Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Through macro - fundamental and technical analysis, the report predicts the trend of various futures contracts on August 11, 2025, including股指期货, 国债期货, 黄金期货, and other commodity futures [2][3]. - It also presents the expected trend of these futures contracts in August 2025, along with their resistance and support levels [26][52]. - The report includes macro - news and trading tips, such as international phone calls between leaders, economic data releases, and policy announcements [8]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Overview - In the first half of 2025, the whole futures market added 410,000 new customers, a 2.5% year - on - year increase. By the end of June, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a 12% year - on - year increase. The number of institutional customers increased by 43% compared to the same period in 2022, and the number of overseas customers increased by 63%, with traders from 39 countries or regions participating [14]. 3.2 Macroeconomic News - China - Russia and international relations: President Xi Jinping had a phone call with Russian President Putin, expressing support for the improvement of Russia - US relations and the political settlement of the Ukraine crisis. Regarding the possible secondary tariffs on China by the US, the Chinese Foreign Ministry stated that China's normal economic and trade cooperation with Russia is legitimate [8]. - Domestic economic policies: The Supreme People's Court issued guidelines to support the private economy, and the National Immigration Administration reported a significant increase in the number of foreign entries and exits in the first half of the year [8][11]. - Economic data: In July, CPI环比 increased by 0.4% from a 0.1% decline last month, and was flat year - on - year. Core CPI increased by 0.8% year - on - year. PPI环比 decreased by 0.2%, with the decline narrowing by 0.2 percentage points, and decreased by 3.6% year - on - year [9]. 3.3 Futures Market Performance on August 8 - Domestic commodity futures night session: Chemicals generally rose, non - metallic building materials were mixed, black series were mixed, agricultural products were mixed, and energy products generally fell [15]. - International futures market: International precious metals generally rose, international oil prices continued to fall due to OPEC's production increase plan, and London base metals were mixed [17][18]. 3.4 Futures Market Forecast - **Stock Index Futures**: On August 11, 2025, it is expected to be strongly oscillating. In August 2025, the IF, IH, IC, and IM contracts are also expected to be strongly oscillating or oscillating strongly [26]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: On August 11, the ten - year T2509 is expected to be strongly oscillating, and the thirty - year TL2509 is expected to be oscillating and consolidating [47][51]. - **Precious Metal Futures**: On August 11, gold AU2510 and silver AG2510 are expected to be oscillating and consolidating. In August 2025, gold and silver continuous contracts are expected to be strongly and widely oscillating [52][58]. - **Base Metal Futures**: On August 11, copper CU2509 and zinc ZN2509 are expected to be strongly oscillating, while aluminum AL2509 and alumina AO2509 are expected to be weakly oscillating [63][69]. - **Industrial and Energy Futures**: On August 11, industrial silicon SI2511, polysilicon PS2511, lithium carbonate LC2511, iron ore I2601, crude oil SC2509, PTA TA509, caustic soda SH509, and natural rubber RU2601 are expected to be strongly oscillating. Coke JM2601, hot - rolled coil HC2510, and rebar RB2510 are expected to be weakly oscillating, and glass FG509, soda ash SA601, and PVC V2509 are expected to be widely oscillating [80][98].

地址：北京市朝阳区朝阳门外大街甲6号万通中心D座20层（100020） 总机：010-8535 6666 资讯早间报 制作日期： 2025/08/11 隔夜夜盘市场走势 1. 国际贵金属期货普遍收涨，COMEX 黄金期货涨 0.13%报 3458.2 美元/盎司， 本周累计上涨 1.72%，COMEX 白银期货涨 0.56%报 38.51 美元/盎司，本周累计上 涨 4.28%。特朗普提名激进派进入美联储理事会引发政策担忧，同时美国实施 新关税政策，加剧市场不确定性，推升避险需求。 2. 欧佩克增产打压油价，美油主力合约收跌 0.83%，报 63.35 美元/桶，周跌 5.91%；布伦特原油主力合约跌 0.17%，报 66.32 美元/桶，周跌 4.81%。国际油 价延续跌势，主要受到欧佩克+增产计划影响，市场担忧供应过剩。 3. 伦敦基本金属涨跌参半，LME 期铜涨 0.86%，本周累计上涨 1.43%；LME 期锌 涨 0.75%，本周累计上涨 3.92%；LME 期铝涨 0.19%，本周累计上涨 1.91%；LME 期镍跌 0.02%，本周累计上涨 0.85%；LME 期铅跌 0.3%，本周累计上涨 1 ...

Group 1: Commodity Market Overview - Domestic commodity futures experienced mixed performance from August 4 to August 8, with coking coal and lithium carbonate leading gains, while fuel oil and crude oil saw declines [1] - Coking coal prices surged by 12.31%, breaking through the fluctuation range since June, driven by supply constraints and strong demand from steel mills [1][2] Group 2: Coking Coal Supply and Demand - Weekly coking coal production reached 5.2 million tons, a slight increase of 1.2% week-on-week but down 5% year-on-year due to ongoing production checks in Shanxi and Shaanxi [2] - Total coking coal inventory stood at 27.98 million tons, down 0.3% week-on-week, indicating a slight decrease in upstream stock [2] Group 3: Lithium Carbonate Market Dynamics - Lithium carbonate prices rose by 11.15% this week, influenced by supply concerns related to the Yichun lithium mine and ongoing market speculation [4][5] - The current market for lithium carbonate is characterized by a slight increase in supply and gradually recovering demand, with inventory levels exceeding 140,000 tons [5][6] Group 4: Economic Indicators - July CPI showed a month-on-month increase of 0.4%, while PPI decreased by 0.2%, indicating a narrowing decline [8] - The core CPI rose by 0.8% year-on-year, marking the highest level since March 2024, driven by price stability in household appliances and clothing [8] Group 5: Regulatory Developments - New regulations for algorithmic trading in the futures market will take effect on October 9, 2025, aimed at enhancing market order and fairness [9][10] - The regulations require a reporting system for algorithmic trading, with a six-month transition period for compliance [10]

Group 1 - The Algerian oil and gas industry, a key pillar of the economy, experienced a year-on-year production decline of 3.3% in the first quarter of 2025 [1] - The production of liquefied natural gas, a critical product for Algeria's oil and gas sector, saw a significant drop of 17.5% in the first quarter of 2025 [1] - The refined oil production, after showing growth in the first and third quarters of 2024, began to decline by 2.2% in the first quarter of 2025 [1] Group 2 - Other industrial sectors also faced challenges, with mining and quarrying production decreasing by 3.7% in the first quarter of 2025 after a growth trend in 2023 and 2024 [1] - The steel, metals, machinery, electrical, and electronics industries experienced a dramatic overall decline of 41.7% in the first quarter of 2025, following a 25.1% increase in the fourth quarter of 2024 [1] - The chemical, food, and textile industries reported declines of 11.3%, 10.2%, and 4.9% respectively [1] Group 3 - Despite the overall industrial production downturn, the building materials sector showed a slight growth of 1.5% [1] - The wood and leather industries experienced significant growth, with increases of 19.6% and 13.1% respectively [1]

Group 1: Historical Insights - The previous supply-side reform period (2016-2017) saw significant pressure on consumption profits due to insufficient transmission of cost pressures from upstream resources and raw materials, leading to a general decline in profit growth across the consumption sector [1][12][21] - During the 2016-2017 period, despite strong demand-side policies, the ability of the consumption sector to pass on cost increases was limited, resulting in a divergence between revenue and profit growth [1][12][17] - Consumer confidence index rose from 103.7 in December 2015 to 122.6 in December 2017, indicating a strong demand environment during the previous reform [12][17] Group 2: Current "Anti-Internal Competition" Insights - The current "anti-internal competition" policy is expected to impose more stringent constraints on supply, particularly in sectors like automotive and express delivery, which may stabilize prices more quickly compared to the previous reform period [1][21] - The consumption sector is facing a more severe demand-side challenge now, with consumer confidence at low levels and growth relying more on "value-for-money" rather than brand premium pricing [1][21] - In July, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 1.826 million units, a year-on-year increase of 6.3%, but the growth rate significantly slowed from June's 13.3% [1][21] Group 3: Sector-Specific Observations - In the energy and resources sector, coal demand is expected to rise during peak seasons, with July's domestic raw coal production at 42.107 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.9% [22][23] - The real estate sector experienced a significant decline in transaction volume, with July's average daily transaction area for commercial housing in 30 major cities down 32.3% month-on-month and 18.6% year-on-year [35][37] - The manufacturing sector showed resilience, with strong performance in machinery and equipment exports, and heavy truck sales performing well [5][10]

Market Overview - The Hong Kong stock market experienced a decline of 0.89%, attributed to internal structural issues despite positive market sentiment [1] - Concerns about "stagflation" in the US economy were highlighted, with initial jobless claims rising to 226,000, exceeding economists' expectations of 221,000 [1] - The US added 73,000 jobs in July, below the expected 100,000, while the personal consumption expenditure inflation rate rose to 2.6% year-on-year in June, higher than the anticipated 2.5% [1] Company Performance - Crocs projected a revenue decline of 9% to 11% for Q3, leading to a nearly 30% drop in its stock price, marking its lowest point in three years [1] - Semiconductor companies like SMIC and Hua Hong Semiconductor reported better-than-expected Q2 results, with SMIC's Q3 revenue guidance indicating a 5-7% increase and Hua Hong's a 11.3% increase [2] - AI application company Mingyuan Cloud turned a profit of 12.09 million to 15.41 million RMB, recovering from a loss of 115.37 million RMB last year, driven by product optimization and AI technology [3] Sector Insights - The pharmaceutical sector showed mixed results, with companies like Rongchang Bio and Junshi Biosciences seeing stock increases of over 6%, while Hutchison China MediTech's stock fell nearly 16% despite a significant profit increase due to asset sales [3] - The real estate sector in Hong Kong faced caution, with Wharf Holdings expressing a pessimistic outlook on retail rental prospects, resulting in an 8% stock drop [4] - Gold stocks remained strong, with companies like Zhaojin Mining and Shandong Gold benefiting from a weaker dollar [4] Infrastructure Developments - The establishment of the Xinjiang section of the New Tibet Railway, with a total investment of up to 350 billion RMB, is expected to boost related sectors, leading to stock increases in construction companies [4] - The MSCI announced the addition of 14 new stocks to its China index, including companies like 3SBio and Meituan, indicating potential investment opportunities [6] Emerging Technologies - The low Earth orbit satellite launch pace is accelerating, with multiple successful launches planned for the second half of the year, enhancing China's capabilities in satellite communications [7] - Companies like Interstellar Aerospace Technology are developing AI application satellites and aim to capture a significant market share in optical remote sensing satellites by 2028 [8] Individual Company Strategies - Smoore International is focusing on business transformation, with expectations of improved performance in HNB products following successful launches in Japan [9] - The company is diversifying into aerosol technology for beauty and medical applications, positioning 2025 as a critical year for growth [10]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For domestic assets, there are mainly structural opportunities; in the second half of the year, the policy - driven logic will be strengthened, and the probability of incremental policy implementation is higher in the fourth quarter. Overseas, concerns about the decline in US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts in the second half of the year, which is beneficial to gold. In the long - term, the weak US dollar pattern continues, and non - US dollar assets should be watched while being vigilant against volatility jumps [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Highlights - **Overseas Macro**: In the early part of the week, the market's bets on Fed rate cuts decreased due to better - than - expected Q2 GDP, tariff easing, hawkish signals from the Fed's July meeting, and an increase in June PCE. However, the non - farm payrolls in July were below expectations, with significant downward revisions in May and June, and a rise in the unemployment rate under the backdrop of a three - month decline in the labor participation rate, increasing concerns about US economic downturn and Fed rate cuts. Attention should be paid to US inflation data on August 12, Fed Chair Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting from August 21 - 23, August non - farm payrolls, and the selection of the Bureau of Labor Statistics director and Fed leadership changes [5]. - **Domestic Macro**: Against the backdrop of stable and progressive domestic economic operation in the first half of the year, the overall tone of the Politburo meeting in July was to improve the quality and speed of using existing policies, with relatively limited incremental policies. The comprehensive PMI in July was still above the critical point. The progress of negotiations between the US and economies such as China and Mexico should be monitored [5]. - **Asset Views**: For major asset classes, domestic assets present mainly structural opportunities. Overseas, concerns about US employment and economic slowdown are rising, increasing the expectation of Fed rate cuts, which is favorable for gold. In the long run, the weak US dollar pattern persists, and non - US dollar assets should be focused on while being cautious of volatility jumps [5]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Financial - **Stock Index Futures**: After events are settled, the crowding of funds is released. With insufficient incremental funds, the short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. - **Stock Index Options**: The collar strategy strengthens the volatility structure. With upward - trending volatility, the short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Treasury Bond Futures**: The market continues to digest the information from the Politburo meeting. Concerns include unexpected tariffs, unexpected supply, and unexpected monetary easing. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.2 Precious Metals - **Gold/Silver**: As the US fundamentals weaken and the market returns to the logic of restarting the rate - cut cycle, precious metals are oscillating strongly. Concerns include Trump's tariff policy and the Fed's monetary policy. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [6]. 3.2.3 Shipping - **Container Shipping to Europe**: Attention should be paid to the game between the peak - season expectation and the implementation of price increases. Concerns include tariff policies and shipping companies' pricing strategies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.4 Black Building Materials - **Steel**: With disruptions in coking coal supply, the futures price shows a strong performance. Concerns include the progress of special bond issuance, steel exports, and molten iron production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Iron Ore**: With a healthy fundamental situation, the price is oscillating. Concerns include overseas mine production and shipment, domestic molten iron production, weather conditions, port ore inventory changes, and policy dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coke**: The fundamentals have not changed significantly, and there is no expectation of price increases in the near future. Concerns include steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply disruptions continue, and the futures price has risen. Concerns include steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Silicon Ferroalloy**: Market sentiment has improved, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include raw material costs and steel procurement. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Manganese Ferroalloy**: The sentiment in the black chain is positive, and the futures price is strongly oscillatory. Concerns include cost prices and foreign quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Glass**: Spot sales and production are weak, and prices in Hubei are continuously decreasing. Concerns include spot sales and production. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Soda Ash**: Some soda ash plants have resumed production, and freight rates have declined. Concerns include soda ash inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.2.5 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - **Copper**: The US non - farm payrolls data was below expectations, putting pressure on the copper price. Concerns include supply disruptions, unexpected domestic policies, less - than - expected dovishness from the Fed, less - than - expected recovery in domestic demand, and economic recession. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Alumina**: The number of warehouse receipts has increased, and the alumina price is under oscillatory pressure. Concerns include unexpected delays in ore resumption, unexpected over - recovery of electrolytic aluminum production, and extreme sector trends. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Aluminum**: Attention should be paid to the height of inventory accumulation, and the aluminum price is oscillating. Concerns include macro risks, supply disruptions, and less - than - expected demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Zinc**: With the rebound of black - series prices, the zinc price has slightly recovered. Concerns include macro - turning risks and unexpected increases in zinc ore supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Lead**: There is still support at the cost end, and the lead price is oscillating. Concerns include supply - side disruptions and a slowdown in battery exports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Nickel**: The LME nickel inventory has exceeded 210,000 tons, and the nickel price is weakly oscillatory. Concerns include unexpected macro and geopolitical changes, Indonesian policy risks, and less - than - expected supply release. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [6]. - **Stainless Steel**: The price of nickel iron has continued to rise, and the stainless - steel futures price has closed up. Concerns include Indonesian policy risks and unexpected demand growth. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Tin**: The market atmosphere has improved, and the tin price has slightly rebounded. Concerns include the expectation of Wa State's resumption of production and changes in demand improvement expectations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Market sentiment is fluctuating, and the silicon price is oscillating. Concerns include unexpected supply - side production cuts and unexpected photovoltaic installations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: The market direction is unclear, and the lithium carbonate price is oscillating. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, supply disruptions, and new technological breakthroughs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [6]. 3.3 Energy and Chemicals - **Crude Oil**: Geopolitical expectations are fluctuating, and attention should be paid to Russian oil risks. Concerns include OPEC+ production policies and Middle - East geopolitical situations. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **LPG**: Supply pressure continues, and the cost end dominates the rhythm. Concerns include the progress of crude oil and overseas propane costs. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Asphalt**: The pressure on the spot market has increased, and the high - valued asphalt price has finally declined. Concerns include unexpected demand. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **High - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: High - sulfur fuel oil is regarded as weak. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil**: The price of low - sulfur fuel oil futures has weakened following crude oil. Concerns include crude oil and natural gas prices. The short - term judgment is downward [8]. - **Methanol**: The rebound of the coal end has had some impact, and methanol is oscillating. Concerns include macro - energy and upstream - downstream device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Urea**: Domestic supply and demand cannot provide strong support, and export - driven effects are less than expected. Urea will oscillate in the short term. Concerns include export policy trends and the elimination of production capacity. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Typhoons have affected the arrival rhythm, and the expectation in August has shifted to inventory accumulation. Concerns include the inflection point of port inventory accumulation and device recovery. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PX**: Market sentiment has cooled, and the price has returned to fundamental pricing. Concerns include the maintenance rhythm of downstream PTA and seasonal changes in gasoline profits. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PTA**: Multiple devices have unexpectedly shut down briefly, and the processing fee is still under pressure. Concerns include the planned shutdown of mainstream devices and the intensity of polyester joint production cuts. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Short - Fiber**: The improvement in downstream demand is limited, and there is an expectation of continuous inventory accumulation for short - fiber. Concerns include the procurement rhythm and start - up of downstream yarn mills. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Bottle Chip**: The production cut scale in August will continue to exceed 20%, and the support below the processing fee has increased. Concerns include the future start - up of bottle chips. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Propylene**: It mainly follows market fluctuations and oscillates in the short term. Concerns include oil prices and domestic macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PP**: The support from oil and coal still shows differences, and PP is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Plastic**: There is a slight impact from the coal end, and plastic is oscillating. Concerns include oil prices and domestic and international macro factors. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Styrene**: The commodity sentiment has improved, and attention should be paid to the implementation of policy details. Concerns include oil prices, macro policies, and device dynamics. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **PVC**: It has returned to weak - reality pricing, and the futures price is oscillating downward. Concerns include expectations, costs, and supply. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Caustic Soda**: The pressure on the spot market is emerging, and caustic soda is running weakly. Concerns include market sentiment, start - up, and demand. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. 3.4 Agriculture - **Oils and Fats**: Yesterday, soybean oil was strong, and there is a strong expectation of a month - on - month increase in Malaysian palm oil production in July. Concerns include US soybean weather and Malaysian palm oil production and demand data. The short - term judgment is oscillatory upward [8]. - **Protein Meal**: During the peak season of aquaculture, rapeseed meal is stronger than soybean meal. Concerns include US soybean weather, domestic demand, macro factors, and Sino - US and Sino - Canadian trade disputes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Corn/Starch**: Market sentiment continues to be weak, and the futures price is oscillating at the bottom. Concerns include less - than - expected demand, macro factors, and weather. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Hogs**: The expectation of production cuts has caused fluctuations, and the futures price has rebounded. Concerns include breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Rubber**: Positive macro factors have driven up the rubber price. Concerns include production - area weather, raw material prices, and macro changes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Synthetic Rubber**: Tight raw material supply supports the futures price. Concerns include significant fluctuations in crude oil prices. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Pulp**: The weak trend of the futures price remains unchanged, and attention should be paid to reverse arbitrage during the decline. Concerns include macro - economic changes and fluctuations in US dollar - denominated quotes. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Cotton**: The impact of macro factors has weakened, and cotton price trading has returned to fundamentals. Concerns include demand and inventory. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Sugar**: The marginal supply pressure has increased, and the sugar price is under downward pressure. Concerns include imports. The short - term judgment is oscillatory [8]. - **Log**: The fundamentals have changed little, and it should be treated within a range. Concerns include shipment volume and dispatch volume. The short - term judgment is oscillatory downward [8].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The overall market is affected by various factors such as policies, economic data, and supply - demand relationships. Different sectors show different trends, with some expected to be bullish in the short - term, some to be bearish, and others to remain volatile [3][5][8]. - In the macro - financial sector, the policy supports the capital market, but short - term market fluctuations may increase. In the bond market, interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term but may fluctuate in the short - term [3][5]. - In the commodity market, most products are influenced by supply - demand fundamentals, cost factors, and market sentiment. Some products are facing supply pressure, while others are affected by demand weakness [8][10][22]. Summaries by Categories Macro - Financial Index Futures - News includes regulatory crackdown on capital market fraud, trading restrictions on some investors, and support for digital infrastructure and manufacturing financing [2]. - The basis ratios of different contracts of IF, IC, IM, and IH are provided. The market may be volatile in the short - term after previous rises but is still recommended to go long on dips [3]. Treasury Bonds - On Tuesday, TL, T, TF, and TS had different price changes. The EU postponed trade counter - measures, and China plans free preschool education. The central bank had a net回笼 of 2885 billion yuan. Interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term with short - term fluctuations [3][4][5]. Precious Metals - Shanghai gold and silver rose, while COMEX gold and silver fell. Weak US economic data and Trump's remarks on the Fed chair candidate led to a short - term rise in precious metals. It is recommended to buy on dips [6]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - LME copper prices fell. LME inventory increased, and domestic copper had different inventory and trading situations. Due to factors like supply and demand and tariffs, the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. Aluminum - Aluminum prices oscillated. Domestic and LME inventories changed, and the market sentiment was neutral. The upside of aluminum prices is restricted by factors such as the off - season and export pressure [9]. Zinc - Zinc prices rose. Zinc ore inventory increased, and production is expected to rise. With weakening support factors, the risk of price decline increases [10]. Lead - Lead prices rose slightly. Supply is relatively loose, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile [11][12]. Nickel - Nickel prices oscillated. Nickel ore supply recovery is slow, and in the context of weak demand, prices are expected to decline. Short - term observation is recommended [13]. Tin - Tin prices rebounded. Supply recovery is expected in the third and fourth quarters, but short - term supply is still tight. Demand is weak, and prices are expected to be weak and volatile [14]. Carbonate Lithium - Carbonate lithium prices fell. There is an expectation of supply - demand repair, but the sustainability of supply reduction is uncertain. Pay attention to market atmosphere changes [15]. Alumina - Alumina prices rose slightly. Supply may still be in an over - capacity situation. It is recommended to short at high prices [16][17]. Stainless Steel - Stainless steel prices rose slightly. Social inventory decreased, and the supply of some products is tight. The short - term market is expected to be optimistic [18]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - Casting aluminum alloy prices rose. The market is in the off - season, and the upside of prices is limited [19]. Black Building Materials Steel - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices rose. The market sentiment improved, but the overall fundamentals are still weak. Pay attention to demand recovery and cost support [21][22]. Iron Ore - Iron ore prices rose. Supply and demand changed, and prices are expected to fluctuate with downstream prices [23][24]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass prices may be volatile in the short - term, and the long - term trend depends on real estate policies. Soda ash prices are expected to be volatile, and it is recommended to wait for short - selling opportunities in the long - term [25][26]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon prices rose. Due to high - volatility and irregular price movements, it is recommended that investment positions wait and hedging positions choose opportunities [27]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices rose slightly but are expected to be weak due to supply over - capacity. Polysilicon prices are in high - level oscillation, affected by capacity policies and other factors [31][34]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - Rubber prices rebounded after a decline. There are different views on the market from bulls and bears. It is recommended to have a neutral - bullish view and operate quickly [36][40]. Crude Oil - Crude oil prices fell. There is an upward momentum, but the upside is limited by the off - season. A short - term target price of $70.4/barrel for WTI is given [41]. Methanol - Methanol prices rose. Supply pressure will increase, and demand is weak. The price is under pressure [42]. Urea - Urea prices rose. It is in a low - valuation and weak - supply - demand pattern, and it is recommended to pay attention to long - positions on dips [43]. Styrene - Styrene prices fell. The BZN spread may repair, and prices may follow the cost side after inventory reduction [44]. PVC - PVC prices rose. The supply is strong, and the demand is weak. It is recommended to wait and see [46]. Ethylene Glycol - EG prices rose. Supply and demand changed, and the inventory is expected to rise. The valuation may decline [47]. PTA - PTA prices fell. Supply may increase, and demand is about to end the off - season. It is recommended to follow PX and go long on dips [49]. Para - Xylene - PX prices fell. It is expected to continue de - stocking. It is recommended to follow crude oil and go long on dips [50]. Polyethylene PE - PE prices rose. The price is affected by cost and supply - demand. It is recommended to hold short - positions [51]. Polypropylene PP - PP prices rose. The cost side may dominate the market, and prices are expected to follow crude oil and be bullish [52]. Agricultural Products Hogs - Hog prices were stable. The market is affected by policies, and it is recommended to focus on spread opportunities [54]. Eggs - Egg prices mostly fell. The supply is large, and it is recommended to short on rebounds in the medium - term and reduce short - positions on dips in the short - term [55]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - US soybeans are in a low - valuation and supply - surplus state. Domestic soybean import costs may rise. It is recommended to go long on dips and do spread trading between soybean meal and rapeseed meal [56][57][58]. Oils - Palm oil exports and production data are provided. The oil market is supported by multiple factors but is also restricted by some factors. It is recommended to view it with oscillation [59][61]. Sugar - Sugar prices were weak and oscillated. With increasing imports and other factors, prices may continue to fall [62][63]. Cotton - Cotton prices were narrowly oscillated. The US cotton growth situation is good, and the market is bearish due to factors like weak consumption and un - settled trade agreements [64].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report The report comprehensively presents the overnight performance of the global financial market, including the trends of various commodities, macro - economic news, and the performance of different financial sectors. It also provides forecasts and analyses of multiple industries and markets, such as the oil market, metal market, and stock market. Summary by Directory Overnight Night - Market Trends - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand. The US crude oil main contract fell 1.69% to $65.17 per barrel, and the Brent crude oil main contract dropped 1.59% to $67.67 per barrel [2]. - International precious metal futures generally rose. COMEX gold futures climbed 0.25% to $3435.00 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures increased 1.36% to $37.84 per ounce [3]. - Most London base metals advanced. LME lead futures rose 0.84% to $1975.50 per ton, and LME aluminum futures gained 0.47% to $2565.00 per ton, while LME copper futures fell 0.54% to $9634.50 per ton [4]. - Domestic futures main contracts showed mixed results. Coking coal rose over 3%, coke increased over 1%, and rapeseed meal rose nearly 1%, while iron ore dropped over 0.5% [5]. Important Information Macroeconomic News - In July, China's service - sector PMI continued to expand. New business, new export business, and on - hand business were recorded at 53.3 (up 2.3 month - on - month), 51.2 (up 2.9 month - on - month), and 50.1 (down 1.6 month - on - month) respectively. The new business indicator's increase reached a new high this year [7]. - In the first half of 2025, the whole market added 410,000 new futures customers, a 2.5% increase year - on - year. By the end of June 2025, the total number of effective customers reached 2.61 million, a 12% year - on - year increase [9]. - EU officials stated that EU goods face a 15% tariff when entering the US, applicable to all goods except steel and aluminum [9]. - Seven Chinese departments jointly issued a guidance on financial support for new - type industrialization, aiming to provide high - quality financial services [9]. - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1,058,719,289 lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Capital Economics predicted that OPEC+ would take a break before lifting the new round of voluntary production cuts to avoid an oil market surplus and expected production to increase again from the second quarter of 2026 [13]. - The price of single - layer coated photovoltaic glass rose to 11 yuan per square meter, up 1 yuan month - on - month [14]. Metal Futures - Guinea's transitional president revoked the bauxite mining concession originally granted to a global aluminum company [16]. - In July 2025, China's primary aluminum output was 3.7776 million tons, up 2.36% year - on - year and 3.31% month - on - month [17]. - According to Western Mining's semi - annual report, its mined zinc output was 62,875 million tons, up 18.61% year - on - year, and mined lead output was 35,071 million tons, up 24.63% year - on - year [17]. Black - Series Futures - A coal mine in Linfen suspended production on August 1, with the resumption time undetermined [20]. - In July, the total steel export volume of 32 domestic ports was 11.3646 million tons, down 1.5% month - on - month [20]. - After the rain in Ordos ended on August 5, some coal mines resumed production, leading to tightened supply and increased demand, and coal prices were frequently adjusted upwards [20]. - From July 28 to August 3, the total iron ore inventory of seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 12.84 million tons, down 709,000 tons month - on - month [20]. Agricultural Product Futures - Last week, the domestic soybean oil mill operating rate remained high, soybean commercial inventory increased, and soybean meal inventory decreased slightly [23]. - Brazil's 2024/25 corn production forecast was raised to a record 134 million tons [23]. - On August 5, Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange announced a public consultation on amending the business rules for fresh apple futures [24]. - In July 2025, Muyuan sold 6.355 million commercial pigs, with sales revenue of 11.639 billion yuan [24]. Financial Market Finance - Regulatory authorities are cracking down on capital market fraud by punishing third - party companies that provide substantial fraud services for listed companies [28]. - On Tuesday, the A - share market rose, with the Shanghai Composite Index up 0.96% to 3617.6 points, and the market turnover reaching 1.62 trillion yuan [28]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 0.68% to 24,902.53 points, and the south - bound capital had a net purchase of HK$23.426 billion [28]. - As of August 5, 23 stocks had QFIIs in their top ten tradable shareholders' lists at the end of the second quarter, with a total market value of 3.737 billion yuan [29]. - In July, the number of newly - registered private equity securities funds reached 1298, a 18% increase month - on - month [29]. Industry - The 2025 World Robot Conference will be held on August 8, with over 100 new products to be launched [33]. - The 11th batch of national drug procurement is highly competitive, with 480 companies submitting application materials for 55 drugs [33]. - The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products issued an initiative to maintain the high - quality development of the photovoltaic industry's foreign trade [33]. - The Passenger Car Association raised the full - year sales forecast for 2025 to 24.35 million vehicles, a 6% increase year - on - year [34]. Overseas - The Trump administration plans to terminate the system initiated by Elon Musk that requires federal employees to report their weekly work results [38]. - The US trade deficit in goods and services in June decreased by 16% month - on - month to $60.2 billion [38]. - The US ISM non - manufacturing index in July dropped from 50.8 to 50.1, lower than the expected 51.5 [38]. - The Bank of Japan may further raise interest rates if the economy and inflation develop as expected [38]. International Stock Markets - US stocks closed lower, with the Dow down 0.14%, the S&P 500 down 0.49%, and the Nasdaq down 0.65% [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX up 0.37%, the French CAC40 down 0.14%, and the UK FTSE 100 up 0.16% [42]. - The assets of index ETFs linked to the MSCI global stock index have exceeded $2 trillion, with a growth rate of 17% since the beginning of 2025 [42]. Commodities - In July, the trading volume of China's futures market was 1.059 billion lots, and the trading value was 71.31 trillion yuan, up 48.89% and 36.03% year - on - year respectively [47]. - Oil prices declined due to OPEC's production increase and weak demand [47]. - International precious metal futures generally rose, with COMEX gold futures up 0.25% and COMEX silver futures up 1.36% [47]. Bonds - Domestic bank - bond yields were mostly stable, and treasury bond futures were mostly up, while credit bonds fluctuated narrowly [50]. - US bond yields mostly rose, with the 2 - year yield up 4.9 basis points to 3.720% [50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the US dollar closed at 7.1876 on Tuesday, down 110 basis points from the previous trading day [51]. - The Hong Kong Monetary Authority bought HK$6.429 billion and sold US dollars in the New York session on August 5 [52]. - The US dollar index rose 0.01% to 98.76, and most non - US currencies rose [52]. Upcoming Events - At 09:20, 309 billion yuan of reverse repurchases of the People's Bank of China will expire [55]. - At 12:30, the Reserve Bank of India will announce its interest rate decision [55]. - At 18:30, the Central Bank of Russia will release the minutes of its monetary policy meeting [55]. - At 20:00, DJI will officially launch its first sweeping robot [55].

Group 1 - In August, 42 brokerage firms released their "golden stocks" lists, recommending a total of 370 times across 286 A-shares, including 187 from the main board, 48 from the ChiNext, 50 from the Sci-Tech Innovation Board, and 1 from the Beijing Stock Exchange [1] - The most popular A-shares include Dongfang Zhiye, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Muyuan Foods, which were recommended 7 times, 5 times, and 5 times respectively [1] - A total of 182 A-shares saw an increase in recommendation counts compared to the previous month, with Wanhua Chemical, Dongfang Zhiye, and Luoyang Molybdenum experiencing the most significant increases of 4 times, 4 times, and 3 times respectively [1] Group 2 - Nineteen industries have been recommended more than 10 times, with the most favored sectors being electronic devices, instruments and components, metals, non-metals and mining, and chemicals, receiving 39, 38, and 34 recommendations respectively [1]