1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Geopolitical risks are escalating globally, leading to an upward trend in resource prices. Precious metals, copper, and other commodities are showing strong performance. The market is influenced by factors such as geopolitical conflicts, Fed's monetary policy expectations, and supply - demand fundamentals [2][3][5]. - In the short term, most commodity prices are expected to maintain a volatile or upward - trending pattern, but there are also risks such as capital outflows and weak demand in some sectors [6][10][15]. 3. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - Geopolitical risks from events like the US' strategic intervention in Greenland and the situation in Venezuela are driving up precious metal prices. Silver has set a new high. The long - term outlook for precious metals remains positive, but short - term price fluctuations will be intense [3][4]. - On Tuesday, COMEX gold futures rose 1.22% to $4505.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures rose 5.95% to $81.22 per ounce [3]. Copper - Dovish voices suggest that the Fed may cut interest rates by more than 100 basis points this year. The copper price is oscillating upwards. Although the spot market trading is sluggish and inventories are rising, supply disruptions from strikes in Chile and a tight supply - demand balance are expected to keep the copper price at a high level in the short term [5][6]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai copper main contract continued its strong upward trend, and LME copper broke through $13,000 without showing signs of adjustment [5]. Aluminum - The aluminum price is strongly influenced by short - term capital and sentiment. Although the supply - demand fundamentals show an increase in supply and a decrease in demand, in the context of the Fed's expected interest - rate cut cycle, capital continues to flow into the aluminum market, leading to a strong performance of the aluminum price [7]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,395 yuan/ton, up 3.26% [7]. Alumina - The alumina spot price is still weak, but due to the expectation of maintenance and production cuts by loss - making enterprises after the execution of long - term contracts in January and the overall strength of the non - ferrous sector, the alumina futures have rebounded. However, the rebound may limit the scale of production cuts [8]. - On Tuesday, the alumina futures main contract closed at 2,818 yuan/ton, up 0.9% [8]. Cast Aluminum - The continuous sharp rise in copper and aluminum prices has pushed up the cost of recycled aluminum raw materials, driving up the spot price of cast aluminum. Although the demand is weak, the inflow of capital has supported the cast aluminum price to be strong recently [9]. - On Tuesday, the cast aluminum alloy futures main contract closed at 22,995 yuan/ton, up 2.29% [9]. Zinc - Driven by capital, the zinc price has continued to rise. The geopolitical conflict has brought resource premiums, and the price hitting a nearly 10 - year high in China has boosted capital's enthusiasm for long - positions. However, the fundamentals are mixed, and chasing the rise requires caution [10]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc main contract 2602 continued its strong intraday trend and oscillated at a high level at night [10]. Lead - With the market maintaining a bullish atmosphere, the rise of LME lead has driven up the Shanghai lead price. The supply - demand is weak on both sides, but the low inventory provides support. The lead price is expected to continue to rise slowly in the short term [11]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead main contract 2602 moved up during the day and continued to rise at night [11]. Tin - In the context of resource risk premiums, capital enthusiasm has pushed the tin price back to a strong level. Although the raw material supply disturbances have eased, the seasonal decline in Indonesian refined tin exports and the reduction in domestic supply in January support the price. However, the downstream demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory changes [13]. - On Tuesday, the Shanghai tin main contract 2602 rose strongly during the day and continued to rise at night [12]. Industrial Silicon - The market sentiment is high, and the industrial silicon price has rebounded. The supply is marginally shrinking, and the demand is also weak. The overall inventory has slightly decreased, and the futures price is expected to maintain a strong oscillation in the short term [14][15]. - On Tuesday, the industrial silicon main contract rebounded slightly [14]. Steel (Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil) - The supply - demand of steel is in a weak balance. The off - season demand suppresses the price, while inventory reduction provides support. With positive macro - expectations, the steel price is expected to oscillate and rise in the short term [16]. - On Tuesday, steel futures rose. The trading volume of steel in the spot market was 96,000 tons [16]. Iron Ore - The iron ore price is supported by the expectation of pre - holiday restocking. Although the supply is abundant due to the year - end shipping rush by overseas miners, the change in the South American situation has worried the market about supply, leading to an oscillating rebound of the futures price [17][18]. - On Tuesday, iron ore futures rose. The trading volume of iron ore in the spot market was 1.33 million tons [17]. Coking Coal and Coke (Double - Coking) - The fundamentals lack strong drivers. The decline in raw coal prices has narrowed, supporting the coke price, and the downstream procurement demand has recovered. After the holiday, coal mine production has increased slightly. The steel mills' procurement is still cautious, and the double - coking price is expected to oscillate and rebound [19]. - On Tuesday, double - coking futures rebounded [19]. Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - South American weather is favorable for crop growth, maintaining the expectation of a bumper harvest. The US soybean export sales progress is slow, and the external market is under pressure. The trading volume of soybean meal has increased, and it is expected to oscillate in the short term [20][21]. - On Tuesday, the soybean meal 05 contract rose 1.09% to 2,776 yuan/ton, and the rapeseed meal 05 contract rose 1.06% to 2,390 yuan/ton [20]. Palm Oil - The palm oil price is waiting for the guidance of the MPOB report. The production in Malaysia in early January decreased significantly, while exports improved moderately. With positive macro - sentiment and weak oil prices, the palm oil price is expected to oscillate within a range in the short term [22][23]. - On Tuesday, the palm oil 05 contract rose 0.09% to 8,500 yuan/ton [22].

Core Viewpoint - Global inflation remains persistent, prompting investors to seek anti-inflation assets, with a notable shift towards three lesser-known asset classes beyond traditional gold investments [1] Group 1: Inflation-Linked Bonds - Inflation-linked bonds are highlighted as a "hidden shield" against inflation, offering returns that are directly tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI), thus providing higher interest as inflation rises [3] - The issuance of domestic inflation-linked bonds is projected to increase by 60% in 2025, with an institutional subscription rate reaching 95%, indicating strong demand [3] - These bonds allow ordinary investors to participate with a low entry threshold of 10 yuan, with annual returns expected to outperform CPI by 1-2 percentage points [3][4] Group 2: Infrastructure Funds - Infrastructure funds, which invest in sectors like energy, transportation, and digital infrastructure, are seen as a "long-term ticket" due to their stable cash flow and ability to adjust pricing with inflation [5] - A report from UBS indicates that 35% of global billionaires are increasing their allocations to infrastructure assets, with Chinese clients particularly active, expecting stable returns of 5%-6% [5] - The scale of domestic infrastructure funds has surpassed one trillion yuan in 2025, with many products offering dividend rates above 4% and good liquidity for both long-term holding and immediate cash needs [5] Group 3: Strategic Minor Metals - Strategic minor metals, such as rare earths, cobalt, and lithium, are emerging as potential investment targets due to their critical role in new energy vehicles and renewable energy sectors, with a projected 25% increase in global demand by 2025 [6] - The supply of these metals is constrained, leading to rising prices, and institutions are quietly positioning themselves through related thematic funds to hedge against inflation while benefiting from industrial upgrades [6] - Ordinary investors are advised to consider funds focused on green energy demand for these minor metals, which, despite higher volatility, offer significant long-term return potential [6]

1月5日，在全球市场避险情绪骤然升温的背景下，金价在亚洲时段出现快速拉升。金丰来认为，突发性 的地缘事件往往会迅速改变资金风险偏好，而黄金作为传统避险资产，往往成为资金率先配置的方向。 本轮上涨并非单一因素推动，而是多重不确定性集中释放的结果。 从价格结构看，金价在经历前期高位回落后的再度走强，显示市场对黄金的中长期信心依然稳固。金丰 来表示，2025年内金价累计大幅上涨后出现阶段性获利回吐属于正常现象，但在流动性预期宽松和避险 需求共振的环境下，黄金仍具备较强的修复能力。 事件层面，美国在委内瑞拉的军事行动明显冲击了市场风险承受能力。相关行动不仅引发国际社会关 注，也使能源供应前景面临新的不确定性。金丰来认为，能源市场与宏观通胀预期之间存在联动，一旦 不确定性放大，资金往往会通过增持黄金来对冲潜在波动。 从更宏观的角度看，黄金的支撑逻辑并未发生改变。利率下行预期、官方储备持续增加以及全球经济增 长动能不足，均构成对金价的中长期利好。金丰来表示，即便短期波动加剧，只要上述核心因素未被证 伪，黄金仍将维持偏强运行格局。 此外，其他金属品种的同步走高，也反映出整体大宗商品市场情绪偏暖。白银、铂金以及铜价的上涨， ...

Core Viewpoint - The market anticipates that the next interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve will be delayed until late April 2024, following the December rate cut, with a focus on employment data and inflation pressures [1][2]. Group 1: U.S. Economic Outlook - Inflation pressures are decreasing, and future focus will be on employment data due to the impact of government shutdowns on economic data quality [2]. - The real estate market is weak, and the employment market is relatively sluggish, indicating that inflation pressures will remain manageable in the near term [2]. Group 2: Domestic Market Focus - The two main themes that could change market expectations in 2026 are the release of the 14th Five-Year Plan during the Two Sessions and the continuous improvement of the Producer Price Index (PPI) [3]. - The 14th Five-Year Plan will provide clearer growth expectations and market capacity, while PPI improvements will be crucial for corporate profitability and market sentiment [3]. Group 3: Hong Kong Stock Market - The market outlook for the first half of 2026 is positive, driven by a weaker U.S. dollar and improved domestic liquidity, creating a dual-driven market [4]. - AI remains a key focus for 2026, with expectations for accelerated domestic semiconductor hardware production and increased AI application deployment, particularly in the Hang Seng Technology and Internet sectors [4]. - The recovery of corporate profits in 2026 is supported by a trend against excessive competition, benefiting upstream metals and certain industrial companies [4]. Group 4: Non-Banking Sector - Non-banking sector performance has been significantly upgraded recently, with insurance and brokerage firms expected to benefit from market stabilization [5]. Group 5: Innovative Pharmaceuticals and Consumer Sector - The innovative pharmaceutical sector shows stable performance and is worth holding, with potential for recovery upon the release of new business development projects [6]. - In the consumer sector, certain areas like collectible toys have seen valuations drop to around 15 times earnings for 2026, and ongoing government consumer subsidies are expected to support recovery [6].

Core Viewpoint - In 2026, the global debt issue will present three main solutions: real growth exceeding real interest rates (growth-based debt reduction), inflation exceeding expectations (inflation-based debt reduction), and fiscal tightening (fiscal-based debt reduction). Both AI and gold are expected to benefit from these paths, forming a dual mainline logic for asset performance [1] Group 1: A-Share Market Outlook - The A-share market is expected to maintain a "slow bull" pattern in 2026, driven by a profound change in corporate profit structures despite ongoing weakness in real estate, infrastructure, consumption, social financing, and PPI [1] - The net asset return on equity (ROE) for non-financial enterprises in the A-share market has stabilized over several quarters, with profits from eight advanced manufacturing industries now accounting for 38% of total profits [1] - Companies with overseas operations have seen their overseas revenue share increase to 20%, with overseas market gross margins exceeding domestic margins by 5 percentage points, which may drive a rebound in overall A-share ROE after stabilization [1] Group 2: Investment Directions - Investment focus should be on industries with constrained supply and clear prosperity trends, such as the AI industry chain, which has strong capital expenditure demand and limited short-term supply release [1] - Other sectors to consider include energy storage and metals, which have undergone capacity clearing [1] - Tactically, it is recommended to utilize market adjustments to position for the spring rally, prioritizing the aforementioned high-prosperity sectors [1]

Summary of Key Points from Conference Call Industry Overview - **A-Share Market Performance**: The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 18.41% in 2025, indicating a positive market outlook for 2026, driven by expectations of U.S. interest rate cuts and increased liquidity in overseas markets [2][3]. - **Chemical Industry**: The chemical sector showed strong performance in 2025, with expectations of continued growth into 2026, as supply pressures ease and some products see price increases [10][11]. - **Aviation Industry**: The aviation sector experienced a 13% increase in passenger traffic during the New Year period, with ticket prices rising over 10% year-on-year. Future growth is anticipated due to low supply growth and recovering demand [6]. - **Oil Shipping Industry**: The oil shipping sector is at a four-year high, driven by increased oil production. The next five years are expected to see continued demand growth [8][9]. Core Insights and Arguments - **Market Trends**: The A-share market is expected to benefit from several factors, including anticipated U.S. interest rate cuts, a stable and appreciating RMB, and supportive policies for investment and real estate [2][3]. - **Price Increase Logic**: Price increases are emerging in sectors like chemicals and new energy materials due to improved demand and constrained supply. The TMT supply chain is also experiencing price hikes due to demand expansion [4]. - **Investment Recommendations**: - **Technology Growth**: Positive outlook for technology sectors, including internet, electronics, and power equipment [5]. - **Non-Banking Financials**: Favorable conditions for insurance and brokerage firms [5]. - **Cyclical Sectors**: Sectors benefiting from domestic demand and stable real estate policies, such as tourism and consumer goods, are recommended [5]. Additional Important Insights - **Industrial Metals**: The industrial metals market is optimistic for 2026, with supply disruptions and increased demand from AI and traditional sectors driving growth [15]. - **Chemical Sector Recommendations**: Key companies to watch include Hualu Hengsheng in coal chemicals and leading firms in the refrigerant and new materials sectors [11]. - **Coal Market Outlook**: The coal market is expected to stabilize, with prices projected to rise in the latter half of 2026 after a period of decline [22][24]. - **Real Estate Sector**: The real estate sector is receiving renewed attention from policymakers, indicating potential recovery and investment opportunities in leading companies [25]. This summary encapsulates the key points discussed in the conference call, highlighting the performance and outlook of various industries, along with strategic investment recommendations.

本周，权益市场仍处于高位，但较上周的多热点共振，有所 变化，主线行情明确下，热点板块结构性上涨，部分资金集 聚于部分短期主线，而另一部分资金选择在年前获利了结， 持币过节，造成了指数的短期震荡，但整体幅度偏窄，趋势 稳定。从市场角度来看，虽在节前，避险情绪有所提升，但 上证指数多个交易日连阳的情绪带动依然强劲，较大程度上 提振了场内投资者短期信心。而从消息面角度来看，人民币 兑美元汇率持续升值，一举破 7，国内市场对海外资金吸引 力度持续增强，且临近新年，即将迈入"十五五"开局之年， 新一轮政策预期相对乐观，对于市场短期持续处于较高位置 有了相对强劲的支撑。而债市则依然受益于资金宽松环境， 虽吸金能力较权益市场偏弱，但下行空间相对有限。商品市 场在上周经历了贵金属的大举上攻后，本周迎来平静期，黄 金白银的大幅回落成为商品市场短期上攻势头终止的主要 原因。。 本周 A 股观点：向上动能仍存，新年或有新气象。 证券研究报告｜资产配置跟踪周报 2026 年 1 月 4 日 向上动能仍存，新年或有新气象 【20251229-20260104】 核心观点 大类资产总览：股债商窄幅震荡趋稳。 本周 A 股高位窄幅震荡，上 ...

去年伦敦金属交易所（LME）铜价创下纪录高位，上涨了 42%，因美元走软、人工智能和可再生能源 需求激增，以及矿山供应中断推动了涨势。美元在 2026 年伊始走势疲软，周五开局表现不力，在 2025 年美元兑大多数货币都走势挣扎，而日元则稳定在 10 个月低点附近，交易商等待本月公布的经济数据 来评估利率走向。 美元走软令以美元计价的大宗商品对其他货币持有者来说变得更加便宜。 在其他金属中，锌上涨 0.1%至每吨 3，121.5 美元，铅上涨 0.1%至每吨 2，012 美元，锡上涨 0.7%至每 吨 40，825 美元，镍 上涨 1.2%至每吨 16，850 美元。 责任编辑：王永生 在其他金属中，锌上涨 0.1%至每吨 3，121.5 美元，铅上涨 0.1%至每吨 2，012 美元，锡上涨 0.7%至每 吨 40，825 美元，镍 上涨 1.2%至每吨 16，850 美元。 伦敦期铜周五上涨近 1%，在经历了 2025 年铜价飙升逾 40%至纪录高位的辉煌一役后，新年伊始迎来 开门红，而铝价则触及 2022 年 5 月以来的最高水平。 责任编辑：王永生 伦敦金属交易所（LME）三个月期铜上涨 0.9%，至 ...

波黑《新闻报》12月31日报道。波黑部长会议副主席兼对外贸易和经济关系部长斯塔沙.科沙拉茨表 示，在周一举行的波黑部长会议上，通过了支持波黑经济进一步发展的重要决议。 部长会议决定，批准总额为90万马克的国内外展会活动经费。其中60万马克将用于支持国内展会活动， 30万马克用于支持波黑在国外的展会活动。科沙拉茨表示，该决定为塞族共和国政府和波黑联邦政府的 发展政策做出了贡献，并支持我们的企业家努力在国内外更好地展示波黑的产品。 部长会议还通过了《关于2026年矿物肥料进口临时关税配额的决定》。科沙拉茨表示，这是一项干预措 施，旨在解决波黑因生产矿物肥料所需的能源价格上涨而导致的肥料供应短缺和价格过高问题。(驻波 黑使馆经商处) 科沙拉茨表示，会议通过了《关于在2026年12月31日前对进口特定商品暂时暂停和暂时降低关税税率的 决定》。该决定涵盖了国内生产所需、但无法在国内市场足额获取的原材料和物资，涉及纺织、皮革、 鞋类、化工、金属、电子、食品、印刷、汽车工业以及卫生产品制造等多个领域。 ...

朋友们，我是帮主郑重。就在全球为新年钟声欢呼时，全球大宗商品市场，却用一份极度"分裂"的成绩 单，为2025年画上了句号。如果你只看一个品种，你会对市场产生完全相反的判断，这恰恰是当下全球 经济复杂性的真实镜像。 我们来看看这幅"分裂"的图景。 所以，我的核心观点是：2025年大宗商品市场，完美演绎了一场"宏观预期"与"微观现实"、"长期叙 事"与"短期流动性"的激烈拉锯战。 铜，交易的是未来的绿色梦想；油，困在当下的过剩泥潭；而黄 金，则在避险的"神坛"与投机的"赌桌"之间反复横跳。它们走势的背离，正是全球经济与政策处在复杂 十字路口的直观体现。 对于已经到来的2026年，作为中长线投资者，我们的策略也需要因"品"而异，更加精细化： 对于铜，长期的电气化故事依然牢固，但短期内42%的涨幅已经透支了大量乐观预期。策略上，绝不在 狂热时追高，而应耐心等待市场情绪降温后的回调机会，再考虑分批布局，将其作为对抗通胀和能源转 型的长期配置选项。 一边，是"铜博士"的史诗级狂飙。 伦敦期铜在2025年全年暴涨42%，创下了自2009年金融危机复苏以来 最大的年度涨幅。这绝不是简单的炒作，其背后是电气化时代对铜这种"工业 ...