Core Insights - The latest employment report indicates a slowdown in private sector job growth, attributed to tighter immigration policies leading to a decrease in labor supply [1][4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a wait-and-see approach, awaiting data on tariffs' impact on inflation and consumption [1][8] Employment Data Summary - In June, non-farm payrolls increased by 147,000, exceeding expectations, but private sector jobs only rose by 74,000, below the three-month average of 128,000 [1][4] - The unemployment rate fell from 4.24% to 4.12%, not due to increased job opportunities but rather a decline in labor force participation, also linked to stricter immigration policies [3][4] Labor Market Dynamics - The labor market is exhibiting a paradox where private sector job growth is slowing, yet the market is becoming tighter [4] - Job growth in June was primarily in state government and healthcare, with private sector employment led by a slowdown in the service industry [4] Immigration Policy Impact - Immigration restrictions have two main effects on the labor market: 1. It lowers the employment balance point needed to maintain stable unemployment from 210,000 jobs per month last year to 140,000 this year, with expectations of a further drop to 70,000 by year-end [5] 2. It suppresses labor force participation rates, as enforcement actions create a chilling effect, reducing the willingness of workers to participate [7] Federal Reserve Outlook - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% month-over-month in June, with a year-over-year growth rate declining from 3.8% to 3.7% [8] - Despite a gradual slowdown in labor input, there is no significant market loosening, and the unemployment rate remains low, leading the Federal Reserve to likely refrain from interest rate cuts in July [8]

Economic Outlook - Thailand's economic growth forecast for 2025 has been revised down to a range of 1.5% to 2% due to political instability and uncertainty affecting domestic economic drivers, particularly exports and government budget spending [1] - The World Bank has lowered its GDP growth forecast for Thailand in 2025 by 1.1%, now predicting a growth rate of only 1.8% due to global economic uncertainties leading to domestic economic weakness [1] - The Thai Commercial Bank's Economic Information Center has also reduced its growth forecast for 2026 to 1.4%, attributing the decline to trade tensions, changes in US policy, domestic economic vulnerabilities, and limited fiscal space [1] Trade and Exports - Despite a 14.9% increase in exports in the first five months of the year, this growth is primarily attributed to a surge in imports before the expiration of a 90-day tariff suspension by the US [2] - If the US imposes a 10% tariff, Thailand's economic growth rate may stabilize around 2%, but an increase to 18% could reduce the growth rate to approximately 1.5% [2] - The Thai Chamber of Commerce predicts that exports may shrink by over 10% in the second half of the year, potentially leading to near-zero growth for the entire year of 2025, which would directly impact manufacturing and employment [2] Political Stability and Investment - The ongoing political uncertainty, particularly with the suspension of Prime Minister Petongtarn, raises concerns about the stability of the current ruling coalition and the potential for government collapse before the next budget is passed [1] - Foreign investors have been net sellers of Thai stocks for nine consecutive months, with a total sell-off of $3.9 billion, reflecting concerns over the political outlook [2] - The performance of the Thai economy in the second half of the year will depend on several variables, including US Federal Reserve monetary policy, a rebound in tourism, and the speed of domestic budget spending [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that Jiangsu Province aims to leverage digital trade to promote high-quality development of service trade, with a target of reaching a service trade scale of 600 billion yuan and digital delivery service trade of 300 billion yuan by 2030, accounting for approximately 50% of the service trade [1] - Jiangsu will focus on institutional openness in digital trade, creating a digital trade ecosystem, and aligning with high-standard economic and trade rules, including pilot cooperation in digital trade with Singapore [1] - The province plans to establish national service trade innovation development demonstration zones and national digital trade demonstration zones, enhancing infrastructure and public services in key areas like Nanjing Software Valley to facilitate domestic and international industrial chain collaboration [1] Group 2 - A significant highlight of the policy is industry empowerment, with Jiangsu focusing on developing digital product trade in the cultural industry, strengthening cultural trade bases in cities like Nanjing, Wuxi, and Suzhou, and promoting exports in sectors such as animation and film [2] - The province aims to expand digital technology trade in advantageous fields, advance high-end software development, and implement an "Artificial Intelligence+" action plan to upgrade service outsourcing and promote enterprise transformation [2] - Jiangsu will enhance international transportation service capabilities, optimize international route networks, and accelerate the development of smart ports and waterways, while also improving the international competitiveness of tourism services and supporting international education services [2]

Overall Inventory Cycle - In April, the total inventory in the U.S. increased by 3.37% year-on-year, compared to a previous value of 3.43%[1] - The total sales in April rose by 3.74% year-on-year, down from 4.04% previously[1] - The data indicates a preliminary shift towards active destocking in the U.S. inventory cycle[1] Industry Inventory Cycle - Among 14 major industries in April, 10 were in passive restocking, including construction materials, metals, and consumer goods[12] - The historical percentile for overall inventory in April was 39.2%, with chemical products at 85.7% and construction materials at 83.2%[12] - Oil and chemical sectors are likely transitioning to active destocking, while construction and metal inventories remain high[12] Future Outlook - Despite uncertainties regarding tariffs, the U.S. inventory cycle is expected to lean towards active destocking in Q2 due to previous overstocking[1] - The "panic import" demand has extended the passive restocking cycle for downstream industries[14] - Active destocking is anticipated for automotive and automotive parts as of December 2024, with a continued trend into April 2025[14]

Core Viewpoint - Analysts warn that without more sectors joining the rebound, a sell-off in the US stock market may occur in the coming months [1] Market Performance - The S&P 500 index has rebounded strongly since the drop in April and is now less than 1% away from its historical high [1] - The proportion of constituent stocks trading above their 200-day moving average, a key indicator of market breadth, has remained unchanged since May [1] Sector Participation - Analysts from multiple institutions, including Janney Montgomery Scott, indicate that a lack of strong support from other major market sectors such as financials, transportation, and small-cap stocks could lead to a loss of upward momentum in the coming months [1] Market Sentiment - The market is currently viewed as severely overbought, with leading forces concentrated mainly in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 indices [1] - Technical strategist Dan Wantrobski emphasizes the importance of market breadth following the index breakout, noting that a failure to see this could lead to a potential pullback [1]

Core Insights - The average wage rate in Hong Kong increased by 3.5% year-on-year in March 2025, with approximately 62% of companies reporting wage increases, while 34% experienced declines [1][2] - After adjusting for inflation, the real average wage rate rose by 1.6% in March 2025 [1][2] - The nominal average salary index for employed individuals increased by 3.2% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, with a real increase of 1.6% after accounting for inflation [1][2] Industry Changes - All selected industry categories recorded year-on-year increases in nominal wage indices ranging from 3.1% to 4.1% in March 2025 [2] - Real wage indices across all selected industries also saw year-on-year increases, varying from 1.1% to 2.1% in March 2025 [2] - The nominal average salary index for all selected industries in the first quarter of 2025 increased between 2.0% and 3.9% year-on-year, while real average salary indices rose between 0.4% and 2.3% [2] Wage Index Data - The nominal wage index for the manufacturing sector was +3.2% in March 2025, with a real increase of +1.2% [3] - The wholesale and retail trade sector recorded a nominal increase of +3.1% and a real increase of +1.1% [3] - The transportation sector saw a nominal increase of +3.5% and a real increase of +1.5% [3] - The accommodation and food services sector had a nominal increase of +3.8% and a real increase of +1.8% [3] - The financial and insurance activities sector recorded a nominal increase of +4.0% and a real increase of +2.0% [3] - The real wage index for professional and business services was +2.1% with a nominal increase of +4.1% [3] - The personal services sector experienced a nominal increase of +3.9% and a real increase of +1.9% [3]

Industry Overview Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating. Core View The report provides an overview of various industries, including production, service, upstream,中游, downstream, and market pricing, highlighting recent trends and developments in each sector. Summary by Category Production and Service Industries - Shanghai plans to build a world - class ship and offshore engineering equipment industrial cluster, aiming for an industry added - value of over 45 billion yuan by 2030 and a localisation rate of over 85% for large LNG carriers [1]. - The memory market, led by DDR4, is rapidly warming up, with DDR4 particle prices doubling in just two weeks [1]. - Six departments have issued a guidance on financial support for consumption, setting up a 500 - billion - yuan re - loan for service consumption and elderly care [1]. - Retirement pensions are exempt from personal income tax in Beijing [1]. Upstream - International oil prices decreased significantly compared to the previous day [2]. - Coal inventory in Qinhuangdao decreased [2]. - Egg prices have rebounded recently [2]. Midstream - The polyester operating rate declined, while the PX operating rate increased [3]. - The coal consumption of power plants dropped to a three - year low, and the power plant operating rate decreased [3]. Downstream - The sales of commercial housing in first - and second - tier cities have seasonally declined to a near - three - year low [4]. - The number of domestic flights has decreased cyclically [4]. Market Pricing - The credit spread of the entire industry has slightly declined recently [5]. Industry Credit Spread - The credit spreads of multiple industries, such as agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery, mining, and chemical industry, have declined this week [48]. Key Industry Price Indicators - The prices of various commodities, including agricultural products, metals, energy, and chemicals, have shown different trends, with some rising and some falling [49].

Economic Overview - The overall local GDP in Hong Kong increased by 3.1% in Q1 2025 compared to the same period last year, up from a 2.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Service Sector Analysis - The total value added by all service activities rose by 2.6% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The value added by import and export trade, wholesale and retail industries increased by 4.2% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, contrasting with a 0.2% decline in Q4 2024 [1] - The accommodation and food services sector saw a decrease of 1.8% in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 2.6% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The transportation, warehousing, postal, and courier services sector's value added rose by 2.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 6.8% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The information and communications sector's value added increased by 1.3% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, slightly down from a 1.5% increase in Q4 2024 [1] - The financial and insurance sector's value added rose by 4.4% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.9% increase in Q4 2024 [1] Other Industries - The real estate, professional, and business services sector recorded a 0.3% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 1.7% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The public administration, social, and personal services sector's value added increased by 1.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, down from a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The local manufacturing sector's value added rose by 0.7% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, compared to a 1.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] - The electricity, gas, water supply, and waste management sector experienced a 1.4% decline in value added in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 3.0% increase in Q4 2024 [2] Construction Industry - The construction sector's value added declined by 1.9% in Q1 2025 year-on-year, following a 4.7% decrease in Q4 2024 [3]

2025 年 5 月，本公司煤炭销售量同比下降的主要原因，是下游煤炭需求偏 弱、受煤炭销售结算进度影响；航运货运量、周转量同比下降的主要原因，是业 务结构调整、航线结构变化；聚乙烯、聚丙烯销售量同比增长的主要原因，是上 年同期煤制烯烃生产设备按计划检修导致基数较低。 证券代码：601088 证券简称：中国神华 公告编号：临 2025-028 中国神华能源股份有限公司 2025 年 5 月份主要运营数据公告 中国神华能源股份有限公司（"本公司"）董事会及全体董事保证本公告内 容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容的真实性、准确 性和完整性承担法律责任。 | 运营指标 | 单位 | 2025 | 年 | 2024 | 年 | 同比变化 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | （重述后） | | （%） | | | | | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | 月 5 | 累计 | | （一）煤炭 | | | | | | | | | 1. 商品煤产量 | 百万吨 | 28.0 | 137.8 | 28.4 ...

Core Comparison - Air freight is suitable for urgent orders, high-value goods, and small to medium-sized shipments, with a transit time of 1-3 days and a total delivery time of 5-10 days [4][7] - Sea freight is more appropriate for bulk commodities, low-value goods, and large shipments, with a transit time of 10-20 days and a total delivery time of 15-25 days [4][6] Detailed Comparison and Recommendations - For urgent time requirements, air freight is prioritized [3] - For weight and volume, sea freight is better for bulk goods [3][4] Cost Analysis - Air freight costs approximately 1500-2500 RMB for 100kg, with total costs around 2000-3500 RMB including customs and delivery [8] - Sea freight costs about 800-1500 RMB for 1 ton of cargo, with total costs around 1500-3000 RMB, which is 30%-50% lower than air freight [8] Operational Complexity - Air freight offers a more straightforward process with door-to-door service provided by companies like DHL and FedEx, requiring minimal documentation [4][9] - Sea freight involves more complex logistics, requiring coordination with freight forwarders and more extensive documentation [4][9] Recommendations Based on Cargo Characteristics - High-value, fragile, or time-sensitive goods should opt for air freight [6][9] - Bulk raw materials or low-value goods should consider sea freight [6][9]