全球宏观及大类资产配置周报 东证衍生品研究院 宏观策略组 2025年12月29日 上海东证期货有限公司 目录 一、宏观脉络追踪 二、全球大类资产走势一览 三、大类资产周度展望 ——贵金属、外汇、美股、A股、国债 四、全球宏观经济数据跟踪 一、宏观脉络追踪 圣诞节假期前后海外市场交易清淡，宏观消息有限，风险偏好温和回升。本周公布的美国三季度GDP远超 市场预期，主要由居民消费支撑，首申数据也小幅回落，就业市场仍未显著恶化，经济数据维持韧性支撑 市场风险偏好。另一方面，特朗普即将公布新任美联储主席人选，哈塞特当选概率仍然领先，美联储面临 的政治压力增大，短期通胀担忧缓解后，市场对于未来流动性释放保持乐观，美债收益率曲线持续走陡， 资金投机热情高涨，金属板块涨势凶猛，短期波动难以降低，注意下跌风险。 短期国内宏观利空有限，市场对于经济数据的走弱已有充分预期，北京市优化房地产的政策则对市场形成 提振，商业航天、锂电、算力、有色等各类热点题材均有所表现，预计后续股市行情震荡偏积极。 二、全球大类资产走势一览 全球大类资产走势一览——权益市场 | | 截至2025/12/26 | 近三个月走势 | 近一周涨跌幅 | 当月 ...

证 券 研 究 报 告 弱美元下流动性修复，权益商品普涨 全球资产配置每周聚焦 (20251128-20251205) 证券分析师：金倩婧 A0230513070004 冯晓宇 A0230521080005 林遵东 A0230524100005 涂锦文 A0230525070006 王胜 A0230511060001 2025.12.08 报告摘要 www.swsresearch.com 证券研究报告 2 ◼ 全球资本市场回顾：本周(20251128-20251205)本周美国ADP就业和PMI数据双双不及预期，其中美国11月PMI录得48.2，预期49，前值48.7，ADP新增就业减少3.2万人， 预期增加1万人。景气度数据的不及预期巩固了美联储年内降息预期，本周全球流动性有所修复，全球权益和商品均多数上涨。1）固收方面，10Y美债收益率录得4.14%，本周上 升12BPs，美元指数下行0.46%，当前点位为99.0，弱美元交易持续；2）权益方面，本周A股指数除科创50指数外其余指数均收涨，创业板指领涨市场；全球市场中韩国综合股价 200领涨全球，巴西股市跌幅明显，总体上新兴市场好于发达市场；3）商品方面， ...

Core Viewpoint - The China Securities Index Co., Ltd. announced the regular adjustment plan for various indices, including the CSI 300, CSI 500, CSI 1000, CSI A50, CSI A100, and CSI A500, which will take effect after the market closes on December 12 [1]. Group 1: CSI 300 Index Adjustments - The CSI 300 index will replace 11 constituent stocks, with new additions including Guolian Minsheng, Guangqi Technology, Ningbo Port, Huadian New Energy, Dongshan Precision, Zhongtian Technology, Zhinancai, and Light Media. Stocks removed from the index include FAW Jiefang, Oppein Home, Fuyao Glass, Longyuan Power, and Trina Solar [2][3]. Group 2: CSI 500 Index Adjustments - The CSI 500 index will replace 50 constituent stocks, with new additions such as Dongfang Yuhong, Heertai, Huahong Semiconductor, Yantian Port, Dazhu CNC, Oppein Home, Zhongce Rubber, and Supor. Stocks removed include China Great Wall, Semir Fashion, Zhongwen Media, and Wangfujing [5]. Group 3: CSI 1000 Index Adjustments - The CSI 1000 index will replace 100 constituent stocks, with new additions including Fenghua Hi-Tech, Shijia Photon, Guoji Precision, Yongding Co., Fuling Pickled Vegetable, Galaxy Magnet, and Hanyu Pharmaceutical [5]. Group 4: Sector Weight Changes - In the CSI 300 index, the number of samples in the information technology and communication services sectors increased by 4 and 2, respectively, with weight increases of 1.46% and 0.75% [5]. - In the CSI 500 index, the industrial sector saw an increase of 11 samples, with a weight increase of 2.48% [5]. - In the CSI 1000 index, the communication services and industrial sectors saw increases of 6 and 2 samples, with weight increases of 0.44% and 0.37% [5]. Group 5: CSI A50 and A100 Index Adjustments - The CSI A50 index will replace 4 constituent stocks, with new additions including Zhongji Xuchuang, Huagong Technology, Guangqi Technology, and Shenghong Technology. Stocks removed include ZTE Corporation, Sanhuan Group, Shanghai Airport, and Hualu Hengsheng [5]. - The CSI A100 index will replace 6 constituent stocks, with new additions including Dongfang Fortune, Guangqi Technology, and Zhongke Shuguang. Stocks removed include Shanghai Airport, Unisplendour, and Citic Securities [5][6]. Group 6: CSI A500 Index Adjustments - The CSI A500 index will replace 20 constituent stocks, with new additions including Zhongtian Technology, Genesis, Borui Pharmaceutical, Guotai Haitong, and Chipone Technology [8].

Core Viewpoint - Shenling Environment announced a board meeting to discuss the proposal for a shareholder meeting and reported its revenue composition for 2024, highlighting a significant reliance on the data services sector [1] Group 1: Company Announcement - Shenling Environment held its fourth board meeting on November 25, 2025, to review the proposal for a shareholder meeting [1] - The company reported a market capitalization of 14.5 billion yuan [1] Group 2: Revenue Composition - For the year 2024, the revenue composition of Shenling Environment is as follows: - Data services industry: 51.31% - Special industry: 23.33% - Industrial industry: 20.26% - Public construction and commercial industry: 4.61% - Other businesses: 0.49% [1]

Group 1 - A-shares market reached a historic milestone with total market capitalization exceeding 100 trillion yuan for the first time, closing at 100.19 trillion yuan, an increase of 14.33 trillion yuan since the beginning of the year [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through the previous high of 3731.69 points set on February 18, 2021, marking a ten-year high since August 2015 [1] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 27.642 billion yuan, a significant increase of 5.196 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day, with a total trading amount of 223.65 trillion yuan year-to-date [1] Group 2 - The information technology sector saw the most significant market capitalization increase of 11.55% since July, contributing greatly to the overall market capitalization growth [2] - Other sectors such as materials and industrials also experienced notable growth, with market capitalizations increasing by 7.10% and 6.54% respectively, reflecting the resilience of the real economy [2] - The financial sector maintained a strong position with a market capitalization of 177.022 trillion yuan, showing a 3.39% increase [2] Group 3 - There is significant potential for incremental capital inflow into the A-share market, driven by active trading and increased participation from institutional investors [3] - Retail investors are gradually entering the market, but their overall participation remains low, as indicated by the new account openings and the slow rate of capital inflow compared to previous years [4] - The trend of residents reallocating their assets is expected to continue, with a historical high of 162 trillion yuan in household deposits, indicating a potential shift towards capital markets [4] Group 4 - Institutional capital is anticipated to continue flowing into A-shares, with foreign investment shifting from net selling to net buying, and insurance funds expected to invest over 400 billion yuan in the stock market [5] - Suggested investment directions include technology sectors such as consumer electronics and AI software, new consumption trends, and thematic investments like commercial aerospace and brain-computer interfaces [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that despite recent market volatility due to geopolitical tensions, the overall market trend remains upward, with expectations for significant gains in the coming months [1][3][6] - The S&P 500 index is projected to reach a target range of 6050 to 6150 points, with a year-end target of 6650 points, suggesting a strong bullish sentiment [2][3] - The Nasdaq 100 index is expected to reach around 22000 points, with the QQQ ETF target price estimated at approximately 540 USD [2] Group 2 - The technology sector is anticipated to continue its upward trend, having been the strongest performing sector recently, with significant improvements in company earnings [6][10][14] - There is a notable rotation of funds back into the technology sector, while the healthcare sector is experiencing outflows due to regulatory pressures [13][14] - The overall sentiment in the market remains cautious, with many investors still skeptical about the sustainability of the current rally, despite a 20% rebound from recent lows [16] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar is expected to weaken further in the coming months, with projections indicating a potential drop to around 93 or 94 on the dollar index [8][9] - This dollar weakness is viewed as a strategic move to boost exports and may benefit emerging markets and commodities [9][12] - Precious metals, particularly gold, are forecasted to perform well, with a target price of 3800 USD for gold by October [10][12] Group 4 - The market is likely to experience a period of consolidation and minor corrections, particularly around August, which aligns with historical seasonal trends [4][6] - The overall market breadth and momentum indicators suggest that the market is not facing substantial challenges in the near term, maintaining a positive outlook [2][16] - The current economic environment, characterized by potential fiscal issues and expectations of interest rate cuts, is favorable for precious metals and industrial metals [12][10]

Core Viewpoint - The launch of new dividend indices by China Securities Index Company reflects the growing demand for dividend assets in the A-share market, driven by improving dividend behaviors among listed companies [1][4]. Group 1: New Indices and Their Characteristics - The newly released indices include the CSI A500 Dividend Index, CSI A500 Low Volatility Dividend Index, and CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index, aimed at enhancing the dividend index investment ecosystem [1]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index focuses on high dividend yield stocks, while the Low Volatility Dividend Index selects stocks with high dividends and low volatility, and the Dividend Growth Index emphasizes continuous dividends and high yields [1][2]. - The adjustment cycles for these indices are set at six months, with specific limits on the proportion of adjustments for each index [2]. Group 2: Industry Distribution and Coverage - The CSI A500 Dividend Growth Index covers the most industries, with 11 primary sectors, including Industrial (29.55%), Financial (22.58%), and Consumer Staples (18.75%) [2]. - The CSI A500 Dividend Index and Low Volatility Dividend Index cover 7 and 10 primary sectors respectively, with Financial, Industrial, and Consumer Discretionary being the top sectors [2]. Group 3: Dividend Trends and Market Conditions - In 2024, the total dividend payout by A-share listed companies reached a record high of 2.4 trillion yuan, with an average payout ratio of 37.7%, up by 2.5 percentage points from 2023 [4]. - Over 1,800 companies have paid dividends for five consecutive years, and nearly 800 have done so for ten years, indicating a strong trend in dividend payments [5]. Group 4: Investment Environment and Policy Support - The low interest rate environment enhances the long-term investment value of dividend assets, with the 10-year government bond yield dropping to a historical low of 1.82% [6]. - Regulatory policies have been introduced to strengthen dividend constraints for listed companies, including the incorporation of cash dividends into market value management tools [6][7]. - The combination of supply-side incentives for companies and demand-side enthusiasm from investors creates a favorable market environment for dividend assets [7].