1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the analyzed energy and chemical products are rated as "Oscillating" [1][2][3][4] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, oil prices oscillated. The EIA data showed an increase in US crude oil inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased. The market demand is strong as it digests OPEC+'s production increase without inventory accumulation. With OPEC+ increasing supply, the demand remains resilient, leading to an oscillating and slightly upward - trending oil price [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Wednesday. The domestic refinery operating rate decreased slightly. The supply of low - sulfur fuel oil in Singapore is expected to be tight, while the supply pressure will continue to suppress the Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market. In the short term, it will mainly oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main asphalt contract rose on Wednesday. The inventory level was stable week - on - week, and the operating rate increased. The impact of the adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not yet appeared. The supply in July is stable with a slight increase. The demand in the south is slowly recovering, while the rainfall in the north hinders demand. It will oscillate following the cost - end crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of polyester products such as TA, EG, and PX rose slightly on Wednesday. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. TA inventory may gradually accumulate, and there is a strong expectation of inventory accumulation for ethylene glycol in the third quarter, with its price under pressure [2]. - **Rubber**: The prices of rubber products such as RU, NR, and BR rose slightly on Wednesday. The rubber - producing areas are in full - scale tapping, raw material prices are loose, downstream tire operating rates declined, and inventory slightly increased. It is expected to oscillate weakly. Attention should be paid to rubber purchase and storage news and tariff negotiations between Vietnam and the US [3]. - **Methanol**: The production of Iranian devices is gradually recovering. Although the short - term arrival volume has not increased much, the long - term arrival volume will increase. The short - term supply shortage has eased, and the price has returned to an oscillating trend [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The upstream is still in the maintenance season, with little change in overall supply. As the off - season arrives, downstream operating rates have declined, and enterprises purchase on demand. The price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Recently, the profit of chlor - alkali has decreased, and enterprise operating rates have declined. Although demand has not improved significantly, the fundamentals have not deteriorated. Before the market provides obvious opportunities, short - selling is not recommended, and attention should be paid to the impact of macro - policies [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: WTI August contract closed up $0.05 to $68.38 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; Brent September contract closed up $0.04 to $70.19 per barrel, a 0.06% increase; SC2508 closed at 520.1 yuan per barrel, up 4.4 yuan per barrel, a 0.85% increase. US crude oil inventories increased by 7.1 million barrels to 426 million barrels last week, far exceeding expectations [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.51% to 2982 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2509 of low - sulfur fuel oil rose 0.82% to 3692 yuan per ton. As of July 9, the operating rate of domestic refineries was 63.61%, down 0.46 percentage points from last week [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 0.86% to 3623 yuan per ton. The total inventory level of domestic refineries was 27.91%, unchanged week - on - week; the social inventory rate was 35.81%, up 0.33% week - on - week; the operating rate of asphalt plants was 35.53%, up 2.72% week - on - week [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed at 4718 yuan per ton, up 0.17%; EG2509 closed at 4283 yuan per ton, up 0.37%; PX futures main contract 509 closed at 6724 yuan per ton, up 0.42%. The sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were about 40% [2]. - **Rubber**: The main contract RU2509 of natural rubber rose 60 yuan per ton to 14045 yuan per ton; NR main contract rose 25 yuan per ton to 12095 yuan per ton; BR main contract rose 5 yuan per ton to 11310 yuan per ton. As of July 6, the social inventory of natural rubber decreased by 0.02 million tons, a 0.02% decrease [3]. - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang was 2385 yuan per ton, the price in Inner Mongolia's northern line was 1962.5 yuan per ton, the CFR China price was 275 - 279 US dollars per ton, and the CFR Southeast Asia price was 339 - 344 US dollars per ton [3]. - **Polyolefins**: The mainstream price of East China拉丝 was 7050 - 7180 yuan per ton. The profit of oil - based PP was - 341.35 yuan per ton, and the profit of coal - based PP was 911.73 yuan per ton [4]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC in East China was stable, with the mainstream price of calcium - carbide - based type 5 material at 4740 - 4840 yuan per ton, and the mainstream price of ethylene - based material at 4800 - 5150 yuan per ton [4]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - This part provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on July 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [5]. 3.3 Market News - The Red Sea, a global important shipping route, was attacked again last week after months of calm. The attacker is suspected to be the Yemeni Houthi rebels supported by Iran, and a cargo ship sank, causing at least 4 crew members to die [7]. - The EIA data showed that US crude oil inventories increased last week, while gasoline and distillate inventories decreased [7]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: It shows the closing price trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [9][11][13][15][17][19] - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [22][23][24][25] - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It shows the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, etc. [36][37][38][39][41][42][44][45][47][48][49][51][52] - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spreads between different varieties such as crude oil's internal and external markets, B - W spread of crude oil, high - and low - sulfur spread of fuel oil, etc. [53][54][55] - **Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of products such as ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [58][59][60][61][62] 3.5 Research Team Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Research Institute and Director of Energy and Chemicals, with over ten years of experience in futures and derivatives market research [64]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with in - depth research on the energy industry chain [65]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, good at data analysis and logical reasoning [66]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, PE, PP, and PVC, with experience in combining financial theory and industrial operations [67].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 7 月 8 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价低开高走，其中 WTI 8月合约收盘上涨 0.93 美元至 67.93 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.39%。布伦特 9 月合约收盘上涨 1.28 美元至 69.58 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.87%。SC2508 以 512.0 元/桶收盘，上涨 10.7 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 2.13%。油价无视欧佩克+超预期增产利空，价格偏强 | | | | 运行。宏观方面，美国总统特朗普签署行政令，将对等关税生效 | | | | 日和谈判截止日期从 7 月 9 日延后至 8 月 1 日。此外，他还向 14 | | | | 个国家发出首批关税信函，8 月 1 日起将对日本和韩国加征 25% | | | | 关税，对马来西亚、哈萨克斯坦和突尼斯征收 25%的关税，南非 | | | 原油 | 则将面临 30%的税率，老挝和缅甸将被征收 40%的关税。 | 震荡 | | | 其他受影响国家还包括印尼 32%、孟加拉国 3 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Group 2: Report's Core View - The prices of most energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. For crude oil, due to macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, it will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision. High - sulfur fuel oil may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. For asphalt, it is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies. Polyester products like TA and EG are also expected to fluctuate. Rubber is expected to fluctuate weakly, and methanol and other products will maintain a fluctuating trend [1][3][4][5] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI 8 - month contract closed down 0.45 dollars to 67 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.67%. Brent 9 - month contract closed down 0.31 dollars to 68.8 dollars/barrel, with a decline of 0.45%. SC2508 closed up 3.3 yuan/barrel to 507 yuan/barrel, with an increase of 0.66%. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, and the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%. The Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration". With macro - uncertainties and the fading of geopolitical premiums, the oil price will continue to fluctuate pending the OPEC meeting's production increase decision [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 1.05% to 2987 yuan/ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2509 closed up 0.89% to 3623 yuan/ton. As of July 2, the fuel oil inventory in Fujairah decreased by 139.1 million barrels (13.46%) week - on - week. The high - sulfur fundamentals are slightly stronger than the low - sulfur ones. High - sulfur prices may have a short - term rebound, but it is recommended to short the high - sulfur cracking spread on rallies. The domestic low - sulfur supply remains sufficient, and the internal - external price difference is expected to remain low [3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.25% to 3588 yuan/ton. This week, the shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises decreased by 14.3% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of 69 modified asphalt enterprises decreased by 0.8% week - on - week. The pricing center may shift back to the north after the peak season in the north. It is recommended to short the cracking spread on rallies [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 1% at 4746 yuan/ton, EG2509 closed down 0.26% at 4288 yuan/ton, and PX 509 closed down 0.74% at 6740 yuan/ton. The downstream demand is weak, and the production and sales of polyester yarn are weak. TA and EG prices are expected to fluctuate [4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed down 110 yuan/ton to 14015 yuan/ton. The tire production load decreased, the rubber inventory increased slightly, and the rubber price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5] - **Methanol**: With the recovery of Iranian plants, the subsequent imports will increase. The MTO profit is being compressed, and the short - term methanol price will maintain a fluctuating trend [5] - **Polyolefins**: The supply is at a high level but the increase is limited, the total inventory is slowly decreasing, and the price center moves with the cost [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride**: As the downstream enters the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure, but the arbitrage and hedging space is narrowing. The PVC price is expected to continue to fluctuate [7] 2. Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, and their changes for various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on July 3 and July 2, 2025 [9] 3. Market News - Iran's Foreign Minister said that Iran will continue to engage with the UN nuclear watchdog. The US June non - farm payroll data exceeded expectations, the unemployment rate dropped to 4.1%, and the Fed Chairman Powell said that a July rate cut is "still under consideration" [11] 4. Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts for various products such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. over a certain period [33][34][35] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [45][46][50] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It includes the spread and ratio charts between different products such as crude oil internal - external markets, fuel oil high - low sulfur, etc. [61][63][65] 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the cash - flow and profit charts for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol and PP [70] 5. Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [77][78][79]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All the energy and chemical products in the report are rated as "Oscillation", including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefin, and PVC [1][3][4][6][8] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After sharp rises and falls in the market, oil prices are likely to oscillate within a narrow range, and there is room for a slight increase in the oil price center in the future, subject to further guidance from OPEC+ production policies [1] - The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market will be supported in the short term, but the supply from Iran and Russia is declining, and attention should be paid to the risk of significant oil price fluctuations [3] - The price of asphalt is affected by both the cost - side oil price and weak demand, and it is expected to oscillate [3] - The supply of polyester products is expected to increase, demand support is insufficient, and prices are expected to return to a low - range consolidation, with PX and TA following the cost of crude oil [4] - The rubber market has weak fundamental contradictions, and rubber prices are expected to oscillate [4] - Methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to factors such as the expected resumption of Iranian production and the impact on port arrivals in Taicang [6] - The fundamentals of polyolefins have not improved significantly, and prices are expected to oscillate weakly due to the decline in crude oil prices [6] - PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate as the downstream enters the off - season, but the arbitrage and hedging space is gradually narrowing [8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Thursday, WTI August contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; Brent August contract closed up $0.05 to $67.73 per barrel, a 0.07% increase; SC2508 closed at 498 yuan per barrel, down 7.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.46% decrease. Russian Urals crude oil price has fallen below the $60 per - barrel limit [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Thursday, the main contract FU2509 of high - sulfur fuel oil on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.03% at 3019 yuan per ton; the main contract LU2508 of low - sulfur fuel oil closed up 0.19% at 3693 yuan per ton. Singapore and Fujeirah fuel oil inventories increased week - on - week [1][3] - **Asphalt**: On Thursday, the main contract BU2509 of asphalt on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed up 0.2% at 3563 yuan per ton. This week, the shipment volume of domestic asphalt manufacturers increased by 0.7% week - on - week, and the capacity utilization rate of modified asphalt enterprises increased [3] - **Polyester**: TA509 closed down 0.42% at 4770 yuan per ton; EG2509 closed down 0.69% at 4293 yuan per ton. Iranian ethylene glycol plants are expected to resume production, and the price center of ethylene glycol is expected to return to a low - range consolidation [3][4] - **Rubber**: On Thursday, the main contract RU2509 of natural rubber on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 270 yuan per ton to 14040 yuan per ton; the main contract of 20 - number rubber rose 335 yuan per ton to 12145 yuan per ton. The global natural rubber production in May decreased, and the consumption decreased slightly [4] - **Methanol**: The spot price in Taicang is 2765 yuan per ton. Iranian plants are expected to resume production, and methanol futures prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **Polyolefin**: The mainstream price of East China wire drawing is 7150 - 7250 yuan per ton. Due to the cease - fire between Israel and Iran and the decline in crude oil prices, polyolefin prices are expected to oscillate weakly [6] - **PVC**: The prices in East, North, and South China markets fluctuate. As the downstream enters the off - season, PVC prices are expected to continue to oscillate [8] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price data of various energy and chemical products on June 26th and 25th, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price increases and decreases, and basis changes [9] 3.3 Market News - The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported that as of the week ending June 20th, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 5.8 million barrels, gasoline inventories decreased by 2.1 million barrels, and distillate inventories decreased by 4.1 million barrels [12] - An impaired facility at the 14th - phase project of the South Pars Refinery in Iran's Bushehr Province has resumed operation [12] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of the main contracts of various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [32] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Charts of inter - period contract spreads for various products, including fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA, are provided [47] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: The report includes charts of inter - variety spreads, such as the spread between domestic and foreign crude oil markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil [64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Charts of production profits for products like ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE are presented [73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team of Everbright Futures, including Zhong Meiyan, Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo, along with their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 24 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 伊以冲突可能走向停火，油价应声暴跌，其中 WTI 8 月合约收盘 | | | | 下跌 5.33 美元至 68.51 美元/桶，跌幅 7.22%。布伦特 8 月合约收 | | | | 盘下跌 5.53 美元至 71.48 美元/桶，跌幅 7.18%。SC2508 以 537.7 | | | | 元/桶收盘，下跌 32.2 元/桶，跌幅为 5.65%。伊朗最高国家安全委 | | | | 员会秘书处 23 日发表声明说，为回应美国对伊朗核设施的侵略行 | | | | 径，伊朗当天对美国驻卡塔尔的乌代德空军基地进行了导弹打击。 | | | | 特朗普在美国东部时间当天 18 时 02 分，北京时间 24 日 6 时 02 | | | | 分，发表的帖文中说，停火将在大约 6 小时后正式生效，届时以 | | | 原油 | 伊双方将完成各自正在进行的"最后任务"。根据协议，停火将分 | 震荡 | | | 阶段实施：伊朗先开始停火，到第 12 个小时 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 20 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心继续上移，其中 WTI 7 月原油即期合约因六月节假 | | | | 期休市。布伦特 8 月合约收盘上涨 2.15 美元至 78.85 美元/桶，涨 | | | | 幅 2.80%。SC2508 以 574.5 元/桶收盘，上涨 15.5 元/桶，涨幅为 | | | | 2.77%。知情人士称，美国总统特朗普已告诉他的高级助手，称他 | | | | 已批准了对伊朗的攻击计划，但暂不下达最终命令，以观察伊朗 | | | | 是否会放弃其核计划。美国高级官员正在为未来几天对伊朗发动 | | | | 袭击的可能性做准备。伊朗副外长加里布阿巴迪警告美国不要为 | | | | 了支持以色列而介入以方与伊朗的冲突。加里布阿巴迪表示，如 | | | 原油 | 果美国执意介入，伊朗将作出回应。花旗银行表示，如果伊朗以 | 震荡 | | | 色列冲突升级，导致伊朗 110 万桶/日的石油出口中断，以 5 月的 | | | | 出口水平为基准，可 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The core driver of current oil price valuation is the development of the Israel - Iran conflict, which has intensified concerns about the supply side of the oil market. Overall, the center of oil prices will continue to move upward with large amplitude [1][3]. - For fuel oil, the supply - demand situation of high - sulfur fuel oil is stronger than that of low - sulfur fuel oil, and the LU - FU spread still has downward space [3]. - For asphalt, the short - term cost - end crude oil price fluctuates greatly, and BU is restricted by the demand side, with limited upward space and smaller increases than crude oil and fuel oil [3][4]. - For polyester, PX is expected to fluctuate with the cost side, TA has a situation of increasing supply and weak demand, and EG prices will fluctuate in the short term [4]. - For rubber, the rubber price will fluctuate under the situation of increasing supply and weak demand [6]. - For methanol, the price is expected to fluctuate strongly with increased volatility [6]. - For polyolefins, short - term price fluctuations will increase, and investors are advised to avoid risks in the short term [6][7]. - For PVC, the fundamentals still have pressure, and it is not recommended to continue short - selling before the market provides obvious space [7]. 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - On Tuesday, the WTI July contract closed up $3.07 to $74.84 per barrel, a 4.28% increase; the Brent August contract closed up $3.22 to $76.45 per barrel, a 4.40% increase; SC2507 closed at 552.5 yuan per barrel, up 31.9 yuan per barrel, a 6.13% increase [1]. - The Israel - Iran conflict is intensifying. The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 to 720,000 barrels per day and for 2026 to 740,000 barrels per day. It is expected that the global oil supply will increase by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [1]. - In the week ending June 13, the US API crude oil inventory decreased by 10.133 million barrels, the largest single - week decline since the week ending August 25, 2023 [1]. Fuel Oil - On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2509 on the SHFE closed up 0.03% at 3,247 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2508 closed down 1.25% at 3,806 yuan per ton [3]. - In May, the average commercial inventory level of crude oil and fuel oil at Shandong coastal ports was 8.7 million tons, a slight 0.91% decline month - on - month [3]. Asphalt - On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2509 on the SHFE closed down 0.03% at 3,644 yuan per ton [3]. - Next week, refinery resumption is expected to drive a slight increase in production, but overall supply will remain low. Northern demand is relatively stable, while southern demand is weak due to rain [3][4]. Polyester - TA509 closed at 4,782 yuan per ton on the previous day, up 0.34%; EG2509 closed at 4,400 yuan per ton, up 0.59% [4]. - A 400,000 - ton/year synthetic gas - to - ethylene glycol plant in Shaanxi is restarting, and a 500,000 - ton PX plant in Japan has stopped for maintenance [4]. Rubber - On Tuesday, the main natural rubber contract RU2509 closed down 40 yuan per ton to 13,870 yuan per ton; the NR main contract closed down 20 yuan per ton to 12,140 yuan per ton [4]. - Increased rainfall in the producing areas has led to不畅 raw material output at the beginning of tapping, and downstream demand is weak [6]. Methanol - On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,615 yuan per ton, and the Inner Mongolia northern line price was 1,987.5 yuan per ton [6]. - The inland inventory is rising, but the MTO plant operating rate remains high, and the port inventory increase will slow down [6]. Polyolefins - On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China PP was 7,150 - 7,280 yuan per ton. Due to high geopolitical uncertainty, short - term price fluctuations will increase [6][7]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - On Tuesday, the East China PVC market fluctuated and consolidated. With the downstream entering the off - season, the fundamentals are under pressure [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis, futures prices, spot prices, basis rates, and other data of various energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. on June 17 and 16 [8]. 3.3 Market News - On June 17, the Middle East geopolitical situation was tense. Israel's Defense Minister Katz said the Israeli military had destroyed the central area of Iran's Natanz nuclear facility [10]. - The IEA has lowered the average oil demand growth forecast for 2025 and 2026 and expects sufficient oil supply in the market until 2030 [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents the closing price charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [12][14][16][18][20][22]. 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows the basis charts of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, etc. [25][27][33][36]. 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides the spread charts of inter - period contracts of various energy and chemical products, including fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [39][41][44][47][49][52][55]. 4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - It presents the spread charts of inter - variety contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as crude oil internal - external spreads, fuel oil high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [57][58][59][62][63]. 4.5 Production Profits - The report shows the production profit charts of various energy and chemical products, including ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, etc. [64][65][67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the Everbright Futures Energy and Chemical Research Team, including the assistant director and energy and chemical director Zhong Meiyan, and analysts Du Bingqin, Di Yilin, and Peng Haibo [71][72][73][74]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, and the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979 [76].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 6 月 13 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价重心小幅回落，其中 WTI 7 月合约收盘下跌 0.11 美元至 | | | | 68.04 美元/桶，跌幅 0.16%。布伦特 8 月合约收盘下跌 0.41 美元/ | | | | 桶，至 69.36 美元/桶，跌幅 0.59%。SC2507 以 494.4 元/桶收盘， | | | | 上涨 3.3 元/桶，涨幅为 0.67%。地缘风险仍在持续，美国国务院 | | | | 和军方表示，由于中东地区可能发生动荡，美国政府正在将非必 | | | | 要人员从该地区撤离。根据最新的审查结果和"确保美国人在国 | | | | 内外的安全"的承诺，已下令撤出美国驻巴格达大使馆的所有非 | 震荡 | | 原油 | 必要人员。该大使馆此前已实行人员限制，所以此命令不会影响 | | | | 大量人员。此外，美国国务院也批准非必要人员及其家属离开巴 | 偏强 | | | 林和科威特。随着油价的上行，成品油市场情绪积极，山东地炼 | | | | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating but gives individual ratings for each commodity, including "volatile and bullish" and "volatile" for various energy and chemical products [1][2][4][6] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical factors in the Middle East are the main reason for the rapid rise in oil prices. The short - term trend of Brent crude oil is expected to be volatile and bullish after breaking through the $70 integer mark [1] - **Fuel Oil**: Supported by the tight supply in June and the cost - side rebound, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be volatile and bullish. Considering the summer demand peak, a long - spread strategy can be considered when the spread is low [2] - **Asphalt**: Although there is short - term bottom support for asphalt prices due to low supply in North China and expected supply reduction in Shandong, the upward space is limited due to increased rainfall in the South. The overall trend is expected to be high - level volatile in the short term and face downward pressure in the medium term [2] - **Polyester**: PX follows the cost trend and is in a de - stocking pattern. TA is under price pressure due to weak fundamentals, and EG shows a volatile trend with weak demand support [4] - **Rubber**: Although there is short - term support from raw material prices, the high inventory of downstream tires limits the rebound space of rubber prices [4] - **Methanol**: Despite the increase in port and inland inventories, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive methanol prices up [6] - **Polyolefins**: With the fading of tariff impacts and the arrival of the off - season, the short - term fundamentals have few contradictions. The sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to push polyolefin prices up [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: Although the fundamentals are under pressure as the downstream enters the off - season, the sharp rise in overnight crude oil prices is expected to drive PVC prices to rebound [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, WTI July contract rose $3.17 to $68.15/barrel, a 4.88% increase; Brent August contract rose $2.90 to $69.77/barrel, a 4.34% increase; SC2507 closed at 497.4 yuan/barrel, up 16.2 yuan/barrel, a 3.37% increase. Geopolitical turmoil in the Middle East and a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories are the main factors driving the price increase [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, FU2507 fell 0.74% to 2939 yuan/ton, and LU2508 rose 0.17% to 3563 yuan/ton. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil in Asia has strengthened slightly, and the high - sulfur market is relatively stable [2] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, BU2509 fell 1.06% to 3461 yuan/ton. The total inventory of domestic refinery asphalt decreased, and the social inventory increased slightly. The supply in North China is low, and there is an expected reduction in Shandong [2] - **Polyester**: TA509 rose 0.17% to 4620 yuan/ton, EG2509 rose 0.37% to 4285 yuan/ton, and PX futures rose 0.4% to 6528 yuan/ton. TA's fundamentals are weak, and EG's inventory is increasing [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, RU2509 rose 85 yuan/ton to 13890 yuan/ton, NR rose 60 yuan/ton to 12215 yuan/ton, and BR fell 5 yuan/ton to 11225 yuan/ton. Raw material prices have risen slightly, but downstream demand is weak [4] - **Methanol**: The MTO device operating rate remains high, and port and inland inventories are increasing. The price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyolefins**: The profit margins of different production methods vary. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand is weak, but the price is expected to rise due to the increase in crude oil prices [6] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The domestic real estate construction is stable, but the downstream is entering the off - season. The price is expected to rebound due to the increase in crude oil prices [6][7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and basis rate quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc. [9] 3.3 Market News - China and the US held the first meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism in London, reaching a consensus on some economic and trade issues [11] - The US EIA reported a decrease in US commercial crude oil inventories last week, with an increase in refinery utilization rate [11] 3.4 Chart Analysis 4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents price trend charts of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] 4.2 Main Contract Basis - It shows basis trend charts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt, including the basis between different benchmarks and the basis of main contracts [29][30][31] 4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - The report provides spread trend charts for different contracts of various products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and ethylene glycol [43][44][45] 4.4 Inter - product Spreads - It shows spread trend charts between different products, including crude oil's internal - external spread, B - W spread, and the spread between fuel oil and asphalt [59][60][61] 4.5 Production Profits - The report presents production profit trend charts for products like ethylene - made ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [68][70][73] 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experience [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address, phone number, fax, customer service hotline, and postal code are provided [81]

Report Industry Investment Rating Not provided in the given content. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Crude oil is expected to rebound in the short - term, although the EIA monthly report has increased supply expectations, putting pressure on oil prices [1]. - Fuel oil is expected to show an oscillating trend. With cost - end rebounds, the absolute prices of FU and LU are expected to be oscillating and slightly stronger. Consider long spreads when the spread is low [2]. - Asphalt is expected to oscillate. Although there is bottom - support in the short - term, the upward space is limited, and there is a large downward pressure in the medium - term [2]. - Polyester is expected to oscillate. PX follows cost fluctuations, TA is under price pressure, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - Rubber is expected to rebound, but the rebound space is limited due to high downstream tire inventory [4][5]. - Methanol is expected to oscillate. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - Polyolefins are expected to oscillate. Although short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant, inventory and supply are at high levels [5]. - PVC is expected to oscillate weakly. As the downstream enters the off - season, there is pressure on the fundamentals [7]. Summary by Directory 1. Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, WTI 7 - month contract closed down $0.31 to $64.98 per barrel, a 0.47% decline; Brent 8 - month contract closed down $0.17 to $66.87 per barrel, a 0.25% decline; SC2507 closed up 2.6 yuan to 481.5 yuan per barrel, a 0.54% increase. EIA expects 2025 global oil production to be 104.4 million barrels per day, up 300,000 barrels per day from the previous forecast, and global oil demand to be 103.5 million barrels per day, down 200,000 barrels per day. US oil production in June averaged 13.42 million barrels per day, down from 13.56 million barrels per day in May. API reported a 370,000 - barrel decrease in US crude inventory, a 3 - million - barrel increase in gasoline inventory, and a 3.7 - million - barrel increase in distillate inventory for the week ending June 6 [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2507 on the SHFE closed up 0.85% at 2,966 yuan per ton, and the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2507 closed up. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market structure strengthened slightly due to expected supply tightness in June. The high - sulfur market structure was relatively stable, but the month - spread and spot premium declined from previous highs [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2507 on the SHFE closed down 0.85% at 3,507 yuan per ton. June asphalt supply in North China is low, and there is an expected supply reduction in Shandong. However, increased rainfall in the South is hindering demand. The expected 2025 January - June asphalt production in China is about 13.1 million tons [2]. - **Polyester**: TA509 closed up 0.22% at 4,612 yuan per ton, EG2509 closed up 0.31% at 4,269 yuan per ton, and PX futures contract 509 closed up 0.12% at 6,502 yuan per ton. The average sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were estimated at 50 - 60%. A 1.2 - million - ton PTA device in East China is shut down, and the ethylene glycol main port is expected to receive 128,000 tons from June 9 - 15. PX is in a de - stocking pattern, TA fundamentals are weak, and EG shows an oscillating trend [2][4]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main rubber contract RU2509 closed up 80 yuan at 13,805 yuan per ton, and NR closed up 105 yuan at 12,155 yuan per ton. In May, the national passenger car retail volume reached 1.932 million, a 13.3% year - on - year increase. The first typhoon may land in Hainan, and Thai raw material supply has been affected by rainfall [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the spot price in Taicang was 2,380 yuan per ton. MTO device operation is at a high level, but port and inland inventories are rising [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn polypropylene was 7,020 - 7,230 yuan per ton. With the arrival of the off - season, downstream demand has declined, but short - term fundamental contradictions are not significant [5]. - **PVC**: On Tuesday, the East China PVC market was firm. Domestic real estate construction is stable, but demand is expected to weaken as the off - season approaches [7]. 2. Daily Data Monitoring - Provides data on the basis, spot price, futures price, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, and fuel oil on June 11, 2025 [8]. 3. Market News - On June 10, the EIA released a monthly energy outlook report, adjusting the 2025 global oil production and demand forecasts, and also providing forecasts for US oil production and demand [10]. - On June 10, the first - day meeting of the China - US economic and trade consultation mechanism was held. After the high - level talks, both sides suspended some tariffs for 90 days and agreed to establish a consultation mechanism [10]. - On June 10, the API reported that US crude inventory decreased, while gasoline and distillate inventories increased for the week ending June 6 [11]. 4. Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: Displays the closing price trends of main contracts for various energy - chemical products from 2021 - 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [13][14][15] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: Shows the basis trends of main contracts for various products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [29][31] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: Presents the spread trends between different contracts for products like fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - product Spreads**: Displays the spread trends between different products, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, and the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [61][63] - **4.5 Production Profits**: Shows the cash - flow trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol production and the production profit trends of PP and LLDPE [70][72][75] 5. Team Member Introduction - Introduces the members of the research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and research areas [77][78][79]