase of 4.83% over the first two trading days of 2026 [1] - The CSI 500 index represents a balanced mix of traditional and emerging sectors, covering cyclical industries like energy and materials, as well as core tracks in new productivity such as electronics, pharmaceuticals, electric equipment, and computers, aligning with the theme of economic transformation and upgrading [1] Group 2 - The CSI 500 ETF from E Fund (510580) is highlighted as an efficient tool for investors to diversify their investments in quality mid-cap stocks in the A-share market [1] - Goldman Sachs released a macro report on January 5, 2026, titled "China 2026 Outlook: Exploring New Momentum," recommending an overweight position in Chinese stocks for the year [1]