Market Outlook - The market is expected to remain constructive through the end of the year and into the next year, with a focus on earnings-driven growth rather than high beta rallies [1][2] - A transition is anticipated from a market characterized by high price-to-earnings (PE) ratios to one that is more focused on earnings, leading to moderate returns compared to the strong double-digit gains seen in recent years [2] Interest Rates and Market Impact - The 10-year yield is currently at 4.18%, with concerns about market performance if it approaches 4.5%, which has historically been a threshold for broader market struggles [3][4][5] - The correlation between interest rates and market breadth is noted, with rising rates typically leading to a deterioration in market breadth and impacting rate-sensitive sectors first, such as home builders [4][5] Sector Performance - Financials are highlighted as a potential area for broadening market performance, with transportation stocks showing significant improvement since Thanksgiving, indicating a positive outlook for cyclical data [6][7] - Transportation stocks are expected to outperform when manufacturing activity improves, as indicated by anticipatory leading indicators pointing upwards, suggesting a positive trend for PMI manufacturing data in 2026 [7][8]

Core Viewpoint - The business revenue index for major service industries in Hong Kong showed varying degrees of year-on-year increases in the third quarter of 2025, indicating overall growth in the service sector [1] Group 1: Business Revenue Index Changes - The business revenue index for the insurance industry increased by 40.7% year-on-year [1] - The financial industry (excluding banks) saw a year-on-year increase of 31.4% in its business revenue index [1] - The import-export trade industry experienced a 24.5% year-on-year rise in its business revenue index [1] - The banking sector's business revenue index rose by 12.9% year-on-year [1] - Conversely, the transportation industry reported a year-on-year decline of 5.8% in its business revenue index [1] Group 2: Sector-Specific Analysis - The computer and information technology services sector's business revenue index surged by 99.1% year-on-year and increased by 20.0% quarter-on-quarter [1] - The tourism, conference, and exhibition services sector experienced a year-on-year increase of 4.6% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 6.8% in its business revenue index [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - The overall service industry is expected to continue expanding due to moderate global economic growth and easing US-China trade tensions, which will support trade-related sectors [1] - Improvements in local consumer sentiment, a steady increase in visitor arrivals, active financial market activities, and government initiatives to diversify the economy are anticipated to benefit various service industries [1] - However, external uncertainties will need to be closely monitored for their impact on specific industries [1]

新浪财经ESG评级中心提供包括资讯、报告、培训、咨询等在内的14项ESG服务，助力上市 公司传播ESG理念，提升ESG可持续发展表现。点击查看【 ESG评级中心服务手册】 （来源：易碳家） 11月16日，经济合作与发展组织（OECD）发布题为《2025年有效碳率：能源使用税与碳定价的最新趋 势》（Effective Carbon Rates 2025： Recent Trends in Taxes on Energy Use and Carbon Pricing）的报告指 出，近年来碳定价在各国与各行业之间继续扩大，设计方案日益多样化和灵活，以平衡减排、增加公共 收入、加强能源负担能力、增强能源安全和提升竞争力等各种政策目标。报告分析了2018—2023年79个 国家碳税、排放交易体系（ETS）与燃料消费税的演化特征，这些国家温室气体排放量占全球温室气体 排放总量的82%。报告的主要结论如下： 1 2018年以来，有效碳税率（Effective Carbon Rates， ECR）一直在上升。 ECR的分布并不均衡，2023年，约16%的温室气体排放征收的ECR超过30欧元/tCO₂e，约11%的温室气 体排 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the employment outlook report indicates that Singapore employers maintain a cautious hiring expectation for Q4 2025, with a Net Employment Outlook of 20%, reflecting a 17% decrease from the previous quarter and a 31% decrease year-on-year [1] - Among the 524 surveyed employers, 37% expect to increase headcount, 17% anticipate reductions, and 45% plan to maintain current staffing levels, with 1% uncertain [1] Group 2 - The transportation, logistics, and automotive sectors show the strongest hiring demand with a Net Employment Outlook of 48%, while the financial and real estate sectors exhibit the weakest hiring sentiment at only 10% [2] - Economic uncertainty has led to a more conservative expansion attitude among employers in the financial sector, reflecting a broader trend of cautious hiring across various industries [2] Group 3 - The primary driver for hiring growth in Q4 is attributed to business expansion, with 43% of employers citing growth and scale as the main reason for creating new positions [3] - Economic challenges are the leading reason for layoffs, with 41% of employers planning to reduce headcount due to economic uncertainty, followed by 31% citing restructuring or downsizing [3] Group 4 - Employers in Singapore face challenges in talent acquisition, with 50% indicating that attracting qualified candidates is their biggest hurdle, and 34% struggling to fill complex technical roles [4] - To retain talent, work-life balance is viewed as the most effective strategy by 56% of employers, followed by employee recognition at 40% and flexible work arrangements at 35% [4] - Singapore's Net Employment Outlook is slightly below the global average of 23%, with the UAE and India showing the strongest hiring intentions at 45% and 40%, respectively [4]

证券研究报告 | 2025年12月06日 宏观经济周报 解锁服务业增长的三把钥匙 中国服务业正面临"需求与收入"的经典循环困境：提振服务业是为了增加 居民就业和收入，而服务需求增长又被认为依赖后者提升，因此形成"鸡生 蛋、蛋生鸡"的悖论。然而，当前存在三条不依赖当期居民收入增长的需求 线索，正率先打破这一循环困境。 一是海外"输入型需求"。国际往来恢复带动中国在运输、旅游、信息、研 发等服务出口增长，这部分由外部购买力驱动的需求，直接创造了国内就业 与产出。 二是国内"时间稀缺"压抑的潜在需求。我国人均 GDP 已超 1.3 万美元，非 常接近高收入国家的门槛，但服务业占比却仍低于中低收入国家的水平，主 因并非支付能力不足，而是居民"无暇消费"。一旦通过制度优化释放闲暇， 文旅、健康等体验式需求将显著释放。 三是产业升级伴生的"创新需求"。发展新质生产力推动政府和企业在研发、 数字服务、专业咨询等无形资本上投入大增，这类生产性服务需求源于政府 和企业的投资与创新活动，同样不依赖于当期居民收入水平。 这"三轮驱动"能率先创造就业，尤其是青年与转岗岗位，进而增强收入预 期与消费信心，逐步激活更广泛服务消费，形成" ...

天眼查App显示，近日，普洱新漉咖啡有限公司成立，法定代表人为李祥，注册资本60万人民币，经营 范围为许可项目：道路货物运输（不含危险货物）。（依法须经批准的项目，经相关部门批准后方可开 展经营活动，具体经营项目以相关部门批准文件或许可证件为准）一般项目：食用农产品初加工；初级 农产品收购；农产品的生产、销售、加工、运输、贮藏及其他相关服务；食用农产品零售；供应链管理 服务；咖啡豆种植；坚果种植；石斛种植；茶叶种植；运输货物打包服务；食品互联网销售（仅销售预 包装食品）；食品进出口；农副产品销售。（除依法须经批准的项目外，凭营业执照依法自主开展经营 活动）。 ...

截至2025年12月4日 11点06分，中证港股通央企红利指数（931233）下跌0.12%。成分股方面涨跌互 现，中国海外宏洋集团（00081）领涨1.28%，中国人民保险集团（01339）上涨1.05%，招商银行 （03968）上涨0.97%；中国有色矿业（01258）领跌2.15%，中化化肥（00297）下跌1.86%，中国外运 （00598）下跌1.84%。港股央企红利ETF（513910）上涨0.12%，最新报价1.66元。 消息面上，国务院国资委召开中央企业"十五五"规划编制专题座谈会，强调要深入学习贯彻中央精神， 科学谋划央企未来五年发展。国资委相关负责人指出，要把握做强做优做大国有资本的目标，着力推动 央企不断增强核心功能、提升核心竞争力，实现质的有效提升和量的合理增长，加快现代化产业体系和 更多世界一流企业。 市场分析认为，随着国资委明确"十五五"期间以"做强做优做大国有资本"为核心目标，推动央企提升核 心竞争力并加快产业升级，央企的盈利稳健性与分红能力有望获得系统性增强。这一战略定调为相关企 业奠定了长期增长基础。目前，港股央企普遍具有估值较低、股息率较高的特点，在央企业绩改善与强 化股东 ...

Group 1 - The US manufacturing index decreased from 48.7 in October to 48.2 in November, remaining below the neutral level of 50 for nine consecutive months, indicating ongoing challenges for US factories due to import tariffs [1] - Only four industries experienced growth in November, including computers, electronics, and machinery, while several sectors such as wood, transportation, and apparel faced contraction [1] - Transportation equipment manufacturers are implementing structural adjustments in response to the tariff environment, including layoffs and shifting production overseas [1] Group 2 - Chemical product manufacturers report that tariffs and economic uncertainty continue to suppress demand for construction materials like adhesives [1] - Electrical equipment, appliance, and component manufacturers express concerns over a "chaotic trade environment" [1] - Other producers indicate that rising tariffs, government shutdowns, and increasing global uncertainty contribute to a persistently weak business environment [1] Group 3 - The US Supreme Court's recent questioning of the legality of Trump's tariffs has intensified speculation about potential overturning of these tariffs, which could lead to greater chaos [1] - Market expectations suggest that if the Supreme Court issues an unfavorable ruling, Trump may pivot to alternative trade strategies [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected price increase of over 15% in the next 6-12 months [6][13]. Core Insights - The company has introduced a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel designed for the transportation of wind power equipment, which is expected to create new demand due to its cost advantages over conventional vessels [4]. - The domestic wind turbine manufacturers are accelerating their overseas orders, with a significant increase in new contracts signed, suggesting a robust growth trajectory for the company's specialized maritime services [5]. - The forecasted net profits for the company are projected to be 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a strong growth outlook [6]. Summary by Sections Event - On December 2, the company participated in the China International Maritime Exhibition and launched a globally innovative multi-purpose vessel [3]. Operational Analysis - The newly launched vessel is optimized for transporting wind power equipment, including main engines, towers, transition pieces, and blades, and can also serve heavy industrial and offshore engineering sectors. It features two 800-ton cranes and a cargo area of approximately 7,000 square meters, meeting the requirements for the longest offshore wind turbine blades [4]. Market Outlook - The acceleration of domestic wind turbine exports is evident, with new overseas orders reaching 28 GW in 2024 and further increasing by 68% in the first eleven months of 2025. This trend is expected to continue, enhancing the company's growth potential in specialized maritime services [5]. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 1.21 billion, 1.66 billion, and 2.63 billion RMB respectively. The current stock price corresponds to a PE ratio of 27, 19, and 12 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [6][10].

2025年12月3日，A股三大指数集体下跌，交通运输ETF（159666）逆势上涨0.5%。资金面上，交通运 输ETF（159666）持续获资金布局，连续五日净流入超1000万元。 消息面，日前，文化和旅游部、中国民航局联合印发《文化和旅游与民航业融合发展行动方案》。《行 动方案》提出，到2027年，旅游出行服务水平显著提高，国际国内旅游航线覆盖更广，融合产品和场景 更加丰富多元，文化和旅游与民航业实现更深层次、更大范围、更高质量的融合，形成需求牵引供给、 供给创造需求的良性发展格局。 中信证券表示，"民航+文旅"视为2026年消费复苏的核心主线。其认为政策以消费券补贴和产品创新双 轮驱动，既能直接拉动民航出行与文旅消费需求，又能推动航司、景区、酒店等主体的产品创新与协 同。短期建议重点关注消费券催化下的景区和航空股；中长期则看好连锁酒店的规模扩张潜力，以及低 空经济领域具备稀缺资源的龙头企业，这类企业将持续受益于新业态拓展带来的增量空间。 （文章来源：每日经济新闻） 交通运输ETF（159666）及其联接基金（019405/019404）是全市场唯一跟踪中证全指运输指数的ETF基 金，其涵盖了A股市场包括物 ...